„The Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI)“ Maputo 19.-21. June 2003 Michael Bollig...

Michael Bollig (Cologne) & Gunter Menz (Bonn)Michael Bollig (Cologne) & Gunter Menz (Bonn)

„The Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI)“ Maputo 19.-21. June 2003

Part III

The use of remote sensing for the spatial assessment of

ecological vulnerability in NW-Namibia



Change in Global Plant Productivity

1982 – 1999

-> Productivity Increase

-> Productivity decrease

Example of global environmental change in Southern Africa:

(Source: NASA Earth Observatory News, 6/03)



HIMBA/HERERO:- Pastoralism- Cattle rangeland- Riverine gardens- ...

OVAMBO:- Small scale

farms- Mixed

farming- Subsistence

- High population

pressure

COMM. FARM.:- Large scale rangeland farms• Low population pressure

ecological gradients

Etosha N.P.

ANG.

BOT.

RSA

Ecological, socioeconomic and political drivers ...

... on VULNERABILITY in NW-Namibia



The vulnerability of a specific region is defined as:

“…the expected damage as resulting from the expected environmental perturbations in view of the expected transformation and adaptation processes.”

(Corell, Cramer & Schellnhuber, 2001)


- environmental perturbations


- transformation and adaptation processes

multiple factor approach to access vulnerability



Numerical modells for VULNERABILITY:• V = f ( E, S, AC ), but presently there is no applicable, sofisticated equation for vulnerability Importance of Data integration:

• Qualitative findings (e.g. trough stakeholder dialog)• Quantitative information, projection of different indicators

• Fuzzy Logic decision tree using qualitative and quantitative variables are needed

• State of the Practice: graphical combination using visual interpretation techniques (e.g. blend-technique)

• Modelling with qualitative differential equations is possible if understandable patterns occur



Vulnerability index (necessity and demand):

(spatial) comparisions of regions

temporal course (for the next 5, 10, 50, ... years)

comparision of scenarios

scales: low, medium, high

mono- & multicausal-analysis: combination of indicators

simplification, but access to detailed information at all time

sectoral und user specific

utilisation through scientists and decision makers



Bio

mass

mod

elli

ng

wit

h M

OD

IS

N

ca. 4

00 k

m

ca. 350 km

WINDHOEK

Outjo

Opuwo

Walvis Bay

1km DGM (GTOPO30, USGS) overlaid with Terra MODIS Scene from 20.02.2001 (Combination: R:3 G:4 B:1, 500m Pixel)



1 m

10 m

100 m

1 km

10 km

100 km

1000 km

1 min 10 min 1 hour 1 day 10 days 1 month 1 year 10 years

temporal scale

spatial scale

crops

firedegradation

desertificationsalinization

vegetationLANDSAT

NOAA

arial photographs

MODIS

global models

measurements/observation

localemodels

regional models



1. Vegetation dynamic observed by NOAA-NDVI:

REDNIR

REDNIRNDVI

NIR= Reflectance at Channel 2 (IR)

RED= Reflectance at Channel 1 (Red)

- spatial resolution: 1 x 1 km²- daily global coverage- time series since 1970- vegetation monitoring using the NDVI:



IGB

P G

lob

al Lan

d C

over

sch

em

e (

Han

sen

et

al .

20

00

)

Water

Mixed Forest

Woody Savannah

Savannah

Closed Shrub land

Open Shrub land

Grassland

Barren Land

2. Land cover changes with MODIS & NOAA



phenologic metrics







0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

WoodySavannahSavannas

Closed Shrub

Open Shrub

Grassland

Barren

Water




3. Assessment of Degradation using high-resolution data

LANDSAT

ETM+•Ground res: 30 m;•7 spectral bands;•Date: 6/5/2000;•Band Comb: 5,3,2



Opuwodegradated land

affected by degradation

3. Assessment of Degradation using high-resolution data



4. Strategies against Drought: Monitoring of Agriculture Areas

LANDSAT ETM+ (2000)



• diversification of subsistence

as monitored by

• quantifying of garden areas and harvest• changes of garden areas over time through comparison with older aerial photographs.

4. Strategies against Drought: Monitoring of Agriculture Areas



Degra

dati

on

Land Use & ~ Cover Change

Catt

le a

nd G

razi

ng

Vegetation Dynamics and

Biomass

Human Dimension

Modelling scheme for the assessment of ecological vulnerability in NW Namibia

Regional

Biosphere

Model



Biomass

Stocking

Drought Prediction

Land Cover Change

Spatial and temporal explicit Output (e.g.)

Pasture Balance

Developing of a

‚Vulnerability-Index‘

Possibilities of handling options in crisis

situations

Land Cover Change

Human Dimension

Vegetation Dynamics and

Biomass

Cattle

and

Gra

zing

Dese

rtifi

cati

on



Thank for your attention !



During the workshop discussions, we will focus on identifying the following:•key processes that influence vulnerability; •key indicators of vulnerability;•intersections and interactions among different stressors;•the common denominators of vulnerability; and•potential policy interventions to reduce vulnerability.

Questions related to vulnerability case studies:1 To what extent is human security presently at risk in your case study region?2.Which stressors currently threaten human security in this region? Are these stressors endogenous or exogenous to the region?3. How do these stressors interact and thereby either reinforce each other or reduce the cumulative risk?4. How might future societal and environmental changes influence future human security in the region? Is either the nature of the threats or the relative importance of various stressors expected to change?5. What factors shape the capacity of this region to adapt to these potential future changes?



Cooperation:

PIK (Germany)Gent (Belgium)Utrecht (The Netherlands)Santa Barbara (USA)Sioux Falls (USA)

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC)PI ENVISATPI SRTM



NPPdecrease

NPPincrease

xx

HIMBA-Pastoralism

XY-small scale -Mixture farming-Subsistence-High population -dynamic

YZLarge scale

Rangeland farmsCash crop

Low population pressure

NA

MIB

ecological gradients

Etosha N.P.

ANG.

BOT.

RSA

Ecological, socioeconic and political drivers ...

... on vulnerability in NW-Namibia





4. Strategies against Drought: Monitoring of Agriculture

Areas

Arial photo, 1975

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