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The Ugandan Dairy Subsector Staal and Kaguongo 02

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    The Ugandan Dairy Sub-Sector

    Targeting Development Opportunities

    International Livestock Research Institute

    Box 30709, Naivasha Road, Nairobi, KenyaTel: 254-2-630743 Fax: 254-2-631499Via USATel: 1- 650-833-6660 Fax: 1-650-833-6661WWW: http://www.cgiar.org/ilri

    ILRI is a Future Harvest Centre

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    THE UGANDAN DAIRY SUB-SECTOR

    TARGETING DEVELOPMENTOPPORTUNITIES

    S. J. Staal and W. N. Kaguongo

    A Contribution to the Strategic Criteria for Rural Investments in Productivity (SCRIP)

    Program of the USAID Uganda Mission

    The International Food Policy Research Institute

    2033 K Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20006

    June 2003

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    Strategic Criteria for Rural Investments in Productivity (SCRIP) is a USAID-funded

    program in Uganda implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

    in collaboration with Makerere University Faculty of Agriculture and Institute for

    Environment and Natural Resources. The key objective is to provide spatially-explicit

    strategic assessments of sustainable rural livelihood and land use options for Uganda, taking

    account of geographical and household factors such as asset endowments, human capacity,

    institutions, infrastructure, technology, markets & trade, and natural resources (ecosystem

    goods and services). It is the hope that this information will help improve the quality of

    policies and investment programs for the sustainable development of rural areas in Uganda.

    SCRIP builds in part on the IFPRI projectPolicies for Improved Land Management in

    Uganda (1999-2002). SCRIP started in March 2001 and is scheduled to run until 2006.

    The origin of SCRIP lies in a challenge that the USAID Uganda Mission set itself in

    designing a new strategic objective (SO) targeted at increasing rural incomes. The Expanded

    Sustainable Economic Opportunities for Rural Sector Growth strategic objective will be

    implemented over the period 2002-2007. This new SO is a combination of previously

    separate strategies and country programs on enhancing agricultural productivity, market and

    trade development, and improved environmental management.

    Contact in Kampala Contact in Washington, D.C.

    Simon Bolwig and Ephraim Nkonya Stanley Wood, Project Leader

    IFPRI, 18 K.A.R. Drive, Lower Kololo IFPRI, 2033 K Street, NW,

    P.O. Box 28565, Kampala Washington, D.C. 20006-1002, USA

    Phone: 041-234-613 or 077-591-508 Phone: 1-202-862-5600

    Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

    [email protected]

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    i

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................iiiKey Findings........................................................................................................................iii

    Potential Dairy Research and Development Interventions.................................................viiPro-Poor Dairy Development ..............................................................................................ix

    DAIRY PRODUCTION SYSTEMS........................................................................................3Cattle breeds and population ................................................................................................7Milk production and feeding strategies ..............................................................................12Competitiveness of milk production...................................................................................15Government Support Services ............................................................................................17

    MILK CONSUMPTION AND DAIRY PRODUCT MARKETS .........................................25Consumption of and demand for milk................................................................................25Milk and Dairy Product Marketing Chains ........................................................................27

    NATIONAL MILK PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY ESTIMATES.....................................36Milk production trends .......................................................................................................36Sources of change in increase of national milk production................................................37Changes in milk Prices .......................................................................................................39Projecting milk consumption..............................................................................................41Projection of Demand and Supply of Dairy Products ........................................................44Mapping of milk surplus and deficit...................................................................................48

    CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................................51Key findings........................................................................................................................51

    References...............................................................................................................................56APPENDIX: DETAILS OF DATA ANALYSES.................................................................58

    Mapping of measures of farmer access to services ............................................................59Mapping of average milk surplus/deficit............................................................................59

    LIST OF TABLES

    Table 1: Cattle population (000) in Uganda over for the period 1994 1999.............8Table 2: Household milk consumption by region........................................................26Table 3: Import and export of dairy products by value (000 US $) for1994 1999 35Table 4: Milk production estimates and sources of information (M l/year)................36Table 5: Sources of change in total milk production for Uganda, Tanzania and

    Kenya. .................................................................................................................. 38Table 6: Regional price estimates by various studies (Ushs) ......................................40

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    LIST OF FIGURES

    Figure 1: Map of variation in mean annual rainfall across Uganda. ............................4Figure 2: Average cattle density per square kilometer, by parish. ...............................6Figure 3: Proportion of local cattle, versus cross/grade dairy cattle, by district. ..........8Figure 4: Proportion of communities with reported access to artificial insemination

    (AI) services, by district. .....................................................................................10Figure 5: Comparison of communities with reported access to artificial insemination

    (AI) services, with proportion of improved cattle. ..............................................11Figure 6: Proportion of communities with reported access to veterinary services.....19Figure 7: Comparison of access to veterinary services and level of cattle density. ...20Figure 8: Proportion of communities with reported access to extension services,

    by district. ............................................................................................................23Figure 9: Milk market flow diagram ...........................................................................31Figure 10: Trends in national cattle population and milk production .........................37

    Figure11

    : Changes in milk production, yield and number of cows, based on FAOfigures. .................................................................................................................38Figure 12: Changes in real milk prices for central and western regions ..................... 40Figure 13: Milk production and per capita supply 1995 and 2000, Uganda, Tanzania

    and Kenya. ...........................................................................................................42Figure 14: Ratios of per capita milk consumption to per capita GDP for year 2000 ..43Figure 15: Projected milk supply and consumption in Uganda, 2000-2010 ...............46Figure 16: Estimated milk surplus or deficit, in kgs of milk/year/square kilometre,

    by parish............................................................................................................... 50

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    iii

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    This report examines current trends and circumstances in the Ugandan dairy sub-sector, with

    a view towards guiding new efforts in dairy research and development. The analysis relies

    on multiple sources of data; a) several reports on the dairy sub-sector produced over the last

    decade, including an appraisal of the industry conducted by ILRI with Ugandan partners in

    1996, and b) primary data obtained from recent land management household surveys

    conducted by IFPRI in 2002, as well as from national household and community data

    surveys conducted by the Gov. of Uganda in 1999/2000. The latter data were geo-referenced

    and put into a GIS, and a key contribution of this report is the spatial analysis of patterns of

    dairy development and associated factors. Following is a brief description of some of key

    find

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