The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the NilesAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI
Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles
Not upstream, not downstream
The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics
North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise more Nile water resources
South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially) increase the Nile water resources
King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
North Sudan: North Sudan: the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card
• Current and future uses of the Nile waters
• Water consumption:
the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy
• Water diplomacy:
looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
North Sudan: North Sudan: the irrigation the irrigation
North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
North Sudan: North Sudan: the livestock the livestock
Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
North Sudan: current and future North Sudan: current and future hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?
• Oil or agriculture/livestock
• Back to the breadbasket idea?• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions
• Is there water enough?
South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian
• 11th Nile riparian state• Part of the two Nile regions• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?• Hydropolitical positionality?
South Sudan: South Sudan: Resource-based Resource-based
• The rise and fall of an oil economy
• Back to the basics…Agriculture and Livestock
• Trade-offs and social conflicts
• Increasing energy demands
South Sudan and the Nile in the South Sudan and the Nile in the post-independence periodpost-independence period
1959 Agreement or CFA?
• Foreign Policy• Negotiations• Water Allocations• Jonglei Canal
Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations
Hydropolitical implications of South Sudan’s secession?
Nile discussions in 2 folders:
• International Agreements and
• Natural Resources
Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?
• Political and econonic calculations
• Political and economic relations with Egypt and Sudan
• Political and economic relations with African neighbours (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and other EAC countries)
Jonglei Canal: Jonglei Canal: yes or not
Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?
Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war
Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...
Technical engineering or social-political engineering?
Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?
Resource-based conflict and cooperation in South Sudan
and Gambella (Ethiopia): When Water, Land and Oil
Mix With Politics