The World in 2050:Benefits of Systems Science
towards Sustainable Transformations
Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General and Chief Executive Officer, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Professor Earth System Science, Wageningen, The
Netherlands
Prague, 20 December 2016
2016 #3
2016 #4
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)Goal #
Description Goal # Description
Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries
Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development
Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
2016 #5
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRESB2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
UrbanizationWorld
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
Popu
latio
n
2016 #6
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRESB2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
UrbanizationWorld, UK, BRICs
UK
BRICs
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Popu
latio
n
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
2016 #7
Participatory Governance
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010
Participatory
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Popu
latio
n
2016 #8
Participatory GovernanceSlavery Abolishment
Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;
Participatory
Abolishment
1863United Statesof America
1906China
1948UN Declaration
of Human Rights
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Popu
latio
n
2016 #92015 #9
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
Net-negative emissions
2016 #102015 #10
Food for a Week, Aboubakar Family© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
2016 #112015 #11
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
Food for a Week, Melander Family
2016 #122015 #12
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Vision: Sustainable Future
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UNIDO etc.)
Sustainability Transformation“Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries
Time
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
Source: WBGU, 2011
→ Increasing problem perception
→ Policy regimes
→ Values and norms
2016 #13
Vision: Sustainable Future within Planetary Boundaries
Sustainability Transformation“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
Incremental
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
→ Back to the“Garden of Eden”
Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011
Out of Anthropocene
2016 #1414
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
2016 #152015 #1515
Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker
2016 #16
Integrated Systems approach to SDG-Pathways
We lack a truly integrated, comprehensivequantitative understanding of sustainabledevelopment pathways, accounting for the inter-linkages between the economy, technology, environment, climate, human development and planetary boundaries.
2016 #17
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT
17
2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.
GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s
GEA became basis for adoption of Sustainable Development Goal # 7
2016 #182015 #181850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MikrochipKommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
VakuumröhreOttomotor
ElektrischerMotor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear-energie
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution
2016 #192015 #191850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
2016 #202015 #201850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
EinsparungenAndere ENuklearGasÖlKohleBiomasse
Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear
SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
~55% renewables by 2030
2016 #212015 #211850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
0
50
100
150
200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
European Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
2016 #222015 #22
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
2016 #23
GAINS POLICY APPLICATIONS
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution1994 Second Sulphur Protocol1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/multi-effect Protocol2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
European Union1999 National Emission Ceilings Directive2004 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution2010 Energy & Climate package, etc.2013 Revision of the Thematic Strategy
Further analyses for UNFCCC, Arctic Council, UNEP, Chinese, Japanese and Korean Governments
2016 #242015 #24Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES
2016 #252015 #25Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES
2016 #262015 #26Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES
2016 #272015 #27Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES
2016 #282015 #28
Climate Change
Maximum FufillmentMinimum Fufillment
Energy Security
Energy Affordability
Health / Air Pollution
Ancilliary Risks
Energy Access
GEA Pathway Analysis
Policy Tools for Decision Making
2016 #29
UN80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100, with the median at 10.9 billion.IIASAMost likely scenario indicates that world population will increase to 9.2 billion by 2050, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.
Benefits of Systems Approach: Bridging across research and policy making silo’s
2016 #30
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Base Year 2010
FemalesMales1.22 Billion
2016 #31
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONRAPID DEVELOPMENT
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2030 - SSP1
FemalesMales1.5 Billion
2016 #32
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONRAPID DEVELOPMENT
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2060 - SSP1
FemalesMales1.5 Billion
2016 #33
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Base Year 2010
FemalesMales1.22 Billion
2016 #34
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONSTALLED DEVELOPMENT
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2030 - SSP3
FemalesMales1.6 Billion
2016 #35
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONSTALLED DEVELOPMENT
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2060 - SSP3
FemalesMales2.1 Billion
2016 #36
IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON POPULATIONRAPID VERSUS STALLED DEVELOPMENT
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2060 -SSP1
FemalesMales1.5 Billion
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Millions
Age
(in
Year
s)
India - Projections 2060 -SSP3
FemalesMales2.1 Billion
2016 #37
Strategic objective of TWI2050
The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic development within planetary boundaries
Source: Rockstrom, 2014
2016 #38
The World in 2050 (TWI2050)
How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space
“Safe space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models
Sustainable Development Pathway based on existing literature e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP
Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward the “safe space” and how to achieve sustainable futures
2016 #392015 #39
● AIMES● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Future Earth● German Development Institute (DIE)● Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)● Indian Institute International Futures● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)● Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Stanford University ● Stockholm Resilience Centre ● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● The City University of New York (CUNY)● Tsinghua University● UN Population Division● UN DESA● UNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)● University of Hamburg● World Bank
The World in 2050 “Consortium”
2016 #40
IIASA: THE EARLY 1970s
Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian
2016 #412015 #41Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA
2016 #422015 #42
International, independent, interdisciplinary
Research on major global problems
Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis
24 MEMBER COUNTRIES (NMOs)
2016 #43
About 350 (trans- and multidisciplinary) scientists from 50+ countries @ IIASA in the host country Austria + 2 500 external
faculty (4000 alumni)
30%
41%
29%
Natural Scientists & EngineersEconomists & other Social ScientistsMathematicians and others
2016 #44
IIASA as a global hub for system analysis research Today’s IIASA
• 1,445 visitors & collaborators in 2014• Plus ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,505 people worldwide)
remain actively involved in IIASA research• Plus ~600 partner institutions• In sum, ~2500 researchers from some 65 countries
involved in IIASA’s research network (external faculty)• And it is not just research networks: IIASA
researchers took part in 112 advisory boards and steering committees in 2014
2016 #45
EXAMPLES OF EARLY RESEARCH
1978 1981 1986 19901983
2016 #462015 #46
Food &
Water
Poverty &
Equity
IIASA SYSTEMS RESEARCH STRATEGY & RESULTS
Energy &
Climate Change
IIASA HIGHLIGHTS 2011-2015http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/achievements/Highlights.html
2016 #47
IIASA ENHANCED SYSTEMS RESEARCH FRAMEWORK 2016-2020
Integrated Solutions for Sustainability
Transformations
Natural Systems
Technology & Infrastructure Systems Human & Social
Systems
Integrated Systems Analysis
Science, Policy, Society Partnerships
Systems Approaches for Global Transformations IIASA Research Plan 2016 – 2020
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/leadership/strategicplan/IIASA-Research-Plan2015-2020.pdf
Thank you & welcome (soon) at IIASA !