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The Trump Card STEPHEN COLAVITO, JR. MANAGING DIRECTOR – PORTFOLIO MANAGER ASSET PRESERVATION ADVISORS
The Trump CardSTEPHEN COLAVITO, JR .
MANAGING DIRECTOR – PORTFOLIO MANAGER
ASSET PRESERVATION ADVISORS
The Trump CardDisclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in these slides are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the position of Asset Preservation Advisors or their employees. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Tweets used in this presentation are fakeand have not been put on any social media. Tweets are just the speakers attempt to be funny and make light of a very complicated issue. My opinion is neither copyrighted nor trademarked, and it’s price competitive. If you like, I’ll trade for one of yours.
The Trump CardNoun
1. Informal. Something that gives one person or group the advantage over another:
2. Culture. In general, something capable of making a decisive difference when used at the right moment; in certain cards games, trump is the suit designated as having precedence over the others.
(source: Dictionary.com & The American Heritage New Dictionary)
The Trump CardNoun
1. Informal. Orange and matted on the sides, and now white/silver, wispy, swept back, defying the laws of physics and practicality on top
2. Culture. A grassroots shift in the way Washington operates, causing mass chaos on K Street in DC. All done in 140 characters or less.
(source: The Washington Post)
The Trump Carddisruptor
Noun
1. A person or thing that prevents something, especially a system, process, or event, from continuing as usual or as expected:
(source: The Washington Post)
Economic Estimates@faketrumpcard - now that I have been in the WH for 89 days – the economy is already recovering and going to be huuuuggggeee! MAGA!
Economic Estimates(Source: Bloomberg 4/3/2017)
Economic Estimates(Source: Bloomberg 4/3/2017)
Economic Estimates(Source: Bloomberg 4/3/2017)
Current 10Y UST(Source: Bloomberg 4/3/2017)
Economic Tailwinds@faketrumpcard - Why won’t the fake press look at my poll numbers. Like the people at my inauguration, it’s the highest of any President!
Current Economic Tailwinds – Consumer Confidence
Current Economic Tailwinds – Equity Markets (S&P 500 – Source Bloomberg 4/3/2017
Economic Tailwinds@faketrumpcard - No more jobs going to those losers in China and Mexico! Deregulation, better trade and lower taxes. Better days ahead! High-fives to my staff with my large strong hands!
Potential Economic Tailwinds –Deregulation
Economic Tailwinds – Potential Deregulation
Potential Economic Tailwinds –Deregulation
PotentialEconomic Tailwinds@faketrumpcard - In my meeting with Angela Merkel – she gave me a high five for lowering tax rates in the US. That is why we didn’t need to shake hands.
Potential Economic Tailwinds - Taxes
Potential Economic Tailwinds - TaxesAccording to the Tax Foundation
* Aggregate cost of Trump cuts would be roughly $4.3-5.9 trillion dollars over 10 years (on a static basis)
* Aggregated cost of Trumps cuts would be roughly $2.6-3.9 trillion dollars over 10 years (on a dynamic scoring basis)
Potential Economic Tailwinds@faketrumpcard - Loser Congress spends too much. Wasteful. Going to cut spending, but not my big beautiful hair!
Potential Economic Tailwinds - TaxesCongress has plenty of wasteful pet projects they can cut:
* Economic Assistance to Egypt - $250 million annually
* Presidential Campaign Fund - $775 million annually
* Require collection of unpaid taxes by federal employees - $1 billion dollars
* National Organic Certification Cost-Share Program - $56.2 million
* Washington Metro Area Transit Authority subsidy - $150 million annually
* Beach Replenishment - $95 million annual savings
* International Fund for Ireland - $17 million annual savings
* Department of Energy Grants to States for Weatherization - $530 million annually
* Plus many more!
Over $2.5 Trillion dollars of savings over 10 years
(Source: 2016 Congressional Pig Book – Citizens Against Government Waste)
Potential Economic Tailwinds - Taxes
Economic Tailwinds @faketrumpcard - Mexico is paying for that big beautiful wall! Border tax is like my orange tanner, it’s bright just like me!
Potential Economic Tailwinds - Taxes
Potential Economic Tailwinds - Trade
Potential Economic Tailwinds - Trade
Economic Estimates(Source: Bloomberg)
Potential Economic Tailwinds - GDP
Economic Headwinds@faketrumpcard - Economy the best it’s ever been! Media should be ashamed. I have MAGA! GDP and debt is going up. I love debt!
Economic Headwinds - Debt
Economic Headwinds - Debt
Economic Headwinds – Debt(Source: Bank of England)
Economic Headwinds - Debt
Economic Headwinds - Debt
Economic Headwinds – Debt (Hurts Economic Spending)
Potential Economic Headwinds@faketrumpcard - An extremely credible source has called my office and said everyone who wants a job will have one. Even Putin wants to move to the US to work!
Potential Economic Headwinds – Employment U3
(Source: Bloomberg)
Potential Economic Headwinds – Employment U6
(Source: Bloomberg)
Potential Economic Headwinds –Employment Participation rate 62.9
Potential Economic Headwinds – Employment Participation rate 25-54
Potential Economic Headwinds – Birth Rates
Economic Headwinds@faketrumpcard - The beauty of me is that I’m very rich. We will make workers around the U.S. that way too!
Economic Headwind – Wages
Economic Headwinds@faketrumpcard - I don’t like Apple or that woman Siri. She is unattractive and not nice. Total loser. Tim Cook could do so much better.
Potential Economic Headwinds – A.I.* Your phone is a “platform” – its not a phone
* The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in a 2016 study found that 47 percent of US jobs are at risk.
- 83 percent of jobs paying $20 an hour or less could be pressured by A.I.
- Only 4 percent of jobs paying $40 an hour or more could be pressured by A.I.
* Economist can’t seem to figure out if the economy can absorb the off-set to job losses to A.I.
* So, how can Washington “circle the square” on immigration when most of those coming into the U.S. are employed in lower (less skilled) jobs?
Potential Economic Headwinds – A.I.
Economic Headwinds@realDonaldTrump - Congratulations to Thomas Perez, who has just been named Chairman of the DNC. I could not be happier for him, or for the Republican Party!
5:20 PM – 25 Feb 2017
Potential Economic Headwinds – The Politics of Washington
In Conclusion* Frustration of the economy put an “outsider” in the White House
* Growing speculation that perhaps the Trump administration will not be able to effect the type of change that was central to his campaign promises.
* GDP growth could increase slightly if the Trump is able to deregulate (some) and make some changes to the tax code. But bipartisanship is looking less likely.
* Neither party wants to address the issue of entitlements and debt. They can keep “kicking the can” but at some point it ends up in a cul-de-sac and the results will not be pretty.
* Watch the consumer numbers carefully (auto sales, housing starts, retail sales, etc.). There is reason to believe that added consumer debt numbers (if they continue) will slow spending and thus slow GDP growth.
* The more things change…the more they stay the same.
Thank you!Thank you GA Chapter of CPAs!
Stephen Colavito
Managing Director/Portfolio Manager
Asset Preservation Advisors
678-504-4862 (Direct)
DisclosuresThank you GA Chapter of CPAs!
Stephen Colavito
Managing Director/Portfolio Manager
Asset Preservation Advisors
678-504-4862 (Direct)
Disclosures:
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