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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
3-4 July 2007 missed heavy precipitation eventin the Western Swiss Alps(Or the art of forecasting precipitations in a mountainous region)
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
The terrain
Geneva
Zurich
Locarno
Bern
Lausanne
Basel
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
Heavy precipitation critical thresholds in Switzerland
50mm/24h
100mm/24h
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
• Unseasonably strong westerly flow across the Alps.• Passage of an active frontal system in this rapid flow• Unusually active warm front and warm sector• cold front starting to wave against the Alps• Mainly large scale precipitations certainly with a convective
component (but no thunderstorms)
What happened?
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
MeteoSwiss Surface analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
UK Met Office Surface analysis – 4 July 2007 00UTC
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
MeteoSwiss 500 hPa analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
Western Switzerland
WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 3 July – 18UTC
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 4 July – 00UTC
Western Switzerland
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
ECMWF 01.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
ECMWF 01.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
ECMWF 02.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
ECMWF 02.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
Region receiving more than 50mm/12h
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
Hourly Precipitation rate in Aigle, le Bouveret and le Moléson
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
Consequences
• Floods• Landslides• Mudslides• Power outage• Fortunately no injuries or deaths!
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
A new tool – MAP D-PHASE
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill
… and what about forecasting stratus cloud in mountainous regions?