The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in transboundary basins -more benefits for sharing

Holger Hoff

Stockholm Environment InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nexus Lecture Series, Cologne, 17 October 2013

Nexus:

What is it?

Why do we need it?

How to implement it?

in transboundary basins

in the Jordan River

in the Blue Nile

What is the nexus?

previous examples of integrated approaches- ecosystem approach- agro-ecology or agro-forestry- integrated water resources management (IWRM)

integrated or systemic approaches across sectors and resources:

generating co-benefits, increasing overall resource use efficiencies, mobilizing untapped potentials,

BUT: mostly driven by individual sectors,lessons not learned, not continuedno transfer & upscaling

e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources, multi-functional systems, improved river basin and landscape configurations etc.

Why do we need a nexus approach?

a resource constrained and environmentally limited world:growing demand for natural resources, biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) and other ecosystem services

degradation of resources / ecosystems + climate change

risk of transgressing sustainability thresholds, from local to planetary boundaries

reconciling economic development with future food /water / energy /environmental security & resilience

How to implement a nexus approach?

baseline assessment: resource locations, availabilities, (cross-resource) demands and productivities

toolbox for scenario assessments: WEAP (water), LEAP (energy)

entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles towards policy coherence, e.g. revisions of strategies / plans

economic incentives for reducing negative externalities, e.g. resource prices, subsidies, payments for environmental services

partnerships / dialogues / platformslevel playing field,bridging institutions

A nexus approach in transboundary basins

45% of land mass, 40% of the world‘s populationoften lack of cooperation

existing transboundary cooperations are primarily sectoral, e.g. on specific waterworks or water uses,-> zero-sum games

nexus: multiple-resource / multiple-sector agreements,more benefits for sharing,win-win solutions

let‘s identify initial examples of cooperation on • reservoirs & hydropower• agricultural water management (water harvesting, re-allocations, irrigation..)• land management for carbon sequestration (CDM, REDD+…)

A nexus approach in transboundary basins

starting from UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and

International Lakes - “Water Convention”

a holistic approach:• preventing adverse transboundary impacts• managing shared waters using the

ecosystems approach and restoring ecosystems

• equitable water use

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

equitable water use?

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

  contributions (million m3 / year)

withdrawals(million m3 / year)

Jordan 530 320Syria 435 260Israel 160 >700

Palestian Authority

155 60

Lebanon 120 10

Phillips et al. 2006

meaning what?

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects,such as Red Sea – Dead Sea Canal with large scale desalinationand/or nuclear power

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity

starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)

Menzel et al. 2011

-> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy)

restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism)

and taking into account the topography

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

Baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity

solar power and desalination (co-benefits from technology transfer – also to GCC countries)

Dead Sea

starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)

-> more energy efficient irrigation configuration (additional co-benefits from saving energy)

restoring environmental flows (additional co-benefits from tourism)

and taking into account the topography

future diversification of benefits gets will get easier:riparians successively reduce their dependency on Jordan River water:only 2% of employment is in agriculture (for comparison in Egypt: 30%)¾ of food demand is met from imports (Egypt: ~ 40%)increasing diversification of water sources (desalination)

A nexus approach in the Jordan River

nexus tools for quantifying tradeoffs & synergies (scenario assessment)

e.g. participatory WEAP developmentfor assessing systemic effectsof different interventions (Hoff et al. 2011)

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Hoff et al. 2012

A nexus approach in the Nile

A nexus approach in the Nile

and from topography-> more energy-efficient food production (benefits from reduced pumping)

baseline assessment: water distribution, availability, demand, productivity

FAO 2011

and from aridity-> more water-efficient food production (benefits from reduced irrigation demand)

e.g. starting from rainfall (improved rainfed agriculture)

A nexus approach in the Nile

The Nile Egypt‘s lifeline

Phillips et al. 2006

equitable water use?

nexus as an alternative to pharaonic projects such as the Sudd wetland drainage

A nexus approach in the Nile

Jonglei Canal

(1974 – 1984)

A nexus approach in the Nile

potential co-benefits: • higher water productivity in agriculture and in power production• sediment reduction• flood protection• improved navigation• securing environmental flows

• Potential for further improved resource management through collaboration (see MWRI in Egypt)

evaporative losses from > 10 km3 per yearAssuan dam-> large potential for optimizing water storage

power links and power trade:Eastern African Power Pool

A nexus approach in the Nile

sharing benefits beyond water:energy production

Ethiopia (GDP per capita 6 times smaller than Egypt’s)has large hydropower potential

additional co-benefits from: - reduced spendings on oil imports- risk spreading through diversification of power sources (= resilieince)

A nexus approach in the Nile

Karimi et al. 2010

sharing benefits beyond water:food production

large agricultural water productivity gradientacross the basin (factor 10)

Ethiopia is one of the maintarget countries for foreign direct investments (Bossio et al. 2012)

(including Egyptian investments)

foreign direct investment for improved basin-wideresource use efficiency(including green water) (Hoff et al. 2012)

A nexus approach in the Nile

nexus tools fordemonstratingbenefitsquantitatively(ongoing projectin the upper Blue Nile)

“States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation” Grey et. al. 2009

A nexus approach in the Nile

starting from the Blue Nileabout 2/3rd of total Nile flow to Egypt

comparing business-as-usual (BAU) and the Ethiopian Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP)

Lake Tana

WEAP model

Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana

Januar

y

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ary

Mar

chApril

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mber

October

Novem

ber

Decem

ber1784

1784.5

1785

1785.5

1786

1786.5

1787

BAUGTP/CRGE

m.a.s.l.

critical lake level: navigation, fishing,wetland conservation

Initial WEAP model for Lake Tana and Beles „corridor“

water limited biofuel and hydropower scenarios

Lachaut2012

Initial LEAP model for Ethiopia

total energy demand for intensified agriculture (GTP)

de Strasser2013

policy support through quantitative tradeoff analysis

RESOURCE PRIMARY SECONDARY DISTRIBUTION FINAL USE

ENERGY

Geothermal Resources Geothermal Power Plants

T&D Electricity Uses

Hydropower Plants

Importation of Oil Processing Transport

Distribution Fertilizer Production

Fertile Land Biomass Biofuel Production Other uses

WATER

Precipitation

Catchment Dams/Storage Groundwater transportation Pumping Irrigation

Runoff Other Uses

Groundwater Extraction Canals Distribution Gravity Irrigation

CLIMATE

Temperature

Evaporation Transpiration GHGs Emissions

Humidity

LAND

Forest Forestation Wood Production

Urban Areas

Desertic Land Urbanization Industrialization Infrastructure

Crops Production

Fertile Land Agriculture Biofuel Production

Livestock Production26

CLEWsframework:

de Strasser2013

How to institutionalize a nexus approach?

Institutional (social) network analysis for the upper Blue Nile:

A nexus approach in the Nile

Stein et al.2013