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The Wadden Estuary – A History of Conflicts

Wouter van Dieren

chairman IMSA Amsterdam

member Club of Rome

member World Academy of Art and Science

seminars 2014/Wadden Academy

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How we created a win-win Wadden Sea:

• by returning science to the podium

• the Fund

• the Academy

• towards a rich Wadden Sea

• pro-active goodwill all-over

• how we can secure it

• and how to lose it

Again

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Present here:

• all people of good willing

• scientists, policy makers

• NGOs

• little industry

• few politicians

• many to live on the mercy of the new Fund

• which is soon (2020) a void

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The bright future:

• a stable food web

• a bounty of fish, shell, seal

• dynamic plant succession

• birdlife at the top

• the islands’ beauty in safe hands

• the coastal regioneconomically viable

• dikes and dunes safeguarded

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The grey future: the opposite of brightness

empty, ugly, dirty, neglected, overruled by windturbines, coal-fired power stations, disturbing skylines, flora and fauna exotic invaders, microplastic pollution, disappearing flats and sands, and other misery

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Disappearing flats and sands

The Riddle of the Sands (1903)

by Erskine Childers

HIGHER TIDES, SEA-LEVEL RISE

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The First Night in the Islands

A LOW line of sandhills, pink and fawnin the setting sun, at one end of them a little white village huddled round the base of a massive four-square lighthouse - such was Wangeroog, the easternmost of the Frisian Islands, as I saw it on the evening of 15th October

THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS

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We had decided to make it our first landing-place; and since it possesses no harbour, and is hedged by a mile of sand at low water, we had run in on the rising tide till the yacht grounded, in order to save ourselves as much labour as possible in the carriageto and fro of the heavy water-breakers and oil-cans which we had to replenish. In faintoutline three miles to the south of us was the flat plain of Friesland, broken only bysome trees, a windmill or two, and a church spire. Between, the shallow expanse of sea was already beginning to shrink away into lagoons, chief among which was the narrow passage by which we had approached from the east. This continued its course west, directly parallel to the island, and in it, at a distance of half a mile from us, threegalliots lay at anchor.

THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS

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The great floods

• Sint-Juliana flood 1164

• Marcellus flood 1219

• Lucia flood 1287

• Elisabeth flood 1421

Land turned into sea

ONLY 800 YEARS AGO

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Het Bildt (1300)

ONLY 80, 60, 50 YEARS AGO

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The estuary turned into polders:

Wieringen (1930)

Afsluitdijk (1932)

ONLY 80, 60, 50 YEARS AGO

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Lauwersmeer (1969)

ONLY 80, 60, 50 YEARS AGO

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The Frisian Ambition (FML, 1960-1965):

polders between the islands and the coast

ONLY 80, 60, 50 YEARS AGO

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The Dollart: a polder for potatoes

ONLY 80, 60, 50 YEARS AGO

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It is beautiful, it may remain beautiful

But we also may fail

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The greed of politics:

“It is only mud” (government minister, 1965)

THE WORTHLESS ESTUARY

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1965

• The Wadden Association

• Kees Wevers

• Stop the attack of the bulldozer

• Stop the crusade againstnature

• De Landelijke Vereniging tot Behoud van de Waddenzee= The National Association for the Conservation of the Wadden Sea

PUBLIC AWARENESS

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Eugene Odum

The Value of the Tidal Marsh (1974)

SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH

“One hectare here is worth $200.000” measured by energy flow and food chain production

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1999:

• The creation of the Wadden mantra: “Hands off!”

• A drastic block on almost everything

THE WADDEN ESTUARY AS A NATIONAL TREASURE

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However:

• cockles + mussels to continue

• and decline all over

• politics paralysed

• science excluded

THE WADDEN ESTUARY AS A NATIONAL TREASURE

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Win Win + Waddensea

• agreement NAM + IMSA

• full mandate

• search for objectivity

• science in the driving seat

• 180 media events

• 21 workshops, symposia

INTERVENTIONS

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Win-win + Wadden Sea (2002 - 2007)

• government appointed Meijer Commission

• reporting spring 2004

• cabinet decision July 2004

• parliament November 2004

• first gas February 2007

• Wadden Fund 800 million

INTERVENTIONS

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Win-win + Wadden Sea (2002 - 2004)

• Cascade model

• outcome

• example of the calculations

INTERVENTIONS

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THE CASCADE MODEL

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THE CASCADE MODEL

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THE CASCADE MODEL

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When we fail:

• we agree to disagree

• we disagree on everything

• we do not share common goals

• we do not stand united

• we offer politics the chance to turn their backs to science

WHEN WE FAIL

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WHEN WE FAIL

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WHEN WE FAIL

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WHEN WE FAIL

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BATTLEFIELD OF SCIENCE

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http://www.tubechop.com/watch/4321695

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• the drowning of the estuary in 2134

• the fragile islands and the coming high storm frequency

• the effect of drowning on the global sulfur cycle

• the effects on global birdlife

AND WE DO NOT OBSERVE THE NEARING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS

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“There the ocean flows with two intervals, at day and at night, in a tremendous flood over an immense land. Because of this everlasting struggle with the course of nature, it is doubtful whether the bottom is land or sea. In the area a miserable people live on high hills, or better on man-made mounds, just above the highest water level known by experience. On these mounds they have built their shacks and when the water is high they are like sailors, but when the water is low they look more like shipwrecked sailors.”

Plinius the Elder (77 AD)

SHIPWRECKING SCIENCE

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Heroes of the estuary:

• NAM, to encourage the renovation of Wadden policies

• NIOZ, Imares, RUG, to ring the alarm bells

• Wadden Fund, to govern vast amounts

• Wadden Academy, to support and encouragescience cooperation

• PRW, its unique science and policy process

• Wadden Association, now celebrating its successes

• Unesco status

HEROES OF THE ESTUARY

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What we need next:

• better governance

• also international

• universal monitor or compass to guide us throughthe complexity of choices

• Wadden-users parliament

• impact studies• Effects of climate change

• Transition of world economy

• Future scenario’s

• solid ‘société de discours’ (Foucault)

FUTURE NEEDS

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