The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012 · The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012!! An...

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012

An Independent Assessment 15 Months After Fukushima (see www.WorldNuclearReport.org)

Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy

Paris, France

Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)

IAEA-INPRO-Dialogue Forum “Long-term Prospects for Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima Era”

Seoul, 29 August 2012

Seoul, 29 August 2012

Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)

Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012




Current Status of the Nuclear Power Plants in Japan(as of August 17, 2012)

: In�operation

(2

unit,�2.36GWe)

:�Outage�for�the�periodic�inspection

(35�units,�30.61GWe)

:�Shutdown�due�to�tsunami�

andand�the�government�request

(13�units,�13.18�GWe)

TOTAL�:�50

units,�46.15

GWe

Abolished




Source: IAEA-PRIS, 2012

0

100

200

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900 U

nite

d St

ates

Fran

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Rus

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Japa

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orea

Ger

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Can

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Ukr

aine

Chi

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Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Swed

en

Spai

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Bel

gium

Taiw

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Indi

a

Cze

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Switz

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Finl

and

Bul

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Bra

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Rom

ania

Mex

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Slov

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Arg

entin

a

Net

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Paki

stan

Arm

enia

Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World in 2011 (per country) (net TWh)

TWh

Total World 2,518 TWh

TWh

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15!

22!

34!

25!23!

15!

8!

11!

15!

9!

13!

20!

12!

9!10!

6!4!

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 43

Num

ber o

f Rea

ctor

s Age of 429 Reactors in Operation in the World

as of 1 May 2012

Mean Age: 23 years

Mean Age 27 Years

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Sour

ce: I

AEA-

PRIS

, MSC

, 201

2

Reactors « Under Construction » in the World (1 July 2012)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-2012 (by grid connection date)

Average construction time (in year)!


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-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

,000

5,000

10,000

15,000 20

11

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2058

Number of Reactors

Capacity in MWe

Projection 2011-2057 of Nuclear Reactor Numbers/Capacity Operating and Under Construction in the World in July 2012

General assumption of 40 years of mean lifetime + Authorized Lifetime Extensions (MWe and number of units)

Reactors Added - Shut-down

Capacity Added - Shut-down

2012-2020 -16 reactors +6,500 MW

2031 - 2040 -100 reactors

-85,000 MW 2021 - 2030 -192 reactors -172,000 MW ©

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on

su

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Net Balance

2041 - 2050 -53 reactors -49,500 MW

2051 - 2057 -68 reactors -61,500 MW


Source: WNISR 2012

Evolution of EPR Cost Estimates 2003-2012


• ”Most nuclear projects are financed either by Governments or by very large utilities.”

• ”They are at high risk of being completed late and significantly over budget.”

• ”Nuclear projects face heightened political risk relative to other energy assets.”

• ”Public acceptance is not assured and this brings reputational risk.”

• ”No clear idea about the economics.”

French BNP-Paribas Bank Conclusions on Nuclear New Build

Source: BNP-Paribas 2012, “How will financing be secured in the future?”, Mark Muldowney, Presented at the European Nuclear Forum, Brussels, 19 March 2012


Source: WNISR 2012


Source: WNISR 2012

Long Term Credit Ratings of Nuclear Related Companies


Rating Agency Moody’s and Nuclear Power “…a nuclear project could be the thing that pushes [the utility] over the edge—it's just another negative factor.” Decisions considered “credit positive”:

• German utilities E.ON and RWE pullout of UK new-build market is considered positive because they “can instead focus on investment in less risky projects”. • German electronics company Siemens announcement to entirely withdraw from nuclear power “frees up funds that Siemens can redeploy in businesses with better visibility”.

Sources: see WNISR 2012


Sources: BNEF 2012; WNISR 2012

0

50

100

150

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250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2011

New Renewables Nuclear

© M

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$ billion


Renewable Energy Investment in Top 10 Countries 2009-2011 (in billion US$)

2011 2010 2009 United States 48.1 34.0 22.5 China 45.5 54.4 39.1 Germany 30.6 41.2 20.6 Italy 28.0 13.9 6.2 India 10.2 4.0 3.2 UK 9.4 7.0 N/A Japan 8.6 7.0 N/A Spain 8.6 4.9 10.5 Brazil 8.0 7.6 7.7 Canada 5.5 5.6 3.5 ! Sources: BNEF 2012; WNISR 2012


30

57

103

221

13 6

6

22

66

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GWe

Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000–2011 (cumulated, in GWe)

Wind

Nukes

Solar

Source: IAEA-PRIS, Global Wind Energy Council, JRC, 2012


116

84

47

11

-10 -14 -14

-40

0

40

80

120

160

Gas Wind PV Other Renewables

Coal Nuclear Fuel Oil

Net Electricity Generating Capacity Additions in the EU 2000-2011 by Energy Source in GWe

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ul

tin

g

GWe

Source: EWEA 2012


8

52

98

330

220

78

1 4

40

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-e

TWh Global Increase in Electricity Production 2000-2011 from Nuclear, Wind and Solar

(in TWh)

Wind Nuclear Solar, Tide and Wave

© M

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ing


140

163 159

102

20

50

112

0

50

100

150

200

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TWh German Generation of Nuclear and Renewables 1991-2011 (in TWh)

Nuclear Renewable

© Mycle Schneider Consulting

Sources: US EIA 2011, PRIS 2012, AGEB 2012


Post-Fukushima Reactions in China

• No construction initiation in 2011. • Limiting units per site?

• Startup of 2 new commercial reactors in 2011 (1,600 MW).

• Abandoning of CPR1000 series? Waiting for Gen III reactors?

• Acceleration of renewable energy programs in 2011:

+18,000 MW wind (11 x nuclear) à 63,000 MW installed (= French nuclear) +3,000 MW solar (2 x nuclear, 5 x addition 2010) à Target quadrupled to 20 GW by 2015


1

12

26

42

63

0,1 0,9 3,8

2 5

10 12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Installed Nuclear, Wind and Solar Capacity in China 2000-2011 (in GWe)

Wind Power Solar PV Nuclear

GWe

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Sources: GWEC, IAEA PRIS, BP Statitical Review, Solar PV Investor, 2012


16

42

55

70

87

1 4

25

48

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TWh Electricity Produced by Nuclear and Wind in China 2000-2011 (in TWh)

Nuclear

Wind

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Source: IPSOS, June 2011

South-Korean Public Most Influenced by 3/11

One Less Nuclear Power Plant through energy saving and new & renewable energy generation

Conclusions • Nuclear power plays a limited role in the international energy sector: ≈11% of electricity, <5% of primary energy, <2% of final energy in the world. • Most of the indicators are on the decline (installed capacity, power generation, share in global power generation, units under construction…). • Fukushima increases costs (safety, insurance, financing…) and problems (public opinion, political parties, competence…). Many nuclear companies are in deep financial trouble. • Post-Fukushima policy decisions, especially in two of the four major economies in the world—Germany, Japan—will likely have a strong pull effect on non-nuclear policies. • Globally, nuclear’s main competitors are natural gas and renewables with very fast, steady and large growth rates. • Renewables penetration will accelerate with storage and grid developments.



Thank You!

Contact: [email protected] Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79

“We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century.”

President Barack Obama State of the Union Address

27 January 2010

www.WorldNuclearReport.org - online now!

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