Date post: | 12-Jul-2015 |
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Environment |
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From risk-based model to pro-active and adaptive management:
‘The Birmingham Project’
Claudia Carter (Birmingham City University)
Nick Grayson (Birmingham City Council)
The journey so far
Context
Concepts and uses of ‘risk’
Evolving vision
Critical reflection on uses of ‘risk’
Context: ‘Birmingham Project’
Pressures/Drivers
• Sustainability (but many landscape scale projects unsupported – ‘’not essential’)
• Climate Change
• Health and Wellbeing
Key Policy / Political Drivers
• National Indicators (esp. NI188)
• Local Area Agreements
• Public health placed within LA again - ‘new solution’
The sheer internal scale of the authority makes it particularly difficult to achieve cross-disciplinary working or close co-operations across
its various strategic directorships. Yet the scale of operations, budgets involved and numbers of people affected means that
the potential for synergistic working is great.
Concepts and uses of ‘risk’
1. Risk assessment as base evidence
2. Risk concept as a political hook
3. Risk management/reduction as guide for investment and management
4. Risk mapping as a visual communication tool
EVIDENCE BASE
RISK Assessment to establish
BUCCANEER – Birmingham Urban Climate Change Adaptation
Neighborhood Estimates of Environmental Risk (2008-2011)
BIRMINGHAM’S RISK LANGUAGE – CLIMATE CHANGE : Urban Heat Island
UHI=Urban Heat Island
Extreme events: e.g. Heatwave 18 July 2006
Social data: household density, age structure, ill health
Combined
Evidence
BUCANEER tool: 31 GIS layers Environmental, social, economic baseline factors
(e.g. flood risk, NO2, multiple deprivation index, rail access)
Overlaid with UKCIP climate change scenarios, Met Office data, satellite data (applied to local scale)
Fine-grained Urban Heat Island Model revealed importance of GI / ‘natural capital’
Green Infrastructure Strategy Examined (network of) green spaces
Valued ecosystem services (NEA methodology; applied to constituency level)
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Relationship between UHI and Greenspace in Birmingham
Crichton’s Risk Triangle (1999)
Hazard
e.g. high temperatures
Exposure
e.g. all households in specific area
Vulnerability
e.g. old age
POLITICAL HOOK
RISK Concept as a
Informing and influencing policy
Risk concept and messages has currency with and support from local politicians
Has stayed on the agenda despite national and local government changes… and economic downturn
Embedding into local policy and plans> Green Infrastructure and Adaptation Delivery Group
• NIA, WFD, National Health System restructuring
Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2010, reviewed annually)
Green Living Spaces Plan (in draft)
Development Plan to 2031 (‘Core Strategy’) (being developed)
Sustainable Development Policy (being developed)
Health and Wellbeing Strategy (under consultation)
Linking into policy discourses
Lawton Report Making Space for Nature
Marmot Review Fair Society Healthy Lives
Natural Capital, Ecosystem Assessment (Defra,
Research Councils, Welsh Government, Scottish Government)
INVESTMENT AND FOCUS
RISK Management to guide
Guiding decision-making
GIADGThe 9-piece jigsaw model based on the key themes of Birmingham’s Green Infrastructure and Adaptation Delivery Group, the associated risk-based processes (risk mapping, contingency planning, future proofing) and planning processes/cycle
Guiding /getting investment
Adopt key principles, cross-connections• Climate Change Adaptation Plan
• Green Living Spaces Plan
• Development Plan
• Sustainable Development Policy – ‘Places for the Future’
Better integration of sectors and goals than e.g. • Big City Plan (economic development focus)
“We will put natural capital at the centre of economic thinking;and at the heart of the way we measure economic progress.”
NATURAL CAPITAL COMMITTEE
COMMUNICATION TOOL
RISK Mapping as a
Risk and Vision Maps
Green Living Spaces Plan will use map(s) for each constituency
Show evidence and flag up ‘hot-spots’ for action / adaptation
Highlight ecosystem services / natural capital demand-supply and flows
Act as economic blueprint for Birmingham (Corporate Ecosystem Valuation tool)
NI188 STAGE 4 ---ECOSYSTEM CITY MODEL
Evolving VISIONS
NI188 level 4 Ecosystem City Model
National Indicator NI188 on planning to adapt to climate change
Measures progress on assessing and managing climate risks (and opportunities)
Cross-sector joined-up action plan with funding commitment for implementation
Looking beyond public sector to private sector (and voluntary sector)
Co-funding Co-production of vision Collaboration and joint
implementation
MAKING CONNECTIONS
First global Ecosystem City
Adapting to changing political context, policy drivers, funding needs/sources, role(s)
CRITICAL REFLECTION
RISK
Works as… What about …?
Part of evidence base
Persisting political hook
Possible incentive mechanism
First step management guide
Possible communication tool
Strategic approach; expert driven
Pro-active
Uncertainties; ignored variables
Values, normative approaches (risk - data intensive and time consuming)
‘Ordinary’ place and low risk areas
Ownership, agency, power
Bottom-up visions and actions
Risks with ‘risk’
Risk methods
Only as good as data; availability/gaps?
‘Relative’ measure (but looks absolute)
Confidence levels?
Single issue(s)?; stacking vs connections
Risk concept
Combination of risk factors / synergies - powerful political tool (too complex? – local ‘translation’ & innovation)
As part of e.g. MCDA framework
Adaptive management (research – policy – practice)