Date post: | 23-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | donna-moore |
View: | 218 times |
Download: | 0 times |
The Use of Force
•Why do we use force?•What can you do with force?
•Answer: attain political goals
The Functions of Force
1. Defense2. Deterrence3. Compellence (coercive
diplomacy)4. Swaggering
Based in part on:
Sources
• Thomas Schelling. Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).
• Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).
• Alexander George, David Hall, William Simons. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1971).
• Robert Art. To What Ends Military Power? International SecurityVol. 4, No. 4 (Spring, 1980), pp. 3-35.
• Herman Kahn. On Escalation (NY: Penguin, 1965).
1. Defense
Defense at its most complex
Defense at its most basic
2. Deterrence
•Goal: To prevent action•Method: Threat•Aimed at influencing an
opponent’s decision making•Assumption: rationality
Rational ChoiceRational Choice
Cost Benefit Analysis
Threat: increases perception of costs
Options Costs Benefits
A ? ?
B ? ?
C ? ?
Types of Deterrence
Deterrence by Punishment
Deterrence by Denial
Communication
Europe during the Cold War
China and Taiwan
Credibility and Reputation
•Capability•Will
•A bluff?
Extended Deterrence
• Europe• Japan• S. Korea• Israel• Taiwan• Australia• New Zealand
What to Threaten?
Irrationality?
Saddam Hussein Kim Jong-un
• If deterrence fails….
3. Compellence (coercive diplomacy)
•Goal: To change opponent behavior•To stop an opponent from doing something they are doing
•To get an opponent to do something they are not doing
Basic Elements
1. Brute force won’t work2. Assumes rationality3. War is bargaining4. The power to hurt allows you
to enter the bargaining
1. Brute force won’t work
2. Assumes Rationality2. Assumes Rationality
Cost Benefit Analysis
Options Costs Benefits
A ? ?
B ? ?
C ? ?
3. War is Bargaining
4. Entering the Bargaining?
•The power to hurt•Capability• Intentions
Some Lessons1. Shadow of the Future2. It doesn’t always work3. Commitment4. Credibility5. Democracies and Compellence6. Balance of Commitment7. Non-state Actors8. Civilians9. Uncertainty and Risk10.Domestic Politics11.Irrationality?
1. Shadow of the Future
• What coerces?• The promise of future violence
2. It doesn’t always work
Compellence Success
• Cuban Missile Crisis
Compellence Failure• F-105s over Vietnam
3. Commitment
• Berlin Airlift 1948
4. Credibility
A. Continue the pain
Credibility
B. Interdependence of credibility and commitment• Reputation• Was Vietnam about Europe?• “Doctrine of Credibility”
5. Democracies
• Poor at compellence?• Vulnerable?
6. Balance of Commitment
Vietnam War
Balance of Commitment
Ukraine
7. Non-State Actors
• Two ErasA.Cold War
•Insurgencies and Marxist ethno-nationalist terrorists
•Vietcong•Palestinian Liberation Organization
(PLO)
Non-State Actors
B. Post-Cold War:• Network organizations living
off of globalization• Not state sponsored
• AQAM• Boko Haram• ISIL• Al-Shabab
8. Civilians
Dresden, Feb 1945 World Trade Center
9. Uncertainty and Risk
•Competition in risk taking•Brinkmanship•“The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance”•Escalation
• Herman Kahn
10. Domestic Politics and Compellence
The Politics of the Target
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Dilemmas
• Irratioality• Perceiving message• Can the opponent do what you
ask?
4. Swaggering
• The Great White Fleet 12/07-2/09