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CLIMATE CHANGEHITS HOMEIS THE BAY AREA READY?

105/06.11 I LETTER FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Change we don't want to believe in

Gabriel Metcalf isSPUR's executivedirector

This issue of the Urbanist marks a sad moment

for us. You are holding a publication devoted tothe question of what we need to do to prepare

for a radically changing climate on planet Earth.

Despite our best efforts, we as a species have notmeaningfully slowed the growth of heat-trapping

gases generated by badly organized human

activity.We are not giving up on doing all we can to

stop climate change from getting worse - that is

where a huge part of our effort at SPUR has beengoing, and it will continue to be where we focus.

But meanwhile we must adapt to a new reality:

Temperatures are warming. The seas are rising.

The snow in the mountains is melting earlier. Andthese impacts will only intensify in the coming

years.

Part of the problem is that greenhouse gases

accumulate and remain in the atmosphere for de­

cades, even centuries. So even if the whole worldstopped burning coal and driving cars tomorrow,

the Earth would still continue to warm, and seas

would continue to rise, for hundreds of years. If

we take longer to change our ways, and put more

carbon into the atmosphere before we do so, theconsequences will be much worse.

Our conclusion is that we now have to open a

second front in this war: in addition to fighting to

stop generating greenhouse gases, we must alsobegin dealing with the consequences of what we

have already done and what we are going to do

in the near future. While we continue to work toreduce greenhouse gases, we must simultaneously

start rebuilding our cities to survive in a changed

climate.What makes this particularly sad for SPUR is our

conviction that it doesn't have to be this way. Weknow exactly what it would take to stop generating

greenhouse gases: switching from coal to other

fuels; retrofitting the country's building stock to useless energy; and retrofitting our cities so that walk­

ing, biking and transit work for almost all trips.

Our specialty at SPUR is this final piece. The

overarching thrust of our community and regional

planning work is directing regional growth into

walkable, compact patterns instead of sprawl. The

imperative to stop building in car-oriented ways

Even if the whole world

stopped burning coal and

driving cars tomorrow, the

earth would still continue to

warm, and seas would continue

to rise, for hundreds of years.

We now have to open a second

front in our war on global

warming: While we continue

to work to reduce greenhouse

gases, we must simultaneously

start rebuilding our cities to

survive in a changed climate.

informs every comment we make in neighborhood­planning workshops and all of our planning

advocacy work.

We are committed to working as hard as we can

to help make these connections clear: PreservingSan Francisco exactly the way it is puts more

growth pressure on lower-density parts of the

region that tend to lack transit. This means con­tinuing the American pattern of heavy reliance on

the automobile. And this is the reason, beyond all

others, that Americans generate more greenhousegases than Europeans. The status quo is no longer

an ethical option.Creating a more sustainable, transit-oriented Bay

Area will be hard. But consider how hard it will be

to protect ourselves from five meters of sea levelrise (which is possible in a few hundred years) or

to abandon entire cities because no levee can be

built high enough. We are going to do everything

we can to keep from getting to that point. But we

would be foolish to ignore the possibility that it will

happen anyway. Unlike many less fortunate partsof the world, we have the resources to plan ahead

for foreseeable disasters. Let's begin now.• '"><>(J

2 Urbanist> May / June 2011

May I June 2011

What we're doing

CITY APPROVES PAYROLL TAXEXEMPTION; TWITTER WILL STAYOn April 12, the Board of Supervisorsapproved a seven-year payroll tax exemptionfor companies locating in the Mid-Market area.The move will keep Twitter from leaving SanFrancisco while creating jobs in a strugglingneighborhood. SPUR supported this measure,but we continue to call for a long-term solutionthat will retain the many other growing firmsthat San Francisco's unique payroll tax mightdeter. SPUR has long argued for replacing thepayroll tax with either a gross receipts tax or atax on behavior we want to discourage, likepollution. SPUR will be working hard to keepup the momentum for a broader reform effortthat will help make San Francisco a goodhome for all innovative companies - even theones we don't know about yet. Read GabrielMetcalf's editorial at bit.lyjpayrolltaxreform.

FITCH DOWNGRADES SFBOND RATINGLast month Fitch Ratingdowngraded the City and Countyof San Francisco's bond ratingfor $2.6 billion, which mayincrease the cost of borrowing forthe City. The rating agency citedrecurring large-scale budgetdeficits, extensive use ofone-time solutions to addressrecession-induced shortfalls,increasing pension costs and the$4.3 billion unfunded retireehealthcare liability as leading

factors in the rating reduction.SPUR has advocated forimprovements to the City'sbudgeting to remedy thesesystemic weaknesses. The Fitchanalysis called out the success ofSPUR budget reform efforts,including 2009's Proposition A,as critical in stabilizing the City'sreserves. The City is also in theprocess of developing a five-yearfinancial plan and other fiscalpolicies as a result of thoseefforts. The downgrade signalsthe importance of dealing withthe City's rising pension and

retiree health obligations. Anumber of competing reformproposals are under developmentand potentially headed for theballot in November 2011.

NEW SF URBAN WATER PLANOPEN FOR COMMENTIn late April, the San FranciscoPublic Utilities Commissionreleased its draft 2010 UrbanWater Management Plan. Thisplan, required by the state for allurban water agencies every fiveyears, includes county-widedemand projections to the year2035, compares them withavailable water supplies andincludes management measuresto reduce long-term waterdemand. The plan also includesa discussion of significant waterconservation measures that theSFPUC will implement over thenext five years. Public commenton the plan is open until May 27,2011, with a public hearing onMay 24. For more informationvisit sfwater.org.

SPUR TO SERVE ON BETTERMARKET STREET COMMITTEEBenjamin Grant, SPUR's PublicRealm and Urban DesignProgram Manager, has beeninvited to serve on the BetterMarket Street Civic DesignAdvisory Committee, which willmeet monthly to support theCity's Better Market StreetProject. The project seeks toimprove Market Street to meet itspotential as San Francisco's civicspine and one of its mostimportant public spaces. Tolearn more, go to www.bettermarketstreetsf.org.

SPUR FORUMPRESENTATIONS NOWONLINECan't make it to a SPUR forum?Want to get briefed on what youmissed? Good news: selectedspeaker presentations are nowavailable on our website. Viewvideos and PowerPointpresentations from many of ourpast forums at spur.org/events.Use the Past Events calendar tonavigate to the month and forumof your choice, tllen scroll dOWl1

to the "Missed the EvenP"section to find the PDF file orvideo link. Presentations nowonline include Seattle PlanningDirector Marshall Foster's"Update From the Emerald City"(bitly/planningseattle) and our"Debate Worth Having" betweenplanner Peter Calthorpe andSave the Bay's David Lewis overthe proposed Saltworksdevelopment (bit.ly/saltworksdebate).•

Weigh in on the futureof Ocean BeachJoin us Saturday, June 4, toprovide input and feedback onthe future of Ocean Beach. TheOcean Beach Master Plan team,along with its agency partnersand community advisors,is hard at work analyzingthe implications of differentapproaches to erosion, sea-levelrise, ecology and infrastructure.We invite the public to weigh inon these alternative scenariosas we work toward a preferredapproach in the coming months.Learn more or subscribe toproject updates at www.spur.org/oceanbeach.

Urbanist> May /June 2011 3

Adopted by the SPUR Board onFebruary 16, 2011

SPUR staff: Laura Tam

SPUR interns: Timothea Tway,Alexis Smith, Elizabeth Antin

SPUR blue ribbon task force:Andy Barnes, David Behar,Brad Benson, Claire Bonham­Carter, Xantha Bruso, PeterDrekmeier, Ted Droettboom,Steve Goldbeck, NoahGoldstein, Amy Hutzel, MichelleJesperson, Laurie Johnson,Doug Kimsey, Ken Kirkey, DavidLewis, Jacinta McCann, PaulOkamoto, Emily Pimentel, JulianPotter, Bruce Riordan, RebeccaRosen, Miriam Rotkin-Ellman,Bry Sarte, Will Travis, MargaretWilliams, Abby Young

This report was made possibleby the generous support of theSan Francisco Foundation andaCommunity Action Grant fromthe Urban Land Institute.

4 Urbanist> May / June 2011

05/06.11 From our transportation, energy and watersystems to our personal health and safety, Bay

SPUR Area residents face dramatic impacts as theEarth's atmosphere continues to warm. Here are

REPORT the tangible effects we can expect to see - andwhat local governments can do now to protect ourmost vulnerable systems.

Sea level rise. Higher temperatures. Less freshwater. Some climate hazards can no longerbe prevented. It's time to start adapting.

CLIMATE CHANGEHITS HOME

- - -

We have known about the perils ofclimatechange for more than two decades. But globalefforts to slow it down by reducing greenhouse­gas emissions have largely failed. Even wheremajor efforts are moving forward, such asCalifornia's Assembly Bill 32, reductions willnot begin for 10 years - and they only representa fraction ofworld emissions. Meanwhile, theconcentration of atmospheric greenhouse gaseshas continued to rise at an increasing rate.

Even ifwe stop producing greenhouse gasestomorrow, the high concentration of carbondioxide already in the atmosphere from historicemissions - which started in the 19th century- will cause the climate to continue to change.As a result we must not only intensify our effortsto reduce climate change but prepare for itsinevitable effects. These two efforts are knownas climate change mitigation and adaptation.

In SPUR's 2009 report "Critical Cooling," weexplored the challenge of mitigation at the local

level, recommending a set of carbon-reductionstrategies for the City of San Francisco.' Inthis report, SPUR addresses how we shouldadapt to climate change in the Bay Area andmake ourselves more resilient to its mostsevere impacts, including extreme weatherand sea level rise. 2 The State of California hasbeen proactive in developing climate-impactstrategies,3 but there has been less guidancefor local governments, which may be the leadagencies going forward due to the geographicnature of climate risks. Without properplanning, local governments may resort to moread-hoc approaches, even emergency responses.We look at six key areas - health and safety,transportation, ecosystems, energy, watermanagement and sea level rise planning - andrecommend more than 30 strategies for localand regional agencies to begin minimizing theregion's vulnerabilities to these long-term butpotentially catastrophic effects.

I Critical Cooling can be found at spur.org/publications/library/report/crilical _ cooling

2 SPUR has also written in-depth articles on sealevel rise in the Bay Area and the advantagesand disadvantages of seven physical strategiesfor adapting the shoreline to sea level rise,available at spur.org/publications/library/report/sealevelrise _ tlOlO9

l The cross-agency California AdaptationStrategy is available at climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/

The Embarcadero during a2011 "King Tide" event - thehighest tide of the year ­shows our vulnerability tofuture sea level rise, where sealevels may regularly be as highas today's flood levels.

Urbanist> May /June 2011 5

6 Urbanist> May /June 2011

1. The more mitigation we do now, the less adaptation we may have to do in the future, becauseclimate impacts could be less severe. Without any mitigation, adaptation will be more difficult and moreexpensive, and more people are likely to suffer.

Il

CO, in atmosphere:100 to 300 years

Sea level rise due to icemelting: several millennia

Sea level rise due tothermal expansion:centuries to millennia

Temperature:a few centuries

1000 yearsTIME TO STABILIZE

Best case scenario:CO, emissions peakin next 100 years

Today 100 years

UJC::l!::zC)ex:~

Source: Adapted from BCDC's. "Living with a Rising Bay," 2009. Based on data from IPCC.

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE OUR CLIMATE TO STABILIZE?

Principles of Climate Adaptation

2. Mitigation is much less expensive than adaptation. Mitigation to a stable level of atmospheric carbonwould cost about one percent of global GDP by 2050, but unmitigated climate impacts would cost between five and 20percent of global GDP. If no actions are taken, climate change-related damage across California could cost anywherefrom $7 billion to $46 billion per year.

3: Mitigation should happen globally. Because it is the least expensive way to prevent suffering, mitigation is thefirst and most important policy tool for managing climate change. Ideally, though, mitigation policy is implemented at aninternational or national level, where the scope of emissions is much broader.

4. Adaptation must happen locally. Adaptation planning identifies a set of actions to decrease a system'svulnerability, or increase its resilience, to the impacts of climate change. Because these impacts are geographicallyvariable, and vulnerabilities to these impacts are more variable still, local knowledge is necessary to understand risksand reduce vulnerabilities, which means we must plan adaptation actions fairly close to home.

5. Adaptation strategies should be implemented according to future conditions, regular assessmentand recalibration. This process, called adaptive management, is necessary because there is great uncertainty abouthow fast the climate is changing and when its predicted effects may occur. Without careful monitoring of conditions, wemay adopt the wrong adaptation strategy, pay too much for one or pay too little.

6. Some adaptation strategies have benefits that can be realized today. Some adaptation planning actionscan be adopted right away and may be things we are working on already to achieve other policy goals. Two examplesof these "no regrets" adaptation strategies include energy efficiency and water conservation, both activities that arevaluable today and may be even more valuable under future climate change.

Even if we succeed at reducingour emissions completely bythe end of this century orsooner, it will take centuriesfor the climate - and theeffects of global warming andsea level rise - to stabilize.

Climate change impacts in the Bay AreaWe expect climate change to manifest locally in three primary ways:

Higher temperatures and heat wavesTemperature changes are the primary marker of climate

change, and they are also the key driver of changes in othernatural systems such as sea levels and hydrologic cycles.The California Adaptation Strategy projects a rise of4 to9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, the higher end of the rangecorresponding to higher-emission world developmentscenarios modeled by the United Nations' IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change.

This means that statewide average temperatures willincrease, with more pronounced increases in the summermonths and nighttime temperatures. Heat waves are expectedto increase in frequency, with individual heat waves becominglonger and extending over a larger area.

There will be an increase in the number of"extreme heatdays" - days that exceed the region's 90th-percentile averagetemperature. This will increase the likelihood ofheat-relatedillness and deaths, burdens that will fall disproportionately onvulnerable communities, especially the poor, the elderly andyoung children.4

Water uncertainty: droughts, wildfire,extreme storms and flooding

Toward the end of the century we are likely to experiencemore prolonged shortages in freshwater supplies, as well asextreme weather that could increase local and urban floodingfrom severe storms.

The Sierra snowpack - which provides natural waterstorage essential for many Bay Area water agencies - is likelyto melt earlier in the year and more rapidly. Longer and drierdroughts are predicted before the end ofthe century, leadingto increasing frequency and magnitude ofwater shortages,and exacerbating conflict over an already stretched resource.Across the state, more precipitation will fall as rain instead ofsnow, leading to water-storage challenges in the dry season.Higher temperatures will also increase water demand acrossall sectors: domestic, agricultural, commercial and industrial.As droughts are expected to increase in frequency - due tothe dry season starting earlier and ending later - wildfiresare expected to increase in both frequency and intensity.

In the winter, heavier downpours and increased runoffcould contribute to sewer overflows. Urban flooding fromextreme storms could threaten public health and safety,damage property and impair coastal water quality.

There are 22 wastewater treatment plants on the Bay Area'sshoreline that are vulnerable to a 55-inch rise in sea level, theupper end of projections by 2100.5 Many treatment plants relyon gravity to discharge treated water to the Bay. As Bay waterlevels rise, this mechanism could fail and significantly affectfacility operations.

Sea level riseSea level rise occurs because of two natural processes

that have been occurring since the last ice age endedapproximately 10,000 years ago. The first is the expansionof the oceans, which increase in volume as they absorbatmospheric and land-generated heat. The second is themelting ofland-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets thatoccupy vast areas of Greenland and Antarctica.

In the past 10 to 15 years, the rate ofglobal sea level risehas increased by about 50 percent and is now averaging 3millimeters per year. Human-induced global warming is amajor contributor to this accelerated rise. In California, weare likely to experience a sea level rise of about 16 inches by2050 and about 55 inches by 2100 - and much more afterthat.6 These estimates are based on ranges that correspondto several global greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. In thehighest-emission scenario, the range of estimated end-of­century sea level rise is between 43 a.nd R9 inr.hp.s.7

The degree of sea level rise in the region depends on landsubsidence or tectonic uplift. Some communities of the SouthBay, which heavily extracted groundwater up through the1960s, have sunk below today's sea level by as much as 13 feet.Parts of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that ha.ve beenheavily channelized, diked, eroded and oxidized are now 25feet below sea level. Areas that are sinking or losing land areaor wetlands to erosion will experience the impacts of sea levelrise sooner and perhaps with greater intensity.

Most ofthe near-term damage we expect on developedareas will be from storm conditions that occur at the sametime as high tides. Storms cause extreme lows in air pressure,allowing the sea level to instantaneously rise above predictedtides. Storms also increase winds, especially onshore winds,that cause bigger, more erosive waves. Finally, they bring rain,which increases water volume in creeks and rivers. As sealevels rise, low-lying areas protected by already fragile leveeswill face even greater risk.

, Morello~Frosch, Rachel, Manuel Pastor, James Sadd, and Seth B. Shonkoff. 2009. The Climate Gap.Inequalities in How Climate Change Hurts Americans &How to Close the Gap. college.usc.edu/pere/documents/The _ Climate _ Gap _ Full _ Report _ FINAl.pdf

'Heberger, Matthew, Heather Cooley, Pablo Herrera, Peter H. Gleick, and Eli Moore of the Pacific Institute.May 2009. The Impacts of Sea~level Rise on the California Coast. APaper from the California Climate ChangeCenter, prepared by the Pacitic Institute. Report No. CEC~500~2009~024~F, http,f/wlYlY.pacinst.org/reports/sea _ level _ rise/report.pdf

, From Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). April 2009. Living with aRising Bay,Vulnerability and Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and on its Shoreline. Draft Staff Report., p. 137. bcdc.ca.gov/proposed _ bay _ plan/bp _ 1~08 _ cc _ draft.pdf.

1 Based on a2000 baseline. State of California Sea Level Rise Interim Guidance Document, October 2010,developed by the Coastal and Ocean Working Group of the California Climate Action Team. t6 inches bymidcentury and 55 inches by end ot century have been adopted by State agencies including the State LandsCommission and the Coastal Conservancy as planning estimates.

Urbanist> May / June 2011 7

, English, Paul, California Department of PublicHealth, presentation to SPUR's task force inApril20lD.

9 Miller, Norman L., Jiming Jin, KatharineHayhoe, and Maximilian Auffhammer.2007. Climate Change, Extreme Heat, andEnergy Demand in California. CaliforniaEnergy Commission, PIER Energy RelatedEnvironmental Research Program.CEC 500 2007 023.

l' Knowlton, K. et al. 2009. "The 2006 CaliforniaHeat Wave, Impacts on Hospitalizations andEmergency Department Visits." EnvironmentalHealth Perspectives. lIHI-67.

II Reid, C., et al. 2009, "Mapping CommunityOeterminants of Heat Vulnerability."Environmental Health Perspectives. 117,1730-1736.

B Urbanist> May !June 2011

PUBLIC SAFETY AND HEALTHIncreases in extreme heat, particularly during

heat waves, could kill more people than all otherclimate change impacts combined.s Warmerdays also worsen air quality, create "urban heatislands" and can increase people's risk to vector­borne and infectious diseases such as West Nilevirus and Lyme disease. Public safety and healthcould also be compromised by storm-relatedflooding in residential areas and by wildfire,both because of its direct threat and because itsignificantly impairs regional air quality,

Heat. While the Bay Area may not experiencethe same severity or frequency of extreme heatdays as other parts of southern and centralCalifornia, by mid-century we may see three tofour times as many extreme heat days as we dotoday and six to eight times as many by 2100.9 InSan Francisco, from a 20th-century average of12days per year exceeding 81 degrees Fahrenheit,we could have 70 to 94 days exceeding thistemperature by 2070 to 2099,

The paradox ofhot weather in milderclimates, such as along the California coast,is that people are much less prepared for andacclimated to it. In California's 2006 heatwave, rates of emergency department visitationand hospitalization were far greater in coastalcounties, including San Francisco, than the stateaverage, although some parts of the state werehotter and suffered more heat-related deaths. lO

Only about 11 percent ofhousing units in theSan Francisco metropolitan area have access toair conditioning. San Francisco and Alamedacounties contain eight of the 13 census tractsmost vulnerable to heat in the entire UnitedStates.u

Urbanized areas around the Bay may beespecially vulnerable to the phenomenon knownas "urban heat islands," where heavily urbanizedareas become significantly warmer than nearbyareas because ofheat-retaining materials likeconcrete and asphalt,

Heat-related illness and death are consideredentirely preventable if appropriate strategiesare taken by residents, planners and healthproviders.

Air quality. Major public health issues relatedto potential air quality changes from climatechange in the Bay Area include increasedexposure to air pollutants including ground-levelozone (smog), particulate matter, pollens andmolds. These pollutants can aggravate asthmaand respiratory diseases, and cause prcmaturcdeath in susceptible groups.

Continued monitoring and evaluation of changesin precipitation, winds, and offshore and inlandconditions will be necessary to create a regionalmodel of climate change impacts on air quality,and to make better predictions of climate changeimpacts on the many microclimates within theregion.

Highly vulnerable populations. The burdensof higher temperatures and heat waves will falldisproportionately on the poor, the elderly andyoung children. People with pre-existing healthconditions such as asthma, respiratory disease,allergies, diabetes or heart conditions are alsomore susceptible. Lower-income neighborhoodsare more vulnerable to urban heat-island effectsbecause they generally have less tree coverageand more impervious ground and roof surfaces.People who live alone are especially vulnerable toheat waves and heat-related illness.

SPUR's recommendations forpublic safety and health

I. Identify populations that are vulnerableto specific climate change threats, anddevelop countywide climate-preparednessplans. County health agencies should work withcity planning, housing and emergency-servicesdepartments to identify geographic areas andpopulations vulnerable to specific climatechange threats, such as sea level rise, flooding,fire and urban heat islands. Factors that shouldbe part of the analysis include housing quality,transportation access, age, poverty and access tohealth care.

2. Reduce urban heat-island effects throughthree principal "no regrets" strategies:expanding the urban forest, promotingwhite roofs and using light-colored pavementmaterials. City agencies responsible for urbanforestry and street trees - which could includepublic works, transportation, and recreationand park departments - should conduct a treecanopy "census" and identify opportunitiesfor better shade-tree coverage in underservedand intensely urbanized areas. Cities shouldbegin to require lighter materials or white roofsby amending existing building codes for newbuildings and major retrofits.

3. Build communications and publicwarning systems for extreme events suchas heat, flooding and poor air quality. TheBay Area Air Quality Management District(BAAQMD) should integrate a heat warningfheat watch system into its "Spare the Air"

program. City emergency-services departmentsshould incorporate heat warnings and otherclimate change emergency information intopublic warning systems, such as AlertSF in SanFrancisco.

4. Develop robust and comprehensive"heat response plans." Emergency-servicesdepartments, in consultation with countyhealth agencies, should ensure these plansinclude: establishment of cooling centers;targeted outreach to facilities serving vulnerablepopulations such as the elderly and youngchildren; community engagement and education;and transportation.

5. Conduct health surveillance and monitorenvironmental conditions for signs ofincreasing health risks. The BAAQMD shouldreview regional air-monitoring information todetect any new air quality conditions, and countyhealth agencies should watch for new patterns indisease or epidemics, such as Lyme disease.

6. Prepare air quality control measuresto stabilize regional air quality ifconditionsdeteriorate. The BAAQMD should develop andprioritize air quality mitigation measures thatcan be deployed if significant deterioration inregional air quality occurs in the future.

TRANSPORTATIONClimate change will affect transportation

systems at all levels including planning, design,construction, operation and maintenance.Potential economic impacts of climate change ontransportation include: lost worker productivityfrom delays; impeded and more expensivemovement of goods through ports, airports andrail systems; and increased costs of repairs andmaintenance of transportation systems. Climatechange could also impair the safety of travel.

Ground transportation. The Bay Area containsabout half of the roads at risk of inundation inthe State of California and 60 percent of the

More than 105 miles ofthe Bay Area's regional railnetwork are vulnerable toprojected end-of-century sealevel rise.

Urbanist> May / June 2011 9

11 Pacific Institute, May 2009.

IJ SPUR has conducted extensive work toevaluate what we need to ensure transportationviability in the event at amajor earthquake;some ot those recommendations may beconsulted in the event that major corridor travelis disrupted by flooding, fire, landslides, or otherextreme weather events. See "Transportationand Rebuilding," spur.org/publications/librarylreport/resilient _ city _ parl3

10 Urbanist> May !June 2011

state's railroads at risk of a 100-year flood event.12

Approximately 99 miles of the major roads andhighways in the Bay Area are vulnerable toinundation and flooding from a 16-inch rise inBay water levels, and 186 miles of major roadsand highways are vulnerable to a 55-inch rise.Major roads that could be affected include 1-880,U.S. 101, Highway 37,1-680 and Highway 12.Pavement rutting and deterioration may occurwith temperature change, resulting in a greaterneed for road maintenance. Erosion from heavystorm activity can undermine existing roads andsupport structures, and eventually increase thecost of maintenance. 1-80 along the Berkeleyand Albany shoreline is especially vulnerable toerosion from increased storm activity.

The Bay Area regional rail network is madeup of more than 600 miles of track, ofwhich105 miles are vulnerable to a 55-inch rise in sealevels. Passenger rail serves the major job centersin the region such as San Francisco, Oaklandand San Jose, and the ports in the regionrely heavily on the freight rail. The increasein frequency, intensity or duration ofwarmweather can increase track buckling on railways,which increases repair and maintenance costs,decreases lifetime expectancy of infrastructureand causes delays in movement of goods andpeople.

Airports. San Francisco International Airportand Oakland International Airport could besignificantly affected by sea level rise becauseof their low elevation. Ninety-three percentof the land they are built on is vulnerable tostorm-surge inundation with a 55-inch sealevel rise. The runways at SFO were built onlandfill but will be protected at least through themiddle of the 21st century by a partial seawalland new planned levees. Beyond mid-century,construction oflevees around the runways ornew raised runway elevations may be required.

Ports. The five major ports in the Bay Area ­Oakland, Richmond, San Francisco, RedwoodCity and Benicia - occupy four square miles ofland and handle more than 25 million metrictons of cargo a year. Twenty percent oflandwithin the port areas is vulnerable to a 55-inchsea level rise.

SPUR's recommendations fortransportation

1. Assess regional transportation-systemvulnerabilities to climate impacts. TheMetropolitan Transportation Commission(MTC) should begin to include in its 25-year

Regional Transportation Plans (updatedevery four years) a vulnerability assessmentof the region's transportation systems andinfrastructure.

2. Design new transportation projects tobe resilient to end-of-century sea level rise.Caltrans, the MTC and county congestion­management agencies should require sealevel rise to be factored into the design of alltransportation projects and major repairs inareas at risk of estimated future 100-year floodelevations, currently about 55 inches abovetoday's sea levels.

3. Make decisions about whattransportation infrastructure to protect,move, retrofit or abandon according to a clearframework ofpriorities for capital resources.The MTC and other funders' highest prioritiesfor capital improvements, including retrofitsto accommodate sea level rise, should be thosevulnerable assets that are of significant regionaleconomic value, are irreplaceable, cannot berelocated and would not otherwise be protected.

4. Create emergency transportationalternatives for corridors that may sufferfrom extreme events or prolonged closures.13

During extreme events, people may use differentmodes of transportation than usual. The MTCand county congestion-management agenciesshould identify emergency measures that can betaken to maintain mobility and safety both forshort-term impacts, such as extreme weather,and in the event oflonger-term closures that maybe needed due to damage or repairs.

ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITYThe San Francisco Bay region is one ofNorth

America's biodiversity hot spots, rich with avariety of habitats, a unique geology and theBay itself - the second largest estuary in thecountry. The Bay estuary supports more than500 wildlife species and is a key stopping pointand overwintering grounds for millions ofbirdsalong the Pacific Flyway. More than half ofNorthAmerican avian species and nearly one thirdof California's plant species are found in thelands of the Golden Gate National RecreationArea alone. But increased temperatures fromclimate change in the Bay Area could cause aloss of species abundance and diversity. Fragile,vital wetlands in the Bay and its tributaries arethreatened by sea level rise.

Terrestrial ecosystems. Many landscape areaswithin the Bay region have temperature rangesthat are larger than the projected temperature

increases from climate change. This may allowmany species throughout the Bay Area totolerate or adapt to higher temperatures. TheBay's proximity to the ocean and the continuedpresence offog along the coast will likely helpto mitigate temperature increases, although theimpacts to fog from climate change are not wellunderstood.

Species with limited distribution, restrictedrange, inability to relocate or dependence on afinite physical setting, such as soil type, for theirlife cycle needs are most vulnerable to climatechanges. Tree death rates have already morethan doubled over the last few decades in old­growth forests of the western United States, andthe most probable cause is warmer temperaturesand longer summer drought periods. l1 InCalifornia, the combination of increasedtemperature, changing precipitation patternsand declining soil moisture is likely to shift

suitable ranges for many species to the north andto higher elevations.

High-emission scenarios offuture climatechange indicate overall decreases in thenative biodiversity of California. Combined,the climate-driven shifts in species range,distribution and abundance could lead to a 20 to40 percent loss of native species in California.15

Estuarine ecosystems. In addition to providinghabitat for shorebirds and other plant andanimal species, wetlands provide criticalflood protection by storing surface waterand dissipating wave energy, simultaneouslypreventing shoreline erosion. Wetlands improvewater quality by filtering nutrients, pollutantsand particulates, and incorporating theseelements in biomass or biochemical reactions.Finally, tidal wetlands sequester carbon in plantsand soils, thus reducing carbon dioxide in theatmosphere and mitigating climate change.

"Martin, G., Taking the Heat, Bay Nature,January - March, 2009.

14 Mantgem, Phillip, et ai, January 2009.Widespread increase of tree mortality rates inthe western United States, Science, Vol. 323 no.5913 pp. 521-524.

Tidal wetlands, such as thesein the South Bay, are bothvulnerable to sea level riseand a potential solution forit. If wetlands have the spaceto adapt to sea level rise,they provide flood protection,improve water quality andsequester carbon dioxide- helping to stop globalwarming.

Urbanist> May I June 2011 11

PROJECTED TEMPERATURE RISE BY 2100

Source: Luers, Cayan et aI., in Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California, a report from the California ClimateCommission and the Calfornia Environmental Protection Agency, 2006. c1imatechange.ca.gov.

Higher emissions

Medium-high emissions

Lower emissions

SCENARIOS

2070-2099

There are 417 square miles of Bay and coastalwetlands in the nine-county Bay Area today, andthere are only about 57 square miles of dry landarea that are viable - i.e., not developed withbuildings, infrastructure or agriculture - forwetlands to migrate toP The California CoastalCommission, the Coastal Conservancy, the SanFrancisco Bay Conservation and DevelopmentCommission (BCDC) and others shouldevaluate the vulnerability of existing areas oftidal wetlands in the Bay and on the coast, andshould map their natural landward migratorypaths under expected amounts of sea level rise.Wherever pathways are identified into areasthat are vacant or underdeveloped and have thepotential for substantial wetland restoration, thepathways should not be converted to land usesthat would impede migration.

2. Prioritize land protection, conservationand restoration efforts in areas withsignificant topographical relief, such as inthe coastal range. Areas that possess a rangeof elevations within a small geographic areagenerally have more biodiversity to begin with.Protecting gradients in the landscape will allowspecies to migrate or seek refuge from hotter,drier conditions.

3. Prioritize protection ofhabitat linkagesconnecting large natural areas in the greater

2035·20642005-2034

RANGE IN PROJECTED TEMPERATURE RISE OVER 30-YEAR PERIODS

12"

10

I-W 8IZwcr:I

it 6~VlWWcr:l:J 4w0

SPUR's recommendations forecosystems and biodiversity

1. Protect viable migratory paths forwetlands. Wetland species will need to graduallymove landward as lower areas are inundated.Protecting viable migratory pathways is essentialto the survivability of these at-risk ecosystems,which provide nUllleruu~ ~ut:iuet:unumit:benefits.

Tidal marshes are the natural form of mostof the Bay shoreline, but their realm has beenreduced to about 8 percent oftheir historicextent due to filling, armoring and reclamation.16

Still, that 8 percent accounts for more than 90percent of California's remaining tidal wetlands.

The challenge to the Bay's wetlands fromsea level rise is two-fold: (1) without room forwetlands to migrate landward with sea levelrise, existing wetlands will become submerged,and (2) if there is not enough sediment availablein the Bay, tidal wetlands will not be able tomaintain vertical elevation as sea level rises.Modeling work evaluating the loss of tidalwetlands as a result of sea level rise indicatesthat San Francisco Bay could lose a significantportion of intertidal and tidal wetland areasthat provide food and shelter for a myriad ofshorebirds.

Depending on how muchwe control greenhousegas emissions, averagetemperatures in California willbe 4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheithigher by 2100 than they aretoday.

16 Goals Project. 1999. Baylands EcosystemHabitat Goals. Areport of habitatrecommendations prepared by the SanFrancisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem GoalsProject. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.San Francisco, Calif./S.F. Bay Regional WaterQuality Control Board, Oakland, Calif, sfei.org/nodel2123.

II SPUR analysis ot data in the Pacific Institutereport, 2009, page 67-69.

12 Urbanist> May / June 2011

Bay Area. Identification and protection ofwildlife corridors will allow plants and wildlifeto migrate northward to higher elevations ortoward the coast as temperatures increase.

4. Update the Baylands Habitat GoalsProject to include sea level rise projections.The Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Projectis a multiagency effort to identify what kindsand amounts ofwetland habitats around the Bayshould be restored to sustain diverse wildlife.Established in 1999, the goals did not account forfuture changes in the rate of sea level rise.

5. Develop a regional sediment­management strategy that could helpwetlands adapt to sea level rise. Sedimentsupply is necessary for wetlands to "keep up"with sea level rise, but it is threatened by dikesand dams upstream in the Bay's watershed.

ENERGYCalifornia's energy system is vulnerable to

climate change in four principal ways:• warmer temperatures and severe storms

could reduce electric-grid reliaLiliLy;

• energy demand, particularly for cooling,may dramatically increase;

• changing precipitation patterns could affecthydroelectricity supplies;

• sea level rise and increased storm surgescould potentially affect energy infrastructure.

Electric-grid reliability. While the BayArea may not experience the same severity orfrequency of major heat waves as other areasin California, all parts of the state are linkedthrough the electric grid. Ifother regions endurea severe heat wave with extreme increases inelectricity demand for cooling, the Bay Area'selectric reliability may be more vulnerable.Warmer nights could also lead to the breakdownofkey electrical equipment that relies on coolerevening temperatures to operate efficiently.Higher temperatures also decrease the efficiencyoffossil fuel-burning power plants, sometypes of renewable power plants such as solarphotovoltaic, and energy transmission lines,thus requiring either increased productionor improvements in the efficiency ofpower

Warmer temperatures over alarge area of California couldreduce electric-grid reliabilityby causing equipment to failand the efficiency of somepower plants to decrease.

Urbanist> May !June 20ll 13

14 Urbanist> May I June 20tl

generation and transmission.Currently many Bay Area communities suffer

power outages during extreme winter weatherevents, through either downed power lines orflooded infrastructure. This could increase ifextreme weather events increase in frequency ormagnitude under climate change.

Increases in energy demand. As temperaturesin California are expected to increase more insummer than in winter, buildings in general willexhibit higher demand for summertime cooling.This demand for cooling will rise at the sametime of day as higher temperatures threatenimportant electrical infrastructure, straininglocal and statewide electric grids. As energydemand increases, and electric grids becomemore vulnerable, local on-demand "peaker"power plants and backup generators may beswitched on, increasing both greenhouse-gasemissions and localized air pollution.

Hydroelectricity. Climate scientists predictthat climate change will result in significantreductions in snowpack in the Sierra NevadaMountains. This impact could, in turn, affectutilities' hydroelectric generation. This isespecially important to utilities in the Bay Areasuch as PG&E, the San Francisco Public UtilitiesCommission (SFPUC), Alameda MunicipalPower and City of Palo Alto Utilities, which eachobtain at least 10 percent of their electricity fromhydroelectricity.

In the long term, or in the case of severalsuccessive dry years that create droughtconditions, reservoir levels can be reducedto levels lower than those required forhydroelectric power generation. The recentdrought in California illustrates the possiblenegative consequences of climate change onhydroelectricity. For example, from 2006 (awetter than average year) to 2007 (a drier thanaverage year), PG&E's hydroelectric generationdropped from 22 to 13 percent of its deliverymix. If Bay Area utilities' future hydroelectricgeneration is reduced, that supply might begenerated instead by natural gas-fired powerplants, which would increase greenhouse-gasemissions and other pollutants.

Sea level rise and energy infrastructure.Projected sea level rise along California's coastmay result in higher flooding potential of coastalenergy infrastructure, such as natural gaspipelines and compressor stations, electricalsubstations, electric transmission lines andlJuwer plants.

SPUR's recommendations forenergy

1. Conduct a vulnerability assessmentofenergy-system assets at risk ofclimateimpacts. All energy utilities should conductvulnerability assessments of energy-systemassets at risk of climate impacts, and overtime should improve the reliability of energyinfrastructure and equipment that is identifiedas most likely to fail during extreme events, inbalance with cost, safety and other factors.

2. Develop plans to close the electricity­supply gap under conditions wherehydroelectric resources are diminished ornonexistent. PG&E, the SFPUC and otherutilities that rely on hydroelectricity shoulddevelop plans for coping with diminishedresources. The plans should identify ways tomake up the difference through energy efficiencyand demand response first, renewable resourcesand distributed generation second, and cleanand efficient fossil fuel generation third, inkeeping with the California Energy Action Plan"loading order."

3. Evaluate existing energy-efficiencyand demand-response programs for theireffectiveness at shaving peak electricitydemand in more frequent and prolongedhot weather. PG&E and local governmentenergy programs funded by ratepayers areboth responsible for executing and ensuringthe effectiveness of these programs. Theseprograms must consider longer and morefrequent hot-weather periods. Two promisingstrategies for improving demand response andload management in extreme weather are smartmeters and a smart grid.

4. Replace or retrofit the building stockover time with resource-efficient, climate­adaptive buildings. Codes covering newbuildings and major retrofits should encouragedesigns that make buildings more resilientto energy-supply interruptions and droughts,employing technologies such as passive heatingand cooling, daylighting, graywater reuse, waterrecycling, distributed generation and more.

WATER MANAGEMENTFor more than a century, water development

and management has been one of the mostenduring and complex policy issues in the West.Monumental investments in infrastructure builtto move water around California - particularlyfrom north to south and east to west - haveenabled the state's agriculture sector to grow

Urbanist> May !June 2011 15

Source: Cayan et aI., 2006, in California Climate Adaptation Strategy, 2009, p. 80.

By the end of this century,as little as 20 percent of theSierra snowpack may existunder hotter, drier conditionscaused by climate change.

45

(2070-2099) Scenario 2:Medium warming range20% remaining

3015

====~---April 1 snow water equivalent

Water utilities serving the Bay Area, includingthe East Bay Municipal Utility District and theSan Francisco Public Utilities Commission,have undertaken water supply modeling tounderstand shifts in the quantity and timingof runoff that may occur due to climatechange. EBMUD and the SFPUC have foundthat because of the high altitude and capacityof their storage reservoirs, along with otherfactors, climate change may not significantlyaffect water deliveries through about 2020 to2030. San Francisco's Hetch Hetchy watershedis somewhat protected by its high elevation,where the magnitude of predicted changes insnowpack and melt through 2030 is within therange of existing runoff patterns. However, inprojecting these and future changes, the utilitiesare in the process of factoring in net changes inprecipitation, the impact ofwhich may be muchmore significant by mid-century and beyond.While Bay Area water customers are lucky tohave water supplies not immediately threatenedby climate change, this security is relative andmay be short-tprm.

(2070-2099) Scenario 1:Lower warming range40% remaining

-0 in.

(1961-1990)Historical average

and cities to exist in Southern California andthe Bay Area. Even in the absence of climatechange, demands on limited water resources byevery sector have caused environmental damageand are the subject of ongoing conflict, problemsthat will only grow as the state's populationincreases by more than 50 percent by mid­century. Climate change will not only exacerbatethe challenge of meeting demand, but it directlythreatens the viability of water infrastructurethrough extreme events and sea level rise.

Climate change adaptation planning is part ofthe job that regional water utilities do already.They are required to file five-year urban watermanagement plans, detailing how they willensure that supply meets projected demand.Recent state legislation (from 2008) requireseven greater water conservation efforts: a 20percent reduction in per capita urban water useby 2020. In part, this helps the state deal withthe existing challenge ofwater scarcity, but italso builds resilience for loss in snowpack, long­term drought and other water-cycle changes thatwill be exacerbated by climate change.

PROJECTED DECREASES IN CALIFORNIA'S APRIL SNOWPACK

16 Urbanist> May !June 2011

TABLE 1: THE COSTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION IN THE BAY AREA

Source: Heberger, M. et al. of the Pacific Institute, "The Impacts of Sea-level Rise on theCalifornia Coast," May 2009, www.pacinsl.org/reports/sea _ level _ rise/reporl.pdf

SEA LEVEL RISESome aspects of climate change adaptation

planning are going to be easier to managethan others. In part, this is because certaininstitutions with climate vulnerabilities, such aswater agencies and public health departments,are well positioned to monitor and adapt to newthreats - and these activities are part of the jobthey do already. In the Bay Area, sea level riseis by far the most difficult climate adaptationchallenge we will face. There is no precedentfor governing it, yet it stands to dramaticallytransform the region's relationship with its mostdefining geographic feature.

Design strategies for sea level rise. Thereare many planning and design strategies thatcould be used to mitigate sea level rise along theshoreline, including coastal armoring, elevateddevelopment and wetlands restoration. (SPURhas written an extensive analysis of strategiesfor the Bay Area; see our report "Strategiesfor managing sea level rise."'B) Some of thesestrategies could be deployed more regionally,while some could be permitted locally as away to increase resilience in certain shorelineareas. Many other recent reports, especiallyBCDC's "Living with a Rising Bay" and thePacific Institute's report on the vulnerability ofthe California coastline, have included detailedinformation on coastal and Bay vulnerabilities,possible protection strategies, the range andmodels used to determine expected sea level riseand more.

Financing and governance. In the Bay Area,two special-purpose government agencies havejurisdiction over the water that surroundsus: the San Francisco Bay Conservation andDevelopment Commission and the CaliforniaCoastal Commission. These agencies haveseverely limited authority to implement strategicdecisions about adapting to sea level rise. Forexample, BCDC's shoreline jurisdiction toregulate development only extends to 100 feetupland from the Bay. In many places, 100 feetinland is well within the elevation that will beflooded by a sea level rise of 55 inches.

Along the ocean coastline, the CaliforniaCoastal Commission shares responsibility fordeveloping coastal plans with 60 cities and 15counties. Local coastal plans (LCPs) set groundrules for the location and type ofland uses thatcan take place in the coastal zone, as describedby law. About 90 percent of the state's coastalzone falls into an LCP. However, most of these

SPUR's recommendations for watermanagement

1. Develop water-supply scenarios for mid­century and beyond that include assumptionsabout changes (especially decreases) inprecipitation amounts and timing. Bay Areawater-supply agencies should plan for long-termclimate change through the middle and end ofthe 21st century.

2. Evaluate alternative water-supplyopportunities and demand-managementstrategies such as water conservation, waterrecycling and desalination, and prioritizeinvestment in these strategies according tocost, reliability and environmental benefits.Bay Area water-supply agencies should evaluateand pursue strategies to increase local anddrought-proof supplies in their portfolios.

3. Expand investments in "greeninfrastructure" or low-impact development.Wastewater agencies, sometimes in collaborationwith water-supply agencies, should model arange of future storm intensities and prioritizeinvestments to attenuate flood peak flows,increase groundwater recharge and reduce urbanheat islands. Areas that are at high risk of urbanstorm-water flooding, or are contributory to suchareas, should be targeted first.

4. Evaluate the vulnerability ofwastewatercollection and treatment systems to severestorms, sea level rise and storm surge. Wherepossible, wastewater agencies should retrofitocean and Bay outfalls with backflow preventionas an interim measure. Agencies may need tocreate new design standards for infrastructurethat accommodate larger storm sizes and morefrequent storm surges.

TYPE OF PROTECTION RANGE OF COSTS (IN YEAR 2000 MAINTENANCEDOLLARS), FROM BAY AREA PROJECTS COSTS

New levee $725-$2,228 per linear foot 10% annually

Raised/upgraded levee $223-$1,085 per linear foot 10% annually

New seawall $2,646-$6,173 per linear foot 1-4% annually

Restored tidal marsh $5,000-$200,000 per acre unknown

~

The costs of flood protectionvary by strategy. Generally,seawalls and levees bringadditional costs, such asincreasing erosion andremoving habitat, whilewetlands bring numerousadditional benefits, includingenhancing habitat andsequestering carbon.

" See spur.org/publications/library/reportlsealevel rise _ 110109

PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE BY 2100

Source: State of California Sea-Level Rise Interim Guidance Document, October 2010. slc.ca.gov/Sea _ Level_ Rise/index.html

Urbanist> May !June 2011 17

Sea level rise is increasingat such a rapid rate thatwe are likely to experiencea baseline increase of 55inches by 2100, though itcould be worse if large land­based ice sheets, such as inAntarctica and Greenland,melt faster than we expect.

SCENARIOS

Higher emissions

Medium·high emissions

Lower emissions

21002050

Range of uncertainty -

maps should be prepared under the direction of acoastal engineer and updated every five years.

2. Revise the Safety Element withinGeneral Plans to include policies relating toclimate change hazards, including sea levelrise. Safety Elements of city and county GeneralPlans describe seismic, flooding, fire and otherhazards, and planned approaches to reducingtheir potential damage. Local governmentsshould update their Safety Elements to includea new section on climate change impacts,using information revealed in shoreline riskassessments, coastal inundation maps and othersources.

3. Do not permit new development inareas identified by local risk assessment andinundation maps as vulnerable to projectedend-of-century sea level rise, unless certaincriteria are met. BCDC, planning departments,redevelopment agencies and other local agencieswithin their areas ofjurisdiction should onlypermit new development in vulnerable areaswhen it is either small, a park or restorationproject, critical infrastructure, an infill project,within a Priority Development Area or when itcan demonstrate the protection of public safety

70 in.

60000N

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:2:--' 10«a:>

9~ 0

1900 1950 2000

plans were developed in the 1980s, before sealevel rise became a well-known concern, andthere is no legal requirement for them to beupdated.

Local governments do all of the planning andmost of the permitting in areas that are at riskfrom sea level rise, erosion and storm surge,but they need resources or decision tools fordetermining what to protect and where. SPUR'srecommendations suggest a path forward forhow regional agencies and local governments canbegin the process of real planning for sea levelrise.

SPUR's recommendations for sealevel rise planning

1. Undertake a shoreline risk assessmentand prepare coastal inundation maps.Planning departments, in consultation withBCDC, the Coastal Commission and the FederalEmergency Management Agency (FEMA),should prepare maps based on the estimated100-year flood elevations that take into accountthe best available scientific estimates offuturesea level rise (currently about 55 inches) andcurrent or planned flood protection. Inundation

Planning for sea level rise on the ocean coastlinePlanning for sea level rise means something very different on the oceancoast than on the shoreline of San Francisco Bay. These areas differ inseveral key respects, including physical conditions and hazards,settlement patterns, and regulatory frameworks.

Physically, the ocean coast is much more rugged, and the hazardsassociated with sea level rise are different. Where the Bay shoreline'sshallow edges are most vulnerable to inundation, the predominanthazard on the ocean coast is erosion. Waves driven by storm surgesslam into beaches, bluffs and man-made structures with ferociousenergy, and higher sea levels translate into higher wave runup,overtopping of defenses (like seawalls and levees) and flooding in low­lying areas. The frequency and intensity of storm surges may increasewith climate change, but these impacts are even harder to predict thansea level trends. Finally, whereas in calm bay waters sea level risetends to fill the existing contours passively, the ocean coast is shapeddynamically, as wave action both erodes and builds up sand andsediment.

The ocean coastline is also more sparsely settled than the Bayshoreline, especially in Marin and San Mateo counties. San Francisco,of course, has fairly dense residential areas that were built right oversand dunes to the very edge of the beach, along with an importantcomplex of wastewater infrastructure that is increasingly threatened byerosion. Through the Ocean Beach Master Plan (spur.orgloceanbeach),SPU R is working to evaluate sea level management strategies for anintensely developed stretch of ocean coast.

under projected end-of-century sea levels.4. Develop sea level rise flood-protection

plans. Existing development generally shouldbe protected from flooding as long as thecosts ofpublicly financed protection do notsignificantly exceed the costs of managed retreatto invulnerable areas through such tools asvoluntary buyouts, purchasing developmentrights or rolling easements.

5. Formulate a cross-agency regional sealevel rise adaptation strategy to prioritizeflood-protection resources, and include itin the Senate Bill 375-required SustainableCommunities Strategy. The MTC and ABAG, incollaboration with the Joint Policy Committee,BCDC, other regional, state and federal agencies,and local governments, should identify financialand engineering strategies to protect regionallysignificant infrastructure, Priority DevelopmentAreas and other infilllocations, and to protectthe ecological health of the Bay.

6. Require that public access to the Bay beviable for the long term. BCDC should requirethat public Bay access that is a condition of new

1B Urbanist> May /June 2011

development be constructed to remain viableunder future sea level rise, such as throughelevated pathways.

7. Update local coastal plans every fiveyears. The California Legislature shouldamend the Coastal Act to require updates toLocal Coastal Plans every five years, and localgovernments should specifically denote climatechange hazards of sea level rise, erosion andwildfire.

8. Include projected sea level rise scenariosin National Flood Insurance Program ratemaps to help participating communitiesunderstand future risks ofdeveloping inlow-elevation coastal areas. The NationalFlood Insurance Program, within FEMA, mapsflood-hazard areas and offers flood insuranceto property owners within communities thatadopt flood-protective building codes and othermeasures. While attempting to reduce risk, thispractice can also increase it by encouragingbuilding in areas that will only become morevulnerable in the future. The NFIP should alsomake federal flood insurance availability andpricing more actuarially and risk-based to reflectrepetitive losses in the most hazardous areas aswell as the future risk posed by sea level rise.FEMA should also include projected sea levelrise scenarios in its flood hazard maps.

CONCLUSIONClimate change is one of the greatest

challenges the world has ever faced. At once,we need to begin reducing greenhouse-gasemissions to stave off its worst effects. Butwe also need a plan to respond, because someclimate change will occur regardless, as theresult ofhistoric and ongoing emissions.

Climate change adaptation will need to bedealt with at all levels ofgovernment. Yet it is atthe local and regional levels where vulnerabilitycan best be understood and addressed. In theBay Area, we are lucky to have institutions thatare increasingly aware of these vulnerabilitiesand are beginning to plan ahead. But thereis much more we need to do within specificareas of planning and governance to considerlong-term impacts and, as much as possible,prevent foreseeable damage, loss and misery.Local government agencies in particular needa starting place. This SPUR report looks acrossplanning areas to provide just that.•

Read our complete report atspur.org/adaptation

Mission CreekPark Pavilion

spur.org/discover

ThursdayJune 16, 20116 -10 PM

A SPUR benefit

Dine + Discover is an opportunity for us to celebrate the city we loveand support SPUR as one of the city's most valuable organizations.

This year we bring the event to Mission Bay, home of UCSF,the Giants, Salesforce and the city's emerging biotech cluster.The Mission Creek Park Pavilion will provide a beautiful backdrop aswe dine on cuisine from A <;p.lp.c:t group of locally celebrated chefs.

More information available at 415-644-4288 or events@spur.org

SPONSORED TICKETS AVAILABLE NOW!

Individual tickets $250on sale May 2

spur.org/discover

Save the Date spur.org/memberparty

The SPUR Member Party is where all spheres of SPUR membershipmeet, mingle and celebrate city life. The SPUR Urban Centertransforms into three themed floors, extending onto neighboringAnnie Alley for a street party filled with music and festive libations.This event is not to be missed - last year it drew over 1,500 peoplel

More information available at 415-644-4288 or events@spur.org

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE!

Tickets start at $20 (sliding scale/members only)on sale May 30

Urbanist> May !June 2011 19

URBANFIELD NOTES

Five parking garages: anurbanist's reluctant crush

An additive archive of cultural landscapes and observations Caseworker: Benjamin Grantcompiled by SPUR members and friends. Send your ideasto Urban Field Notes editor Ruth Keffer at editor@spur.org.

CASESTUDY #38

Urban designers, as a rule, are not big fansof the automobile. I think it's fair to say thatrage at the depredations of cars and theiraccessories ranks up there with love forvolumetric enclosure and street trees amongthe discipline's articles of faith.

But of course, violating articles of faith isone of life's great pleasures. To that end, hereare some of my favorite parking garages.

In the 1950s, accommodating cars in thecity was considered a pressing challenge - ameans of saving the city from suburbaniza­tion. That idea - analogous in its way to thepressing challenge of reclaiming the city fromcars today - drew some of the best andbrightest designers and engineers, who builtgarages that were optimistic, ambitious andformally bold, if not exactly friendly. Modern­ist garages have no interest in hiding away orapologizing: they are sculptural monumentsto the futu re.

Later garages were guilty affairs, as urbandesigners wisely encouraged them to "blendin" or "minimize their impacts" on surround­ing urban fabrics. Garages became anecessary evil, far superior to surface parkingin terms of both urban form and efficiency,and pricing could be managed to serveplanning goals: Shopping? Okay, three hoursis a bargain. Commuting? This may sting alittle....

More recently, the pendulum has swungback toward more formal ambition, but (onehopes) with the lessons of context and humanscale still internalized. If we're going to buildhousing for cars, let's first do no harm. Then,strive to make things of beauty.

Benjamin Grant is an urban designer, writer and curator,and SPUR's public realm and urban design programmanager. He teaches urban design at San Jose StateUniversity and is the co-founder of city Ispace. He iscurrently leading SPUR's development of amulti-agencymaster plan for Ocean Beach.

20 Urbanist> May / June 2011

City Center Garage at O'Farrell and Mason. A MACHINE FOR PARKING IN,designed by George Applegarth in 1954, set the standard for urban parking and was widelypraised.

Polk and Bush.This 1990swallflower byGordon Chong isamong the bestof the unobtrusiveschool, thoughdesign snobs willscoff at its mimicryof surroundingbuildings. It is solidlybuilt and gets theurbanism right: PolkStreet retail is carriedright through theground floor withan assist from thetopography. Vehicleaccess is discreetlytllr.ked away.

'---------------------------------------'«'

Mission BayBlock 27. One of

the most exciting

fa<;ades on any

local building in

recent decades

belongs to this

2009 garage by

WRNS Architects.

A return to

the sculptural

ambitions of the

20th century, with

a modicum of

sensitivity to the

area's emerging

fabric. Not

everything works,

but the signature

move is stunning.

Oakland's Alcopark (Alameda County ParkingGarage). This garage is nine circular levels of midcentury

bombast (also probably by Applegarth) near the county

courthouse, crowned (of course) by a heliport l .".,\fJ)", '" "

Fourth and San Fernando streets in downtown San Jose. This

early 21st century garage really nails the urbanism, but in a slightly less

hokey architectural idiom. Generous ground-floor retail and well-placed

pedestrian access through glass elevators and sculptural stairs reflect a lot

of attention to urban design.

Urbanist> May !June 2011 21

URBAN DRIFTcity newsfrom aroundthe globe

VACANT NEW CONSTRUCTIONTHREATENS CHINESEECONOMYFrom a Western perspective,economic growth in China oftenlooks like a miracle without end.On an almost daily basis, mediasources report one infrastructuralfeat after another - along withnews of the country's ever­increasing GOP. But the dark sideof this boom is now coming tolight as it becomes evident thatChina is sitting on a real estatebubble that will dwarf anythingthe world has seen to date.The New South China Mall inDongguan, open since 2005,sits vacant save for a singletoy shop that's lucky to makeone sale a day. By area, it's thelargest mall in the world, but ithas never been able to attracttenants. Because of the Chinesegovernment's focus on economicgrowth, construction continueson projects for which there is noneed. An estimated 64 millionnew apartments sit emptybecause ordinary Chinese peoplecan't afford them. Those beingshut out are growing increasinglydissatisfied, and it's only a matterof time before this real estatebubble bursts."China's ghost cities and the biggest property bubble ofall time," Sarah Goodyear, Grisl.org, 3/31/20ll

INDIAN POPULATION HITS 1.2BILLIONIndia's latest census shows aslowing in population growth, butthe country is still set to overtakeChina as the world's largest by2030. Two of India's states, UttarPradesh and Maharashtra, havea combined population greaterthan that of the United States,

22 Urbanist> May / June 20ll

and population growth over thepast decade matched the entirepopulation of Brazil. This growthslowed significantly to 17.6percent in the past decade, andis expected to slow more as thecountry continues to urbanize.One major challenge to India'sfuture is a gender disparity.With societal preference forboys leading to abortion andother illegal gender-selectionmethods, the country currentlyhas 623 million males to 586million females. Women are alsodiscriminated against, particularlyin rural areas. A bright spot inthe census showed that literacyincreased by a full 10 percentover the past decade."India's population grows to 1.2 billion," Mark Magnier,The Los Angeles Times, 4/1/2011

RADIATION HAZARDSHAMPER DAMAGEEVALUATION IN JAPANThe massive 9.0 earthquake andensuing tsunami that devastatedJapan in March caused deathand destruction over a largearea surrounding Sendai,approximately 140 miles northof Tokyo. The disaster destroyedcoastal railroads, submergedthe airport in Sendai and cut offroads throughout the region. All ofthis would have been devastationenough on its own, but in thiscase radiation from damagednuclear reactors has made thesituation even worse. Because ofradiation fears, outside expertswho typically travel to disasterzones are unable to help. StephenMahin, a structural engineeringprofessor at University ofCalifornia, Berkeley and directorof the Pacific Earthquake

Engineering Research Center,found himself unable to make thetrip to Sendai when the universitycancelled his travel insurance.With information beginningto trickle out, estimates areshowing it will take five years andhundreds of billions of dollars torebuild (not including the ongoingnuclear disaster)."Extenl of Oamage to Japan's Infrastructure StillUnclear," Henry Fountain, The New York Times,3/24/20ll

AUSTRALIAN DRIVING ON THEDECREASEAustralia is a big country withwide-open spaces and an evenhigher rate of car ownership thanthe United States. In recent years,however, funding has begun toshift to more bike, pedestrianand mass-transit improvementsinstead of road building. In theUnited States, where 80 percentof spending goes to roads and$28 billion of President Obama'sstimulus package went to

shovel-ready highway projects,mass-transit funding has becomea political issue with manyconservatives firmly againstfurther spending. In Australia,funding has continued in a varietyof ways: The federal governmentnow allows road constructiononly if it will primarily carry freightand has set aside 55 percent ofeach federal transportation dollarfor commuter rail. Australia hasalso invested in TransportationDemand Management, aninnovative concept that focuseson shifting transportationbehavior. Educational marketingprograms provide individualizedinformation and support to driversto help them choose anothermode of transportation. Researchhas shown an 18 percentreduction in miles driven overthree years in households thatreceived the marketing."Australians Have Learned to Orive Less," RandySalzman, Miller-McCune, 3/18/20ll

SPUR Board of Directors Chairs and committees Welcome to ournew members!

Co-Chairs Board Members John Madden PROGRAM Regional Planning Human Resources

COMMITTEESINOIVIOUALS Heather Nuanes

Linda Jo Fitz Ca rl Anthony Gordon Mar Larry Burnett Lydia Tan Michelle Bennett Calla Rose OstranderLee Blitch Alexa Arena Jacinta McCann Ballot Analysis Libby Seilel

IndividualTerry Bergeson Ana Sandoval

Fred Blackwell Chris Meany Steven Bernard Robin SchidlowskiBob Gamble Membership Jason Bernstein Katherine Shepherd

Co-Vice Chairs Chris Block Ezra MerseyPeter Mezey OPERATING

Bill Stotler Cathy Bowers Kristina ShihEmilio Cruz Larry Burnett Terry Micheau COMMITTEES Nate Boyd Matthew Smith

David Friedman Michaela Cassidy Mary Murphy Disaster Planning Investment Matthew Braughton Karen SommerichAudit

Madeline Chun Jeanne Myerson Jacinta McCann Ann Lazarus Derek Braun Edward M. StadumMary McCue Peter Mezey Kim Brennecke John SteuernagelBill Rosetti Michael Cohen Brad Paul Dick Morten

Alison Brick William SymeMajor DonorsV. Fei Tsen Charmaine Curtis Chris Poland Chris Poland Board Keith Brown Adam TetenbaumLinda Jo Fitz

Gia Daniller-Katz Teresa Rea Development Louisa Bukiet Rosalyn TilleryHousing

Lee BlitchAnne Halsted Bryan Cantwell Daniel Tsui

Secretary Oscar De La Torre Byron Rhett Ezra Mersey Lowell Caulder Ann-Ariel Vecchio

Tomiquia Moss Kelly Dearman Wade Rose Lydia Tan BuildingPlanned Giving Chris Collins Kimberly Walz

Shelley Doran Victor Seeto ManagementMichaela Cassidy Brian Coppedge Qing Wang

Project Review Robert Couly Louis WertzTreasurer Oz Erickson Elizabeth (Libby) Larry Burnett Silver SPUR Michele Dilrancia Bryce Wilson

Charmaine CurtisBob Gamble Manny Flores Seilel Dave Hartley Matt Dorsey Alexis Woods

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