The Technologists Dilemma

The Technologist’s DilemmaA Black and White World Clouded With Shades of Grey…

Copyright © Joseph C. Campbell

Technology Use To Be A Cost

• There was a day when “technology” was simply a cost.

• Businesses could take it or leave it as it made things better, but so what?

• If computers broke, cars could still be built, gas pumped at a gas station and the light switch would work.

• Then something happened; it was slow at first, but then almost over night it was here…


The Technology Is the Business

• Yes, today technology has quietly become the business.

• No longer is a Car Company just a “Car Company”, it is now a “Technology Company”

• If its systems do not work, they do not build the cars and therefore cannot sell cars, which in turn means they do not pay their employees.

• This holds true for all companies today, without technology they will not exist!


All Fields Are Brown

• With this, ask your self, why do all these internet startups sell for so much?

• The answer is: They are “Greenfields” in a sea of “brown”. If technology is the “business”, then the rate at which it changes is the “wave” the businesses ride.

• Yet most businesses live within “Brownfield's”, legacy environments their accountants force them to depreciate while others…


Eat Their Lunch

• In the business world of rock, paper, scissors - a “Greenfield” beats all. This is the reason they [startups] sell for so much.

• The Brownfield's need the vantage of the “Greenfields” to stay viable and keep from falling along the wayside as Moore’s Law passes them by.

• Greenfield change comes at an amazing rate, therefore what is a company to do?


Enter The Technologist’s

• Be it the CTO, Head of Enterprise Architecture, etc, the role is to see the future technologically.

• These folks are the “Technologist’s” and their role is to decide what the next “new-new thing” will be, to drive the next Greenfield.

• Yet many companies miss this as remember, “the business is technology” and if your competitor’s do it just a little faster and cheaper, then you are history and mistakes here are not forgiven.


The Technologist’s Dilemma

• This is where the Technologist's Dilemma comes in as how are they suppose to know the next “new-new thing”?

• The world is crowded with purveyors of a better mouse trap, however what if you don’t have mice?

• Here it is easy to get lost in the preverbal “technological forest” for all the trees block the view, as many of the obvious paths in fact lead to dead ends.


The World Is Sigmodal…

• The main reason for these “missteps” is the world is not flat, but sigmodal. You know, an “S” shape if you will.


Sigmodal Path

Direct Path

•You start at point “A” and travel the “S” route to point “B”, yet it is the long way around and the corners are blind.•Yet, if you drew a straight line between points “A” and “B”, it would be far shorter to reach the goal (a conclusion in this case) without “blinders”.

“A”

“B”

Blinded By The Path

• If the Technologist looks down the sigmodal path, the only thing they will see is the first curve.

• In short, they will be blinded by the path and with this will not see the true goal. This will then lead to the potential to confuse “evolution” [found at the first curve] for “revolution” as the end is out of sight.

• Ultimately, and unknowingly perpetuating the Brownfield thinking and leading to missed opportunities.


Introducing Zeno

• You might remember Zeno of Elea, you know the famous Greek philosopher known for paradoxical perspectives?

• The one in particular I think of a lot in this case is his Dichotomy Paradox.– Whereby if you want to cross the room, you must

make it half way and before you do that you must make it a quarter way and on, and on, and on…

– So how is it that you can cross from one side of the room to the other at all if you have to take an infinite number of steps?


Zeno’s Translation

• In short, Zeno says “we can never cross the room”, however we all know we can in fact cross to the other side; so what's up with that?

• Well, the crux of this is what drives the Technologist Dilemma as if the Technologist looks at “step change”, they will be lost in a series of infinite reiteration of the same (i.e. evolution).

• The Technologist, however to over come this, must instead “leap” from Revolution to Revolution to attain the Greenfield.


Shades of Gray


Revolution

[Gre

en F

ield

]

Evolution[Brown Field]

Infinite Number of Steps

(Shades of Gray)

Revolution

[Gre

en F

ield

]

•Here we see why many Technologists (and businesses) become lost in the “forest” as there are an infinite number of (potential) steps, which only provide for incremental [business] value.

•Following this path will lead only to a Brownfield as the investment made (for evolution) does not return the value as does a “revolutionary” one. In addition, this also adds to masking what truly is “revolutionary” causing missed opportunity for early adoption.

•We then end up lost in an infinite sea of shades of gray as we try to rationalize the future.

Back & White Results…


Revolution

[Gre

en F

ield

]

Evolution[Brown Field]

Infinite Number of Steps

(Shades of Gray)

Revolution

[Gre

en F

ield

]

•The solution to the paradox is full acceptance along with “full” rejection. In other words, the shades of gray need to be disregarded for absolutes driving towards “black and white” options.

•A strong example is Open Systems verses Mainframes.

•The later still exist today and in fact also evolve, yet when was the last revolution in this space?

•Open Systems, however have had many “revolutions”. So ask yourself what the impact would have been if you missed this?

Absolut

e Pat

h->

The Future?

• Today we see the time between “revolutions” decreasing steadily, and as this happens the required speed of acceptance and rejection must increase proportionally. Otherwise we run the risk of missing the “revolutionary” for simple “evolution”.

• Therefore, it is even more important than ever that future views of “absolute” [revolutions] be made as the “window” for the successful acceptance of this “revolution” are shortening in direct proportion to their occurrence.


Date post:	05-Jul-2015
Category:	Education
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The Technologists Dilemma

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