1
The Status of COThe Status of CO22 CaptureCaptureand Storage Technologyand Storage Technology
Edward S. RubinDepartment of Engineering and Public Policy
Department of Mechanical EngineeringCarnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Presentation to theNational Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, Colorado
July 12, 2010E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Outline of TalkOutline of Talk
• Why the interest in CCS?• Status of current CCS technology
• Current cost estimates• Potential for cost reductions
Why the interest in CCS ?Why the interest in CCS ?(Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration)(Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Motivation for CCSMotivation for CCS
• Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations will require large reductions in CO2 emissions. But …
• Fossil fuels will continue to be used for many decades —alternatives not able to substitute quickly
• CCS is the ONLY way to get large CO2 reductions from fossil fuel use—a potential bridging strategy
• CCS can also help decarbonize the transportation sector via low-carbon electricity and hydrogen from fossil fuels
• Energy models show that without CCS, the cost of mitigating climate change will be much higher
2
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
CostCost--Effective Global Strategies Effective Global Strategies Require CCS in the PortfolioRequire CCS in the Portfolio
Source: IPCC, 2007
Models show increasing need for CCS as stabilization goal tightens
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trill
ions
of 1
990
US
$ D
isco
unte
d to
200
5
450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm
Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trill
ions
of 1
990
US
$ D
isco
unte
d to
200
5
450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm
Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available
Source: J. Edmonds, PNNL, 2008
Without CCS the cost of stabilization increases sharply
Status of CCS technology Status of CCS technology
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Schematic of a CCS SystemSchematic of a CCS System
Power Plantor Industrial
Process
Air orOxygen
CarbonaceousFuels
UsefulProducts
(Electricity, Fuels,Chemicals, Hydrogen)
CO2
CO2Capture &Compress
CO2Transport
CO2 Storage (Sequestration)
- Post-combustion- Pre-combustion- Oxyfuel combustion
- Pipeline- Tanker
- Depleted oil/gas fields- Deep saline formations- Unmineable coal seams- Ocean- Mineralization- Reuse
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Many Ways to Capture COMany Ways to Capture CO22
MEACausticOther
Chemical
SelexolRectisolOther
Physical
Absorption
AluminaZeoliteActivated C
Adsorber Beds
Pressure SwingTemperature SwingWashing
Regeneration Method
Adsorption Cryogenics
PolyphenyleneoxidePolydimethylsiloxane
Gas Separation
Polypropelene
Gas Absorption
Ceramic BasedSystems
Membranes Microbial/AlgalSystems
CO2 Separation and Capture
Choice of technology depends strongly on application
3
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Leading Candidates for CCSLeading Candidates for CCS
• Fossil fuel power plants Pulverized coal combustion (PC) Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) Integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
• Other large industrial sources of CO2 such as: Refineries, fuel processing, and petrochemical plants Hydrogen and ammonia production plants Pulp and paper plants Cement plants
– Main focus is on power plants, the dominant source of CO2 –
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: PrePre--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture
Electricity
ShiftReactor
SulfurRemoval
CombinedCycle Power
Plant
O2
Air
CO2
H2Quench System
H2
H2O Air
SulfurRecovery
GasifierCoal
H2O
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 Capture
Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2
SeparationCO2
CompressionCO2
Stac
k
Flue gasto atmosphereElectricityElectricity
ShiftReactor
SulfurRemoval
CombinedCycle Power
Plant
O2
Air
CO2
H2Quench System
H2
H2O Air
SulfurRecovery
GasifierCoal
H2O
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 Capture
Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2
SeparationCO2
CompressionCO2
ShiftReactor
SulfurRemoval
CombinedCycle Power
Plant
O2
Air
CO2
H2Quench System
H2
H2O Air
SulfurRecovery
GasifierCoal
H2O
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 Capture
Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2
SeparationCO2
CompressionCO2
Stac
k
Flue gasto atmosphere
Stac
kSt
ack
Flue gasto atmosphere
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: PostPost--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture
Coal
Air
Steam
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControl Systems (NOx, PM, SO2)
CO2 Capture PC Boiler MostlyN2 S
tack
Flue gasto atmosphere
Amine/CO2AmineCO2 tostorageAmine/CO2
SeparationCO2
Compression
CO2
Coal
Air
Steam
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControl Systems (NOx, PM, SO2)
CO2 Capture PC Boiler MostlyN2 S
tack
Flue gasto atmosphere
Amine/CO2AmineCO2 tostorageAmine/CO2
SeparationCO2
Compression
CO2
Also for NGCC plants
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: OxyOxy--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture
Coal
Steam
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControl Systems ( NOx, PM, SO2)
Distillation System
PC Boiler
CO2 tostorageCO2
Compression
CO2
Air
O2
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
Sta
ck
To atmosphere
H2OCO2
Water
Coal
Steam
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControl Systems ( NOx, PM, SO2)
Distillation System
PC Boiler
CO2 tostorageCO2
Compression
CO2CO2 tostorageCO2
Compression
CO2
AirAir
O2
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycleO2
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
Sta
ck
To atmosphere
Sta
ck
To atmosphere
H2OCO2
H2OCO2
Water
4
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Geological Storage Options
Source: IPCC, 2005E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Status of CCS Technology Status of CCS Technology
• Pre- and post-combustion CO2 capture technologies are commercial and widely used in industrial processes; also at several gas-fired and coal-fired power plants, at small scale (~40 MW); CO2 capture efficiencies are typically 85-90%. Oxyfuel capture is still under development.
• CO2 transport via pipelines is a mature technology.
• Geological storage of CO2 is commercial on a limited basis, mainly for EOR; several projects in deep saline formations are operating at scales of ~1 Mt CO2 /yr.
• Large-scale integration of CO2 capture, transport and geological sequestration has been demonstrated at several industrial sites (outside the U.S.) — but not yet at an electric power plant at full-scale.
Coal Gasification to Produce SNG(Beulah, North Dakota, USA)
(Sou
rce:
Dak
ota
Gas
ifica
tion
Petcoke Gasification to Produce H2(Coffeyville, Kansas, USA)
(Sou
rce:
Che
vron
-Tex
aco)
Examples of Pre-CombustionCO2 Capture Systems
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: Elcano, 2007
Puertollano IGCC Plant (Spain)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Source: Nuon, 2009
Buggenhum IGCC Plant
(The Netherlands)
Pre-Combustion Capture at IGCC Plants
Pilot plants under construction at two IGCC plants (startup expected in late 2010)
5
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Post-Combustion Technology for Industrial CO2 Capture
BP Natural Gas Processing Plant(In Salah, Algeria)
Source: IEA GHG, 2008
Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at a Gas-Fired Power Plant
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
(Sou
rce:
Flo
ur D
anie
l)
Bellingham Cogeneration Plant(Bellingham, Massachusetts, USA)
(Sou
rce:
Sue
z Ene
rgy
Gen
erat
ion)
)
Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at Coal-Fired Power Plants
Warrior Run Power Plant(Cumberland, Maryland, USA)
(Sou
rce:
(IEA
GH
G)
Shady Point Power Plant(Panama, Oklahoma, USA)
(Sou
rce:
ABB
Lum
mus
)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: Vattenfall, 2008
Oxy-Combustion CO2 Capture from a Coal-Fired Boiler
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
30 MWt Pilot Plant (~10 MWe) at Vattenfall Schwarze Pumpe Station
(Germany)
6
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: NRDCSource: USDOE/Battelle
> 3000 miles of pipeline~40 MtCO2/yr transported
CO2 Pipelines in the Western U.S.
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
LargeLarge--Scale CCS ProjectsScale CCS Projects
0.72008SalineFormationStatoilHydroSnohvit
(Norway)
1.22004Depleted Gas Field
Sonatrach, BP, StatoilHydro
In Salah(Algeria)
1.2*2000Oil Field(EOR)EnCanaWeyburn
(Canada)
1.0 1996SalineFormationStatoilHydroSleipner
(Norway)
Injection Rate
(MtCO2/yr )Injection
Start DateGeological ReservoirOperatorProject
* Average rate over 15 year contract. Recent expansion to ~3 Mt/yr for Weyburn + Midale field..
Sleipner Project (Norway)
Source: Statoil
Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Deep Saline Formation
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Snohvit LNG Project (Norway)
Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Deep Saline Formation
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: www.Snohvit, 2009
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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: BP
Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Depleted Gas Formation
G a s
W a t e r
4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n
W e l l s
3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n
W e l l s
P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s
R e m o v a l
T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a
G a s
W a t e r
4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n
W e l l s
3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n
W e l l s
P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s
R e m o v a l
T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a
G a s
W a t e r
4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n
W e l l s
3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n
W e l l s
P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s
R e m o v a l
G a s
W a t e r
4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n
W e l l s
3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n
W e l l s
P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s
R e m o v a l
G a s
W a t e r
4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n
W e l l s
3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n
W e l l s
P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s
R e m o v a l
T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a
Krechba
Teg
Reg
Garet elBefinat Hassi MoumeneIn Salah
Gour Mahmoud
Proposed ISG PipelineREB
Hassi BirRekaiz
Hassi Messaoud
Hassi R’Mel
Tiguentourine (BP)
02151093
Algiers
Tangiers
Lisbon
Cordoba
Cartagena
M O R O C C O
A L G E R I A
S P A I N
L I B Y A
MAURITANIA M A L I
SkikdaTunis
N I G E R
In Salah Project
Krechba
Teg
Reg
Garet elBefinat Hassi MoumeneIn Salah
Gour Mahmoud
Proposed ISG PipelineREB
Hassi BirRekaiz
Hassi Messaoud
Hassi R’Mel
Tiguentourine (BP)
02151093
Algiers
Tangiers
Lisbon
Cordoba
Cartagena
M O R O C C O
A L G E R I A
S P A I N
L I B Y A
MAURITANIA M A L I
SkikdaTunis
N I G E R
In Salah Project
In Salah /Krechba (Algeria)
Geological Formations in North America
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Deep Saline FormationsOil & Gas Fields
Source: NETL, 2009
Dakota Coal Gasification Plant, NDRegina
Bismarck
North Dakota
Saskatchewan CanadaUSA
WeyburnWeyburn
COCO22
Regina
Bismarck
North Dakota
Saskatchewan CanadaUSA
WeyburnWeyburn
COCO22Sources: IEAGHG; NRDC; USDOE
Weyburn Field, Canada
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Geological Storage of Captured CO2 with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)
CCS at a Coal-Fired Power Plant with Storage in a Deep Saline Formation
(Pilot plant scale)
Source: AEP, 2009
20 MW capture unit at AEP’s Mountaineer
Power Plant(West Virginia)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
8
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Still MissingStill Missing• Full-scale power plant demo #1• Full-scale power plant demo #2• Full-scale power plant demo #3• Full-scale power plant demo #4• Full-scale power plant demo #5• Full-scale power plant demo #6• Full-scale power plant demo #7• Full-scale power plant demo #8• Full-scale power plant demo #9• Full-scale power plant demo #10
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
FullFull--Scale Demonstration Projects Scale Demonstration Projects Are Urgently Needed to . . . Are Urgently Needed to . . .
• Establish the reliability, safety and true cost of CCS in full-scale power plant applications
• Help resolve legal and regulatory issues regarding geological sequestration
• Help address issues of public acceptance• Begin reducing future costs via learning-by-doing
Financing large-scale projects has been a major hurdle
- Cost per project ≈ $1 billion (install/operate CCS, 400 MW, 5 yrs)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Many projects are planned or underway at various scales
• Map shows operating plus proposed or planned projects in the U.S. and Canada. They encompass power plants, industrial sources and research projects spanning a large range of scale.
Source: DOE, 2009E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Substantial CCS Activity Globally
Source: DOE, 2009
9
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
One Example:One Example:IGCC Demonstration in ChinaIGCC Demonstration in China
Partners include: China Datang Corp., China State Development and Investment Corp., China GuodianCorp., China Huadian Corp., China Power Investment Corp., China National Coal Group and ShenhuaGroup, Peabody Energy
The The GreenGenGreenGen ProjectProject(Tianjin, China)(Tianjin, China)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Roadmaps for CCS DeploymentRoadmaps for CCS Deployment
Commercialization expected by 2020
EPRI Roadmap
DOE Roadmap
20102008 20162012 2020 2024
Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D
Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos
CCS Commercialization
Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing
Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation
Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment
20102008 20162012 2020 2024
Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D
Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos
CCS Commercialization
Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing
Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation
Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment
Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D
Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos
CCS Commercialization
Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing
Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation
Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment
The cost of CCSThe cost of CCS
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Many Factors Affect CCS CostsMany Factors Affect CCS Costs• Choice of Power Plant and CCS Technology• Process Design and Operating Variables• Economic and Financial Parameters• Choice of System Boundaries; e.g.,
One facility vs. multi-plant system (regional, national, global) GHG gases considered (CO2 only vs. all GHGs) Power plant only vs. partial or complete life cycle
• Time Frame of Interest First-of-a-kind plant vs. nth plant Current technology vs. future systems Consideration of technological “learning”
10
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Common Measures of CostCommon Measures of Cost
($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)reference
(CO2/MWh)ref – (CO2/MWh)ccs
• Cost of CO2 Avoided ($/ton CO2 avoided)
=
• Cost of Electricity (COE) ($/MWh)(TCC)(FCF) + FOM
(CF)(8760)(MW) + VOM + (HR)(FC)=
Also: - Cost of CO2 Captured ($/ton CO2 captured)- Cost of CO2 Reduced/Abated ($/ton CO2 abated)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Ten Ways to Reduce Estimated Cost Ten Ways to Reduce Estimated Cost (inspired by D. Letterman)(inspired by D. Letterman)
10. Assume high power plant efficiency 9. Assume high-quality fuel properties8. Assume low fuel cost7. Assume EOR credits for CO2 storage6. Omit certain capital costs5. Report $/ton CO2 based on short tons4. Assume long plant lifetime3. Assume low interest rate (discount rate)2. Assume high plant utilization (capacity factor)1. Assume all of the above !
. . . and we have not yet considered the CCS technology!
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Sources of Recent Cost EstimatesSources of Recent Cost Estimates
• IPCC, 2005: Special Report on CCS
• Rubin, et.al, 2007: Energy Policy paper
• EPRI, 2007: Report No. 1014223
• DOE, 2007: Report DOE/NETL-2007/1281
• EPRI, 2008: Report No. 1018329
• DOE, 2009: Pgh Coal Conference Presentation
• DOE, 2010: Low-Rank Coal Study (forthcoming)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Estimated Cost of New Power Plants Estimated Cost of New Power Plants with and without CCSwith and without CCS
SCPC
IGCC
New Coal
Plants
20
40
60
80
100
120
Cos
t of E
lect
ricity
($ /
MW
h)
00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
CO2 Emission Rate (tonnes / MWh)
* 2007 costs for bituminous coals; gas price ≈ $4–7/GJ; 90% capture; aquifer storage
Current Coal
Plants
PC
NGCC
Natural Gas
Plants PlantswithCCS
SCPC
IGCC
NG
CC
11
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
DOE vs. DOE vs. EPRIEPRI
• EPRI’s capital costs ($/kW) are higher that DOE’s
• EPRI’s levelized costs of electricity ($/MWh) are lower than DOE’s
Source: EPRI, 2007
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Incremental Cost of CCS for New Incremental Cost of CCS for New Power Plants Using Current TechnologyPower Plants Using Current Technology
~ 30–50%~ 60–80%Increases in capital cost ($/kW) and generation cost ($/kWh)
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Plant
Supercritical Pulverized Coal Plant
Incremental Cost of CCS relative relative to same plant typeto same plant type without CCS
based on bituminous coals
The added cost to consumers due to CCS will be much smaller, reflecting the number and type of CCS plants in the generation mix at any given time.
Increase in levelized cost for 90% capture
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Typical Cost of COTypical Cost of CO22 AvoidedAvoided(Relative to a (Relative to a SCPC reference plantSCPC reference plant; bituminous coals); bituminous coals)
Cost reduced by ~ $20–30 /tCO2Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage
~ $50 /tCO2±$10/t
~ $70 /tCO2±$15/t
Deep aquifer storage
New Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle Plant
New Supercritical Pulverized Coal
Plant
Power Plant System (relative to a SCPC relative to a SCPC plant without CCS)plant without CCS)
• Capture accounts for most (~80%) of the total cost
Levelized cost in US$ per tonne COLevelized cost in US$ per tonne CO22 avoidedavoided
Source: Based on IPCC, 2005; Rubin et al, 2007; DOE, 2007
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
DOE Cost Results for LowDOE Cost Results for Low--Rank Rank Coals at Western Power PlantsCoals at Western Power Plants
Sour
ce: N
ETL,
200
9
12
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
High capture energy requirements High capture energy requirements is a major factor in high CCS costs is a major factor in high CCS costs
~15%New natural gas (NGCC)
15-20%New coal gasification (IGCC)
25-30%New supercritical PC
~40%Existing subcritical PC
Added fuel input (%) per net kWh outputPower Plant Type
Changes in plant efficiency due to CCS energy requirements also affect plant-level pollutant emission rates (per MWh). A site-specific context is needed to evaluate the net impacts.
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Breakdown of Breakdown of ““Energy PenaltyEnergy Penalty””for COfor CO22 Capture (SCPC and IGCC)Capture (SCPC and IGCC)
~10%Pumps, Fans, etc.
~30%CO2 Compression
~60%Thermal Energy
Approx. % of Total Reqm’tComponent
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Analyzing Options for Power PlantsAnalyzing Options for Power Plants(IECM: The (IECM: The IIntegrated ntegrated EEnvironmental nvironmental CControl ontrol MModel)odel)
• A desktop/laptop computer model developed for DOE/NETL; free and publicly available at: www.iecm-online.com
• Provides systematic estimates of performance, emissions, costs and uncertainties for preliminary design of:
PC, IGCC and NGCC plants All flue/fuel gas treatment systems CO2 capture and storage options
(pre- and post-combustion, oxy-combustion; transport, storage)
Major updates in late 2009 & 2010
The cost of COThe cost of CO22
transport and storagetransport and storage
13
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Pipeline Cost Model Pipeline Cost Model
• Multi-variate regression models based on data from 236 on-shore natural gas pipelines constructed in the U.S. from 1994 to 2003 Capital cost model is linear in pipe diameter,
logarithmic in pipe length; reported in $2004.
• Separate models for 6 regions
• Cost breakdowns for: Materials Labor Eng’g, Overheads, AFUDC Right-of-way
Modeling CO2 Transport by PipelineE.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Levelized Cost of Transport: Levelized Cost of Transport: Deterministic ResultsDeterministic Results
$2.20
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Levelized Cost of Transport:Levelized Cost of Transport:Probabilistic ResultsProbabilistic Results
Design CO2 Flow Rate 5 Mt/yLength 100 km (60 mi)
Modeling CO2 Transport by PipelineE.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Saline Formation Storage ModelSaline Formation Storage Model
Performance Inputs
Cost ModelInputs
Results
Results
14
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Illustrative Case StudiesIllustrative Case Studies
• Data from 4 sites, with kh values from 4,500 to 940,000 md·ft
• Capital recovery factor =15% for all cases
2394450744Permeability, k (md)1,5141,8501,5002,499Depth (m)
300
Sandstone
Frio FormationTexas
South Liberty
593091Net Sand, h (m)
SandstoneSandstoneSandstoneLithology
Mannville Aquifer
Viking AquiferPurdy Springer A
ReservoirAlbertaAlbertaOklahomaLocation
Lake Wabamun Area
Joffre-Viking Pool
Northeast Purdy Unit
Parameter
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Levelized Cost of COLevelized Cost of CO22 StorageStorage
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Levelized Cost of COLevelized Cost of CO22 Storage:Storage:Probabilistic ResultsProbabilistic Results
• Lake Wabamun Area Case Study
• Probability distributions assigned to:- 8 performance model parameters- 9 cost model parameters
• Bounds for performance parameter distributions based on reported field data (Alberta Geological Survey, 2006)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Capital Cost BreakdownCapital Cost Breakdown
Thin, high-permeability aquifer—requires large characterization area
15
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Full details in technical reports & papersFull details in technical reports & papers(available from IECM website)(available from IECM website)
What is the potential for lowerWhat is the potential for lower--cost capture technology? cost capture technology?
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
59 OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY
Better Capture Technologies Are Emerging
Time to Commercialization
Advanced physical solventsAdvanced chemical solventsAmmoniaCO2 com-pression
Amine solventsPhysical solventsCryogenic oxygen
Chemical loopingOTM boilerBiological processesCAR process
Ionic liquidsMetal organic frameworksEnzymatic membranes
Present
Cos
t Red
uctio
n B
enef
it
5+ years 10+ years 15+ years 20+ years
PBI membranes Solid sorbentsMembrane systemsITMsBiomass co-firing
Post-combustion (existing, new PC)
Pre-combustion (IGCC)
Oxycombustion (new PC)
CO2 compression (all)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Potential Cost SavingsPotential Cost Savings
• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis
A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvement in key parameters
16
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis
Source: DOE/NETL, 2006
19% -28% reductions in COE w/ CCS
3128
19
12 10
5 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
A B C D E F G
7.13(c/kWh)
7.01(c/kWh)
6.14(c/kWh) 6.03
(c/kWh)
5.75(c/kWh)
5.75(c/kWh)
6.52(c/kWh)
SelexolSelexolAdvanced
SelexolAdvanced
Selexol
AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration
AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration
AdvancedSelexol w/ITM
& co-Sequestration
AdvancedSelexol w/ITM
& co-Sequestration
WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration
WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration
WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-
Sequestration
WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-
Sequestration
Chemical Looping& Co-
Sequestration
Chemical Looping& Co-
Sequestration
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
in C
OE
IGCCIGCC70 69
5550 52
45
22
01020304050607080
A B C D E F G
`
8.77(c/kWh)
8.72(c/kWh)
8.00(c/kWh)
7.74(c/kWh)
7.48(c/kWh)
7.84(c/kWh)
y
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
in C
OE
SC w/AmineScrubbingSC w/AmineScrubbing
SC w/EconamineScrubbingSC w/EconamineScrubbing
SC w/AmmoniaCO2 ScrubbingSC w/AmmoniaCO2 Scrubbing
SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)
SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)
USC w/AmineScrubbingUSC w/AmineScrubbing USC w/Advanced
Amine ScrubbingUSC w/AdvancedAmine Scrubbing
6.30 (c/kWh)
RTI RegenerableSorbentRTI RegenerableSorbent
PCPC
50
3326
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
A B C D
`
6.97(c/kWh)
6.62(c/kWh)
6.35(c/kWh)
y y
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
in C
OE Advanced
Subcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)
AdvancedSubcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)
AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel
(Cryogenic ASU)
AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel
(Cryogenic ASU)Advanced
Supercritical Oxyfuel(ITM O2)
Advanced Supercritical
Oxyfuel(ITM O2)
7.86(c/kWh)
Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel
(Cryogenic ASU)
Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel
(Cryogenic ASU) OxyfuelOxyfuel
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: DOE/ NETL, 2010
Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
IGCC Today
IGCC w/ CCS Today
IGCC w/ CCS with R&D
Supercritical PC Today
Supercritical PC w/ CCS …
Adv Combustion w/ CCS …
$/M
Wh
($20
09)
CCSwith
NoR&D
NoCCS
CCSwith R&D
CCSwith
NoR&D
NoCCS
CCSwith R&D
Pulverized Coal TechnologiesIGCC Technologies
27% reduction31% reduction
7% below no CCS
29% above no CCS
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Future Technology CostsFuture Technology Costs
• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis
A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvements in key process parameters
• Method 2: Use of Historical Experience Curves
A “top down” approach based on applications of mathematical “learning curves” or “experience curves” that reflect historical trends for analogous technologies or systems
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Empirical Empirical ““Learning CurvesLearning Curves””
• Cost trends modeled as a log-linear relationship between unit cost and cumulative production or capacity: y = ax –b
• Case studies used for power plant components: Flue gas desulfurization systems (FGD) Selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR) Gas turbine combined cycle system (GTCC) Pulverized coal-fired boilers (PC) Liquefied natural gas plants (LNG) Oxygen production plants (ASU) Hydrogen production plants (SMR)
20000
10000
5000
1000
10010 100 1000 10000 100000
1982
1987
1963
1980
Windmills (USA)
RD&D Commercialization
USAJapan
Cumulative MW installed
19811983
500
Photovoltaics
Gas turbines (USA)
US(
1990
)$/k
W
19951992
200
2000
Source: IIASA, 1996
20000
10000
5000
1000
10010 100 1000 10000 100000
1982
1987
1963
1980
Windmills (USA)
RD&D Commercialization
USAJapan
Cumulative MW installed
19811983
500
Photovoltaics
Gas turbines (USA)
US(
1990
)$/k
W
19951992
200
2000
20000
10000
5000
1000
10010 100 1000 10000 100000
1982
1987
1963
1980
Windmills (USA)
RD&D Commercialization
USAJapan
Cumulative MW installed
19811983
500
Photovoltaics
Gas turbines (USA)
US(
1990
)$/k
W
19951992
200
2000
Source: IIASA, 1996
17
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Experience Curves for Case Study TechnologiesExperience Curves for Case Study Technologies
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on Learning Curve AnalysisLearning Curve Analysis **(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent R
educ
tion
in C
OE
NGCC PC IGCC Oxyfuel
% REDUCTION• Upper bound of
projected cost reduction are similar to estimates from DOE’s “bottom-up”analyses
* Plant-level learning curves developed from component-level analyses for each system
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Most New Capture Concepts Are Most New Capture Concepts Are Far from Commercial Availability Far from Commercial Availability
Source: NASA, 2009
Technology Readiness Levels
Source: EPRI, 2009
Post-Combustion Capture
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Most new concepts take decades to Most new concepts take decades to commercializecommercialize……many never make itmany never make it
1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000
1999: 10 MW pilot planned by DOE
1975: DOE conducts test of fluidized bed system
1961:Process described by Bureau of Mines
1973: Used in commercial refinery in Japan
1970: Results of testing published.
1971: Test conducted in Netherlands
1967: Pilot-Scale Testing begins.
1979: Pilot-scale testing conducted in Florida
1984: Continued pilot testing with 500 lb/hr feed
1992: DOE contracts design and modeling for 500MW plant
1996: DOE continues lifecycle testing
2002: Paper published at NETL symposium
2006: Most recent paper published
1983: Rockwell contracted to improve system
Copper Oxide Process
1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000
1999: Process used at plant in Poland
1985: Pilots initiated in U.S. and Germany
1977: Ebara begins pilot-scale testing
1998: Process used in plant in Chengdu, China
1970: Ebara Corporation begins lab scale testing.
2005: Process used in plant in Hangzhou, China
2008: Paper on process presented at WEC forum in Romania
2002: Process used in plant in Beijing, China
Electron Beam Process
1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000
1991: NoxsoCorporation receives DOE contract
1982: Pilot-scale tests carried out in Kentucky
1985: DOE conducts lifecycle testing.
1979: Development of process begins
1998: NoxsoCorporation liquidated. Project terminated.
1996: Construction of full scale test begins
2000: Noxsoprocess cited in ACS paper, Last NOXSO patent awarded
1997: NoxsoCorporation declares bankruptcy
1993: Pilot-scale testing complete
NOXSO Process
Development timelines for three novel processes for
combined SO2 –NOx capture
18
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
The Linear Model of Technological Change
Challenge 1:Challenge 1:Accelerate the Pace of InnovationAccelerate the Pace of Innovation
Invention Adoption DiffusionInnovation
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
A More Realistic ModelA More Realistic Model
InventionAdoption
(limited use ofearly designs)
Diffusion(improvement & widespread use)
Innovation (new or better
product)
LearningBy Doing
LearningBy Using
R&D
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Accelerating Innovation RequiresAccelerating Innovation Requires
• Closer coupling and interaction between R&D performers and technology developers /users
• Better methods to identify promising options, evaluate new processes /concepts, and reduce number and size of pilot and demonstration projects (e.g., via improved simulation methods)
• New models for organizing the research enterprise
• Substantial and sustained support for R&D
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
The Critical Role of PolicyThe Critical Role of Policy
• The pace and direction of innovations in carbon capture will be strongly influenced by climate policy—which is critical for establishing markets for CCS technologies
19
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
ConclusionsConclusions
• Significant potential to reduce the cost of carbon capture via: New or improved CO2 capture technologies Improved plant efficiency and utilization
• But must also build and operate some full-size plants with current technology….
• And enact policies that create and foster markets for CCS technologies
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Thank YouThank You
[email protected]@cmu.edu