THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS OF FOREIGN POLICY

Pol Sci 530

Jack S. Levy Rutgers University Spring 2000Hickman 304 732/932-1073 office; 247-5315 home; jacklevy@rci.rutgers.eduOffice Hours: T1-3 and by appointment

This is a seminar on foreign policy analysis. We examine avariety of alternative theoretical explanations for how statesmake foreign policy, with an emphasis on the foreign policydecision-making process. We explore how foreign policy isformulated and implemented, and we focus more on policy inputsand conversion processes than on policy outputs. Our orientationis more theoretical and process-oriented than substantive orinterpretive. An important assumption underlying this course isthat the processes through which foreign policy is made have aconsiderable impact on the substantive content of that policy.

We adopt a levels-of-analysis framework to organize acritical analysis of alternative approaches to the study offoreign policy-making, and in the process we examine rationalstate actor, bureaucratic/organizational, societal, andpsychological models. We look at the government decision-makers,organizations, social groups, and mass publics that have animpact on foreign policy. We analyze the various constraintswithin which each of these sets of actors must operate, thenature of their interactions with each other and with the societyas a whole, and the processes and mechanisms through which theyresolve their differences and formulate policy.

Although most of our reading is American and although someof it deals explicitly and exclusively with American foreignpolicy, most of these conceptual frameworks are much more generaland not restricted to the United States. One question that willrepeatedly arise is the extent to which our hypotheses and modelscan be generalized to other countries and cultures. In that sensethis is basically a course in comparative foreign policy, and Iencourage students to bring comparative perspectives to bear onclass readings and discussions.

Any course must emphasize some things and deemphasizeothers, so let me mention some of the biases built into thisseminar. First, we focus primarily on internal rather thanexternal variables -- not because internal factors arenecessarily more important, but rather because external variablesare covered at length in other international relations courses.Second, we give only minimal attention to institutions such asthe U.S. Departments of State or Defense, the National SecurityCouncil, or the Congress. This is due to time constraints, to myjudgment that the field is now giving more attention to processmodels and to more general institutional models, and to an

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interest in more generalizable models of the foreign policyprocess that are valid across states. Third, we give significantemphasis to decision-making by top political leaders, for acentral theme in the course is the strength and limitations ofrationalist models of foreign policy. In the process we will readsome of the rational choice literature and a lot of literaturefrom social psychology, which is one of the most importantsources of critiques of rationalist models. Finally, there aremore applications to the literature on security than politicaleconomy. which reflects the state of the literature.

Readings: The following required books (all paperback) areavailable for purchase at the Student Coop Bookstore (DouglassCampus). I have also placed most of them on reserve at AlexanderLibrary, but I strongly recommend that you purchase them if atall possible.

Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. 2nd ed. New York:Addison Wesley Longman, 1999.

Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in InternationalPolitics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976.

Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics andInternational Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell UniversityPress, 1991.

Ole R. Holsti, Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy.Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996.

Paul 't Hart, Groupthink in Government: A Study of SmallGroups and Policy Failure. Baltimore: Johns HopkinsUniversity Press, 1990.

Alexander L. George & Juliette L. George, PresidentialPersonality & Performance. Boulder, Col.: Westview,1998.

David A.Lake and Robert Powell, eds., Strategic Choice andInternational Relations. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1999.

We will also be reading a substantial number of articles andbook chapters, for much of the important theory and research inforeign policy has been published in this form. There will be noformal reading packet, but the required articles will beavailable for photocopying. I will put some of these articles onreserve in the Graduate Reading Room at Alexander library, butthe library's policies are so restrictive (maximum of twentyitems per course; copyright permissions for each) that you willnot be able to rely exclusively on the library.

Course Requirements:

I expect each member of the seminar to complete all of therequired reading prior to each class meeting and to come prepared

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to discuss that material. I have tried to organize the seminar ina way that ensures a proper breadth of coverage of "mainstream"topics yet allows each student to pursue his or her own scholarlyinterests, and for that reason I have been flexible in settingformal requirements for the class. The standard or "default"requirement, probably suitable to most first-year students andperhaps for non-IR majors, consists of two critical reviews ofdistinct bodies of literature on the course outline, along withan oral presentation based on each. I will help identify thosetopics that would be particularly useful (to you and to the classas a whole). Ideally, you should pick a topic that either helpsyou prepare for comprehensive exams or ties into other researchprojects that you are doing or would like to do.

If you are a more advanced student, you can pursue the two-literature-review requirement if you can convince me that it isin your research-related interests to do so, but in most cases(particularly for IR majors) I would encourage you to substitutea well-developed research design (if you are just beginning) orfull-fledged research paper project (if you are further along),particularly if you are planning on writing a dissertationrelating to foreign policy-making (or policy-making moregenerally). In addition to the presentation of your researchdesign/project to the class, I will expect you to make anotherpresentation to the class on a mutually agreeable topic. Thismight involve a brief summary and critique of the literature on acertain topic, though in most cases I would not expect you to gomuch beyond the required readings for the class.

Each literature review should be a 12-15 page (double space)critical review of the literature on a well-defined theoreticalquestion in foreign policy analysis, often but not alwaysequivalent to a subsection of the syllabus. Examples mightinclude organizational process models, learning models, smallgroup decision-making, the "new institutionalism" and foreignpolicy, public opinion and foreign policy, prospect theory andforeign policy, framing and problem representation, models ofentrapment, foreign policy-making in developing states,constructivist and postmodern approaches to foreign policy,feminist theories of foreign policy, among others. In order toavoid misunderstandings, however, you must secure approval foryour topics from me in advance.

The required and optional readings from the relevant sectionof the course reading list will in many cases serve as a usefulguide to the literature on any given topic, but please consult mefor suggestions as to possible additions to the list (if the liston the syllabus is short) and/or priorities among them (if thenumber of items is quite large) Please do not assume that byreading all of the items in a particular section of the syllabusyou have adequately covered a particular topic for your review. I

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encourage you to incorporate material from other courses.

In your review you should summarize the literature on yourtopic and at the same time organize it in some coherent way(preferably around a useful typology or theoretical theme, notaround a succession of books and articles). You should note thetheoretical questions that this literature attempts to answer,identify the key concepts and causal arguments, note some of theempirical research that bears on these theoretical propositions,and relate it to the broader literature on foreign policy-makingand international relations. You should identify the logicalinconsistencies, broader analytical limitations, and unansweredquestions of the leading scholarship in this area, and you shouldsuggest fruitful areas for subsequent research. If you areuncertain as to what I am looking for in a critical review, Iwould be happy to loan you a sample paper from a previous course.

I expect rigorous analytical thinking that is well-groundedin the literature. You should include citations and a list ofreferences. You may use either a "scientific" style (withparenthetical in-text citations) or a more traditionalbibliographic style (as reflected in the Chicago Manual ofStyle), but just be consistent. Note that I want a separatebibliography even if a traditional footnoting style is used. Iprefer footnotes to endnotes, but endnotes are also acceptable.See various journals for illustrations.

The presentation based on each literature review will bescheduled for the day we discuss that topic in class. Dependingon student selections of topics, there may be some minoralterations in the preliminary schedule suggested in thesyllabus. In your talk you will also have the opportunity torespond to questions from the class. The formal part of the talkwill be 15-20 minutes (rigorously enforced), and the informaldiscussion will go on for a while beyond that. I do not expectyou to turn in your paper at the time of your presentation, andin fact I will refuse to accept your paper at that time. Rather,I expect you to benefit from the feedback from class discussionand incorporate it into your paper.

Research projects may take a variety of forms, from aresearch design to carrying out the empirical research. In theresearch design (20-25 pages) you should identify the questionyou are trying to answer, ground it in the theoretical literatureand in competing analytical approaches, specify your keyhypotheses, offer a theoretical explanation for those hypotheses,and provide a detailed statement as to how you would carry outthe research. This includes the specification of the dependentand independent variables and the form of the relationshipbetween them, the operationalization of the variables, theidentification (and theoretical justification) of the empirical

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domain of the study (i.e., case selection), and an acknowledgmentof what kinds of evidence would confirm your hypotheses and whatkinds of evidence would disconfirm or falsify your hypotheses. Aword of advice: I am generally quite open to differentperspectives, but I have a strong bias against non-testablehypotheses, those for which no conceivable evidence that wouldlead us to reject or at least lose confidence in the hypothesis.This doesn’t mean that you have to actually test your hypotheses;only that the hypotheses must be testable in principle.

I suspect that those beginning a new project will not getbeyond the research design stage for the class, while thosecontinuing earlier work might very well be able to carry theresearch through to its conclusion, either by the end of the termor within a reasonable period afterwards. You should understandthat I have high standards for the research designs. I think ofthem as roughly equivalent to dissertation proposals or grantproposals. As to your presentation based on the research, consultwith me, but in most cases I prefer that you emphasize (in thepresentation) the literature review and research design phase ofthe project rather than on findings. We will schedule thesepresentations for late in the term, though if it fits earlier andif you are ready at that time we could go earlier (which would bea good way for you to get feedback on your project).

Paper Due Datesliterature reviews -- three weeks after your presentation, or

Friday May 5, whichever comes first.research papers -- Friday, May 5

GradingFor those of you pursuing the literature review option, each

paper will be equally weighted, and for each the presentationcounts for about a third and the paper two-thirds. For those ofyou pursuing the research design/project option, the paper isworth about 70% and each of your presentations 15%. My standardsare somewhat lower for papers/presentations on topics that ariseearly in the term, so please do not be deterred from selectingearly topics. Although I do not attach an explicit weight to it,the quality and quantity of your contribution to class discussionwill also be an important factor in my evaluation of yourperformance in the course, and it may be decisive in anyborderline case.

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TOPICAL OUTLINE(number refers to week of the term, beginning with week of 1/17)

1. no meeting; Martin Luther King holiday2-I. Course Introduction 2-II. Introductory Theoretical Considerations

Preliminary Questions of Scope and MethodThe Decision-Making ApproachThe Levels of Analysis FrameworkOverviews of Alternative Models of Foreign PolicymakingIssue-Areas

3-I. The Rational (Analytic) ModelGeneral ApproachesExpected-Utility TheoryPreference Aggregation and Social Choice TheoryPreferences, Structures, and Strategic ChoiceDebates over Rational Choice

3-II. A Realist Theory of Foreign Policy?4-I. Governmental-Level Explanations

Allison’s Governmental Politics ModelThe Organizational Process/Cybernetic ModelOrganizational Theory: Background

Governmental Politics/Organizational Process:ApplicationsEvaluation of the Governmental/Organizational ModelsOther Models of Political Structures and Foreign Policy

4-II. Governmental Institutions and American Foreign PolicyThe State DepartmentOrganizational ReformCongressConstitutional IssuesThe MilitaryComparative PerspectivesPresidential and Parliamentary Systems

5. Societal-Level TheoriesIntroductionNeo-Marxist TheoriesTheories of the Military-Industrial ComplexInterest Groups and Coalitional PoliticsSectional Explanations

6. Public OpinionThe MediaPolitical Culture, Identity, Ideology, and Ideas

Empirical Applications of Cultural FrameworksStrategic Culture

7. The Foreign Policies of Democracies: Explanations of the Democratic Peace

Political OppositionsThe Sources of Scapegoating

Social Identity TheoryForeign Policy Applications

Domestic Politics and Security Policy: Other Applications8. Psychological Theories

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Theoretical Overview and Rationale Early Psychological Approaches to Foreign Policy Analysis

Information Processing Approaches: Cognitive Structure Beliefs and Images

Operational CodeCognitive Mapping

9. Cognitive ProcessesPolitical Science ApplicationsHeuristics and Biases Is Information Processing Data-Driven or Theory-Driven?

Motivational ModelsCrisis Decision-Making and the Impact of StressThreat Perception and Intelligence Failure

10. Personality Theories and Political BiographyAlexander George’s Research ProgramOther Approaches to PsychobiographyOther Personality ModelsPsychoanalytic Studies of War

11. Theories of Small Group BehaviorGeneral Studies GroupthinkChoice Shifts

12-I. Theories of LearningBayesian Updating"Psychological" Models of Learning

Empirical ApplicationsEvolutionary Models of LearningOther Models of Foreign Policy Change

12-II Methodological Problems in Analyzing Psychological Models13. Behavioral Theories of Judgment and Decision-making

Introduction to Behavioral Decision TheoryProspect TheoryFraming Aspiration LevelsSunk Costs and Models of Entrapment

Dollar Auction ModelsDecision RulesTime Horizons and Intertemporal Choice

14. Strategic Choice15-I Foreign Policy-Making in Developing States15-II Remaining PresentationsAppendices

Early Approaches to Foreign Policy AnalysisThe "Comparative Foreign Policy" Research ProgramSome Useful Anthologies

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COURSE OUTLINE AND READING LIST

Number indicates week of semester; letter indicates multiple topics in a given week; asterisk (*) denotes required reading.

6. (January 17) No class. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

2-I. COURSE INTRODUCTION (January 24)course objectives, organization, procedures, readings,

requirements, etc.overview of field

2-II INTRODUCTORY THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS

2a. Preliminary Questions of Scope and Method* Terrence Ball, "Is There Progress in Political Science?" In

Terence Ball, ed., Idioms of Inquiry. Albany: StateUniversity of New York Press, 1987. Chap. 1.

* Jack S. Levy, "Too Important to Leave to the Other: Historyand Political Science in the Study of InternationalRelations." International Security 22 (Summer 1997), 22-33.

Eugene Meehan, "The Concept 'Foreign Policy.'" In WilliamHanrieder, ed., Comparative Foreign Policy. New York:David McKay, 1971. Ch. 9.

* James N. Rosenau, "Comparative Foreign Policy: One-timeFad, Realized Fantasy, and Normal Field." In James N.Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy, rev. ed.London: Frances Pinter, 1980. Chap. 5.

2b. The Decision-Making Approach Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, "The

Decision-Making Approach to the Study of InternationalPolitics," in James N. Rosenau, ed., InternationalPolitics and Foreign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1961.Chap. 20. Reprinted in Rosenau, International Relationsand Foreign Policy, rev. ed. (1969), chap. 19.

* James N. Rosenau, "The Premises and Promises of Decision-Making Analysis," in Rosenau, The Scientific Study ofForeign Policy, ch. 12.

Peter Bachrach and Morton S. Baratz, "Decisions andNondecisions: An Analytical Framework." AmericanPolitical Science Review, 57 (1963), pp. 632-42.

Paul A. Anderson, "What Do Decision Makers Do When TheyMake a Foreign Policy Decision? The Implications for theComparative Study of Foreign Policy." Charles F. Hermann,Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and James N. Rosenau, eds. New

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Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy. Boston: Allen& Unwin, 1987. Ch. 15.

see also appendices 1 & 2 on Early Approaches to ForeignPolicy Analysis and on The "Comparative Foreign Policy"Research Program.

2c. The Levels of Analysis Framework* Kenneth Waltz, Man, the State, and War. New York: Columbia

Univeristy Press, 1959. chap. 1Arnold Wolfers, "The Actors in International Politics," in

Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration. Baltimore: JohnsHopkins University Press, 1962. Chap. 1.

* J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Politics," in Rosenau, ed., InternationalPolitics and Foreign Policy (1969), chap. 7.

James N. Rosenau, "Pre-Theories and Theories of ForeignPolicy." In R. B. Farrell, ed., Approaches to Comparativeand International Politics. Evanston, Ill.: NorthwesternUniversity Press, 1966; also in Rosenau, Scientific Studyof Foreign Policy, chap. 6.

* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Chap. 1.* G. John Ikenberry, David A. Lake, and Michael Mastanduno,

"Introduction: approaches to explaining American foreigneconomic policy."International Organization, 42/1 (Winter1988), pp. 1-14.

* Alexander E. Wendt, "The agent-structure problem ininternational relations theory." InternationalOrganization 41 (Summer 1987):335-70.

David Dessler, "What's at Stake in the Agent-StructureDebate?" International Organization, 43 (1989): 441-73.

Barry Buzan, "The Levels of Analysis Problem in IRReconsidered." In In Booth and Steve Smith eds.,International Relations Theory Today

Walter Carlnaes, "The Agency-Structure Problem in ForeignPolicy Analysis." International Studies Quarterly, 36(September 1992), pp. 245-70.

William Roberts Clark, "Agents and Structures: Two Views ofPreferences, Two Views of Institutions." InternationalStudies Quarterly, 42, 2 (June 1998), 245-270.

Gil Friedman and Harvey Starr, Agency, Structure, andInternational Relations: From Ontology to EmpiricalInquiry. New York: Routledge, 1997.

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2d. Overviews of Alternative Models of Foreign PolicymakingBernard C. Cohen and Scott A. Harris, "Foreign Policy." In

Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds., Handbookof Political Science, vol. 6: Policies and Policymaking.Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975. Chap. 7.

Stephen D. Krasner, Defending the National Interest.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978. Chap. 1.

Janice Gross Stein and Raymond Tanter. Rational Decision-making. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1980. Chap. 2.

John Odell, U.S. Monetary Policy. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1982, Chap. 2.

Zeev Maoz, National Choices and International Processes.New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Chap. 5.

Ole R. Holsti, "Models of International Relations andForeign Policy." In G. John Ikenberry, ed., AmericanForeign Policy. New York: HarperCollins, 1996. Pp. 66-92.

Michael J. Hogan and Thomas G. Paterson, eds., Explainingthe History of American Foreign Relations. New York:Cambridge University Press, 1991.

2e. Issue-AreasJames N. Rosenau, "Foreign Policy as an Issue-Area," in

James N. Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy,chap. 17; or Rosenau, ed., Domestic Sources of ForeignPolicy, chap. 2.

William Zimmerman, "Issue-Areas and Foreign PolicyProcesses." American Political Science Review 67(December 1973):1204-12.

Richard W. Mansbach and John A. Vasquez, In Search ofTheory. New York: Coulmbia University Press, 1981. Chap.2-3.

Matthew Evangelista, "Issue-area and foreign policyrevisited." International Organization 43 (Winter1989):147-71.

John A Vasquez, "The Tangibility of Issues and GlobalConflict: A Test of Rosenau's Issue Area Typology."Journal of Peace Research 20/2 (1983):179-92.

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3. THE "RATIONAL" (ANALYTIC) MODEL (January 31)

3a. General Approaches* Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision, Intro & ch. 1-2.

(focus on the theory chapters in Allison) John D. Steinbruner, The Cybernetic Theory of Decision.

Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974, Chap. 1-2.Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign

Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice.Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1980. Introduction (p. 1-14).

Zeev Maoz, National Choices and International Processes.New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Pp. 149-78.

3b. Expected Utility Theory * Abelson and Levi, "Decision Making and Decision Theory,"

pp. 243-46.* James D. Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientists.

Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. Chap. 2.Robyn M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. San

Diego: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1988. Chap. 8.

3c. Preference Aggregation and Social Choice TheoryKenneth J. Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values. 2nd

ed. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1963.* Robert Abrams, Foundations of Political Analysis. New York:

Columbia University Press, 1980. Chap. 2.* Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap. New Haven: Yale

University Press, 1981. Pp. 12-18.

3d. Preferences, Structures, and Strategic Choice* David A. Lake and Robert Powell, "International Relations:

A Strategic Choice Approach." In Lake and Powell, eds.,Strategic Choice and International Relations. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1999.

* Helen V. Milner, "Rationalizing Politics: The EmergingSynthesis of International, American, and ComparativePolitics." International Organization, 52, 4 (Autumn1998), 759-86

(see also section 14 on strategic choice)

3e. Debates over Rational Choice Milton Friedman, "The Methodology of Positive Economics."

In Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago:University of Chicago Press, 1953.

Terry M. Moe, "On the Scientific Status of RationalModels." American Journal of Political Science 23(February 1979): 215-43.

David Lalman, Oppenheimer, and Swistak, "Formal RationalChoice Theory: A Cumulative Science of Politics." In AdaFinifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the

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Discipline II. Washington, D.C.: American PoliticalScience Association, 1993. Pp. 77-104.

Gabriel A. Almond, "Rational Choice Theory and the SocialSciences." In Kristen R. Monroe, The Economic Approach toPolitics: A Critical Reassessment of the Theory ofRational Action. New York: HarperCollins, 1991. Pp. 32-52.

Jon Elster, ed., Rational Choice. New York: New YorkUniversity Press, 1986.

Michael Nicholson, Rationality and the analysis ofinternational conflict. New York: Cambridge UniversityPress, 1992.

David M. Kreps, Game Theory and Economic Modelling. NewYork: Oxford University Press, 1990. Chap. 4-6.

Jon Elster, ed., Rational Choice. New York: New YorkUniversity Press, 1986.

Jon Elster, Ulysses and the Sirens: Studies in Rationalityand Irrationality. Rev. ed. New York: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1984.

Frank Hahn and Martin Hollis, eds., Philosophy and EconomicTheory. New York: Oxford University Press, 1979.

Donald P. Green and Ian Shapiro, Pathologies of RationalChoice Theory: A Critique of Applications in PoliticalScience. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994.

Jeffrey Friedman, ed., The Rational Choice Controversy:Economic Models of Politics Reconsidered. New Haven: YaleUniversity Press, 1996. Special issue of Critical Review,9/1-2 (1996).

Kristen Renwick Monroe, The Economic Approach to Politics:A Critical Appraisal of the Theory of Rational Action.New York: HarperCollins, 1991.

Kristen R. Monroe, ed., "Political Economy and PoliticalPsychology." Special Issue, Political Psychology, 16/1(March 1995), pp. 1-198.

Barry O'Neill, "Weak Models, Nil Hypotheses, and DecorativeStatistics: Is there Really No Hope?" Journal of ConflictResolution 39 (December 1995): 731-48.

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3-II. A REALIST THEORY OF FOREIGN POLICY? Colin Elman, "Why Not Neorealist Theories of Foreign

Policy?" Security Studies, 6,1 (Autumn 1996), 7-53. PlusWaltz reply and Elman response, pp. 54-61.

* Gidden Rose, "Neoclassical Realism and Theories of ForeignPolicy." World Politics, 51,1 (October 1998), 144-72.

4-I GOVERNMENTAL-LEVEL EXPLANATIONS (February 7)

4a. Allison’s Governmental Politics Model * Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision, 2nd

ed., chap. 5-6. Alexander George, Presidential Decisionmaking. Boulder,

Col.: Westview, 1980. Chap. 5.Morton H. Halperin and Arnold Kanter, "The Bureaucratic

Perspective: A Preliminary Framework." In Halperin andKanter, eds., Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy.Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1974. Pp. 1-42.

4b. The Organizational Process/Cybernetic Model * Allison, Essence of Decision, ch. 3-4 Steinbruner, The Cybernetic Theory of Decision, chap. 3.

Zeev Maoz, National Choices and International Processes.New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Pp. 178-90.

4c. Organizational Theory: BackgroundHerbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior, 3rd ed. New

York: Free Press, 1976.James G. March and Herbert A. Simon, Organizations. New

York: Wiley, 1958.R. M. Cyert and James G. March. A Behavioral Theory of the

Firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963.James G. March, "Decisions in Organizations and Theories of

Choice." In Andrew H. Van de Ven and William F. Joyce,eds., Perspectives on Organization Design and Behavior.New York: Wiley, 1981.

Jeffrey Pfeffer, "Organizations and Organizational Theory."In Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson, eds., The Handbookof Social Psychology, 3rd. ed., vol. I. New York: RandomHouse, 1985. Ch. 7.

James G. March, Decisions and Organizations. New York:Basil Blackwell, 1988.

Charles Perrow, Complex Organizations: A Critical Essay.3rd ed. New York: Random House, 1986.

* James G. March and Johan P Olsen, "Garbage Can Models ofDecision-Making in Organizations." In James G. March andRoger Weissinger-Baylon, eds., Ambiguity and Command:Organizational Perspectives on Military Decision Making.

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Marshfield, Mass.: Pitman, 1986. Chap. 2.James G. March and Johan P Olsen, Rediscovering

Institutions: the Organizational Basis of Politics. NewYork: Free Press, 1989.

James G. March, A Primer on Decision Making: How DecisionsHappen. New York: Free Press, 1994.

4d. Governmental Politics/Organizational Process: ApplicationsMorton Halperin and Arnold Kanter, Readings in American

Foreign Policy: A Bureaucratic Perspective. Boston:Little Brown, 1973. Pp. 1-42.

A Bureaucratic Perspective Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking, ch. 6-12.

Graham Allison & Peter Szanton, Remaking Foreign Policy:The Organizational Connection. New York: Basic Books,1976.

James C. Thompson, "How Vietnam Happened," in Morton H.Halperin and Arnold Kanter, eds., Bureaucratic Politicsand Foreign Policy, pp. 98-110.

John Steinbruner, The Cybernetic Theory of Decision.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974. Pt. II

Jack S. Levy, "Organizational Routines and the Causes ofWar," International Studies Quarterly 30 (June 1986): 193-222.

Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive: Military Decisionmaking and the Disasters of 1914. Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press, 1984.

Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine. Ithaca,NY: Cornell University Press, 1984. (esp. pp. 41-59).

Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organization,Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1994.

Edward Rhodes, Power and MADness. New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1989.

Edward Rhodes, "Do Bureaucratic Politics Matter? SomeDisconfirming Findings from the Case of the U.S. Navy."World Politics 47 (October 1994): 1-41.

Stuart J. Kaufman, "Organizational Politics and Change inSoviet Military Policy." World Politics 46/3 (April1994): 355-82.

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4e. Evaluation of the Bureaucratic/Organizational Model * Allison, Essence of Decision, ch. 7 and Afterward Stephen D. Krasner, "Are Bureaucracies Important? (or

Allison Wonderland)" Foreign Policy #7 (Summer 1972):159-79.

* Robert J. Art, "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique" Policy Sciences 4 (1973):467-90.

Desmond J. Ball, "The Blind Men and the Elephant: A Critique of Bureaucratic Politics Theory," Australian Outlook 28 (April 1, 1974):71-92.* Jonathan Bender and Thomas H. Hammond, "Rethinking

Allison's Models," American Political Science Review 86(June 1992):301-22.

Lawrence Freedman, "Logic, Politics, and Foreign PolicyPrecesses: A Critique of the Bureaucratic PoliticsModel." International Affairs 52 (July 1976):434-49.

Dan Caldwell, "Bureaucratic Foreign Policy-Making," American Behavioral Scientist 21 (September/October 1977):87-110

Jerel A. Rosati, "Developing a Systematic Decision-MakingFramework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective." WorldPolitics 33 (1981):234-52.

Karen Dawisha, "The Limits of Bureaucratic Politics Model:Observations on the Soviet Case." Studies in ComparativeCommunism (Winter 1980): 300-46.

Miriam Steiner, "The Elusive Essence of Decision,"International Studies Quarterly 21 (June 1977):389-442.

Eric Stern, et al., "Whither the Study of GovernmentalPolitics in Foreign Policymaking: A Symposium." MershonInternational Studies Review, 42,2 (November 1998), 205-55.

Thomas Preston and Paul ‘t Hart, "Understanding andEvaluating Bureaucratic Politics: The Nexus BetweeenPolitical Leaders and Advisory Systems." PoliticalPsychology, 20, 1 (March 1999), 49-98.

4f. Other Models of Political Structures and Foreign PolicyStanley Hoffmann, Gulliver's Troubles. New York: McGraw-

Hill, 1968.Stephen D. Krasner, "Policy-making in a Weak State." In

Krasner, Defending the National Interest. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1978. Chap. 3. Reprinted inJohn G. Ikenberry, ed., American Foreign Policy, pp. 293-318.

Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics:the American and British Experience. Boston: LittleBrown, 1967.

Maurice A. East and Charles F. Hermann, "Do Nation-Types Account for Foreign Policy Behavior?" In James N.Rosenau, Comparing Foreign Policies. Beverly Hills, calif: Sage, 1978. Pp. 269-303.

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Charles F. Hermann, "Decision Structure and ProcessInfluences on Foreign Policy." In Maurice A. East,Stephen A. Salmore, and Charles F. Hermann, eds., WhyNations Act: Theoretical Perspectives for ComparativeForeign Policy Studies. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage,1978. Chap. 4.

Barbara G. Salmore and Stephen A. Salmore, "PoliticalRegimes and Foreign Policy." In East, Salmore, andHermann, eds., Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills, calif:Sage, 1978. Chap. 5.

Margaret G. Hermann and Charles F. Hermann, "Who MakesForeign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry."International Studies Quarterly 33 (December 1989):361-87.

James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict.Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995.

Helen V. Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997.

see also the democratic peace literature

4-II. GOVERNMENTAL INSTITUTIONS AND AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY

4g. The State Department Smith Simpson, Anatomy of the State Department. Boston:

Beacon Press, 1967.John Franklin Campbell, The Foreign Affairs Fudge Factory.

New York: Basic Books, 1971. I.M. Destler, Presidents, Bureaucrats, and Foreign Policy:

The Politics of Organizational Reform. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1974. Chap. 6.

Robert Pringle, "Creeping Irrelevance of Foggy Bottom," Foreign Policy 29 (Winter 1977-78). Leslie H. Gelb, "Why Not the State Department?" in Kegley and Wittkopf, Perspectives on American Foreign Policy. Dean Acheson, "Eclipse of the State Department," Foreign Affairs 49 (July 1971):593-606.

Duncan L. Clarke, "Why State Can't Lead." In Charles W.Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, eds., The DomesticSources of American Foreign Policy. New York: St.Martin's, 1988.

4h Organizational Reform Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking, pt. 2

Alexander L. George, "The Case for Multiple Advocacy inMaking Foreign Policy." American Political ScienceReview, 66 (september 1972): 751-85.

I.M. Destler, Presidents, Bureaucrats, and Foreign Policy:The Politics of Organizational Reform. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1974.

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Robert L. Rothstein, Planning, Prediction, and Policy making in Foreign Affairs.

Graham T. Allison and Peter Szanton, Remaking Foreign Policy Commission on the Organization of the Government for the Conduct of the Government for the Conduct of Foreign Policy (GPO, 1975)

4i. CongressJames M. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of American

Foreign Policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins UniversityPress, 1994.

Thomas E. Mann, A Question of Balance: The President, TheCongress, and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.:Brookings, 1990.

Cecil V. Crabb and Pat M. Holt, Invitation to Struggle:Congress the President and Foreign Policy. Washington,D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 1992. 4th ed. Chap. 2, 8.

James A. Robinson, Congress and Foreign Policy-Making, rev.ed. Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, 1967.

Frances O. Wilcox, Congress, the Executive, and Foreign Policy.

Thomas M. Franck and Edward Weisband, Foreign Policy by Congress. New York: Oxford University Press, 1979.

Robert Pastor, Congress and the Poliitcs of U.S. ForeignEconomic Policy. Berkeley: University of CaliforniaPress, 1980.

John Spanier and Joseph Nogee, ed. Congress, the Presidency and American Foreign Policy. New York: Pergamon, 1981.

Arthur Schlesinger, "The Legislative-Executive Balance inInternational Affairs: The Intentions of the Framers."Washington Quarterly 12 (Winter 1989):99-107.

Eugene R. Wittkopf and James M. McCormick, "Congress, thePresident, and the End of the Cold War: Has AnythingChanged?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42, 4 (August1998), 440-66.

4j. Constitutional Issues Louis Henkin, Foreign Affairs and the Constitution.

Mineola, NY: Foundation Press, 1972. Francis O. Wilcox and Richard A. Frank, eds., The

Constitution and the Conduct of Foreign Policy. New York:Praeger, 1976.

Thomas M. Franck and Edward Weisbrand, Secrecy and Foreign Policy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1974.

4k. The Military

Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theoryand Politics of Civil-Military Relations. New York:Vintage, 1957.

Samuel P. Huntington, The Common Defense. New York:

18

Columbia University Press, 1961. Morton H. Halperin, "The President and the Military,"

Foreign Affairs 50 (Jan. 1972). Morton H. Halperin, The Role of the Military in the

Formation and Execution of National Security Policy. Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises.

Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1977.Adam Yarmolinsky, The Military Establishment. New York:

Harper Colophon, 1971.Stanislav Andreski, Military Organization and Society.

Berkeley: University of California Press, 1954.Deborah D. Avant, Political Institutions and Military

Change: Lessons from Peripheral Wars. Ithaca: CornellUniversity Press, 1994.

4l. Comparative PerspectivesMorris Janowitz, "Military Elites and the Study of War."

Journal of Conflict Resolution 1 (1957): 9-18. Reprintedin Bramson and Goethals, eds., War, pp. 345-57.

Lewis J. Edinger, "Military Leaders and Foreign Policy- Making," American Political Science Review 57 (June1963), 392-405.

Alfred Vagts, A History of Militarism. Rev. ed. New York:Free Press, 1959.

Gordon A. Craig, The Politics of the Prussian Army, 1640- 1945. London: Oxford Univeristy Press, 1955.

Gerhard Ritter, The Sword and the Scepter: The Problem ofMilitarism in Germany. 4 vols. Miami: University of MiamiPress, 1973.

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4m. Presidential and Parliamentary Systems Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics:

the American and British Experience. Boston: LittleBrown, 1967.

Juliet Kaarbo, "Power and Influence in Foreign PolicyDecision Making: The Role of Junior Coalition Partners inGerman and Israeli Foreign Policy." International StudiesQuarterly, 40, 4 (December 1996): 501-30.

Alfred Stepan and Cindy Skach, "Constitutional Frameworksand Democratic Consolidation: Parliamentarianism vs.Presidentialism," World Politics, 46, 1 (October 1993):1-22.

5. SOCIETAL-LEVEL THEORIES (February 14)

5a. Introduction* James D. Fearon, "Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, and

Theories of International Relations." Annual Review ofPolitical Science, 1 (1998), 289-313.

5b. Neo-Marxist Theories* Thomas E. Weisskopf, "Capitalism, Socialism, and the

Sources of Imperialism." In G. John Ikenberry, ed.,American Foreign Policy. Glenview, Ill.: Scott, Foresman,1989. Pp. 162-85.

* Stephen D. Krasner, Defending the National Interest.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978. Chap. 1.

V.I. Lenin, Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism.New York: International Publishers, 1939.

Eckart Kehr, Der Primat der Innenpolitik. Published asEconomic Interest, Militarism, and Foreign Policy. Ed.and trans. by Gordon A. Craig. Berkeley: University ofCalifornia Press, 1977.

Harry Magdoff, The Age of Imperialism. New York: MonthlyReview, 1969.

Gabriel Kolko, The Roots of American Foreign Policy.Boston: Beacon Press, 1969.

V. Kubalkova and A.A. Cruickshank, Marxism-Leninism andtheory of international relations. London: Routledge &Kegan Paul, 1980.

Jeffrey A. Frieden, "Invested Interests." InternationalOrganization 45 (1991), pp. 425-52.

Jeffery A. Frieden, "Sectoral Conflict and U.S. ForeignEconomic Policy, 1914-1940," International Organization42 (Winter 1988): 59-90.

5c. Theories of the Military-Industrial Complex Robert A. Dahl, "The Ruling Elite Model: A Critique."

American Political Science Review 52 (1958):463-69.Gabriel Kolko, The Roots of American Foreign Policy.

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Boston: Beacon Press, 1969. Chap. 1. Steven Rosen, Testing the Theory of the Military- Industrial Complex. Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1973.

Jerome Slater and Terry Nardin, "The Concept of a Military-Industrial Complex." In Steven Rosen, ed.,Testing the Theory of the Military-Industrial Complex.Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1973. Chap. 2.

John C. Donovan, The Cold Warriors. Lexington, Mass.: D.C.Heath, 1974. Chap. 1, 11.

Mark Pilisuk and Tom Hayden, "Is There a Military- Industrial Complex Which Prevents Peace?" In William C. Vocke, American Foreign Policy: An Analytical Approach.New York: Free Press, 1976.

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite. London: Oxford UniversityPress, 1956.

Richard J. Barnet, Roots of War. Baltimore: Penguin, 1973. Seymour Melman, Pentagon Capitalism: The Political Economy

of War. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1970. Sidney Lens, The Military-Industrial Complex. Philadelphia:

Pilgram Press and the National Catholic Reporter, 1970.Vernon Aspaturian, "The Soviet Military-Industrial Complex-

-Does It Exist?" Journal of International Affairs 26/1(1972):1-28.

5d. Interest Groups and Coalitional PoliticsRaymond A. Bauer, Ithiel De Sola Pool, and Lewis Anthony

Dexter, American Business and Public Policy. New York:Atherton, 1963.

Lester W. Milbraith, "Interest Groups and Foreign Policy."In James N. Rosenau, ed., Domestic Sources of ForeignPolicy. New York: Free Press, 1967. Chap. 8.

Barry B. Hughes, The Domestic Context of American Foreign Policy. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1978. Bruce M. Russett and Elizabeth C. Hanson, Interest and Ideology. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1975.* Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and

International Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell UniversityPress, 1991.

Michael Gordon, "Domestic Conflict and the Origins of theFirst World War: the British and German cases." Journalof Modern History 46 (June 1974):191-226.

Paul A. Papayoanou, "Interdependence, Institutions, and theBalance of Power: Britain, Germany, and World War I."International Security 20/4 (Spring 1996): 42-76.

David Skidmore and Valerie M. Hudson, ed., The Limits ofState Autonomy: Societal Groups and Foreign PolicyFormulation. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1993.

Fritz Fischer, War of Illusions: German Policies from 1911to 1914. Trans. Marian Jackson. New York: Norton, 1974.

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5e. Sectional ExplanationsPeter Trubowitz, "Sectionalism and American Foreign Policy:

The Political Geography of Consensus and Conflict."International Studies Quarterly 36/2 (June 1992): 173-90.

Peter Trubowitz, Defining the National Interest: Conflictand Change in American Foreign Policy. Chicago:University of Chicago Press, 1998.

6. SOCIETAL-LEVEL THEORIES (continued) (February 21)

6a. Public OpinionGabriel A. Almond, The American People and Foreign Policy.

New York: Harcourt Brace, 1950. Chap. 3-4. Bernard C. Cohen, The Public's Impact on Foreign Policy.

Boston: Little Brown, 1973. Chap. 1. Lee Benson, "An Approach to the Scientific Study of Past

Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly 31 (Winter 1967-68)

James N. Rosenau, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. NewYork: Random House, 1961.

John E. Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. NewYork: John Wiley, 1973.

Kenneth Waltz, "Electoral Punishment and Foreign Policy Crises." In James N. Rosenau, ed., Domestic Sources ofForeign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1967. Chap. 10.

Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and Eugene R. Wittkopf, AmericanForeign Policy. 5th ed. New York: St. Martin's, 1996.Chap. 8.

Robert A. Divine, Foreign Policy and U.S. Presidential Elections, 2 vols. Franklin Watts/New Viewpoints, 1974.

Ole R. Holsti and James N. Rosenau, American Leadership inWorld Affairs. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1984.

Eugene R. Wittkopf, Faces of Internationalism: PublicOpinion and American Foreign Policy. Durham, NC: DukeUniversity Press, 1990.

William B. Quandt, "The Electoral Cycle and the Conduct ofAmerican Foreign Policy." Political Science Quarterly101/5 (1986):825-37.

"Of Rifts and Drifts: A Symposium on Beliefs, Opinions, andAmerican Foreign Policy." International Studies Quarterly30/4 (December 1986):373-484.

Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Public Opinion, Domestic Structure,and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies." WorldPolitics 43 (July 1991):579-512.

Ole R. Holsti, "Public Opinion and Foreign Policy:Challenges to the Almond-Lipmann Consensus."International Studies Quarterly 36/4 (December 1992):439-66.

* Ole R. Holsti, Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy.

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Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996.Douglas C. Foyle, "Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite

Beliefs as a Mediating Variable." International StudiesQuarterly 41/1 (March 1997): 141-69.

Douglas C. Foyle, Counting the Public In: Presidents,Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1999.

Philip J. Powlick, "The Sources of Public Opinion forAmerican Foreign Policy Officials." International StudiesQuarterly 39/4 (December 1995): 427-51.

Philip J. Powlick and Andrew Z. Katz, "Defining theAmerican Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus," MershonInternational Studies Review, 42,1 (May 1998), 29-61.

Richard C. Eichenberg, "Domestic Prefere ces and ForeignPolicy: Cumulation and Confirmation in the Study ofPublic Opinion." Mershon International Studies Review,42,1 (May 1998), 97-105.

Jeffrey W. Knopf, "How Rational is 'The Rational Public'?Evidence from U.S. Public Opinion on Military Spending."Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42, 5 (October 1998),544-71.

Richard K. Herrmann, Philip Tetlock, and Penny S. Visser,"Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework." American Political ScienceReview, 93, 3 (September 1999), 553-73.

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6b. The MediaBernard Cohen, "Foreign Policy Makers and the Press." In

James N. Rosenau, ed., International Relations andForeign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1961. Chap. 23.

Bernard C. Cohen, The Press and Foreign Policy. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1963.

James B. Reston, The Artillery of the Press: Its Influence on American Foreign Policy. ??

Bernard C. Cohen, "Mass Communication and Foreign Policy,"in James N. Rosenau ed., The Domestic Sources of ForeignPolicy. New York: Free Press, 1967.

Warren P. Strobel, Late-Breaking Foreign Policy: The NewsMedia's Influence on Peace Operations. Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press, 1997.

6c. Political Culture, Identity, Ideology, and IdeasStanley Hoffmann, Gulliver's Troubles, or the Setting of

American Foreign Policy. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1968. Ch. 4-5.

* Samuel P. Huntington, "American Ideals versus AmericanInstituitions." Political Science Quarterly 97/1 (Spring1982). Reprinted in G. John Ikenberry, ed., AmericanForeign Policy: Theoretical Essays. Glenview, Ill.: ScottForesman, 1989. Pp. 223-58.

Alexander L. George, "Domestic Constraints on Regime Changein U.S. Foreign Policy: The Need for Policy Legitimacy."In Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alexander L.George, eds., Change in the International System.Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1980. Chap. 10.

Raymond Cohen, Negotiating Across Cultures. Washington,D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, 1991. 2nd ed, 1997.

Stephen G. Walker, ed., Role Theory and Foreign PolicyAnalysis. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1987.

Michael Hunt, Ideology and U.S. Foreign Policy. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1987.

David Halloran Lumsdaine, Moral Vision in InternationalPolitics: The Foreign Aid Regime, 1949-1989. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1993.

Judith Goldstein, Ideas, Interests, and American TradePolicy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993.

Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane, "Ideas and ForeignPolicy: An Analytic Framework." In Judith Goldstein andRobert Keohane, eds., Ideas & Foreign Policy: Beliefs,Institutions, and Political Change. Ithaca, NY: CornellUniversity Press, 1993. Chap. 1.

John Kurt Jacobsen, "Much Ado About Ideas: The CognitiveFactor in Economic Policy." World Politics, 47/2 (January1995):283-310.

David Yee, "The Causal Effects of Ideas on Policies."International Organization, 50/1 (Winter 1996):69-108.

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Lucian W. Pye, "Political Culture Revisited." PoliticalPsychology, 12/3 (September 1991), pp. 487-508.

Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of NationalSecurity: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York:Columbia University Press, 1996. Particularly

* Peter J. Katzenstein, "Introduction: AlternativePerspectives on National Security." Chap. 1.

* Ronald L. Jepperson, Alexander Wendt, and Peter J.Katzenstein, "Norms, Identity, and Culture in NationalSecurity." Chap. 2.

Yosef Lapid and Friedrich Kratochwil, ed. The Return ofCulture and Identity in IR Theory. Boulder, Col.: LynneRienner, 1996.

Valerie M. Hudson, ed. Culture and Foreign Policy. Boulder,Col.: Lynne Rienner, 1997.

Valerie Hudson and Martin Sampson, "Culture and ForeignPolicy Analysis." Special Issue Political Psychology, 20,4 (December 1999): 667-896.

"The Origins of National Interests." Special Issue ofSecurity Studies, 8, 2/3 (Winter 1998-Spring 1999).Edited by Glenn Chafetz, Michael Spiritas, and BenjaminFrankel." (constructivist interpretations)

6d. Empirical Applications of Cultural FrameworksFritz Gaenslen, "Culture and Decision Making in China,

Japan, Russia, and the United States." World Politics39/1 (October 1986):78-103.

Martin W. Sampson III. "Cultural Influences on ForeignPolicy." In Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr.,and James N. Rosenau, eds. New Directions in the Study ofForeign Policy. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1987. Ch. 19.

James Joll, "1914: The Hidden Assumptions." In H.W. Koch,ed., The Origins of the First World War, 1st ed. London:Macmillan, 1972. Pp. 307-28.

H.W. Koch, "Social Darwinism as a Factor in the "NewImperialism." In H.W. Koch, ed., The Origins of the FirstWorld War, 2nd ed. London, Macmillan, 1984. Pp. 319-42.

John Dower, War without Mercy: Race and Power in thePacific War. New York: Pantheon, 1987.

Michael L. Krenn, Race and U.S. Foreign Policy from theColonial Period to the Present. 5 vols.Levittown, PA:Garland Publishing, 1998.

6e. Strategic CultureJeffrey W. Legro, "Military Culture and Inadvertent

Escalation in World War II." International Security 18(Spring 1994): 108-42.

Jeffrey W. Legro, "Culture and Preferences in theInternational Cooperation Two-Step." American PoliticalScience Review, 90 (March 1996): 118-37.

Jeffrey W. Legro, "Which Norms Matter? Revisiting the

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'Failure' of Internationalism." InternationalOrganization, 51/1 (Winter 1997): 31-64.

Jeffrey W. Legro, Cooperation Under Fire: Anglo-GermanRestraint During World War II

* Alastair Iain Johnston, "Thinking about Strategic Culture."International Security 19 (Spring 1995): 32-64.

Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Cultureand Grand Strategy in Chinese History. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1995.

Elizabeth Kier, "Culture and Military Doctrine: Francebetween the Wars." International Security 19 (Spring1995): 65-93.

Elizabeth Kier, Imagining War: French and British MilitaryDoctrine Between the Wars. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1997.

* Edward Rhodes, "Sea Change: Interest-Based vs. Cultural-Cognitive Accounts of Strategic Choice in the 1890s."Security Studies, 5, 4 (Summer 1996): 73-124.

7. SOCIETAL MODELS (continued) (February 28)

7a. The Foreign Policy of Democracies:Explanations for the Democratic Peace

* Michael Doyle, "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and ForeignAffairs." In Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, andSteven E. Miller, eds., Debating the Democratic Peace.Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996. Pp. 82-115.

* Bruce Russett, "Why Democratic Peace?" In Michael E. Brown,Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, eds., Debatingthe Democratic Peace. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996. Pp. 82-115.

* John Owen, "How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace."International Security, 19, 2 (Fall 1994), 87-125.

* Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization andthe Danger of War." International Security 20 (Summer1995): 5-38. Reprinted in Brown, Lynn-Jones, and Miller,eds., Debating the Democratic Peace.

Bear F. Braumoeller, "Deadly Doves: Liberal Nationalism andthe Democratic Peace in the Soviet Successor States."International Studies Quarterly, 41, 3 (September 1997),375-402.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M.Siverson, and Alastair Smith, "An InstitutionalExplanation of the Democratic Peace."American PoliticalScience Review, 93, 4 (December 1999), 791-807.

* Kenneth A. Schultz, "Do Democratic Institutions Constrainor Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives onDemocracy and War." International Organization, 53, 2(Spring 1999), 233-66.

James Lee Ray, Democracies in International Conflict.

26

Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995.

Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller,eds., Debating the Democratic Peace. Cambridge: MITPress, 1996.

Miriam Fendius Elman, ed., Paths to Peace: Is Democracy theAnswer? Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997.

Randolph M. Siverson, ed., Strategic Politicians,Institutions, and Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: Universityof Michigan Press, 1998.

7b. Political Oppositions* William F. Mabe, Jr., and Jack S. Levy, "Politically-

Motivated Opposition to War: A Comparative Study of theU.S. in the Quasi-War and the War of 1812." 1998 APSApaper, revised.

Joe D. Hagan, "Regimes, Political Oppositions, and theComparative Analysis of Foreign Policy." In Charles F.Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., Kegley, and James N.Rosenau, eds., New Directions in the Study of ForeignPolicy. HarperCollins Academic, 1987. Chap. 17.

Joe D. Hagan, Political Opposition and Foreign Policy inComparative Perspective. Boulder, Col.: Lynne Rienner,1993.

John A. Vasquez, "Domestic contention on critical foreign-policy issues: the case of the United States."International Organization 39 (Autumn 1985):643-66.

Robert A. Dahl, ed., Regimes and Oppositions. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1973.

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7c. The Sources of Scapegoating

Social Identity Theory Lewis Coser, The Functions of Social Conflict. Glencoe,

Ill.: Free Press, 1956.Stephjen Worchel and William G. Austin, eds., Psychology of

Intergroup Relations. Chicago: Nelson-Hall, 1986.Especially:Henri-Tajfel and John C. Turner, "The Social Identity of

Intergroup Behavior." In Pp. 7-24.Marilynn B. Brewer, "The Role of Ethnocentrism in

Intergroup Conflict." Pp. 88-102.Janice Gross Stein, "Image, Identity, and Conflict

Resolution." In Chester A. Crocker and Fen Osler Hampsonwith Pamela Aall, eds., Managing Global Chaos.Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press,1996. Chap. 6.

Foreign Policy ApplicationsArthur Stein, "Conflict and Cohesion." Journal of Conflict

Resolution 20 (March 1976): 143-172.Michael Stohl, "The Nexus of Civil and International

Conflict," in Ted Robert Gurr, Handbook of Conflict. NewYork: The Free Press. Pp. 297-330.

Jack S. Levy, "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique."In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies.Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1989. Chap. 11.

Bruce Russett, Controlling the Sword. Cambridge, Mass.:Harvard University Press, 1990. Chap. 2.

7d. Domestic Politics and Security Policy: Other Applications* Kenneth A. Schultz and Barry A. Weingast, "Limited

Governments, Powerful States." In Randolph M. Siverson,ed., Strategic Politicians, Institutions, and ForeignPolicy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1998.Pp. 15-49.

Jack S. Levy and Michael N. Barnett, "Alliance Formation,Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security."Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 14, 4(December 1992): 19-40.

Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, eds., The DomesticBasis of Grand Strategy. Ithaca, New York: CornellUniversity Press, 1993.

David P. Auerswald, "Inward Bound: tutions and MilitaryConflicts," International Organization, 53,3 (Summer1999), 469-504.

Barbara Rearden Farnham, Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: AStudy of Political Decision-Making. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1997.

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8. PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORIES (March 6)

8a. Theoretical Overview and RationaleHerbert C. Kelman, "Social-Psychological Approaches to the

Study of International Relations: Definitions of Scope"(chap. 1) and "Social-Psychological Approaches to theStudy of International Relations: The Question ofRelevance" (chap. 16). In Herbert C. Kelman, ed.,International Behavior. New York: Holt, Rinehart, andWinston, 1965.

* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception inInternational Politics, Introduction.

* Deborah Welch Larson, Origins of Containment: APsychological Explanation. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1985. Chap. 1.

Alexander George, Presidential Decisionmaking. Boulder,Col.: Westview, 1980. Chap. 2-3.

John Steinbrunner, The Cybernetic Theory of Decision.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974. Chap. 4.

Janice Gross Stein and Raymond Tanter, Rational Decision-Making: Israel's Security Choices, 1967. Columbus, Ohio:Ohio State University Press, 1980. Chap. 1.

Morton Deutsch, "What is Political Psychology,"International Social Science Journal 35 (1983), pp. 221-29.

William J. McGuire, "The Poly-Psy Relationship: ThreePhases of a Long Affair." In Shanto Iyengar and WilliamJ. McGuire, eds., Explorations in Political Psychology.Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1993. Chap. 2.

* Robert P. Abelson and Ariel Levi, "Decision Making andDecision Theory." In Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson,eds., The Handbook of Social Psychology, 3rd. ed., vol.I. New York: Random House, 1985. Ch. 5. Pp. 231-35.Note: We will read this review in parts, following theorganization of the course, but this is a great overviewif you want to read it in its entirety.

Richard R. Lau and David O. Sears, "Social Cognition andPolitical Cognition: The Past, the Present, and theFuture." In Lau and Sears, eds., Political Cognition.Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1986. Ch. 18.

* Philip E. Tetlock, "Social Psychology and World Politics."In D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, and G. Lindzey, eds., Handbookof Social Psychology, 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill,1998. Pp. 868-912.

8b. Early Psychological Approaches to Foreign Policy AnalysisHarold D. Lasswell, Psychopathology and Politics. New York:

Viking, 1930.Herbert C. Kelman, International Behavior. New York: Holt,

Rinehart, and Winston, 1965.Joseph de Rivera, The Psychological Dimension of Foreign

Policy. Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill, 1968.

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8c. Information Processing Approaches: Cognitive Structure and Content

Beliefs and Images * Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War. Baltimore: Johns

Hopkins University Press, 1981. Pp. 192-205. Ole R. Holsti, "The Belief System and National Images: A Case Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 6 (1962):

244-52.* Ole R. Holsti, "Cognitive Dynamics and Images of the

Enemy." In John C. Farrell and Asa P. Smith, eds. Imageand Reality in World Politics. New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1967. Pp. 16-39.

Kenneth Boulding, "National Images and International Systems," in Journal of Conflict Resolution 3 (June 1959):120-131.

Ralph K. White, Nobody Wanted War. New York: Doubleday,1968. Chap. 1, 8-10.

D. Michael Shafer, Deadly Paradigms. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1988.

Richard K. Herrmann, Perceptions and Behavior in SovietForeign Policy. Pittsburgh: University of PittsburghPress, 1985.

Yaacov Y.I. Vertzberger, The World in their Minds.Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1990. Chap.4.

Jerel A. Rosati, The Carter Administration's Quest forGlobal Community: Beliefs and Their Impact on Behavior.Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1987.

Philip E. Tetlock, "Content and Structure in PoliticalBelief Systems." In Donald Sylvan and Steve Chan, eds.,Foreign Policy Decision Making: Perception, Cognition,and Artificial Intelligence. New York: Praeger, 1984),pp. 107-28.

Philip E. Tetlock, "Integrative Complexity of American andSoviet Foreign Policy Rhetoric: A Time-Series Analysis."Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49 (1985):1565-85.

Operational CodeNathan Leites, A Study of Bolshevism. Glencoe, Ill.: Free

Press, 1953.* Alexander L. George, "The `Operational Code': A Neglected

Approach to the Study of Political Leaders andDecisionmaking," International Studies Quarterly 13

(June 1969): 190-222. Alexander L. George, "The Causal Nexus Between Cognitive

Beliefs and Decision-making Behavior: The "Operational Code Belief System," in Lawrence S. Falkowski, ed., Psychological Models in International Politics. Boulder,Col.: Westview, 1979. Ch. 5.

30

Ole R. Holsti, "The `Operational Code' Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: John Foster Dulles' Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs," Canadian Journalof Political Science 3 (1970):123-57.

Stephen G. Walker, "The Interface Between Beliefs andBehavior: Henry Kissinger's Operational Code and theVietnam War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 21 (March1977): 129-68.

Stephen G. Walker, "The Evolution of Operational CodeAnalysis." Political Psychology 11 (June 1990):403-18.

J. Philip Rogers, "Crisis Bargaining Codes and CrisisManagement." In Alexander L. George, ed. Avoiding War.Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1991. Ch. 18.

Stephen J. Walker, " "Psychodynamic Processes and FramingEffects in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: WoodrowWilson's Operational Code." Political Psychology, 16/4(December 1995), pp. 697-717.

Stephen J. Walker, Mark Schafer, and Michael D. Young,"Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis:Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter’s Operational Code."International Studies Quarterly, 42,1 (March 1998), 175-89.

Stephen J. Walker, Mark Schafer, and Michael D. Young,"Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign PolicyConflicts in the Post-Cold War World." Journal ofConflict Resolution, 43, 5 (October 1999), 609-25.

Cognitive MappingRobert Axelrod, ed., Structure of Decision: The Cognitive

Maps of Political Elites. Princeton: Princeton UniversityPress, 1976. Chap. 1,3,4,9.

Jeffrey A. Hart, "Cognitive Maps of Three Latin AmericanPolicy Makers." World Politics, 33/1 (October 1977):115-40.

(March 13) Spring Break!

9. COGNITIVE PROCESSES (March 20)

9a. Political Science Applications* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception, ch. 5, 7-12.

Robert Jervis, "The Drunkard's Search." In Shanto Iyengarand William J. McGuire, eds., Explorations in PoliticalPsychology. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1993.Chap. 12.

* Abelson and Levi, "Decision Making and Decision Theory,"pp. 235-43, 269-80.

Colin Camerer, "Individual Decision Making." In John H.Kagel & Alvin E. Roth, eds., The Handbook of ExperimentalEconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995.

31

Pp. 587-703.Michael D. Young and Mark Schafer, "Is There Method in Our

Madness: Ways of Assessing Cognition in InternationalRelations." Mershon International Studies Review 42/1(May 1998): 63-96.

9b. Heuristics and BiasesDaniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Judgment

under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge,Eng.: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Richard Nisbett and Lee Ross, Human Inference: Strategiesand Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs,NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980.

Robyn M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. SanDiego: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1988. Chap. 5-6.

* Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "Judgment underuncertainty: Heuristics and biases." In Kahneman, Slovic,and Tversky, eds., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristicsand biases. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982.Chap. 1.

* Lee Ross and Craig A. Anderson, "Shortcomings in theattribution process: On the origins and maintenance oferroneous social assessments." In Kahneman, Slovic, andTversky, eds., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics andbiases. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982. Chap. 9.

Robert Jervis, "Representativeness in Foreign PolicyJudgments." Political Psychology 7/3 (1986):483-505.

32

9c. Is Information Processing Data-Driven or Theory-Driven * Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception, ch. 4.

Dennis L. Gennings, Teresa M. Amabile, and Lee Ross,"Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versustheory-based judgments." In Kahneman, Slovic, andTversky, ch. 15.

9d. Motivational Models Irving L. Janis and Leon Mann, Decision Making: A

Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, andCommitment. New York: Free Press, 1977.

Irving L. Janis, Crucial Decisions. New York: Free Press,1989.

* Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War. Baltimore: JohnsHopkins University Press, 1981. Ch. 5, pp. 101-119.

Catherine Hoyenga and K. Hoyenga. Motivational Explanationsof Behavior. Monterrey, Calif.: Brooks-Cole, 1984.

* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception, ch. 10.Richard Nisbett and Lee Ross, Human Inference: Strategies

and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs,NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980. Ch. 10.

Stephen Walker, "The Motivational Foundations of PoliticalBelief Systems." International Studies Quarterly 27/2(1983):179-202.

9e. Crisis Decision-Making and the Impact of Stress Ole R. Holsti and Alexander L. George, "The Effects of

Stress on the Performance of Foreign Policy-Makers." InC. P. Cotter, Political Science Annual. Indianapolis,Ind.: Bobbs-Merrill, 1975. Pp. 255-319.

* Ole R. Holsti, "Crisis Decision-Making." In Philip E.Tetlock, et al., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol.1. New York: Oxford University Press, 1989. Ch. 1.

Jerrold M. Post, "The Impact of Crisis-Induced Stress onPolicy Makers." In Alexander L. George, ed., AvoidingWar. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1991), ch. 20.

Michael Brecher, Decisions in Crisis. Berkeley: Universityof California Press, 1980. Chap. 1

Glen D. Paige, "The Korean Decision," in Rosenau, ed.,International Politics and Foreign Policy (1969), ch. 41.

Charles F. Hermann, ed., International Crises: Insightsfrom Behavioral Research. New York: Free Press, 1972.

Gregory M. Herek, Irving L. Janis, and Paul Huth. "DecisionMaking During International Crises: Is Quality of ProcessRelated to Outcome?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 31(June 1987):203-26.

9f. Threat Perception and Intelligence Failure * Robert Jervis, "Perceiving and Coping with Threat." In

Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein,Psychology and Deterrence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins

33

University Press, 1985. Chap. 2.* Avi Shlaim, "Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War," World Politics 28

(1976), 348-80.Michael I. Handel, "The Yom Kippur War and the

Inevitability of Surprise," International StudiesQuarterly 21 (Sept. 1977):

Janice Gross Stein, "Calculation, Miscalculation, andConventional Deterrence II: The View from Jerusalem." InRobert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein,Psychology and Deterrence. Baltimore: Johns HopkinsUniversity Press, 1985. Chap. 4.

Michael I. Handel, The Diplomacy of Surprise: Hitler,Nixon, Sadat. Cambridge, Mass.: Center for InternationalAffairs/Harvard, 1981.

Richard K. Betts, "Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable," World Politics314.

Richard K. Betts, Surprise Attack. Washington, D.C.:Brookings. 1982.

Klaus Knorr, "Threat Perception," in Knorr, ed. HistoricalDimensions of National Security Problems. Lawrence:University of Kansas Press,

Robert Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor. Stanford, Calif.:Stanford University Press, 1962.

Barton Whaley, Codeword Barbarossa. Cambridge, MA: MITPress, 1973.

Alex Roberto Hybel, The Logic of Surprise in InternationalConflict. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1986.

10. PERSONALITY THEORIES AND POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY (March 27)

10a. Alexander George’s Research ProgramAlexander L. George and Juliette L. George, Woodrow Wilson

and Colonel House: A Personality Study. New York: JohnDay, 1956.

* Fred I. Greenstein, Personality & Politics, pp. 73-86.(Review of George and George)

Edwin A. Weinstein, James William Anderson, and Arthur S.Link, "Woodrow Wilson's Political Personality: AReappraisal." Political Science Quarterly 93 (Winter1978):585-98.

Juliette L. George and Alexander L. George, "Woodrow Wilsonand Colonel House: A Reply to Weinstein, Anderson, andLink." Political Science Quarterly 96 (Winter 1981-82):641-66.

* Alexander L. George and Juliette L. George, PresidentialPersonality & Performance. Boulder, Col. Westview, 1998.

Alexander L. George, "Power as a Compensatory Value forPolitical Leadership," Journal of Social Issues 24 (July

34

1968):29-49. Alexander L. George, "Assessing Presidential Character," World Politics 26 (1974):234-82.

Alexander L. George, "Some Uses of Dynamic Psychology inPolitical Biography." In Fred Greenstein and M. Lerner,eds. A Source Book for the Study of Personality andPolitics. New York: Markham, 1971.

10b. Other Approaches to PsychobiographyPeter Loewenberg, "Psychohistory." In Michael Kammen, ed.

The Past Before Us. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press,1980. Ch. 17.

Peter Lowenberg, Decoding the Past: The PsychohistoricalApproach. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1969.

* Philip E. Tetlock, Faye Crosby, and Travis L. Crosby,"Political Psychobiography." Micropolitics 1/2(1981):191-213.

William McKinley Runyan, "Psychohistory and PoliticalPsychology: A Comparative Analysis." In Shanto Iyengarand William J. McGuire, eds., Explorations in PoliticalPsychology. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1993. Pp.36-63.

Erik H. Erikson, Young Man Luther: A Study inPsychoanalysis and History. New Work: W.W. Norton, 1958.

Doris Kearns, Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream. NewYork: Signet, 1976.

10c. Other Personality ModelsFred I. Greenstein, Personality & Politics. New York:

Norton, 1975.Fred I. Greenstein, "Personality & Politics," in Fred I.

Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds., Handbook ofPolitical Science, vol. 2: Micropolitical Theory.Reading, Mass.: Addision-Wessley, 1975. Ch. 1.

Fred I. Greenstein, "Can Personality and Politics beStudied Systematically?" Political Psychology 13 (March1992): 105-28.

35

Lloyd S. Etheridge, "Personality Effects on American Foreign Policy, 1898-1968: A Test of InterpersonalGeneralization Theory." American Political Science Review72 (June 1978):434-51.

Lloyd S. Etheredge, A World of Men: The Private Sources ofAmerican Foreign Policy. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,1978.

Margaret G. Hermann, "Effects of Personal Characteristicsof Political Leaders on Foreign Policy." In Maurice A.East, Stephen A. Salmore, and Charles F. Hermann, eds.,Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1978.

10d. Psychoanalytic Studies of WarWilliam R. Caspary, "New Psychoanalytic Perspectives on the

Causes of War." Political Psychology 14 (September 1993):417-46.

V.D. Volkan, The Need to Have Enemies and Allies.Northvale, NJ: Jason Aronson, 1988.

Blema S. Steinberg, Shame and Humiliation: PresidentialDecision Making on Vietnam. Montreal: McGill-QueensUniversity Press, 1996.

Steven Kull, Minds at War: Nuclear Reality and the InnerConflicts of Defense Policymakers. New York: Basic Books,1988.

11. THEORIES OF SMALL GROUP BEHAVIOR (April 3)

11a. General Studies Alexander George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign

Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice.Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1982. Chap. 4.

D.G. Minix, Small Groups and Foreign Policy Decision-Making. Washington, D.C.: University Press of America,1982.

Maurice East, Stephen A. Salmore, and Charles F. Hermann,eds., Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills, Calif: Sage, 1978.Chap. 4

Robert S. Baron, Norbert L. Kerr, and Norman Miller, GroupProcesses, Group Decision, Group Action. Pacific Grove,Calif.: Brooks/Cole, 1992.

36

11b. Groupthink Irving L. Janis, Groupthink. 2nd rev. ed. Boston: Houghton

Mifflin, 1982. Ch. 1, 8 (pp. 174-77), 10. J. Longley and D. Pruitt, "Groupthink: A Critique of Janis’

Theory." In L. Wheeler, ed.k Feview of Personality andSocial Psychology, 1 (1980): 74-93. Beverly Hills: Sage.

Paul 't Hart, "Irving Janis' Victims of Groupthink."Political Psychology 12 (1991): 247-78.

* Paul 't Hart, Groupthink in Government: A Study of SmallGroups and Policy Failure. Amsterdam: Swets andZeitlinger, 1990.

Philip E. Tetlock et al., "Assessing Political GroupDynamics: A Test of the Groupthink Model." Journal ofPersonality and Social Psychology 63 (Sept. 1992): 403-25.

Paul 't Hart and Marceline B.R. Kroon, "Groupthink inGovernment: Pathologies of Small-Group Decision Making."Forthcoming in J.L. Garnett, ed., Handbook ofAdministrative Communication. New York: Marcel Dekker,1997.

Paul 't Hart, Eric K. Stern, and Bengt Sundelius, ed.,Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and ForeignPolicy-making. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1997.

11c. Choice ShiftsDean G. Pruitt, "Choice Shifts in Group Discussion: An

Introductory Review." Journal of Personality and SocialPsychology 20 (December 1971): 339-60.

Amiram Vinokur, Stuart Katz, and Joan Crowley, "Risky Shiftis Eminently Rational." Journal of Personality and SocialPsychology, 20/3 (1971): 462-17.

David G. Myers and Helmut Lamm, "The Grouop PolarizationPhenomenon." Psychological Bulletin, 83/4 (1976): 602-27.

Sameul A. Kirkpatrick, Dwight F. Davis, and Roby D.Robertson, "The Process of Political Decision-Making inGroups: Search Behavior and Choice Shifts." AmericanBehavioral Scientist, 20/1 (September/October 1976): 33-64.

37

12-I. THEORIES OF LEARNING (April 10)

12a. Bayesian Updating* James D. Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientists.

Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. Pp. 161-66.Gudmund. R. Iversen, Bayesian Statistical Inference. Sage:

Beverly Hills, Calif., 1984.

12b "Psychological" Models of Learning Ernest R. May, "Lessons" of the Past. London: Oxford

University Press, 1973. * Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in

International Politics, chap. 6.* Yuen Foong Khong, Analogies at War. Princeton: Princeton

University Press, 1992. Chap. 2, 8.Yaacov Y.I. Vertzberger, The World in their Minds:

Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception inForeign Policy Decisionmaking. Stanford: StanfordUniversity Press, 1993. Chap. 6.

Philip E. Tetlock, "Learning in U.S. and Soviet ForeignPolicy: In Search of an Elusive Concept." In GeorgeBreslauer and Philip Tetlock, eds., Learning in U.S. andSoviet Foreign Policy. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1991.Chap. 2.

* Jack S. Levy, "Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping aConceptual Minefield." International Organization 48(Spring 1994): 279-312.

Janice Gross Stein, "Political Learning by Doing: Gorbachevas Uncommitted Thinker and Motivated Learner."International Organization 48 (Spring 1994):155-84.

Haas, Ernst B. (1991) "Collective Learning: SomeTheoretical Speculations." In George Breslauer and PhilipTetlock, eds. (1991) Learning in U.S. and Soviet ForeignPolicy. Boulder, Col.: Westview. Chap. 2.

Chris Argyris and Donald A. Schon, Organizational LearningII: Theory, Method, and Practice. Reading, Mass.:Addison-Wesley, 1996.

Christopher Hemmer, "Historical Analogies and theDefinitions of Interests: The Iranian Hostage Crisis andRonald Reagan’s Policy toward the Hostages in Lebanon."Political Psychology. 20, 2 (June 1999), 247-66.

38

Empirical ApplicationsPaul W. Schroder, "The Transformation of Political

Thinking." In Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, eds., Copingwith Complexity in the International System. Boulder:Westview, 1993. Pp. 47-70.

Evangelista, Matthew. "Sources of Moderation in SovietSecurity Policy." In Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands,Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly, eds.,Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. II. New York:Oxford University Press, 1991. Pp. 254-354.

Mendelson, Sarah E. (1993) "Internal Battles and ExternalWars: Politics, Learning, and the Soviet Withdrawal fromAfghanistan." World Politics 45 (April): 327-60.

Sarah E. Mendelson, Changing Course: Ideas, Politics, & theSoviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1998.

Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, andWorld Wars. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press,1996.

12c. Evolutionary Models of LearningAndrew Farkas, "Evolutionary Models in Foreign Policy

Analysis." International Studies Quarterly, 40, 3(September 1996), 343-61.

Andrew Farkas, State Learning and International Change. AnnArbor: University of Michigan Press, 1998.

12d. Other Models of Foreign Policy ChangeCharles F. Hermann, "Changing Course: When Governments

Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy." International StudiesQuarterly 34 (March 1990): 3-21.

Jerel A. Rosati, Joe D. Hagan, and Martin W. Sampson III,Foreign Policy Restructuring: How Governments Respond toGlobal Change. Columbia: University of South CarolinaPress, 1994.

39

12-II METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN ANALYZING PSYCHOLOGICAL MODELS* Ole Holsti, "Foreign Policy Formation Viewed Cognitively."

In Robert Axelrod, ed., The Structure of Decision: TheCognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1976. Chap. 2.

Robert Jervis, "Political Decision Making: RecentContributions." Political Psychology 2 (Summer 1980):86-101.

Richard Hermann, "The Empirical Challenge of the CognitiveRevolution: A Strategy for Drawing Inferences aboutPerceptions." International Studies Quarterly 32 (June1988):175-203.

* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception inInternational Politics, chap. 2.

Robert E. Nisbett and T. D. Wilson, "Telling more than wecan know: Verbal reports on mental processes."Psychological Review 84 (1977):231-59.

Robert E. Nisbett and T. D. Wilson, "The halo effect:Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments."Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35(1977):250-56.

Baruch Fischhoff, "For those condemned to study the past:Hueristics and biases in hindsight." In Kahneman, Slovic,and Tversky, ch. 23.

Ebbe B. Ebbesen and Vladimir J. Konecni, "On the ExternalValidity of Decision-Making Research: What Do We KnowAbout Decisions in the Real World?" In Thomas SlWallsten, ed., Cognitive Processes in Choice and DecisionBehavior. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1980.

* Chaim D. Kaufman, "Out of the Lab and into the Archives: AMethod for Testing Psychological Explanations ofPolitical Decision Making." International StudiesQuarterly, 38/4 (December 1994), pp. 557-86.

40

13. BEHAVIORIAL THEORIES OF JUDGMENT AND DECISION-MAKING (April 17)(see section 3a on expected utility theory)

13a. Introduction to Behavioral Decision Theory* James G. March, "Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the

Engineering of Choice." Bell Journal of EconomicManagement Science 9 (1978):587-608. Reprinted in JohnElster, ed., Rational Choice. New York: New YorkUniversity Press, 1986. Chap. 6.

* Abelson and Levi, "Decision Making and Decision Theory,"pp. 280-97.

Deborah Frisch and Robert T. Clemanb, "Beyond ExpectedUtility: Rethinking Behavioral Decision Research."Psychological Bulletin, 116/1 (1994), pp. 46-54.

Robin Dawes, "Judgment and Behavioral Decision-Making." InD. Gilbert, Susan Fiske, and Gardner Lindzey, Handbook ofSocial Psychology. 4th ed. New York: McGraw Hill, 1998.

Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Judgmentunder uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge,Eng.: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

David E. Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, eds.Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptiveinteractions. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge UniversityPress, 1989.

Robin M. Hogarth, ed., Insights in Decision Making.Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990.

Richard H. Thaler, The Winner's Curse: Paradoxes andAnomalies of Economic Life. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1992.

Richard H. Thaler, Quasi-Rational Economics. New York:Russell Sage, 1994.

Paul R. Kleindorfer, Howard C. Kunreuther, and Paul J.H.Schoemaker, eds., Decision Sciences. Cambridge, Eng.:Cambridge University Press, 1993.

William M. Goldstein and Robin M. Hogarth, eds., Researchon Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections,and Controversies. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge UniversityPress, 1997.

Leda Cosmides and John Tooby, "Are Humans Good IntuitiveStatisticians After all? Rethinking Some Conclusions fromthe Literature on Judgment Under Uncertainty." Cognition,58 (1996), 1-73.

Lola L Lopes, "Psychology and Economics: Perspectives onRisk, Cooperation, and the Marketplace." Annual Review ofPsychology, 45 (1994), 197-227.

Shira B. Lewin, "Economics and Psychology: Lessons For OurOwn Day From the Early Twentieth Century." Journal ofEconomic Literature, 34 (September 1996), 1293-1323.

41

13b. Prospect TheoryDaniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An

Analysis of Decision Under Risk." Econometrica 47 (March1979): 263-91.

* Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "Rational Choice and theFraming of Decisions." Journal of Business, 59, 4/2(1986):S251-78.

Abelson and Levi, "Decision Making and Decsion Theory," pp.246-54.

Barbara Farnham, Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks. Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press, 1994. Reprint of specialissue of Political Psychology on "Prospect Theory andPolitical Psychology," 13 (June 1992).

Janice Gross Stein, "International Cooperation and LossAvoidance: Framing the Problem. In J.G. Stein and LouisPauly, eds., Choosing to Cooperate: How States AvoidLoss. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992.

* Jack S. Levy, "Loss Aversion, Framing Effects, andInternational Conflict: Perspectives from ProspectTheory." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of WarStudies II. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,2000. Pp. 193-221.

* Jack S. Levy, "Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, andInternational Relations." International Studies Quarterly41/1 (March 1997): 87-112.

Jack S. Levy, "Prospect Theory, Aggregation Effects, andSurvival Levels: Implications for InternationalRelations." 1994 APSA paper.

Paul A. Kowert and Margaret P. Hermann, "Leadership, RiskBehavior, and Prospect Theory." 1995 ISPP paper.

Jeffrey Taliaferro, "Reference Dependence, StrategicChoice, and War: Truman's Decision to Cross the 38thParallel." 1995 ISPP paper.

Jeffrey Berejikian, "Beyond the Gains Debate: Framing StateChoice." American Political Science Review, 91, 4(December, 1997), 789-805.

Rose McDermott, Risk-Taking in International Politics:Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press, 1998.

Yaacov Y.I. Vertzberger, Risk Taking and Decisionmaking:Foreign Military Intervention Decisions. Stanford:Stanford University Press, 1998.

13c. FramingBaruch Fischoff, "Predicting Frames." Journal of

Experimental Psychology, 9,1 (1983), 103-16.Irwin P. Levin, Richard D. Johnson, Craig P. Russo, and

Patricia J. Deldin, "Framing Effects in Judgment Taskswith Varying Amounts of Information." Organizational

42

Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 36 (1985), 362-77.Els C.M. Van Schie and Joop Van der Pligt, "Problem

Representation, Frame Preference, and Risky Choice."ActaPsychologica, 75 (1990), 243-59.

Ola Svenson and Lehman Benson, III, "Framing and TimePressure in Decision Making." In Ola Svenson and A. JohnMaule, ed., Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgmentand Decision Making. New York: Plenum, 1993.

Deborah Frisch, "Reasons for Framing Effects." OrganizationBehavior and Human Decision Processes 54 (1993): 399-429.

Tatsuya Kameda and James H. Davis, "The Function of theReference Point in Individual and Gropu Risk DecisionMaking." Organizational Behavior and Human DecisionProcesses 46 (1990):55-76.

Jack S. Levy, "Hypotheses on the Framing of Decisions."Presented at 1996 International Studies Associationmeetings.

Donald A. Sylvan and James F. Voss, eds., ProblemRepresentation in Foreign Policy Decision Making.Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press, 1998.

13d. Aspiration LevelsJohn W. Payne, Dan J. Laughhunn, and Roy Crum, "Translation

of Gambles and Aspiration Level Effects in Risky ChoiceBehavior." Management Science, 26, 10 (October 1980),1039-60.

Dan J. Laughhunn, John W. Payne, and Roy Crum, "ManagerialRisk Preferences for Below-Target Returns." ManagementScience, 26, 12 (December 1980), 1238-49.

John W. Payne, Dan J. Laughhunn, and Roy Crum, "AspirationLevel Effects in Risky Choice Behavior." ManagementScience 27 (1981),953-59.

James G. March, "Variable Risk Preferences and AdaptiveAspirations." Journal of Economic Behavior andOrganization, 9 (1988), 5-24.

James G. March and Zur Shapira. (1987) "Managerialperspectives on risk and risk-taking." Management Science33/11,1404-18.

13e. Sunk Costs and Models of EntrapmentBarrry M. Staw, "The Escalation of Commitment to a Course

of Action." Academy of Management Review 6/4 (1981): 577-87.

Barry M. Staw and Jerry Ross, "Understanding Behavior inEscalation Situations." Science, 246 (October 13, 1989),pp. 216-20.

* Barry M. Staw and Jerry Ross, "Behavior in EscalationSituations: Antecedents, Prototypes, and Solutions."Research in Organizational Behavior, 9 (1987), pp. 39-78.

43

Max H. Bazerman, Tony Giuliano, and Alan Appelman,"Escalation of Commitment in Individual and GroupDecision Making." Organizational Behavior and HumanPerformance, 33 (1984), pp. 141-52.

Allan I. Teger, Too Much Invested to Quit. New York:Pergamon Press, 1980.

Joel Brockner and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, Entrapment inEscalating Conflicts: A Social Psychological Analysis.New York: Springer-Verlag, 1985.

Glen Whyte, "Escalating Commitment in Individual and GroupDecision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 54(1993): 430-55.

Beth Dietz-Uhler, "The Escalation of Commitment inPolitical Deciision-Making Groups: A Scoial IdentityApproach," unpublished manuscript.

Jerry Ross and Barry M. Staw, "Organizational Escalationand Exit: Lessons from the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant."Academy of Management Journal, 36/4 (1993), pp. 701-32.

Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, "Quagmires in the Periphery: ForeignWars and Escalating Commitment in InternationalConflict." Security Studies, 7, 3 (Spring 1998), 94-144.

The Dollar Auction ModelMartom Sjibol. "The Dollar Auction game: a paradoz in

noncooperative behavior and escalation." Journal ofConflict Resolution 15 (March 1971): 109-11.

Barry O'Neill, "International Escalation and the DollarAuction." Journal of Conflict Resolution 30 (January1986): 33-50.

Zeev Maoz, Paradoxes of War: On the Art of National Self-Entrapment. Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1990. Chap. 4.

Wolfgang Leninger, "Escalation and Cooperation in ConflictSituations: The Dollar Auction Revisited." Journal ofConflict Resolution 33 (June 1989): 231-54.

13f. Other Models of Risk BehaviorPaul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein,

"Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk." InKahneman, Slovic, and Tversky, ch. 33.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, "Variants ofUncertainty." In Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky, ch. 35.

Robin Hogarth, Judgment and Choice, 2nd ed. New York:Wiley, 1987. Ch. 5 (esp. pp. 101-11).

Zur Shapira, Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective. NewYork: Russell Sage, 1995.

J. Frank Yates, ed., Risk-Taking Behavior. New York: Wiley,1992.

Sim B. Sitkin amd Amy L. Pablo, "Reconceptualizing theDeterminants of Risk Behavior." Academy of Management

44

Review 17 (1992): 9-38.Paul J. H. Schoemaker, "Determinants of Risk-Taking:

Behavioral and Economic Views." Journal of Risk andUncertainty 6 (January 1993): 49-73.

* Yaacov Vertzberger, "Rethinking and Reconceptualizing Riskin Foreign Policy Decisionmaking: A SociocognitiveApproach." Political Psychology, 16/2 (June 1995), pp.347-80.

Charles Vlek and Pieter-Jan Stallen, "Rational and PersonalAspects of Risk." Acta Psychologica 45 (1980): 273-300.

Paul A. Kowert and Margaret G. Hermann, "Who Takes Risks:Daring and Caution in Foreign Policy Making." Journal ofConflict Resolution, 41,5 (October 1997), 611-37.

13g. Decision RulesR. Duncan Luce and Howard Raiffa, Games and Decisions. New

York: Wiley, 1957. Chap. 13, pp. 275-86.* Abelson and Levi, "Decision Making and Decision Theory,"

pp. 254-69.Amos Tversky, "Elimination by Aspects: A Theory of Choice."

Psychological Review 79 (July 1972):281-99. Warren Thorngate, "Efficient Decision Heuristics."

Behavioral Sciences 25 (1980):219-225.Robert F. Bordley, "Systems Simulation: Comparing Different

Decision Rules." Behavioral Sciences 25 (1980):230-39.John D. Mullen and Byron M. Roth. Decision-Making. Savage,

MD: Roman & Littlefield, 1991. Appendix B.Hillel J. Einhorn, "Learning from Experience and Suboptimal

Rules in Decision Making." In Kahneman, Slovic, andTversky, ed., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics andBiases, chap. 19.

13h. Time Horizons and Intertemporal ChoiceGeorge F. Loewenstein, "Frames of Mind in Intertemporal

Choice." Management Science, 34/2 (February 1988):200-14.George Loewenstein and Jon Elster, eds., Choice Over Time.

New York: Russell Sage, 1992.

14. STRATEGIC CHOICE (April 24)David A.Lake and Robert Powell, eds., Strategic Choice and

International Relations. Princeton: Princeton UniversityPress, 1999.

15-I. FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING IN DEVELOPING STATES (May 1)Peter Calvert, The Foreign Policy of New States. Brighton,

Sussex: Wheatsheaf Books, 1986.Bahgat Korany, How Foreign Policy Decisions Are Made in the

Third World. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1986.

45

Yaacov Vertzberger, "Bureaucratic-organizational Politicsand Information Processing in a Developing State."International Studies Quarterly 28 (March 1984):69-95.

* Mohammed Ayoob, "The Security Problematic of the ThirdWorld," World Politics 43 (January 1991):257-83.

Edward Azar and C. Moon, eds., National Security in theThird World (Hants, England: Edward Elgar Publishing,1988).

Robert Rothstein, "National Security, Domestic ResourceConstraints, and Elite Choices in the Third World," in S.Deger and R. West, eds, Defense, Security, andDevelopment

Craig Clapham, Third World Politics (Madison: University ofWisconsin Press, 1984).

Michael N. Barnett, Confronting the Costs of War: MilitaryPower, State, and Society in Egypt and Israel (Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1992.

* Jack S. Levy and Michael N. Barnett, "Alliance Formation,Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security,"Jerusalem Journal of International Relations 14 (December1992).

Miriam Fendius Elman, "The Foreign Policies of SmallStates: Challenging NeoRealism in its Own Backyard."British Journal of Political Science, 25/2 (April 1995),pp. 171-217.

15-II REMAINING PRESENTATIONS

46

APPENDICES

1. EARLY APPROACHES TO FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

Kenneth W. Thompson and Roy C. Macridis, "The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy," in Macridis, Foreign Policy inWorld Politics (earlier edition).

Richard C. Snyder, and Glenn D. Paige, "The United States Decision to Resist Aggression in Korea: The Application of anAnalytical Scheme," in Rosenau International Politics andForeign Policy (1961), ch. 21.

Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: Free Press, 1962.

Warner R. Schilling, Paul Y. Hammond, and Glenn H. Snyder, Strategy, Politics, and Defense Budgets. New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1962.

Samuel P. Huntington, The Common Defense. New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1961. ch. 9

Bernard C. Cohen, The Political Process and Foreign Policy.Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957.

David Braybrooke and Charles E. Lindblom, "Types of Decision-Making," in Rosenau, ed., International Politics andForeign Policy. New York: Free Press, 1969. Chap. 20.

Roger Hilsman, The Politics of Policy Making in Defense andForeign Affaris. New York: Harper and Row, 1971.

Henry A. Kissinger, "Domestic Structure and Foreign Policy," inRosenau, ed., International Politics and Foreign Policy(1969), ch. 25; or in Hanrieder, ed., Comparative ForeignPolicy, ch. 1.

47

2. THE "COMPARATIVE FOREIGN POLICY" RESEARCH PROGRAM

This research program has been methodologically self-conscious,and we focus here on questions of scope and method rather thanthe theories themselves.

James N. Rosenau, "Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy."In R. B. Farrell, ed., Approaches to Comparative andInternational Politics. Evanston, Ill.: NorthwesternUniversity Press, 1966; also in Rosenau, Scientific Study ofForeign Policy, ch. 6.

James N. Rosenau, ed., Linkage Politics. New York: Free Press,1969.

Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed. Comparative Foreign Policy: TheoreticalEssays. New York: David McKay, 1971.

Patrick J. McGowan and Howard B. Shapiro. The Comparative Studyof Foreign Policy: A Survey of Scientific Findings. BeverlyHills, CA: Sage, 1973.

.James N. Rosenau, ed. Comparing Foreign Policies. Beverly Hills,Calif.: Sage, 1974.

Charles W. Kegley, Jr., ed. International Events and theComparative Analysis of Foreign Policy. Columbia, SC:University of South Carolina Press, 1975.

Maurice A. East, Stephen A. Salmore, and Charles F. Hermann,eds., Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills, calif: Sage, 1978.

James N. Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. Rev.ed. London: Francis Pinter, 1980.

Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and James N. Rosenau,eds. New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy. Boston:Allen & Unwin, 1987.

Charles F. Hermann, "Foreign Policy Behavior: That Which Is to beExplained." In East, Salmore, and Hermann, eds., Why NationsAct, ch. 2.

James N. Rosenau, "Comparing Foreign Policies: What, Why, How."in Rosenau, ed., Comparing Foreign Policies. Beverly Hills,Calif.: Sage, 1974.

James N. Rosenau, "Comparative Foreign Policy: One-time Fad,Realized Fantasy, and Normal Field. In Kegley, ed.,International Events and the Comparative Analysis of ForeignPolicy, ch. 1; and in Rosenau, Scientific Study of ForeignPolicy, ch. 5.

Patrick J. McGowan, "Meaningful Comparisons in the Study ofForeign Policy: A Methodological Discussion of Objectives,Techniques, and Research Designs." In Kegley, ed.,International Events and the Comparative Analysis of ForeignPolicy, ch. 2.

48

Charles F. Hermann and Gregory Peacock, "The Evolution and Futureof Theoretical Research in the Comparative Study of ForeignPolicy." In Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., andJames N. Rosenau, eds. New Directions in the Study of ForeignPolicy. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1987. Ch. 2.

James N. Rosenau, "Toward the Study of National-International Linkages," in Rosenau, Scientific Study of Foreign Policy,ch. 15

Harvey Starr, "Rosenau, Pre-Theories and the Evolution of theComparative Study of Foreign Policy." InternationalInteractions 14/1 (1988):3-15.

James N. Rosenau, "CFP and IPE: The Anomaly of Mutual Boredom."International Interactions 14/1 (1988):17-26.

Bruce E. Moon, "Political Economy Approaches to the Analysis ofForeign Policy Behavior." In Hermann, Kegley, and Rosenau,eds., New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, ch. 3.

Michael Brecher, Blema Steinberg, and Janice G. Stein. "AFramework for Research on Foreign Policy Behavior." Journalof Conflict Resolution 13 (March 1969):75-101.

Michael Brecher, The Foreign Policy System of Israel. New Haven,Conn.: Yale University Press, 1972.

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3. SOME USEFUL ANTHOLOGIES

Maurice A. East, Stephen A. Salmore, and Charles F. Hermann,eds., Why Nations Act. Beverly Hills, calif: Sage, 1978.

D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, and G. Lindzey, eds., Handbook of SocialPsychology, 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998.

Morton A. Halperin and Arnold Kanter, eds., Bureaucratic Politicsand Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1974.

Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed. Comparative Foreign Policy: TheoreticalEssays. New York: David McKay, 1971.

Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and James N. Rosenau,eds. New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy. Boston:Allen & Unwin, 1987.

Robin M. Hogarth, Insights in Decision Making. Berkeley:University of Chicago Press, 1990.

Robin M. Hogarth and Melvin W. Reder, eds. Rational Choice: TheContrast between Economics and Psychology. Chicago: ChicagoUniversity Press, 1987.

G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: TheoreticalEssays. Glencoe, Ill.: Scott, Foresman, 1989. 2nd ed., NewYork: HarperCollins, 1996.

Herbert C. Kelman, ed. International Behavior: A Social-Psychological Analysis. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston,1965.

D. Gilbert, Susan Fiske, and Gardner Lindsey, eds., The Handbookof Social Psychology, 4th. ed. New York: McGraw Hill, 1998.

Jerel A. Rosati, Joe D. Hagan, and Martin W. Sampson III, ForeignPolicy Restructuring: How Governments Respond to GlobalChange. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1994.

James N. Rosenau, ed. International Politics and Foreign Policy.New York, Free Press, 1961.

James N. Rosenau, ed. International Politics and Foreign Policy,rev. ed. New York, Free Press, 1969.

James N. Rosenau, ed. The Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy. NewYork: Free Press, 1967.

James N. Rosenau, ed. Comparing Foreign Policies. Beverly Hills,Calif.: Sage, 1974.

James N. Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy. Rev.ed. London: Francis Pinter, 1980.

Donald A. Sylvan and Steve Chan, eds. Foreign Policy DecisionMaking, New York: Praeger, 1984.

Stephen G. Walker, Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis.Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1987.