The State of Collaborative Delivery: WDBC Research Results€¦ · DBIA RMR 2017 – WDBC Research...

DBIA RMR 2017 – WDBC Research Results Portions © 2017 Water Design-Build Council

The State of Collaborative Delivery:

WDBC Research Results

1

DBIA RMR 2017 – WDBC Research Results Portions © 2017 Water Design-Build Council 2

WDBC MissionTo evolve best practices for successful

implementation of water projects through collaborative delivery methods, by facilitating thought leadership with stakeholders through

research, education and communication.

Chartered in 2006 A 501 C (6) non-profit corporation

Membership Supported

MA


WDBC Education Platform

3

•Handbook, 4th Edition, 2016•Procurement Guides• CMAR• Progressive Design-Build (PDB)• Fixed Price Design Build (FPDB)•Original Research•Publications, Community Forums, and Blogs•DBIA Partnership• Best Practices•W/WW Specialty Conference• PDB Contract Document

MA


WDBC Advisor Program

4


Where the market has been

WDBC 2017 Research Program

The first data of its kind

Research Scope

Where DB is headed

Market Forecast

Design-Build Trends

What it means for youWhere Next?


Research Objectives and Team


Research Approach: Look Back...and Look Forward

7





Research Scope

Where DB is headed

Market Forecast

Design-Build Trends



Background, Trends, and Drivers

9


• Award rate at approx. 100 projects/year • Total project cost - $18.2B • “Other” client category includes

USACE

Look Back to 2013 Indicates Uptick in Market

Highlights

• 8 companies reporting

• 424 projects reported awarded and under construction

• WW entities leading with 198 projects, W entities at 110

Our look back is based on portal project profiles, web-based sources, and WDBC member survey of DB project activity in the 2013-2016 post-recession period.

Total Project Cost (US$M)

'- 0

50

100

150

200

$- 0

$2,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

Wastewater Water Combination Other

Count of Projects Total Project Cost

1110681486

44191400015531742551

7130971724

21

95110

198198

11095

21

Number of Projects Announced and Awarded to Members YoY

'- 0

30

60

90

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2

119

1029798

51


Historic Trend 2103-29017

11


Majority of DB Projects are W and WW Treatment

Total Project Cost (US$M)

'- 0

45

90

135

180

Mill

ions

$- 0

$2,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

W C

atego

ry I =

Tran

smiss

ion

W C

atego

ry II =

Sou

rce

W C

atego

ry III

= Tre

atmen

t

W C

atego

ry IV

= S

torag

e

W C

atego

ry V

= Ot

her

WW

Cate

gory

I = S

econ

dary

Was

tewate

r Tre

atmen

t

WW

Cate

gory

II = A

dvan

ced W

astew

ater T

reatm

ent

WW

Cate

gory

III =

Conv

eyan

ce S

ystem

Rep

air

WW

Cate

gory

IV =

New

Con

veya

nce S

ystem

s

WW

Cate

gory

V =

Comb

ined S

ewer

Ove

rflow

WW

Cate

gory

VI =

Stor

mwate

r Man

agem

ent P

rogr

am

WW

Cate

gory

X =

Recy

cled (

Reus

e) W

ater D

istrib

ution

Count of ProjectsTotal Project Cost

1950000006300000672000000

197005075412990000

7047172997

1484800000

43898148685500000

5966286204

1486500000

20000000053

11823

179

42

165

96

231313

23

96

516

42

179

238 11

3 5

Treatment projects lead in value and count, amounting to nearly 78% of all projects (WW: 47% and W: 33%). Advanced treatment leads at 38% of all projects. Source water projects are at around 9%.





Research Scope

Where DB is headed

Market Forecast

Design-Build Trends



Forecast Model Framework

Forecast national total W/WW capital expenditures in

2017-2021.

Break down by state, project category, and year

Not to scale

Estimated proportion that could be DB based on how

active the DB market is/could be in each state

W/WW Capex by State in 2014

Estimated proportion that could be DB based on

major project categories Adjust forecasts

based on historic trends, “Top 100” CIPs, and utility

interviews

Apply Decision Rules by

State and Project Type

Objective: Develop a spreadsheet tool to forecast the water and wastewater design-build market over the next five years, 2017-2021, based on best available, internally consistent national databases and decision rules extracted from market experience

Sources:

• US Bureau of the Census

• State/EPA Needs Surveys

• WDBC Member Opinions

• Analyses of WDBC Projects

• Top 100 Database


Market Capex Forecast

Forecasts By:

• Water vs Wastewater • State • Type of Project

Source Data: • US Bureau of the Census • State/EPA Needs Surveys

Methods: • 7 models • Best fit (least sq.

residuals)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Billio

ns o

f 201

6 do

llars

Total Water and Wastewater Capital Outlays in the U.S.Estimated Actual Capital Outlays Forecasted Capital Outlays

Data source on estimates of actual capital outlays of loval governments up to 2014: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances and Census of Governments (1995 - 2014). Capital outlays are extrapolated to include non-governmental owned utilities by using per-capita outlay ratios. Forecasts (2015 - 2021) are based on trends in each state's capital outlays in recent years or in years prior to 2010. Real spending is shown after adjusting nominal spending to their 2016 dollar equivalent using CCI adjustment factors.


Design-Build Market Forecast ($)

$6.6$6.2

$6.6 $6.9$7.7 $8.0 $8.3 $8.7 $9.0

$3.0 $2.8 $3.0 $3.1$3.5 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2$3.9 $3.7 $4.0 $4.3

$4.8 $5.1 $5.4 $5.8 $6.1

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

$9.0

$10.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billio

ns o

f 201

6 do

llars

Forecasted Potential Capital Outlays on Design-Build Water and Wastewater Projects throughout the U.S.

Range of low tohigh forecast

Point estimate


15% 15%16% 16% 16% 16% 16%

7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

9% 9%10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Perc

ent o

f fore

caste

d to

tal c

apita

l out

lays

Forecasted Proportion of Potential Capital Outlays on Design-Build Water and Wastewater Projects throughout the U.S.


Point estimate

Growth in Design-Build as Percent of Total Water and Wastewater Capex


Water and Wastewater Design-Build Forecasts

Water

Wastewater

Billi

ons

of 2

016

Dol

lars

$3.0 $2.9 $3.1 $3.2$3.6 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2

$1.2 $1.2 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 $1.6 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8$1.7 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.1 $2.2 $2.4 $2.5 $2.6

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billio

ns of

2016

dolla

rs

Forecasted Potential Capital Outlays on Design-Build WaterProjects throughout the U.S.


Point estimate

$3.7$3.3

$3.5 $3.7$4.1 $4.3 $4.5 $4.7 $4.8

$1.7 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8$2.0 $2.1 $2.2 $2.3 $2.4$2.2 $2.0 $2.2 $2.3

$2.7 $2.8 $3.0 $3.2 $3.5

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billio

ns of

2016

dolla

rs

Forecasted Potential Capital Outlays on Design-Build WastewaterProjects throughout the U.S.


Point estimate


2017 Design Build Market by Type of Project


Top Ten State Water Design-Build Markets in 2017


Top Ten State Wastewater Design-Build Markets in 2017


FL, CA Lead in Number of Projects,TX in Project Value





Research Scope

Where DB is headed

Market Forecast

Design-Build Trends



How to Interpret the Forecast“High forecast” on how much may be spent on DB projectsDetermined as the fraction of forecasted total capital outlays that reflect projects that, forward-looking, are expected to be DB (A1 and A2-type projects) and other projects that have characteristics that make them potential projects for DB (B-type projects). This is adjusted for each state (based on how strong the DB market will be in each state) and for each project type (based on forward-looking C.I.P. data obtained from the Top 100 utilities).

“Low forecast” on how much may be spent on DB projectsDetermined from decision rules by state that computed a total DB outlay in 2016 of $3.5 billion, which is the estimated annualized revenue collected by WDBC members in 2016, extrapolated to a national total assuming that WDBC members constitute 60% of all DB revenues for water and wastewater projects. The decision rules by state also reflect how strong the DB market will be in each state, according to WDBC member ratings.

“Point estimate” on how much may be spent on DB projectsThis reflects our single-value estimate of the DB forecasts. It is the point between the low and high forecasts that, in 2016, estimates $4.1 billion in DB outlays, which is a more aggressive estimate of the annualized revenues collected by WDBC members for DB projects, extrapolated to a national total assuming that WDBC members constitute 60% of all DB revenues for water and wastewater projects. The scale between the low and high forecasts increases by 7.5% each year to reflect growth within some states.


15% 15%16% 16% 16% 16% 16%

7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

9% 9%10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Perc

ent o

f fore

caste

d to

tal c

apita

l out

lays

Forecasted Proportion of Potential Capital Outlays on Design-Build Water and Wastewater Projects throughout the U.S.


Point estimate

Growth in Design-Build as Percent of Total Water and Wastewater Capex

This is your opportunity


WDBC Education Platform

26

•Handbook, 4th Edition, 2016•Procurement Guides• CMAR• Progressive Design-Build (PDB)• Fixed Price Design Build (FPDB)•Original Research•Publications, Community Forums, and Blogs•DBIA Partnership• Best Practices•W/WW Specialty Conference• PDB Contract Document

MA

http://waterdesignbuild.com/knowledge-center/research/

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The State of Collaborative Delivery: WDBC Research Results€¦ · DBIA RMR 2017 – WDBC Research...

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