The Skills Mismatch: the biggest problem facing the next Government

Lord Baker of Dorking CH

Sunday Times Festival of Education, Wellington College20th June 2014

We know the problem:

In 2013, the top two shortages for jobs worldwide were for skilled trades workers and engineers.

Global Talent Shortage Survey, Manpower Group

The economy is changing

Science

, engin

eering a

nd tech

nolog...

Science

, engin

eering a

nd tech

nology t..

.

Skille

d agricu

lture

L3

Skille

d metal, e

lectrica

l, electr

o...

Skille

d constr

uction L3

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Net growth in job numbers, 2010-20 (thousands)

An even bigger story: the baby boomers are retiring

SET pro

fessionals

SET te

chnici

ans (Le

vel 4

)

Agricu

lture

(Leve

l 3)

Metal/e

lectrica

l (L 3)

Constructi

on (L 3)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Replacement demandNet growth

(Thousands)

Huge numbers of people will be needed by 2020

• Between 2012 and 2020, we need –– 830,000 SET professionals (degree level)– 450,000 SET technicians (levels 3 and 4)

• SET = science, engineering and technology• Figures include growth + replacement demand (mainly to

replace baby boomers planning to retire)

But supply won’t meet demand• Demand for science, engineering and

technology graduates: 104,000 per year between 2012 and 2020

• Number of new graduates taking UK jobs in SET occupations: 64,000 per year

• Shortfall: 40,000 graduates per year

UNIVERSITIES

Higher education has grown rapidly – but not

in all subjects

Computer science

Engineering/technology

Physical sciences

Creative arts/design

Business/admin

Humanities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

% Increase in first degrees 2002-12

Percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of degree

Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into Employment, Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit

Employment in retail, catering, waiting and bar jobs six months after completing a first degree in 2012

AGCAS and HECSU (2013), What Do Graduates Do?http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf

   

Area of study

 Percentage of

graduatesin work who had retail, catering,

waiting and bar jobs 

Fine Arts 29.0Media Studies 26.7Performing Arts 23.5Design 23.1Sociology 22.7Physical and Geographical Sciences

22.1

History 21.1English 21.4Biology 20.8Law 19.8Psychology 18.9Geography 18.8

Sports Science 17.4Marketing 15.9Politics 15.4Languages 15.2All employed graduates 13.7Business and Management Studies

13.7

Chemistry 13.1Finance and Accountancy 11.3Computer Science and IT 10.5Maths 9.3Physics 9.0Electrical and Electronic Engineering

8.8

Economics 7.9Architecture and Building 7.9Mechanical Engineering 5.6Civil Engineering 4.7

Over the last 20 years, there has been a steady erosion of laboratory skills taught in school science.

Gatsby Charitable Foundation

SCHOOLS

The development of D & T in the UK has seen a move away from a skills-focused curriculum to a knowledge-focused one.

Mike Martin and Gwyneth Owen-Jackson: Is design and technology about making or knowing?

Design and Technology GCSE: only one student in three takes a high-tech option

25%

21%

18%

13%

4%2%

16%

GCSE Design and Technology Entries, 2013

Resistant materialsFood technologyGraphic productsTextiles technologyElectronic productsSystems and controlOther

But Design and Technology GCSE is taken by only one student in three

Took any GCSE Took D&T0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2013 entries

Therefore the proportion of all students taking high-tech options is…

• Resistant Materials: 8.4%• Electronic Products: 1.4%• Systems and Control: 0.6%

• In Austria, technical and vocational education starts at 14.

• In England, most technical and vocational education starts at 16 – two years behind.

FURTHER EDUCATION

Other countries value vocational education more highly …

Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0

102030405060708090

% young people on vocational courses

…and have lower youth unemployment

Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% of under 25s who are unemployed

The connection is obvious

Hungary UK

Denmark

German

y

Netherla

nds

Austria

0

20

40

60

80

% young people on vocational courses% youth un-employment

Number of 16-24s starting

apprenticeships in 2011/12

% change since 2010/11

Business, admin and the law 80,320 14.5%

Retail and commercial enterprise 63,670 7.6%

Health, public services and care 49,910 10.5%

Engineering and manufacturing 38,100 6.8%

Percentage of each age group participating in apprenticeships at the end of 2012

We need new specialist

institutions“Smaller specialist units, including

University Technical Colleges, should be created with stronger linksto business, commerce and industry.”

Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Chief InspectorUnseen Children, speech, 20 June 2013

New pathways:University Technical

Colleges

The 50 approved

UTCs

Some employers partnering with UTCs

Universities partnering with UTCs

New pathways:Career Colleges

Career Colleges• Established by further education colleges subjects

linked to labour market – hospitality, catering, tourism, financial science, digital graphic art.

• Employers:• partners in designing and delivering the curriculum• 40% of career college board members

• Progression to apprenticeships, higher education and employment

• Two pioneering Career Colleges opening in September 2014 in Bootle and Oldham.

New institutions will make a huge difference

– but they are not enough on their own.

Every school should have a link with engineering and manufacturing.

My recommendations• Get in touch with your local school. Don’t take “no”

for an answer.

• Rally behind a smaller number of big initiatives in schools.

• Support teachers, especially in Design and Technology.

• Get a 3D printer into every school.

A FINAL THOUGHT

A target for all schools:

NO NEETS

So support UTCs!