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1 The Status of CO The Status of CO 2 2 Capture Capture and Storage Technology and Storage Technology Edward S. Rubin Department of Engineering and Public Policy Department of Mechanical Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Presentation to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado July 12, 2010 E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Outline of Talk Outline of Talk Why the interest in CCS? Status of current CCS technology Current cost estimates Potential for cost reductions Why the interest in CCS ? Why the interest in CCS ? (Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration) (Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration) E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Motivation for CCS Motivation for CCS Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations will require large reductions in CO 2 emissions. But … Fossil fuels will continue to be used for many decades —alternatives not able to substitute quickly CCS is the ONLY way to get large CO 2 reductions from fossil fuel use—a potential bridging strategy CCS can also help decarbonize the transportation sector via low-carbon electricity and hydrogen from fossil fuels Energy models show that without CCS, the cost of mitigating climate change will be much higher
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Page 1: The Status of CO2 Capture and Storage Technology - July 12 ... · PDF fileCost-Effective Global Strategies ... (Source: ABB Lummus) E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon ... Snohvit LNG Project

1

The Status of COThe Status of CO22 CaptureCaptureand Storage Technologyand Storage Technology

Edward S. RubinDepartment of Engineering and Public Policy

Department of Mechanical EngineeringCarnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Presentation to theNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Golden, Colorado

July 12, 2010E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Outline of TalkOutline of Talk

• Why the interest in CCS?• Status of current CCS technology

• Current cost estimates• Potential for cost reductions

Why the interest in CCS ?Why the interest in CCS ?(Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration)(Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Motivation for CCSMotivation for CCS

• Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations will require large reductions in CO2 emissions. But …

• Fossil fuels will continue to be used for many decades —alternatives not able to substitute quickly

• CCS is the ONLY way to get large CO2 reductions from fossil fuel use—a potential bridging strategy

• CCS can also help decarbonize the transportation sector via low-carbon electricity and hydrogen from fossil fuels

• Energy models show that without CCS, the cost of mitigating climate change will be much higher

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

CostCost--Effective Global Strategies Effective Global Strategies Require CCS in the PortfolioRequire CCS in the Portfolio

Source: IPCC, 2007

Models show increasing need for CCS as stabilization goal tightens

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Trill

ions

of 1

990

US

$ D

isco

unte

d to

200

5

450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm

Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Trill

ions

of 1

990

US

$ D

isco

unte

d to

200

5

450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm

Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available

Source: J. Edmonds, PNNL, 2008

Without CCS the cost of stabilization increases sharply

Status of CCS technology Status of CCS technology

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Schematic of a CCS SystemSchematic of a CCS System

Power Plantor Industrial

Process

Air orOxygen

CarbonaceousFuels

UsefulProducts

(Electricity, Fuels,Chemicals, Hydrogen)

CO2

CO2Capture &Compress

CO2Transport

CO2 Storage (Sequestration)

- Post-combustion- Pre-combustion- Oxyfuel combustion

- Pipeline- Tanker

- Depleted oil/gas fields- Deep saline formations- Unmineable coal seams- Ocean- Mineralization- Reuse

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Many Ways to Capture COMany Ways to Capture CO22

MEACausticOther

Chemical

SelexolRectisolOther

Physical

Absorption

AluminaZeoliteActivated C

Adsorber Beds

Pressure SwingTemperature SwingWashing

Regeneration Method

Adsorption Cryogenics

PolyphenyleneoxidePolydimethylsiloxane

Gas Separation

Polypropelene

Gas Absorption

Ceramic BasedSystems

Membranes Microbial/AlgalSystems

CO2 Separation and Capture

Choice of technology depends strongly on application

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Leading Candidates for CCSLeading Candidates for CCS

• Fossil fuel power plants Pulverized coal combustion (PC) Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) Integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC)

• Other large industrial sources of CO2 such as: Refineries, fuel processing, and petrochemical plants Hydrogen and ammonia production plants Pulp and paper plants Cement plants

– Main focus is on power plants, the dominant source of CO2 –

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: PrePre--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture

Electricity

ShiftReactor

SulfurRemoval

CombinedCycle Power

Plant

O2

Air

CO2

H2Quench System

H2

H2O Air

SulfurRecovery

GasifierCoal

H2O

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 Capture

Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2

SeparationCO2

CompressionCO2

Stac

k

Flue gasto atmosphereElectricityElectricity

ShiftReactor

SulfurRemoval

CombinedCycle Power

Plant

O2

Air

CO2

H2Quench System

H2

H2O Air

SulfurRecovery

GasifierCoal

H2O

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 Capture

Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2

SeparationCO2

CompressionCO2

ShiftReactor

SulfurRemoval

CombinedCycle Power

Plant

O2

Air

CO2

H2Quench System

H2

H2O Air

SulfurRecovery

GasifierCoal

H2O

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 Capture

Selexol/CO2SelexolCO2 tostorageSelexol/CO2

SeparationCO2

CompressionCO2

Stac

k

Flue gasto atmosphere

Stac

kSt

ack

Flue gasto atmosphere

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: PostPost--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture

Coal

Air

Steam

Steam Turbine

Generator

Electricity

Air PollutionControl Systems (NOx, PM, SO2)

CO2 Capture PC Boiler MostlyN2 S

tack

Flue gasto atmosphere

Amine/CO2AmineCO2 tostorageAmine/CO2

SeparationCO2

Compression

CO2

Coal

Air

Steam

Steam Turbine

Generator

Electricity

Air PollutionControl Systems (NOx, PM, SO2)

CO2 Capture PC Boiler MostlyN2 S

tack

Flue gasto atmosphere

Amine/CO2AmineCO2 tostorageAmine/CO2

SeparationCO2

Compression

CO2

Also for NGCC plants

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

COCO22 Capture Options for Power Plants: Capture Options for Power Plants: OxyOxy--Combustion CaptureCombustion Capture

Coal

Steam

Steam Turbine

Generator

Electricity

Air PollutionControl Systems ( NOx, PM, SO2)

Distillation System

PC Boiler

CO2 tostorageCO2

Compression

CO2

Air

O2

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 to recycle

Sta

ck

To atmosphere

H2OCO2

Water

Coal

Steam

Steam Turbine

Generator

Electricity

Air PollutionControl Systems ( NOx, PM, SO2)

Distillation System

PC Boiler

CO2 tostorageCO2

Compression

CO2CO2 tostorageCO2

Compression

CO2

AirAir

O2

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 to recycleO2

Air Separation

Unit

CO2 to recycle

Sta

ck

To atmosphere

Sta

ck

To atmosphere

H2OCO2

H2OCO2

Water

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Geological Storage Options

Source: IPCC, 2005E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Status of CCS Technology Status of CCS Technology

• Pre- and post-combustion CO2 capture technologies are commercial and widely used in industrial processes; also at several gas-fired and coal-fired power plants, at small scale (~40 MW); CO2 capture efficiencies are typically 85-90%. Oxyfuel capture is still under development.

• CO2 transport via pipelines is a mature technology.

• Geological storage of CO2 is commercial on a limited basis, mainly for EOR; several projects in deep saline formations are operating at scales of ~1 Mt CO2 /yr.

• Large-scale integration of CO2 capture, transport and geological sequestration has been demonstrated at several industrial sites (outside the U.S.) — but not yet at an electric power plant at full-scale.

Coal Gasification to Produce SNG(Beulah, North Dakota, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Dak

ota

Gas

ifica

tion

Petcoke Gasification to Produce H2(Coffeyville, Kansas, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Che

vron

-Tex

aco)

Examples of Pre-CombustionCO2 Capture Systems

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: Elcano, 2007

Puertollano IGCC Plant (Spain)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Source: Nuon, 2009

Buggenhum IGCC Plant

(The Netherlands)

Pre-Combustion Capture at IGCC Plants

Pilot plants under construction at two IGCC plants (startup expected in late 2010)

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Post-Combustion Technology for Industrial CO2 Capture

BP Natural Gas Processing Plant(In Salah, Algeria)

Source: IEA GHG, 2008

Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at a Gas-Fired Power Plant

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

(Sou

rce:

Flo

ur D

anie

l)

Bellingham Cogeneration Plant(Bellingham, Massachusetts, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Sue

z Ene

rgy

Gen

erat

ion)

)

Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at Coal-Fired Power Plants

Warrior Run Power Plant(Cumberland, Maryland, USA)

(Sou

rce:

(IEA

GH

G)

Shady Point Power Plant(Panama, Oklahoma, USA)

(Sou

rce:

ABB

Lum

mus

)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: Vattenfall, 2008

Oxy-Combustion CO2 Capture from a Coal-Fired Boiler

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

30 MWt Pilot Plant (~10 MWe) at Vattenfall Schwarze Pumpe Station

(Germany)

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: NRDCSource: USDOE/Battelle

> 3000 miles of pipeline~40 MtCO2/yr transported

CO2 Pipelines in the Western U.S.

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

LargeLarge--Scale CCS ProjectsScale CCS Projects

0.72008SalineFormationStatoilHydroSnohvit

(Norway)

1.22004Depleted Gas Field

Sonatrach, BP, StatoilHydro

In Salah(Algeria)

1.2*2000Oil Field(EOR)EnCanaWeyburn

(Canada)

1.0 1996SalineFormationStatoilHydroSleipner

(Norway)

Injection Rate

(MtCO2/yr )Injection

Start DateGeological ReservoirOperatorProject

* Average rate over 15 year contract. Recent expansion to ~3 Mt/yr for Weyburn + Midale field..

Sleipner Project (Norway)

Source: Statoil

Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Deep Saline Formation

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Snohvit LNG Project (Norway)

Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Deep Saline Formation

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: www.Snohvit, 2009

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: BP

Geological Storage of Captured CO2 in a Depleted Gas Formation

G a s

W a t e r

4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n

W e l l s

3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n

W e l l s

P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s

R e m o v a l

T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a

G a s

W a t e r

4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n

W e l l s

3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n

W e l l s

P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s

R e m o v a l

T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a

G a s

W a t e r

4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n

W e l l s

3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n

W e l l s

P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s

R e m o v a l

G a s

W a t e r

4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n

W e l l s

3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n

W e l l s

P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s

R e m o v a l

G a s

W a t e r

4 G a s P r o d u c t i o n

W e l l s

3 C O 2I n j e c t i o n

W e l l s

P r o c e s s i n g F a c i l i t i e s

R e m o v a l

T h e C O 2 S t o r a g e S c h e m e a t K r e c h b a

Krechba

Teg

Reg

Garet elBefinat Hassi MoumeneIn Salah

Gour Mahmoud

Proposed ISG PipelineREB

Hassi BirRekaiz

Hassi Messaoud

Hassi R’Mel

Tiguentourine (BP)

02151093

Algiers

Tangiers

Lisbon

Cordoba

Cartagena

M O R O C C O

A L G E R I A

S P A I N

L I B Y A

MAURITANIA M A L I

SkikdaTunis

N I G E R

In Salah Project

Krechba

Teg

Reg

Garet elBefinat Hassi MoumeneIn Salah

Gour Mahmoud

Proposed ISG PipelineREB

Hassi BirRekaiz

Hassi Messaoud

Hassi R’Mel

Tiguentourine (BP)

02151093

Algiers

Tangiers

Lisbon

Cordoba

Cartagena

M O R O C C O

A L G E R I A

S P A I N

L I B Y A

MAURITANIA M A L I

SkikdaTunis

N I G E R

In Salah Project

In Salah /Krechba (Algeria)

Geological Formations in North America

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Deep Saline FormationsOil & Gas Fields

Source: NETL, 2009

Dakota Coal Gasification Plant, NDRegina

Bismarck

North Dakota

Saskatchewan CanadaUSA

WeyburnWeyburn

COCO22

Regina

Bismarck

North Dakota

Saskatchewan CanadaUSA

WeyburnWeyburn

COCO22Sources: IEAGHG; NRDC; USDOE

Weyburn Field, Canada

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Geological Storage of Captured CO2 with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

CCS at a Coal-Fired Power Plant with Storage in a Deep Saline Formation

(Pilot plant scale)

Source: AEP, 2009

20 MW capture unit at AEP’s Mountaineer

Power Plant(West Virginia)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Still MissingStill Missing• Full-scale power plant demo #1• Full-scale power plant demo #2• Full-scale power plant demo #3• Full-scale power plant demo #4• Full-scale power plant demo #5• Full-scale power plant demo #6• Full-scale power plant demo #7• Full-scale power plant demo #8• Full-scale power plant demo #9• Full-scale power plant demo #10

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

FullFull--Scale Demonstration Projects Scale Demonstration Projects Are Urgently Needed to . . . Are Urgently Needed to . . .

• Establish the reliability, safety and true cost of CCS in full-scale power plant applications

• Help resolve legal and regulatory issues regarding geological sequestration

• Help address issues of public acceptance• Begin reducing future costs via learning-by-doing

Financing large-scale projects has been a major hurdle

- Cost per project ≈ $1 billion (install/operate CCS, 400 MW, 5 yrs)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Many projects are planned or underway at various scales

• Map shows operating plus proposed or planned projects in the U.S. and Canada. They encompass power plants, industrial sources and research projects spanning a large range of scale.

Source: DOE, 2009E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Substantial CCS Activity Globally

Source: DOE, 2009

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

One Example:One Example:IGCC Demonstration in ChinaIGCC Demonstration in China

Partners include: China Datang Corp., China State Development and Investment Corp., China GuodianCorp., China Huadian Corp., China Power Investment Corp., China National Coal Group and ShenhuaGroup, Peabody Energy

The The GreenGenGreenGen ProjectProject(Tianjin, China)(Tianjin, China)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Roadmaps for CCS DeploymentRoadmaps for CCS Deployment

Commercialization expected by 2020

EPRI Roadmap

DOE Roadmap

20102008 20162012 2020 2024

Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D

Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos

CCS Commercialization

Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing

Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation

Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment

20102008 20162012 2020 2024

Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D

Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos

CCS Commercialization

Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing

Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation

Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment

Capture Technology Laboratory-Bench-Pilot Scale R&D

Capture Technology Full-Scale Demos

CCS Commercialization

Capture Technology Large-Scale Field Testing

Carbon Sequestration Phase II -- Validation

Carbon Sequestration Phase III -- Deployment

The cost of CCSThe cost of CCS

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Many Factors Affect CCS CostsMany Factors Affect CCS Costs• Choice of Power Plant and CCS Technology• Process Design and Operating Variables• Economic and Financial Parameters• Choice of System Boundaries; e.g.,

One facility vs. multi-plant system (regional, national, global) GHG gases considered (CO2 only vs. all GHGs) Power plant only vs. partial or complete life cycle

• Time Frame of Interest First-of-a-kind plant vs. nth plant Current technology vs. future systems Consideration of technological “learning”

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Common Measures of CostCommon Measures of Cost

($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)reference

(CO2/MWh)ref – (CO2/MWh)ccs

• Cost of CO2 Avoided ($/ton CO2 avoided)

=

• Cost of Electricity (COE) ($/MWh)(TCC)(FCF) + FOM

(CF)(8760)(MW) + VOM + (HR)(FC)=

Also: - Cost of CO2 Captured ($/ton CO2 captured)- Cost of CO2 Reduced/Abated ($/ton CO2 abated)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Ten Ways to Reduce Estimated Cost Ten Ways to Reduce Estimated Cost (inspired by D. Letterman)(inspired by D. Letterman)

10. Assume high power plant efficiency 9. Assume high-quality fuel properties8. Assume low fuel cost7. Assume EOR credits for CO2 storage6. Omit certain capital costs5. Report $/ton CO2 based on short tons4. Assume long plant lifetime3. Assume low interest rate (discount rate)2. Assume high plant utilization (capacity factor)1. Assume all of the above !

. . . and we have not yet considered the CCS technology!

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Sources of Recent Cost EstimatesSources of Recent Cost Estimates

• IPCC, 2005: Special Report on CCS

• Rubin, et.al, 2007: Energy Policy paper

• EPRI, 2007: Report No. 1014223

• DOE, 2007: Report DOE/NETL-2007/1281

• EPRI, 2008: Report No. 1018329

• DOE, 2009: Pgh Coal Conference Presentation

• DOE, 2010: Low-Rank Coal Study (forthcoming)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Estimated Cost of New Power Plants Estimated Cost of New Power Plants with and without CCSwith and without CCS

SCPC

IGCC

New Coal

Plants

20

40

60

80

100

120

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($ /

MW

h)

00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

CO2 Emission Rate (tonnes / MWh)

* 2007 costs for bituminous coals; gas price ≈ $4–7/GJ; 90% capture; aquifer storage

Current Coal

Plants

PC

NGCC

Natural Gas

Plants PlantswithCCS

SCPC

IGCC

NG

CC

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

DOE vs. DOE vs. EPRIEPRI

• EPRI’s capital costs ($/kW) are higher that DOE’s

• EPRI’s levelized costs of electricity ($/MWh) are lower than DOE’s

Source: EPRI, 2007

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Incremental Cost of CCS for New Incremental Cost of CCS for New Power Plants Using Current TechnologyPower Plants Using Current Technology

~ 30–50%~ 60–80%Increases in capital cost ($/kW) and generation cost ($/kWh)

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Plant

Supercritical Pulverized Coal Plant

Incremental Cost of CCS relative relative to same plant typeto same plant type without CCS

based on bituminous coals

The added cost to consumers due to CCS will be much smaller, reflecting the number and type of CCS plants in the generation mix at any given time.

Increase in levelized cost for 90% capture

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Typical Cost of COTypical Cost of CO22 AvoidedAvoided(Relative to a (Relative to a SCPC reference plantSCPC reference plant; bituminous coals); bituminous coals)

Cost reduced by ~ $20–30 /tCO2Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage

~ $50 /tCO2±$10/t

~ $70 /tCO2±$15/t

Deep aquifer storage

New Integrated Gasification

Combined Cycle Plant

New Supercritical Pulverized Coal

Plant

Power Plant System (relative to a SCPC relative to a SCPC plant without CCS)plant without CCS)

• Capture accounts for most (~80%) of the total cost

Levelized cost in US$ per tonne COLevelized cost in US$ per tonne CO22 avoidedavoided

Source: Based on IPCC, 2005; Rubin et al, 2007; DOE, 2007

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

DOE Cost Results for LowDOE Cost Results for Low--Rank Rank Coals at Western Power PlantsCoals at Western Power Plants

Sour

ce: N

ETL,

200

9

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

High capture energy requirements High capture energy requirements is a major factor in high CCS costs is a major factor in high CCS costs

~15%New natural gas (NGCC)

15-20%New coal gasification (IGCC)

25-30%New supercritical PC

~40%Existing subcritical PC

Added fuel input (%) per net kWh outputPower Plant Type

Changes in plant efficiency due to CCS energy requirements also affect plant-level pollutant emission rates (per MWh). A site-specific context is needed to evaluate the net impacts.

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Breakdown of Breakdown of ““Energy PenaltyEnergy Penalty””for COfor CO22 Capture (SCPC and IGCC)Capture (SCPC and IGCC)

~10%Pumps, Fans, etc.

~30%CO2 Compression

~60%Thermal Energy

Approx. % of Total Reqm’tComponent

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Analyzing Options for Power PlantsAnalyzing Options for Power Plants(IECM: The (IECM: The IIntegrated ntegrated EEnvironmental nvironmental CControl ontrol MModel)odel)

• A desktop/laptop computer model developed for DOE/NETL; free and publicly available at: www.iecm-online.com

• Provides systematic estimates of performance, emissions, costs and uncertainties for preliminary design of:

PC, IGCC and NGCC plants All flue/fuel gas treatment systems CO2 capture and storage options

(pre- and post-combustion, oxy-combustion; transport, storage)

Major updates in late 2009 & 2010

The cost of COThe cost of CO22

transport and storagetransport and storage

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Pipeline Cost Model Pipeline Cost Model

• Multi-variate regression models based on data from 236 on-shore natural gas pipelines constructed in the U.S. from 1994 to 2003 Capital cost model is linear in pipe diameter,

logarithmic in pipe length; reported in $2004.

• Separate models for 6 regions

• Cost breakdowns for: Materials Labor Eng’g, Overheads, AFUDC Right-of-way

Modeling CO2 Transport by PipelineE.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Levelized Cost of Transport: Levelized Cost of Transport: Deterministic ResultsDeterministic Results

$2.20

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Levelized Cost of Transport:Levelized Cost of Transport:Probabilistic ResultsProbabilistic Results

Design CO2 Flow Rate 5 Mt/yLength 100 km (60 mi)

Modeling CO2 Transport by PipelineE.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Saline Formation Storage ModelSaline Formation Storage Model

Performance Inputs

Cost ModelInputs

Results

Results

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14

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Illustrative Case StudiesIllustrative Case Studies

• Data from 4 sites, with kh values from 4,500 to 940,000 md·ft

• Capital recovery factor =15% for all cases

2394450744Permeability, k (md)1,5141,8501,5002,499Depth (m)

300

Sandstone

Frio FormationTexas

South Liberty

593091Net Sand, h (m)

SandstoneSandstoneSandstoneLithology

Mannville Aquifer

Viking AquiferPurdy Springer A

ReservoirAlbertaAlbertaOklahomaLocation

Lake Wabamun Area

Joffre-Viking Pool

Northeast Purdy Unit

Parameter

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Levelized Cost of COLevelized Cost of CO22 StorageStorage

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Levelized Cost of COLevelized Cost of CO22 Storage:Storage:Probabilistic ResultsProbabilistic Results

• Lake Wabamun Area Case Study

• Probability distributions assigned to:- 8 performance model parameters- 9 cost model parameters

• Bounds for performance parameter distributions based on reported field data (Alberta Geological Survey, 2006)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Capital Cost BreakdownCapital Cost Breakdown

Thin, high-permeability aquifer—requires large characterization area

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15

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Full details in technical reports & papersFull details in technical reports & papers(available from IECM website)(available from IECM website)

What is the potential for lowerWhat is the potential for lower--cost capture technology? cost capture technology?

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

59 OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY

Better Capture Technologies Are Emerging

Time to Commercialization

Advanced physical solventsAdvanced chemical solventsAmmoniaCO2 com-pression

Amine solventsPhysical solventsCryogenic oxygen

Chemical loopingOTM boilerBiological processesCAR process

Ionic liquidsMetal organic frameworksEnzymatic membranes

Present

Cos

t Red

uctio

n B

enef

it

5+ years 10+ years 15+ years 20+ years

PBI membranes Solid sorbentsMembrane systemsITMsBiomass co-firing

Post-combustion (existing, new PC)

Pre-combustion (IGCC)

Oxycombustion (new PC)

CO2 compression (all)

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Potential Cost SavingsPotential Cost Savings

• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis

A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvement in key parameters

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16

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis

Source: DOE/NETL, 2006

19% -28% reductions in COE w/ CCS

3128

19

12 10

5 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

A B C D E F G

7.13(c/kWh)

7.01(c/kWh)

6.14(c/kWh) 6.03

(c/kWh)

5.75(c/kWh)

5.75(c/kWh)

6.52(c/kWh)

SelexolSelexolAdvanced

SelexolAdvanced

Selexol

AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/ITM

& co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/ITM

& co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-

Sequestration

WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-

Sequestration

Chemical Looping& Co-

Sequestration

Chemical Looping& Co-

Sequestration

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE

IGCCIGCC70 69

5550 52

45

22

01020304050607080

A B C D E F G

`

8.77(c/kWh)

8.72(c/kWh)

8.00(c/kWh)

7.74(c/kWh)

7.48(c/kWh)

7.84(c/kWh)

y

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE

SC w/AmineScrubbingSC w/AmineScrubbing

SC w/EconamineScrubbingSC w/EconamineScrubbing

SC w/AmmoniaCO2 ScrubbingSC w/AmmoniaCO2 Scrubbing

SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)

SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)

USC w/AmineScrubbingUSC w/AmineScrubbing USC w/Advanced

Amine ScrubbingUSC w/AdvancedAmine Scrubbing

6.30 (c/kWh)

RTI RegenerableSorbentRTI RegenerableSorbent

PCPC

50

3326

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A B C D

`

6.97(c/kWh)

6.62(c/kWh)

6.35(c/kWh)

y y

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE Advanced

Subcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSubcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)Advanced

Supercritical Oxyfuel(ITM O2)

Advanced Supercritical

Oxyfuel(ITM O2)

7.86(c/kWh)

Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)

Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU) OxyfuelOxyfuel

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Source: DOE/ NETL, 2010

Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis

-5

15

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

IGCC Today

IGCC w/ CCS Today

IGCC w/ CCS with R&D

Supercritical PC Today

Supercritical PC w/ CCS …

Adv Combustion w/ CCS …

$/M

Wh

($20

09)

CCSwith

NoR&D

NoCCS

CCSwith R&D

CCSwith

NoR&D

NoCCS

CCSwith R&D

Pulverized Coal TechnologiesIGCC Technologies

27% reduction31% reduction

7% below no CCS

29% above no CCS

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Future Technology CostsFuture Technology Costs

• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis

A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvements in key process parameters

• Method 2: Use of Historical Experience Curves

A “top down” approach based on applications of mathematical “learning curves” or “experience curves” that reflect historical trends for analogous technologies or systems

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Empirical Empirical ““Learning CurvesLearning Curves””

• Cost trends modeled as a log-linear relationship between unit cost and cumulative production or capacity: y = ax –b

• Case studies used for power plant components: Flue gas desulfurization systems (FGD) Selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR) Gas turbine combined cycle system (GTCC) Pulverized coal-fired boilers (PC) Liquefied natural gas plants (LNG) Oxygen production plants (ASU) Hydrogen production plants (SMR)

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)

RD&D Commercialization

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

Source: IIASA, 1996

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)

RD&D Commercialization

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)

RD&D Commercialization

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

Source: IIASA, 1996

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Experience Curves for Case Study TechnologiesExperience Curves for Case Study Technologies

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on Learning Curve AnalysisLearning Curve Analysis **(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Perc

ent R

educ

tion

in C

OE

NGCC PC IGCC Oxyfuel

% REDUCTION• Upper bound of

projected cost reduction are similar to estimates from DOE’s “bottom-up”analyses

* Plant-level learning curves developed from component-level analyses for each system

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Most New Capture Concepts Are Most New Capture Concepts Are Far from Commercial Availability Far from Commercial Availability

Source: NASA, 2009

Technology Readiness Levels

Source: EPRI, 2009

Post-Combustion Capture

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Most new concepts take decades to Most new concepts take decades to commercializecommercialize……many never make itmany never make it

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1999: 10 MW pilot planned by DOE

1975: DOE conducts test of fluidized bed system

1961:Process described by Bureau of Mines

1973: Used in commercial refinery in Japan

1970: Results of testing published.

1971: Test conducted in Netherlands

1967: Pilot-Scale Testing begins.

1979: Pilot-scale testing conducted in Florida

1984: Continued pilot testing with 500 lb/hr feed

1992: DOE contracts design and modeling for 500MW plant

1996: DOE continues lifecycle testing

2002: Paper published at NETL symposium

2006: Most recent paper published

1983: Rockwell contracted to improve system

Copper Oxide Process

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1999: Process used at plant in Poland

1985: Pilots initiated in U.S. and Germany

1977: Ebara begins pilot-scale testing

1998: Process used in plant in Chengdu, China

1970: Ebara Corporation begins lab scale testing.

2005: Process used in plant in Hangzhou, China

2008: Paper on process presented at WEC forum in Romania

2002: Process used in plant in Beijing, China

Electron Beam Process

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1991: NoxsoCorporation receives DOE contract

1982: Pilot-scale tests carried out in Kentucky

1985: DOE conducts lifecycle testing.

1979: Development of process begins

1998: NoxsoCorporation liquidated. Project terminated.

1996: Construction of full scale test begins

2000: Noxsoprocess cited in ACS paper, Last NOXSO patent awarded

1997: NoxsoCorporation declares bankruptcy

1993: Pilot-scale testing complete

NOXSO Process

Development timelines for three novel processes for

combined SO2 –NOx capture

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E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

The Linear Model of Technological Change

Challenge 1:Challenge 1:Accelerate the Pace of InnovationAccelerate the Pace of Innovation

Invention Adoption DiffusionInnovation

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

A More Realistic ModelA More Realistic Model

InventionAdoption

(limited use ofearly designs)

Diffusion(improvement & widespread use)

Innovation (new or better

product)

LearningBy Doing

LearningBy Using

R&D

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Accelerating Innovation RequiresAccelerating Innovation Requires

• Closer coupling and interaction between R&D performers and technology developers /users

• Better methods to identify promising options, evaluate new processes /concepts, and reduce number and size of pilot and demonstration projects (e.g., via improved simulation methods)

• New models for organizing the research enterprise

• Substantial and sustained support for R&D

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

The Critical Role of PolicyThe Critical Role of Policy

• The pace and direction of innovations in carbon capture will be strongly influenced by climate policy—which is critical for establishing markets for CCS technologies

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19

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

ConclusionsConclusions

• Significant potential to reduce the cost of carbon capture via: New or improved CO2 capture technologies Improved plant efficiency and utilization

• But must also build and operate some full-size plants with current technology….

• And enact policies that create and foster markets for CCS technologies

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Thank YouThank You

[email protected]@cmu.edu


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