+ All Categories
Home > Documents > The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food...

The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food...

Date post: 24-Apr-2018
Category:
Upload: vuongliem
View: 216 times
Download: 2 times
Share this document with a friend
34
The world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation Joachim von Braun Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn Keynote at the 25 th session of the Committee on Agriculture in FAO, September 26 th , 2016
Transcript
Page 1: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

The world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation

Joachim von BraunCenter for Development Research (ZEF)

University of Bonn

Keynote at the 25th session of the Committee on Agriculture in FAO, September 26th, 2016

Page 2: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food

and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and

nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable

transformation4. Conclusions

Joachim von Braun 2016 2

Page 3: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Source: Worldmapper 2009.

and consuming what and how much?

World population 2050(from 7 to 9 billion)

Joachim von Braun 2016 3

Page 4: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Urbanization challenge –and rural change

Source: UN DESA. 2014.

Joachim von Braun 2016 4

©R

eute

rs©D

OK

.fest

©AF

P

Page 5: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Toward a New Urbanization

• Accelerated trend: Rural-Urban linkages with people and resource flows

• Communications technology changes the rural-urban distinctions

Urban and rural become less relevant distinctions

Toward bio-sensitive cities

Joachim von Braun 2016 5

Page 6: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Agriculture in sectoral transformation: Conventional view

Data source: World Bank Data.

mid-1990s 2000 2010

Agriculture as share of GDP 8 5 4Ag employment as share of total employment 39 36 20

Joachim von Braun 2016 6

Agricultural GDP and employment shares decline as GDP per capita rises

Page 7: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Misleading focus on Agriculture GDP

• Agriculture is not just a “sector“ of production• Old problems:

– Home production in subsistence farming not appropriately accounted for

– Environmental services and dis-services not accounted for

• New trend: Agriculture increasingly includes industry and services sector elements, but they are accounted for separately from agriculture

Agriculture is much bigger than GDP suggests

Joachim von Braun 2016 7

Page 8: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Agriculture Transformation: “Agricultural Sector“part of “Bioeconomy“

What is Bioeconomy? … the production and use of biological

resources, technologies, and biological intelligence in all economic sectors (agriculture, food, energy, textile, construction, chemical, pharma, etc. industries).

This new reality broadens the scope of agricultural policy and practice

Joachim von Braun 2016 8

Page 9: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Joachim von Braun 2016Source: El-Chichakli, B., J. von Braun, C. Lang, D. Barben. 2016. 9

Page 10: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Transformation of small farms

• Of an estimated 570 million small farms almost three quarters located in Asia, 9% in SSA (Lowder et al. 2014)

• BUT:– Small farm transformation is dynamic– Small farms are competitive when markets are

accessible– Holdings grow more with rental markets, than does

land ownership – Part-time farming on the raise

Small farms will be with us for the long runThey are important businesses

Joachim von Braun 2016 10

Page 11: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

80019

5019

5519

6019

6519

7019

7519

8019

8519

9019

9520

0020

0520

1020

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

4020

4520

5020

5520

60Yout

h ag

ed 1

5-24

(mill

ions

)

Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

Policies for youth in agriculture define the future

Joachim von Braun 2016Data source: UN DESA. 2015.

11

Page 12: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Occupation choices as reported by youth (%) in Ethiopia

Youth: Are they interested in agriculture?

Joachim von Braun 2016 12

Source: Tekalign Guta et al. ZEF, 2016.

Page 13: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

In sum: Three inter-linked agriculture transformations and their Drivers

T1: Agriculture becoming a multi-dimensional “sector“ (connecting farming with value chains, industries, and services; bioeconomy)T2: Farms change (education, farm size structures, market access, mechanization, irrigation, energy)T3: Technological and organizational change(crop and livestock technology, linked with information technology; training and capacity;institutional innovations)

Joachim von Braun 2016 13

Page 14: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food

and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and

nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable

transformation4. Conclusions

Joachim von Braun 2016 14

Page 15: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Not only Goal 2, but all 17 Goals relate to Agriculture

and there are trade offs between goalsJoachim von Braun 2016 15

Page 16: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Nutrition transformations - a challenge

Problems Numbers of people Trends

Hunger (under-nutrition, calories) ca. 0,8 Mrd. declining

Hidden Hunger (deficiencies of micro-nutrients, vitamins, iron etc.)

ca. 2 Mrd. Slowly declining

Children‘s under-nutrition(the first 1000 days)

ca. 165 Mio. declining

Obesity and resulting chronicdiseases ca. 1 Mrd. increasing

Sources: The Lancet 6/2013. FAO 2013.Joachim von Braun 2016 16

Page 17: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

G20 Agriculture Ministers Meeting Communiqué, Xi’an, 3 June 2016

Selective quotes:• determined to fulfill our commitments taken under the SDGs• that food security is affected by the increasingly complex and variable factors

and requires comprehensive and coordinated governance measures. • we commit to continue to tackle the issue of price volatility. …ensuring food

security and nutrition requires global efforts with a special focus on developing countries,

• We value the fundamental significance of agricultural research and development

• harmonize urban and rural development, • Information and Communications Technology (ICT) … application in agriculture • smallholder farmers face crucial challenges in addressing globalization,

increasingly complex food value chains, pressures on natural resources, and the adverse effect of climate change.

• sound agricultural policies, investment and trade are important engines for sustainable agricultural development

Joachim von Braun 2016 17

Page 18: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Prices: opportunity and risk for agriculture – level, trend and volatility

Data source: Bloomberg.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Pric

es in

USD

/kg

(for o

il: U

SD/B

arre

l)

Wheat Rice Corn Soybeans Oil (WTI)

Joachim von Braun 2016 18

Page 19: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Policy is partly driven by voice: Smaller farmers – more or less voice?

Sources: von Braun. 2014. Data: Lowder et al. 2014. FAO. World Bank.

Joachim von Braun 2016 19

Page 20: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

In sum: Priority for SDGs

• Coherent policies cutting across goals• Strong emphasis on hunger and nutrition• Sound measurement of progress• Strengthening capacities for policy

implementation • Inclusion of farming communities and their

organizations

Joachim von Braun 2016 20

Page 21: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food

and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and

nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable

transformation4. Conclusions

Joachim von Braun 2016 21

Page 22: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

More with less:Innovation feeds the world

Sources: Keith Fuglie, USDA, IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.

Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture

Innovation

Inputs

IrrigationArea expansion

Joachim von Braun 2016 22

Contribution toproductivity

Page 23: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

More is needed: Public agricultural R&D spending as % of agricultural GDP

Source: ASTI & GFAR. 2012.

Joachim von Braun 2016 23

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0SSA APAC LAC

1981199020002008

Notes: SSA = Africa south of the Sahara; APAC = Asia–Pacific countries; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional growth rates exclude high-income countries within that region (for example, Japan and South Korea in the APAC region).

Page 24: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to

hunger and under-nutrition

Impacts of climate change on the productivity of food crops in 2050

World Bank Development Report 2010

Joachim von Braun 2016

2012 Global Hunger Index

Welthungerhilfe, IFPRI and Concern WorldwideK von Grebmer et al 2012

Source: Tim Wheeler, Joachim von Braun. SCIENCE, 2013. 24

Page 25: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Technologies drive transformations and vice versa

• Overcoming the hoe• Precision farming• Biological innovations• ICT 4 agriculture

Joachim von Braun 2016 25

Page 26: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Facilitating equal capacity for women on farms and in rural economy

• Gender wage gap = 26% Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fisheries

• Land rights inequality• Less access to technology and markets

Joachim von Braun 2016

Source: Africa Human Development Report 2016

26

Page 27: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Building farmer’s ‘capacity to aspire’ is to be part of strategy for agricultural development

• people with high aspirations are more likely to adopt agricultural innovations

• Policies targeting aspirations with group and info actions can enhance the effectiveness of tech. policies

Evidence from Ethiopia (Mekonnen & Gerber, ZEF 2016): see figure

Joachim von Braun 2016 27

Page 28: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Toward formal vocational training in agriculture

• Beyond extension• Below collegesToward certified vocational training- Entry must be possible with low barriers- Class room training on agronomy, agri-business,

finance (partly using ICT) - On-farm experience under guidance of lead

farmers (clubs)- Certification with exams • Ready for farm and diverse rural labor market

Joachim von Braun 2016 28

Page 29: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

In sum: Innovation support

• Accelerated investment in science and technology and research

• Fostering farmers own innovations through innovation awards and leading farmers groups

• Innovation to deal with climate change, land and water problems

Joachim von Braun 2016 29

Page 30: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food

and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and

nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable

transformation4. Conclusions

Joachim von Braun 2016 30

Page 31: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Science System transformation: The current system on food, nutrition, agriculture R&D needs re-design

8 clusters of supply 15 clusters of demand

Univer-sities

National Academies

Private Sector

Research

Academic Associations

Public Research

GFAR

national governments

NGOs

G7, G20, OECD

Joachim von Braun 2016 31

Page 32: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

An enhanced global agr. R&D policysystem

Toward an International Panel for Food, Nutrition and Agriculture (IP-FNA)

mapped along IPCC design

Details see: - von Braun, J. and M. Kalkuhl. 2015. International Science and Policy Interaction for Improved Food and Nutrition Security: Toward an International Panel on Food and Nutrition (IPFN). (ZEF Working Papers 142) http://www.zef.de/uploads/tx_zefportal/Publications/WP142_final.pdf- von Braun, J., R. Birner 2016. Designing Global Governance for Agricultural Development and Food and Nutrition Security. Review of Development Economics (2016). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rode.12261/abstract

Joachim von Braun 2016 32

Page 33: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Toward an “International Panel on Food, Nutrition & Agriculture “

Science Domainevidence base

Policy Domaingov. & non gov.

inform decision makers oncosts, benefits, risks

inform science communityon agenda & priority setting

Coordination required Transparent and participatory process necessary

Joachim von Braun 2016 Source: von Braun, Kalkuhl. ZEF, 2015. 33

Page 34: The world’s agriculture and food transformations, … world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation ... farm size structures, ... Sources of productivity growth

Conclusions: toward agricultural transformation serving people

1. Size and scope of agriculture are undervalued today2. Agriculture is being redefined in transformation due

to its new links with industry and services in an emerging bioeconomy

3. Agriculture must play critical role to address climate change and to cope with it

4. The redesign of S&T, innovation system is needed: toward an International Panel on Food, Nutrition, Agriculture (IP-FNA)

5. Managing agricultural transformation well at national and global levels is the development opportunity, and is needed to prevent poverty, marginality, forced migration, and conflicts

Joachim von Braun 2016 34


Recommended