The Way I See It! - Imperialism’s Tinder Box is Full: No Nuclear Attack on Iran

8/8/2019 The Way I See It! - Imperialisms Tinder Box is Full: No Nuclear Attack on Iran

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TheWayISeeIt!ImperialismsTinderBoxisFull:NoNuclearAttackonIran

By:DonCurrieChairCanadiansforPeaceandSocialismEditorFocusonSocialismAugust27,2010

www.FocusOnSocialism.ca


2/17

www.FocusOnSocialism.ca Page2of17

DearComradesandFriends

The prcis below by Fidel Castro Ruz of the work of the proIsraeli journalist Jeffrey

Goldberg must shake the complacency of every Communist, labour militant and peace

activisttothecore.

It isclear,as theWorldPeaceCouncil (WPC)and the InternationalMovementofWorkers

andCommunistParties(IMWCP)hasbeenwarningforsometime,thatIsraelwillattackIran,

withintheyearwithorwithouttheapprovaloftheObamaadministration.

The consequences of an aerial bombardment of Irans nuclear facilities can be so

catastrophic and destabilizing not only for theMiddle East and CentralAsia, but for the

entire

current

shaky

framework

of

international

relations,

that

it

can

cause

a

chain

reaction

thatwill create the conditions foruncontrollablemassivewarwithmisery anddeath for

millionsofpeople,includingthepeopleofIsrael,Palestineandtheirclosestneighbours.

WeshouldneverforgetasSoviethistorianswarnedus, thatWW2wasnotasingleevent,

but the culminationof awhole seriesof capitalistwars, culminating in theunleashingof

Hitlersarmiesthatledtothedeathsof50millionpeople.

Today the tinder box of imperialism is full. There are 12000 nuclear weapons, the

militarizationofspaceviasatellites,andthegreatestconcentrationofmilitarypowerinthe

hands

of

the

leading

imperialist

state

the

USA,

organized

globally,

exceeding

anything

we

haveseensincetheendofWW2.

TheinternalsituationintheUSAisunstable.TheUSeconomyisstagnantandmayevenbe

sliding into another phase of economic crisis. The rightwing extremist pressures on the

ObamaAdministrationtoaccedetowideningthewarsinCentralAsiaaregrowing.Nothing

emanating from the Obama Administration gives us confidence that without enormous

pressure,ithaseitherthewillortheintenttostaythehandofIsrael.

The twin evils of capitalism at the imperialist stage, extreme economic instability and

militarism,are

merging

with

speed

and

with

unparalleled

peril

and

misery

for

the

people

of

theworld.

Comradesandfriends.


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Wewho know better and from our own experience thatwar in themodern era solves

nothingexcepttobreedmorewararecalledupontoputthemattersquarely:Whatarewe

goingto

do?

The situation that is maturing and that is leading to another war demands that the

responsibleprogressiveleftactnow.

The responsibility toactfallsmosturgentlyontheCommunistsandtheirsupporters,past

and present and in the first place on the current leadership of the Communist Party of

Canada.

Whatshouldwedoasaminimumtofulfillourresponsibilitytoourpeople,toourcause,to

our

class

and

to

our

country?

What

is

the

concentration

task

around

which

we

can

all

unite?

TopreventanIsraeliUSHarpersanctionedattackonIranwouldbeagreatvictoryforpeace

and the best way we can help the people of Iran who are struggling under the most

contradictoryanddifficultcircumstanceforprogressiveadvance,democracyandpeace.The

consequences for the people of Israel are unforeseen. They can be quite terrible. The

consequenceforthebeleagueredpeopleofGazaandLebanonwillbedire.Howcanawar

againstIranhelptobringanendtotheordealofthepeopleofIraqandAfghanistan?

Weknowthereare inourowncountry,prowarforces,drivenbyhatredandrevengeand

myopia

that

will

welcome

such

a

war.

War

profiteering

as

always,

is

a

major

motive.

The

rest

isdeceit!

Whereverwemaybeatinourunderstandingofpeaceandprogress,whateverhasbeenour

personaljourney,noneofussupportwhatisbeingplannedinTelAvivandWashingtontobe

intheinterestsofanyofthepeoplesoftheMiddleEastandtheworld.WaragainstIran is

nottheanswer.ItwasntinIraqanditwasntinAfghanistanandwillnotbeinIran.

Wheretostart? Withtheobvious aplanofaction.

Nothingthatissaidherehasnotalreadybeenconsidered. Whatisconcerningisthatithas

notasyetbeendone.Therefore:

1. Weurgentlyappeal toGeneralSecretaryMiguelFigueroa leaderof theCommunistParty ofCanada to immediately,with the help of hismost trusted coworkers, to

prepareacarefullyworded,sober,succinctandbriefaspossiblestatement, inboth

French and English, to all of organized labour, peace and democratic forces of


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Quebec andCanada includingallof themembersof theoppositionpartieswith a

specialappealtotheNDPCaucusinParliament,theNDPGovernmentsofNovaScotia

andManitoba,

to

all

of

the

NDP

MLAs

in

all

of

the

provinces

and

territories,

to

the

responsible environmentalists and to the working class at large, warning of the

extremeconsequencesforpeaceofanIsraeliattackonIranandtodoeverythingin

theirpowertopreventit.

2. The issuingofsuchastatementshouldbeaccompaniedwith thecallingofapressconference and consideration given towhat can be done to have the statement

carriedonCPAC,theCBCandallwebsiteswithwhichtheCPCmaybeincontact.

3. We urge theCECof theCPC to consider requesting theopportunity for itspublicspokespersons

to

hand

deliver

their

statement

personally

to

a

representative

of

the

embassies and or consulates of Israel, Iran and the USA and to circulate such a

statementtotheentireambassadorialcommunityinOttawa.

4. Considerationmay be given to issuingof joint statementswith representativesofpropeacestateswithembassiesinCanada.

5. WerecommendthatallprovincialpartyorganizationsandtheCommunistsinQuebecbecalledupontogodirectlytotheirmembersandsupportersandappealto them

forhelptocirculateanddistributesuchastatementandtowhereverpossiblehand

deliverit

to

all

local

news

media

and

distribute

as

widely

as

possible

to

all

local

and

community papers, cable networks, and to the most progressively consistent

bloggersforpeace.

6. WeurgetheeditorialboardofPeoplesVoicetoassignamemberof itsboardwiththespecialconcentration task toprepareandedita featuredcolumndedicated to

the struggle forpeace that carries as a regular feature, the appeals of theWorld

PeaceCouncil,theCanadianPeaceCongress,theCanadianpeacemovementandthe

InternationalCommunistMovement relating topreventingan imperialistattackon

Iran.

7. WeappealtotheCECoftheCPCtoconveneanemergencyenlargedmeetingoftheCCassoonaspossibleandtomobilizealloftheresourcesathandwithanappealto

allofitscandidatestoissuestatementscallinguponallothernominatedcandidates

ofotherpoliticalpartiestorenounceanysupportforanattackbyIsraelonIran.This

should be done publicly and as part of the CPCs federal election work with the


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specificandpubliclystatedintenttodefeattheHarperGovernmentsprowarpolicy

andoustitfrompowerassoonaspossible.

8. We call upon all progressives to assist CPCon tomount a campaign for funds tosupportaCPConpubliccampaigntopreventanattackonIran.

9. Wecall for fullsupport toDaveMcKee,Presidentof theCanadianPeaceCongress(CPCon) andhiscommitteeandtodoallwecantoassistthemwithrealresources

requiredtoactivateCPCononacountrywidescale.

10.WerecommendthatCPConplanforanemergencyenlargedmeetingofitsexecutive,whereanappealcanbe issued totheCanadianPeaceAllianceandallof thepeace

organizations

of

Canada

calling

upon

them

to

speak

over

the

heads

of

the

politicians

directlytotheCanadianpeopletoopposeanIsraeliUSHarpersanctionedattackon

Iran.

11. We recommend that CPCon immediately speak with all of its Iranian and MiddleEasternandCentralAsiansupporterstospeakdirectlytotheircommunitiesandurge

them to publicly denounceplans forwar on Iran and towork resolutely for non

proliferationofnuclearweapons incooperationswithCPConand theWorldPeace

Council.

12.We

appeal

to

comrade

Professor

Daniel

Goldstick,

Editor

of

Spark

to

immediately

go

totheUnitedJewishPeoplesOrder(UJPO)andurgethemtoworkincollaboration

withCPConandtoconveneameetingofalloftheirsupporterstopubliclydenounce

theNetanyahuGovernmentanditsaggressivepoliciesandtoimmediatelyspeakout

againstthethreatofanIsraeliattackonIran.

13.We urge President Dave McKee or someone from his committee to immediatelyspeakwiththe leadingcommitteeoftheAssociationofUnitedUkrainianCanadians

appealing to them to act in cooperations with CPCon to alert and appeal to its

memberstoopposeanIsraeliUSsanctionedattackonIran.

14.WeurgePresidentDaveMcKeeoramemberofhiscommittee tospeakwithMikeLucas and his organization appealing to them to begin toworkwith CPCon on a

campaignofpeaceandtopreventanIsraelattackonIran.

15.WecallupontheCECoftheCPCtoconveneameetingofthefourteentradeunionmembers,newlyelectedtothe CCtodiscussaplanofactionthatwouldincludethe


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organizingofarankandfile labourpeacecommittee.Parttheirworkwouldinclude

opening up direct communicationswith theWFTU, consideration of attending its

nextWorld

Congress

and

circulating

the

work

of

the

WFTU

for

peace,

among

Canadiantradeunionists.

Ifthesemodeststepsweretaken,wecouldlaythebasisforconveningearlyintheNewYear

ofthemostrepresentativeconferenceofleftprogressivepeaceforceswecanmobilizewith

invitationstotheWPC,theWFTU,theWFDY,theWIDFtosendgreetingsasaminimumand

delegates if possible, with the express purpose of repositioning our movement as the

leadingforceforpeaceinCanada.

Dearcomradesandfriends.

Theseproposalsaremade inthefullknowledge that the leftprogressiveforcesdonotas

yetcommandthemasssupportwewouldwish.Thatisnotanexcusenottoactinthemost

organized,purposefulandunitedwaythatwecanwiththeresourceswehave.

AsChairofCPS,Iamdeeplyconvinced,not justfromtheexperienceofthepast,butfrom

whatIbelievetobeagrowingwarwearinessamongCanadianswithwhathashappenedin

Afghanistan, that a united campaign initiated by the left progressive forces,with CPCon

leading it,appealingtotheCanadianpeoplenottopermittheHarperGovernmenttodrag

us into anotherwar,would resonatepositively andhave an inspiring affecton allof the

forcesfor

peace

across

the

whole

country.

Icallfordiscussions,urgentdiscussions,

Thereisnooneelsetodoit

Comradely

DonCurrie,Chair,CanadiansforPeaceandSocialism

From:SolidNet[mailto:[email protected]]

Sent:Friday,August27,20101:19AM

To:[email protected]

Subject:Cuba,ReflectionsbyComradeFidel:TheOpinionofanExpert


7/17


http://www.solidnet.org

News,documentsandcallsforactionfromcommunistandworkersparties.The itemsare

theresponsibilityoftheauthors.

Jointhemailinglist:info/subscribe/unsubscribemailto:[email protected] .

Cuba,ReflectionsbyComradeFidel:TheOpinionofanExpertFrom:EmbassyofCubainGreece,Friday,27August2010ReflectionsbyComradeFidel

TheOpinionofAnExpertIf Iwere tobeaskedwhobestknowsabout Israeli thinking, Iwouldanswer thatwithout

questionitisJeffreyGoldberg.Heisanindefatigablejournalist,capableofhavingdozensof

meetingstoascertainhowsomeIsraelileaderorintellectualmaythink.

Heisnotneutral,ofcourse;heisproIsraeli,noandsifsorbuts. Whenoneofthemdoesnot

agreewiththepolicyofthatcountry,thattooisnotdonehalfway.

Formyaim, it is importanttoknowthethinkingthatguidesthemainpoliticalandmilitary

leadersofthatState.

IfeelthatIhavetheauthoritytohaveanopinionbecauseIhaveneverbeenantiSemiticand

IsharewithhimaprofoundhatredofNaziFascismand thegenocideperpetratedagainst

children,womenandmen,youngoragedJewsagainstwhomHitler,theGestapoandthe

Nazistookouttheirhatredagainstthatpeople.

Forthesamereason,IabhorthecrimescommittedbythefascistgovernmentofNetanyahu

whichkillschildren,womenandmen,youngandoldintheGazaStripandontheWestBank.

InhisillustratedarticleThePointofNoReturnthatwillbeprintedinTheAtlanticjournal

inSeptember

2010,

now

available

on

the

Internet,

Jeffrey

Goldberg

starts

his

more

than

40

pagepaper;Iamtakingtheessentialideasfromitinordertoenlightenthereaders.

It is possible that at some point in the next 12 months, the imposition of devastating

economicsanctionsonthe IslamicRepublicof Iranwillpersuade its leaders toceasetheir

pursuitofnuclearweapons. []It ispossible,aswell, thatfoilingoperationsconducted

by the intelligenceagenciesof Israel, theUnitedStates,GreatBritain,andotherWestern
http://www.solidnet.org/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.solidnet.org/


8/17


powers[]willhavehinderedIransprogressinsomesignificantway.Itisalsopossible

that President Obama, who has said on more than a few occasions that he finds the

prospectof

a

nuclear

Iran

unacceptable,

will

order

a

military

strike

against

the

countrys

mainweaponsanduraniumenrichmentfacilities.

I am not engaging in a thought exercise, or a onemanwar game,when I discuss the

plausibilityandpotentialconsequencesofan Israelistrikeon Iran. Israelhas twicebefore

successfullyattackedanddestroyedanenemysnuclearprogram.In1981,Israeliwarplanes

bombed the Iraqi reactoratOsirak,haltingforever,as it turnedoutSaddamHusseins

nuclear ambitions; and in 2007, Israeli planes destroyed aNorth Koreanbuilt reactor in

Syria.AnattackonIran,then,wouldbeunprecedentedonlyinscopeandcomplexity.

Ihave

been

exploring

the

possibility

that

such

a

strike

will

eventually

occur

for

more

than

sevenyears, []Inthemonthssincethen,Ihaveinterviewedroughly40currentandpast

Israelidecisionmakersaboutamilitarystrike,aswellasmanyAmericanandArabofficials.In

mostof these interviews, Ihaveaskeda simplequestion:what is thepercentagechance

that Israelwillattack the Iraniannuclearprogram in thenear future?Noteveryonewould

answer this question, but a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent

chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July. [] But I tested the consensus by

speaking to multiple sources both in and out of government, and of different political

parties.Citingtheextraordinarysensitivityofthesubject,mostspokeonlyreluctantly,and

oncondition

of

anonymity.

[]The

reasoning

offered

by

Israeli

decision

makers

was

uncomplicated: Iran is,atmost,one to three yearsaway fromhavingabreakoutnuclear

capability[]andthemostcrucialcomponentof Israelinationalsecuritydoctrine,atenet

thatdatesbacktothe1960s[]isthatnoregionaladversaryshouldbeallowedtoachieve

nuclearparitywiththerebornandstillbesiegedJewishstate.

Inourconversationbeforehisswearingin,Netanyahuwouldnotframetheissueinterms

ofnuclearparity[]Instead,heframedtheIranianprogramasathreatnotonlytoIsrael

buttoallofWesterncivilization.

Whenthe

wide

eyed

believer

gets

hold

of

the

reins

of

power

and

the

weapons

of

mass

death,thentheworldshouldstartworrying,andthatswhatishappeninginIran.

In our conversation, Netanyahu refused to discuss his timetable for action, or even

whether he was considering military preemption of the Iranian nuclear program.

[]Netanyahusbelief is that Iran isnot Israelsproblemalone; it is theworldsproblem,


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and theworld, ledby theUnitedStates, isdutybound tograpplewith it.ButNetanyahu

does not place great faith in sanctionsnot the relatively weak sanctions against Iran

recentlypassed

by

the

United

Nations

Security

Council,

nor

the

more

rigorous

ones

being

putinplacebytheU.S.anditsEuropeanallies.

But,basedonmyconversationswithIsraelidecisionmakers,thisperiodofforbearance,in

whichNetanyahuwaitstoseeiftheWestsnonmilitarymethodscanstopIran,willcometo

anendthisDecember.

TheNetanyahugovernment isalready intensifying itsanalyticeffortsnot juston Iran,but

onasubjectmany Israelishavedifficultyunderstanding:PresidentObama.The Israelisare

struggling to answer what is for them the most pressing question: are there any

circumstancesunder

which

President

Obama

would

deploy

force

to

stop

Iran

from

going

nuclear?Everythingdependsontheanswer.

Irandemandstheurgentattentionoftheentireinternationalcommunity,andinparticular

theUnitedStates,withitsunparalleledabilitytoprojectmilitaryforce.Thisisthepositionof

manymoderateArableadersaswell.Afewweeksago,inuncommonlydirectremarks,the

ambassadoroftheUnitedArabEmiratestotheUnitedStates,YousefalOtaiba,toldme

[]thathiscountrywouldsupportamilitarystrikeon Iransnuclearfacilities.[]hesaid.

Small,rich,vulnerablecountries intheregiondonotwanttobetheoneswhosticktheir

fingerinthebigbullyseye,ifnobodysgoingtocometotheirsupport.

SeveralArab leadershavesuggestedthatAmericasstanding intheMiddleEastdepends

on itswillingness to confront Iran.They argue selfinterestedly that an aerialattackon a

handfulof Iranianfacilitieswouldnotbeascomplicatedorasmessyas,say, invading Iraq.

ThisisnotadiscussionabouttheinvasionofIran,oneArabforeignministertoldme.We

arehoping for thepinpoint strikingof severaldangerous facilities.America coulddo this

veryeasily.

Barack Obama has said any number of times that he would find a nuclear Iran

unacceptable.

[]A

nuclear

Iran

would

be

a

game

changing

situation,

not

just

in

the

Middle East, but around the world. Whatever remains of our nuclear nonproliferation

framework, I think,wouldbegin todisintegrate.Youwouldhave countries in theMiddle

Eastwhowouldseethepotentialneedtoalsoobtainnuclearweapons.


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ButtheIsraelisaredoubtfulthatamanwhopositionedhimselfastheantithesisofGeorge

W. Bush, author of invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq, would launch a preemptive

attackon

a

Muslim

nation.

Weallwatchedhisspeech inCairo,asenior Israeliofficialtoldme,referringtotheJune

2009 speech in which Obama attempted to reset relations with Muslims by stressing

Americancooperativenessand respect for Islam.Wedontbelieve thathe is thesortof

personwhowould launchadaring strikeon Iran.Weareafraidhewould seeapolicyof

containinganuclearIranratherthanattackingit.

Bushwastwoyearsago,butthe Iranianprogramwasthesameandthe intentwasthe

same, the Israeliofficial toldme.So IdontpersonallyexpectObama tobemoreBush

thanBush.

If the Israelis reach the firm conclusion thatObamawill not, under any circumstances,

launchastrikeonIran,thenthecountdownwillbeginforaunilateralIsraeliattack.

a strike on Iran, Israeli intelligence officials believe, could provoke allout retaliation by

IransLebanesesubsidiary,Hezbollah,whichnowpossesses,bymostintelligenceestimates,

asmanyas45,000rocketsat leastthreetimesasmanyas ithad inthesummerof2006,

duringthelastroundoffightingbetweenthegroupandIsrael.)

Netanyahu

is

not

unique

in

his

understanding

of

this

challenge;

several

of

the

prime

ministerswhoprecededhimcast Irans threat insimilarlyexistential terms. []Hehasa

deepsenseofhis role inJewishhistory,MichaelOren, IsraelsambassadortotheUnited

States,toldme.

JeffreyGoldberggoesonforseveralpagestotellthestoryofNetanyahusfather,BenZion,

whomheconsiderstobethemostoutstandinghistorianintheworldonthesubjectofthe

Spanish Inquisition and other important merits, and who recently celebrated his 100th

birthday.

BenjaminNetanyahu

is

not

known

in

most

quarters

for

his

pliability

on

matters

concerning

Palestinians, though he has been trying lately tomeet at least some of BarackObamas

demandsthathemovethepeaceprocessforward.


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At theendof thispartofhisarticle,Goldbergcarriesonwiththeanalysisof thecomplex

situation. Attimesheisrathertoughanalyzinga2001commentarybytheformerpresident

ofIran,

Hashemi

Rafsanjani,

in

which

he

is

certainly

speaking

about

a

bomb

that

would

destroyIsrael;athreatthatwascriticizedevenbytheleftwingforcesthatareNetanyahus

enemies.

ThechallengesposedbyanuclearIranaremoresubtlethanadirectattack,Netanyahutold

me. [] Iransmilitantproxieswouldbe able to fire rocketsandengage inother terror

activitieswhile enjoying a nuclear umbrella. []Instead of being a local event, however

painful, it becomes a global one. Second, this development would embolden Islamic

militants farandwide,onmany continents,whowouldbelieve that this isaprovidential

sign,thatthisfanaticismisontheultimateroadtotriumph..

Youdcreateagreatseachangeinthebalanceofpowerinourarea,hewenton.

Other Israeli leadersbelieve that themere threatofanuclearattackby Irancombined

withthechronicmenacingofIsraelscitiesbytherocketforcesofHamasandHezbollah

willprogressivelyunderminethecountrysabilitytoretainitsmostcreativeandproductive

citizens..[]Therealtestforus istomakeIsraelsuchanattractiveplace,suchacutting

edgeplaceinhumansociety,education,culture,science,qualityoflife,thatevenAmerican

Jewishyoungpeoplewanttocomehere.

Patriotismin

Israel

runs

very

high,

according

to

numerous

polls,

and

it

seemed

unlikely

to

me that mere fear of Iran could drive Israels Jews to seek shelter elsewhere. But one

leadingproponentofan Israeli attackon Iransnuclear facilities,EphraimSneh,a former

generaland formerdeputydefenseminister, isconvinced that if Irancrossed thenuclear

threshold, thevery ideaof Israelwouldbeendangered.Thesepeoplearegoodcitizens,

andbravecitizens,butthedynamicsof lifearesuchthat ifsomeonehasascholarshipfor

twoyearsatanAmericanuniversityandtheuniversityoffershimathirdyear,theparents

willsay,Goahead,remainthere,SnehtoldmewhenImetwithhiminhisofficeoutsideof

TelAvivnot longago.IfsomeonefinishesaPh.D.and theyareoffereda job inAmerica,

theymight

stay

there.

It

will

not

be

that

people

are

running

to

the

airport,

[]The

bottom

line is thatwewouldhaveanacceleratedbraindrain.Andan Israel that isnotbasedon

entrepreneurship,thatisnotbasedonexcellence,willnotbetheIsraeloftoday.

OneMondayeveninginearlysummer,IsatintheofficeofthedecidedlynongoyisheRahm

Emanuel, theWhiteHousechiefofstaff,and listened toseveralNationalSecurityCouncil


12/17


officials he had gathered at his conference table explainin so many wordswhy the

JewishstateshouldtrustthenonJewishpresidentoftheUnitedStatestostop Iranfrom

crossingthe

nuclear

threshold.

Oneofthoseatthetable,BenRhodes,adeputynationalsecurityadviserwhoservedas

theleadauthoroftherecentNationalSecurityStrategyfortheUnitedStatesaswellasof

thepresidentsconciliatoryCairospeech,suggestedthatIransnuclearprogramwasaclear

threat to American security, and that the Obama administration responds to national

securitythreatsinthemannerofotheradministrations.Wearecoordinatingamultifaceted

strategy to increasepressureon Iran, but that doesntmeanweve removed any option

from the table, Rhodes said. This president has shown again and again thatwhen he

believes it isnecessarytouseforcetoprotectAmericannationalsecurity interests,hehas

doneso.Werenotgoingtoaddresshypotheticalsaboutwhenandifwewouldusemilitary

force,butIthinkwevemadeitclearthatwearentremovingtheoptionofforcefromany

situationinwhichournationalsecurityisaffected.

Emanuel,whosedefaultstateisexasperation[](AformerBushadministrationofficial

toldmethathispresidentfacedtheoppositeproblem:Bush,boggeddownbytwowarsand

believingthat Iranwasntthatclosetocrossingthenuclearthreshold,opposedtheuseof

forceagainstIransprogram,andmadehisviewclear,butnoonebelievedhim).

Atonepoint,Iputforwardtheideathatforabundantlyobviousreasons,fewpeoplewould

believeBarackObamawouldopenupa third front in thegreaterMiddleEast.Oneof the

officials responded heatedly, What have we done that would allow you to reach the

conclusionthatwethinkthatanuclearIranwouldrepresentatolerablesituation?

Obama administrationofficials,particularly in thePentagon,have several times signaled

unhappinessatthepossibilityofmilitarypreemption.InApril,theundersecretaryofdefense

forpolicy,MicheleFlournoy,toldreportersthatmilitaryforceagainstIranwasoffthetable

inthenearterm.She laterbacktracked,butAdmiralMichaelMullen,thechairmanofthe

JointChiefsofStaff,hasalsocriticizedthe ideaofattacking Iran.[]Inanareathatsso

unstableright

now,

we

just

dont

need

more

of

that.

PresidentObama has by nomeans ruled out counterproliferation by force.. []Gary

Samore, the National Security Council official who oversees the administrations

counterproliferationagenda,toldmethattheIsraelisagreewithAmericanassessmentsthat

Iransuraniumenrichmentprogramisplaguedwithproblems.


13/17


we can measure, based on the IAEA reports, that the Iranians are not doing well,

Samoresaid.Theparticularcentrifugemachines theyre runningarebasedonan inferior

technology.They

are

running

into

some

technical

difficulties,

partly

because

of

the

work

weve done to deny them access to foreign components. When they make the parts

themselves,theyaremakingpartsthatdonthavequalitycontrol.

DennisRoss, the formerMiddleEastpeacenegotiatorwho iscurrentlyaseniorNational

Security Council official, said during the meeting that he believes the Israelis now

understand thatAmericaninstigatedmeasureshave slowed Iransprogress, and that the

administrationisworkingtoconvincetheIsraelisandotherpartiesintheregionthatthe

sanctionsstrategyhasachanceofworking.

Thepresident

has

said

he

hasnt

taken

any

options

off

the

table,

but

lets

take

a

look

at

why

we think this strategy could work, []Last June, when they hadnt responded to our

bilateraloutreach,thepresidentsaidthatwewouldtakestockbySeptember.

Ross[]thesanctionsIrannowfacesmayaffecttheregimesthinking.Thesanctionsare

going to cut across the board. They are taking place in the context of Iranian

mismanagementthe Iranians are going to have to cut [food and fuel] subsidies; they

alreadyhavepublicalienation; theyhavedivision intheelites,andbetween theelitesand

therestofthecountry.

Onequestion

no

administration

official

seems

eager

to

answer

is

this:

what

will

the

United

States do if sanctions fail? Several Arab officials complained to me that the Obama

administrationhasnotcommunicateditsintentionstothem,evengenerally.

ObamasvoterslikeitwhentheadministrationshowsthatitdoesntwanttofightIran,but

this isnotadomesticpolitical issue, the foreignministersaid.Iranwillcontinueon this

recklesspath,unlesstheadministrationstartstospeakunreasonably.Thebestwaytoavoid

strikingIranistomakeIranthinkthattheU.S.isabouttostrikeIran.Wehavetoknowthe

presidents intentionson thismatter.Wearehisallies. (According to twoadministration

sources,

this

issue

caused

tension

between

President

Obama

and

his

recently

dismissed

directorofnationalintelligence,AdmiralDennisBlair.Accordingtothesesources,Blair,who

wassaidtoputgreatemphasisontheIranianthreat,toldthepresidentthatAmericasArab

alliesneededmorereassurance.Obamareportedlydidnotappreciatetheadvice.)

InIsrael,ofcourse,officialsexpendenormousamountsofenergytounderstandPresident

Obama,despitetheassurancestheyhavereceivedfromEmanuel,Ross,andothers.


14/17


Not longago, thechiefof Israelimilitary intelligence,MajorGeneralAmosYadlin,paida

secret visit to Chicago to meet with Lester Crown, the billionaire whose family owns a

significantportion

of

General

Dynamics,

the

military

contractor.

Crown

[]

I

share

with

theIsraelisthefeelingthatwecertainlyhavethemilitarycapabilityandthatwehavetohave

thewilltouseit.TheriseofIranisnotinthebestinterestoftheU.S.'

I support thepresident,Crown said.But Iwish [administrationofficials]werea little

moreoutgoing in theway theyhave talked. Iwould feelmorecomfortable if Iknew that

theyhadthewilltousemilitaryforce,asa lastresort.Youcannotthreatensomeoneasa

bluff.Therehastobeawilltodoit.

Severalofficialsevenasked if I consideredObama tobeanantiSemite. Ianswered this

questionby

quoting

Abner

Mikva,

the

former

congressman,

federal

judge,

and

mentor

to

Obama,who famouslysaid in2008,I thinkwhen this isallover,peoplearegoing tosay

thatBarackObamaisthefirstJewishpresident.IexplainedthatObamahasbeensaturated

withtheworkofJewishwriters,legalscholars,andthinkers,andthatalargenumberofhis

friends, supporters, and aides are Jewish. But philoSemitism does not necessarily equal

sympathyforNetanyahusLikudPartycertainlynotamongAmericanJews,whoare, like

thepresidenttheyvotedforinoverwhelmingnumbers,generallysupportiveofatwostate

solution,anddubiousaboutJewishsettlementoftheWestBank.

RahmEmanuel suggested that theadministration is trying to threadaneedle:providing

unshakeablesupportforIsrael;protectingitfromtheconsequencesofanIraniannuclear

bomb;butpushingittowardcompromisewiththePalestinians.[]hepastsixIsraeliprime

ministersincludingNetanyahu,whoduringhis firstterm inthe late1990s, tohisfathers

chagrin, compromised with the Palestiniansto buttress his case. Rabin, Peres,

Netanyahu,Barak,Sharon,Olmerteveryoneofthempursuedsomeformofanegotiated

settlement,whichwouldhavebeeninIsraelsownstrategicinterest,hesaid.Therehave

beenplentyofother threatswhile successive Israeli governmentshavepursued apeace

process.

Israelshould

consider

carefully

whether

a

military

strike

would

be

worth

the

trouble

it

would unleash. Im not sure that given the time line, whatever the time line is, that

whatever they did, they wouldnt stop the nuclear program, he said. They would be

postponing.


15/17


ItwasthenthatIrealizedthat,onsomesubjects,theIsraelisandAmericansarestilltalking

pasteachother.

INMYCONVERSATIONSwithformerIsraeliairforcegeneralsandstrategists,theprevalent

tonewascautious.ManypeopleIinterviewedwereready,onconditionofanonymity,tosay

whyanattackonIransnuclearsiteswouldbedifficultforIsrael.AndsomeIsraeligenerals,

liketheirAmericancolleagues,questionedthevery ideaofanattack.Our timewouldbe

better spent lobbying Barack Obama to do this, rather than trying this ourselves, one

generaltoldme.Weareverygoodatthiskindofoperation,but it isabigstretchforus.

TheAmericanscandothiswithaminimumofdifficulty,bycomparison.This istoobigfor

us.

Theseplanes

would

have

to

return

home

quickly,

in

part

because

Israeli

intelligence

believes that Iranwould immediatelyorderHezbollah to fire rockets at Israeli cities, and

IsraeliairforceresourceswouldbeneededtohuntHezbollahrocketteams.

in the event of a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran, his mission would be to combat

Hezbollah rocket forces. []tokeepHezbollah in reserveuntil Irancancross thenuclear

threshold.

Hezbollahlostalotofhismen.[] Thatisonereasonwehavehadfouryearsofquiet.

WhathaschangedinfouryearsisthatHezbollahhasincreaseditsmissilecapability,butwe

haveincreased

our

capabilities

as

well.

He

concluded

by

saying,

in

reference

to

a

potential

IsraelistrikeonIran,OurreadinessmeansthatIsraelhasfreedomofaction.

America,too,wouldlookcomplicitinanIsraeliattack,evenifithadnotbeenforewarned.

Theassumptionoften,butnotalways,correctthatIsraelactsonlywiththeapprovalof

theUnitedStatesisafeatureoflifeintheMiddleEast,anditisonetheIsraelissaytheyare

taking into account. I spoke with several Israeli officials who are grappling with this

question,amongothers:what ifAmerican intelligence learnsaboutIsraeli intentionshours

beforethescheduled launchofanattack?It isanightmareforus,oneoftheseofficials

told

me.

What

if

President

Obama

calls

up

Bibi

and

says,

We

know

what

youre

doing.

Stop

immediately.Dowestop?Wemighthaveto.Adecisionhasbeenmadethatwecantlieto

theAmericansaboutourplans.Wedontwanttoinformthembeforehand.Thisisfortheir

sakeandforours.Sowhatdowedo?Thesearethehardquestions.

ManyIsraelisthinktheIraniansarebuildingAuschwitz.Wehavetoletthemknowthatwe

havedestroyedAuschwitz,orwehavetoletthemknowthatwetriedandfailed.


16/17


Thereare,ofcourse, Israeli leaderswhobelieve thatattacking Iran is too risky. []We

dontwantpoliticianstoputusinabadpositionbecauseofthewordShoah,onegeneral

said.

Afterstaringat thephotographof the Israeliairforce flyoverofAuschwitzmore thana

dozendifferenttimesinmorethanadozendifferentoffices,Icametoseethecontradiction

atitscore.IftheJewishphysicistswhocreatedIsraelsnucleararsenalcouldsomehowhave

rippedaholeinthespacetimecontinuumandsentasquadronoffightersbackto1942,

BenjaminNetanyahufeels,forreasonsofnationalsecurity,thatifsanctionsfail,hewillbe

forcedtotakeaction.ButanIsraeliattackonIransnuclearfacilities,successfulornot,may

causeIrantoredouble itseffortsthistimewithameasureof internationalsympathyto

createa

nuclear

arsenal.

And

it

could

cause

chaos

for

America

in

the

Middle

East.

[]Peres

seestheIraniannuclearprogramaspotentiallycatastrophic,[]WhenIaskedifhebelieved

inamilitaryoption,hesaid,WhyshouldIdeclaresomethinglikethat?

Basedonmonthsofinterviews,Ihavecometobelievethattheadministrationknowsitisa

nearcertaintythatIsraelwillactagainstIransoonifnothingornooneelsestopsthenuclear

program; []Earlier this year, I agreed with those, including many Israelis, Arabsand

Iranianswhobelieve there isnochance thatObamawouldever resort to force to stop

Iran; I still dont believe there is a great chance hewill takemilitary action in the near

futureforonething,thePentagonisnotablyunenthusiasticabouttheidea.ButObamais

clearlyseizedbytheissue.[]DenisMcDonough,thechiefofstaffoftheNationalSecurity

Council,toldme,WhatyouseeinIranistheintersectionofanumberofleadingprioritiesof

thepresident,whoseesaseriousthreattotheglobalnonproliferationregime,athreatof

cascadingnuclearactivities inavolatileregion,andathreattoaclosefriendoftheUnited

States,Israel.Ithinkyouseetheseveralstreamscomingtogether,whichaccountsforwhyit

issoimportanttous.

When IaskedPereswhathe thoughtofNetanyahuseffort tomake Israelscase to the

Obamaadministration,heresponded[]hiscountryshouldknowitsplace,andthatitwas

upto

the

American

president,

and

only

the

American

president,

to

decide

in

the

end

how

besttosafeguardthefutureoftheWest.Thestorywasabouthismentor,DavidBenGurion.

ShortlyafterJohnF.Kennedywaselectedpresident,BenGurionmethimattheWaldorf

AstoriainNewYork,Perestoldme.Afterthemeeting,KennedyaccompaniedBenGurion

to theelevatorandsaid, Mr.PrimeMinister, Iwant to tellyou, Iwaselectedbecauseof


17/17


yourpeople,sowhatcanIdoforyouinreturn?BenGurionwasinsultedbythequestion.He

said, Whatyoucando isbeagreatpresidentof theUnitedStates.Youmustunderstand

thatto

have

a

great

president

of

the

United

States

is

a

great

event.

PereswentontoexplainwhathesawasIsraelstrueinterest.Wedontwanttowinover

thepresident,hesaid.Wewantthepresidenttowin.

JeffreyGoldberg

JeffreyMarkGoldberg isanAmericanIsraeli journalist. He isoneofthewritersandstaff

journalists on The Atlantic journal. Previously heworked for TheNew Yorker. Goldberg

mainlywriteson internationalsubjects,preferring theMiddleEastandAfrica. Somehave

called

him

the

most

influential

journalist

blogger

on

matters

dealing

with

Israel.

FidelCastroRuz

August25,2010

6:18p.m.

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The Way I See It! - Imperialism’s Tinder Box is Full: No Nuclear Attack on Iran

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