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The Sudans and the Niles

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The Sudans and the The Sudans and the Niles Niles Ana Elisa Cascao, SIWI Ana Elisa Cascao, SIWI Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013 Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
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Page 1: The Sudans and the Niles

The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the NilesAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI

Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013

Page 2: The Sudans and the Niles

Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles

Not upstream, not downstream

but midstream

Page 3: The Sudans and the Niles

The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles

Page 4: The Sudans and the Niles

Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics

North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise more Nile water resources

South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially) increase the Nile water resources

King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)

Page 5: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: North Sudan: the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card

• Current and future uses of the Nile waters

• Water consumption:

the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy

• Water diplomacy:

looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)

Page 6: The Sudans and the Niles
Page 7: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential

Page 8: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: North Sudan: the irrigation the irrigation

potentialpotential

Page 9: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential

Page 10: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: North Sudan: the livestock the livestock

potentialpotential

Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project

Page 11: The Sudans and the Niles

North Sudan: current and future North Sudan: current and future hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?

• Oil or agriculture/livestock

• Back to the breadbasket idea?• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions

• Is there water enough?

Page 12: The Sudans and the Niles

South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian

• 11th Nile riparian state• Part of the two Nile regions• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?• Hydropolitical positionality?

Page 13: The Sudans and the Niles

South Sudan: South Sudan: Resource-based Resource-based

developmentdevelopment

• The rise and fall of an oil economy

• Back to the basics…Agriculture and Livestock

• Trade-offs and social conflicts

• Increasing energy demands

Page 14: The Sudans and the Niles

South Sudan and the Nile in the South Sudan and the Nile in the post-independence periodpost-independence period

Alignment:

1959 Agreement or CFA?

• Foreign Policy• Negotiations• Water Allocations• Jonglei Canal

Page 15: The Sudans and the Niles

Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations

Hydropolitical implications of South Sudan’s secession?

Nile discussions in 2 folders:

• International Agreements and

• Natural Resources

Page 16: The Sudans and the Niles

Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile

Page 17: The Sudans and the Niles

South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?

• Political and econonic calculations

• Political and economic relations with Egypt and Sudan

• Political and economic relations with African neighbours (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and other EAC countries)

Page 18: The Sudans and the Niles

Jonglei Canal: Jonglei Canal: yes or not

(or maybe)?

Page 19: The Sudans and the Niles

Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?

Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war

Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...

Technical engineering or social-political engineering?

?

Jon

gle

i C

anal

Page 20: The Sudans and the Niles

Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?

AgricultureEnergy

Hydropolitics

Page 21: The Sudans and the Niles

New book

Resource-based conflict and cooperation in South Sudan

and Gambella (Ethiopia): When Water, Land and Oil

Mix With Politics

Page 22: The Sudans and the Niles

Thanks for your attention!

[email protected]


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