The Weather and Climate Authority

Prepared by:

PAGASA-DOSTCLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

(APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2018)

CLIMATE OUTLOOK

100th Climate Outlook Forum,

Hive Hotel, Quezon City

22 March 2018

Updated: 22 March 2018

2

• ENSO Updates and Outlook

• Climate Outlook (APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2018)

• Rainfall

• Temperature

• Dry day forecast

• Tropical Cyclone Frequency

• Temperature Extremes

• Summary

C

O

N

T

E

N

T

S

2017-2018 LA NIŃA EVENT

• Late September 2017 – The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) at the central and eastern tropical Pacific started to cool; PAGASA continuously monitored possible development of La Niña;

• Mid - October 2017 – (65-70% chance for a weak La Niña to develop)

• Late November 2017 – Weak La Niña developing

• December 2017 – Weak La Niña in place

• Nov.2017-Jan. 2018 – recorded lowest (coolest) running 3-month SST (-1.0 SSTA, weak to moderate La Niña threshold)

• February 2018 – La Niña continue in the tropical Pacific as reflected by below average (≤ -0.5 to -1.0°C) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs)

• March 2018 – La Niña is weakening; SSTAs still below average

2018/3/23

Advisory/Press Statement Issuances for the current 2017-2018

La NiñaDate Issuances

October 3, 2017 • Monthly Weather Situation & Outlook (Cool ENSO-neutral conditions) regular issue

October 20, 2017 • Press Statement – La Niña Watch (65%-70% possible development of weak La Niña in late November 2017.

November 6, 2017 • Monthly Weather Situation & Outlook (La Niña Watch) (indications: higher chance of strong convective activity and tropical cyclone occurrences, therefore above average rainfall likely)

November 22, 2017 • Press Statement – Weak La Niña Developing (indications: likely to bring above average rainfall in different parts of the country in the next several months)

December 4, 2017 • issued La Niña Advisory No. 1(indications: advised all concerned agencies to take precautionary measures to mitigate its potential impacts)

January 4, 2018 • issued La Niña Advisory No. 2

February 7, 2018 • issued La Niña Advisory No. 3

March 5, 2018 • issued La Niña Advisory No. 4

INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS SUMMARY

CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI), USAAs of : 19 March 2018

• a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.

• ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

ENSO ADVISORIESGLOBAL

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 13 March 2018

• La Niña ends, El Niño-SouthernOscillation returns to neutral;

• ENSO Alert System Status: INACTIVE

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -JapanAs of: 09 March 2018

• It is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

• It is likely that La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring (MAM)(70%); ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (JJA)

(70%) (based from SSTA averaged over NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W)

APEC Climate Center,Busan, S. KoreaAs of : 26 February 2018

• below normal temperature anomaly across the eastern equatorial Pacific with a weak negative El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) As of: 14 December 2017 (updatedquarterly)

• La Niña conditions are 70-80% likely to continue into the first quarter of 2018.

• La Niña is likely to be weak (0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average), with a slight chance for moderate strength (1.0 to 1.5 degrees Celsius below average).

PAGASA: La Niña is weakening in the tropical Pacific, with likely transition to ENSO-neutral during March-April-May 2018 season; ENSO-neutral onwards.

2018/3/23

Atmospheric IndicatorSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The 30-day (SOI) to 11

February is +3.2 (90-day value +0.9), within the neutral range

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Source: BOM, Australia

Neutral

La Niña

El Niño

As of: 13 March 2018

Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information

about the current state of the climate. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly

because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes.

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook

Updated: 19 March 2018

La Niña is likely through Feb-Mar-April season, with a transition to ENSO-neutral

expected during the spring (MAM).

Based from model output + expert judgment Based from model output only

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume

2018/3/23

FORECAST SST ANOMALY MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS

Average Dynamical Models -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2

Average Statistical models -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2

All models -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2

Issued: 19 March 2018

SST Outlook

Most models in the IRI/CPC

plume predict La Niña will

decay and return to ENSO-

neutral during the NH

spring (MAM) 2018

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-

expertise/climate/forecasts/enso

/current/?enso_tab=enso-

sst_table

2018/3/23 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

these are

participating models

in PAGASA’s

CONSENSUS

forecast including

NMME

10

LA NIÑA

ADVISORY

PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status is

LA NIÑA PERSISTS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC and started to weaken#4

WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD

(APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2018)

(APRIL – SEPTEMBER)

Transition: NE to Southwest (SW) Monsoon

Easterlies

Local Thunderstorms

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)

Ridge of High Pressure Area

Tropical Cyclones

2018/3/23

2018/3/23

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

about of our Rainfall Maps..

April 2018

Forecast (mm) % NormalNormal (mm)

(1981-2010)

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST

1 14 53 11

No. of provinces

likely to

experience:


May 2018


(1981-2010)


0 0 30 49

No. of provinces

likely to

experience:


June 2018


(1981-2010)


0 0 69 10

No. of provinces

likely to

experience:


July 2018


(1981-2010)


No. of provinces

likely to

experience: 6 38 10 25


August 2018


(1981-2010)


0 1 64 14

No. of provinces

likely to

experience:


September 2018


(1981-2010)


0 0 72 7

No. of provinces

likely to

experience:


Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Condition (based on recent conditions):

April – Sept. 2018

PROVINCE APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

ABRA 64.2 115.3 91.6 202.2 101.4 90.7

BENGUET 86.9 124.2 91.2 192.3 104.9 84.4

IFUGAO 78.2 125.8 97.2 194.1 110.3 95.7

KALINGA 72.6 117.3 94.6 201.1 101.6 93.7

APAYAO 64.1 108.2 82.9 207.4 101.9 93.9

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 74.8 122.1 96.5 200.5 104.7 93.3

REGION I

ILOCOS NORTE 42.7 106.6 85.3 210.5 105.6 90.2

ILOCOS SUR 65.5 119.4 94.4 185.6 101.4 87.9

LA UNION 86.6 122.3 92.8 175.7 103.9 82.0

PANGASINAN 95.9 125.0 92.9 180.3 110.9 90.9

REGION II

BATANES 104.2 84.6 90.3 391.1 118.3 96.7

CAGAYAN 67.3 108.3 86.5 192.1 102.2 96.7

ISABELA 79.6 122.5 105.6 146.7 116.5 103.2

NUEVA VIZCAYA 72.5 127.1 96.4 174.9 116.1 95.2

QUIRINO 86.5 125.4 107.5 121.9 128.7 102.8

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)

BATAAN 43.2 140.4 99.2 190.0 119.9 104.2

BULACAN 54.1 126.4 109.5 90.0 96.6 105.3

NUEVA ECIJA 67.9 127.9 99.9 106.3 96.5 102.2

PAMPANGA 64.9 129.6 100.0 143.3 98.6 105.1

TARLAC 103.6 128.0 94.5 165.1 99.7 100.8

ZAMBALES 94.9 130.5 97.4 194.3 111.9 97.2

AURORA 85.6 120.0 114.1 60.5 125.1 101.9

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

METRO MANILA 93.5 131.9 110.1 120.9 118.2 103.6

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

BATANGAS 34.1 146.5 107.0 102.0 126.9 108.2

CAVITE 131.8 145.1 105.3 143.4 132.3 104.4

LAGUNA 100.6 136.8 115.4 70.4 115.2 101.6

RIZAL 88.6 128.2 116.8 80.5 112.0 101.4

QUEZON 85.3 122.5 125.1 53.1 101.9 110.7

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

MARINDUQUE 100.2 125.5 117.1 64.8 101.1 126.1

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 109.0 152.4 109.2 91.8 121.2 116.6

ORIENTAL MINDORO 118.4 143.9 108.3 74.7 116.8 120.1

ROMBLON 108.9 126.6 115.0 66.1 107.4 129.8

PALAWAN 115.6 151.0 111.6 96.0 121.9 113.1

REGION V (BICOL)

ALBAY 107.9 123.3 120.2 70.7 112.2 108.4

CAMARINES NORTE 117.3 113.2 134.2 94.7 93.5 114.6

CAMARINES SUR 108.8 117.8 126.5 87.8 104.5 108.5

CATANDUANES 82.0 121.3 119.8 83.4 94.2 112.3

MASBATE 102.5 132.4 122.0 108.4 96.7 130.7

SORSOGON 107.4 126.0 121.0 76.4 106.9 115.8

FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal

(APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2018) as of Mar 20, 2018

PROVINCE APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

AKLAN 110.5 146.9 114.7 108.5 120.3 105.6

ANTIQUE 112.6 154.9 117.1 217.2 120.2 106.5

CAPIZ 113.4 150.4 115.6 127.9 123.2 98.0

GUIMARAS 96.6 160.3 119.2 221.1 121.9 99.8

ILOILO 108.7 157.0 117.2 200.4 122.9 99.0

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 105.2 145.6 115.1 87.7 112.7 99.4

REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

NEGROS ORIENTAL 118.7 142.0 112.4 61.4 107.8 100.1

BOHOL 126.8 140.3 128.8 33.4 107.1 103.2

CEBU 115.6 145.8 113.9 43.1 100.7 99.2

SIQUIJOR 133.4 134.1 115.7 58.1 96.5 103.1

REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BILIRAN 114.1 126.8 110.4 75.7 78.9 118.5

EASTERN SAMAR 89.8 127.4 108.7 50.3 171.3 117.6

LEYTE 117.3 132.5 115.0 46.3 100.0 107.1

NORTHERN SAMAR 110.2 120.6 117.0 64.3 116.9 120.0

SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 111.6 122.9 109.1 63.2 125.3 120.5

SOUTHERN LEYTE 106.0 128.8 131.4 47.4 120.3 111.2

REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 124.3 117.2 105.4 68.5 102.5 111.7

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 120.5 114.9 104.5 57.7 99.3 111.6

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 116.6 117.8 105.3 60.3 100.8 110.5

REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

BUKIDNON 111.0 113.2 99.9 54.8 100.5 105.8

CAMIGUIN 119.2 123.5 124.8 38.2 104.2 109.1

LANAO DEL NORTE 120.4 110.9 101.4 52.0 95.4 107.4

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 126.0 110.2 103.6 61.5 98.8 109.0

MISAMIS ORIENTAL 123.6 117.4 108.5 44.7 104.6 108.5

REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

COMPOSTELA VALLEY 108.1 111.7 103.8 39.1 92.6 97.3

DAVAO 103.8 111.1 101.1 44.4 94.8 98.1

DAVAO DEL SUR 107.7 106.6 96.9 40.3 99.4 96.7

DAVAO ORIENTAL 112.4 110.3 105.4 38.6 93.8 98.1

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO 121.2 107.9 94.3 37.8 102.1 95.0

COTABATO 110.8 106.9 99.0 50.7 93.3 101.0

SARANGANI 120.5 108.3 93.6 36.0 104.0 94.5

SULTAN KUDARAT 117.2 108.3 98.9 44.4 96.0 99.0

REGION XIII- CARAGA

AGUSAN DEL NORTE 121.3 116.9 117.2 50.2 102.3 107.6

AGUSAN DEL SUR 116.4 113.9 106.7 46.5 102.2 104.6

SURIGAO DEL NORTE 98.8 113.1 126.7 70.4 81.1 113.5

SURIGAO DEL SUR 116.7 113.1 113.4 48.3 94.4 107.0

ARMM

BASILAN 119.1 126.3 108.6 50.9 101.5 121.6

MAGUINDANAO 105.6 107.4 100.6 49.2 90.5 100.8

LANAO DEL SUR 116.7 109.9 100.1 53.3 92.7 105.9

SULU 117.0 126.8 106.9 74.6 103.5 108.4

FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal

(APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2018) as of Mar 20, 2018

PROVINCE

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEANABRA 10.4 64.1 43.8 197.8 260.0 225.2 203.3 317.7 261.8 618.0 1258.0 901.9 405.6 663.8 545.2 288.2 358.1 330.3

BENGUET 75.8 97.0 88.3 283.6 347.9 317.3 304.4 366.9 336.9 1208.3 1576.1 1435.7 693.9 919.1 801.1 364.2 390.0 380.2

IFUGAO 59.8 84.3 70.0 225.0 302.5 264.6 177.5 320.0 246.7 427.0 1480.4 896.7 310.9 719.0 500.8 258.8 375.3 320.3

KALINGA 36.8 66.4 57.2 180.1 244.8 211.0 158.5 273.4 201.8 372.2 1037.2 621.7 261.1 574.7 392.8 229.5 330.6 272.7

APAYAO 27.0 60.5 46.4 158.3 202.4 184.2 151.3 219.1 184.0 410.1 764.1 572.0 253.2 487.4 369.8 244.9 324.3 286.6

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 54.4 78.0 66.1 211.5 286.8 247.6 172.0 326.0 247.7 435.7 1367.4 913.9 307.3 707.0 510.4 248.2 370.6 312.8

REGION I

ILOCOS NORTE 6.1 44.3 21.5 190.8 226.2 208.7 205.4 281.9 237.8 704.0 942.8 840.1 447.8 618.8 534.3 315.3 353.7 337.2

ILOCOS SUR 7.3 85.8 44.6 218.9 316.7 262.4 269.9 363.4 324.5 895.9 1575.1 1251.3 563.6 832.3 684.1 340.5 390.2 365.5

LA UNION 61.5 93.8 79.4 289.3 330.5 312.2 344.8 379.1 367.5 1140.5 1561.4 1406.4 757.7 876.7 820.3 375.5 390.2 385.5

PANGASINAN 27.1 81.9 58.0 267.7 316.9 286.4 262.4 419.3 351.7 683.5 1219.8 974.7 512.4 827.9 695.6 334.6 422.6 378.5

REGION II

BATANES 48.0 63.5 55.4 185.4 192.9 189.2 218.5 223.4 221.0 265.8 2277.2 1172.5 415.0 430.2 423.4 290.0 312.1 302.6

CAGAYAN 21.8 66.2 42.9 146.8 194.2 169.1 142.5 227.2 158.9 0.0 773.1 398.1 194.7 456.4 271.1 223.6 321.0 251.0

ISABELA 35.6 148.9 73.4 177.9 271.1 227.0 155.6 233.6 186.6 162.3 705.2 311.6 246.2 425.7 282.3 225.3 307.5 267.0

NUEVA VIZCAYA 35.9 151.1 69.5 263.2 316.7 287.0 224.3 311.8 260.7 318.8 1461.9 928.6 280.6 747.1 501.4 283.2 373.9 328.2

QUIRINO 65.8 167.7 116.1 257.0 292.4 277.5 208.6 248.4 232.1 160.4 684.8 381.4 266.0 413.2 314.6 275.6 311.2 289.7


BATAAN 13.9 43.0 30.3 223.9 252.4 240.4 308.8 386.3 350.2 765.7 1292.0 1046.5 635.8 799.3 722.4 379.4 466.6 436.2

BULACAN 0.0 52.7 14.5 225.4 250.5 240.6 276.3 332.9 302.2 164.9 913.5 459.5 299.3 658.3 451.2 374.7 447.6 410.8

NUEVA ECIJA 7.3 99.6 37.1 245.6 292.8 258.0 239.6 305.1 260.4 78.1 1050.7 455.5 222.9 594.6 376.6 305.3 430.0 347.0

PAMPANGA 11.7 66.6 39.5 237.1 263.8 248.7 288.7 386.6 335.0 450.5 1363.0 896.6 411.8 788.7 622.6 409.8 473.6 448.4

TARLAC 47.0 73.4 64.0 250.7 283.2 268.2 272.4 413.8 335.1 597.3 1521.3 996.3 448.2 902.3 663.3 364.8 467.9 417.1

ZAMBALES 27.2 55.9 42.7 250.3 293.0 275.2 369.5 447.4 410.4 1063.5 1741.2 1446.1 743.4 1020.9 858.5 406.6 491.2 462.2

AURORA 20.5 208.9 152.5 249.1 306.3 276.2 220.7 302.8 255.2 49.4 323.3 174.7 202.3 312.1 262.1 273.2 377.7 296.2


METRO MANILA 11.9 45.2 27.7 201.7 232.0 218.3 279.7 307.7 295.9 515.7 676.5 582.4 479.8 598.8 544.5 333.3 411.8 382.0

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

BATANGAS 34.0 116.9 71.0 189.6 229.8 209.2 251.1 290.0 260.9 149.1 655.4 323.0 206.6 570.4 342.7 256.8 345.1 276.6

CAVITE 5.9 58.1 30.6 194.5 220.1 204.9 264.8 292.4 277.9 408.2 676.4 555.7 402.1 596.6 508.5 289.2 367.9 326.4

LAGUNA 17.2 119.0 49.9 194.3 220.2 204.4 254.9 301.6 277.4 108.0 567.0 308.0 223.0 519.3 318.4 262.1 364.6 305.7

RIZAL 33.8 118.3 66.2 202.1 238.7 223.1 279.6 313.8 303.8 284.7 553.9 422.8 302.6 546.9 422.1 305.4 402.8 369.2

QUEZON 14.2 170.6 109.3 170.8 255.1 207.6 244.2 318.7 269.2 0.0 401.4 187.3 120.0 376.6 198.6 257.7 386.2 314.1


MARINDUQUE 87.1 107.7 96.1 197.8 210.1 203.8 249.0 273.4 257.8 169.1 238.9 196.2 160.8 215.9 182.5 309.5 341.0 327.2

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 22.1 108.7 62.4 238.1 272.4 257.3 288.7 413.1 348.4 217.1 615.0 348.3 316.0 572.9 427.4 298.9 448.5 380.2

ORIENTAL MINDORO 36.1 135.9 87.4 227.6 257.6 246.2 270.2 384.9 320.5 169.4 442.6 251.9 233.1 509.6 337.9 275.6 425.0 355.5

ROMBLON 68.1 100.0 83.6 175.2 220.1 193.2 253.4 321.4 283.4 162.8 270.7 205.4 190.4 318.5 244.7 305.1 366.9 344.5

PALAWAN 35.2 78.8 70.6 186.1 317.2 222.3 199.2 456.9 282.2 127.5 765.6 300.8 235.7 646.1 339.1 214.6 490.1 298.9

REGION V (BICOL)

ALBAY 131.5 188.0 166.8 192.5 211.7 200.7 247.7 269.1 258.8 145.3 257.4 216.8 190.5 259.7 239.1 259.7 309.0 289.6

CAMARINES NORTE 113.7 174.2 150.0 162.6 201.5 175.3 246.3 261.5 254.4 197.1 439.3 367.2 121.3 199.0 154.7 289.6 306.7 298.9

CAMARINES SUR 117.3 162.9 133.6 169.6 198.0 184.0 249.5 270.9 265.0 228.9 422.8 321.3 159.2 236.9 204.4 274.9 307.2 289.2

CATANDUANES 108.5 121.9 113.2 187.6 191.5 189.3 260.5 267.7 264.3 186.5 265.8 222.1 146.6 172.0 156.4 262.5 276.1 268.7

MASBATE 53.6 118.6 83.9 177.1 192.1 182.6 213.4 256.0 223.7 218.6 363.4 326.3 155.0 234.1 181.9 258.0 318.6 294.3

SORSOGON 102.1 182.5 144.9 182.7 206.6 194.2 223.3 254.6 240.6 144.8 264.2 206.1 179.0 250.2 214.2 259.9 297.8 278.2

APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

PROVINCE

REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEANAKLAN 74.3 87.2 82.5 211.3 230.7 219.5 298.5 335.3 312.9 195.4 462.7 297.2 264.3 346.8 304.2 230.0 346.0 269.5

ANTIQUE 50.7 83.8 73.4 219.5 252.4 228.3 310.4 378.0 341.6 260.8 747.5 592.6 296.5 476.6 391.9 263.5 411.7 294.5

CAPIZ 72.2 92.6 80.4 201.3 225.8 214.0 284.9 338.0 317.2 180.2 552.9 329.3 245.3 381.8 315.3 228.3 266.5 239.5

GUIMARAS 73.5 119.8 88.8 220.1 225.5 222.4 374.6 383.2 380.3 577.4 689.2 644.0 443.5 482.7 467.9 308.3 333.4 323.0

ILOILO 60.8 108.7 75.0 192.8 229.0 217.5 255.6 378.3 347.5 194.4 749.6 535.1 217.4 485.4 396.4 233.5 320.3 273.2

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 82.3 163.4 117.6 178.4 236.7 207.6 247.2 382.9 329.1 199.2 547.3 328.8 240.4 448.3 338.9 228.9 337.1 296.4

REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

NEGROS ORIENTAL 73.0 155.6 97.2 140.3 220.9 174.0 185.0 354.3 246.3 79.9 325.0 165.3 119.1 366.7 220.0 153.1 321.0 220.3

BOHOL 65.5 111.3 94.3 130.0 147.5 136.5 166.4 195.0 173.2 37.0 76.2 51.4 98.2 219.5 151.0 137.1 210.4 170.0

CEBU 53.5 116.6 87.2 144.3 191.5 169.1 182.2 274.5 228.5 57.6 219.7 114.2 123.9 247.4 180.2 151.7 256.4 207.3

SIQUIJOR 81.8 100.3 91.8 136.6 138.9 137.8 171.4 180.8 176.1 63.3 83.5 74.8 108.2 123.0 115.8 138.7 150.7 145.0

REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BILIRAN 122.1 138.5 129.3 182.7 186.3 184.3 211.7 217.9 215.3 176.9 257.7 207.1 150.5 161.3 156.6 267.7 299.7 283.5

EASTERN SAMAR 122.5 146.9 135.8 174.6 244.0 213.2 209.6 242.3 230.0 60.6 179.6 127.2 166.6 339.2 266.1 194.1 286.2 239.7

LEYTE 67.6 150.7 124.0 135.6 198.8 174.0 177.2 216.0 198.2 50.7 234.6 97.3 146.9 244.6 174.2 193.7 280.4 216.1

NORTHERN SAMAR 98.7 161.8 144.4 176.5 203.7 185.1 215.4 244.0 236.4 122.0 294.7 155.7 162.2 258.7 202.5 247.1 290.0 270.4

SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 110.7 151.2 144.1 178.0 226.8 197.5 209.6 240.4 227.9 62.2 279.3 165.9 156.8 293.3 214.8 194.9 305.5 274.7

SOUTHERN LEYTE 66.4 156.8 96.4 131.6 162.9 145.9 177.1 196.0 186.2 60.5 127.6 84.8 149.3 256.1 211.0 201.9 227.1 219.0

REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 87.6 153.0 112.0 141.7 170.3 156.8 185.2 272.7 243.7 86.9 228.0 167.0 162.9 248.8 209.4 193.0 252.0 222.8

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 84.4 125.1 101.5 133.8 182.9 162.1 180.7 277.5 244.5 79.8 178.1 138.0 147.7 223.7 190.7 195.7 237.4 216.4

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 94.1 108.4 99.5 151.3 167.7 161.0 205.1 262.6 239.5 109.4 170.5 141.0 177.2 221.1 201.5 204.0 227.8 216.1

REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

BUKIDNON 69.6 135.4 117.8 169.5 230.0 214.2 222.4 304.5 272.2 110.7 191.2 166.8 196.1 303.1 261.4 222.0 304.2 282.4

CAMIGUIN 131.0 138.7 135.6 141.9 148.5 145.0 179.1 184.3 182.3 62.5 74.1 67.8 151.6 159.8 153.5 185.0 192.2 187.2

LANAO DEL NORTE 78.5 129.7 104.0 172.2 201.1 184.2 245.2 285.5 266.7 111.0 158.4 124.3 185.7 243.0 201.3 219.2 282.7 239.2

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 100.9 143.1 119.0 146.9 175.2 162.0 225.7 275.1 254.4 126.5 164.4 148.0 170.6 211.0 193.1 198.5 236.7 223.0

MISAMIS ORIENTAL 69.5 137.9 106.2 152.1 186.8 167.4 186.2 253.9 217.0 70.0 143.7 101.9 136.1 223.5 184.8 170.2 268.8 221.4

REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

COMPOSTELA VALLEY 110.9 219.8 144.2 200.1 223.9 211.8 203.9 261.2 229.2 44.3 129.2 69.1 145.6 219.6 167.7 165.6 241.4 189.5

DAVAO 71.8 150.5 124.9 205.3 227.6 219.5 207.9 282.7 251.7 66.5 165.5 108.9 167.3 260.4 213.4 174.5 274.6 223.3

DAVAO DEL SUR 57.5 133.9 99.6 134.1 230.7 188.6 133.2 285.3 204.7 43.5 161.2 85.3 114.0 262.9 187.1 116.3 270.7 175.7

DAVAO ORIENTAL 116.1 243.0 144.2 169.9 224.5 200.7 185.8 248.1 209.3 44.3 89.2 58.6 144.1 171.5 152.8 165.0 206.3 174.9

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO 72.0 128.5 105.2 118.8 192.3 155.9 130.2 225.9 168.7 36.1 85.7 56.3 98.3 172.4 132.6 106.3 183.0 135.5

COTABATO 78.3 136.4 124.4 193.8 236.5 222.8 223.8 306.3 282.9 92.8 172.3 135.7 186.6 270.5 237.1 183.6 290.3 247.9

SARANGANI 73.0 127.5 99.8 123.3 168.0 138.8 127.9 185.8 142.6 36.1 69.0 45.6 102.4 143.7 116.9 106.8 157.4 119.2

SULTAN KUDARAT 106.2 134.4 126.2 166.0 242.6 189.8 181.3 295.2 222.8 61.7 114.5 83.7 136.9 211.2 164.4 145.2 244.9 183.3

REGION XIII- CARAGA

AGUSAN DEL NORTE 134.2 163.3 142.9 149.7 186.6 165.1 178.7 223.9 199.1 68.3 112.6 81.3 92.7 183.7 123.7 152.1 210.8 168.1

AGUSAN DEL SUR 126.9 369.4 176.0 166.9 234.7 208.4 196.2 272.7 244.3 68.2 171.8 106.4 100.5 271.9 186.1 152.9 281.6 214.6

SURIGAO DEL NORTE 142.3 183.7 163.3 144.5 176.3 158.6 180.4 209.2 192.0 95.1 147.1 128.0 91.8 122.4 102.1 157.1 213.3 186.6

SURIGAO DEL SUR 137.3 384.3 213.7 163.1 239.5 200.9 190.3 257.1 229.7 71.3 113.2 87.8 92.9 174.6 139.4 153.2 212.6 183.4

ARMM

BASILAN 86.8 106.0 94.0 139.2 154.7 144.4 181.4 202.0 186.0 81.3 152.6 92.5 156.8 190.1 165.5 194.3 213.2 197.4

MAGUINDANAO 116.7 136.0 130.9 186.7 243.1 219.9 214.3 304.7 275.1 83.8 144.1 108.2 170.1 235.9 198.4 172.7 273.1 228.4

LANAO DEL SUR 97.9 135.8 126.5 180.5 225.8 206.3 254.8 304.8 287.0 110.6 173.5 139.7 190.5 266.0 225.6 231.7 294.1 264.9

SULU 94.2 108.2 97.9 152.1 174.5 165.6 199.5 249.0 229.9 125.4 245.5 203.6 175.5 245.2 217.4 199.1 237.7 223.5

MAY JUNE SEPTEMBERJULY AUGUSTAPRIL

FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)

REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL

ARMM 85.7 136.0 119.9 112.2 139.2 243.1 199.7 113.6 181.4 304.7 263.5 102.5 81.3 296.6 135.5 55.8 156.8 313.6 207.9 94.6 174.6 294.1 236.6 105.9

CAR 10.4 97.0 59.1 72.0 158.3 347.9 234.9 117.6 151.3 365.9 241.5 91.5 370.0 1576.1 858.2 200.3 253.2 919.1 506.6 103.7 229.3 390.1 314.7 92.1

NCR 11.3 45.2 27.4 94.9 201.8 231.3 217.6 132.1 279.7 307.3 295.5 110.1 522.5 668.9 582.7 121.3 485.2 598.8 544.7 118.7 333.8 412.7 380.6 103.6

Region 1 6.1 94.1 47.8 74.2 190.8 332.4 263.5 118.6 205.3 418.4 317.1 91.1 676.5 1575.1 1043.1 189.0 447.8 879.5 664.1 106.7 315.3 421.7 365.5 89.1

Region 2 21.8 169.1 67.2 75.3 146.8 315.9 222.3 118.5 142.5 311.3 194.2 97.9 0.0 2277.2 451.2 165.3 194.7 741.0 317.5 113.0 223.6 373.8 274.0 99.7

Region 3 0.0 208.9 55.2 76.5 223.9 306.3 260.7 127.9 223.8 447.4 314.0 102.0 49.4 1741.2 738.9 129.4 202.3 1020.9 537.1 105.2 273.2 491.2 392.9 101.9

Region 4-A 5.9 170.6 84.0 82.0 156.4 255.1 208.1 131.5 195.4 318.7 271.9 118.0 0.0 671.7 276.8 73.9 120.0 596.6 284.2 111.9 213.7 401.2 310.1 107.7

Region 4-B 21.9 135.9 73.0 113.8 175.2 317.2 232.0 148.1 199.2 456.9 302.6 110.9 127.5 765.6 295.5 89.1 161.9 646.1 348.8 119.5 214.6 490.1 329.7 116.3

Region 5 53.6 188.0 129.3 106.2 162.6 211.7 186.2 122.4 213.4 270.9 250.1 124.7 143.8 439.3 293.3 89.5 121.3 259.7 192.9 101.4 252.1 318.6 289.0 115.7

Region 6 51.1 163.4 93.1 108.3 178.4 252.4 214.9 150.6 247.2 383.2 333.5 116.0 180.2 749.6 417.8 141.8 217.4 485.4 356.8 118.3 228.3 411.6 281.8 100.6

Region 7 53.5 156.7 92.7 120.3 129.9 221.6 160.9 142.6 166.4 354.7 218.0 117.5 37.0 327.7 113.5 47.2 98.2 368.6 184.4 104.9 137.1 321.6 199.8 100.7

Region 8 66.4 161.8 132.9 108.0 131.6 244.0 188.1 126.6 177.1 244.0 218.2 113.6 50.7 294.7 132.5 55.2 146.9 340.0 210.8 125.2 193.7 305.5 246.9 115.4

Region 9 84.4 153.0 106.0 121.5 133.8 182.9 159.5 116.5 180.7 277.5 243.2 105.1 79.8 228.0 151.8 63.1 147.7 248.8 201.2 101.1 193.3 252.0 219.3 111.4

Region 10 69.5 143.1 113.6 116.7 142.0 230.0 194.2 113.3 179.1 304.8 258.8 102.4 62.5 191.2 144.8 53.0 135.3 303.1 228.9 100.0 169.6 304.2 256.8 106.9

Region 11 57.5 243.0 126.0 108.2 134.7 230.7 203.2 109.5 134.1 286.7 220.8 101.5 43.7 166.7 79.3 40.4 113.7 265.8 179.2 95.5 117.1 275.9 188.0 97.5

Region 12 72.0 136.4 116.1 116.6 118.8 237.0 183.9 107.7 127.9 306.3 216.2 96.9 36.1 171.4 87.8 43.5 98.3 266.6 172.9 97.9 106.3 290.1 182.3 97.9

CARAGA 127.2 384.4 177.8 114.8 144.4 239.7 192.4 114.2 178.7 274.2 226.2 113.0 68.2 167.9 101.2 50.8 91.8 260.9 154.2 97.3 152.1 276.9 196.9 107.0

REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL

Luzon 0.0 208.9 73.0 86.7 146.8 347.9 229.3 127.4 142.5 456.9 266.6 105.2 0.0 2277.2 534.7 132.1 120.0 1020.9 395.4 109.7 214.6 491.2 322.9 104.0

Visayas 53.5 163.4 108.2 111.3 130.0 244.0 190.8 139.5 166.4 383.2 260.1 115.5 37.0 749.6 231.7 84.8 98.2 485.4 257.0 117.4 137 346 247.3 106.2

Mindanao 57.5 384.3 128.0 114.9 118.8 243.1 189.3 112.2 127.9 306.3 235.9 103.6 36.1 296.6 113.6 50.2 91.8 313.6 188.7 97.8 106 304.2 210.9 104.0

JUNE

JUNE

MAYAPRIL

APRIL MAY

SEPTEMBER

SEPTEMBER

AUGUST

JULY AUGUST

JULY

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected

Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

NAME Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 0.0 126.5 69.5 42.2 90.2 11.5 73.8

MAX 58.4 186.4 135.8 84.0 107.3 86.2 96.9

MEAN 13.5 144.9 110.3 68.4 100.2 36.8 88.0

%NORMAL 55.8 109.4 120.4 77.3 122.5 50.2 88.2

MIN 235.7 176.3 163.7 244.4 134.2 248.4 299.7

MAX 250.8 208.1 220.2 310.3 137.2 287.6 345.1

MEAN 243.1 190.6 196.7 282.0 135.6 268.5 319.3

%NORMAL 123.6 120.0 111.7 126.8 138.9 128.1 125.2

MIN 295.0 254.4 231.4 208.1 168.4 238.9 304.2

MAX 313.0 268.9 301.9 319.7 172.7 261.5 348.6

MEAN 305.0 263.4 272.6 264.7 170.3 247.8 323.8

%NORMAL 115.4 124.0 100.1 95.2 131.0 97.7 90.4

MIN 168.5 202.4 116.9 564.7 37.2 286.5 1161.6

MAX 419.5 374.4 181.6 1459.6 61.6 977.7 1551.5

MEAN 318.6 280.5 144.2 1048.8 43.3 607.0 1422.9

%NORMAL 60.9 79.1 52.7 192.6 29.6 138.9 198.7

MIN 303.1 191.0 195.1 367.2 141.7 295.7 703.2

MAX 429.3 254.7 271.6 717.2 172.7 541.0 909.1

MEAN 375.3 225.1 228.4 548.4 158.1 414.8 782.2

%NORMAL 95.6 109.2 96.1 112.7 111.1 112.8 106.3

MIN 373.6 285.3 241.0 291.8 166.7 297.6 362.9

MAX 405.4 302.6 300.4 373.6 184.2 331.9 385.7

MEAN 395.6 292.5 268.8 336.9 175.3 313.3 376.5

%NORMAL 103.5 107.8 107.6 94.0 104.4 97.7 85.6

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2018 )

APRIL

MAY

SEPTEMBER

JULY

JUNE

AUGUST

FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER

SELECTED DAM AREAS

in (mm) and (%N) FOR APR- SEP 2018

way below

normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL

AMBUKLAODAM 93.0 88.7 326.5 125.0 328.9 90.0 1482.2 198.6 817.5 105.4 381.4 84.6

ANGATDAM 15.6 67.6 240.7 124.8 305.3 113.7 426.1 79.7 433.2 96.1 405.3 104.3

APUNAN 88.1 85.4 310.6 124.9 323.4 91.8 1513.5 199.7 757.3 106.6 379.9 85.6

BADAYAN 82.0 78.9 295.6 123.9 324.8 92.9 1392.4 190.4 720.9 105.6 374.2 86.3

BINGADAM 92.3 89.6 328.9 125.1 328.1 89.7 1436.8 198.7 824.0 105.3 378.7 84.8

BOBOK 88.1 86.8 318.1 125.6 317.2 90.3 1455.1 201.2 765.7 107.1 376.2 86.0

BUNGA 31.8 61.2 279.9 129.1 255.4 92.9 877.6 176.3 511.1 113.3 326.4 95.1

BUYOC 70.8 78.1 273.3 126.9 252.4 96.6 931.5 192.9 511.5 112.9 328.6 96.1

DANTOR 67.1 76.4 256.0 124.9 238.5 97.5 874.7 202.7 485.7 107.8 313.6 96.0

DUMAYUP 66.4 78.8 277.2 128.3 244.9 97.9 823.6 183.1 469.3 117.8 323.1 98.3

HALONG 73.3 76.5 273.3 124.8 273.4 95.0 1089.9 194.6 578.9 107.8 341.1 92.3

IPODAM 17.4 67.6 236.1 126.9 300.5 110.7 484.9 95.5 477.4 99.7 411.9 105.5

MAGATDAM 63.6 82.8 251.5 128.8 205.4 101.8 550.7 183.7 361.8 115.9 289.9 102.4

MAPUTI 6.0 46.4 245.7 123.1 303.0 115.5 273.0 52.5 347.0 94.0 391.0 103.3

MARIKIT 69.2 48.0 268.1 125.3 249.1 103.5 356.6 97.8 320.9 111.9 303.6 99.4

MATULID 27.0 66.4 240.5 123.6 309.5 116.7 358.9 66.1 392.1 98.8 396.1 103.1

NORZAGARAY 11.6 63.3 237.3 126.6 298.8 110.1 471.5 92.8 461.8 97.2 413.3 105.7

PADALIS 35.9 44.7 267.0 127.8 239.4 98.6 562.5 135.0 388.7 114.0 304.9 98.2

PANTABANGAN DAM 13.9 47.7 248.0 130.4 241.7 97.5 498.6 124.5 405.6 108.8 315.2 99.7

SANROQUEDAM 74.7 95.9 305.7 126.6 312.5 89.0 1161.8 196.3 707.8 108.1 364.3 88.5

STODOMINGO 67.0 79.1 290.7 127.6 266.9 94.4 1154.1 195.4 554.1 115.0 343.5 93.6

TALAGUIO 0.0 49.8 243.4 124.4 299.7 112.7 292.9 61.9 383.2 91.9 402.3 104.7

AUGUSTAPRIL MAY JUNE JULY SEPTEMBER

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS

in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

APRIL - JUNE 2018

CATCHMENT

MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal

Abra RB 8.4 85.6 48.9 66.3 199.6 302.3 236.3 116.7 206.8 344.4 275.3 92.2

Abulug RB 24.5 58.9 43.3 62.3 154.0 200.8 180.6 107.3 149.5 215.4 180.6 81.6

Agno RB 24.1 96.9 66.2 98.3 261.4 347.8 286.9 126.7 260.5 405.5 332.4 92.2

Bicol RB 126.7 185.9 146.1 111.6 167.9 207.6 186.9 118.6 252.5 268.9 262.4 125.8

Bued RB 59.9 95.6 75.4 98.9 281.1 346.6 305.3 125.0 306.6 358.5 335.9 89.6

Cagayan RB 21.8 174.4 68.8 76.3 146.8 310.3 232.3 121.1 142.8 319.7 204.6 98.7

Laoag RB 6.4 46.0 24.6 45.2 192.0 222.8 208.1 108.3 201.0 266.6 234.7 85.5

Pampanga RB 0.0 136.2 36.2 66.0 233.5 292.8 253.6 128.0 238.9 390.8 288.6 101.6

Pasig-Laguna RB 12.8 121.5 42.5 97.7 193.8 240.9 213.0 134.3 255.4 323.5 288.7 113.1

Sinocalan RB 56.1 67.7 63.2 104.7 277.8 293.7 282.6 125.4 302.2 366.8 334.3 90.6

Agus RB 69.7 121.9 89.7 126.8 157.4 206.2 175.9 114.0 218.7 285.0 247.5 102.3

Agusan RB 124.4 334.6 163.8 116.2 158.0 229.2 205.4 114.0 191.0 274.3 239.2 106.7

Buayan-Malungon 72.0 113.4 93.3 119.2 118.8 174.8 149.5 106.4 135.4 182.3 156.9 93.3

Cagayan de Oro 69.5 122.1 95.5 119.9 165.5 221.3 197.7 113.4 229.8 288.5 266.2 99.5

Cotabato RB 83.5 136.4 125.7 111.6 141.3 243.1 211.9 108.7 146.5 306.3 263.1 98.6

Davao RB 61.9 133.6 108.7 103.0 221.7 228.2 226.6 108.7 227.8 286.2 269.0 99.6

Tagoloan River 78.6 123.0 103.2 112.4 169.4 223.8 199.4 115.8 224.8 277.7 247.7 101.8

Tagum-Libuganon 106.0 172.4 137.6 107.9 210.1 225.9 219.4 111.9 231.7 274.3 251.5 101.8

LUZON

MINDANAO

MAY 2018 JUNE 2018APRIL 2018

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS

in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

JULY - SEPTEMBER 2018

CATCHMENT

MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal

Abra RB 631.5 1456.6 994.6 199.3 413.4 761.5 578.0 101.7 291.3 381.3 338.3 90.0

Abulug RB 393.8 753.6 561.6 208.0 229.3 475.1 360.5 102.1 256.7 321.8 287.5 94.6

Agno RB 725.8 1553.0 1107.4 184.4 513.5 917.2 699.0 106.4 333.1 467.6 389.8 93.6

Bicol RB 203.2 423.5 305.6 83.4 156.8 254.2 216.0 106.8 285.4 302.6 293.3 108.8

Bued RB 986.2 1424.2 1137.2 191.6 652.4 916.4 732.0 107.7 359.6 384.6 372.2 87.2

Cagayan RB 156.3 1459.6 532.0 172.0 194.7 720.5 351.9 111.9 223.6 373.6 279.5 98.4

Laoag RB 671.4 893.3 796.6 209.8 436.5 618.8 518.7 104.0 309.2 350.3 333.0 90.1

Pampanga RB 78.1 1408.0 574.6 112.3 216.8 802.2 453.7 96.8 297.6 475.9 384.8 103.4

Pasig-Laguna RB 131.7 801.4 428.7 90.9 227.3 621.8 410.4 114.4 263.1 443.6 344.2 102.4

Sinocalan RB 894.5 1025.1 956.1 187.5 620.3 676.2 650.1 109.0 358.3 381.9 372.6 91.5

Agus RB 98.7 159.4 127.4 49.3 178.6 244.8 206.9 98.3 222.2 283.9 251.3 109.2

Agusan RB 44.3 169.0 99.3 45.3 105.3 262.3 181.3 101.4 152.9 278.0 209.0 103.6

Buayan-Malungon 38.9 70.3 53.5 35.3 98.3 163.2 133.1 104.2 108.3 150.0 127.1 93.9

Cagayan de Oro 120.0 187.1 160.0 53.9 198.1 281.9 245.1 99.9 246.7 303.3 283.0 108.4

Cotabato RB 43.5 191.2 127.7 49.9 117.0 303.1 221.2 95.5 115.9 304.2 236.6 101.1

Davao RB 84.3 170.0 136.5 48.6 217.2 267.1 248.9 95.2 191.5 279.4 245.7 99.4

Tagoloan River 118.8 182.0 151.7 51.6 201.7 289.8 248.0 105.7 237.3 299.4 270.5 107.9

Tagum-Libuganon 67.8 160.3 105.1 44.3 170.8 252.2 205.5 94.3 189.8 269.7 221.6 98.4

LUZON

MINDANAO

AUGUST 2018 SEPTEMBER 2018JULY 2018

DRY DAY FORECAST

DRY DAY FORECAST

PROVINCE

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

ABRA 24 - 29 16 - 21 12 - 18 10 - 15 9 - 16 14 - 19

BENGUET 20 - 22 12 - 15 9 - 11 6 - 9 6 - 8 8 - 12

IFUGAO 20 - 24 13 - 19 10 - 19 9 - 16 8 - 17 11 - 20

KALINGA 24 - 27 17 - 20 13 - 20 12 - 18 11 - 19 15 - 20

APAYAO 26 - 30 20 - 23 17 - 21 14 - 18 15 - 21 18 - 21

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 22 - 24 13 - 19 10 - 19 9 - 17 8 - 18 12 - 20

REGION I

ILOCOS NORTE 29 - 30 21 - 22 15 - 21 12 - 16 12 - 21 17 - 22

ILOCOS SUR 21 - 30 12 - 22 9 - 15 7 - 12 6 - 13 9 - 18

LA UNION 20 - 23 12 - 17 9 - 13 6 - 8 6 - 9 9 - 11

PANGASINAN 21 - 27 15 - 21 11 - 15 7 - 9 8 - 12 10 - 14

REGION II

BATANES 23 - 24 20 - 21 18 - 19 14 - 15 15 - 16 14 - 16

CAGAYAN 24 - 30 20 - 23 19 - 23 16 - 20 18 - 22 18 - 22

ISABELA 20 - 25 17 - 20 16 - 22 14 - 19 14 - 24 17 - 21

NUEVA VIZCAYA 18 - 22 13 - 17 10 - 16 7 - 14 7 - 14 9 - 17

QUIRINO 17 - 21 16 - 18 16 - 19 13 - 16 13 - 21 14 - 19


BATAAN 30 - 31 21 - 22 15 - 18 10 - 14 11 - 14 15 - 18

BULACAN 21 - 30 15 - 21 11 - 15 7 - 11 8 - 11 10 - 14

NUEVA ECIJA 19 - 28 15 - 20 12 - 15 8 - 13 9 - 12 11 - 13

PAMPANGA 27 - 30 18 - 21 13 - 16 8 - 10 9 - 11 11 - 15

TARLAC 26 - 29 19 - 21 13 - 15 8 - 9 10 - 12 12 - 14

ZAMBALES 26 - 30 18 - 21 11 - 15 8 - 11 9 - 11 14 - 16

AURORA 16 - 21 15 - 18 12 - 20 11 - 15 11 - 22 11 - 19


METRO MANILA 25 - 29 16 - 20 11 - 16 7 - 12 8 - 13 10 - 15

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) - - - - - -

BATANGAS 20 - 29 18 - 21 15 - 18 14 - 17 14 - 17 16 - 19

CAVITE 26 - 29 19 - 22 15 - 18 12 - 15 13 - 15 15 - 18

LAGUNA 21 - 28 17 - 20 13 - 16 9 - 15 10 - 16 12 - 17

RIZAL 21 - 26 16 - 19 11 - 14 8 - 13 9 - 14 10 - 15

QUEZON 16 - 26 15 - 21 12 - 19 10 - 19 11 - 21 11 - 17


MARINDUQUE 22 - 24 20 - 21 17 - 18 16 - 17 17 - 18 16 - 17

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 19 - 29 18 - 20 13 - 16 12 - 16 13 - 18 15 - 19

ORIENTAL MINDORO 19 - 23 18 - 20 14 - 16 14 - 17 16 - 18 16 - 19

ROMBLON 21 - 26 20 - 21 15 - 16 15 - 17 16 - 18 16 - 18

PALAWAN 23 - 30 17 - 22 11 - 20 7 - 24 12 - 21 10 - 21

REGION V (BICOL)

ALBAY 19 - 24 17 - 19 14 - 16 13 - 18 17 - 20 14 - 17

CAMARINES NORTE 21 - 25 17 - 20 16 - 19 17 - 19 19 - 21 15 - 16

CAMARINES SUR 21 - 25 18 - 20 14 - 17 14 - 18 18 - 21 15 - 18

CATANDUANES 12 - 21 13 - 21 14 - 17 17 - 18 19 - 21 17 - 18

MASBATE 23 - 28 20 - 23 15 - 17 14 - 21 17 - 20 16 - 18

SORSOGON 20 - 23 18 - 20 14 - 16 13 - 21 17 - 19 14 - 16

DRY DAY (APRIL TO SEPTEMBER 2018) as of March 21, 2018

No. of Dry Days

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

How certain or

uncertain are

we?

Forecasting rainfall

in probabilistic terms

is a way of

expressing

uncertainty in the

future

weather/climate.

PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE

FORECAST (APRIL -SEPTEMBER 2018)

Updated : 19 March 2018

FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)

Northern Luzon 30.5 39.0 31.2 39.8 31.3 38.4 32.1 37.4 31.2 36.5 31.1 36.9

Lowlands Luzon 32.0 37.6 32.3 38.0 32.1 37.0 31.8 37.4 31.5 37.0 32.0 36.7

Mountainous Luzon 26.4 28.2 25.8 28.1 25.4 27.5 25.0 26.9 23.9 26.5 25.5 27.2

Metro Manila 35.0 37.7 35.1 37.5 33.4 36.2 32.0 35.4 31.7 34.5 32.2 34.7

Lowlands Visayas 31.8 37.4 32.5 37.5 31.8 36.6 32.0 36.5 31.9 36.6 32.4 36.1

Lowlands Mindanao 32.8 38.0 32.9 37.3 32.5 36.6 32.1 37.1 32.4 37.9 32.6 36.4

Mountainous Mindanao 32.8 35.0 32.6 34.2 31.3 33.0 30.5 32.8 31.1 33.2 31.9 33.1

Sep-18

Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-RangeTMAX Summary

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18

Northern Luzon 17.1 23.8 18.6 23.5 19.6 24.0 19.3 24.4 20.0 24.0 20.0 23.7

Lowlands Luzon 19.9 26.0 19.5 25.0 21.0 25.6 20.0 25.3 19.9 24.9 20.1 25.0

Mountainous Luzon 12.7 15.0 14.5 15.6 14.7 16.0 15.0 15.7 14.9 15.6 14.6 16.1

Metro Manila 20.8 25.9 22.3 25.0 22.6 25.0 22.5 24.8 22.4 24.3 22.0 24.7

Lowlands Visayas 21.0 25.1 21.5 25.0 21.8 24.9 21.5 25.2 21.4 24.9 20.4 25.0

Lowlands Mindanao 19.8 23.5 20.9 24.5 20.5 23.7 20.8 23.8 20.5 23.9 20.6 24.0

Mountainous Mindanao 15.0 16.6 16.6 18.0 16.9 18.2 16.3 18.0 15.9 18.0 16.5 17.7

Sep-18

Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-RangeTMIN Summary

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18

Prob_May_exceedanceProb_April_exceedance

april_freq temp

CATBALOGAN 1 35.9

CUYO 1 34.9

DIPOLOG 1 33.9

INFANTA 1 34.3

LAOAG 1 36.0

MAASIN 2 34.3

MASBATE 2 34.8

PORTAREA 4 35.1

PUERTO 1 34.3

SANJOSE 1 37.0

TACLOBAN 3 33.9

may_freq temp

APARRI 1 35.6

BAGUIO 1 27.5

GENSAN 1 36.1

HINATUAN 1 34.5

LAOAG 1 36.2

PORTAREA 1 35.6

TACLOBAN 1 34.2

2018/3/23

Tropical Cyclone Forecast

8 – 12 TCs from APRIL – SEPT. 2018

MONTH NUMBER OF TC

APRIL 2018 0 OR 1

MAY 2018 1 OR 2

JUNE 2018 1 OR 2

JULY 2018 2 TO 4

AUGUST 2018 2 OR 3

SEPTEMBER 2018 2 OR 3

SUMMARY• La Niña weakened in the tropical Pacific, with likely transition to ENSO-neutral

during March-April-May 2018 season.

• ENSO Alert System Status – LA NINA ADVISORY (final La Nina Advisory will be

issued in April)

• Rainfall Forecast for April – September 2018:

• April - generally below to way below normal rainfall over Luzon while near normal

in Ilocos region and portion of Northern Mindanao;

• May - generally near normal to above normal rainfall over Luzon and Visayas

while generally near normal in Mindanao area;

• June - generally near normal rainfall with patches of above normal over Bicol,

Bohol and Southern Leyte;

• July – above normal over most parts of Luzon including Panay area, while

generally way below to below normal over the Visayas and Mindanao;

• August to September – generally near normal rainfall with portions of above

normal rainfall over Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

SUMMARY• Generally, near average to slightly warmer than

average surface temperature is expected over the

coming months over most parts of the country;

• 8 to 12 tropical cyclones may develop or enter the

Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from April

to September 2018.

The Weather and Climate Authority

MARAMING SALAMAT!

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based oncentered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

Date post:	31-Jan-2017
Category:	Documents
Upload:	lephuc
View:	219 times
Download:	0 times

The Weather and Climate Authority

Documents