TheStateofIPv6GeoffHuston

ChiefScientist,APNICLabs

Up and to the Right…

2013 2015 2017

9% of users have IPv6

But not everywhere

62%

IPv6 Deployments in 2016Sky

Jio (Reliance)

Claro

OTE

Where are the IPv6 Gaps?

Eastern Europe

Most of Asia

Africa

Where are the IPv6 Gaps?

Eastern Europe

Most of Asia

Africa

The Dual Stack Transition

Time

Population of the Internet IPv6 Deployment

We are here!

The Dual Stack Transition

Time

Population of the Internet IPv6 Deployment

IPv4 DeploymentCrunch

Time!

The next few years…

SofarwehavebeenconvertingsinglestackIPv4toDualStack(addingIPv6)

AtsomepointinthenearfuturesomeproviderswillstopsupportingIPv4andofferIPv6onlyservices

Noone willwaituntilthelastIPv4-onlyuserhasshiftedtoDualStack– thiswillhappenwellbeforethat

WhenwillremainingIPv4-onlyusers,networksandserviceswillbeleftstrandedinavisiblysmallersubsetoftheInternet?

This“CrunchTime”willbedeterminedbymarketforcesandeconomicpressures

A GDP-based Market Valuation of IPv4 and IPv6 Service Providers

ASN Name CC Users V4Value($B) V6Users V6Value($B)1 AS7922 COMCAST-7922-ComcastCableCommunications,Inc. US 53,000,000 2,900 34,000,000 1,8672 AS4134 CHINANET-BACKBONENo.31,Jin-rongStreet CN 311,000,000 2,334 1,000,000 113 AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4-ATTServices,Inc. US 29,000,000 1,616 24,000,000 1,3074 AS4837 CHINA169-BACKBONECNCGROUPChina169Backbone CN 159,000,000 1,196 0 35 AS3320 DTAGDeutscheTelekomAG DE 21,000,000 1,020 10,000,000 5236 AS701 UUNET-MCICommunicationsServices,Inc.dbaVerizonBusiness US 15,000,000 856 0 57 AS3215 AS3215OrangeS.A. FR 18,000,000 817 4,000,000 1828 AS17676 GIGAINFRASoftbankBBCorp. JP 20,000,000 728 5,000,000 2139 AS4713 OCNNTTCommunicationsCorporation JP 18,000,000 689 1,000,000 4110 AS20115 CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC-CharterCommunications US 12,000,000 677 0 111 AS22773 ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC-CoxCommunicationsInc. US 11,000,000 634 4,000,000 22412 AS2516 KDDIKDDICORPORATION JP 17,000,000 623 8,000,000 29313 AS5607 BSKYB-BROADBAND-ASSkyUKLimited GB 13,000,000 623 11,000,000 52314 AS2856 BT-UK-ASBritishTelecommunicationsPLC GB 13,000,000 609 1,000,000 4815 AS5089 NTLVirginMediaLimited GB 12,000,000 560 0 016 AS12322 PROXADFreeSAS FR 12,000,000 552 3,000,000 15317 AS1221 ASN-TELSTRATelstraPtyLtd AU 9,000,000 546 1,000,000 9618 AS3269 ASN-IBSNAZTelecomItaliaS.p.a. IT 12,000,000 447 0 019 AS22394 CELLCO-CellcoPartnershipDBAVerizonWireless US 8,000,000 442 7,000,000 40020 AS3209 VODANETVodafoneGmbH DE 9,000,000 432 0 0

TOTAL 3,275,934,751 51,797 263,017,762 9,496

18%

Market Dynamics

Attheendof2016,theDualStackuserpopulationrepresentsatotalGDP-basedvalueof$9.4T,or18%ofthetotalvalueoftheInternet’sIPv4userbase

IfweusedARPUorsimilarmetricsrelatingtorevenueandmargins,therecentmobile-basedDualStacknetworkswouldcarryafarhigherrelativevalueperuserthanolderwirelinenetworks,sothisisalowboundestimateoftheIPv6valuebase

WhatisthethresholdvaluethatwouldallowaserviceprovidertooperateaIPv6-onlyserviceandwriteofftheresidualIPv4-onlyloss?

“CrunchTime”happenswhenwereachthatthreshold!

It’spossiblethatwecouldstarttoseethisshiftinthecoming12months

Itsverylikelythatthiswillhappenwithin24months

Thanks!