The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

www.WorldNuclearReport.org

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

Mycle Schneider

International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris

Convening Lead Author and Publisher of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR)

Contact: [email protected]

Objective Capital

London, 18 June 2015

Antony Froggatt

Independent Consultant and Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, London

Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR)

Contact: [email protected]


Outline

• Global Status of Nuclear Power

– Development of nuclear power

– Current contributions to electricity production

– Nuclear new build plans

– Nuclear projections

• Nuclear vs. Renewable Energy Development

Mycle Schneider Consulting London, 18 June 2015

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

195

4

196

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196

5

197

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198

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199

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200

5

201

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201

5

Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 April 2015

Reactor Startup

Reactor Shutdown

© Mycle Schneider Consulting

Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015


Mycle Schneider Consulting

438 reactors340 GWe

394 reactors312 GWe420 reactors

0

50

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150

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350

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450

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4001

95

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196

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197

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198

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198

91

99

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2

201

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Number ofReactors

GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 April 2015

Reactors in operation

Operable capacity

©M

ycle

Sch

ne

ider

Con

sultin

g




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900U

SA

Fra

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Ru

ss

ia

So

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Ko

rea

Ch

ina

Ca

na

da

Germ

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Uk

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UK

Sw

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Sp

ain

Be

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Taiw

an

Ind

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Czec

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Sw

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Fin

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Slo

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ia

Hu

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Ja

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Bra

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Afr

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Bu

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ria

Me

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Ro

ma

nia

Arg

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Slo

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Pakis

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Iran

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Arm

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ia

TWh Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 2013(in TWh)

Maximum

2013

2012

©M

ycle

Schneid

er

Consultin

g




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1500

2000

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3000

3500

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

199

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199

5

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201

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201

3

TWh%Nuclear Electricity Production in the World 1990-2013

in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross)©

Myc

le S

chneid

er

Consultin

g

2,359 TWh

17.5% max 17.6%max 2,660 TWh

10.8%




186

61

48

5

0

25

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75

100

125

150

175

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225

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1954 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

Rea

cto

rsNumber of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction"

by year, 1954 - 1 April 2015

Cancelled or Suspended Projects

Completed and Ongoing Projects

66

234

©M

ycle

Sch

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ider

Co

nsu

ltin

g





Reactors « Under Construction » in the World (1 April 2015)





Operating Costs and Markets

• Market Prices Barely Cover Costs

• Belgium: GDF-Suez lost court case against fuel tax

--> Now “considers all options” for its 7 reactors

• Sweden: at least 3 reactors operated at loss in 2 of 4 past years

--> New 17% tax increase might lead to earlier shutdowns

• Forcing Shutdowns

• Germany: E.ON decides to shut down Grafenrheinfeld in June 2015,

--> six months earlier than required by law

• USA: Five shutdown decisions, incl. 2 reactors licensed to operate beyond 2030;

many other reactors “threatened”.



The 20 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the €1 trillion

stock market value since 2008, some a lot more.

Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the

deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the

distribution grid level.Navigant Research, Boulder, USA, August 2014

A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of

the large-scale utilities.Institute for Public Policy Research, London, September 2014

Energy storage for electricity systems prices potentially dropping to

$230/kWh by early next decade, which would make it cheaper than the

average household electricity bill. Citi Research 2014

Traditional Utilities Under Pressure


IAEA Capacity Forecasts


Source: IAEA various

0

200

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800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050

GW

Actual 1985 Low 1985 High 1990 Low 1990 High

1995 Low 1995 High 2000 Low 2000 High 2005 Low

2005 High 2010 Low 2010 High 2014 Low 2014 High

Nuclear Vs Renewables



0

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100

150

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350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2013 (in $ billion)

Solar Wind Other Renewables Nuclear

©M

ycle

Sch

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ider

Co

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ltin

g

$ billion


Sources: BNEF and WNISR


30

57

103

221

266

301

13 1717

-19 -23 -196

22

66

98

135

-50

0

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100

150

200

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GWeWind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000–2013

(cumulated, in GWe)

Wind

Nuclear

Solar

©M

ycle

Sch

ne

ider

Co

nsu

ltin

g

Source: IAEA-PRIS, EPIA, GWEC 2014

Nuclear vs. Renewable Energy Development



51

121

266

331

510

616

303

257

415

313

384

114

1 4 18 30

93

124

-100

0

100

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800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TWh/y Variations in Global Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997from Nuclear, Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

(in TWh/y)

Wind

Nuclear

Solar

© Mycle Schneider Consulting

Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014


Concluding Remarks

• Global nuclear industry remains on the decline, losing share of electricity market.

• Two countries produce half the world’s nuclear electricity, in the EU France

produces half the total.

• Nuclear construction dominated by China, three quarters of all projects delayed.

• Increasing pressure on operators: aging reactors becoming more expensive to

operate, just as market price of electricity is falling, client base and consumption

are shrinking.

• France is facing rough times: “nuclear champions” in trouble with high debts,

degraded credit-rating, destroyed share value, upcoming large upgrading and

decommissioning costs.

• UK is important for international nuclear new build with Chinese, French and

Japanese companies interested in engaging/building.

• Investment in new renewable energy far exceeds that of nuclear leading to

significantly higher newly installed capacity.

• Since signing of Kyoto in 1997, power generation added from solar and nuclear is

similar, while wind is 4 times greater.


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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

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