The worldwide xEV
market 2012-2025
Battery is the Key
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
The Worldwide xEV market 2012-2025
September 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2012
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
3
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
202 M Portable
PCs
>115 M Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2012
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2012
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
4
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
5
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
50 BILLION US$ in 20121
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)
6
1- Pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
90
20
00
20
05
2010
20
12
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
90
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
7
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
8
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
9
HEV, P-HEV & EV
DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
EV & HEV MARKET
EV 25 kWh
HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICRO HEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUM HEV
FULL HEV
P HEV 5 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ
GM Saturn Vue GM AURA
GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT
MERCEDES S400
TOYOTA PRIUS
TOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION
MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
1,5 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2012
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2012
10
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
2,0%
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
HEV
wo
rld
wid
e p
en
etr
atio
n (
%)
Mill
ion
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOYOTA; 81%
HONDA
FORD GM
BMW
HYUNDAI PORCHE
Others
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
car manufacturers, 2000-2012
11
TOYOTA
HONDA
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
TOYOTA HONDA
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,
HYUNDAI
OTHERS: FORD, GM, …
12
TOYOTA
HONDA
HYUNDAI 0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400‘ 0
00
HEV
so
ld
TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI
FORD
GM
HYUNDAI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
FORD GM HYUNDAI
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY COUNTRY
USA 29%
EUROPE 10%
JAPAN 54%
OTHERS 7%
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
country, 2004-2012
13
USA
EUROPE
JAPAN
OTHERS 0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Micro hybrid not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV FORECASTS
2012-2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
HEV
pen
etra
tio
n (
% o
f to
tal c
ar s
ales
)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
15
LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR
HEV, P-HEV & EV
Recall slash battery profit
LIB >>> NiMH but
SAFETY & COST ISSUES
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
T°C Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
SAFETY ISSUES
16
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Bac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced
safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result
of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering
company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Air
cra
ft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
17
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE
VALUE CHAIN
18
The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components
Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected
Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)
Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful
Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM
On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
1
2
3
5
4
6
Comments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
19
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
20 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
€ 8,250 -€ 18,100
€ 5,500 -€ 8,000
€ 50 -€ 300
€ 1,000 -€ 2,500
€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -
€ 400
HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100
€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -
€ 1,250
€ 150 -€ 350
€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -
€ 500
€ 1,500 -€ 3,000
Charger
DC/DCconverter
InverterRectifier
GeneratorInverter
HV battery
cell Packaging material
LV batterypack
CoolingSyst
HVCables &
Connectors
Batt.MagtSyst
Batt.Packaging
Manuf.
Overall
HV batt. CELL
for EV
0 €
2 000 €
4 000 €
6 000 €
8 000 €
10 000 €
12 000 €
Power Elec
Pack Manufacturing
BMS
Thermal Mgmt + packaging
Cell manu
Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
HEV P-HEV EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
21
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
2015* 2020* 2011* 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
22
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale
IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale
Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009
Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes
AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +20%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +12%
23
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
2000 – 2025
Rechargeable battery market,
M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)
Rechargeable battery market,
M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)
24
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
25
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
26
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
44%
MICRO HYBRID
50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
TAKEAWAYS
27
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +8%
Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)
NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%)
LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)
25 B$
49 B$
60 B$
78 B$
92 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
2,3
15
11
23
52
32
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
28
About
AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
AVICENNE PROFILE
Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari
Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy
with in-depth research
The Rechargeable Battery market
21st Edition
Customized
survey
30
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
OUR BUSINESS STORY
1992 •AVICENNE Creation
1994
•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities
•AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN
1999 •« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris
2003
•AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL
2008 •AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict
2009
•AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – China
2010
•Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020
2011
•AVICENNE Energy division is created •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress
2013 •22nd Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025 • 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
OUR METHODOLOGY
MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Primary Research Secondary Research
Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys
Case Studies Reference Customers
Qualitative Quantitative Strategic
Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition
Track valuable Information's
Strategic Analysis
Presentation of the results
Q&A with customers
Customer Evaluation
INFORMATION COLLECTION
SUP
PLY
SI
DE
DEM
AN
D
SID
E
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO
RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
In Depth analysis Of applications
Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
BMS
Electronics
Substitution technologies
Conferences & Exhibitions
Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts
33
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY
FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN
Source : Photo from BASF
Raw Materials
BMS & Electronics
Cooling Systems
Power Electronics
Batteries
34
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES
WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA
DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI
ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA
ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP
MODERATOR
BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE – (1999-2012) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2010-2025”
INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020”
AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”
THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 “HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2010)
EVER 2009, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”
EVS 20011, “Battery market for automotive industry”
CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide”
Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010 Chairman & speaker, “The battery business 2009-2020”
EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) “The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges”
China Industry Battery Fair 2006 “The Chinese battery Industry”
…
Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year
36
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
BATTERIES 2013
OCTOBER 14TH-16TH
3 days congress in France (Nice)
15th Edition (first edition in 1999)
500 attendees
40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,
80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,
www.batteriesevent.com
37
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key
September 2013
SUMMARY
A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years
Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, …
Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups
Knowledge
Methodology
Expert Network
Flexibility
We will help and support your growth
38
