The UK’s Commitment to Net Zero...• Low cost, low regret, make sense under the current 80%...

The UK’s Commitment to Net Zero

The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming

Julia, Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS Vice Chair of the Committee on Climate Change

8th October 2019

UK Climate Change Act 2008

2

When: science and global imperative?

How: can it be done?

How much: what will it cost?

How big: the scale of the challenge?

Even in the UK the impacts of climate change are bleak

4Source: HR Wallingford (2015) for the ASC- Updated projections of water availability in the UK

Demand as % of supplyof available supply

Scenario:• 3.5oC• low population growth• high adaptation

In some areas (dark red) there is no water available for human use during periods of low flows, assuming the needs of the natural environment are met first.

Water availability in the 2080s

Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris

5

Observed and human-induced warming

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Warm

ing

(°C

-re

lati

ve t

o 1

85

0-

19

00

) Observations

Human-induced

warming

Source: HadCRUT4, NOAA, NASA and Cowtan & Way datasets; IPCC

(2018) Chapter 1 - Framing and Context.


6

Global emissions pathways consistent with Paris

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

601990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Gre

en

ho

use

gas

em

issi

on

s (G

tCO

2e/y

r)

>66% 2°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical

Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for

integrated 1.5°C research.


7

Global emissions pathways consistent with Paris

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

601990

2000

2010

2020

2030

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2100

Gre

en

ho

use

gas

em

issi

on

s (G

tCO

2e/y

r)

>66% 2°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical




8

Evolution of global per capita emissions over time

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

151990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100G

HG

em

issi

on

s p

er

cap

ita

(tC

O2

e/p

ers

on

/yr)

>66% 2°C - Range

>50 %1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical - World

Historical - UK




9

Evolution of global per capita emissions over time

-5

0

5

10

15

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

per

cap

ita

(tC

O2

e/p

ers

on

/yr) >66% 2°C - Range

>50 %1.5°C - Range

>50% 1.5°C - Median

>66% 2°C - Median

Historical - World

Historical - UK



20

25

30

35

Australia

UK

World

International context: Paris Agreement

10

• Paris:

• Consistent with highest possible ambition

• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances

• The UK should target net zero early:

• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole

• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person

• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act

• Should contribute more on an equity basis

• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis

• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change

• and as a result is a rich economy

• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint

• Should support the global effort

• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries

• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind

• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development

Progress in reducing emissions

11

UK Australia


12

• Paris:
















UK Carbon Footprint: consumption emissions

Net Zero – the UK’s contribution to stopping global warming CCC 2019. Excludes F-gas emissions and international aviation and shipping 13

Financial crisis/recession

Consumption vs territorial emissions 2016

CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 includes international aviation and shipping 14


15

• Paris:
















International pathways: leadership driven scenarios

CCC Net Zero 2019: UCL research 16

• Developed regions

• In line with emerging commitments: achieve

or exceed net zero by 2050

• Large emerging economies eg China

• Improve on NDCs, peak soon, reduce rapidly

over next 20 years, reach net zero before the

end of the century

• Efficiency, decarbonising power,

electrification, CCS

• Developing regions

• Leapfrog to low carbon development paths,

low per capita emissions, can reach net zero

until well after 2050

• Per person emissions from the developed regions in 2050 would be lower than in the rest of the world


17

• Paris:
















Technology cost reduction: offshore wind

CCC analysis 2017 18

Latest Contracts for Difference auction prices

CfD Auction Results Sept 2019


19

• Paris:




















Source of emissions: UK and Victoria

CCC analysis 2018 21

UK Victoria

The journey so far

CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 22

Australia: change in emissions by sector

23

From 80% to 100%

CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 24

Options to reduce emissions 1

25

Core options: to 77%

• Low cost, low regret, make sense under the

current 80% target

• Broadly reflect Government’s current ambition

– but not necessarily policy implementation

• eg energy efficiency, phase out of

conventionally fuelled vehicles by 2040,

progress with zero carbon power generation,

first industrial cluster by 2040, Carbon Capture,

Utilisation and Storage action plan, wood in

construction, limited implementation of

BECCS, afforestation 27,000 hectares per

annum

• Remaining emissions mainly from industry,

agriculture, aviation, heavy transport and

heating of buildings

• Carbon prices typically below ~ £20 per tonne


26

Further ambition: to 96%

• More challenging, more costly, existing technologies

• Electricity 95% low carbon power, including hydrogen

• Buildings 90% low carbon heating including hydrogen

• All cars and vans electric by 2050; HGVs electric or hydrogen

• Industry: CCS, hydrogen and electrification

• Waste: 70% recycling, zero biodegradable waste to landfill by 2025

• Shipping: faster implementation of efficiency and alternative fuels

• Agriculture and land use: improved livestock breeding and diets; 20%

reduction in beef , lamb and dairy, increased yields, 30,000 hectares per

annum afforestation; 55% peatland restoration, increased energy crops

• Aviation: 60% increase in demand with further technical improvements

• CO2 removal: afforestation, wood in construction, BECCS, DACCs –

small scale; CCS: 175Mt CO2 captured and stored in 2050

• Carbon price up to £120/tonne – industry and heat at top end

CO2 Removal 2050


27

Speculative options: to 100%

• Low technology readiness; high costs; acceptability issues

• Not all available by 2050, some required for net zero

• Significant societal and behaviour changes:

• 50% reduction in beef, lamb and dairy

• No growth in aviation from today

• Afforestation, 50,000 ha/annum, peatland restoration

• More ambitious BECCS – increased energy crops

• Increased DACCS – 14% increase in CCS, +10GW OSW

• Enhanced weathering and biochar

• Synthetic fuels – +33% generating capacity

• CCS capture rates at 99%

• Increased use of hydrogen

• Carbon price to > £300 per tonne

28

2040s2030s2020s

Electricity

Hydrogen

Buildings

Road Transport

Industry

Land Use

Expand electricity system, decarbonise mid-merit/peak

generation (e.g. using hydrogen), deploy bioenergy with CCS

Widespread deployment in industry, use in back-up electricity generation,

heavier vehicles (e.g. HGVs, trains) and potentially heating on the coldest days

Widespread electrification, expand heat networks,

gas grids potentially switch to hydrogen

Start large-scale hydrogen

production with CCS

Largely decarbonise electricity:

renewables, flexibility, coal phase-out

Efficiency, heat networks, heat

pumps (new-build, off-gas, hybrids)

Turn over fleets to zero-emission vehicles: cars & vans before HGVsRamp up EV market, decisions on HGVs

Afforestation, peatland restoration

Agriculture

Further CCS, widespread use of

hydrogen, some electrification

Healthier diets, reduced food waste, tree growing and low-carbon farming practices

Initial CCS clusters,

energy & resource efficiency

@ChiefExecCCC

How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered

29

2040s2030s2020s

Aviation

Shipping

Waste

F-Gases

Removals

Infra-structure

Limit emissions from combustion of non-bio

wastes (e.g. deploy measures to reduce emissions from waste water)Reduce waste, increase recycling rates,

landfill ban for biodegradable waste

Deployment of BECCS in various forms, demonstrate direct

air capture of CO₂, other removals depending on progressDevelop options & policy framework

Co-benefits

Hydrogen supply for industry & potentially buildings, roll-out of infrastructure for

hydrogen/electric HGVs, more CCS infrastructure, electricity network expansion

Health benefits due to improved air quality, healthier diets and more walking & cyclingClean growth and industrial opportunities

Industrial CCS clusters, decisions on gas

grid & HGV infrastructure, expand vehicle

charging & electricity grids

@ChiefExecCCC

Operational measures, new plane efficiency, constrained demand growth, limited sustainable biofuels

Operational measures, new ship fuel efficiency, use of ammonia

Move almost completely away from F-gases






Reaching net-zero emissions in the UKCosts and benefits of meeting a UK net-zero target

31

Innovation and falling technology costs are reducing the cost of meeting the target

Changes in cost estimates for long-term emissions goals

GHG emissions reduction target (relative to 1990)

Year and report Cost range estimated for 2050

60% reduction in CO₂ (~55%

reduction in GHG)

2003 - Energy White Paper 0.5-2.0% of GDP

80% reduction in GHG 2008 - Building a low-carbon economy – the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change

1-2% of GDP

100% reduction in GHG 2019 – Net Zero report 1-2% of GDP

Reaching net-zero emissions in the UKCosts and benefits of meeting a UK net-zero target

32

A 2030 switchover to electric vehicles would save more money than a 2040 switchover

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Net co

st o

f sw

itch

ing t

o e

lect

ric

cars

and

vans

(£b

n/y

ear) 2040 phase-out

2030 phase-out

Source: CCC analysis

Benefits

33

• Reducing the impacts of climate change

• Flooding, heatwaves, crop failures, migration…

• £££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££

• Economic opportunities

• Clean growth; fastest growing sector of UK economy

• Health benefits ~ 1.3% GDP

• More exercise, cleaner air, noise reduction, healthier

diets, healthier homes

• Environment

• More woodlands, hedgerows, wildlife, recreation, water

and soil quality…





Societal/behavioural change needed

35

38%

53%

9%

Low-carbon technologies or fuels not

societal / behavioural changes

Measures with a combination of low-

carbon technologies and societal /

behavioural changes

Largely societal or behavioural changes


How big? In the next 30 years…

36

• Electricity system x2 to x4

• Offshore wind 10 GW to 75 - 100GW

• Hydrogen production 27TWh to 350TWh

• CCS 0 to 180 Mt CO2

• Afforestation 10,000 to 50,000 hectares pa

• 29 million existing homes installed with low carbon heat

• Zero carbon cars 100,000 to 35 million

• Major changes in agriculture and land use

• Major changes to diet: beef, lamb and dairy consumption halved

All at the same time

@ChiefExecCCC 37

H2 H2H2H2 H2H2

Energy supply Energy use Land

CO2 storage

H2H2H2 H2H2


@ChiefExecCCC 38

H2 H2H2H2 H2H2

Energy supply Energy use Land

CO2 storage

H2H2H2 H2H2


A few final reflections

We don’t have all the answers

40

Remaining emissions in the 96% ‘Further Ambition’ scenario


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2050

emissions

by sector

MtC

O2

e

F-gases

Nitrous oxide

Methane

Carbon dioxide

Shipping

F-gases

Surface transport

Power

Hydrogen production

Buildings

Waste

Industry

Agriculture

Aviation

Engineered removals

LULUCF

Fossil fuel use continues

41

Total CO₂ captured and stored due to Further Ambition options in 2050


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

CO₂ captured and stored in 2050

MtC

O2

Fossil CCS (power generation)

Fossil CCS (hydrogen production)

Direct air capture with CCS

BECCS (all sectors)

Fossil CCS (industry)

Innovation has moved the dial

42

Costs of example low-carbon technologies compared to past projectionsOffshore wind (left) Battery packs (right)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016

2020

2025

2030

Leveli

sed

cost

of

ele

ctri

city

-£

/MW

h

(£2

01

8)

DECCestimate(2012)

Contractssigned in2013



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Batt

ery

pack

co

st -

$/K

Wh

(£

20

18

)

CCCcentralestimate(2011)

Actualaveragecost

Source: Offshore wind costs, CCC analysis based on DECC (2012) Electricity generation costs and LCCC (2019) CfD register. Battery forecasts,

CCC (2015) Sectoral scenarios for the 5th Carbon Budget, outturn costs from BNEF (2018) Electric cars to reach price parity by 2022

We need to get going…

Greta Thunberg

44

“This needs Cathedral Thinking.

We can build the foundations without

knowing exactly how we will complete

the roof”

Thank you!

www.theccc.org.uk

Our approach to forecasting

@ChiefExecCCC 46

Security

of supply

Fuel

poverty

Competi

-tiveness

Fiscal

impactsEconomic

impacts

Air quality

& health

Impacts

UK Carbon Budgets (interim targets)

Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy

Power Buildings Industry Transport AgricultureWaste &

F-gases

Climate

science

International

& EU

2050 Target

Fossil fuel use continues

@ChiefExecCCC 47

Use and production of Hydrogen in 2050


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hydrogen demand Hydrogen production

TW

h

Electrolysis

Advanced gas-

reforming

Agriculture

Power generation

Industry

Heat in buildings

Surface transport

Shipping

Summary recommendations

48

• Net zero target is only credible if policy to reduce emissions ramps up significantly

‒ The target can only be delivered with a strengthening of policy to deliver emissions reductions across all levels and

departments of government. This will require strong leadership at the heart of Government. Delivery must progress

with far greater urgency.

‒ Policies must be designed with businesses and consumers in mind. They must be stable, long-term and investable. The

public must be engaged, and other key barriers such as low availability of necessary skills must be addressed.

‒ Report emphasises previous CCC recommendations for: Heating buildings; CCS; Electric vehicles; Agriculture; Waste;

Low Carbon Power.

‒ With new recommendations for stronger approaches to: Industry; land use; HGVs; aviation and shipping; and GHG

removals.

• Overall costs are manageable, but must be fairly distributed. Rapid cost reductions during mass deployment for key

technologies mean that net zero can be met an annual resource cost of up to 1-2% of GDP to 2050, the same cost as the

previous expectation for an 80% reduction from 1990.

• HM Treasury should undertake a review of how the transition will be funded and where the costs will fall. It should

develop a strategy to ensure this is, and is perceived to be, fair. A broader strategy will also be needed to ensure a ‘just transition’ across society, with vulnerable workers and consumers protected.

CCC recommendations to Government 2nd May 2019

49

• The UK should legislate as soon as possible to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The target can be

legislated as a 100% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1990 using the existing Climate Change Act procedures.

• The target should cover all sectors of the economy, including international aviation and shipping.

• The aim should be to meet the target through UK domestic effort, without relying on international carbon units (or

‘credits’).

• Now is the right time to set a net zero target. It is technically possible, based on current consumer behaviours and known technologies, with prudent assumptions over cost reduction.

• An earlier date should not be set at this stage. Some sectors could reach net zero earlier, but for most sectors 2050

appears to be the earliest credible date, to give time to develop speculative options as alternatives for any shortfalls.

Avoiding the need for early capital scrappage or punitive policies.

• The target is an appropriate contribution to the Paris Agreement. The UK can benefit from the international influence

of setting this bold target, using it as an opportunity for further positive international collaboration.

• Wales should set a target for a 95% reduction in emissions by 2050 relative to 1990. Wales has less opportunity for

CO2 storage and relatively high agricultural emissions that are hard to reduce. On current understanding it could not

credibly reach net-zero GHGs by 2050.

• Scotland should aim for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. Scotland has proportionately greater potential

for emissions removal than the UK overall and can credibly adopt a more ambitious target. Interim targets should be set

for Scottish emissions reductions (relative to 1990) of 70% by 2030 and 90% by 2040.

Victoria’s emissions 1990 - 2016

50

Victoria’s emissions by sector 2016

51

Victoria’s climate change framework

52

Victoria’s four pillars for emissions reduction

53

Relationship between hot weather and averages

54

Electricity generation mix in Victoria 2014

55

Australia 2018/19 emissions by sector

56

Australia: electricity generation

57

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The UK’s Commitment to Net Zero...• Low cost, low regret, make sense under the current 80%...

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