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© P. Christopher Zegras 9/24/2013
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Broader Interactions: Public Transportation and City Form
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Workshop: Experiences and Challenges
20 September 2013
Professor Christopher ZegrasDepartment of Urban Studies & Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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• http://web.mit.edu/czegras/Public/
• And/or email me: [email protected]
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© P. Christopher Zegras 9/24/2013
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Content• Built Environment (BE) = f (Transport) and
Transport = f (BE)– Background and basic theory
• Transport = f (BE)– theory, evidence, policy implications.
• BE = f (Transport)– theory, evidence, policy implications.
• Conclusions and Questions
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Land Use-Transport Interaction: Theoretical Framework
Land Use
Land Uses (Activities)
Land, Floor Space
Prices Demand
Transportation
Travel (Activities)
Transportation System
Time
Costs Demand
Connectivity
Spatial
Distribution
Accessibility 4
© P. Christopher Zegras 9/24/2013
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Built Environment and Public Transport: The Promise
• Public transport changes the spatial economy of place– Accessibility benefits/costs reflected in land
prices (Zegras et al., 2013)
– Agglomeration economy potentials• Expanded labor markets
• Job concentration and reduced costs of inputs and knowledge spillovers
(Chatman and Noland, 2013)
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Built Environment and Public Transport: The Promise
• Developers: Higher profits– Higher densities possible
– Higher price/unit possible
• Users: Higher benefits– Expanded accessibility
– Lower costs (?)
– Higher quality of life/well-being (Cao, 2013)
• Politicians: More desirable places– Happier voters
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The Broader Context1
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20
50
—
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illio
ns
)
“Less Developed”Urban
“Developed” Urban
Total World
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
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% Change Population by Census Tract (2000-10)
US Census
2012
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Paris
Angel et al, 20119
Bandung, Indonesia
Angel et al, 201110
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Average Tract Density: 20 US Metro Areas
Angel et al., 201111
World “Suburbanization” Trends
Angel et al., 2011 12
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Transport = f (LU)?Something new?
Meyer, et al, 1965 (from Kain, 1999) Howard’s “Garden City”
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The Built Environment and Mobility: A Question of Scale
Scale Refers To Built Environment Concepts/Indicators
Metropolitan Urban Structure Overall City Size, population, gross density, “skeletal” forms (e.g, radial)
Intra-Metropolitan (meso)
Urban Form Dispersion, concentration, mixes, grain, access networks
Micro Scale: (neighborhood)
Urban Design “Internal Texture”, Density, Mixes of Uses, Street Networks, etc.
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Urban Density (persons/hectare)
15,000
10,000
5,000
100 200 300 400
Per
Cap
ita
Car
Km
s
Hong Kong
Sacramento, CA
?
?
xSantiago
13 US Cities
7 Canadian Cities
3 Wealthy Asian Cities
11 European Cities
6 “Developing” Asian Cities
6 Australian Cities
Urban Density (persons/hectare)
15,000
10,000
5,000
100 200 300 400
Per
Cap
ita
Car
Km
s
Hong Kong
Sacramento, CA
?
?
xSantiago
13 US Cities
7 Canadian Cities
3 Wealthy Asian Cities
11 European Cities
6 “Developing” Asian Cities
6 Australian Cities
Kenworthy & Laube, 1999.
Newman & Kenworthy…
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Ingram, 1998, p. 1027.
Newman & Kenworthy…
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Macro-Scale
Form & Function
Bertaud, 200417
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Micro Scale Built Environment
Crane, 1996
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Formalizing the Theoretical Framework
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Crane’s Trip-Based (Time/Cost-Based) Framework
Crane, 1996
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A Trip-Based (Cost-Based) Framework
Auto Travel Demand Indicator
Grid Street(shorter trips)
Traffic Calming
(slower trips)
Mixed Uses & Densification
(one trip, more purposes,
slower speed
All Three
Car TripsIncrease (for all modes,
likely)Decrease
Increase or Decrease
Increase or Decrease
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Increase or Decrease
DecreaseIncrease or Decrease
Increase or Decrease
Car Mode Choice
Increase or Decrease
DecreaseIncrease or Decrease
Increase or Decrease
Crane, 1996
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To Better Understand Possible Effects…
We need to know
• Elasticities of trip demand with respect to speed and distance
• Cross-elasticities among modes– How changes for one mode (eg in distance)
affects demand for other modes
• Differentiate by trip purpose
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Net Utility Approach
• Extending beyond Crane…
• The Built Environment influences disutility and utility
Maat et al, 2005
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Stylized Effects of Travel Time Changes
Maat et al, 200524
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Stylized Effects of Mode Changes
Maat et al, 200525
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Net Utility Framework
• Land uses influence net utility: – Positive utility = activity realization– Negative utility (disutility) = travel cost
• Extends beyond Crane– Reveals a dual ambiguity of land use’s influences
• Uncertain influence on trip costs (disutility), thus travel• Uncertain influence on activities (utility), thus travel
• What happens with saved time? A. Invest in going to higher utility destinationsB. Carry out more activitiesC. Dedicate more time per activity– Travel demand increases with? – A and B– Consistent with…. constant travel time budgets (e.g., Schafer, 2000).
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TB = f (BE)? Empirical Challenges: Unclear
pathways of effectsTransport-EfficientNeighborhood
Transport-EfficientBehavior
Transport-EfficientPreferences
Spatial cognition, etc…
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A “Macro-Level” ExampleNetherlands
Policy Land Use Behavior
(Schawen et al, 2004)
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National-Level Planning PoliciesNetherlands• 1970s-1980s
– “concentrated decentralization”• 1980s
– “compact urban growth”– with urban renewal subsidies
• 1990s– “A-B-C location policy”
• A: centrally located sites• B: outside CBDs, but still public transport connected• C: highway-oriented sites• Challenge: growth in service/office sector
• Retail policy• Overall: mixed success
– Primarily guiding residential and retail development29
Schwanen et al, 2004.30
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Netherlands: Estimated Effects?
• Data– Travel
• One-day travel survey (NTS)
• Male/female Head of Household
– Land Uses• Macro: urban structure (mono-, poly-centric)
• Meso: degree of urbanization
• Travel Effects– Mode Choice
– Distance and time
Schwanen et al, 2004.31
Netherlands: Conclusions & Recs
Schwanen et al, 2004.32
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“Micro-Scale” Effects
Meta-Analysis, Case Study (Jinan)
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Meta-Analysis: Elasticities of Walking with respect to BE
Ewing and Cervero, 2010.34
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Meta-Analysis: Elasticities of Transit Use with respect to BE
Ewing and Cervero, 2010.35
Micro-level Example: BE and BRT Pedestrian Catchment Area (PCA) in Jinan China
(Jiang et al, 2012)
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Arterial- Edge Corridor(Jingshi St.)
1
(Jiang 2010)
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Integrated- Boulevard Corridor(Lishan Rd.)
2
(Jiang 2010)38
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Below- Expressway Corridor(Beiyuan St.)
3(Jiang 2010)
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Approach
, , , ;
• Station area user survey
• Built Environment Analysis
• Regression
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CORRIDOR WALKABILITYA BRT Users’ Perspective
29%33% 33%
26% 26% 28%
18%24% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Crossing is safe. Crossing is easy. Walking on sidewalksis safe.
Arterial-edge(n=464)
Integrated-boulevard(n=356)
Below-expressway(n=946)
41
Unsafe crossing, poor signals…
(Jiang 2010)42
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Distance… (Jiang 2010)43
(Jiang 2010)44
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CORRIDOR WALKABILITYA BRT Users’ Perspective
69%
47% 45%50%
33%
24%
38%35%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pavement is good. Streets are clean. Few blockages are onsidewalks.
Arterial-edge(n=464)
Integrated-boulevard(n=356)
Below-expressway(n=946)
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CORRIDOR WALKABILITYA BRT Users’ Perspective
48%
42%
70%
58%
39%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Trees on sidewalks makewalking comfortable.
Facilities along streetsmeet my demand.
Arterial-edge(n=464)
Integrated-boulevard(n=356)
Below-expressway(n=946)
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Walk next to trees…Arterial-Edge Corridor
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(Jiang 2010)
Walk under trees…Integrated-Boulevard Corridor
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(Jiang 2010)
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Walk without trees…Below-Expressway Corridor 49
(Jiang 2010)
475
647
582
329
501459
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Avg Walking Distance
Avg Straight-line Distance
(m)
DetourFactor 1.59 1.36 1.33
CORRIDOR WALKABILITYDirectness
Walking distance
Straight-linedistance
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
1500
1650
1800
1950
2100
2250
2400
2550
2700
2850
3000
3150
3300
3450
3600
3750
3900
Percentage
of BRT riders
Access/Egress Walking Distance (m)
Terminal Station
Transfer Station
Typical Station
Station Function vs. Access/Egress Walking Distance
Walking Distance (m) Typical Station Transfer Station Terminal Station
Mean 547 587 1365
Median 435 458 1311
Maximum 2738 2067 5114
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
1500
1650
1800
1950
2100
2250
2400
2550
2700
2850
3000
3150
3300
3450
3600
3750
3900
Percentage
of BRT riders
Access/Egress Walking Distance (m)
Arterial‐Edge
Integrated‐Boulevard
Below‐Expressway
Corridor Type vs. Access/Egress Walking Distance(non-terminal stations only)
Walking Distance (m) Arterial‐Edge Integrated‐Boulevard Below‐Expressway
Mean 475 649 580
Median 412 520 458
Maximum 1635 2023 2738
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Potentially confounding factors
Trip Maker• Age• Gender• Car Ownership• Household Income • Occupation• Frequent BRT User or not
Trip• Purpose• Time• Alternative Mode Availability• In Group or not
System• Level of Service• Transit Fare
Station Context• Station Function (terminal, transfer?)• Distance to City Center • Density Gradient• Connectivity (Feeder road length)• Level of Feeder-bus Service
No need control because BRT riders are granted free transfer between BRT lines and thus using the same system per se.
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Catchment Area Density Gradient: Hill/ Valley/ Flat
Hill Pattern (convex) Valley Pattern (concave)
BRT
BRT
Station 3 Station 8
STATION CONTEXT
Source: http://jinan.edushi.com/54
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E(Walk Distance) = 600 + 150 *(Integrated_Boulevard_Corridor)+ 400 *(Terminal_Station) - 100 *(Transfer_Station) - 150 *(Density_Hill) + 150 *(Density_Valley) + 50 *(Distance_to_Center in km)
Radial Distance Guidelines for Pedestrian Zones around BRT Stations AND RRT Stations
Radial Distance (meters)
Corridor Type Terminal Station Non‐terminal Station
BRT Arterial‐Edge 600‐1000 300‐600
BRT Integrated‐Boulevard 1000‐1500 600‐1000
BRT Below‐Express 800‐1200 400‐800
RRT Underground 1200 700‐900
RRT Elevated 1300 800‐1000
Jiang et al, 2012; Zhao & Deng, 2013
E(Walk Distance) = 900*(Underground typical sta.)+ 300 *(Terminal_Station) + 100 *(Elevated Station) - 100 *(if Transfer station) + 10 *(Distance_to_Center in km)
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E(Walk Distance) = 600 + 150 *(Integrated_Boulevard_Corridor)+ 400 *(Terminal_Station) - 100 *(Transfer_Station) - 150 *(Density_Hill) + 150 *(Density_Valley) + 50 *(Distance_to_Center in km)
Radial Distance Guidelines for Pedestrian Zones around BRT Stations AND RRT Stations
Radial Distance (meters)
Corridor Type Terminal Station Non‐terminal Station
BRT Arterial‐Edge 600‐1000 300‐600
BRT Integrated‐Boulevard 1000‐1500 600‐1000
BRT Below‐Express 800‐1200 400‐800
RRT Underground 1200 700‐900
RRT Elevated 1300 800‐1000
Jiang et al, 2012; Zhao & Deng, 2013
E(Walk Distance) = 900*(Underground typical sta.)+ 300 *(Terminal_Station) + 100 *(Elevated Station) - 100 *(if Transfer station) + 10 *(Distance_to_Center in km)
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Terminal station presents a unique opportunity for large transit-oriented development…
RECOMMENDATIONS
(Jiang 2010)57
This probably will NOT work…
(Jiang 2010)
RECOMMENDATIONS
58
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Make crossing safer…
(Jiang 2010)59
Put more trees and stores along the sidewalk in an appropriate way…
(Jiang 2010)60
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Jinan: Key Takeaways
• BRT Operators should be encouraged to push for designs that increase their PCA
• That, in turn, may further influence urban development possibilities…..
61
Land Use = f (Transport)?
Muller, 2004
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Rail Transit Effects (Baum-Snow & Kahn, 2000; See Appendix 1)
Aims
1. How new rail transit attracts commute trips to transit
2. Which demographic groups benefit most from rail improvements
3. Rail transit influence on land values
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Possible Rail Transit Effects
• Existing Residents Switch to Rail
• New Residents Move into Transit Tracts
• Property Values Increase
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Results: Transit Use
• There is some Tiebout migration of transit users to tracts– i.e., “self-selection”– Migration rates are higher in tracts with increased
transit access• Induced transit-oriented development
• Also, transit-shifting by existing residents– In fact, most mode shift due to this effect
• Overall effects…– Small 1.4% increase in transit with a 2 km decrease
in distance to transit (from 3 to 1 km)
65
Results: Transit Capitalization & User Groups
• 3 km to 1 km decrease in transit distance increases rents by $19/month, house value by $5,000– More gain in travel time savings: $1,200/year
• College educated and home-owners more likely to be in census tracts closer to transit
66
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More recent analysis (USA)
• Bus+rail services [seats per capita] -together and almost equally - increase downtown employment
• Downtown wages increase
• Metropolitan area productivity increases
67
Chatman, 2013
How to “get” TOD? Land policies of relevance
• parking restrictions
• land assembly
• high-density zoning
And, proper corridor alignment…
And, proper economic environment
• Growth, demand for density
Handy, 2005 68
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Would Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Effects and Needs be
the Same?
69
Back to Theoretical Impacts
Users
• Revealed Preference (Washington, DC)• Local bus, express bus, commuter rail, metro in
Washington, DC
• Stated Preference (Boston)• Bus, light rail in Boston
“rail and bus services which provide similar service attributes have the same ridership
attraction”Ben-Akiva and Morikawa, 200270
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Back to Theoretical Impacts
User
• In New Jersey, USA: LRT– It’s the form, not the rail
– In fact, regular bus, stronger behavioral effects than rail, after form-controls
• better bus service relaxation of parking, zoning & other development restrictions key
Chatman, 2013 71
Back to Theoretical Impacts
• Developers (24 interviews in Minnesota)– Transit (bus and rail) = secondary benefit
– Bus and rail both seen positively
– Bus transit referenced “slightly more often than” LRT and TOD
– Conventional bus neighborhoods often mentioned
• “employers focus more on current transit options in site selection than on proposed future options.”
72Fan and Guthrie, 2013
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Developer Perceptions
• Los Angeles Sustainable Transit Communities Scorecard, 2011– 13 BRT + 36 Rail sites– Orange Line BRT sites
“development potential” ranked 3, 8, 12, 19, and 20
– BRT sites’ overall rankings lower due to suburban character and lack of walkability
More info at: http://www.compassblueprint.org/Documents/CBResources/LA_Sustainable_Transit_Communities_Scorecard.pdf.
73
BRTOD Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
• Speed and cost of implementation
• Flexibility, adaptability, extendability
Weaknesses
Judy, 200774
• Poor image of buses
• Little technical knowledge and empirical evidence
• Real externalities (noise, AQ)
• Perceived externalities (noise, AQ, crime)
• Perceived (real?) impermanence
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BRTOD
Empirical Evidence
75
Curitiba: BRTOD “poster child” (See Appendix 2)
Land Use-Transportation Integration from Beginning: A “Linear City”:
• Promote densification of land uses on axes– Zoning, Regulations, Incentives
• Focusing urban expansion along structural axes– Centered on busways
76
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Transmilenio
(Rodriguez and Targa, 2004; see Appendix 3)
77
~Current Network
114 Stations; 84 Kms; 1263 vehicles; 27 km/h; 200K peak hour passengers83 Feeder routes; 516 feeder buses
78
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Hidalgo, 2006.
Calle 13 – Av. Caracas
79
Vehicles
Graftieaux, 2005.80
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Stations
Graftieaux, 2005.81
1.5 km buffer
82
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Results
• Elasticity of rent with respect to BRT stop dist.– -0.16 to -0.22
• Every five minutes from BRT stop, rent declines by US$15
• Elasticity of rent with respect to BRT Corridor– 0.19 to 0.21
• Every 100 meters from corridor, rent goes up by US$77 83
Comparing Results
• Results (in terms of % change in property value) fairly comparable to – Los Angeles Blue Line
– DC WMATA
• Slightly lower than San Diego (LRT) and UK Tramlink (Manchester)
• Estimated absolute premium (annualizing rents)– US$440-650 per 100 meters
– Roughly Double the Baum-Snow & Kahn Effect (measured from 3 to 1 km change)
84
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Other Notes and Commentary
• No apparent Regional Accessibility Benefit
• Short time frame of analysis may mean conservative estimate
• Cross-sectional analysis
• Corridor effect might be confounded– By other traffic
• But, station effects might also be confounded– E.g., urban recovery
• Residential land only
85
Urban Recovery
Hidalgo, 2006.86
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Commercial Development
Hidalgo, 2006.
87
Commercial Development
Hidalgo, 2006.
88
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Increasing # of BRT “land” value studies• Seoul (Cervero and Kang, 2009)
– Residential: 5-10% premium within 300 meters of BRT stop
– Non-residential: 3-26% premium within 150 meters of BRT stop
• Pittsburgh (Perk and Catalá, 2009)
– Residential properties: $60/meter at 30 meters; $6/m at 300 meters
• Boston condo sales (Perk, et al., 2013)
– Immediate drop, then increase, 7.6% premium
89
Seoul’s BRT Amenity
Cervero and Kang, 2009
90
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Canoga Orange Line Station (LA)
91
Canoga Orange Line Station
92
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Getting to BRTOD• Transit Service
– Interconnectedness
– Station/route location/alignment
– Public investment in transit system
• Area Design/Development– “Right” development policies
– Station-area walkability
– Public investment in station areas
• Institutionality– Regional planning/ coordination
– Integrated land use-transit decision-making93
Judy, 2007
94
Transit = f (BE): Summary• Consider the geographical scale of analysis/intervention
– Generally, theory implies same types of effects, operating at different scales
• Theoretically, impacts are ambiguous• Complexity of LUT relationships increases with society’s
complexities– Time routines, age, family cycle, etc.– Keep in mind the type of potential activities (e.g., trip purpose) and
related spatial and temporal constraints
• Simple consideration: BE influence on walk influence to station access
© P. Christopher Zegras 9/24/2013
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BE = f (Transit): In Summary• Public Transit and BRT, in right conditions, will
influence urban form
• Land Value effects are consistently seen
• Institutional barriers to land value capture (LVC)
– Including poor transport finance pictures
• LVC not a panacea– Realistic amount to raise, will be modest, in most cases
– Ex-ante system in place (before build/expand)
• Need to better understand BRT’s particular urban design challenges/opportunities – (see PUC-MIT BRT Corridor Design Workshop)
95
BRT Design Workshop
Image courtesy of Team 2, Assn3 (18 Sept, 2013): Soledad Guerrero, Amalia Holub, Markus Niehaus, Sue Pot, Dany Ríos, Anson Stewart 96
© P. Christopher Zegras 9/24/2013
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Acknowledgments
You: For listening
Anson Stewart: for research contributions
97
Appendix 1
Baum-Snow and Kahn
98
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Approach
• Case Studies– Expansions
• Boston, Chicago
– Comprehensive New Networks• Atlanta, Washington, DC
– Incremental Expansion• Portland, OR
99
Data
• Census Tract Data
• Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS)– 1% sample, micro data
• Constructed Transit Coverages to represent system changes (1980-1990)– Show declines in mean tract distance from
transit (all cities): 5 km to 3 km
100
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Analytical Approach
• Transit Use: 3 models1. Use = f (Tract Distance)2. Change in use = f (Change in Tract Distance)3. Change in use = f (Change in Tract Distance,
Migration)
• Transit Capitalization– “Hedonic” home price capitalization– Change in home price = f (change in distance)
• Transit Beneficiaries– Change in Distance to Transit = f (demographics)
101
Relative Suburban Benefits from Rail Transit
Baum-Snow & Kahn, 2005.
Pub
lic T
rans
it U
se b
y D
ecad
e fo
r 16
Citi
es
that
Exp
ande
d R
ail T
rans
it (1
970-
2000
)
102
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Some Problems with Baum-Snow & Kahn
• City fixed effects– Transit markets/service very local
• Ignore other investments/policies occurring at same time– E.g., highway investments– And their expansionary effects
• Rail transit almost certainly retains central city vitality– Not captured in their model– No employment effects captured in model
• Commute trips only• Possible issues with using census tract…
See, e.g., Voith, 2005.103
Appendix 2
Details on Curitiba’s Land Use Policies
104
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Land Use Policies• Zoning Regulations within 2-blocks of
structural arteries– Residential FAR: up to 4– Office FAR: up to 5– Directly abutting buildings: First two floors can
extend directly to property lines– At least 50% of ground and second floors
must be commercial-retail• Not counted towards FARs
– Above 2nd Floor: 5 meter setback required
Cervero, 1998.105
Land Use Policies• Transferable Development Rights (TDRs)
– Within Curitiba Historic Area
• Transit-Supportive Housing Policies– Direct community-assisted housing towards
transportation corridors
– Additional residential density permitted with contributions to low-income housing fund
• Contributions = 75% of market value of add’l area
• Only allowed in residential zones within walking distance of busways
Cervero, 1998.106
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Residential Densities Along Structural Axes and Adjoining Neighborhoods
TCRP, 2003.107
Appendix 3
Transmilenio apartment rent price effects
108
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Transmilenio BRT: Land Effects?
• Estimate Effects on Property Values– Hedonic Model
• Rental Properties– Feb-Apr, 2002 – Field visits and newspaper adds– All properties for rent – 494 multifamily residential properties
• Dependent variable– Asking price
• Influencing variables (of interest)– Accessibility (local and regional)
109
Accessibility: How Measured?• Local
– Shortest walking time on road network from location of each property to closest BRT
• Regional– Line-haul travel time from closest BRT station to
Financial District– Line-haul travel time from closest BRT station to
Financial District Downtown– Weighted index of travel time to all BRT stations
• Weighted by the number of passengers travelling between each pairs
110
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Other Variables
• Proximity effects– Straight line distance to corridor
– To capture possible negative externalities
• Control variables– Apartment: Size, # bedrooms, age, etc.
– Location: buffer with spatial average of zone attributes
• Crime, socioeconomic, demographic, land uses, etc.
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Appendix 4Transit Land Value Capture
An Example Policy Implication (rail-based) in Chicago USA
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Chicago: Hedonic Model, CTA Station Access
p = f (I, N, T)
where:
p is the property sales price; I is a vector of attributes of the improvements on the parcel, such as number of bathrooms, number of floors, and age, etc.; N is a vector of attributes of the neighborhood, such as quality of public facilities and services (including schools) and socioeconomic characteristics; and, T is a combined vector of attributes of the transportation-related locational accessibility of the parcel, such as proximity to transportation services (including transit), relative accessibility to opportunities across the broader metropolitan area, etc.
Zegras et al. 2013a, 113
Zegras et al. 2013a, 114
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Zegras et al. 2013a, 115
Variation in Elasticity of Property Value with Respect to Walking Time Based on Properties’
Walk Times to CTA Station
Zegras et al. 2013a, 116
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Land-Based Finance Mechanisms
Derived from Lari et al, 2009117
Rail Transit Value Capture Potential: Chicago, Lisbon
Zegras et al 2013b118
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