William G. Rhodes IIISenior Manager, Sandia National
LaboratoriesAlbuquerque, NM
The Terrorist’s Choice:Nuclear, Biological, or
CyberWeapons
Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National
Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
William Ury, “The walk from "no" to "yes," Ted.com, 11/30/2010
TERRORISM“Taking an innocent stranger and treating him as an enemy who you hurt or kill in order to create fear.”
FBI: 100% Chance of WMD Attack
Vahid Majidi, FBI Assistant Director, FBI WMD Directorate, 2/14/2011
3IDEASIDEAS
123
Risk MatrixRisk Matrix
Black Swan EventsBlack Swan Events
Ideas of Terrorist Success
Ideas of Terrorist Success
Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation
Materials & ToolsMaterials & Tools
ManagementManagement
Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills
Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution
OPSECOPSEC
EconomicEconomic
Health EffectsHealth Effects
Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects
InfrastructureInfrastructure
Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation
ManagementManagementMaterials & ToolsMaterials & Tools
Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills
Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution
OPSECOPSEC
EconomicEconomic
Health EffectsHealth Effects
Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects
InfrastructureInfrastructure
Ideas of Terrorist Success
Operation Hemorrhage
New York Post, “Cargo-jet plot was a cheap thrill” POST WIRE SERVICES, Nov. 21, 2010
Range of Possibilities
Terrorists are Failure Adverse
Black Swan Events
Black Swan Events
UnpredictableUnpredictable
Retrospective ExplainabilityRetrospective Explainability
Large Consequences
Large Consequences
Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons
Materials + Knowledge
PuPu9494
Plutonium(239)Plutonium(239)
TIME Magazine cover, “Merchant of Menace”, Feb. 14, 2005
Urs Tinner, World Radio Switzerland
Marco Tinner, Associated Press
Changes Since 9/11
•USG Position on Terrorist Capability
•KSM Warning
•USG Nuclear Security Programs
Nuclear WeaponsFinal thoughts on
Biological Weapons
Siege of CaffaSiege of Caffa
Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe
Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe
NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare
NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare
Terrorist Use of Biological Agents
The Dalles, Oregon
TIME Magazine cover, “Cult of Doom”, Apr. 3, 1995
Materials + Knowledge
Bacteria
Toxins
Rickettsia
Viruses
•2009 Rumors of Plots
•USG Bio-security Initiatives
•Other Activities
Changes Since 9/11
Bio WeaponsFinal thoughts on
Cyber Weapons
We rely on ourcyber infrastructure
for so much!
We rely on ourcyber infrastructure
for so much!
Why are Cyber Threats Different?
Why are Cyber Threats Different?
•Viruses
•Spyware
•Spam
•Phishing
•Trojan Horse
StuxnetStuxnet
•National Cyber Security Division, US CERT DHS
•Cyber Command, DoD
•US Cyber Security Coordinator
Changes Since 9/11
Cyber AttacksFinal thoughts on
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize Winning Physicist
3CHOICESCHOICES
Rank Weapon Type Average Rank
1 Chemical Weapon 1.3
2 Radiological Weapon 2
3 Biological Weapon 2.7
4 Nuclear Weapon 4
Delphi Survey
Source: Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Eds. Ackerman and Tamsett, CRC Press, 2009, pp. 379-395
Delphi Survey Results
Final Thoughts
“Thank You”
