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The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
What Kind of Recovery?What Kind of Recovery?Vermont’s Economy in Vermont’s Economy in
20102010
By Richard Heaps
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
The Vermont Economy TodayThe Vermont Economy Today
The economy hit bottom in late 2009The economy hit bottom in late 2009 The recession has ended and the The recession has ended and the
recovery is starting to take holdrecovery is starting to take hold What is a recoveryWhat is a recovery Labor markets are near bottomLabor markets are near bottom
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Spending on Taxable Retail GoodsSpending on Taxable Retail Goods
Year over Year Monthly Change
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Spending on Meals & RoomsSpending on Meals & Rooms
Year over Year Monthly Change
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Sales of Vermont HomesSales of Vermont Homes
Qtrly Sales of R1 Houses
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,00005-Q
1
06-Q
1
07-Q
1
08-Q
1
09-Q
1
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Prices of Vermont HomesPrices of Vermont Homes
Median Price of R1 Houses
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Incomes of VermontersIncomes of Vermonters
Inflation-Adjusted Median Family Income
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
est
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Vermont Job Growth: 2005-09Vermont Job Growth: 2005-09Nonfarm Employment (SA)
285.0
290.0
295.0
300.0
305.0
310.0
315.0Ja
n-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09
SectorsSectors Job ChangeJob Change
AllAll -13,700-13,700
Private sectorPrivate sector -12,900-12,900
Public sectorPublic sector -800-800
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09
IndustryIndustry Job ChangeJob Change
Health care & social assistanceHealth care & social assistance +3,700+3,700
RetailRetail -3,400-3,400
ManufacturingManufacturing -5,200-5,200
Leisure & hospitalityLeisure & hospitality -2,400-2,400
Prof. & business servicesProf. & business services -1,900-1,900
ConstructionConstruction -3,700-3,700
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Unemployment Up in 2009Unemployment Up in 2009
Vermont Unemployment Rate
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Job Losses Across VermontJob Losses Across Vermont(Q2 08 to Q2 09)(Q2 08 to Q2 09)
RegionRegion Jobs LostJobs Lost % Lost% Lost
SouthernSouthern -5,541-5,541 -6.0%-6.0%
NorthwestNorthwest -3,658-3,658 -2.9%-2.9%
NortheastNortheast -1,007-1,007 -4.3%-4.3%
CentralCentral -1,804-1,804 -3.5%-3.5%
All VermontAll Vermont -11,328-11,328 -3.7%-3.7%
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
How Bad is this Recession?How Bad is this Recession?
Employment Change in Recent Vermont Recessions
94
96
98
100
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months past peak employent level
1981-832001-04
1989-94
2008-?
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
2010: The Start of the2010: The Start of theEconomic RecoveryEconomic Recovery
How a recovery developsHow a recovery develops
When will it start?When will it start?
Why measure by job growth?Why measure by job growth?
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Path of this RecoveryPath of this Recovery
The Recovery
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months past peak employent level
1981-83 2001-04
1989-94
2008-2014
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Where Will the New Jobs Be?Where Will the New Jobs Be?
From 2010 to 2012, about a 3% gain or From 2010 to 2012, about a 3% gain or 8,000 jobs8,000 jobs
Nearly all in the private sectorNearly all in the private sector
All sectors participate in the recoveryAll sectors participate in the recovery
Health care leads – one-third of all new Health care leads – one-third of all new jobsjobs
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
VT Unemployment RateVT Unemployment Rate
Vermont’s economy will look better Vermont’s economy will look better measured by the unemployment ratemeasured by the unemployment rate
It is 6.4% now?It is 6.4% now?
Rises to 7.0% for 2010Rises to 7.0% for 2010
Falls to 6.2% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012Falls to 6.2% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Vermont Real Family IncomesVermont Real Family Incomes
2008 and 2009 were -2.7% & -2.5%2008 and 2009 were -2.7% & -2.5%
2010 – just a 0.5% gain2010 – just a 0.5% gain
2011 – back to normal +2% to +3% 2011 – back to normal +2% to +3%
The Vermont Economy Newsletter - JanuarThe Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010y 8, 2010
Housing RecoversHousing Recovers
What is recovery?What is recovery?
Existing home sales up 30% in 2010 to Existing home sales up 30% in 2010 to 11,000 units --- then flat11,000 units --- then flat
Prices fall another 5% in 2010 --- then flatPrices fall another 5% in 2010 --- then flat
New permits modestly grow in 2010, then New permits modestly grow in 2010, then up 20% in 2011 and 30% in 2012up 20% in 2011 and 30% in 2012