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Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture
The State ofFood andAgriculture 2
016
#sofa16
Rob VosFAO
February 2016
#sofa16
Challenges to world food security
• Global food production needs to increase by 60%by 2050
• Natural resource limits (such as land availability) mean most growth (80%) has to come from yield increases (intensification)
• … even withoutaccounting for climate change
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Near East/North Africa
Latin America & the Caribbean
East Asia
Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases
Projected sources of growth in crop production, 2005/07 - 2050
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision. Rome, FAO.
#sofa16
• Climate change will affect food availability through adverse impact on yields and production
• Impacts on crop yields vary by crop, region, model, scenario and time frame
• Models that project farther into the future show more severe adverse impacts
Projected changes in crop yields (mostly wheat, maize, rice and soy) due to climate change over the 21st century
Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.
The climate challenge to agriculture & food security
#sofa16
The climate challenge to agriculture & food security
… also impacts on
Access to foodImpact on rural incomes and livelihoodsImpact on real food prices
UtilizationDiets, nutritional quality of foods, food safety
StabilityIncreased climate variability means less stable food supply
Policy ChoicesNo climate
changeWith
climate changeLow-impact High-impact
Prosperity Scenario 142 mln + 3 mln + 16 mlnPoverty Scenario 900 mln + 35 mln + 122 mln
Source: World Bank, 2015 and Rozenberg and Hallegatte, forthcoming
Climate change threatens to worsen poverty,(# people in extreme poverty by 2030)
… agriculture would be the main driver
#sofa16
Agriculture major contributor to climate change
“AFOLU” contributes about one quarter of global GHG emissions, though the share has decreased
27%
8%
32%
19%
14%
1990s
Ag, Forestry & other land use
Buildings
Energy
Industry
Transport
22%
7%
36%
20%
15%
2000s
Ag, Forestry & other land useBuildingsEnergyIndustryTransport
Share of emissions by economic sector, 1990s and 2000s
Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.
#sofa16
Agriculture major contributor to climate change
Wide regional disparities in sources and contributions to GHG emissions
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
AFOLU Emissions Average for 2010-2012, by region
Agriculture Forest sinks Net Forest Conversion Other land use
Billions of tons CO2 equiv.
Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.
#sofa16
Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture
The future ain’t what it used to be…
• Hunger and climate change must be addressed hand-in-hand
• Climate change is already affecting yields and rural livelihoods, especially in developing countries, requiring immediate resilience and adaptation efforts
• Agriculture has large mitigation potential
• Responses can simultaneously address both adaptation and mitigation
• “Sustainable intensification” of agriculture is required to secure global food security
#sofa16
What needs to be done? What can be done?
Key questions for SOFA 2016
• What is special about climate change and agriculture?• Can we achieve sufficient “sustainable intensification”
and build enough resilience to climate change? • How can we make adaptation and mitigation move
together?• What does this mean for the near 500 million
smallholder farmers around the world?• What are the implications for investments, finance and
governance of global agriculture and food security?
#sofa16
Coping with climate change in agriculture
• Sustainable intensification combines “adaptation” and “mitigation” responses (“climate smart agriculture”, CSA)
• Agriculture and food systems need to respond by
• Increasing resilience in agroecosystems and socioeconomic systems
• Improving carbon and nitrogen management in agriculture
• Sustainability along whole food value chain and trade networks
• Addressing climate impacts associated with dietary transition
#sofa16
Adaptation and mitigation through sustainable food and agriculture
SFA Principle Relevance to CC Key practices that address CC A & M benefits
Resilience CC is non-linear; higher variability
Risk management A: higher economic stabilityEmergency response M: reduced GHG impact of
crisesBuild adaptive capacity
Improve livelihoods & equity Adapted smallholder systems Overcoming barriers to increasing resilience/resource use efficiency
A: higher ag and non ag returns potential resource savings
Consumption and diets Healthy, CC-sensitive dietary choices
M: lower emissions through lower dietary footprints
Resource use efficiency Emission intensity Better transformation of C, N, water, land into products
A: reduced costs; higher incomeM: lower emission intensity
Protection of resources Sinks Build environmental services and productive capacities (soils, water, vegetation)
A: more productive resources; higher incomeM: carbon sequestration
Governance Institutions; finance; human assets
Inclusion; access; credit and prices; capacity building
A: more targeted measuresM: better consideration of CC impacts
#sofa16
Challenges and opportunities for smallholders
• Is sustainable intensification a “win-win” option for smallholders?
• “Hard responses”: infrastructure, finance, access to technology, agribusiness development
• “Soft responses”: social protection, producer organizations, institutions and governance
• Cost of building resilience into agricultural systems large, but much lower than cost of inaction
• Support to smallholder farmers needs to go hand in hand with broader rural development
Source: World Bank, 2015
#sofa16
Governance for sustainable food security
• Targeted support food producers – especially smallholders
• Support collective action
• Manage risks
• Integrate agriculture into climate change strategies
• Promote sustainable food consumption
• Enhance contribution of markets and trade
• Strengthen international cooperation
#sofa16
COP21 provides entries to act on all of the above
• Priority to food security and ending hunger (preamble)
• Mechanism for voluntary cooperation (article 6)
• Enhancing understanding of loss and damage – inter alia through the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (article 8)
• Financial resources (article 9)
• Technology transfer (article 10)
• Capacity building (article 11)
… but we need to further explore feasible pathways for sustainable food security and agriculture
Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture
The State ofFood andAgriculture 2
016
#sofa16
Forthcoming in October 2016
#sofa16
SOFA 2016: Climate change, food security and agriculture
Annex: Referenced slides
#sofa16Source: World Bank, 2015. Shock Waves: Managing the impacts of climate change on poverty. Washington DC, The World Bank.
#sofa16
Sources of GHG emissions by agriculture
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
Largest source of agricultural emissions
Enteric Fermentation
(39%)
Enteric Fermentation
(50%)
Enteric Fermentation
(33%)
Enteric Fermentation
(38%)
Enteric Fermentation
(34%)
Second largest sourceManure left on Pasture (28%)
Manure left on Pasture (20%)
Synthetic Fertilizers
(20%)
Manure Management
(16%)
Burning -Savanna (34%)
Third largest sourceBurning -
Savanna (21%)
Synthetic Fertilizers
(11%)
Rice Cultivation
(19%)
Synthetic Fertilizers
(15%)
Manure left on Pasture (20%)
Three largest sources of agricultural emissions, by region
Source: FAOSTAT, 2015