The Second International Seville Future-oriented Technology Analysis Seminar

Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts

Mu RongpingInstitute of Policy and Management, Chine

se Academy of Sciences 2006-9-29

Outline

Introduction

Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Methodology for Technology Foresight

Major Result of Delphi Survey

Impact of the Research on Decision-making

Introduction

National Goals of China

well-off society in 2020

Quadruple GDP of the year 2000 by 2020

Industrialization

Innovation-Driven Country

Improve the capability of innovation

Environment-friendly society

Resource-conserving society

Introduction

How to achieve the national goals?

Improve capabilities

Technological capability

Innovation capability

Priority setting

To identify the technology fields with priority

To identify the clustering technologies with priority

IntroductionThe purposes of the “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”

To explore a set of systematical methods for technology foresight;

To build the scenarios for China development in 2020 so as to identify technology demands;

To conduct the Delphi Survey so as to set the priority of technologies;

To establish the interactive platform for government-industry-university-academia;

To foster the foresight culture in China.

Outline

Introduction

Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Methodology for Technology Foresight

Major Result of Delphi Survey

Impact of the Research on Decision-making

Framework International Comparison

of the Technology Foresight Activities

Feasibility Study of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Scheme for Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Scheme Simulation

Short-term Technology Forecasting

(within 5 years)

Long-term Technology Foresight based on

Delphi Survey

Schem

e Revision

Framework

Selecting Critical Technologies

Making Related Policies

International Comparison

Statistics and Analyses

Selecting &

Tracking

Methods

Forecasting,Data-mining

Comparing the Results of Forecasting and Delphi Survey

Preparing Stage

Implementing Stage

MakingScheme

SelectingParticipants

ChoosingTopics

Compiling Questionnaires

The first -round survey

The second -round survey

The Scenario Building: identification for national demand for science and technology

Outline

Introduction

Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Methodology for Technology Foresight

Major Result of Delphi Survey

Impact of the Research on Decision-making

MethodologiesScenario Building

Visions of 2020 in China

The Demand of Technology in the Comprehensive Well-off Society

Globalization Society Industrialization Society

Information Society Urbanization Society

Consumption Society Circulation Society

MethodologiesGeneration of the Technology Topics

scenario building－－ The APEC Center for Technology Foresight ． DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-genomic Era [M] ． Published by: the APEC technology foresight center, national science and technology development agency ． Bangkok ： Thailand ， 2003 ： 136.

nomination by experts

rolling revision technology topics of previous round Delphi Survey

－－ NISTEP REPORT No. 71 ． The Seventh Technology Foresight—Future Technology in Japan toward the Year 2030 (Section 2: pp.121~261)[Z] ． Tokyo July 2001 ： 135.

MethodologiesGeneration of the Technology Topics

GR

G

E G F

EG

SF 1

EG

SF 2

EG

SF i

EG

SF

n

. . . . . . . . . . . .

p rim al to p ic s

su ppo rt

prim

al to

pics

p rim al to p ic s

d is s c us s and exam ine

m ature to p ic s

c yc le d in s e ve ral t im e s

Note:

EGF= Expert Group of Field

EGSF= Expert Groups for Sub-Field

MethodologiesDelphi Survey: field

ICT and Electronics

Energy Materials

Resources and Environment

Space

manufacture

Biology and Medicine

Chemistry and chemical technology

12 3

4

5

6

7

8

Delphi: Divide Sub-fields

ICT and Electronics

1. Computer

2. Man-machine conversation and intelligent dispose3. Software

6. micro-electronics, photoelectron and MEMS

7. Display and store of information

9. network

10. Security technology of information

11. Broadcast and television12. Applications of IT

4. Communication technology

5. Bio-Informatics

8. Information retrieval and sensors

Methodologies

Delphi: Divide Sub-fields

Energy

1. Coal, petroleum and natural gas

4. Electric power

6. Heat energy and mechanical energy

2. Renewable Energy

3. Nuclear energy

5. Hydrogen energy

Methodologies

Delphi: Divide Sub-fields

Materials

1. Macromolecule materials

4. Functional materials

6. Nano materials

2. Metal materials

3. Inorganic materials and Ceramic materials

5. Photoelectron materials

Methodologies

Delphi: Divide Sub-fields

Biology and Medicine

1. Platform technology

2. Measurement for bio-technique and bionimetic technology

5. Prevention and therapy disease

7. Stem-cell and regenerative medicine

8. Cognition and human behavior science

3. The process technology of biology catalyze and transform4. Agriculture and environment

6. Discover and development of new medicines

Methodologies

Generation of the Technology Topics: Stages

elucidation widespread usepractical usedevelopment

Methodologies

Delphi Survey: Questionnaire

Methodologies

Im p o rtance

T o p ics

fo r th e gro w th o f eco n o m y

fo r th e im p ro vem en t o f life q u a lity

fo r th e secu rity o f C h in a

F easib ilityF easib ility in tech n o lo gy rea liza tio n

P o ssib ility o f th e tech n o lo gy accep ted b y m arke t

D ifficu lty o f rea liza t io n

R estric ted b y "p o licy/ stan d ard / law "

R estric ted b y "h u m an reso u rce"

R estric ted b y "research in frastru c tu re"

R estric ted b y "research fu n d "

T he t im e o f rea liza t io n

C ap ab ility a t p re sen tIn te rn a tio n a l lead in g sta tu s

E q u al to th e in te rn a tio n a l leve l

F a lls b eh in d to th e in te rn a tio n a l leve l

b efo re 2 0 1 0

b e tw een t 2 0 1 1 an d 2 0 2 0

u n fo reseen

afte r 2 0 2 1

L ead ing co u ntry/a reas

U S A

E U

R u ssia

Jap an

O th ers

----- contribution to economy increase

----- improve of quality of life

----- contribute to the security system

124

124

321

332211

TTT

TITITII

ImportanceDegree of familiar

Very important Important Important in somewhat unimportant Total

High N11 N12 N13 N14 T1

Medium N21 N22 N23 N24 T2

Low N31 N32 N33 N34 T3

Don’t konw N41 N42 N43 N44 T4

Methodologies

Three importance indexes

Integrate three importance index

222222int 000 SQESQEegrate IIIIIII ＝）－（）－（）－（＝

Among them:

EI

QI

SI

:Index of “contribution to economy increase”

:Index of “improve the quality of life”

:Index of “contribute to the security system”

Methodologies

Forecasted realization time of the topics:

Among them:

Q1 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 25th percentile of all responses after they were arranged in chronological order from the earliest to the latest realization time.

M : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 50th percentile.

Q2 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 75th percentile.

Methodologies

iR

iT

)B1)(T1(R iii

Feasibility of the topics realization :

Among them:

: feasibility of the topics realization

iB

: infeasibility in technology realization

: infeasibility in market realization

Methodologies

LHJJLX

JJLX

RRR

RRRI

RI

LXR

JJR

LHR

: Index of research level of the topics in China

: the number of experts who selected “leader”

: the number of experts who selected “international level”

: the number of experts who selected “get behind”

Research level index of the topics in China :

Among them:

Methodologies

Outline

Introduction

Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Methodology for Technology foresight

Major Result of Delphi Survey

Impact of the Research on Decision-making

Forecasted Realization Time of Technology

Results

73

18

3235

76

6055

33

2016 15

2014

3 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

forecasted realization time

num

ber

of to

pics

Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance

Results

(1) The solar cell will be developed successfully, which transfer efficiency reaches as high as 50%;

(2) The new technology about biological energy will be developed successfully, which can continuous produce ethanol with straw, biological diesel, hydrocarbon compound and so on;

(3) The metal material obtains the large-scale use, which has nature of high intensity and light weight;

(4) The most security and cheapest control technologies of large-scale electrical network obtains the widespread use;

(5) The technologies about biology processing and mining for crude oil develop successfully;

Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance

Results

(6) The anti-viral medicine with highly efficiency applies to clinical medicine widely;

(7) The technologies about biochemistry, immunity, and gene etc. applies to food quarantine widely;

(8) The important character gene which decide the yield, quality and resistance of crops obtains comprehensive annotation and get practical use with biological technology;

(9) The 10nm processing technology obtains widespread use in the scale production, and integration rate of the integrated circuit achieves the 1000G transistor;

(10) The defense and monitoring system of harmful biology will be established for public security.

Outline

Introduction

Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China

Methodology for Technology foresight

Major Result of Delphi Survey

Impact of the Research on Decision-making

Impacts

The Impact on the Scientific Community

The experts network

--- 60 top scientists from four research fields

--- more than 320 scientists from 32 sub-fields

“Technology Demands from the Construction of Well off Society”

--- 60 top social scientists to participate in the forum

Impacts

The Impact on Decision-making

The strategic study of med-and long term plan for science and technology development

The mid-and long term plan for science and technology development of CAS

President Hu Jingtao mentioned to strengthen the technology foresight in his speech at the annual congress of academicians of the CAS and CAE in June 2004

the Ministry of Education, Shanghai and Beijing Municipality have used the results of Delphi survey

Impacts

The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology

Impacts

The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology

The media such as the Science Times always pays attention to the study;

The Journal of High-Technology & Industrialization has serialized the results of “the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”, and the interviews of research group;

More than 574,000 websites concerning “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China” (in Chinese) could be easily found with the search engine “google”;

Xinhua News Agency has also reported some results of the “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”, which were cited by many other medias.

Some readers even urge us to publish simplified version so as to ease the public understanding.

Contact to the speaker:

Name: Mu Rongping Tel: +8610 6254 2618 Fax: +8610 6254 2619 E-mail: mrp@casipm.ac.cn Address: Zhongguancun Donglu NO. 55, Beijing, P.R. China Postcode: 100080 Website: www.casipm.ac.cn