Governor Stefan Ingves

The Swedish Economy and

Monetary Policy

NBP Warsaw24 May 2012

Financial markets fragile

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5

6

7

8

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8

08 09 10 11 12

SpainItalyFranceGermanySweden

Weak growth in the euro area…

GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

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6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

The world

USA

Euro area

…which dampens Swedish exportsExport market and exports

Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Export

BNP

Improvement at the start of the year

Index, 2007 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden

75

85

95

105

115

75

85

95

105

115

07 08 09 10 11 12

Export of goods

Retail trade index

Some positive signs

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

07 08 09 10 11 12

The Economic TendencyIndicatorMean

+/- one standarddeviation

Index, mean value = 100, standard deviation = 10

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Labour market to deteriorate slightly over the coming year

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

Low inflation

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

CPIF

CPI

Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Repo rate to remain low

0

1

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4

5

0

1

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3

4

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

FebruaryApril

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

A forecast, not a promise

-2

-1

0

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6

7

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

90%75%50%UtfallPrognos

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank

Household´s debt

Note. The series refers to the Riksbank's own calculations using data from Statistics Sweden.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

50

100

150

200

50

100

150

200

85 90 95 00 05 10

Debt/disposable income

Sweden has a large banking sector that is dependent on other countries…Bank assets in relation to GDP

Note. Per cent. Data refer to December 2010. Sources: ECB, European Commission, Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Estonia

SlovakiaRomaniaBulgariaPolandLatvia

LithuaniaHungary

Czech RepublicFinland

SloveniaLuxembourg

BelgiumItaly

GreeceAveragePortugal

IrelandGermanyDenmark

AustriaFranceSpain

SwedenNetherlands

United KingdomSwitzerland

The major Swedishbanks' foreign operations

Swedish banks are de facto Nordic-Baltic

Swede

n

Norway

Denmark

Finlan

dEst

onia

Latvia

Lithuan

ia0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SwedbankSEBNordeaHandelsbanken

Norway:16 %

Denmark:15 %

Finland:39 %

Estonia: 81 %Latvia: 53 %

Lithuania: 62 %

Sweden:75 %

Market share of Swedish banks inNordic and Baltic countries, late 2009

Sources: Official and industry data, Riksbank estimates