The Dual Stack Transition
Time
Population of the Internet IPv6 Deployment
IPv4 DeploymentCrunch
Time!
The next few years…
SofarwehavebeenconvertingsinglestackIPv4toDualStack(addingIPv6)
AtsomepointinthenearfuturesomeproviderswillstopsupportingIPv4andofferIPv6onlyservices
Noone willwaituntilthelastIPv4-onlyuserhasshiftedtoDualStack– thiswillhappenwellbeforethat
WhenwillremainingIPv4-onlyusers,networksandserviceswillbeleftstrandedinavisiblysmallersubsetoftheInternet?
This“CrunchTime”willbedeterminedbymarketforcesandeconomicpressures
A GDP-based Market Valuation of IPv4 and IPv6 Service Providers
ASN Name CC Users V4Value($B) V6Users V6Value($B)1 AS7922 COMCAST-7922-ComcastCableCommunications,Inc. US 53,000,000 2,900 34,000,000 1,8672 AS4134 CHINANET-BACKBONENo.31,Jin-rongStreet CN 311,000,000 2,334 1,000,000 113 AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4-ATTServices,Inc. US 29,000,000 1,616 24,000,000 1,3074 AS4837 CHINA169-BACKBONECNCGROUPChina169Backbone CN 159,000,000 1,196 0 35 AS3320 DTAGDeutscheTelekomAG DE 21,000,000 1,020 10,000,000 5236 AS701 UUNET-MCICommunicationsServices,Inc.dbaVerizonBusiness US 15,000,000 856 0 57 AS3215 AS3215OrangeS.A. FR 18,000,000 817 4,000,000 1828 AS17676 GIGAINFRASoftbankBBCorp. JP 20,000,000 728 5,000,000 2139 AS4713 OCNNTTCommunicationsCorporation JP 18,000,000 689 1,000,000 4110 AS20115 CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC-CharterCommunications US 12,000,000 677 0 111 AS22773 ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC-CoxCommunicationsInc. US 11,000,000 634 4,000,000 22412 AS2516 KDDIKDDICORPORATION JP 17,000,000 623 8,000,000 29313 AS5607 BSKYB-BROADBAND-ASSkyUKLimited GB 13,000,000 623 11,000,000 52314 AS2856 BT-UK-ASBritishTelecommunicationsPLC GB 13,000,000 609 1,000,000 4815 AS5089 NTLVirginMediaLimited GB 12,000,000 560 0 016 AS12322 PROXADFreeSAS FR 12,000,000 552 3,000,000 15317 AS1221 ASN-TELSTRATelstraPtyLtd AU 9,000,000 546 1,000,000 9618 AS3269 ASN-IBSNAZTelecomItaliaS.p.a. IT 12,000,000 447 0 019 AS22394 CELLCO-CellcoPartnershipDBAVerizonWireless US 8,000,000 442 7,000,000 40020 AS3209 VODANETVodafoneGmbH DE 9,000,000 432 0 0
TOTAL 3,275,934,751 51,797 263,017,762 9,496
18%
Market Dynamics
Attheendof2016,theDualStackuserpopulationrepresentsatotalGDP-basedvalueof$9.4T,or18%ofthetotalvalueoftheInternet’sIPv4userbase
IfweusedARPUorsimilarmetricsrelatingtorevenueandmargins,therecentmobile-basedDualStacknetworkswouldcarryafarhigherrelativevalueperuserthanolderwirelinenetworks,sothisisalowboundestimateoftheIPv6valuebase
WhatisthethresholdvaluethatwouldallowaserviceprovidertooperateaIPv6-onlyserviceandwriteofftheresidualIPv4-onlyloss?
“CrunchTime”happenswhenwereachthatthreshold!
It’spossiblethatwecouldstarttoseethisshiftinthecoming12months
Itsverylikelythatthiswillhappenwithin24months