The State, Globalisation and Public Opinion.
Ian Marsh
University of Sydney.
(This paper has been prepared for IPSA 2006, Fukuoka, JSO1.316 session entitled ‘Citizens and Democracy: Asia and Europe’. The paper is a draft of the concluding chapter of a forthcoming study entitled Globalization and Public Opinion in Western Europe and East and South-East Asia edited by Takashi Inoguchi et al. The research on which this study was based was funded under Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, grants to Professor T. Inoguchi, Projet Number 11102001 (1999-2002; 15203005 (2002-2004). The oral presentation will concentrate on the first and third parts of the paper)
1979 did not mark the end of history, but it did initiate a new phase in relations between
technologies, private organisation, states and peoples. The term globalisation has become
the label for this work-in-progress. But it is an exceedingly slippery term. Globalisation is
used descriptively as an umbrella word to link a variety of otherwise unconnected
developments, and also evaluatively to indicate an attitude or orientation towards these
developments. The term globalisation is ubiquitous in political rhetoric. Politicians
invoke it as the cause of insoluble problems or the reason for unavoidable changes. For
scholars and activists, it functions variously as a problematic analytical construct or as a
value-laden ideology. For some, it is the new guise of orientalism, for others a code for
the pursuit of American self-interest, and for still others, the royal road to economic
prosperity, democracy and freedom.
These ambiguities are reflected in a burgeoning literature: references on the Social
Sciences Citation Index have mushroomed from twenty-three in 1990 to two thousand six
hundred and sixty-four in 2003 (Fine, 2005 p. 222). Yet missing from this armada of
studies is any comprehensive empirical assessment of how ordinary citizens respond to
globalisation. This exploratory study sought to begin to fill this gap. It had three primary
aims: first, to assess comparatively exposure to, and evaluation of, globalisation amongst
ordinary citizens; second, to assess some at least of its impacts on attitudes to politics and
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the state; and third, conversely, to evaluate the impact of attitudes to politics and the state
on citizens’ responses to globalisation.
The literature on globalisation covers a variety of topics that are directly or indirectly
relevant to this assessment. It includes such issues as its nature and scope (e.g. Held et al,
2002), its economic dimensions (e.g. Dicken, 2003), the development of trans-national
regulatory regimes (Braithwaite and Drahos, 2000), international elites and globalisation
(e.g. Berger and Huntington, 2002) and the development and impact of international
social movements (e.g. Tarrow, 2005). Its impacts on patterns of governance and state
policy choices have also been extensively examined (e.g. Hay, 2004; Hobson and
Ramesh, 2002; Weiss, 2005; Held and McGrew, 2002). The inclusion of European states
introduced a further issue, namely the complementary, mixed or defensive relationship
between a regional order like the EU and globalisation (e.g. Wallace, 2000).
The literature on globalisation also addresses impacts on individuals. It has figured in a
broader debate about what it means to be cosmopolitan (e.g. Vertovic and Cohen, 2002;
Waldron, 2000; Jung and Tarrow, 2004). Some argue that globalisation has fostered a
hybrid identity based on multiple connections (e.g. Hall, 2002). Others contend that it
fosters temporary identifications (e.g. Sennett, 2002: ‘the global inhabitants of modern
cities tend to see the city as a space for economic activity without any desire to
participate in it as citizens…the churning instability of capitalism…produces a more
standardised environment to which people have fewer attachments’). For Zabaida too,
globalisation fragments rather then unifies experience. ‘International business creates its
own milieux….Tourism creates its own milieux’ (Zabaida, 2002, p. 39).
There were many conceptual, comparative and interpretive difficulties associated with a
wide-ranging study across a large number of otherwise varied countries. These
difficulties touched all aspects of the project, starting from definitions of the two key
terms, globalisation and the state. First, there is no agreement in the literature about the
forms and scope of globalisation. Hay (2004) has discussed the causal power of ideas
about globalisation, particularly those held and disseminated by elites. These have no
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doubt helped spread awareness and reinforced, if not framed, impacts of globalisation on
citizen attitudes. Others emphasise institutional and structural changes. The roles of
international political organisations like the WTO or the UN have expanded. MNCs and
international financial markets have become particularly significant (e.g. Crouch, 2004).
Cultural as well as commercial goods and services are now extensively traded. Global
integration may also be the consequence of a variety of otherwise unrelated structural
developments. In the words of William Wallace, integration is driven by ‘those intense
patterns of interaction which develop amongst countries without the impetus of deliberate
political decisions, following the dynamics of markets, technology, communications
networks and social change’ (quoted Rosamund, p. 655).
The activities of citizens can also enhance their exposure to globalisation. Some activities
mark its presence not because of their novelty but rather because of their contemporary
accessibility and popularity, for example tourism and studying abroad. Other individual
activities are novel, in particular those that reflect new, easy and cheap ways of
connecting with people in other countries, for example via the Internet and email.
Migration too has risen significantly in political salience. Many states are endeavouring
to restrict these movements and, at least in a number of European countries, populist right
wing parties have mobilised new anti-migration constituencies.
To overcome confusion about the scope and range of globalisation, this study adopted a
particular approach. Citizens may come to understand globalisation less through
cognitive processes, and more through practical experience. Respondents were thus
invited to indicate whether they engaged in activities that are commonly associated with
globalisation, and also whether they recognised an impact on aspects of everyday life.
But in both cases the focus of this study was on particular activities or experiences.
Respondents were asked to indicate if they had engaged in particular activities, like
tourism. They were also asked if they recognised the influence of international factors in
changes in everyday experiences. Whether respondents made a further step and
associated these experiences with a more or less coherent notion of globalisation could
only be inferred.
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The second definitional problem concerned the idea of the state. What is a state? An
imagined community? A community of fate? A (more or less porous) infrastructure of
political and civil institutions? A particular patterning of policy and power? All four are
relevant. Katzenstein (2000), Swank (2003) and Svallfors (1997) have all explored the
links between state strategies that buffer citizens against global forces and support for
international economic engagement. State economic strategies also vary with presumably
differential effects on citizen attitudes. (e.g. Campbell and Pedersen, 2001; Hall and
Soskice, 2001; Crouch, 2005; Marsh, 2006). Meantime, a burgeoning literature discusses
the role of institutions, of which the state is the most prominent example. Institutional
theories trace many present practices and attitudes to historical experience, including
events in the very remote past. Expedient solutions to past conflicts become the customs
and habits of later generations (Pierson, 2004; also March and Olsen, 1995; North, 1990).
Such factors constitute the state in the memory of its citizens. Contemporary policy
strategies can reinforce these loyalties. Together, these varied factors create the idea of
the state in the minds of its citizens. They also create degrees of freedom for states in
influencing citizen attitudes. In turn, both could mediate impacts of globalisation. But the
current and historical, institutional, structural and cultural elements that are joined in the
idea of a state are too complex and too variegated to be collected into a single proxy
variable. Hence, we were unable to calculate with any precision the impact of states tout
court on citizen orientations.
To overcome this problem, this study focused on the most generally accepted measures of
citizen attitudes to politics and the state, namely political culture - including identity,
ideology, policy preferences, confidence and participation. The range of variables
indicates the complex structure of citizen opinion and the varied psychological planes and
processes that constitute it. For example, policy issues and preferences involve primarily
cognitive judgements, ideological orientations reflect values and beliefs, and identity is
associated with more deeply rooted affective or emotional loyalties. These variables thus
draw variously on formative, life cycle and current experiences, and they are expressed in
hopes, beliefs, ideals and aspirations.
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A further difficulty arose from the absence of firm knowledge about the direction of
impacts. The impacts of globalisation on the identities, beliefs and preferences of citizens
can be measured. But a reciprocal relationship is no less plausible. Hence, the impact of
citizen identities, beliefs and policy preferences also needs to be assessed. The results
then need to be interpreted. For example, does experience of globalisation weaken,
supplement, enhance or have no affect on attitudes to politics and the state? Conversely,
do attitudes to politics and the state supplement, enhance, weaken or have no affect on
assessments of globalisation? Is there evidence of a convergence in attitudes between
citizens from different states and regions? The impact of a supra-state infrastructure on
citizen identities has been studied in the context of the EU, but this is a much more
developed institutional order than those associated with globalisation (e.g. Marcusson et
al, 1999; Hermann et al. 2004). In the absence of both a comprehensive theory and
longitudinal data, the findings presented here can only be limited and tentative.
The results of this study are summarised in the following two sections. The first outlines
specific findings in relation to the impacts of globalisation on attitudes to politics and the
state. The second looks at the more general relationship between globalisation and states,
in particular the significance of this development from the perspective of public opinion.
The chapter concludes with a discussion of some more general implications of
globalisation.
Globalisation and Citizen Attitudes to Politics and the State
This has been a study of experiences of globalisation as they affect attitudes to politics
and the state that are held by ordinary citizens. The European and Asian countries from
which the respondents to this study were drawn are marked by significant differences in
religion, economic levels, culture, history etc. Despite this, these eighteen states are those
that have been most exposed to the impacts of globalisation, at least in a material,
economic, and cultural sense. Some scholars and pundits treat globalisation, particularly
5
its economic dimension, as pervasive, indeed the pre-eminent contemporary force. For
their part, political leaders have uniformly asserted that it is irresistible and they have
invoked globalisation as the rationale for domestic programs of change.1 But how far are
these elite judgements mirrored in the attitudes of ordinary citizens? Do they recognise
globalisation as a pervasive phenomenon? Have their attitudes to politics and the state
marched in step with those of their leaders? If the force of globalisation is as pervasive as
some claim, its effects should perhaps be apparent in convergent responses across
countries and/or regions. If these effects are not evident, the challenge is to tease out its
more subtle and/or more narrowly based - and doubtless more ambiguous - impacts and
implications. .
The specific findings of this study can be summarised in four broad conclusions:
• The first concerns exposure to and awareness of globalisation: as it is defined in this
study, globalisation is clearly having significant impacts. Over 75% of respondents
indicated awareness. Of these, around 35% recorded a positive response, 15% a
negative response, 25% were undecided and 25% indicated no awareness. Exposure
was also widespread, but the most common channel was the passive medium of
television. Responses varied widely within and between the regions, both in their
incidence and in their potential political significance.
• Second, and not surprisingly, globalisation is not associated with weakened citizen
attitudes to politics and the state in any pervasive sense. Rather, its impacts are more
particularised, elusive and apparently cross-cutting. For example, ideological and
evaluative orientations are not shared by European and Asian respondents, which
potentially differentiate globalisation’s impacts on an array of citizen attitudes.
• Third, there is clear evidence of convergence in attitudes to particular issues (e.g. the
environment) held by citizens from different states and regions, but it is not clear if
this is attributable to globalisation, or if mass opinion is rather primarily fostered by
national political elites. Further, even where attitudes have converged, this does not
necessarily diminish state legitimacy – for example, unemployment that is attributed
to globalisation is almost universally seen as a responsibility of national governments.
1
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Globalisation has also given a new impetus to anti-globalisation populism, at least
amongst European states: significant minorities are concerned to defend their national
cultures and are worried about social integration (immigration, ethnic and religious
conflict).
• Fourth, there are varying responses by individuals who belong to particular socio-
demographic groups, particularly according to age, income, and education and in
some cases gender, but these do not form any immediately consistent pattern. For
example, age is associated with cross-cutting effects. Young people constitute a
particular case. Although there is some evidence of more internationalist orientations
among young people, it is unclear if these are life cycle or cohort affects (other
evidence suggests there is no case for seeing young people as more likely to jettison
national loyalties: Jung and Tarrow, 2004).
In general, globalisation, at least in the forms in which it has been presented and assessed
in this study, has an important but cross cutting direct and indirect influence on attitudes
to politics and the state. A variety of intermediary variables – not least the approaches of
political entrepreneurs, state economic or social strategies, and historic experiences - will
be primary in determining the patterning of national recognitions and whether and how
these translate into politically salient citizen responses. The following sections consider
these findings in turn.
1. Awareness and exposure were remarkably widespread
The survey included two broad measures of the scope and forms of citizen recognition of
globalisation covering both their exposure and their evaluations. The measures of
awareness covered eight aspects – goods in shops, food in restaurants, job security,
standard of living, impacts on neighbourhoods and communities, use of English and
foreign news and entertainment on television. On average 48% of the overall sample
responded with a definite positive or negative answer and a further 29% indicated that
they recognised an effect but could not say whether it was good or bad. This means that
overall approximately 75% of respondents indicated awareness of an effect of
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globalisation. There was also convergence between the regions. The numbers who
offered a definite view were about the same in both. In sum, overall levels of recognition
of particular impacts of globalisation amongst respondents were very high. Whether these
were understood as ‘globalisation’ is another matter.
The proportion of positive judgements was also quite high. Of the just on 50% of the
sample who had a definite view about these varied aspects of globalisation, an average of
71% said the effects were positive. The proportion of positive respondents was again
fairly close between the regions (75%, East and Southeast Asian and 66%, Western
Europe). On only one item – the use of English – and in only one region – Western
Europe - did negative answers exceed positive answer (27% versus 25%). The questions
on foods in restaurants and standard of living elicited the highest ratios of positive to
negative reposes (77% and 70%). The question on job security the lowest (59%). Again,
there were wide variations in country results which will be considered later. Meantime, a
factor analysis showed that these attitudes grouped into three realms of experience, but
when repeated on a country basis the patterns diverged widely. This suggests that
national factors significantly varied the structure of individual experience
Turning to exposure, a factor analysis showed that these experiences too were segmented
into three distinct domains: one related to connections through work and the Internet; a
second to connections based on family, friends or travel abroad; and a third to media
exposure. Whereas 13% of the overall sample indicated they were exposed to
globalisation via work and Internet links, for 51% this occurred via the medium of
television. The factor structure varied regionally and also by country thus implying
substantial variations in the patterning of encounters, an outcome that is presumably
attributable to distinctive national cultural, institutional, structural or other features.
Further, these exposures were likely to have very different impacts. They ranged from
relatively more active links (the work category) to the quite passive exposure represented
by television viewing.
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There was also divergence between the regions. Amongst Western European respondents,
22% registered a work and web link and 49% a family, friends and travel link. By
contrast, only 16% (check) of East and Southeast Asian respondents registered a work
and web link and 23% a family, friends and travel link. The EU is presumably one
powerful influence on the West European results. This was suggested when the analysis
was redone on a regional basis. The responses of West Europeans split between only two
groupings with work, family, friends and travel joined in a single factor. Presumably,
Western European respondents did not discriminate between the effects of the EU and
those created by wider processes of globalisation. There was also substantial variance
between the levels of exposure of citizens from different countries –and these will be
further considered later.
There was also some correlation between exposure to globalisation in one or another
form and positive views about its effects. Those who were exposed to globalisation in
both regions were more likely to have a positive attitude.
Knowledge of English was also probed. This is the dominant language of (northern)
globalisation and presumably essential for full participation in its processes. Excluding
English speaking states, on average 77% of respondents from the states in Asia and 54%
from those in Europe had no knowledge of English or only up to an elementary capacity.
A further 12% of respondents in Asia and 13% from Europe had ‘middling’ levels of
English competence. Finally, only a minority claimed fluency or near fluency: the Asian
average was 11% and 14% in Western Europe. These average results masked wide
variation at the country level.
At the level of political institutions, respondents were sceptical about the impacts of
international organisations on their daily lives. Of the overall sample, 58% said the UN
had no effect on their day-to-day lives or they did not know. MNCs were similarly
discounted: 51% said they had no effect on day-to-day life or they did not know what that
effect was. By contrast, amongst West Europeans, only 33% said this of the EU. These
results may suggest only a limited grasp of the deeper dynamics of globalisation.
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In sum, exposure to people from, and experiences involving, other countries was
widespread and general awareness of international impacts on daily life was particularly
widespread. In aggregate, around 35% of the respondents across the eighteen countries
offered a positive evaluation. There were however some important reservations relating
to job security and, in Europe, culture. The intensity of exposure also varied widely. For
example, in both regions, the most passive medium, television, was the most common
source. The incidence of both exposure and evaluations also varied widely between
countries. In addition, save for the EU, recognition of the influence of international
organisations was uniformly low. Finally, factor analyses of both exposure and awareness
variables suggested globalisation was not experienced as a unitary process but rather as a
variety of at least partially unrelated experiences.
2. Globalisation and citizen orientations to the state.
Our initial task was to establish evidence of the impact of globalisation on orientations to
the state amongst citizens generally. Impacts on these more ‘elemental’ orientations
needed to be established before turning to consider impacts on more immediate issues.
Affective and evaluative orientations are considered in turn.
Affective Ties
Identity involves perhaps the most visceral connection to the state. The strength of
national identity varied widely by region. 60% of respondents from East and Southeast
Asia declared national identity to be extremely important compared to 40% of West
Europeans. Levels of supranational identification were rather similar in the two regions.
But whereas the political category, European, dominated in Europe, amongst Asian
respondents religion, ethnicity and culture all figured. Further, the forms and the
importance attached to these links varied widely not only between regions but between
countries and sometimes in surprising ways. For example, whereas 84% of Malaysians
rated their Islamic identity as extremely important only just on 50% of Indonesians
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(Javanese) recorded this response. Amongst Europeans, some 60% nominated European
as their supranational identity but only 20% indicated that they judged this as important
or extremely important.
Active exposure to the processes of globalisation was associated with a less intense
attachment to national identity. Those who experienced global impacts through work and
the Internet or through having family and friends in other countries were less likely to
declare their national identity to be very important and more likely to declare supra-
national identity to be important. The direction of influence cannot be demonstrated but
common sense might suggest the latter was a consequence of the exposure and not vice
versa. The incidence of these connections was also relatively limited, although higher in
Western Europe than in East and Southeast Asia. The most common (and most passive)
mode of exposure, watching foreign entertainment and news on television, had no effect
on the strength of national identity. It did however have some limited correlation with
supranational identification.
These effects were cross-cut by other impacts. Those who were exposed through
television (nearly 50% of the sample) and those who believed globalisation had a
negative impact on job security were more likely to believe their countries were treated
unfairly in international contexts. This sense of grievance may be the path through which
individual affects are translated into a collective response.
In general, these findings suggest that an orientation to the state remains a core element
of the self-recognitions of individual citizens but that its potency varies, with East and
Southeast Asians valuing this attachment much more than their West European cousins.
This may be an artefact of different historical experience. Further, the impacts of
exposure to globalisation were differentiated. Active engagement thorough work, family
and other direct contacts diminished the strength of national identity but passive
engagement through television and the perception of a negative effect on job security
enhanced collective grievances. Globalisation would appear to provide a new context for
an old cleavage.
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Evaluative Ties.
The ASES survey probed three evaluative dimensions of orientations to the state,
ideologies, policy preferences and confidence. Impacts of globalisation on ideology were
tested by assessing first, whether respondent’s recognised, and attached importance to,
the left-right scale and second, their approaches to substantive issues concerning equality,
economic freedom, the role of the state etc. Past survey research in specifically West
European contexts has revealed a consistent patterning of these latter responses and their
correlations with citizen self-positioning on a left-right scale. The ASES survey sought to
establish if these ideological aspirations and identifications with the left-right scale have
spread to citizens in East and Southeast Asia. Correlations between the exposure and
awareness variables and particular ideological dispositions were also assessed.
There was clearly no general ideological convergence between respondents from the two
regions and this could be expected to have a significant impact on more immediate
responses to globalisation. Starting with evidence of attachment to the left-right scale,
75% (?) of the citizens of the nine European countries located themselves on a left-right
dimension although as we will see later, there was substantial variance between countries
in the importance attached to this scale. In Asia the results were very different. Here
country specific results dominated. Between 88% and 95% of the citizens of the
Philippines, South Korea and Thailand were willing to place themselves on the scale. In
the other five states either relatively few were able to place themselves on the scale or
attached little importance to it. There was however similarity between the two regions in
the numbers placing themselves in the middle of the ten point scale. This self placement
was adopted by between 20% and 30% of respondents. Finally, left wing self placement
exceeded right wing self placement in Western Europe but the reverse was the case
amongst the Asian respondents.
At a substantive level, there was convergence on three issues. 85% approximately in both
regions agreed competition was good. On the need for government intervention (‘we
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need a lot of government intervention to deal with to-days economic problems’) 66%
overall were in agreement but West European support exceeded that of East and South
East Asians by 8 points (check). On the social policy issues, 85% agreed with the view
that ‘government should take responsibility for ensuring that everyone either has a job or
is provided with adequate social welfare’. But on the freedom of business to make profits,
52% of East and Southeast Asian respondents agreed compared to 34% of West
Europeans, with substantial country variations. On incomes should be made more equal,
77% of West Europeans affirmed this proposition but only 49% of Asian respondents.
Finally the relationship between left right self placement and policy preferences
suggested a classic interventionist-egalitarian dimension for Western Europe, which was
evident in all countries save for Ireland. In contrast, the data for the Asian countries failed
to produce an analogous pattern.
In sum, based on the battery of variables that were probed, ideology varied markedly
between the two regions. The European responses generally confirm earlier studies
concerning the importance of ideology and its substantive content. The Asian results
were quite different – thus suggesting that at least at the evaluative level, orientations to
politics and the state is being framed by quite different underlying sources.
Regressions on the impact of exposure and job security on ideology?
Policy preferences are second evaluative area in which there does not appear to have been
any retreat from the state. Attitudes towards import protection, restriction of land
purchases and cultural protection were all probed. Again there was no evidence of
convergence. On each issue, substantially higher proportions of Asian respondents
favoured protection than their European counterparts (?).
The results for the policy preferences were correlated with the three exposure factors
identified in Chapter 3 (work and web, media and family and friends). There was a strong
positive correlation between each form of exposure and support for economic and
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cultural protection. This suggests that exposure to globalisation is not associated with
more ‘internationalist’ or economically liberal policy orientations (Check).
The more citizens were exposed to globalisation the lower their levels of confidence
in domestic political institutions? But if they had a negative attitude to job
security?
In sum, globalisation has had differentiated impacts on orientations to politics and the
state. Some exposures weakened national identity but others strengthened it. Meantime
policy preferences uniformly supported statist orientations; exposure to globalisation in
every form did not affect these orientations (?). Similarly confidence? Exposure to, and
attitudes towards, globalisation thus had identifiable but cross cutting impacts on
orientations to the state.
3. Globalisation and national political issues.
Attitudes to political issues were explored through respondent’s assessments of the
priority and causes of policy problems and their attribution of responsibility for solving
them. Again, if globalisation was as pervasive an influence as some assert, convergent
responses might be expected within if not between regions. Further, if globalisation was
to cause a shift in citizen attitudes, a perception that the causes of problems lay in
international developments might be expected to be associated with the view that they
also needed to be solved at this level.
There was evidence of the internationalisation of issues. The causes of policy problems
affecting the economy, unemployment and the environment and attributions of
responsibility for handling them were all probed. In the case of the economy, a majority
of respondents (60 % in Asia and 66% in Europe) attributed problems to international
causes or to both international and domestic causes and y% said the solution involved all
countries acting together. In the case of the environment, around 50% of respondents
attributed an international dimension to environmental problems and 60% believed this
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problem should be handled by all countries acting together. These results may point to a
weakening orientation to the state. But regional differences were significant. West
Europeans were fifteen percent more likely to see environmental problems as
international in origin than East and Southeast Asians. Whether this reflects the impact of
the EU, domestic Green parties or other influences is unclear. By contrast, in the case of
the most immediately salient issue, unemployment, solely domestic causes were
nominated by clear majorities (57% Asia, 53% Europe) and domestic solutions were
overwhelmingly favoured (y%)
Respondents were also asked whether they thought responses to six other issues should
be handled by all countries together or nations individually. On five of these, a majority
of respondents favoured action by all countries together. These were: regional or other
military conflict (between 66% and 77%); problems of developing countries (65%);
problems of refugees and asylum seekers (61%); and human rights (58%). On one issue,
women’s rights, roughly equal numbers supported national and international
responsibility (46% collective action; 43% national action). However on all these matters
there was often a significant difference of view between respondents from the two
regions, with West Europeans again generally more inclined to favour collaborative
governance.
Globalisation impacts were again cross cutting. Those indicating a link via work or web
were consistently more likely to judge policy problems as international and the
solutions? Not surprisingly those who saw globalisation as having a negative impact on
job security were also more likely to see its origin in the international economy. But they
looked to their national governments for a solution.
Attributions.
Regressions using the exposure and job security variables.
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There is clear evidence of convergence in attitudes to particular issues held by citizens
from different states and regions, but it is not clear if these are directly attributable to
globalisation or if they are mediated into mass opinion by national political elites.
Further, these attitudes do not necessarily diminish state legitimacy – for example,
unemployment that is attributed to globalisation is almost universally seen as a
responsibility of national governments. Globalisation has also brought new populist, anti-
globalisation constituencies to the fore, at least amongst European states: significant
minorities are concerned to defend their national cultures and worried about social
integration (immigration, ethnic and religious conflict).
4. Globalisation and the responses of particular socio-demographic categories.
What individual characteristics were particularly associated with impacts of globalisation
or with attitudes to politics and the state? There was a kaleidoscope of effects but no
consistent patterns across the categories (?). There were rather strongly differentiated
responses in particular cases. First, there was no close, systematic or general relationship
between exposure and the socio economic background of respondents. Not surprisingly,
exposure to the range of global connections was more likely amongst those with higher
levels of education or with higher living standards. Similarly, the proportion of ‘don’t
knows’ and of those who felt that there were no effects declined with higher living
standards and better education. Gender? Exposure to globalisation was also widespread
but less uniform with age. Younger people were more likely to watch foreign
entertainment on TV, to use the internet and more likely to speak English. Younger
people’s engagement was also higher with friends abroad, foreign news on TV and work
that involved contacts with other countries, but this was much less marked. The
proportion of ‘don’t knows’ increased with age.
In the case of evaluations, there was a substantial relationship between education, age and
living standards and views about globalisation. Positive views about globalisation were
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again strongly associated with younger age groups, better education and higher living
standards. So was confidence in international organisations and so was encountering
globalisation.
Turning to national identity, the strength of these feelings was strongly related to age –
but it was unclear if this was a cohort or life cycle effect. Education too had an effect.
The more educated were more likely to regard their country as unfairly treated or treated
with less respect than it’s due. The more highly educated were also more likely to
recognise a supra-national identity. Age had no effect on supra-national identity. Gender
did have an effect. Women were committed somewhat less strongly to either national or
supra national identity. But frequency of religious practice increased the strength of both.
In the case of ideology, only gender and education showed distinctive effects
Europeans, people identifying as left-leaning and males were much more likely to see
problems as international.
Individual level analyses of policy worries?
Policy preferences etc.
At the level of participation, men were more likely to engage in campaign activity, save
for respondents from Thailand and Spain. Men were also more likely to discuss politics
in Asia but this was not he case in Europe. Younger people were more likely than older
people to take part in contentious activity, as were the educated (but not in the UK).
In relation to individual level factors, the general picture
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Globalisation and the Outlook for States
What of the future for states themselves? For the reasons explored in the introduction to
this chapter there is no composite variable that would enable the mediating impacts of
states tout court to be definitively assessed. Nor do we have variables that would allow
the impacts of different state socio-economic strategies to be determined. At least four
strategies are represented in the approaches of the states covered in this survey (Chapter
2): neo-liberal (e.g. Britain); distributional (e.g. in different versions Germany and
Sweden); developmental (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Ireland and perhaps
France); and familial social policy (Southern Europe). In the absence of proxy variables,
the impacts of globalisation on states are a subject for conjecture. On the basis of the
ASES findings, there are at least three reasons for believing that state settings remain pre-
eminent as sites for mobilising, framing and shaping citizen responses, and that they can
do this both directly, through the nature of public debate and deliberation, and indirectly,
through policies that mediate and buffer globalisation’s impacts on citizens:
i. Amongst those who were exposed to globalisation or had a definite attitude to this
development, responses were mostly cross-cutting. To the extent this stimulates
political conflict at national levels, there is a new impetus for fragmentation but the
salience of the former will not diminish. For example, the touchstone issue of
unemployment consolidated the standing of nation-states in the eyes of their publics.
ii. At a mass level, there is significant variation in political cultures, in the patterns in
which citizens from different states experience globalisation, and in their views about
touchstone issues. This suggests that even if globalisation has substantial effects on
citizen attitudes, responses at the level of individual states are likely to be coloured by
these intervening factors and thus highly varied.
iii. Finally, even on issues that have internationalised, like the environment, state elites
and state institutions have arguably played pre-eminent mediating roles in
transmitting concerns to the mass level and framing mass responses.
18
i. Globalisation, domestic cleavages and national politics.
At an aggregate level, a number of findings pointed to the potential of globalisation to
fragment national politics in new ways, but not to transcend national politics. There were
substantial impacts of globalisation on identity but, as we have seen, there was no
consistency in responses. Those who were more exposed to globalisation were less likely
to strongly identify with their own country. But those who were negative about the
impact of globalisation on employment or who were exposed to it through the media
were more likely to regard their country as unfairly treated in international contexts.
Further, the overwhelming majority of those who regarded unemployment as caused
wholly or partially by international factors nevertheless attributed responsibility to their
national government for solving the problem.
Similarly, social integration has already shown the potential, at least in Europe, to
mobilise new nationalist and populist constituencies that are hostile to aspects of
globalisation. On the other side of the ideological spectrum, Green parties have sought to
mobilise constituencies on the side of international action on environmental, human
rights and other trans-national issues associated with globalisation (e.g. trade). The
evidence clearly shows some publics have been persuaded of the need for international
action at least on the environment. Public attitudes to the environment and social
integration are clear evidence of the cross-cutting impacts of globalisation on mass
publics, albeit the effects are much stronger amongst European than Asian respondents.
But these are cleavages in national politics. International normative and institutional
infrastructures may have attracted activists and elites. Mass impacts are harder to discern
ii. Differentiated experiences, political cultures and attitudes, and the impacts of
globalisation on states.
There was abundant evidence of differentiated political cultures between regions and
states. To the extent globalisation has an impact, these are likely to preserve
19
predominantly differentiated responses amongst citizens from different states. Take
ideology. The evidence clearly establishes that the left-right cleavage that characterises
publics in Western European states is not shared by the publics of most East and
Southeast Asian states. Nor is the left-right cleavage recognised to be salient in these
latter states. Further, in none of them is it associated with consistent ideological
orientations, at least matching those found in Western Europe. This means that to the
extent ideological orientations influence responses to globalisation, quite different
attitudes could be expected from the publics of the two regions. There were also
significant variations on these matters between countries. These would further
differentiate national responses.
There was a similar difference between the regions in the attributions of responsibility for
solving problems to national governments. The publics of East and Southeast Asia were
much more oriented to the management of policy issues by their national governments
than those of the European states. But this latter reaction doubtless reflects the influence
of the EU, not any wider process of internationalisation. This difference too might be
expected to be associated with different national responses to particular issues.
There were marked regional differences in orientations to politics. Take participation
patterns. European respondents were four times more likely to attend a protest, march or
demonstration than their Asian counterparts. Similarly, European respondents were much
more likely to undertake what were described as ‘contentious’ political actions. These
differences point to the different levels of democratic development and political
socialisation that characterise the states in the sample. This too could be expected to
colour the responses of citizens from different states to global developments.
There were also outriders on particular matters, which reflected aspects of the different
cultures of the various countries. For example, despite their geographical proximity and
their overlapping cultural traditions, the French were three times more likely to attend a
protest, street march or demonstration than their British counterparts. 33% more Irish
than Portuguese respondents indicated they had contacted politician about a national
20
issue. Malaysians were seventeen times more likely than Singaporeans to join a political
party. Save for four countries, more educated people were more likely to engage in
contentious activity (the exceptions were UK, ). Or take an issue like immigration.
On average, 36% (?) of Europeans nominated this as an issue, but it was singled out by
56% of Italians and 52% of Greek respondents, the highest in Europe. None of these
outcomes is decisive by itself. But each is symptomatic of specific national cultural and
behavioural contours, which would inflect responses to broader international issues, were
they to spill into national politics.
This was not a study of the impact of particular state strategies on citizen opinion. This is
a much larger task which others have pursued (Katzestein, 2000; Swank, 2003; Svallfors,
1997). It is surely one that deserves more attention? The present findings suggest there
could be a link between state strategies and citizen attitudes. For example, in Europe only
two states, Germany and Sweden recorded majorities opposed to economic protection.
On the impacts of globalisation on employment, only Swedish and Irish respondents
recorded positive views. Sweden and Germany have both followed (different)
distributional strategies, which have been designed to buffer their citizens from the
vicissitudes of the international economy. Whereas in Sweden there has been some
adaptation of social strategies to globalisation, in Germany this task largely remains.
Meantime Ireland has adopted a classic developmental state strategy, which buffers its
citizens in a different way. In this respect, the Irish strategy is much closer to that of the
East Asian states.
Amongst Asian respondents there were positive majorities in favour of the impacts of
globalisation on employment in all states save for South Korea and Japan. This is a
remarkable result given the magnitude of the 1997 financial crisis. A number of these
states also favoured protection. This is wholly consistent with the developmental
approach followed by their national governments. Singapore, a paradigm development
state, has however based its approach on attracting foreign investment. This was
consistent with its citizen’s hostility to protection. In other areas Singaporean respondents
recorded very high levels of confidence in their national government. Similarly, Taiwan
21
has followed a developmental strategy which has been less welcoming of FDI or at least
made sure it is congruent with its own developmental priorities (Wade, 1989). Yet a
majority of Taiwanese respondents opposed protection. This may reflect Taiwan’s entry
to the WTO, which was occurring at the same time as this survey. Finally, Britain
represents the closest example of a neo-liberal state in this survey. A majority of British
respondents favoured economic protection and considered globalisation to be bad for
employment. The commitment of both major parties in Britain to neo-liberal economic
strategies makes broader public opinion on these issues of little immediate political
consequence. Yet this result is not propitious for advocates of globalisation. A
demonstrated link between positive citizen attitudes to global engagement and particular
national economic and social strategies would be a powerful argument for much greater
attention to the capacities of states to buffer international economic integration.
Finally, in the absence of a theory concerning the specific influence of globalisation on
public opinion, its impacts might nevertheless be recognised as important, but mostly in
an indirect sense and as part of a larger set of factors. For example, the policy concerns of
Asian respondents were generally more ‘materialist’ and thus, if we accept Inglehart’s
theory of attitude formation, consistent with their level of development. But this theory
implicitly assigns primary importance to developments in individual states, a process in
which the forces of globalisation might figure as an important, but mostly indirect,
influence. More generally, Inglehart and Wenzel’s (2005) theory of political development
proposes socio-economic development as the key driver. Globalisation might again be an
important factor but its influence would mostly be indirect or mediated. In Western
Europe at least, scholars have identified a more general problem of citizen ‘disaffection’,
which is likely to be driven by a kaleidoscope of factors of which elite convergence
concerning responses to ‘globalisation’ may be one (e.g. Pharr et al, 2000; Blyth and
Katz, 2005).
iii. States as a setting for the formation of public opinion on global issues.
22
At first blush some of the evidence reviewed earlier might suggest a new
internationalisation of public opinion, for example the results in relation to responses to
the environment. But there are at least two reasons for thinking local factors remain
paramount. First, if international developments had exercised a compelling or unmediated
influence on public opinion, the outcomes could have been expected to be closer between
citizens from different regions and states. In fact, there was considerable variation.
Second, national governments had themselves taken strong internationalist positions on
environmental issues. Theories of opinion formation suggest these political elites have
particular influence on the formation of public opinion more generally (Zaller, 1992). A
cursory review of the background to the most prominent international issue, global
warming, indicates the scale of publicity. Global warming was a principal issue at the Rio
Earth Summit in 1992. A variety of widely reported scientific and other gatherings
followed. These occurred prior to the Kyoto Summit in December 1997. Meantime,
throughout these negotiations the EU (supported by member states) was the principal
champion for strong measures The agreement reached at Kyoto needed further work
before it could become binding and follow-up sessions were held in Buenos Aires (1998)
and den Hague (1999). Hence, in the period preceding this survey, publicity on
intergovernmental co-operation on this one issue had been substantial. And in this
particular case, elite political opinion was supported by environmental movements and
Green parties (where they existed) and in general by expert opinion. In the development
of mass opinion, the combination of political, scientific and social movement elites
created formidable, perhaps unusual, pressures on public opinion more broadly. Top
down, bottom up and ‘outside-in’ influences on opinion formation all worked in one
direction. This may indicate the scale and coherence of the effort required to achieve
impact on mass opinion. Of course the views of these elite groups had themselves been
shaped by prior international engagements of various kinds. In sum, public opinion on the
environment points to the varied, complex and harmonised interactions that need to occur
for impacts to be attained.
In fact, the most plausible explanation for the formation of public opinion on
environmental and other issues would recognise the continuing importance of nation
23
states. If the process of opinion formation often seems like alchemy, nation states
nevertheless provide the ‘atmosphere’ in which opinion crystallises. International
campaigns have augmented, but not displaced, national institutions. These latter
constitute the stage set on which the dramas of ‘globalisation’ are enacted - or converted
to comedy, farce or worse. Through the theatre and spectacle of local politics, public
opinion is engaged and its development stimulated. Local institutions disseminate the
integrating concepts through which otherwise unrelated experiences and perceptions gain
meaning and significance. Through succeeding acts and scenes, a formed opinion can
progressively take shape. In sum, in the unfolding politics of globalisation, domestic
institutions remain decisive as mediating, buffering and/or catalytic agents. It is hard to
disagree with Held’s assessment of the continuing importance of states as settings for the
formation of citizen opinion (2002, p. 56): ‘The available evidence suggests that national
(and local) cultures remain robust; national institutions continue in many states to have a
central impact on public life; national television and radio broadcasting continue to enjoy
substantial audiences; the organisation of the press and news coverage retain strong
national roots and imported products are constantly read and reinterpreted in novel ways
by national audiences’. Or Colin Hay: ‘The nation state remains the principal focus of
political identification and the principal focus of political debate and contestation in an
interdependent world’ (p. 236).
Summary.
The forces of globalisation are clearly present but are subtle and variegated and certainly
not consistent either in their gross or in their particular impacts. These findings diverge
sharply from Vertovic and Cohen’s contention: ‘We have strongly argued that
transnationals ethnic, religious and even virtual communities, global social movements
and global networks have already massively subverted state structures by going around
and beyond them’ (p. 20). That all these forces are present and significant features of
contemporary politics is undeniable. But the notion that they have ‘massively subverted’
state structures is quite another matter. This study has not of course explored state
structures tout court. But it has explored their most fundamental buttress – citizen
24
support. Here we find globalisation has had effects – but effects that lead citizens to
stronger attachments or greater dependence on states as much as to a broadening or
weakening of loyalties. Further, which response emerges arguably depends on the context
that particular states provide. Finally, even where globalisation encourages a more
internationalist orientation this is not inconsistent with persisting and strong local
attachments: these are the ‘rooted cosmopolitans’ who figure in Tarrow’s study (2005) of
international activists.
Conclusion.
Returning to the broader theme of globalisation, and looking back on this as a study of
citizen attitudes, what is most striking is the continuing importance of nation states as the
primary setting for their formation, not least about ‘globalisation’. Widespread awareness
of its aspects there may be. The increasing influence of international public and private
institutions on daily life may be acknowledged. Direct encounters with ‘foreign’ people,
places and things may be expanding. Media representations may bring new images and
even issues to the attention of ever-larger numbers of citizens. Benign - and malign -
developments both circulate at greater speeds. But in the formation of citizen attitudes
and opinions, nation states remain pre-eminent.
While it is clear citizens are well aware of many aspects of ‘globalisation’, it seems
equally clear that this awareness has not seeded the development of a new
‘cosmopolitanism’, at least if that is defined as ‘free from national limitations’ (OED);
and to the extent public opinion has ‘internationalised’ this does not yet seem to have
diminished in any significant way the role of the state as the setting for its refinement and
development.. On the contrary, there are even strong hints that those governments that
have played active mediating, buffering and/or catalytic roles have been far more
effective in building constituencies for international engagement than those which have
adopted a ‘laissez faire’ approach. This suggests important new brokerage and enabling
roles for the state, not any lessening of state roles.
25
‘Globalisation’ in its varied forms is an important, and clearly a growing, influence on the
self-understanding of citizens. It is also a growing and unavoidable political imperative.
Extreme inequalities (e.g. Scott, forthcoming) and environmental and other limits to
growth (e.g. Flannery, ; Gore, ) are just two reasons for this to be so. But these
great trans-national challenges are only one dimension of the contemporary political
scene. At least for the states covered in this survey, new issues are also apparent from
within. For those in the West, an expressive individualism has undermined older
hierarchies and attachments (Taylor, 2003; Crouch, 1999) and presented a new challenge
of mobilisation and integration (e.g. Dalton, 2004). For those in the East, and save for one
state, democratisation has imparted a new salience to the views of individual citizens. In
their different ways, these currents are making the self-understandings of citizens a more
important, albeit far from decisive, factor in the decisions of political elites. These related
but independent developments make responses to the challenge of globalisation
problematic. Held (2004) has described the best case: ‘Political agents who can reason
from the point of view of others are better equipped to resolve, and to fairly resolve, the
challenging trans-boundary issues that create overlapping communities of fate’ (p. 58).
Alternatively, globalisation could fuel a populist politics that plays on ignorance and fear
in the name of a selfish and self-absorbed nationalism.
This choice will be determined in an immediate sense by the actions and influence of
competing domestic elites. But the broad conversation about global issues, mediated by
national political institutions, constitutes a critical background which will frame and
influence the formation of public opinion. Current findings about the condition of that
mediating infrastructure in both East and West are not sanguine (e.g. for the west: Dalton,
2004; Katz and Blyth, 2004; for democratising Asia: Marsh (ed), 2006). Thus the single
most important conclusion of this study concerns the decisive role of national institutions,
in seeding and framing these national conversations. This covers both the incentives that
shape exchanges between rival partisans and the policies and programs that influence the
responses of individual citizens. In this respect, our findings parallel in another key those
of Dalton (2004). Political systems that facilitate national conversations that eschew
populism, that expose the realities of interdependence, and that build publics who
26
understand sympathetically the resultant complexities, will do a better job of shaping a
tolerable future world, even, in the best case and with luck, one that is prosperous and
mostly peaceful. But neither history nor current developments sanction optimism.
27
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