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The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

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Climate Change Expert Group The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics Gregory Briner Climate Justice Dialogue – Mobilising Bold Action 4 April 2013
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Page 1: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

Climate Change Expert Group

The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

Gregory Briner

Climate Justice Dialogue – Mobilising Bold Action4 April 2013

Page 2: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

2 Climate Change Expert Group

The road from Doha

“Determined to adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties ... at [COP 21] and for it to come into effect and be implemented from 2020.” Decision 2/CP.18

Page 3: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

3 Climate Change Expert Group

Principles of the Convention

Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities

Consideration of the needs of particularly vulnerable countries

Promotion of sustainable development

Promotion of an open international economic system

Equity

Lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason to postpone action

Page 4: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

4 Climate Change Expert Group

A note of caution on the use of indicators

Many indicators can be used and each paints a different picture

Data quality and availability can vary greatly between countries and indicators

Page 5: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1990

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 6: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1991

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 7: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1992

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 8: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1993

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 9: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1994

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 10: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1995

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 11: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1996

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 12: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1997

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 13: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1998

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 14: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

1999

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 15: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2000

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 16: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2001

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 17: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2002

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 18: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2003

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 19: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2004

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 20: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2005

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 21: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2006

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 22: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2007

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 23: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2008

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 24: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2009

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 25: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

MtC

O2-

eq)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

non-Annex I Annex I

2010

Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions

3

Non-Annex I

Annex I

Source: IEA

Page 26: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics
Page 27: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Ann

ual G

HG

em

issi

ons e

xcl.

LULU

CF (M

tCO

2-eq

)

GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)

2010There is variation within regional groups

Source: IEA

Brazil

Mexico

Argentina

ColombiaPeru

ChileCosta Rica

Page 28: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly

Source: IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Ave

rage

GH

G e

mis

sion

s per

capi

ta e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

tCO

2-eq

)

Cumulative population (billion)

1990

ChinaIndia

US

Europe

Russ

ia

Page 29: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

Source: IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Ave

rage

GH

G e

mis

sion

s per

capi

ta e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

tCO

2-eq

)

Cumulative population (billion)

2010

China

India

US

Europe

Russ

ia

The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly

Page 30: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly

Source: IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Ave

rage

GH

G e

mis

sion

s per

capi

ta e

xcl.

LULU

CF si

nks (

tCO

2-eq

)

Cumulative population (billion)

2020

China

India

US

Europe

Russ

ia

Page 31: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates

1990

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GH

G e

mis

sion

s pe

r uni

t GD

P (k

gCO

2-eq

)

GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)

1990Russia

IndiaSouth Africa

EU

China

US

Source: IEA

Page 32: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GH

G e

mis

sion

s pe

r uni

t GD

P (k

gCO

2-eq

)

GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)

2010China

Russia

South Africa

EU

India US

Source: IEA

Page 33: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GH

G e

mis

sion

s pe

r uni

t GD

P (k

gCO

2-eq

)

GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)

2020China

Russia

South Africa

EU

India US

Source: IEA

Page 34: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

Moving beyond GDP: Gini Index and the Human Development Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Gin

i Ind

ex in

200

8

Human Development Index in 2011

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia

Europe

Africa

BrazilColombiaHonduras

Niger

Egypt

Côte d'Ivoire Thailand

Afghanistan PakistanVietnam

Ukraine

Slovakia

Russia

Poland

Costa Rica MexicoPeru

El Salvador

Source: World Bank

Page 35: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

35 Climate Change Expert Group

Implications for the ADP negotiationsShould aim to make the post-2020 agreement

“future proof”No single quantitative indicator can give a

complete picture of countries’ responsibilities or capabilities

Caution would be needed if these metrics were to be used as indicators of responsibilities or capabilities

Vulnerability and adaptation indicators are difficult to develop

Some of the information that would be most helpful to know (e.g. mitigation potential, abatement costs) is highly uncertain or unavailable for many countries

Page 36: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

36 Climate Change Expert Group

Latest CCXG workMaking Markets: Unpacking Design and Governance of Carbon Market Mechanisms (November 2012)Andrew Prag, Gregory Briner (OECD) and Christina Hood (IEA) Projecting Emissions Baselines for National Climate Policy: Options for Guidance to Improve Transparency (November 2012)Christa Clapp and Andrew Prag (OECD) Crossing the Threshold: Ambitious Baselines for the UNFCCC New Market-Based Mechanism (May 2012)Andrew Prag and Gregory Briner (OECD) Tracking Climate Finance: What and How? (May 2012)Christa Clapp, Jane Ellis, Julia Benn, Jan Corfee-Morlot (OECD)

www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg

Page 37: The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics

37 Climate Change Expert Group

Thank you

Gregory Briner

[email protected]/env/cc/ccxg


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