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The U. S. Official Field Crop
Statistics System
Rich Allen, Chair
Agricultural Statistics Board
Goal
Describe the information flow and key procedures for official
USDA Crop Publications
Approach
Outline timing Emphasize timeliness Describe procedures
Flow
Key dates for 2003 Report contents Report procedures Related information sources
Key 2003 Dates - 1
March 31 Prospective planting report issued by
NASS
Key 2003 Dates - 2
May 12 WAOB issues first WASDE report
projecting 2003 crop production
Key 2003 Dates - 3
June 30 NASS issues Acreage report
Key 2003 Dates - 4
August 12 NASS issues first survey based
forecast of 2003 yields
NASS Crop Survey Year Starts with June
•
June Acreage Survey
Conducted June 1-15 Large List Sample Area Frame Survey Collect Actual Planting and
Remaining Intentions
Area Frame Sample
Each State divided into land use strata
Landsat images used for first level of stratification
Segment sizes and sampling rates vary by strata
August Crop Yield Forecast
List subsample from June Ask for acreage to harvest Ask for expected yield
All producing States Telephone collections July 30-August 4
August Objective Yield
Subsample from June Area Select random fields Plant counts, row measurements
and fruit counts Major States only June 25 - August 4
Later Crop Forecasts
Similar surveys to August Comparable timing September, October and
November Repeat Objective Yield visits
End of Season Yields
Large subsample from June list Acres harvested and yield All producing States Fruit weights from Objective Yield Complete survey by December 15
Prospective Plantings
Subsample from previous June Mail and Telephone March 1 - 15
Estimating ProceduresAcreage
Direct Expansions 1% cv’s US 2-3% cv’s Major States
Ratios to previous years
Estimating ProceduresMonthly Yield
Relationships to previous surveys and final yields
Mathematical models for Objective Yield based on previous years
Estimating ProceduresEnd of Season
Review all survey acreage, yield and production data
Utilize administrative data
Estimating ProceduresProspective Plantings
Survey expansions Ratio to total cropland Ratio to previous years
Estimating ProceduresCounty Estimates
Use all survey data Use administrative data Landsat Classifications in some
States Set Districts from State Set Counties from Districts
Other Crop InformationWeekly Weather Crop
Opinion survey from Extension and other local reporters
April until harvest Designed to measure crop
progress Crop conditions also asked
Other Crop InformationAVHRR Based Vegetation Condition
Data base approach Convert to statistical products
Year to year comparisons Comparisons to median Crop specific masks
Other Crop InformationCropland Data Layer
Crop specific categorized Landsat data
Up to 10 States NASS with State and Federal
Partners Public use GIS format
Agricultural Statistics Board(ASB)
State Offices edit and summarize State Offices analyze indications State Offices submit
recommendations ASB reviews indications at National
and Regional level ASB sets final forecasts and
estimates
ASB Monthly Timing
3-day intensity period Review and set harvested acreage Review and set smaller State
yields Major State yields reviewed and
set only under lock-up conditions
ASB Lock-up Example Timing
Lock-up at Midnight Decrypt State recommendations Set U. S. corn yield at 12:30 a.m. Finish State review by 3:00 a.m.
for WAOB Prepare final report by 6:00 a.m. Release at 8:30 a.m.