The Saskatchewan Labour MarketThe Saskatchewan Labour Market

Presentation to:Yorkton Employer SeminarFebruary 12, 2004Yorkton, Saskatchewan

Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor444 19th AvenueRegina, SaskatchewanS4N 1H1Tel: 306-522-5515Fax: 306-522-5838Email: sasktrends@sasktel.netInternet: www.sasktrends.ca

2Feb 11, 2004

ContentsContents

� General Economic Overview– Population– Gross Domestic Product– Other Key Economic Indicators

� Definition of Labour Market Terms and Concepts� Employment - characteristics of jobs and persons working in them

– Hours of work– Industry– Category– Age and gender– Education level– Aboriginal identity– Sub-provincial regions

� The East Central Economic Region� Socioeconomic characteristics of those not employed� Reports re: Labour Market Information

3Feb 11, 2004

PopulationPopulation

� Saskatchewan’spopulation has been ator near 1 million for thepast 15 years.

� In fact, the populationhas fluctuated nearthis psychologicalfigure since the late1920s.

� An increase in out-migration and decliningin-migration led toannual populationdeclines in the late1990s.

970,000

980,000

990,000

1,000,000

1,010,000

1,020,000

1,030,000

1,040,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

4Feb 11, 2004

Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product

� The Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) is themost widely usedmeasure of overalleconomic activity.

� The GDP measures thevalue of goods andservices produced in theeconomy. Adjusted forinflation, it is called the“real GDP”.

� A decline in real GDP isthe technical definitionof a recession. Theprovincial economy was inrecession in 2001 and2002.

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003est

CanadaSaskatchewan

annual increase in real GDP

5Feb 11, 2004

Resources/International TradeResources/International TradeValue of Mineral Production

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

value of oil/gas andmineral production$ billions

Value of International Merchandise Trade

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

international merchandise trade ($ billions)

6Feb 11, 2004

Farm Receipts and IncomeFarm Receipts and Income

� Drought, poor grainprices, and the BSEcase have led todeclining cash receiptsin 2002 and 2003.

� Net cash income hasbeen supported bygovernment transferpayments since 2000as it was in the last1980s and early 1990s.

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003est

$ billions

Farm cash receipts

Farm cash receiptsexcluding gov't transfers

expenses

acutal net cash income

7Feb 11, 2004

Consumer SpendingConsumer Spending

� Economic growth in2002 and 2003 hasbeen better thanexpected becauseconsumer spending isstrong.

� Motor vehicle sales, inparticular, havegenerated increases inretail spending wellabove the rate ofinflation.

� Other indicators ofconsumer confidencesuch as housing startsare also strong.

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

retail sales$ billions

actual

adjustedfor inflation

(constant 1992 dollars)

8Feb 11, 2004

EmploymentEmployment

� With the exception ofthe unprecedented dropin 2001, employment hasgrown at a reasonablepace in the past decade.

� From 1992 to 2000,employment grew at anaverage annual rate of1% per year.

� From 2000 to 2003,there has been virtuallyno change inemployment; two yearswere required torecover the 13,000 jobslost in 2001.

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

employment in thousands

1992 to 2000Average annualgrowth of 1.0%

2000 to 2003:0.1%

Employment and the Labour ForceEmployment and the Labour Force

10Feb 11, 2004

DefinitionsDefinitions

� The labour market data is all based on atelephone survey of individuals - theLabour Force Survey (LFS) - conductedmonthly by Statistics Canada.Approximately 5,000 Sask residentstake part in the LFS every month.

� The survey excludes those who live onIndian Reserves.

� Statistics Canada classifies all persons15 years of age or older into one ofthree categories:

– employed: working full-time or part-time, as a paid worker or self-employed

– unemployed: not working but activelyseeking employment

– not in the labour force: everybodyelse

� About one half of those “not in thelabour force” are retired seniors.

Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003

Unemployed29,000

Employed487,000

Not in the labour force

240,000

11Feb 11, 2004

Inter-provincial ComparisonsInter-provincial Comparisons

� Saskatchewan’semployment growth rateof 1.0% from 1992 to2000 was below thenational average but stillrespectable.

� The 0.1% average annualincrease since 2000 isthe lowest in Canada.

Average Annual Employment Increase

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Canada

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003

12Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of Jobs - Hours of WorkCharacteristics of Jobs - Hours of Work

� In 2003, 23% of personsemployed were working parttime.

� In the early period - 1992 to2000 - full time jobs werereplacing part time ones.Since 2000, the increase hasbeen in part time jobs.

� Saskatchewan has thehighest proportion of multiplejob holders (persons with twoor more jobs simultaneously)in Canada but the incidence isdeclining. In 2003, 8% of theemployed had two or morejobs.

Average Annual Employment Increase

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

Full time

Part time

Multiple jobholders

1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003

13Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of Jobs - IndustryCharacteristics of Jobs - Industry

� In effect, employment inthe province increaseswhen the non-agriculturalsector can absorb theongoing loss of agriculturejobs. Employment inagriculture accounted for10% of the total in 2003compared with 18% in1993.

� Employment in non-agricultural industrygroups increased by 1.8%per year from 1992 to2000 and 1.3% per yearfrom 2000 to 2003.

� Note that the industry isbased on the “main job”for multiple job holders.

Employment by Industry of "Main" Job

0

50

100

350

400

450

500

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

thousands

agriculture

non-agriculture

14Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture IndustriesCharacteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture Industries

Average Annual Employment Change

-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Transportation, warehousing

Wholesale and retail trade

Finance, insurance, real estate

Professional, technical, business services

Health and social services

Education services

Accommodation and food

Information, culture, recreation

Other services

Public administration

1992 to 20002000 to 2003

15Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of the Employed - GenderCharacteristics of the Employed - Gender

� Employment amongwomen is increasingmore quickly than amongmen.

� Part (but not all) of thereason is the nature ofthe industry growth.That is, the fastestgrowing sectors arethose where women aremore likely to beemployed, e.g.

– health and socialservices

– education– information, culture,

recreation

Employment by Gender

175

200

225

250

275

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

thousands

16Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of the Employed - AgeCharacteristics of the Employed - Age

� In the past ten to fifteenyears, the bulge in thepopulation called the “babyboom” generation has movedfrom their forties to theirearly fifties.

� The growth in employmentamong those 40 to 54 is anatural consequence of theaging of the population.The growth among those 55and older in the past threeyears is because of higherparticipation in the labourforce.

Average Annual Employment Increase

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

15 to 24

25 to 39

40 to 54

55 plus

1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003

17Feb 11, 2004

Characteristics of the Employed - Education LevelCharacteristics of the Employed - Education Level

� All of the employmentgrowth since 1990 hasbeen among those with apost-secondaryeducation.

� In 2002, over 85% ofthose 25 to 64 and with apost-secondary educationwere employed. Thiscompares with 61% ofthose with less thanGrade 12.

Employment: 25 to 64 Years of Age

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Post secondary graduates

Grade 12, some post-secondary

Less than grade 12

thousands

18Feb 11, 2004

Employment Rates, Aboriginal Population in 2001Employment Rates, Aboriginal Population in 2001

� The LFS doesn’t measureAboriginal identity; thesefigures are from the2001 census.

� The employment rate isthe percentage of thepopulation that wasemployed in June 2001.

� There is a sizable gap inemployment rates,particularly on Reserveand particularly amongyoung people.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Aboriginal on Reserve

Aboriginal off Reserve

Non-Aboriginal population

Aboriginal on Reserve

Aboriginal off Reserve

Non-Aboriginal population

Aboriginal on Reserve

Aboriginal off Reserve

Non-Aboriginal population

Aboriginal on Reserve

Aboriginal off Reserve

Non-Aboriginal population

15 to

24

25 to

34

35 to

44

45 &

old

er

employment rate

Employment by RegionEmployment by Region

20Feb 11, 2004

West Central

SouthwestSoutheast

East Central

North/Far North

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

Saskatchewan’s Economic RegionsSaskatchewan’s Economic Regions

� For the purposes ofthe LFS, theprovince is dividedinto five rural andtwo urban “economicregions”.

21Feb 11, 2004

Regina Census Metropolitan AreaRegina Census Metropolitan Area

West Central

SouthwestSoutheast

East Central

North/Far North

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

Regina CMA Employment in Thousands

92949698

100102104106108110

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

22Feb 11, 2004

Saskatoon Census Metropolitan AreaSaskatoon Census Metropolitan Area

West Central

SouthwestSoutheast

East Central

North/Far North

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

Saskatoon CMA Employment in Thousands

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

23Feb 11, 2004

Southeast Economic RegionSoutheast Economic Region

West Central

SouthwestSoutheast

East Central

North/Far North

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

Southeast Employment in Thousands

353637383940414243

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

24Feb 11, 2004

East Central Economic RegionEast Central Economic Region

West Central

SouthwestSoutheast

East Central

North/Far North

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

East Central Employment in Thousands

3536373839404142434445

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

25Feb 11, 2004

Employment OutlookEmployment Outlook

� The provincial economy can be viewed as having four “drivers”.– Consumers are the largest driver but consumer spending is expected to

slow after several years of increasing consumer debt.– The public sector is in a period of restraint for the short term as

expenditures exceed revenues at both the provincial and municipal levels.– The private sector is poised for a recovery after several years of below-

average performance.– The national and international marketplace is volatile because of the US

election and the rising Canadian dollar.� Based on this combination of factors, economic growth in 2004 and

2005 will probably be below average. Employment growth in 2004 isforecast at less than 1%.

� Over the long term, the province’s prospects are bright although theretiring baby boomers will put pressure on the labour market. Skilledworkers will be increasingly hard to come by; more new entrants tothe labour market will be Aboriginal.

East Central Economic RegionEast Central Economic Region

27Feb 11, 2004

Regional CharacteristicsRegional Characteristics

Compared with other rural areasin 2001, that is excluding theRegina and Saskatoon CMAs, theEast Central region’s population isdifferent in a number of ways.

– The population is concentratedin older age groups.

– People are less likely to live in alarge urban centre, i.e. theregion is more “rural”.

– A high proportion of dwellings(87%) are single detachedhouses and 77% are without amortgage.

– There are relatively few (12%)lone parent families.

– The population is stable - 71%did not change their addressfrom 1996 to 2001.

Age Distribution in 2001

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 & older

Rural* Saskatchewan

East Central Region

* Saskatchewan population not including Regina and Saskatoon CMAs

28Feb 11, 2004

Regional Characteristics (continued)Regional Characteristics (continued)

– The Aboriginal population is 11%of the total compared with 17%in other rural areas.

– The region’s immigrantpopulation (3.2% of the total)are more likely to have come toCanada before 1961 - 56% didso.

– Polish and Ukrainian ancestryare much more common.

– Educational attainment levelsare below average.

– Average farm size is 1,005 acrescompared with 1,283 in otherrural areas. They are alsosmaller in terms ofcapitalization and revenue.

– Employment growth in theservice sector, private sectorservices in particular, has laggedbehind the provincial average.

Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Agriculture/forestry

Other primary

Manufacturing/construction

Retail/wholesale trade

Public sector services

Accomodation and foodservices

Other private sectorservices

East CentralRegion

Rural*Saskatchewan

* provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs

29Feb 11, 2004

Regional Characteristics (continued)Regional Characteristics (continued)

– Household income in 2000was 89% of the ruralaverage compared with92% in 1990.

– Individual incomes were92% of the rural averagein 2000.

– 21% of income was fromgovernment transferscompared with 18%provincially.

– Relatively few householdshad incomes in excess of$60,000 in 2000 - 20½%compared with 26%.

Household Incomes in 2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under$10,000

$20,000-$29,999

$40,000-$49,999

$60,000-$69,999

$80,000-$89,999

$100,000and over

Rural* SaskatchewanEast Central Region

% of households

* provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs

30Feb 11, 2004

Fort Qu'Appelle

Wynyard

Kamsack

CanoraFoam Lake

Bredenbury

Esterhazy

Ituna

Melville

Yorkton

Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001(Provincial Average = 2%)

4% or more-4% to +3.9%

-10% to -3.9%Declined more than 10%

Employment Growth by RM, 1991 to 2001Employment Growth by RM, 1991 to 2001

Characteristics of those “Not Employed”Characteristics of those “Not Employed”

32Feb 11, 2004

DefinitionsDefinitions

� The labour market data is all based on atelephone survey of individuals - theLabour Force Survey (LFS) - conductedmonthly by Statistics Canada.Approximately 5,000 Sask residentstake part in the LFS every month.

� The survey excludes those who live onIndian Reserves.

� Statistics Canada classifies all persons15 years of age or older into one ofthree categories:

– employed: working full-time or part-time, as a paid worker or self-employed

– unemployed: not working but activelyseeking employment

– not in the labour force: everybodyelse

� About one half of those “not in thelabour force” are retired seniors.

Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003

Unemployed29,000

Employed487,000

Not in the labour force

240,000

33Feb 11, 2004

Not Employed: Socioeconomic CharacteristicsNot Employed: Socioeconomic Characteristics

� The characteristics of the 120,300 Sask residents who were, in 2002,– in the 20 to 64 age group and– were not working

were obtained from LFS data. (Remember that the LFS doesn’t includethe Reserve population.)

� Some key features are:– 62% were women;– 28% were 20 to 29 years of age; 29% were 55 or older;– 15% were attending school;– 48% live in households where no one is employed;– 33% had less than grade 12 and two thirds of these were 35 or older;– 19% were “unemployed”, that is, actively seeking employment;– 37% had worked in the past year, 52% had worked but not for at least a

year, 11% had never had a job; and– about one half of those who worked in the past year were laid off, the rest

left voluntarily.

34Feb 11, 2004

Family Status of those Not Employed, 2002Family Status of those Not Employed, 2002

� One quarter to a third ofthe family situationsinvolve young childrenand a parent that isprobably staying at hometo look after them.

� Another quarter seem tobe retirees and womenwho have never been inthe labour force.

� Many of the remainingpotential employees areyoung adults, some ofwhom are going to school.

Unattached individuals

17%

Women in families with

children under 18

17%

Women where husband is

employed, no young children

13%

Men in families with wife employed

10%

Neither employed, 50

or older15%

Lone parents under 50

7%

All others21%

35Feb 11, 2004

Labour Market StudiesLabour Market Studies

� The Labour Market Trends report mentioned in the binders iscurrently being updated. This report projects a declining non-Aboriginal labour force as the baby boomers retire.

� Research for the Public Service Commission and the CrownInvestment Corporation documents the aging of public sectoremployees.

� The Regional Employment Trends in Saskatchewan for 2003 may beupdated for 2004.

� Regional profiles (using census data) for the DCRE regions andregional college regions are being prepared.