The Science of Climate Change

J.C. Moore PhD

Retired Physical Chemist

JCMooreonline.com

Earth’s Energy Balance

CO2 and Climate

• Arrhenius (1897) – Halving CO2 will lead to an ice age, doubling it will warm Earth by 4 to 7oC

• G.N. Plass (1956) - Doubling the amount of CO2 will raise Earth’s temperature by 3 to 4 oC

• J.T. Kiehl (1997) - Under Clear Skies, CO2 accounts for 26% of the Greenhouse Effect

• A. Lacis (2010) – Greenhouse gases account for 25% of the Greenhouse Effect, CO2 is the “Control Knob” for the Earth’s Temperature

CO2 for Last 1000 Years

NASA Data

Last Decade Has Been Warmest in Last 130 Years New Record set in 2014

Arctic Ice

Ice Volume Is More Important

Sea Level Rise

Ocean Acidification

• We emit 30 billion tons of CO2 annually

• The oceans takes up about 40%

• CO2 in water makes carbonic acid

• Oceans have become >20% more acidic

• It is harder for phytoplankton, coral, and crustaceans to make shells

• Phytoplankton support ocean life as they convert CO2 to O2

CO2 and Plants

• Plants require water, CO2, nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium, sunlight, and trace elements

• CO2 is seldom the limiting agent in plant growth• Greenhouses add CO2 just to replace depleted

CO2• Over-fertilizing, over-watering, or putting a

shade plant in bright sun will harm the plant• More CO2 is not necessarily better in most

cases

Increasing CO2 and Plants

• Some plants will thrive – but not all

• Ancient plant have adapted to varying levels of 180 ppm to 1000+ ppm

• Modern plants have adapted to ~ 280 ppm

• Wild plants will adapt faster - Kudzu, Poison Ivy, Ragweed, Red Rice, Weeds

Agricultural Plants

• Wheat grown at higher CO2 levels produce more grains but smaller grains - lower in nitrogen

• Wheat pasture is unaffected by higher CO2 levels if sufficient nitrogen is available

• Otherwise, higher CO2 leads to lower nitrogen uptake and poorer pasture

• Rice benefits from higher CO2 levels but produces less at higher temperatures

• Rice production is declining in some parts of the world – it is a staple for > 50% of world

• Higher temperatures and CO2 levels are not necessarily better for plants and may be detrimental

Temperature and Plants

• Tomatoes will not set blossoms if night temperatures are above 70 0F

• Fruit trees and other plants may blossom early – harmed by later freezes

• Some fruit varieties require a number of days below freezing to be productive

• Pests such as fleas, ticks, spider mites, mosquitoes, squash bugs, pine borers… thrive

• Increase in pine borer populations have killed 30 billion trees

• Many diseases thrive at higher temperatures

Future Food Production

Weather

• “All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be….  ”  – Kevin Trenberth

• Climate change may not be the “cause” of a weather event, but it increases the probability that it will be more severe

• Warmer temperatures increase both the rate of evaporation and amount of moisture in the air.

• This has doubled the incidence of severe weather, floods, droughts, and wildfires.

Munich Re Data

Scientific Consensus

• The American Chemical Society statement: “Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles. There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. “

• Over 97% of the active climate scientists agree

• All of the World’s major science societies have adopted similar statements.

Second Opinion

Coal Use

Coal

• Coal is 65 to 95% carbon

• Pollutants produced are mercury,

• cadmium, arsenic, lead,

• sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, CO2,

• particulates, and radioactive isotopes of radon.

Coal

• Impurities from coal combustion and the coal ash end up in the air and water

• Toxic levels of mercury are now found in fish, even where natural sources are not available

• We are now emitting 150 times as much CO2 as all the worlds volcanoes

• Cutting Coal Use Is Imperative

Actions

• Conservation

• New Technology

• IPCC – Switch to Renewables ASAP

• Regulation

• Cap and Trade

• Carbon Tax

• Carbon Dividend

Republican Leaders

• Teddy Roosevelt – Greatly expanded National Park System

• Dwight Eisenhower -set aside 9 million acres as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - one of the most pristine wilderness areas in the United States

• Richard Nixon - created the EPA - “Clean air, clean water, open spaces — these should once again be the birthright of every American.” “The price of economic growth need not and will not be deterioration in the quality of our lives and our surroundings.”

• Barry Goldwater, “Mr. Conservative”,-“While I am a great believer in the free enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right of our people to live in a clean and pollution-free environment.”

• Ronald Reagan – Signed Montreal Protocol reducing CFC’s, Used cap-and- trade to reduce acid rain blowing into Canada- at less cost than even the government predicted

• John McCain – Proposed a sound energy policy based on good stewardship, sound science, and reasonableness