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Monday, 19 April 2010
“We will provide an emergency Budget within 50 days of taking office.”
p.7, Conservative Party manifesto
JUNE24 George Osborne wants to hold a budget on 24th June
Monday, 19 April 2010
But he won’t tell the British public what will be in it.
What is the real price of his economic plan? political tacticspolitical tactics
Monday, 19 April 2010
The Tories’ June Budget
Chapter 1: 2010 – £6bn out of the economy in 2010– Recovery at risk– Teachers and police cut– Families on modest incomes lose Child Trust Fund and Child Tax Credits
Chapter 2: 2011 Onwards– Implement pre-election tax cut giveaways
– Including inheritance tax and marriage allowance
– At last setting out the bill families will pay
Monday, 19 April 2010
2010Chapter One
Monday, 19 April 2010
✓GDP rose 0.4% in Q4 of last year ✓Total exports rose by £1.8 billion
(9.5%) to £21.3 billion in February, the fastest growth for 7 years ✓Unemployment stabilised since
October - over half a million lower than expected
We’re on the road to recovery
Monday, 19 April 2010
UNEMPLOYMENT1993 2010
BENEFITCLAIMAINTS
2,930,6001993
1,585,1002010
It’s very different from the 90s
Monday, 19 April 2010
REPOSSESSION1991 2009
PROPERTIESREPOSSESSED
75,5001991
46,0002009
It’s very different from the 90s
Monday, 19 April 2010
It’s very different from the 90s
BUSINESS INSOLVENCY1993 2009
INSOLVENTS PER CENT OFREGISTERED BUSINESSES
2.7%1993
0.9%2009
BUSINESS INSOLVENCY1993 2009
INSOLVENTS PER CENT OFREGISTERED BUSINESSES
2.7%1993
0.9%2009
Monday, 19 April 2010
But things are still fragile
“Although we are seeing so many encouraging signs of stronger activity, the fragility of recovery, a frail labour market and possible headwinds coming from financial
markets underscore the need for caution in the removal of policy support.”
OECD Chief Economist, Pier Carlo Padoan, 7 April 2010
"A hasty retrenchment would risk pitching the economy into a double dip.”
ITEM Club, 19 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010
A dangerous time for cuts
George Osborne, Channel 4 News Online, 1 April 2010
“I made it clear : £6 billion less."
Monday, 19 April 2010
15 April 2010
Lord Skidelsky Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick
Lord Layard Emeritus Professor of Economics,
LSE
Sir David HendryProfessor of Economics,
University of Oxford
Sir James MirrleesNobel Laureate & Professor of Political Economy,
University of Cambridge
Robert SolowNobel Laureate & Emeritus Institute Professor of Economics
MIT, USA
...and 74 other signatories
Monday, 19 April 2010
Instant job losses
“The projected £1bn-£2bn savings on the public sector payroll translates into “roughly 20,000 to 40,000 job losses” ...said Colin Talbot,
professor of public management at Manchester Business School.”
8 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010
FORE
IGN
AND
COMM
ONW
EALT
H OF
FICE
CULT
URE,
MED
IA &
SPO
RT
CABI
NET O
FFIC
E
ENER
GY &
CLIM
ATE
CHAN
GE
ENVI
RONM
ENT,
FOOD
& R
URAL
AFF
AIRS
TREA
SURY
& H
MRC
WOR
K &
PENS
IONS
NORT
HERN
IREL
AND
JUST
ICE
HOME
OFF
ICE
COMM
UNITI
ES
TRAN
SPOR
T
BUSI
NESS
, INN
OVAT
ION
AND
SKILL
S
LOCA
L GOV
ERNM
ENT
CHILD
REN,
SCH
OOLS
& FA
MILIE
S
TORY CUTS2010
£
£1.78b £810m £670m £320m£330m£450m
Cuts would start with immediate effect
Monday, 19 April 2010
EDUCATIONTORY CUTS
FEWER TEACHERS
6,900PRIMARY & NURSERY
7,300SECONDARY
Tory cuts - schools’ share
Monday, 19 April 2010
POLICETORY CUTS
FEWER POLICE OFFICERS
Tory cuts - the police’s share
Monday, 19 April 2010
Tory family cuts
£CHILDTRUSTFUND
CHILDTAXCREDITS
cut cut
Monday, 19 April 2010
2011Chapter Two
O N W A R D S
Monday, 19 April 2010
2011 Onwards
“The forecast shows GDP growing by 2.7% next year and 3.4% in 2012, powered largely by exports and investment.”
ITEM Club, 19 April 2010
The ITEM Club broadly agrees with us that if we make the right decisions now we can secure strengthening
economic growth for the coming years:
Monday, 19 April 2010
2011 Onwards
"It's time for this Government to get serious, to put away their pathetic dividing lines, to put away their moral cowardice in
not dealing with this issue..."
David Cameron, Press Conference, 25 January 2010
David Cameron opposed the Government’s action to support the economy because he said that the deficit was his first priority.
Monday, 19 April 2010
Tory prioritiesDeficitRewarding marriageCiderNI contributionsInheritance tax
1.2.3.4.5.
"Debt is going to be the number one problem facing the British country."
David Cameron, BBC Radio 5, 24 April 2009
Monday, 19 April 2010
DeficitRewarding marriage
CiderNI contributionsInheritance tax
1.2.3.4.5.
Tory priorities
The Conservative leader confirmed that the £550 million package, which would make four million married couples £150 a year better off, was only a start. “I am sure over the course of a
Parliament we would be able to go further.”David Cameron, Press Association, 10 April 2009
Monday, 19 April 2010
Deficit
Rewarding marriageCider
NI contributionsInheritance tax
1.2.3.4.5.
Tory priorities
"I thought stopping the cider tax was going to be the absolute number one priority for the budget negotiations."
George Osborne, Western Morning News, 12 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010
Deficit
Rewarding marriageCiderNI contributions
Inheritance tax
1.2.3.4.5.
Tory priorities
“A tax on jobs in a recovery. That is my number one priority.”George Osborne, Sky News, 23 April 2009
Monday, 19 April 2010
Deficit
Rewarding marriageCiderNI contributionsInheritance tax
1.2.3.4.5.
Tory priorities
"If you look at what the Conservative Party has said we have not made pledge after pledge, we’ve made one pledge about inheritance tax."
David Cameron, BBC News, 4 January 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010
Osborne’s election tax giveawaysContinental holiday homes tax relief
Oppose cider duty increaseOppose broadband levy
Tax cut for married couplesFreeze council tax for 2 years
Inheritance tax cut
National insurance changes
£15m£15m
£175m
£550m
£6.7bn
Couples’ Working Tax Credit£1.5bn
£3.1bn
£1.4bn
Monday, 19 April 2010
...and there’s more
Dividend tax creditFuel duty cutCancer drugs
£???
£???
£???
£???Further cuts to corporation tax
£???
National citizens’ service
Monday, 19 April 2010
Freeze council tax
Tax cuts for married couples
Inheritance tax cut
Raise NIC thresholds
Oppose broadband levy
Oppose cider duty
Holiday home tax relief
-£700m-£550m
-£1,400m -£1,400m -£1,400m
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
-£550m -£550m -£550m-£1,500m
-£6,000m -£6,300m -£6,300m -£6,700m-£175m -£175m -£175m -£175m-£15m -£15m -£15m -£15m-£25m -£15m -£15m -£15m
-£7,465m -£8,455m -£8,455m -£13,455mAnnual cost
Total cost over Parliament £37,925m
2010/11
£0m£0m
£0m-£90m-£15m£10m
-£95m
£0m £0m £0m £0m
Couples’ tax credit £0m £0m £0m -£3,100m£0m
George Osborne’s £38bn election tax giveaways
Monday, 19 April 2010
INVOICE
Dear Householder,
Please pay £1,500
PSBigger bills coming"We will provide an emergency
Budget within 50 days of taking
office to set out a credible plan
for eliminating the bulk of the
structural current budget deficit
over a Parliament."P.7, Conservative Party manifesto
To stick to the existing deficit reduction plan the Tories would have to raise taxes or cut spending to compensate – hitting each household with a bill for £1,500
over the Parliament.
Monday, 19 April 2010
If you vote Tory in May, you’ll be stung in June
Monday, 19 April 2010