© Eicke R. Weber
Eicke R. Weber
Vice President, International Solar Energy Society ISESProv. Chair, European Solar Manufacturers Council ESMCDirector emer., Fraunhofer Institute forSolar Energy Systems ISE (2006-‘16)
8th Indo-German Energy Forum
New Delhi, India, November 1, 2019
Graphic: Primolo
THE SOLAR DISRUPTIONHAS JUST BEGUN!
2
FridaysforFuture: Greta Thunberg started a global movementto act quickly to avoid catastrophic climate change!
Source: Eicke R. Weber, Berlin 190329
3
Global Growth of PV Installations 1992-2017
Sou
rce:
Wik
iped
ia.,
acc
esse
d M
ay 2
0, 2
01
8
From 0.1 MW 1992 to 400 GW 2017: CAGR of 33%!
4
Global Cumulative PV installation until 2017 (includes off-grid)
CAGR:Compound Annual Growth Rate2010-2017: 33% p.a.!
5
Global Cumulative PV installation until 2016 (includes off-grid)
6
Learning Rate:Each doubling of globally installed capacity results in price reduction of 24%!
- More than a factor of 10 in 20 years!
Solar Electricity today:5 - 8 ct/kWh in Germany½ in sun-rich countries!
Price-Experience Curve of Photovoltaics since 1980Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies
- Driven by Innovation and Market Growth!
7
Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende
Levelized cost of electricitySolar power will rapidly become the lowest-cost form of electricity in many regions of the world!
2017: already below 2 ct/kWh in KSA!!
8
Produktion 2013 (GWp)
Thin film 3.2
Mono-Si 12.6
Multi-Si 19.2
Ribbon-Si 0
Data: Navigant Consulting and IHS; since 2012: estimation from different sources. Graph: PSE AG 2014
Global PV Production Technologies since 1980
Thin Film 4,9 GW (6%)
Multi-Si 57,5 GW (70%)
Mono-Si 20,2 GW (24%)
Production 2016 (GWp)
9
Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolioc-Si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product!
material quality
◼ diffusion length◼ base conductivity
device quality
◼ passivation of surfaces◼ low series resistance◼ light confinement
cell structures
◼ PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell
◼ MWT: Metal Wrap Through◼ IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back
Contact – Back Junction◼ HJT: Hetero Junction Technology
Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009
material quality
module efficiency
Industry
Standard
IBC-BJHJT
PERC
MWT-PERC
20%
19%
18%
17%16%
15%14%
21%
device quality
BC-HJT
10
Advanced c-Si PV Cell Technologies
Passivated Emitter and RearPERC1
Metal Wrap-Through MWT-PERC2
2Dross et al., Proc. 4th WCPEC, 2006, pp. 1291-4
1Blakers et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 55, pp. 1363-5, 1989
Heterojunction on Intrinsic layerHIT3
Interdigitated Back Contact/JunctionIBC-BJ4
Passivating Layer Local Contacts
Metal Wrap Through ContactLocal Contacts
Lightly Doped Front Diffusion Texture+passivation Layer
3 Sanyo/Panasonic 4 Sunpower
Passivating Layer
11
12
Floating PV: Harvesting Solar Energy on Waterreduces evaporation, provides cooling, dams: grid connected!
Coal mining subsidence area,
Huainan, Anhui
8MW, Lingxi lake, Lingxi, Hebei
40MW, Huainan, Anhui, China
8.5MW, Sanshan, Wuhu, AnhuiImage sources: Google Map and Sungrow press release.
13
Global PV Production Capacity and Installations
Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG
Production Capacity
Installations
Excess Capacity
Mo
du
le C
apac
ity
(GW
)
Exce
ss C
apac
ity
(GW
)
From 2016: Start of 2nd cycle of PV!
14
Global PV Production Capacity and Shipments Forecast –’22
15
Projections to TW-scale PV from TW workshop March 2016N. M. Haegel et al., Science 356, 141 (2017).
Using simple assumptions, we can project that just maintaining the 2015 deployment rate would reach 1-TW deployment before 2030. A 25% annual growth rate would reach 5-10 TW by 2030!
16
PV Heading into the Terawatt Range – this is a Disruption!
Source: IEA 2014
◼ Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy
◼ In 2050 or before between 4.000 and 30.000 GWp PV will be installed!
◼ By 2018, about 500 GWp have been installed!
We are just atthe beginning ofthe global growth curve!
17
Grid stability with growing amounts of fluctuating RE:
Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006, and in France, UK today!
SAIDI: System Average Interuption Duration Index
Source: Hans-Josef Fell :
For comparison (2013): France (81% Nuclear Power): 68 min., UK: 55 mins.!
18
◼ The urgency of rapid de-carbonization of our economies is recognized worldwide, Fridays for Future started in Europe and spreads worldwide!
◼ PV has become the lowest-cost way to produce electricity in many countries, a rapidly growing element of the electricity supply, driven by smart incentives, technical innovations and new deployment approaches like APV and FPV!
◼ Global Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: for 2030, we expect to move from the current 500 Gigawatt installed globally to 3.000-5.000 GW of PV, 3-5 Terawatt. For 2050 we expect globally 50 - 70 TW! Drivers are the combination of innovation, cost effectiveness and climate concerns.
◼ Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for more than 95% of the total PV production in 2017. Many exciting technology improvements are ongoing, from transitioning to PERC and HJT technologies, to incorporating Perovskites in highest-efficiency PV cell, and completely new approaches.
◼ PV is entering the Terawatt age, moving from 100 GW/a to 300 GW/a, a second cycle of photovoltaic growth has started; substantial new PV production capacities along the full food-chain are needed worldwide: poly-Si, wafers, cells, modules, inverters (BOS), based on high-efficiency PV technology generations, allowing further efficiency improvements atdecreasing cost!
Solar Disruption – it has just begun!
