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Abiliti: Future Systems
Thinking about the Future WIP Draft version 3.0
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a simple extrapolation of linear,
single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise strategy development, threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-
making structures and processes.
Abiliti: Future Systems
• Abiliti: Origin Automation is part of a global consortium of Digital Technologies Service Providers and Future Management Strategy Consulting firms for Digital Marketing and Multi-channel Retail / Cloud Services / Mobile Devices / Big Data / Social Media
• Graham Harris Founder and MD @ Abiliti: Future Systems
– Email: (Office) – Telephone: (Mobile)
• Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔 泰巴德
– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti: Future Systems – Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile) – +44 (0) 121 445 5689 (Office) – Email: [email protected] (Private)
• Ifor Ffowcs-Williams CEO, Cluster Navigators Ltd & Author, “Cluster Development” – Address : Nelson 7010, New Zealand (Office)
– Email : [email protected]
Abiliti: Origin Automation Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©
Cluster Theory - Expert Commentary: -
Abiliti: Future Systems
Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.....
.....advances in “Big Data” have lead to a revolution in
futures studies, forecasting and predictive modelling – but
it takes both human ingenuity, and time, for long-range
Models of the Future to develop and mature.....
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• The Cosmology Revolution – new and exciting advances in Astrophysics and Cosmology (String Theory and Wave Mechanics) is leading Physicists towards new questions and answers concerning the make-up of stellar clusters and galaxies, stellar populations in different types of galaxy, and the relationships between high-stellar populations and local clusters. What are the implications for galactic star-formation histories and relative stellar formation times – overall, resolved and unresolved – and their consequent impact on the evolution of life itself ?.
• The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties such as invisibility, limitless quantum energy via room temperature superconductors an onwards and upwards to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. How ultimately will we use this gift? Will we have the wisdom to match our mastery of matter like Solomon? Or will we abuse our technology strength and finally bring down the temple around our ears like Samson?
• The Nano-Revolution – To meet the challenges in an ever more resource-limited world, innovation and technology must play an increasing role. Nanotechnology, the engineering of matter at the atomic scale to create materials with unique properties and capabilities, will play a significant part in ensuring that risks to critical water resources for future cities are addressed. Nanotechnology “has the potential to be a key element in providing effective, environmentally sustainable solutions for supplying potable water for human use and clean water for agricultural and industrial uses.”
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• The Energy Revolution • Oil Shale • Kerogen • Tar Sands • Methane Hydrate • The
Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Every year we consume the quantity of Fossil
Fuel energy which took nature 3 million tears to create. Unsustainable fossil fuel energy
dependency based on Carbon will eventually be replaced by the Hydrogen Economy
and Nuclear Fusion. The conquest of hydrogen technology, the science required to
support a Hydrogen Economy (to free up humanity from energy dependency) and
Nuclear Fusion (to free up explorers from gravity dependency) is the final frontier which,
when crossed, will enable inter-stellar voyages of exploitation across our Galaxy.
• Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained maintenance of the enormous
pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core This is a most challenging
technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to explore and
evaluate its extraordinary opportunities. To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires creating the
same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun. This
means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which
take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions
extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and
fusion of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a
single Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• Renewable Resources • Solar Power • Tidal Power • Hydro-electricity • Wind Power • The Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Any natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate compatible with or faster than its rate of consumption by human activity or other natural uses or attrition. Some renewable resources - solar radiation, tides, hydroelectricity, wind – can also classified as perpetual resources, in that they can never be consumed at a rate which is in excess of their long-term availability due to natural processes of perpetual renewal. The term renewable resource also carries the implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the absorption, processing or re-cycling of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes.
• For the purposes of Nuclear Fission, Thorium may in future replaced enriched Uranium-235. Thorium is much more abundant, far easier to mine, extract and process and far less dangerous than Uranium. Thorium is used extensively in Biomedical procedures, and its radioactive decay products are much more benign.
• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems - such as the biosphere, ecology, the environment the and man-made systems of industry, agronomy, agriculture, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's climate and natural processes and cycles upon which they all depend.
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to extend current human form and function - supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance the human genome capabilities and capacities in order to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.
• The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles. Augmented Reality will create new virtual worlds – such as the interior of Volcanoes or Nuclear Reactors, the bottom of the Ocean or the surface of the Moon, Venus or Mars - so realistic they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and at the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge human capacities with machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface.
• The Biotech Revolution – Genome mapping and Genetic Engineering is now bringing doctors and scientists towards first discovery, and then understanding, control, and finally mastery of human health and wellbeing. Digital Healthcare and Genetic Medicine will allow doctors and scientists to positively manage successful patient outcomes – even over diseases previously considered fatal. Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health, wellbeing and longevity. DNA screening could diagnose and gene therapy prevent or cure many diseases. Thanks to laboratory-grown tissues and organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available to order. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could ultimately be slowed or even halted.
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and even geology are dominated by the indirect impact of human activity and the direct impact of human manipulation: –
1. Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and
ecological degradation.
2. Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do all of the natural geological processes
3. Ecological Degradation – biological extinction rate - is currently greater than that of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) extinction event
4. Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resources
• Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic ecological damage and resulting in climatic change – for example, the Easter Island culture, the de-population of upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat from northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates and the current sub-Saharan de-forestation and subsequent desertification by semi-nomadic pastoralists
The Management of Uncertainty A Brief History of Chaos…..
Mechanical Processes –
Thermodynamics (Complexity and Chaos Theory) – governs the behaviour of Systems Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) – governs the behaviour of all everyday objects Quantum Mechanics – governs the behaviour of unimaginably small sub-atomic particles Relativity Theory – governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures
Wave Mechanics (String Theory) – integrates the behaviour of every size and type of object
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any
organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major
intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level,
in every type of business. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the
future actually unfolds. As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a
straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider
ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and
incorporated into decision-making structures and processes.
• Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow
perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A
concentration of focus may risk overlooking Weak Signals indicating potential issues
and events, agents and catalysts of change. Such Weak Signals – along with their
resultant Wild Card and Black Swan Events - represent early warning of radically
disruptive future global transformations – which are even now taking shape at the very
periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or just beyond.
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• There are many kinds of Stochastic or Random processes that impact on every area
of Nature and Human Activity. Randomness can be found in Science and Technology
and in Humanities and the Arts. Random events are taking place almost everywhere
we look – for example from Complex Systems and Chaos Theory to Cosmology and
the distribution and flow of energy and matter in the Universe, from Brownian motion
and quantum theory to fractal branching and linear transformations. There are further
examples – atmospheric turbulence in Weather Systems and Climatology, and system
dependence influencing complex orbital and solar cycles. Other examples include
sequences of Random Events, Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events
occurring in every aspect of Nature and Human Activity – from the Environment and
Ecology - to Politics, Economics and Human Behaviour and in the outcomes of current
and historic wars, campaigns, battles and skirmishes - and much, much more.
• These Stochastic or Random processes are agents of change that may precipitate
global impact-level events which either threaten the very survival of the organisation -
or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to
include Weak Signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may
therefore be critical in contributing towards the continued growth, success, wellbeing
and survival of both individuals and organisations at the micro-level – as well as cities,
states and federations at the macro-level - as witnessed in the rise and fall of empires.
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
Random Processes
• Random Processes may influence many natural and human phenomena, such as: -
– the history of an object
– the outcome of an event
– the execution of a process
• Randomness may be somewhat difficult to demonstrate, as true Randomness in chaotic
system behaviour is not always readily or easily distinguishable from any of the “noise”
that we may find in Complex Systems – such as foreground and background wave
harmonics, resonance and interference. Complex Systems may be influenced by both
internal and external factors which remain hidden – either unrecognised or unknown.
These hidden and unknown factors may exist far beyond our ability to detect them – but
nevertheless, still exert influence. The existence of weak internal or external forces acting
on systems may not be visible to the observer – these subliminal temporal forces can
influence Complex System behaviour in such a way that the presence of imperceptibly tiny
inputs, acting on a system, amplified in effect over many system cycles - are ultimately
able to create massive observable changes to outcomes in complex system behaviour.
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• Uncertainty is the outcome of the disruptive effect that chaos and randomness
introduces into our daily lives. Research into stochastic (random) processes
looks towards how we might anticipate, prepare for and manage the chaos and
uncertainty which acts on complex systems – including natural systems such as
Cosmology and Climate, as well as human systems such as Politics and the
Economy - in order that we may anticipate future change and prepare for it…..
• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
– Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
• Relativity Theory
– Apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects
• Quantum Mechanics
– Every Quantum event is truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random
• Wave Mechanics (String Theory)
– Any apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers
Classical Mechanics
(Newtonian Physics)
Everyday objects Any apparent randomness is as
a result of Unknown Forces
Sir Isaac Newton
Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier
Atomic Theory Atoms Each and every Quantum event
is truly and intrinsically fully
symmetrical and random
Max Plank, Niels Bohr
Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Erwin Schrodinger ,
Werner Heisenberg,
Paul Dirac,
Richard Feynman
Astronomy Common, Observable
Celestial Objects
Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry may be as a result
of Quantum effects or other
Unknown Forces acting early in
the history of Space-Time
Galileo, Copernicus,
Kepler, Lovell, Hubble
Cosmology Super-massive
Celestial Objects
Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,
Penrose, Bell-Burnell
Relativity Theory The Universe
Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry is as a result of
Unknown Forces / Dimensions
Albert Einstein,
Hermann Minkowski,
Stephen Hawking
Wave Mechanics
(String Theory or
Quantum Dynamics)
The Universe,
Membranes and
Hyperspace
Michael Green,
Michio Kaku
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
– Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) governs the behaviour of everyday objects
– any apparent randomness is as a result of unimaginably small, unobservable and
unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System.
• Quantum Mechanics
– governs the behaviour of unimaginably small objects (fundamental sub-atomic particles)
– all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox).
• Relativity Theory
– Relativity Theory governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures
(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time
• Wave Mechanics (String Theory or Quantum Dynamics)
– Wave Mechanics integrates the behaviour of every size and type of physical object
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting on the Universe, Membranes or in Hyperspace
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration of
Geospatial “Big Data” - simultaneously within a Time (history) and Space (geographic) context.
The problems encountered in exploring and analysing vast volumes of spatial–temporal
information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming increasingly difficult to manage
effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and scale in a Time (history) and
Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–space and attribute–space
analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with the additional dimension
of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method of Visual Exploration for
Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.
• This time-visualisation approach integrates Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal
(timeline) data along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,
exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-visual
“Big Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear timeline and
cyclical wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time (history) and
Space (geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of granularity. Linear
and cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination with other graphic
representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-types. The Temporal Wave
can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system, as a time–space continuum
representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.
Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty
• Randomness. Neither data-driven nor model-driven macro-economic or micro-economic
models currently available to us today - seem able to deal with the concept or impact of
Random Events (uncertainty). We therefore need to consider and factor in further novel
and disruptive (systemic) approaches which offer us the possibility to manage uncertainty.
We can do this by searching for, detecting and identifying Weak Signals – which are tiny,
unexpected variations or disturbances in system outputs – surprises – predicating the
possible existence of hidden data relationships which are masked or concealed within the
general background system “noise”. Weak Signals are caused by the presence of small
unrecognised or unknown forces acting on the system. Weak Signals in turn may indicate
the possible future appearance of emerging chaotic, and radically disruptive Wild Card or
Black Swan events beginning to form on the detectable Horizon – or even just beyond.
• Random Events must then be factored into Complex Systems Modelling. Complex
Systems interact with unseen forces – which in turn act to inject disorder, randomness,
uncertainty, chaos and disruption. The Global Economy, and other Complex Adaptive
Systems, may in future be considered and modelled successfully as a very large set of
multiple interacting Ordered (Constrained) Complex Systems - each individual System
loosely coupled with all of the others, and every System with its own clear set of rules and
an ordered (restricted) number of elements and classes, relationships and types.
Randomness The Nature of Uncertainty
The Nature of Uncertainty – Randomness
Classical (Newtonian) Physics – apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces Relativity Theory – any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects
Quantum Mechanics – all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random Wave (String) Theory –apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces
Space-Time and Energy-Matter
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• In1907 the German mathematical physicist Hermann Minkowski developed the concept
of a single space-time continuum - which provides a conceptual framework for all the
mathematical proofs used in relativity - including Albert Einstein's general and special
theory of relativity. Minkowski space-time is an integrated and unified four-dimensional
continuum - composed of three Positional Dimensions (Loci or Vectors x, y and z
coordinates) defining Space (vector / position) – which is entirely integrated and wholly
unified with a fourth Temporal Dimension (t coordinate) – defining Time (history).
• Minkowski quickly realised that the preliminary work on relativity theory could best be
explained and understood in a multi-dimensional universe which extended beyond the
three spatial dimensions (x, y and z axes) - to include a temporal dimension (t axis) - as
the foundation of a new, non-Euclidean four-dimensional geometry. Minkowski coupled
the two separate dimensions of Space and Time together to create a unified four-
dimensional Space-Time continuum - which was then employed in his own treatment of
a four-dimensional study of electrodynamics. This study involved a combination of two
previously separate systems – Space (with x, y and z axes) and Time (t axis) – to form
Space-Time (with x, y, z and t axes). He noticed that the invariant interval between
two events shared some of the properties of distance in Euclidean three-dimensional
geometry and formulated this invariant interval as the square root of a sum and
difference of squares of the intervals of both Space and Time.
Minkowski
Space-Time continuum
• In an attempt to understand the previous works of Lorentz and Einstein, during 1907 Hermann Minkowski synthesised a revolutionary four-dimensional view of a single, integrated space-time continuum.
• Until the development of Minkowski space-time continuum - the three-dimensional coordinate system describing Space (position) in Classical (Newtonian) physics and the other universal dimension, the flow of Time, were considered to exist independently.
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• Space (position) and Time (history) flow inextricably together in a single direction –
towards the future – just as a river can only flow downhill, towards the sea. Space and
Time can only exist together within a single, unified Space-Time continuum. Without
Space – there can be no Time , and without Time – there can be no Space
• Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as Minkowski space or the Minkowski
universe. . In order to exploit the principles of the Minkowski space-time continuum, this
type of coupling must fully demonstrate that the history of a particle or the
transformation of a process over time is dependent on both its spatial and historical
components. Minkowski space-time is used predominately in the study of relativity,
although it can also be applied to other subjects and fields of human endeavour
involving the coupling of time and spatial vectors –for example, in “Big Data” which is
used for Predictive Analytics, Geospatial Propensity Modelling and Future Analysis. .
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• Using this concept, events which are localized in both space and time may be
considered as the analogues of points in three-dimensional geometry. Thus the Time
dimension in the history of a single particle or the timeline of an event in Minkowski
space-time - resembles the arc of a curve in a three-dimensional Space, and is thus
fully dependent on both its spatial and historical components.
• Like Space, Time is a Dimension – but Time only flows in a single direction, as does a
River. Time and Space can only exist together within a single, unified Space-Time
continuum. Without Time – there can be no Space, and without Space – there can be
no Time. Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as Minkowski space or the
Minkowski universe. Minkowski space-time is used predominately in the study of
relativity, although it can also be applied to other subjects involving the coupling of
spatial and temporal vectors – such as Futures Studies. In order to exploit the
Minkowski space-time continuum, this type of coupling must demonstrate that the
history of a particle or the transformation of a process over time is fully dependent
on both Space and Time.
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• The three-dimensional coordinate
system describing Space (position) in
Classical (Newtonian) physics along with
the other universal dimension, the flow of
Time (history), were considered to exist
and act entirely independently of each
other - until the synthesis of Space-Time
• During 1907, in an attempt to gain an
understanding of the previous work of
Lorentz and Einstein, the German
Mathematician Hermann Minkowski
developed a four-dimensional view of the
universe as a single, integrated and
unified Space-Time continuum.
• In order to demonstrate the principle
properties of the Minkowski Space-
Time continuum – any type of Spatial
and Temporal coupling must be able to
show over time that the History of a
particle or the Transformation of a
process is fully and entirely dependent
on both its Spatial (positional) and
Temporal (historic) components.
The Flow of Information through Time
• Time Present is always in some way inextricably woven into both Time Past and Time
Future – with the potential, therefore, to give us notice of future random events – before
they actually occur. Chaos Theory suggests that even the most subliminal inputs, so
minute as to be undetectable, may ultimately be amplified over many system cycles – to
grow in influence and effect to trigger dramatic changes in future outcomes. So any
given item of Information or Data (Global Content) may contain faint traces which hold
hints or clues about the outcomes of linked Clusters of Past, Present and Future
Events.
• Every item of Global Content that we find in the Present is somehow connected with
both the Past and the Future. Space-Time is a Dimension – which flows in a single
direction, as does a River. Space-Time, like water diverted along an alternative river
channel, does not flow uniformly – outside of the main channel there could well be
“submerged objects” (random events) that disturb the passage of time, and may
possess the potential capability of creating unforeseen eddies, whirlpools and currents
in the flow of Time (disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn posses the capacity to
generate ripples, and waves (chaos and disruption) – thus changing the course of the
Time-Space continuum. “Weak Signals” are “Ghosts in the Machine” of these
subliminal temporal interactions – with the capability to contain information about future
“Wild card” or “Black Swan” random events.
Space-time Disturbances
• Time, like Water, does not flow uniformly – outside the depths of the main
channel within which Time travels, there may also be submerged objects
(random events) that posses the ability to cause disturbances, eddies and
currents in the flow (disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn have the capacity
to generate ripples, whirlpools and waves (chaos and disruption) that flow
through the Space-Time continuum bringing with it the possibility for change -
thus precipitating novel and unexpected outcomes.
• These unpredictable temporal interactions (random events) may interact with
current and emerging waves, patterns and trends to cause Chaos, Disorder,
Uncertainty and Disruption – which in turn have the capacity tp generate Wild
Card or Black Swan Events – manifestations of randomness that act in such a
way as to prevent Time flowing smoothly and uniformly towards an unerringly
predictable outcome or conclusion. Random Events change the flow of Time –
thus the deflected course taken by Time interacting with Random Events means
that the Future becomes unpredictable. Instead of smooth, linear outcomes – we
experience surprises.
Minkowski
Space-Time continuum
• Space (position) and
Time (history) flow
inextricably together in
a single direction –
towards the future.
• In order to exploit the
principle properties of
the Minkowski space-
time continuum, any
type of Spatial and
Temporal coupling
must be able to fully
demonstrate that the
History of a particle
or the Transformation
of a process over time
is entirely dependent
on both its spatial and
historical components.
Space-time Continuum – A Temporal Framework
The Theory of Hyperspace - Prof. Michiu Kaku
• According to this theory, before the Big Bang, our cosmos was actually a perfect ten-dimensional universe, a world where inter-dimensional travel was possible. However, this ten-dimensional universe "cracked" in two, creating two separate universes: a four- and a six- dimensional universe. The universe in which we live was born in that cosmic cataclysm. Our four-dimensional universe expanded explosively, while our twin six-dimensional universe contracted violently, until it shrank to almost infinitesimal size.
• This would explain the origin of the Big Bang. If correct, this theory demonstrates that the rapid expansion of the universe was just a rather minor aftershock of a much greater cataclysmic event, the cracking of space and time itself. The energy that drives the observed expansion of the universe is then found in the collapse of ten-dimensional space and time. According to this theory, the distant stars and galaxies are receding from us at astronomical speeds because of the original collapse of ten-dimensional space and time. This theory predicts that our universe still has a dwarf twin, a companion universe containing the residual dimensions, curled up into a small six-dimensional ball that is too small to be detected or observed.....
Space-time Continuum – A Temporal Framework
String Theory of Hyperspace - Prof. Michiu Kaku
• Many scientists now believe, although we cannot yet prove it, that the multiversity (multiple
universes) hyperspace which contains our own universe – can exist in up to eleven dimensions.
Think of this hyperspace as a multi-dimensional arena in which there are floating a vast number
of bubbles. The surface membrane of every one of these bubbles represents an entire universe,
so our own universe exists on a single bubble membrane. It’s a three dimensional bubble. This
three dimensional bubble is rapidly expanding – according to the Big Bang theory - sometimes
these bubbles can bump into each other, at other times they could split apart – this is the event
that theoretical cosmologists think caused the Big Bang. So we even have a theory of the origin
of the Big Bang itself. In string theory we can have bubbles consisting of different dimensions.
• The highest stable number of dimension in a universe is 11. Universes containing dimensions
beyond 11 become unstable and collapse. When we attempt to describe the mathematics
behind the theory of a 13-, 15-dimensional universe, those universes are intrinsically unstable
and all of them rapidly collapse down to an 11-dimensional universe. Even in the case of an 11-
dimensionsional universe - bubbles can split apart to become 3-dimensional, 4-dimensional , 5-
dimensional and 6-dimensional universes. These bubbles are membranes, so for short we call
them “branes”. Branes may exist with different numbers of dimensions. If we use P to represent
the total number of dimensions belonging to each bubble or membrane – then they become p-
branes. So a p-brane is simply a universe with variable numbers of dimensions – large numbers
of which are floating in a much larger arena - the hyperspace which we discussed earlier.
Geological Timelines
The Nature of Uncertainty – Randomness
• Uncertainty is the outcome of the disruptive effect that chaos and randomness
introduces into our daily lives. Research into stochastic (random) processes
looks towards how we might anticipate, prepare for and manage the chaos and
uncertainty which acts on complex systems – including natural systems such as
Cosmology and Climate, as well as human systems such as Politics and the
Economy - in order that we may anticipate future change and prepare for it…..
• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
– Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
• Relativity Theory
– Apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects
• Quantum Mechanics
– Every Quantum event is truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random
• Wave Mechanics (String Theory)
– Any apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces
Randomness
Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers
Classical Mechanics
(Newtonian Physics)
Everyday objects Any apparent randomness is as
a result of Unknown Forces
Sir Isaac Newton
Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier, Priestley
Atomic Theory Atoms Each and every Quantum event
is truly and intrinsically fully
symmetrical and random
Max Plank, Niels Bohr
Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Erwin Schrodinger ,
Werner Heisenberg,
Paul Dirac,
Richard Feynman
Astronomy Common, Observable
Celestial Objects
Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry may be as a result
of Quantum effects or other
Unknown Forces acting early in
the history of Space-Time
Galileo, Copernicus,
Kepler, Lovell, Hubble
Cosmology Super-massive
Celestial Objects
Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,
Penrose, Bell-Burnell
Relativity Theory The Universe
Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry is as a result of
Unknown Forces / Dimensions
Albert Einstein,
Hermann Minkowski,
Stephen Hawking
Wave Mechanics
(String Theory or
Quantum Dynamics)
The Universe,
Membranes and
Hyperspace
Michael Green,
Michio Kaku
Space-Time v. Energy-Matter
• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
– Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) governs the behaviour of everyday objects
– any apparent randomness is as a result of unimaginably small, unobservable and
unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System.
• Quantum Mechanics
– governs the behaviour of unimaginably small objects (fundamental sub-atomic particles)
– all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox).
• Relativity Theory
– Relativity Theory governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures
(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time
• Wave Mechanics (String Theory or Quantum Dynamics)
– Wave Mechanics integrates the behaviour of every size and type of physical object
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting on the Universe, Membranes or in Hyperspace
Randomness Domain Scope Scale Randomness Pioneers
Classical Mechanics
(Newtonian Physics)
Common, everyday and
local Celestial Objects
1 Solar Mass Apparent randomness is a
result of Unknown Forces
Sir Isaac Newton
Biology Organisms Linnaeus, Darwin, Huxley
Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier, Priestley
Atomic Theory Atoms Max Plank, Niels Bohr
Thermodynamics Energy 10.(34) atoms Newcomen, Trevithick,
Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles 10.(34) atoms Quantum events are truly
and intrinsically both fully
symmetrical and random
Schrodinger, Heisenberg,
Dirac, Feynman
Geology Earth 1 Earth Mass Apparent randomness is a
result of Unknown Forces
Hutton, Lyell, Wagner
Astronomy Observable local and
distant Celestial Objects
10.(24) solar
masses
Any apparent randomness
or asymmetry may be as a
result of Quantum effects or
other Unknown Forces
acting early in the history of
Space-time / Energy-matter
Galileo, Copernicus,
Kepler, Lovell, Hubble
Cosmology Super-massive Celestial
Objects and Structures
10.(34) atoms Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,
Penrose, Bell-Burnell
Relativity Theory The Universe 10.(34) atoms Einstein, Minkowski,
Stephen Hawking
Wave Mechanics
(String Theory or
Quantum Dynamics)
The Universe,
Membranes and
Hyperspace
10.(34) atoms Randomness or asymmetry
is a result of Unknown
Forces and Dimensions
Michael Green,
Michio Kaku
Wave Mechanics (String Theory)
• By late 1970s, quantum field theory and Einstein's general theory of relativity (classical
theory of gravity) proved to be suitable theoretical frameworks to address many or most of
observed features of our universe, from elementary particles like electrons and protons to
evolution of the universe in the cosmological scale.
• However, there are also many fundamental problems which remain to be solved. Elevating
gravity to quantum level had been one grand unsolved problem since the days of Einstein,
while other smaller but equally mysterious problems, such as how to solve quantum
chromo-dynamics (QCD) why the cosmological constant of our universe is so small
(thought to vanish at some point but later proven otherwise by observation), and whether
properties of black holes are consistent with quantum principle, were abundant as well.
• Now, 30 years since then, many theoretical physicists seem to believe that string theory
did or will offer answers to many such questions. The original idea of string theory that
everything in nature originates from loops or segments of strings moving in the relativistic
way, seemed ludicrous at first. Yet, its unique ability to define a quantum mechanically
consistent gravity is not something that theorists could easily resist. Existence of gravity in
string theory was recognized as early as 1975, which was then elevated to a realistic
computational framework in 1980's, but putting it to actual use was another problem.
Wave Mechanics (String Theory)
• Better understanding and use of string theory became possible through the realization
in the 1990's that there are hidden symmetries, known as "duality." Recently, it has
been shown that a strongly coupled regime of one superstring theory can sometimes be
understood as a weakly coupled regime of another, "dual" superstring theory. Such
relations demonstrated that different models of superstrings are actually different
perturbative realizations of one and the same theory. One ultimate theory, which was
conjectured to contain all superstring theory as special cases, has been named M
theory. Another lesson from these developments in the 1990's is that string theory is not
only made up of open and closed strings, but all kinds of other extended objects which
are postulated to exist in Hyperspace – including D-branes and M-branes.
• Probably the most celebrated example of dualities, found in 1997 and has been
exploited and generalized widely since then, is AdS/CFT. In its most general
reincarnation, this model asserts equivalence between certain pairs of open string
theory and closed string theory. In practice, one actually considers the limiting cases
where the open string side reduces to a strongly coupled gauge field theory and/or the
closed string side reduces to classical gravitational theory.
Wave Mechanics (String Theory)
• The equivalence offers completely new methods for solving many strongly interacting
theories, most notably quantum chromo-dynamics (QCD). The very acute issue of black
hole in quantum gravity was also addressed through these developments, resulting in a
consensus among many theoretical physicists that quantum principle is probably not
destroyed by existence of quantum black holes in string theory. A complete resolution of
the problem, applicable to all type of black holes is, however, still unavailable.
• Pioneers of string theory such as Michael Green and Michio Kaku hoped that they might
be able to "derive" a unique theory of universe where every fundamental law of nature can
be predicted unambiguously and accurately. With better understanding over the last twenty
years, we now begin to realize that this hope was probably mislaid. String theory is far
more than a single unified theory of the universe. It proved to be a new physical modelling
paradigm and framework – even more so than the ubiquitous quantum field theory.
• Whether and how we can describe a new model of the universe within this framework is a
very highly constrained and difficult problem, which still carries significant uncertainty when
compared to conventional model building methods in particle physics and in cosmology.
Space-Time v. Energy-Matter Domain Object Process Outcome Timeline Size Range
Classical Mechanics
(Newtonian Physics)
Common, Everyday
and Celestial Objects
Motion Change of
Position
4.6 x 10.(12) yr 1 Solar Mass
Biology Organisms Evolution Life and Death 3.7 x 10.(12) yr
Chemistry Molecules Transformation Change in State 1.37 x 10.(13) yr
Atomic Theory Atoms Interaction Change in State 1.37 x (10) 13 yr
Thermodynamics Energy (Entropy and
Enthalpy)
Transformation
and Flow
Change in State 10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms
Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Interaction Objects created
and destroyed
10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms
Geology Earth Transformation Change in State
and Position
4.6 x 10.(12) yr 1 Earth Mass
Astronomy Observable Celestial
Objects
Motion Change in State
and Position
1.37 x 10.(13) yr 10.(24) solar
masses
Cosmology Super-massive
Celestial Objects
Transformation Change in State
and Position
10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms
Relativity Theory The Universe Interaction Change in State
and Position
10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms
Wave Mechanics
(String Theory or
Quantum Dynamics)
The Universe,
Membranes and
Hyperspace
Motion, Flow,
Transformation
and Interaction
Objects created
and destroyed,
with change in
State and Position
10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms
Space-Time Analytics – The Temporal Wave
• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration of
Time-series Geospatial Data Sets – data with dimensions which exist simultaneously with a Time
(history) and Space (geographic) context. The problems encountered in exploring and analysing
vast volumes of spatial–temporal information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming
increasingly difficult to manage effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and
scale in a Time (history) and Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–
space and attribute–space analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with
the additional dimension of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method of
Visual Exploration for Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.
• This time-visualisation approach integrates Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal
(timeline) dataset - along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,
exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-visual “Big
Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear timeline and cyclical
wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time (history) and Space
(geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of granularity. Linear and
cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination with other graphic
representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-types. The Temporal Wave
can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system, as a time–space continuum
representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.
The Flow of Information through Time
• Time Present is always in some way inextricably woven into both Time Past and Time
Future – with the potential, therefore, to give us notice of future random events – before
they actually occur. Chaos Theory suggests that even the most subliminal inputs, so
minute as to be undetectable, may ultimately be amplified over many system cycles – to
grow in influence and effect to trigger dramatic changes in future outcomes. So any
given item of Information or Data (Global Content) may contain faint traces which hold
hints or clues about the outcomes of linked Clusters of Past, Present and Future Events.
• Every item of Global Content that we find in the Present is somehow connected with both
the Past and the Future. Space-Time is a Dimension – which flows in a single direction,
as does a River. Space-Time, like water diverted along an alternative river channel,
does not flow uniformly – outside of the main channel there could well be “submerged
objects” (random events) that disturb the passage of time, and may possess the potential
capability of creating unforeseen eddies, whirlpools and currents in the flow of Time
(disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn posses the capacity to generate ripples, and
waves (chaos and disruption) – thus changing the course of the Space-Time continuum.
“Weak Signals” are “Ghosts in the Machine” of these subliminal temporal interactions –
with the capability to contain information about future “Wild card” or “Black Swan” random
events.
Temporal Disturbances in the Space–Time Continuum
• Weak Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events – are a sequence of waves linked and integrated in ascending order of magnitude, which have a common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance or arising from a linked series of chaotic and disruptive Random Events - an Event Storm. These Random Events propagate through the space-time continuum as a related and integrated series of waves with an ascending order of magnitude and impact – the first wave to arrive is the fastest travelling,- Weak Signals - something like a faint echo of a Random Event which may in turn be followed in turn by a ripple (Strong Signals) then possibly by a wave (Wild Card) - which may indicate the unfolding a further increase in magnitude and intensity which finally arrives catastrophically - something like a tsunami (Black Swan Event).
Sequence of Events - Emerging Waves Stage View of Wave Series Development
1. Random Event 1. Discovery
2. Weak Signals 1.1 Establishment
3. Strong Signals 1.2 Development
4. Wild Cards 2. Growth
5. Black Swan Event 3. Plateau
4. Decline
5. Collapse
5.1 Renewal
5.2 Replacement
Spatial versus Temporal Domains Spatial Analysis
(Location)
Temporal Analysis (History)
Sub-atomic Phenomena Transitive
Phenomena Long-lived Phenomena
Space-Time Continuum
Global Phenomena Economic Analysis
Cosmic Space-Time
Temporal Analysis
Earth Sciences
“Goal-seeking” Empirical Research Domains Applied (Experimental) Science
Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
Applied mathematics
Chemistry
Engineering
Geography
Geology
Geo-physics Environmental Sciences
Archaeology
Palaeontology
Complex and Chaotic Research Domains
Narrative (Interpretive) Science
Futures Studies
Weather Forecasting
Strategic Foresight
Complex Systems – Chaos Theory
Predictive Analytics
Data Mining “Big Data” Analytics
Climate Change
Statistics
Cluster Theory Particle Physics
Quantum Mechanics
“Blue Sky” – Pure Research Domains
Pure (Theoretical) Science
Phenomenology
Anthropology and Pre-history
Social Sciences
Sociology
Business Studies / Administration / Strategy
Psychology / Psychiatry / Medicine / Surgery
Behavioural Research Domains
Economics
Life Sciences
History Arts Literature Religion
Law Philosophy Politics
Arts and the Humanities
Biological basis of Behaviour
Biology Ecology
Clinical Trials / Morbidity / Actuarial Science
String Theory
Cosmology
Astronomy
Relativity
Astrophysics
Astrology
Future Management
Pure mathematics
Computational Theory / Information Theory
Taxonomy and Classification
Quantitative Analysis
Universal Phenomena
Local Phenomena
Regional Phenomena
Short-lived Phenomena
Atomic Space-Time
Micro- Phenomena
Space-Time Analytics • 4D Geospatial Analytics is the
profiling and analysis of large
aggregated datasets in order to
determine a ‘natural’ structure of
groupings provides an important
technique for many statistical and
analytic applications.
• Environmental and Demographic
Geospatial Cluster Analysis - on the
basis of profile similarities or
geographic distribution - is a statistical
method whereby no prior assumptions
are made concerning the number of
groups or group hierarchies and
internal structure. Geo-spatial and
geodemographic techniques are
frequently used in order to profile and
segment populations by ‘natural’
groupings - such as common
behavioural traits, Clinical Trial,
Morbidity or Actuarial outcomes - along
with many other shared characteristics
and common factors.....
Space-Time Analytics – London Timeline
Space-Time Analytics – London Timeline
• How did London evolve from its creation as a Roman city in 43AD into the crowded, chaotic
cosmopolitan megacity we see today? What will London look like in the future? The London
Evolution Animation takes a holistic view of what has been constructed in the capital over
different historical periods – what has been lost, what is saved and what will be protected.
• Greater London covers 600 square miles. Up until the 17th century, however, the capital city
was crammed largely into a single square mile which today is marked by the skyscrapers which
are a feature of the financial district of the City. Unlike other historical cities such as Athens or
Rome, with an obvious patchwork of districts from different periods, London's individual
structures scheduled sites and listed buildings are in many cases constructed gradually by parts
assembled during different periods. Researchers who have tried previously to locate and
document archaeological structures and research historic references will know that these
features, when plotted, appear scrambled up like pieces of different jigsaw puzzles – all
scattered across the contemporary London cityscape.
• This visualisation, originally created for the Almost Lost exhibition by the Bartlett Centre for
Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), explores the historic evolution of the city by plotting a
timeline of the development of the road network - along with documented buildings and other
features – through 4D geospatial analysis of a vast number of diverse geographic,
archaeological and historic data sets.
Randomness
SIX VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL
There are six viewpoints or lenses from which we may understand the future: - 1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS
2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS
3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS
4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS
5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURES – EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN ANALYSTS
6. The VIOLET lenses are for a DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS
THE ELTVILLE MODEL
• Many of the issues that we encounter in Future Management Studies – from driving
Private-sector strategic management to formulating Government Political, Economic and
Social Policies - result from attempts to integrate multiple viewpoints from different
people. Everybody subconsciously believes that other people thinks about, articulates and
understands the Future Narrative in exactly the same way as they do. Stakeholders often
tend to assume that everyone else is looking through the same ”futures lenses” - which
may lead to misunderstanding, conflict, frustration or failure.
• The Eltville Model consists of a process model that describes six different viewpoints or
perspectives of the future (the “six futures lenses") - as a sequence of mental steps (for
exploration and discovery in a workshop) environment, and a results model, which
captures the results achieved in the process as "thought objects“.
The SIX futures lenses below make it easier to analyse and understand the future: -
1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS
2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS
3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS
4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS
5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS
6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS
THE ELTVILLE MODEL by Pero Mićić
THE ELTVILLE MODEL by Pero Mićić
• The Eltville Model serves as a holistic "cognitive map" for terms such as scenario,
vision, trend, wild card, assumption etc, - which may frequently be used in varying
context in different ways by diverse stakeholders. The terms used in the Eltville
Model are unambiguously defined and semantically related to each other - and are
further based on wide futures phenomenological analysis,.
– The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us all to structure our future scenarios and thoughts
about future outcomes to formulate future strategy in a coherent way without omitting
any important determining factors or neglecting any essential viewpoints.
– The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us to obtain some clarity on the most important Future
Management outcomes, goals and objectives and communicate in a clear narrative
about the future of our market and our companies place in that market.
– The ELTVILLE MODEL guides us to implement Strategy Analysis and Future
Management methods and tools in the areas where they are most effective.
• The Eltville Model is a result of observation and phenomenological analysis of more
than 800 workshops with management teams. It was developed by Pero Mićić and is
now being developed further by the Future management Groupt consultants
THE ELTVILLE MODEL by Pero Mićić
• The SIX futures lenses and the resulting "ELTVILLE MODEL" bridges the gap between strategic management and corporate planning and futures studies - research for creating a better everyday way of life .
• Using phenomenon-based scenario planning and impact analysis, the ELTVILLE FUTURE MANAGEMENT! MODEL is proven in more than a thousand projects. Future Management Group have defined the essential meaning of Future Management terms and their key application to deliver a cognitive model and a cognitive map from them.
• The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us all to apply the common Strategy Analysis and Strategic Foresight tools much more effectively within a comprehensive Futures Framework. This model also provides participants with a road map for thinking and communicating about the future with your stakeholders and an integrated future-oriented structure for managing strategy delivery projects.
The SIX futures lenses below make it easier to analyse and understand the future: -
1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS 2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS 3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS 4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS 5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS 6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS
• The Eltville Model of Future Management is used by companies and public institutions to
support thinking and communicating about future environmental changes, the early
recognition of future markets, the development of future strategies and the building up of
future competence with a sound system of terms. The Eltville Model provides a
comprehensive and integrated terminology. It links the requirements on scientific future
management with the necessities of a company’s day-to-day business.
• The ELTVILLE MODEL has been developed through futures research in more than a
thousand workshops and projects with governmental and non-profit organizations – as well
as with major corporations around the world, - including BOSCH, Microsoft, BAYER,
AstraZeneca, Roche, Ernst+Young, Ford, Vodafone, EADS and Nestle.
The SIX futures lenses below make it easier to analyse and understand the future: -
1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS
2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS
3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS
4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS
5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN ANALYSTS
6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS
THE ELTVILLE MODEL by Pero Mićić
The Eltville Model – Rational Futurism
1. The ELTVILLE MODEL BLUE lenses are for a PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISM – Rational Futurists believe that the future is, to a large extent, both unknown and unknowable. Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – and therefore it is impossible to predict the future. With chaos comes the potential for disruption. Possible and Alternative Futures emerge from the interaction of chaos and uncertainty amongst the interplay of current trends and emerging factors of change – presenting an inexorable mixture of challenges and opportunities.
• Probable future outcomes and events may be synthesised and implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of Weak Signals, inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and disruptive Wild Card and Black Swan events. Just as the future remains uncertain, indeterminate and unpredictable, so it will be volatile and enigmatic – but it may also be subject to synthesis by man.....
The Probabilistic Future – Synthesis: - – Rational Futurism
– Weak Signals and Wild Cards
– Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
– Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking
– Cognitive Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation
– Nominal Group Conferences and Delphi Surveys
The Eltville Model – Disruptive Futurism
2. The ELTVILLE MODEL RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISM – Disruptive Futurism is an ongoing forward analysis of the impact of new and emerging factors of Disruptive Change on Environmental, Political, Economic, Social, Industrial, Agronomy and Technology and how Disruptive Change is driving Business and Technology Innovation. Understanding how current patterns, trends and extrapolations along with emerging agents and catalysts of change interact with chaos, disruption and uncertainty (Random Events) - to create novel opportunities – as well as posing clear and present dangers that threaten the status quo of the world as we know it today.....
• The purpose of the “Disruptive Futurist” role is to provide future analysis and strategic direction to support senior client stakeholders who are charged by their organisations with thinking about the future. This involves enabling clients to anticipate, prepare for and manage the future by helping them to understanding how the future might unfold - thus realising the Stakeholder Strategic Vision and Communications / Benefits Realisation Strategies. This is achieved by scoping, influencing and shaping client organisational change and driving technology innovation to enable rapid business transformation.
• Future Threats and Chaos – Disruptive Futurism -
– Risk Management – Disruptive Change – Weak Signals and Wild cards – Black Swan (Random) Events – Complex Systems and Chaos Theory – Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking
The Eltville Model – Evolutionary Futurism
3. In the ELTVILLE MODEL GREEN lenses represent FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISM – Evolutionists believe that the geological, ecological and climatic systems interact with human activity to behave as a self-regulating collection of loosely coupled forces and systems – the Gaia Theory. Global Massive Change is driven by climatic, geological, biosphere, anthropologic and geo-political systems dominate at the macro-level – and at the micro-level local weather, ecology and environmental, social and economic sub-systems prevail.
4. The future will evolve from a series of actions and events which emerge, unfold and develop – and then plateau, decline and collapse. These actions and events are essentially natural responses to human impact on ecological and environmental support systems - creating massive global change through population growth, environmental degradation and scarcity of natural resources. Over the long term, global stability and sustainability of those systems will be preserved – at the expense of world-wide human population levels.
• The Creatable Future – Opportunities: - – Evolution - Opportunities and Adaptation
– Geological Cycles and Biological Systems
– Social Anthropology and Human Behaviour
– Global Massive Change and Human Impact
– Climatic Studies and Environmental Science
– Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis
The Eltville Model – Goal Analysis
4. In the ELTVILLE MODEL GOLD lenses stand for our PREFERED and DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS believe that the future will be governed by the orchestrated vision, beliefs, goals and objectives of various influential and well connected Global Leaders, working with other stakeholders - movers, shakers and influencers such as the good and the great in Industry, Economics, Politics and Government, along with other well integrated and highly coordinated individuals from Academia, Media and Society in general – and realised through the plans and actions of global and influential organizations, institutions and groups to which they belong.
• The shape of the future may thus be discerned by Goal Analysis and interpretation of the policies, behaviours and actions of such individuals and of those groups to which they subscribe and belong.
The Preferred Future – Vision: -
– Goal Analysis
– Value Models and Roadmaps
– Political Science and Policy Studies
– Religious Studies and Future Beliefs
– Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science
– Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis
The Eltville Model – Extrapolation Analysis
5. In the ELTVILLE MODEL – INDIGO lenses are for EXTRAPOLATION – PATTERN and TREND ANALYSIS. Extrapolation, Pattern and Trend Analysts believe that the past is the key to the future-present. The future-present is therefore just a logical extrapolation, extension and continuum of past events, carried foreword on historic waves, cycles, patterns and trends.....
• Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again – everything that is the same must return again in its own everlasting cycle.....
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •
• As the future-present develops and unfolds – it does so as a continuum of time past, time present and time future – and so eternally perpetuating the eternally unfolding, extension, replication and preservation of those historic cycles, patterns and trends that have shaped and influenced actions and events throughout time.
The Probable Future – Assumptions: -
– Patent and Content Analysis – Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) – Fisher-Pry and Gompertz Analysis – Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation – Technology and Precursor Trend Analysis – Morphological Matrices and Analogy Analysis
The Eltville Model - Strategic Positivism
6. The ELTVILLE MODEL VIOLET lenses are for STRATEGIC POSITIVISM – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS are deterministic, and believe that their future outcomes, goals and objectives can be determined via Strategic Foresight and delivered through Future Management – strategy planning, design and action – so that the attainable future becomes both realistic and achievable.
• The future may develop and unfold so as to comply with our positive vision of an ideal future – and thus fulfil all of our desired outcomes, goals and objectives – so that our preferred options may ultimately be realised.
• The Planned Future – Strategy: - – Linear Systems and Game Theory
– Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
– Future Landscape Modelling and Terrain Mapping
– Threat Assessment and Risk Management
– Economic Modelling and Financial Analysis
– Strategic Foresight and Future Management
Enterprise Risk Management
Qui ne risque rien n'a rien…..
Threat Analysis, Hazard Research and Risk Management
The Nature of Uncertainty – Randomness
Thermodynamics (Complexity and Chaos Theory) – governs the behaviour of Systems randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces.....
Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) – governs the behaviour of everyday objects – any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces.....
Quantum Mechanics – governs the behaviour of unimaginably small sub-atomic particles – all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random.....
Relativity Theory – governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures – any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Dynamics.....
Wave Mechanics (String Theory) – integrates the behaviour of every type of object –randomness and asymmetry is a result of Unknown Forces and Quantum Dynamics.....
Enterprise Risk Management
• The underlying premise of Enterprise Risk Management is that every enterprise exists to provide value for its stakeholders. All entities face uncertainty, and the challenge for management is to determine how much uncertainty to accept as it strives to grow stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both risk and opportunity, with the potential to erode or enhance value. Enterprise Risk Management enables leadership to deal effectively with uncertainty and its associated risk and opportunity - enhancing capacity to build sustainable growth and long-term value.
• Enterprise Risk Management value is maximised when management leadership sets policy, strategy and objectives to strike an optimal balance between growth and return on investment - with their related goals and risks - deploying resources efficiently and effectively in pursuit of the enterprise’s desired future outcomes.
• These capabilities inherent in enterprise risk management help the leadership team to achieve the enterprise’s performance and profitability targets whilst preventing the loss, attrition or devaluation of enterprise resources – and in so doing, protecting and preserving corporate assets. Enterprise Risk Management helps to ensure effective reporting and compliance with laws and regulations, and helps avoid damage to the enterprise’s reputation - and any consequential losses. In sum, enterprise risk management helps an enterprise to realise its corporate plans and business strategies - avoiding pitfalls and surprises along the way.
Enterprise Risk Management
• Events – Risks and Opportunities. Events can have negative impact, positive impact, or both. Events with a negative impact represent risks, which can prevent value creation or erode existing value. Events with positive impact may offset negative impacts or represent opportunities. Opportunities are the possibility that an event will occur and positively affect the achievement of objectives, supporting value creation or preservation. Management channels opportunities back to its strategy or objective-setting processes, formulating plans to seize the opportunities.
• Enterprise Risk Management deals with risks and opportunities affecting the process of value creation or preservation – and is described as follows: -
– Enterprise Risk Management is a process, implemented by an enterprise’s board of directors, leadership, management and other personnel, and is applied both in a strategy setting and in every operational activity across the entire enterprise. Enterprise Risk Management is designed to identify potential threat events that may affect the enterprise, to manage those threats within its risk appetite and tolerances – and to provide reasonable comfort and assurance towards the achievement of operational and strategic enterprise objectives.
• This Enterprise Risk Management definition is purposefully broad. It captures key concepts fundamental to how companies and other organizations manage risk, providing a basis for application across organizations, industries, and sectors. It focuses directly on achievement of objectives established by a particular enterprise and provides a basis for defining enterprise risk management effectiveness.
Enterprise Risk Management
• This definition reflects fundamental Enterprise Risk Management concepts: -
– A process set or group, ongoing and flowing through an entire enterprise
– Implemented by people at every level within an organisation
– Supported by technology - Enterprise Risk Management Systems
– Developed in a strategy setting, planning, forecasting and implemented by operational management
– Applied across the whole enterprise, at every segment and unit, and includes taking an enterprise level portfolio view of risk
– Designed to identify potential events that, if they occur, will affect the enterprise and to manage risk within its risk appetite
– Able to provide reasonable and acceptable Risk Management assurance to an enterprise’s senior management and board of directors
– Geared to the achievement of performance objectives in many separate but related categories
• This definition is purposefully broad. It captures key concepts fundamental to how companies and other organizations manage risk, providing a basis for application across organizations, industries, and sectors. It focuses directly on achievement of objectives established by a particular enterprise and provides a basis for defining your own organisations specific Enterprise Risk Management Framework.
Primary Risk Functions
• The Primary Risk Functions in large corporations that may participate in an Enterprise Risk Management programme typically include the following: -
– Strategic planning and forecasting - identifies competitive opportunities and external threats, along with strategic initiatives to exploit or address them
– Disaster and contingency planning - identifies business continuity issues
– Research and Development - understands core value propositions to ensure that future product / service development falls within corporate requirements
– Marketing and Product Engineering - understands the target customer to ensure product / service alignment within customer expectations and needs
– Finance and Accounting - identifies business performance management issues
– Actuarial Services - ensures the proper insurance cover for the organisation
– Treasury - ensures cash-flow is sufficient to meet business needs, whilst managing risk related to commodity pricing, interest and foreign exchange
• The Primary Risk Functions in large corporations that may participate in an Enterprise Risk Management programme typically include the following: -
– Financial Compliance – follows GAAP / IFRS recommendations and directs Sarbanes-Oxley Section 302 and 404 assessments, in addition to Basle II / Solvency II compliance - which identifies financial reporting and disclosure risks.
– Legal Services - manages litigation and analyses emerging government policy, legislation and regulation that may have future impact upon the organisation
– Regulatory and Statutory Compliance – provides governance and controls, monitors compliance with standards and initiates money laundering and fraud investigations - as well as dealing with Reputational Risk issues
– Quality Assurance - verifies operational quality assurance targets are achieved
– Operations Management – ensures that day-to-day operational performance is on target and that any operational issues are surfaced for resolution
Primary Risk Functions (continued)
• The Primary Risk Functions in large corporations that may participate in an Enterprise Risk Management programme typically include the following: -
– Credit Management - ensures that any credit facilities provided to customers is appropriate in respect of their Credit History and ability to repay the advance
– Customer Services – manages the customer experience / journey and ensures that problems are handled promptly and reported to operations for resolution
– Information Technology – follows Clinger-Cohen guidelines for due diligence in IT Procurement, implements Business Intelligence, “Big Data” Intelligent Agents / Alerts, Digital Dashboards and Reporting for Risk Controls and maintains Risk Event Identification / Incident Capture Systems for Risk Monitoring / Reporting
– Internal audit - evaluates Risk Event Identification / Incident Capture and Risk Controls; directs non-compliance / fraud investigation, monitoring and reporting
– Risk Management – maintains the Enterprise Risk Management Framework , audits and evaluates the effectiveness of each of the above risk functions and recommends any required improvements
Primary Risk Functions (continued)
Enterprise Risk Management
• What is Risk Management ?
• Enterprise Risk Management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. Any risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: -
– Risk Research – evaluating / understanding the problem / opportunity domain
– Risk Identification – identifying applicable threats, risk groups, types & events
– Risk Prioritisation – ordering and prioritising relevant threats by risk probability
and magnitude
– Risk Assessment – comparing and balancing the individual threat posed by
each risk item in the ordered and prioritised risk register
– Risk Management Strategies – methods for transferring, avoiding, reducing or
accepting the risk
– Risk Planning – assessing the overall level of threat contained within the
consolidated risk register
– Risk Mitigation – reducing uncertainty through the application of strategic
foresight and future management planning processes
Enterprise Risk Management
• Risk Management Strategies may include the following: -
– Transferring the risk to another party
– Avoiding the risk
– Reducing the negative effect of the risk
– Accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .
• In an ideal Risk Management Scenario, a prioritisation process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order
• In practice this prioritisation process can be very challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - may lead to misleading results.....
Intangible Risk Management
• Intangible Risk Management hypothesises a different type of threat - a risk that has
a 100% probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to an inability
to recognise an unavoidable threat, or the failure to identify an intangible risk: -
– Process-engagement Risk may pose a threat when processes are ineffective,
incomplete or broken and operational procedures are misapplied (or not
applied).
– Knowledge Risk may materialise when insufficient knowledge is available in a
threat domain, or a deficient level of knowledge is applied to a threat situation,.
– Relationship Risk may occur when group dynamics are disrupted, morale
breaks down, or communication, collaboration and team-working become
ineffective.
• Intangible Risk Management allows risk managers to create immediate value from
the identification and reduction of hidden risks that reduce productivity.
• Such Intangible Risks may reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease
cost effectiveness, erode profitability and service and quality whilst compromising
reputation, brand value, market share and earnings.
Opportunity Cost Management
• Risk Management Strategies also face operational difficulties in providing sufficient enterprise resources or allocating those resources appropriately. This is the concept of Opportunity Cost and may constitute: -
– Resources denied to risk management that could have been deployed more profitably on managing and avoiding risk.
– Resources over-expended on risk management that could have been spent elsewhere in the business on more profitable applications.
• Ideal Risk Management Scenarios minimizes spending whilst maximizing the reduction of the organisational impact and negative effects of such risks.
– Prioritisation ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and / or the
greatest probability of occurrence -to be treated first
– Those Risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses
are then handled in descending order
– Risk Management seeks to balance and optimise the overall threat impact of
risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with
greater potential loss but lower probability of occurrence
Enterprise Risk Management
• Aligning risk appetite and risk management strategy – Management considers the enterprise’s capability to absorb risk (risk appetite) in evaluating strategic alternatives, setting related objectives, and developing mechanisms to manage related risk groups.
• Enhancing risk response decisions – Enterprise Risk Management provides the rigor to identify and select among alternative risk scenarios and responses –identification and assessment of threats, risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk sharing and risk acceptance.
• Reducing operational surprises and losses – Entities gain enhanced capability to identify potential threat events and establish threat responses - reducing their exposure to surprises and “black swan” events and their associated unplanned costs or losses.
• Identifying and managing multiple and cross-enterprise risks – Every enterprise faces a myriad of risks affecting different parts of the organization, and Enterprise Risk Management facilitates effective response to the interrelated impacts, and integrated management of multiple threat scenarios and exposure to groups of related risks.
• Seizing opportunities – By considering and mitigating a full range of potential threat events, management is well positioned to identify and proactively realise opportunities.
• Improving deployment of capital – Obtaining robust risk exposure information allows management to effectively assess overall capital needs and enhance capital allocation.
Risk Clusters and Connectivity
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
6
The above is an illustration of risk relationships - how risk events might be connected. A detailed and
intimate understanding of risk clusters and the connection between risks may help us to understand: -
• What is the relationship between Risks 1 and 8, and what impact do they have on Risks 2 - 7 ?
• Risks 2 - 5 and Risks 6 and 7 occur in clusters – what are the factors influencing these clusters ?
Answering questions such as these allows us to plan our risk management approach and mitigation
strategy – and to decide how to better focus our resources and effort on risk and fraud management.
Claimant 1
Risk Event
Claimant 2 Residence
Vehicle
Risk
Cluster
Risk Clusters and Connectivity
• Aggregated risk includes coincident, related, connected and interconnected risk: -
• Coincident - two or more risks appear simultaneously in the same domain – but
they arise from different triggers (unrelated causal events)
• Related - two more risks materialise in the same domain sharing common risk
features or characteristics (may share a possible hidden common trigger or cause
– and so are candidates for further analysis and investigation)
• Connected - two more risks materialise in the same domain due to the same
trigger (common cause)
• Interconnected - two more risks materialise together in a risk cluster or event
series - the previous (prior) risk event triggering the subsequent (next) risk event
• Aggregated risks may result in a significant cumulative impact - and are therefore
frequently identified incorrectly as Wild-card or Black Swan Events - rather than just
simply as risk clusters or event “storms”.....
Aggregated Risk
A Trigger A
Coincident Risk
B Trigger B
Risk Event
Risk Event
C Trigger
Related Risk
D Trigger
Risk Event
Risk Event
E
Trigger
Connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event F
G Trigger
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
H
Trigger D
USA Sub-Prime
Mortgage Crisis
Trigger F
CDO Toxic
Asset Crisis
K
E Trigger
K Sovereign
Debt Crisis
B Trigger
I
Money
Supply
Shock
C Trigger
H
Financial
Services
Sector
Collapse
D Trigger
G
L
A Trigger
J
Credit
Crisis
Global
Recession
Black Swan Events
Definition of a “Black Swan” Event
• A “Black Swan” Event is an event or
occurrence that deviates beyond what is
normally expected of any given situation
and that would be extremely difficult to
predict. The term “Black Swan” was
popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a
finance professor and former Investment
Fund Manager and Wall Street trader.
• Black Swan Events – are unforeseen,
sudden and extreme change events or
Global-level transformations in either the
military, political, social, economic or
environmental landscape. Black Swan
Events are a complete surprise when
they occur and all feature an inordinately
low probability of occurrence - coupled
with an extraordinarily high impact when
they do happen (Nassim Taleb). “Black Swan” Event Cluster or “Storm”
Trading and Risk Management
Market Risk
• MARKET RISK •
Market Risk = Market Sentiment – Actual Results (Reality)
• The two Mood States – “Greed and Fear” are primitive human instincts which, until now,
we've struggled to accurately qualify and quantify. Social Networks, such as Twitter and
Facebook, burst on to the scene five years ago and have since grown into internet giants.
Facebook has over 900 million active members and Twitter over 250 million, with users
posting over 2 billion "tweets“ or messages every week. This provides hugely valuable and
rich insights into how Market Sentiment and Market Risk are impacting on Share Support /
Resistance Price Levels – and so is also a source of real-time data that can be “mined” by
super-fast computers to forecast changes to Commodity Price Curves
• Derwent Capital Markets - the sentiment analysis provider launched by Paul Hawtin in May
2012 following the dissolution of his "Twitter Market Sentiment Fund", sold yesterday to the
highest bidder at the end of a two-week online auction. The winning bid came from a Financial
Technology (Fin Tech) firm, which Hawtin declined to name. Hawtin had set a guide price of
£5 million ($7.8m), but claimed at the start of the auction process that any bid over and above
the £350,000 ($543,000) cash he had invested would represent a successful outcome.....
Financial Markets around the world are driven by “greed and fear”.....
Derwent Capital Markets – Market Risk = Market Sentiment – Actual Results (Reality).....
• Derwent Capital Markets is using Twitter to figure out where the money is going - just like that. A hedge
fund that analyzed tweets to figure out where to invest its managed funds closed its doors to new
investors last year – after just one month in which it made 1.86% Profit – Annual Projection 21% reports
the Financial Times. “As a result we made the strategic decision to re-use the Social Market Sentiment
Engine behind the Derwent Absolute Return Fund – and invest directly in developing a Social Media on-
line trading platform” commented Derwent Capital Markets founder Paul Hawtin,
Info-graphic – Apple Historic Stock Data Analysis.....
• Investors and traders around the world have accepted the fact that financial markets are driven by
“greed and fear”. This info-graphic is an example of the kind of correlation we see between historic stock
price and social media sentiment data. A trading advantage can arrive if you spot a significant change in
sentiment which is a leading asset price indicator. Derwent Capital Markets are pioneers in trading the
financial markets using global sentiment derived from large scale social media analysis.
Mood states – “greed and fear”.....
• These two mood states are primitive human instincts which, until now, we've struggled to accurately
quantify. Social networks, such as Twitter and Facebook, burst on to the scene five years ago and have
since grown into internet giants. Facebook has over 900 million active members and Twitter over 250
million, with users posting over 2 billion "tweets“ or messages every week. This provides a hugely
valuable and rich source of real-time data that can be “mined” by super-fast computers.....
CFD Trading, Spread Betting and FX Trading using “Big Data”
Market Risk
Apple Historic Stock Data Analysis Info-graphic using “Big Data”
MARKET RISK = MARKET SENTIMENT – ACTUAL RESULTS (REALITY)
Market Risk
Trading and Risk Management
Example – Inter-connected Risk
A Trigger
A
Freedom of Information Act (USA)
B Trigger
B
Financial Services De-regulation Act (USA)
Employers can now view unspent convictions when reviewing job applications from Convicted Felons
Convicted Felons can now apply for jobs
as Independent Financial Agents (IFAs)
C Trigger
C
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
D
Related Risk Example – Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis
The only jobs easily available to Convicted Felons is
as self-employed Independent Financial Agents (IFAs)
Risk Event
Risk Event
Independent Financial Agents (IFAs) miss-sell Sub -prime Mortgages in Unregulated Financial Markets
Risk Event
E
Mortgagees with miss-sold Sub -prime Mortgages cover year one and two repayments of their low-start mortgage payment plan – but struggle as interest and monthly payments rise
Risk Event
F
Mortgagees with miss-sold Sub -prime Mortgages begin to default
on repayments when their monthly payments rise at the end of the
low-start payment plan and increase in interest rates – so mortgages are foreclosed , they are evicted and their homes become re-possessed.
Trigger D
USA Sub-Prime
Mortgage Crisis
Related Risk Example – Credit Default Obligation (CDO) - Toxic Asset Crisis
Trigger D
USA Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis
Example – Inter-connected Risk
G Trigger
E
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
H
Rating Agencies (e.g. Standard and Poors etc.) award AAA Rating to Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products
Risk Event
I
Investment Analysts in US and European Banks recommend that their clients invest in sub-prime Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products with AAA Rating
Risk Event
J
US and European Banks invest heavily in sub-prime
Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products with AAA Rating In expectation of low risk / high returns on investments
Trigger F
CDO Toxic
Asset Crisis
Merchant Banks rack-and-stack tranches of sub-prime mortgages into Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products
K
E Trigger
K Sovereign Debt Crisis
B Trigger
I
Money
Supply
Shock
C Trigger
H
Financial
Services
Sector
Collapse
D Trigger
G
L
CDO Products
A Trigger
J
Credit
Crisis
Global Recession
Risk Management Frameworks
Risk Management Frameworks
Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again –
everything that is the same must return again in its own
everlasting cycle.....
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •
Risk Management Frameworks
Standard (Integrated) Risk Framework
• Systemic (external) Risk – Future Management Frameworks – Outsights / Eltville Model
• Operational (internal) Risk – CLAS, SOX / COBIT
• Market (macro-economic) Risk – COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA
• Trade (micro-economic) Risk – COSO, SOX / COBIT, GAAP / IFRS
Event Risk
• Event Risk is the threat of loss from unexpected events. Event Risk measurement systems seek to quantify the
actual or potential (realised or unrealised) exposure of the total asset portfolio to unexpected Wild Card or Black
Swan Events. Event Risk may arise from Systemic (external) sources – such as Natural Disaster, Geo-political
Crisis, or the collapse of Local, Regional or Global Markets or the failure of Sovereign Nation States - or Operational
(internal) sources – such as Rogue Trading or the failure of Compliance or Disclosure systems and processes.
Market Risk
• Market Risk is the threat of loss from movements in the level or volatility of Market Prices – such as interest rates,
foreign currencies, equities and commodities. Market Risk measurement systems seek to recognise the actual or
potential (realised or unrealised) exposure of the total asset portfolio as a result of money supply or commodity price
shocks (sudden changes in the balance between supply and demand) and changes in market sentiment affecting
the attractiveness, desirability or value of the asset portfolio – as well as changes in the level of market intervention
(government legislation or market regulation).
Trade Risk
• Trade Risk is the threat of loss from erosion in the attractiveness, desirability or value of specific traded instruments
between individual counterparties – including contracts for foreign currencies, equities and commodities. Trade Risk
measurement systems seek to quantify the actual or potential (realised or unrealised) value of specific contracts or
traded instruments, Trade Risk does not cover Incremental Risk Capital Charge (IRC) due to Toxic Asset lock-in.
Risk Types
Operational Risk Types
Internal Risk Group
Employee
Third Party
B A
Human Risk
Process Risk
3rd Party Risk
G
Systemic Risk Types
External Risk Group
B
Security Risk
F
Legal Risk
D
C
Technology Risk
- Liquidity Risk
Economic Risk
E
Compliance Risk
F D
H
E
A
G C
Disaster / Catastrophe Risk
Sponsorship
Risk
Stakeholders
Political Risk
Social Risk
Environment Risk
Security Risk
Terrorism / Piracy Risk
- Credit Risk
D
Competitor Risk
J
F
Wild-card
Event Risk
Black Swan
Event Risk
Risk Management Frameworks
Credit Risk
• Credit Risk is the threat of loss from changes in the status or liquidity of individual external debtors – changes in their
ability to service debts due to movement in their credit status, capitalisation, liquidity or solvency – or their exposure
to consequential losses due to statutory, regulatory or legal action. Credit Risk measurement systems seek to
quantify the actual or potential (realised / unrealised) ability of a Creditor to fulfil their contractual obligations.
Liquidity Risk – Solvency II and Basle II
• Liquidity Risk is the threat of loss from changes in the status or liquidity of an organisation –changes in their ability to
service debts due to internal movement in their credit status, capitalisation, liquidity or solvency – or their exposure to
consequential losses due to external statutory, regulatory or legal action. Liquidity Risk measurement systems seek to
quantify actual or potential (realised / unrealised) ability of a Bank or Insurer to meet provided / exposed liabilities.
• Basle II and Solvency II are Rules-based, Quantitative Risk Frameworks. The overhaul of the capital adequacy and
solvency rules is now well under way for European Financial Services - Banking and insurance - Life and Pensions,
General Insurers, Underwriters and Re-insurers -. Key drivers for Basle II and Solvency II include the following: -
• Key drivers for Basle II and Solvency II: -
• – EC directive around capital adequacy of Financial Services Companies
• – Critical requirement to bolster capital and strengthen balance sheets
• – Need to have reporting systems in place to demonstrate compliance
• – Deadline is Q4 2010 – so aggressive timeline for implementation
• – Fines and imprisonment for non-compliance or non-disclosure
• – Major insurance companies will invest £100m + in Compliance Programmes
• – Strategy, Business Process, Architecture and Technology changes
• – Specialisations include compliance, risk, finance, actuarial science
Risk Types
Trade Risk Types
Traded Instrument
Trader
Counterparty
B A
Fraud Risk
Insurance Risk
Counterparty Risk
D
Market Risk Types
Commodity
B
Market
Sentiment
Quantity Risk
E
Price Risk
G
C Exchange Rate Risk
- Credit Risk
- Liquidity Risk
Market Participants
F
Contract Risk
G D
I
F
H C
Currency Risk
Commodity Risk
Financial Risk
Regulatory Risk
Wild-card
Event Risk
Black Swan
Event Risk
E
Interest Rate Risk
A Money
Markets
Compliance
Risk
Supervisors
H
Statutory Risk
Legislative Regulators
Price-shock
Risk
Risk Management Frameworks
• Systemic Risk (external threats) - Eltville Model, Future Management Framework, Outsights
– Political Risk – Political Science, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight
– Economic Risk – Fiscal Policy, Economic Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting
– Social Risk – Population Growth and Migration, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight
– Environmental Risk – Climate Change, Environmental Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting
– Event Risk – exposure to unexpected local, regional or global events
• Wild Card Events – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Weak Signals
• Black Swan Events – Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Future Management
• Market Risk (macro-economic threats) - COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA
– Financial Risk – Traded Instrument Product Analysis, Valuation and Financial Management
– Currency Risk – FX Curves and Exchange-rate Forecasting
– Commodity Risk – Price Curves and Supply-Demand Forecasting
– Money Supply Risk – Interest Rate Curves and Money-market Forecasting
• Trade Risk (micro-economic threats) - COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA
– Credit Risk – Credit Rating, Balanced Scorecard, Debtor Forecasting and Analysis
– Contract Risk – Asset Valuation, Credit Default Propensity Modelling
– Liquidity Risk – Solvency and Capital Adequacy Rules (Solvency II / Basle II)
– Insurance Risk – Underwriting Due Diligence and Compliance
– Actuarial Risk – Geo-demographic profiling and Morbidity Analysis
– Counter-Party Risk – Counter-Party Threat Analysis and Risk Management
– Fraud Risk (Rogue Trading) – Real-time Analytics at Point-of-Contract-Execution
Risk Types
Clinical Risk Types
Clinical Risk Group
Employee
Patient
B
A
Human Risk Process
Risk
D
Morbidity Risk Types
Morbidity Risk Group
C
Legal Risk
F
3rd Party Risk
G
C
Technology Risk
Trauma Risk
E
Morbidity Risk
H E
J
G
A
I D
Immunological System Risk
Sponsorship
Stakeholders Disease
Risk
Shock Risk
Cardiovascular System Risk
Pulmonary System Risk
Toxicity Risk
Organ Failure Risk
- Airways
- Conscious
- Bleeding
Triage Risk
- Performance
- Finance
- Standards
Compliance Risk
H
Patient Risk
Neurological System Risk
F
B
Predation Risk
Risk Management Frameworks
• Operational Risk (internal / external operational threats) - CLAS, SOX / COBIT
– Legal Risk – Contractual Law Due Diligence and Compliance
– Statutory Risk – Legislative Due Diligence and Compliance
– Regulatory Risk – Regulatory Due Diligence and Compliance
– Competitor Risk – Competitor Analysis, Defection Detection and Churn Management
– Reputational Risk – Internet Content Scanning, Intervention and Threat Management
• Business Operations Risk (internal business threats)
– Process Risk – Business Strategy / Architecture, Enterprise Target Operating Model (eTOM) / Business
Process Management (BPM) Verification /Validation
– Stakeholder Risk – Benefits Realisation Strategy and Communications Management
– Information Risk – Information Strategy and Architecture, Data Quality Management
– Disclosure Risk – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls (SOX / COBIT)
• Digital Communications and Technology Risk (internal technology threats)
– Technology Risk – Technology Strategy and Architecture
– Security Risk – Security Principles, Policies, Architecture and Models (CLAS)
– Vendor / 3rd Party Risk – Strategic Vendor Analysis and Supply Chain Management
Thinking about the Future of Energy…..
How different will tomorrow be? The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions
are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved
tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of many major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on technologies that will take many years to develop
and mature
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)
Thinking About the Future of Energy
• The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on emerging technologies that may take many years to establish, develop and mature.
• Inevitably, much will change over those time frames. Unexpected geopolitical clashes will disrupt markets. Economic performance will be surprising. innovative Technology will bring in to focus new energy sources and change the competitive balance. Governments will undoubtedly change their minds on the dominance of laisez-faire market forces on the one hand, and imposition of regulation and state ownership on the other - and flip the balance between extremes more than once.
• Today, the outlook for regulation of carbon emissions creates another layer of uncertainty. There could be strong pressure to change the fuel choices in the face of tighter carbon regulations. Or the other hand, the international community may fail to agree on effective carbon controls, and state legislation and regulation could be absent, limited or not effectively enforced. There will certainly be much debate as to whether to rely on markets or regulation to meet climate change targets and goals.
Thinking About the Future of Energy
• How do we make decisions in the face of such chaos, disruption and uncertainty?
• “Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis” can play a very useful role. A disciplined process of scenario development provides a framework for managing the possibility of chaos, disruption and uncertainty. These are not forecasts or extrapolations. Rather, they are logical “stories” about alternative futures that force one to think about the “what-ifs,” the surprises and the range of uncertainties. Think of them as thought experiments, but grounded in wide-ranging research and analysis. Our energy scenarios combine structured narratives of how the larger world could evolve in the future with detailed energy market modeling. Yes, they are thought experiments, but the objective is to help people to think systematically about trends and the potential for changes, ruptures and discontinuities. Scenarios, of course, can be used for any industry or for public policy.
• Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) recently completed a study entitled “Dawn of a New Age - The Future Energy Timeline to 2030”: which presents three possible, probable and alternative long-term energy scenarios. The objective of the study is to clarify the risks and choices ahead. Each of the scenarios examines an important strategic question about how the world may unfold over the next 25 years and what this means for energy markets (see CERA’s Dawn of a New Age Scenarios in Brief).
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Price Index Inflation
Scenario 1 - The Asian Phoenix
• SCENARIO 1 - What happens if the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India – along with other countries in Asia Pacific continue to grow at their current rate?
• The Asian Phoenix Scenario examines the implications of a possible scenario for energy markets of such a transformed world. In this scenario, Asia reaches 54 percent of world GDP in 2030 and grows from its current 29 percent of world energy consumption to 42 percent. Continued strong economic growth in Asia pushes oil consumption to new highs. Tight markets keep prices well above the last 25 year average price per barrel.
• One outcome is that the international rivalry and competition for access to oil and gas resources not only grows but involves new players. “Eastern oil companies” emerge to compete with the traditional Western companies, especially in new regions of supply such as Central Asia and Africa. Another result, perhaps surprising to some, is that coal consumption will grow substantially, particularly in China and India. Coal powers these nations to new global standing but it also will become, if without mitigation, an increasing source of geopolitical tension as climate concerns mount.
Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point
• SCENARIO 2 - What would happen if oil prices move well above $100 price per barrel as experienced a few years ago? Could oil and gas lose its current totally dominant position in the energy sector? These are the questions that the Oil Price Break Point Scenario explores in the most probable scenario - a world in which oil breaks through the $100 per barrel barrier for a sustained period of time. In this scenario, it is not shortage of oil and gas resources as reserves above ground - nor accessible / exploitable hydrocarbon reservoirs below ground that pushes prices up - but rather global geopolitical events. This scenario demonstrates how ultra-high oil prices and global energy insecurity could unleash the second collapse in a double-dip depression - with a mix of policy and price responses along with enhanced technology innovation that would propel the worlds major industrial economies to begin finally to break away from the current massive dependency on hydrocarbon energy sources.
• In this scenario, one result of government and industry action, and new entrants in the energy business, is that by 2020, oil no longer has a monopoly grip on the transportation sector. Other liquid fuels derived from bio-fuels, kerogen oil shale, oil tar sands, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and even solid-to-gas (methane hydrate) technologies jostle for commercial feasibility and market share. Plug-in hybrid sources may also begin to win market share in such a high-cost energy future,
Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point
• SCENARIO 2 - Another outcome of high energy prices explored in detail within the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is progress toward reducing carbon emissions. National security concerns associated with high oil prices work hand-in-hand with concern over climate change (see “Aspen Group Declaration of Energy Independence”).
• Dessertec is investing in a massive Photo-voltaic array the size of Wales – deep in the heart of the Sahara Dessert. The European Union is planning a European Super-grid to transmit this energy to consumers. In the UK, there are advanced plans for an off-shore Grid to service Wind and Wave power generation farms in the North Sea .
• The result is that across the U.S., Europe, Japan and even the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India - new energy policies are embraced that expand investment in renewable energy, nuclear and emerging carbon capture and storage technologies. The high oil price scenario also creates strong incentives to improve global energy efficiency. A feature of the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is that global energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP) in 2030 is reduced by 32 percent in comparison with the 2005 baseline.
Scenario 3 – Geo-political Fissures
• SCENARIO 3 - What would happen if public opinion and government support for globalization around the world wanes as war, terrorism, economic insecurity and social exclusion feeds increased nationalism, isolationism and protectionism? That is the question at the heart of the Global Geo-political Fissures Scenario – under which energy markets could evolve in an entirely novel way as suggested in this alternative scenario. Diminished economic growth would cause oil prices to tumble back into the sub $50 range. In this scenario, governments assert more control over the energy sector. The trend in the electric power industry in many countries is to move away from competition and toward corporate responsibility with social mandates and more regulatory intervention-in some cases, even the nationalization of assets.
• Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the future of energy, there is a need for structured ways of thinking about how the future may unfold. The next 25 years will be full of surprises. Scenarios can help us better prepare for these surprises - and perhaps even anticipate those surprises before they impact or materialize.
• Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power” and the United States Energy Award for lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA at http://cera.ecnext.com.
Scenario 4 – Geo-political Collapse
• SCENARIO 4 -- Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - Over the next ten years - the cost of energy of all types climbs above the rate of inflation – then rises more steeply. Energy Prices begin to become more unstable, oscillating wildly between High Price / Low Demand and Low Price / High Demand - until the price of energy becomes so unpredictable that Energy Commodities are no longer tradable – so that Energy markets collapse.
• As a result of the Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - societies around the world plateau, decline and then collapse due to resource scarcity and energy shortage. Industrial nations turn inwards to self-sufficiency based “localisation” economic strategies and solutions. Only societies with access to sustainable natural resources - clean water, good soil, temperate climates, maintainable agriculture, and sufficient sources of renewable energy – alone maintain any semblance of an industrial economy - and so retain a level of civilization that we could recognize as such today.
Doug Blair - Carnegie Mellon University
The Hydrogen Economy
The Hydrogen Economy • The Third Industrial Revolution: Leading the Way to a Green Energy Era and a
Hydrogen Economy - Jeremy Rifkin
Lecture Synopsis: • We are approaching the sunset of the oil era in the first half of the
21st century. The price of oil on global markets continues to climb and peak global oil is within sight in the coming decades. At the same time, the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is raising the earth's temperature and threatening an unprecedented change in the chemistry of the planet and global climate, with ominous consequences for the future of human civilization and the ecosystems of the earth.
The Hydrogen Economy
• While oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to provide a substantial portion of
the world's and the European Union's energy well into the 21st century, there is
a growing consensus that we are entering a twilight period where the full costs
of our fossil fuel addiction is beginning to act as a drag on the world economy.
During this twilight era, the 27 EU member states are making every effort to
ensure that the remaining stock of fossil fuels is used more efficiently and are
experimenting with clean energy technologies to limit carbon dioxide emissions
in the burning of conventional fuels.
• These efforts fall in line with the EU mandate that the member states increase
energy efficiency 20 percent by 2020 and reduce their global warming
emissions 20 percent (based on 1990 levels), again by 2020. But, greater
efficiencies and mandated global warming gas reductions, by themselves, are
not enough to adequately address the unprecedented crisis of global warming
and global peak oil and gas production. Looking to the future, governments will
need to explore new energy paths and establish new economic models with the
goal of achieving as close to zero carbon emissions as possible.
The Nuclear Economy
Nuclear Fission
• The survey sets out that total identified uranium resources have grown by 12.5% since 2008
and are sufficient for over 100 years of supply based on current requirements.
• Nuclear power generated 2385 TWh in 2011.
• The nuclear share of total global electricity production reached its peak of 17% in the late
1980s, but since then it has been falling and reached 13.5% in 2012.
Nuclear Fusion
• Nuclear Fusion is the next barrier - the conquest of Hydrogen technology, the science which is
required to support both a Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion Economy (to free up the general
population from energy dependency). Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained
maintenance of the enormous pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core. This
is a most challenging technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to
explore and evaluate its extraordinary opportunities. To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires
creating the same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun.
This means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which
take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions
extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and fusion
of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a single
Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.
The Carbon Economy
Oil
• Global crude oil reserves today are almost 25% larger than in 1993 and production has
gone up by 20%.
• The oil reserves in the world could be quadrupled if unconventional resources such as oil
shale, oil sands, extra heavy oil, and natural bitumen are taken into account.
• The World Energy Congress, 2013 Report sets out a global oil reserves-to-production
(R/P) ratio of 56 years with total available reserves estimated at 223 billion tonnes.
Coal
• Coal is still the global primary energy source (40%) for electricity production. Leading
economies are still powered by coal, with 79% of electricity in China and 40% in the USA
generated by coal-fired plants, respectively.
• The World Energy Congress, 2013 Report sets out a global coal reserves-to-production
ratio in excess of 100 years with total available reserves estimated at 891 billion tonnes.
Natural Gas
• Natural gas is expected to continue to grow, thanks to significant increases in the
reassessment of reserves and the growing contribution of unconventional gas, such as
shale gas.
• The report sets out a global reserves-to-production ratio for natural gas at 55 years with
total reserves estimated at 209 trillion cubic metres.
The Renewable Economy
Bio-energy
• Between 1990 and 2010 bio-energy supply increased from 38 to 52 EJ.
• The report showcases the potential for energy efficiency to decrease the use of
resources and achieve huge savings along the entire energy value chain. Examples
include:
• Buildings account for almost 40% of global consumption and the report notes potential
energy savings in buildings could reach between 20 and 40%.
• In oil & gas exploration the energy efficiency of the electric system, which today is 20%,
could be increased up to 50%.
• In power generation the average efficiency of power plants is 34% for coal-fired
installations compared with best available technology of 46% for coal and 61% for gas-
fired units.
• The report is the 23rd of the World Energy Council’s resources studies, with the full
report running to nearly 600 pages. The first report was published in 1933 and was
entitled Statistical Year Book of World Energy, which later became the WEC Survey of
Energy Resources. The series is regarded worldwide as the premier source of
information on global energy resources and is made available free of charge via the
World Energy Council’s website:www.worldenergy.org/publications.
The Renewable Economy
Hydropower
• Hydropower generated 2767 TWh in 2011.
• During 2012, an estimated 27 to 30 GW of new hydropower and 2 to 3 GW of pumped
storage capacity was commissioned.
• Since the WEC’s 2010 resources survey the total amount of electricity produced by
hydropower has dropped by 14%, in part due to water shortages.
Wind
• Wind generated 377 TWh in 2011 from 240,000 MW of installed capacity.
• Total amount of electricity generated by wind in 2011 was roughly equal to Australia’s
annual electricity consumption.
• China, with about 62 GW, has the world’s highest installed capacity of wind energy, while
Denmark, with over 3 GW, has the highest level per capita.
Solar PV
• The global total of installed capacity for solar PV stood at 68,850 MW in 2011 with an
energy production around 70 TWh.
• Between 2008 and 2011 solar PV capacity increased in the USA from 1168 to 5171 MW,
in Germany from 5877 to 25,039 MW, and in Italy from 430 MW to 13,000 MW.
Future Research Problem: -
Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods
Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
• Weaver (Complexity Theory) • Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
• Gleick and Lorenzo (Chaos Theory) • Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
The Butterfly Effect
• Weather forecasting and prediction is an extremely difficult system to model
and understand. Meteorologists can forecast the weather for short periods of
time, a couple days at most - but beyond that predictions are generally very
poor. The most accurate weather prediction is usually “the weather tomorrow
will change only slightly from the conditions that we have experienced today”.
• Edward Lorenz was a mathematician and meteorologist at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology who loved the study of weather – the extremely difficult
problem of weather forecasting and prediction. With the advent of early
computers, Lorenz seized the opportunity to combine mathematics and
meteorology with the latest developments in Computational Theory (Alan
Turing) and Information Theory (Gordon Shannon). Lorenz set out to construct
a mathematical model of the weather – a set of differential equations that
represented changes in air temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction,
etc. in weather “cells” – columns of air referenced located by an area of sea or
land located above a map grid square.
Future Research Problem: - Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods
• Complex Systems and Chaos Theory •
• The Butterfly Effect• Weather Forecasting & prediction is an extremely difficult system to model and understand
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
• The Navier-Stokes Equation • The Navier-Stokes equation states that: - p (Dv/Dt) = - D.p + D.T + f
Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
The Butterfly Effect
• Initially, Lorenz created a weather model consisting of a set of 12 differential
(non-linear) equations. Non-linear (differential) equations are difficult to resolve –
as there are usually more than one correct solution for each set of variables –
whereas Linear equations are usually resolved into a single correct solution for
each set of variables. Nonlinear systems are therefore central to chaos theory –
as they can often exhibit the capacity for complex and chaotic behaviour – a
stochastic pattern.
• Extremes in weather follow a similar stochastic pattern. Everyone is familiar with
the expression "When it rains, it pours”..... Lorenz's initial weather model, which
involved a set of 12 nonlinear differential equations, exhibited chaotic behaviour,.
Lorenz decided to look for complex behaviour in an even simpler set of
equations, and was led to the phenomenon of rolling fluid convection. The
physical model is simple - a fluid placed in a solid rectangular box with a heated
at the bottom and cooled at the top - will attempt to re-distribute that heat
throughout the fluid mass by convection (movement of the fluid).
The Butterfly Effect
• Lorenz's initial weather model, which involved a set of 12 nonlinear differential
equations, exhibited chaotic behaviour. The physical model is simple: place a
fluid (gas or liquid) in a solid rectangular box and apply a heat source at the
base. Lorenz decided to look for complex behaviour in an even simpler set of
equations, and was led to the phenomenon of rolling fluid convection.
• Finally, Lorenz stripped the weather model down to a fairly crude but useable
system consisting of several simplified fluid dynamics equations (called the
Navier-Stokes equations) and from the original twelve nonlinear equations
ended up with a simplified set of just three nonlinear equations: -
• Where P is the Pr and tl number representing the ratio of the fluid viscosity to
its thermal conductivity, R represents the difference in temperature between
the top and bottom of the system, and B is the ratio of the width to height of
the box used to hold the system. The values Lorenz used are P = 10, R = 28,
B = 8/3.
The Butterfly Effect
• On a particular day in the winter of 1961, Lorenz wanted to re-examine a sequence of data
coming from his model. Instead of restarting the entire run, he decided to save time and restart
the run from somewhere in the middle. Using data printouts, he entered the conditions at
some point near the middle of the previous run, and re-started the model calculation. What he
found was very unusual and unexpected. The data from the second run should have exactly
matched the data from the first run. While they matched at first, the runs eventually began to
diverge dramatically — the second run losing all resemblance to the first within a few "model"
months. A sample of the data from his two runs in shown overlaid below: -
Source: - http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/butterfly.html
The Butterfly Effect
• At first Lorenz thought that a vacuum tube had gone bad in his computer, a Royal
McBee — an extremely slow and crude machine by today's standards. After
discovering that there was no malfunction, Lorenz finally found the source of the
problem. To save space, his printouts only showed three digits while the data in the
computer's memory contained six digits. Lorenz had entered the rounded-off data
from the printouts assuming that the difference was inconsequential. For example,
even today temperature is not routinely measured within one part in a thousand.
• Lorenz had entered the rounded-off data from the printouts – assuming that the
insignificant difference was inconsequential. Even today example, temperature is not
routinely measured within one part in a thousand. This led Lorenz to the conclusion
that detailed long-term weather forecasting was doomed. His simple weather model
exhibits the phenomenon known as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions."
This is sometimes referred to as the Butterfly Effect, – that is, “a butterfly flapping
its wings in South America can affect the weather in Central Park.....”
The Butterfly Effect
• Consider the idea of sensitivity to initial conditions. In his weather system
modelling, Prof. Edward Lorentz determined that the tiniest change in an input
variable in computer weather simulations, lead to radical differences in the
outcome over a relatively short time. In exploring the development of weather
systems, with any vanishingly small differences in the initial conditions at the
onset of a chaotic system cycle – minute and imperceptible differences create
slightly different starting points which result in massively different outcomes
between two otherwise identical systems - both operating within the same time
frame.
• This led Lorenz to conclude that the future of detailed long-term weather
forecasting was doomed. His simple model exhibits the phenomenon known
as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions." This is sometimes referred to
as the Butterfly Effect, e.g. a butterfly flapping its wings in South America can
affect the weather in Central Park.
The Butterfly Effect
• The question then arises — why does a set of completely deterministic equations exhibit such chaotic behaviour? Previously, Student Mathematicians and Scientists were often taught that small perturbations in initial conditions only tend to lead to small changes in model behaviour and outcomes This was clearly not the case in Lorenz's Weather Model – where small initial perturbations in temperature lead to massive changes in Weather Model behaviour and outcomes The answer to this lies in the nature of the weather cell model formulae - they were nonlinear equations. Non-linear equations are often difficult to resolve – as there are usually more than one correct solution – whereas Linear equations are usually resolved into a single correct solution
• Lorenz subsequently simplified several fluid dynamics equations (called the Navier-Stokes equations) and from the original twelve nonlinear (quadratic) equations ended up with a simplified set of just three nonlinear (quadratic) equations: -
• The Navier-Stokes equation states that: - p (Dv/Dt) = - D.p + D.T + f
– Where P is the Pr and tl number representing the ratio of the fluid viscosity to its thermal conductivity, R represents the difference in temperature between the top and bottom of the fluid system, and B is the ratio of the width to height of the box used to hold the fluid system. The values Lorenz used are P = 10, R = 28, B = 8/3.
Navier–Stokes equations
• Navier–Stokes equations model the continuous flow of fluids - assuming that the nature
of the fluid being studied is a continuum (that is, the fluid is infinitely divisible and not
composed of discrete particles such as atoms or molecules) - and is moving slowly at
non-relativistic velocities. This is the Generalised form of the Navier-Stokes equation: -
Navier–Stokes equations (general case)
• This equation is often written using the material derivative Dv/Dt, making it more apparent that
this is a statement of Newton's second law: -
• The Navier–Stokes equations forecast fluid velocity - not position. A solution of the Navier–
Stokes equations is called a velocity field or flow field - which is a description of the velocity of
the fluid at a given point in space and time.
Navier–Stokes equations (re-written)
Navier–Stokes equations
Velocity
• Once the velocity field is solved, then all of the other quantities of interest (such as flow
rate or drag force) may be calculated. This is different from that which is normally seem
in classical mechanics, where solutions are typically trajectories of position of a particle or
deflection of a continuum. Studying velocity instead of position makes more sense for a
fluid; however for visualisation purposes one can compute various trajectories.
Nonlinearity
• Navier–Stokes equations are nonlinear partial differential equations in almost every real
situation. In some cases, such as one-dimensional flow and Stokes flow (or creeping
flow), then the quadratic equations may be simplified to linear equations. This property of
nonlinearity makes most real-world problems(such as the weather) difficult or impossible
to solve – and this is the main contributor to the turbulence that the equations model.
• The nonlinearity is due to convective acceleration - an acceleration which is associated
with the change in velocity over position. Hence, any convective flow, whether turbulent
or not, will involve a non-linear. Solution. An example of convective but laminar (non-
turbulent) flow would be the passage of a viscous fluid - for example, laminar airflow over
an aircraft wing , or the boundary flow oil through a small converging nozzle. Such flows,
whether precisely soluble or not - can often be thoroughly studied and understood.
Navier–Stokes equations
Turbulence
• Turbulence is the time dependent chaotic behaviour seen in many fluid flows. It is generally
believed that it is due to the inertia of the fluid as a whole: the culmination of time dependent and
convective acceleration; hence flows where inertial effects are small tend to be laminar
(the Reynolds number quantifies how much the flow is affected by inertia). It is believed, though
not known with certainty, that the Navier–Stokes equations describe turbulence properly.
• The numerical solution of the Navier–Stokes equations for turbulent flow is extremely difficult,
and due to the significantly different mixing-length scales that are involved in turbulent flow, the
stable solution of this requires such a fine mesh resolution that the computational time becomes
significantly infeasible for calculation (see Direct numerical simulation). Attempts to solve
turbulent flow using a laminar solver typically result in a time-unsteady solution, which fails to
converge appropriately. To counter this, time-averaged equations such as the Reynolds-
averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS), supplemented with turbulence models, are used in
practical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications when modeling turbulent flows. Some
models include the Spalart-Allmaras, k-ω (k-omega), k-ε (k-epsilon), and SST models which add
a variety of additional equations to bring closure to the RANS equations. Another technique for
solving numerically the Navier–Stokes equation is the Large eddy simulation (LES). This
approach is computationally more expensive than the RANS method (in time and computer
memory), but produces better results since the larger turbulent scales are explicitly resolved.
Navier–Stokes equations
Application
• Navier–Stokes equations model the flow of continuous fluids - and assume that the fluid
under study is a continuum (that is, it is infinitely divisible and not composed of discrete
particles such as atoms or molecules) – and also, is not moving at relativistic velocities.
• Together with supplemental equations (for example, conservation of mass) and under well
formulated boundary conditions, the Navier–Stokes equations seem to model fluid motion
accurately. Even turbulent flows seem (on average) to agree with real world observations.
At very small scales or under extreme conditions - such as fluid dynamics in nano-tubes –
as real fluids made out of discrete molecules, experimental observations will produce
different results from the “ideal” flow of continuous fluids which are modelled by Navier–
Stokes equations. Depending on the Knudsen number of the fluid flow problem, statistical
mechanics or possibly even molecular dynamics may be a more appropriate approach.
• Another limitation is simply the complicated nature of the equations. Well tested and
understood formulations exist for common fluid families, but the application of the Navier–
Stokes equations to less common families tends to result in very complicated formulations
which are a current area of research. For this reason, these equations are usually written
for Newtonian fluids. Studying such fluids is "simple" because viscosity models end up
being linear; however, truly general models for the flow of other kinds of fluids, for example
in networks (such as blood flowing in a vascular system) as of 2013 - do not yet exist.
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment
• Global Massive Change Events – many Human Activity Cycles, such as Business, Social,
Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic (Archaeology) Human Activity Waves - may be
compatible with, and map onto – one or more Natural Cycles. In their starkest warning yet,
following nearly seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world begins to moderate
greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross the critical threshold of 2C by the end of
this century. That would have serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and
changes to rainfall - meaning that dry regions receive much less rain and wet areas much more.
Possible Natural Mechanisms for driving Human Activity Cycles • Cosmic Processes – ultra long-term Astronomic changes (e.g. Inter- / Intra-gallactic and solar system events)
• Geological Processes – very long-term global change e.g. Orogonies (Mountain Building), Volcanic Activity
• Biological Processes – Evolution and Carbon, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Sulphur Cycles (terra-forming effects)
• Solar Forcing – long-term periodic change in Insolation (solar radiation) due to Milankovitch Orbital Cycles
• Oceanic Forcing – ocean currents and climate systems– oscillation, temperature, salinity – Bond Cycles
• Atmospheric Forcing – rapid change in air temperature and Ice Mass / Melt-water Cycles – Heinrich Events
• Human Processes – Human Activity (agriculture, industrialisation) and impact on Global Climate / Ecosystems
• Atomic / Sub-atomic Processes – Particle Physics, Quantum Mechanics, Wave Mechanics and String Theory
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
Climate Change and Environmental Futures
• Increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events – El Nino and La Nina – combined with rising sea levels and natural disasters - has already begun to threaten our low-lying coastal cities (New Orleans, Brisbane, Fucoshida, Bangkok), A combination of rising sea levels, storm surges of increased intensity and duration, tsunamis and flash floods – will flood land up to 90 km into the interior from the present coast much more frequently by 2040 – drowning many major cities along with much of our most productive agricultural land – washing away homes and soil in the process. Human Population Drift and Urbanisation causes the destruction of arable land – as it is consumed by urban settlers and property speculators to build more cities.
By 2050 we may well have achieved the end of the World as we know it.....
• .....Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation –
– Human Activity is the major factor in climate change environmental and ecological degradation.
– Environment – man now moves more rock and earth than do all natural geological processes.
– Ecology – global extinction rate is currently greater than that of the PTB extinction event
– Natural Resources – Food, Energy and Water (FEW) Crisis – global shortage, natural resources
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
• Current trends in Human Population Growth are unsustainable – today we are already beginning
to run out of Food, Energy and Water (FEW) – a crisis which will first limit, then reverse human
population growth. Ecological stability and sustainability may be preserved – but only at the
expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations. Most natural resources –
arable land, fertilisers, food, energy sources, even clean water – begin to run out by about 2040.
Worst-case Extrapolated Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis scenarios indicate a
dramatic collapse in population from about 2040 onwards - with numbers falling to well below the
1bn mark and probably recovering and stabilising out at around 1bn by the end of the century.
• Socio-Anthropologists, Economists and Demographic / Ethnographic Geographers – based on
the principles of Thomas Malthus and Pierre Verhulst – have updated population growth limit
curve extrapolations, which tend to converge towards a Global Population Collapse scenario by
the middle of this century. There are over 7bn Humans on the Earth today – rising from 1.6bn at
the turn of the 20th century. Over one-half of that human population is now urbanised, living in
cities – most of which are built either on the coast or alongside inland waterways. By 2050,
upwards of two-thirds of the 8-9bn human population will now be dwelling in cities – built mostly
near the coast, estuaries and deltas, alongside rivers, lakes and inland waterways. Rising sea
levels and intensifying weather systems will periodically create storm surges and flash floods
which will inundate land as far as 90 km from the present coast into the interior – drowning those
cities, killing and carrying off their inhabitants and washing away valuable real-estate and
infrastructure systems – along with the most productive coastal and river valley agricultural land.
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
• For most of human existence our ancestors have led precarious lives as scavengers, hunters, and
gatherers, living in communities ravaged by nature, predation, famine and disease. There were fewer
than 10 million human beings on Earth at any one time from the Neolithic period right up until the
Middle Ages. Today, many of our cities have more than 10 million inhabitants each - as global human
populations continue to grow unchecked. The total global human population stands today at 7 billion
- with as many as two or three billion more people arriving on the planet by 2050.
• Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic (Archaeology)
Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto - one or more of the Natural Cycles. Current trends
in Human Population Growth are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food,
Energy and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population growth. Over the long
term, ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at the expense of the
continued, unchecked growth of human populations. There are eight major episodic threats to
Human Society, which are “Chill”, “Grill”, “Ill”, “Kill”, “Nil”, “Spill”, “Thrill” and “Till” Moments: -
• “Chill Moments” – periods of rapid cooling, e.g. Ice Age Glaciations (Pluvial Periods) causing
depopulation of early hominids in Northern Europe in Pleistocene Eolithic times, abandonment of the
high fells, moors and highlands in Britain during the Iron Age Climate Anomaly, and impact of the
medieval “mini Ice Age” on Danish settlers in Greenland. These events may be linked to cyclic
oscillations in water conditions in the North Atlantic – causing periodic fluctuations or even failure of
the Gulf Stream current – which in turn interrupts the flow of warm water (and moist air) from the
Caribbean to the North Atlantic, vital in maintaining temperate weather systems in Western Europe.
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
• “Grill Moments” - rapidly rising temperatures such as found in Ice Age Inter-Glacial episodes (Inter-
pluvial Periods) – causing environmental and ecological change under heat stress and drought –
precipitating the disappearance of the Neanderthal, Solutrean and Clovis cultures, drying, deforestation
and desertification driving the migration of the Anastasia in SW America along with desertification
drifting south and impacting on Sub-Saharan cultures today.
• “Ill Moments” - Contact with an foreign civilization or alien population and their parasitic bio-cloud -
carrying contagious diseases, which in pandemics to which the native population under exposure has
little or no immunity. Examples are the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in Europe from Asia,
Spanish Explorers sailing up the Amazon and spreading Smallpox to Amazonian Basin Indians from the
Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture and Columbian Sailors returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from
the New World, the Spanish Flu Pandemic carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great
War – infecting 40% and killing more people than did all the military action during the whole of WWI.
• “Kill Moments” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a foreign civilization or alien population with
superior technology – destruction of mega-fauna, Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe,
William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish conquistadores meet Aztecs and
Amazonian Indians in Central and South America, Cowboys v. Indians in the plains of North America…..
• “Nil Moments” – Singularity or Hyperspace Events where the Earth and Solar System are swallowed
up by a rogue Black Hole – or the dimensional fabric of the whole Universe is ripped apart when two
Membranes (Universes) collide in hyperspace and one dimension set is subsumed into the other – they
could then merge into a large multi-dimensional Membrane – or split up into two new Membranes?....
History and Future of Climate and Environmental Change
• “Spill Moments” - Local or Regional Natural Disasters e.g. Andesitic volcanic eruption at subduction
tectonic plate margins - Vesuvius eruption and pyroclastic cloud destroying the Roman cities of
Herculaneum and Pompeii, Volcanic eruption / collapse causing Landslides and Tsunamis - Stromboli
eruption / collapse weakening the Minoan Civilisation on Crete, Krakatau eruption causing Indonesian
Tsunamis, ocean-floor sediment slips causing in recent years the recent Pacific and Indian Oceanic, and
Japanese Tsunamis – resulting in widespread coastal flooding, inundation & destruction.
• “Thrill Moments” - Continental or Global Natural Disasters – Extinction-level Events (ELE) such as the
Deccan and Siberian Traps Basaltic Flood Volcanicity, Asteroid and Meteorite Impacts, Gamma-ray
Bursts from nearby collapsing stars dying and going Supernova – scenarios which have all variously
contributed towards the late Pre-Cambrian “Frozen Globe”, Permian-Triassic and Cretaceous-Tertiary
boundary global mass extinction events,,,,,”
• “Till Moments” - Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental support
systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and
Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic environmental damage and
ecological disasters - resulting in climatic change – for the Easter Island culture, the de-population of
upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat from
northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances and subsequent replacement
of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland
Estates – up to today with the current de-forestation by semi-nomadic pastoralists and resulting process
of desertification drifting south, destroying marginal pastoral land in sub-Saharan Africa.....
History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change
• When we look at possible, probable and likely future human outcomes, we often extrapolate Malthus / Verhulse population growth curves / economic limiting factors / patterns and trends from previous human civilisations – which in the past have all ended in collapse scenarios where human cultures and societies have emerged, developed, experienced rapid growth, plateaued, declined – and have finally failed, died out or just simply disappeared from the historic record: -
• Many complex human societies (Solutrean, Clovis, Mayan, Aztec, Khmer and Easter Island) have been displaced, over-run, lost or disappeared, often as a result of a catastrophic event – a natural disaster, climate change, disease, exposure to a culture with superior technology – or simply as a consequence of their own society’s growth-associated impacts driving destruction of ecological and environmental support systems – dangers that we all very much still face today.
Inca (Peru)
Aztecs (Mexico)
Olmec Civilisation
Mayan Civilisation
Muisca and Tairona Cultures
Pueblo Indians (Anastasia) – South-Western USA
Amazonian Indians - Dark Earth (Terra Prate) Culture
Indus Valley (Ayrian) Civilisation
Khmer Civilisation (Amkor)
Easter Islanders
Greenland Vikings (Medieval “mini Ice Age”)
Eocene - early hominids
Neanderthals
Solutrean / Clovis Cultures
Scythes
Parthians
Mesopotamians
Babylonians
Assyrians
Minoan Civilisation
Phoenicians
Etruscans
Human Activity Shock Waves
1. Stone – Tools for hunting, crafting artefacts and making fire
2. Fire – Combustion for warmth, cooking and for managing the environment
3. Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements
4. Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation
5. Ship Building – Communication, Culture ,Trade
6. Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare
7. Gun-powder – Global Imperialism, Colonisation
8. Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism
9. Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings
10. Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport
11. Industrialisation – Mills, Factories, Foundries
12. Transport – Canals, Railways and Roads
13. Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives, Petrochemicals and and Agrochemicals
14. Electricity – Generation and Distribution
15. Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency
16. Aviation – Powered Flight – Airships, Aeroplanes
17. Physics – Relativity Theory, Quantum Mechanics
18. Nuclear Fission – Abundant Energy & Cold War
19. Electronics – Television, Radio and Radar
20. Jet Propulsion – Global Travel and Tourism
21. Global Markets – Globalisation and Urbanisation
22. Aerospace – Rockets, Satellites, GPS, Space Technology and Inter-planetary Exploration
23. Digital Communications – Communication Age -Computers, Telecommunications and the Internet
24. Smart Devices / Smart Apps – Information Age
25. Smart Cities of the Future – The Smart Grid – Pervasive Smart Devices - The Internet of Things
26. The Energy Revolution – The Solar Age – Renewable Energy and Sustainable Societies
27. Hydrogen Economy – The Hydrogen Age – fuel cells, inter-planetary and deep space exploration
28. Nuclear Fusion – The Fusion Age – Unlimited Energy - Inter-planetary Human Settlements
29. Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar Cities and Galactic Urbanisation
“Kill Moments” – Major Natural and Human Activity catastrophes – War, Famine, Disease, Natural Disasters
“Culture Moments” – Major Human Activity achievements - Technology Development, Culture and History
Industrial Cycles – the phases of evolution for any given industry at a specific location / time (variable)
Technology Shock Waves – Stone, Agriculture, Bronze, Iron, Steam, Digital and Information Ages: -
Technology Shock Waves Type Force Technology Shock Wave Event
1 Technology
Shock Waves
Technology
Innovation
Stone – Tools for Hunting, Crafting Artefacts and Making Fire
Fire – Combustion - Warmth, Cooking, changing the Environment
Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements
Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation
Ship Building – Communication, Culture and Trade
Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare
Gun-powder – Global Imperialism and Colonisation
Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism
Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings
Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport
Industrialisation – Mills, Factories and Foundries
Transport – Canals, Railways and Roads
Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives and Agrochemicals
Electricity – Generation and Distribution
Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency
Physics – Relativity Theory and Quantum Mechanics
Nuclear Fission – Abundant Energy and the Cold War
Electronics – Satellites and Space Technology
Digital Communications – The Information Age
Global Markets – Globalisation and Urbanisation
Smart Cities of the Future – The Solar Age – Renewable Energy
Nuclear Fusion– The Hydrogen Age - Inter-planetary Settlements
Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar Cities
Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Human Impact Scenarios
Type Force Random
Event
Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
1 Oil-Price
Shock
Market
forces
Oil and gas
demand grows
beyond supply
Oil and Gas
Price inflation
2 Money
Supply Shock
Market
forces
Cash demand
grows beyond
money supply
Money Supply
shrinks, high
Interest rates
3 Sovereign
State Default
Market
forces
Public Debt
exceeds limits
Interest rates
rapidly rise
State cannot
raise Loans
State cannot
repay Loans
Sovereign Loan
Default Crisis
4 Food Crisis Natural +
Market
forces
Food demand
grows beyond
food supply
Food Price
inflation
Food
shortage -
hunger
Food crisis –
hunger and
illness
Famine – hunger,
illness, starvation
and death
5 Energy Crisis Natural +
Market
forces
Energy
demand grows
beyond supply
Energy Price
inflation
Energy
shortage
Energy crisis Energy Failure –
supply interruption
brown / black out
6 Water Crisis Natural
forces +
Human
Impact
Climate
Change
Rainfall
increases in
wet areas
High tide
with severe
storm cause
Sea / River
levels to rise
Coastal cities
and farmland
inundated by
Storm and
Tidal Surges
Flooding - Coast,
Deltas, Estuaries
and River Valleys
are submerged up
to 90km inland
7 Water Crisis Natural
forces +
Human
Impact
Climate
Change
Rainfall
decreases in
dry areas
Water
shortfall –
wells dry out
& crops fail.
Water crisis –
rivers no
longer reach
the sea
Drought –
Famine, Disease
(typhoid, cholera
and dysentery)
Fiscal Shock Waves
Type Force Fiscal Black Swan Event
1 Oil-Price
Shock
Market
forces
Cyclic Economic downturns and the global recessions that followed have
been linked with Oil price shocks since the 1970s. In the 1980s spurred on
by these events, Economists analysed the relationship between the price of
oil and industrial performance in a number of econometric studies, finding a
positive correlation in the US and other industrial countries between rising oil
prices and falling industrial output. The Oil Price shock of 2008 (oil prices
rose to well over $100 / barrel) had a reduced impact on the world economy.
2 Money
Supply
Shock
Market
forces
The Money Supply Shock Event of 2008 led to the “Credit Crunch” Black
Swan Event. Fiscal Models of the demand and supply of money are either
inconsistent with the contemporary adjustment of the price level to expected
changes in the nominal money supply - or imply implausible fluctuations in
interest rates in response to unexpected changes in the nominal money
supply. A “shock-absorber” model of money demand and supply in which
money supply shocks affect the synchronisation of purchases and sales of
assets - creates a temporary desire to hold more or less liquidity (money
reserves) than would otherwise be the case. Estimated values for Shock-
absorber model variables improve the short-run money demand functions.
3 Sovereign
Sate Debt
Default
Market
forces
Whilst Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain – even the USA –
might be on the brink of defaulting on their sovereign loan repayments –
causing global markets to plunge and economies to decelerate – historically
there’s nothing particularly new or unusual about this type of financial crisis.
Human Activity Cycles
Type Force Fiscal Cycles
1 Short Period
Human
Activity
Waves
Market
Forces
SHORT PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES
Seasonal Activities – Diurnal to Annual (1 day to 1 year)
– Farming, Forestry and Fishing
Price Curves – short-term, variable Market Trends
– Trading and Fiscal Cycles
2 Medium
Period Human
Activity
Waves
Market
Forces
MEDIUM PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES – Joseph Schumpter Economic Waves
Kitchin inventory cycle of 3–5 years (after Joseph Kitchin);
Juglar fixed investment cycle of 7–11 years (Clement Juglar - as 'the business cycle’);
Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15–25 years (after Simon Kuznets);
Generation Wave – 20-25 years (four or five per Innovation Wave and Saeculum)
Innovation Wave – Major Scientific, Technology, Industrial Cycles and Waves @ 80 yr
Sub-Innovation Waves – Minor Technology Innovation Cycles @ 40 years
(2 x Kuznets Waves ?)
Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45–60 years (after Nikolai Kondratiev)
Saeculum or Century Wave– Major Geo-political rivalry and conflict waves @ 100 years
Sub-Century Waves – Minor Arms Race Cycles @ 50 years
(1 x Kondratiev long technological wave ?)
3 Long Period
Human
Activity
Waves
Market
Forces
LONG PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES
Kill Moments – Major Human Activity threats – War, Famine, Disease, Natural Disasters
Culture Moments – Major Human Activity achievements – Science, Technology, Culture
Industrial Cycles – Evolution of any given industry at a specific location/time (variable)
Technology Shock Waves – Stone, Agriculture, Bronze, Iron, Steam, Information Ages
Human Activity - Impact on the Environment
• The global shortage of Food, Energy and Water – the FEW Crisis
FEW Crisis
At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..
• FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW - Food, Energy,
Water) and increased competition from a growing population to obtain those scarce resources
begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population levels will continue
expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings by the middle of this century –
and then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion – slowly recovering and stabilising out
again at a sustainable population of about 1 billion human beings by the end of the century.
• The decline in quality and quantity of fresh water, combined with increased competition
among resource-intensive systems, such as food and energy production, is resulting in a
water supply crisis. The 2013 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report identified that the
water supply crisis is one of the top five risks in both likelihood of occurrence and severity of
impact on society over the next 10 years. The risks “underscore the need for technological
innovation to transform the way that we treat, distribute, use, recover, clean and reuse water
toward a differential, distributed and localised water treatment and reuse paradigm (i.e., treat
water and wastewater locally only to the required level dictated by the next intended use).”
• Estimates by the United Nations suggest that by 2050 the global population will increase to 9
billion, 50% greater than the population in 2010 (Figure 1), and that by 2025 nearly half of the
world’s population will be living in megacities – which may not necessarily be located in areas
where there is a sustainable, renewable or even a reliable water supply.....
FEW Crisis
Water Crisis
• Water is not simply an environmental issue – competition for scare resources such as water has the capacity to create risks and opportunities that can impact companies, investors, governments and entire geo-economic systems. Further proof of this point came from the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the water supply crisis was ranked as one of the most likely and highest impact risks facing the world. In order to thrive sustainably, companies, investors, and governments need a wider and deeper understanding of where and how water risks are emerging worldwide.
• The World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct water risk mapping tool provides unprecedented insight into the complexities of water risk. Aqueduct’s global water risk maps are the product of three years of indicator development, data collection, and risk modelling. They bring together data on twelve different indicators of water risk – everything from water stress to drought to access to clean drinking water.
• Access to a free online tool lets users from governments, NGOs, companies, investors, and beyond combine the twelve indicators together using preset or customized weights to create a global water risk map that is tailored to their specific concerns. Aqueduct is already being used by companies ranging from McDonald’s to Goldman Sachs, as well as the National Intelligence Council and academics and governments worldwide.
Water Crisis
The Food Energy and Water (FEW) Crisis
FEW Crisis
• The food inflation index in India rose 11.43% in the year to November 2013. Food
Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Food Shortage (Strong
Signal), which is often followed by a Food Crisis (Wild Card) and finally a Famine
(Black Swan Event) occurs.
• The fuel price index climbed 14.70% during the same period. The food price index
and fuel inflation stood at 10.60% and 15.17%, respectively in the previous month,
October. The primary articles price index rose was up 11.75%, compared with an
annual rise of 11.18%.
• Merchants – middlemen who loan farmers money to buy seed and sow crops, which is
secured against the following years harvest – begin stockpiling produce (onions, palm
oil, spices, rice) and food hoarding in anticipation of higher future prices – causing
food shortages in towns and cities and so driving up food prices (food inflation).
• Large global Agronomy corporations distort local food demand and supply by dumping
imported crops at below the price of production in a food glut (e.g. Importing bananas
to producing countries), or favouring export markets over local markets during a food
shortage (e.g. exporting basmati rice from India to higher price markets in the west).
FEW Crisis
• Most economists agree that the Indian government has little room for manoeuvre – they
understand that the government has been unable to address pressure points in the food
supply chain, such as failures in food production, food hoarding and stockpiling by the food
merchants who buy produce directly from farmers, as well as logistics bottlenecks in food
distribution and supply further along the food chain. These factors all contribute towards
an increasing shortage of food reaching urban markets – and in turn drive food inflation.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.5
percent at the end of November 2013. The central bank has raised its key benchmark
rates 12 times in the last 18 months – causing economic growth in India to slow down and
stall.
• Market analysts were earlier supportive of this fiscal stance to some extent - but over
recent time, they have become somewhat frustrated with the early inflexibility and later
rigidity of the RBI and now market sentiment greets the raising of interest rates with
dismay – as it has been largely ineffective in tackling inflation.
• The RBI is expecting the annual inflation to fall to 7 percent by March and assures
analysts that further rate hikes will not be made if the inflation moderates as per
estimations the central
FEW Crisis
Type Force Fiscal Black Swan Event
1 Food Crisis Natural
forces +
Market
forces
Food Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Food
Shortage (Strong Signal), which is often followed by a Food Crisis (Wild Card)
and then ultimately a Famine (Black Swan Event) arrives. Pressure points in
the food supply chain include failures in food production, food hoarding and
stockpiling by the food merchants who buy produce directly from farmers, and
logistics bottlenecks in food distribution and supply further along the food chain
by agronomy conglomerates. These factors contribute towards an increasing
shortage of food reaching urban markets – and so in turn drives food inflation.
2 Energy
Crisis
Natural
forces +
Market
forces
Energy Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Energy
Shortage (Strong Signal), which is often followed by a Energy Crisis (Wild
Card) and finally a collapse in Energy Supply (Black Swan Event). Pressure
points in the energy supply chain include Government intervention in Energy
Markets – energy policy, taxation, over regulation and failure to plan for
succession in energy production and supply. In the UK, demand exceeds
supply by 10% - the balance being imported from France. Closure of Nuclear
and Coal-fired power stations without adequate replacement means that from
2015-2025 the total UK energy shortfall will rise rapidly to between 20-30%
3 Water Crisis Natural
forces +
Market
forces
Global warming is likely to cross the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this
century. That would have serious consequences, including sea level rises,
heat-waves and changes to rainfall - meaning that dry regions get less and wet
areas receive more rain. More rivers will run dry before reaching the ocean.
Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring Processes
• Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring is a systematic search and examination of global internet content – “BIG DATA” – information which is gathered, processed and used to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities in the Physical World - allowing for the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into in the policy making process - as well as improved preparation for contingency planning and disaster response.
• Environment Scanning is used as an overall term for analysing the future of the Physical World – ranging from extra-terrestrial threats to the Climate, the Environment and Ecological sub-systems - considering how emerging patterns and trends might potentially affect current policy and practice. This helps policy makers in government to take a longer-term strategic approach, and makes present policy more resilient to future uncertainty. In developing a Global Risk Management policy, Environment Scanning can help policy makers to develop new insights and to think differently about “outside of the box” solutions to climate, environmental and ecological threats – and opportunities.
• In contingency planning and disaster response, Environment Scanning helps to manage risk by discovering and planning ahead for the emergence of unlikely, but potentially high impact events. There are a range of possible methodological approaches, such as developing alternative future scenarios.
Environmental Shock Waves
Environmental Shock Waves
Cat Event Group Force Environmental Shock Waves
A Natural
Disasters &
Catastrophe
Natural
Forces
Natural disasters occur when extreme magnitude events of stochastic
natural processes cause severe damage to human society. "Catastrophe" is
used about an extreme disaster, although originally both referred only to
extreme events (disaster is from the Latin, catastrophe from Ancient Greek).
Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and
Pre-historic (Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto -
one or more Natural Cycles. Current trends in Human Population Growth
are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy
and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population
growth. Ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at
the expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations.
B Global
Massive
Change
Events
Human
Activity
Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment - Global
Massive Change Events. In their starkest warning yet, following nearly
seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world
begins to moderate greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross
the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this century. That would have
serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and changes to
rainfall - meaning already dry regions get less and wet areas receive more.
Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Extinction Level Scenarios
Event Type Force Random Event Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
1 Hyperspace
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
Membranes
collide in
Hyperspace
(none – event
unfolds at the
speed of light)
(none –
speed of
light event)
(none – event
unfolds at the
speed of light)
The end of
the Universe
2 Singularity
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
Black Hole
appears in the
Solar System
(none – event
unfolds at the
speed of light)
(none –
speed of
light event)
(none – event
unfolds at the
speed of light)
The end of
the Solar
System
3 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Disease
Contact with the
bio-cloud
of an Alien host
People start
collapsing in
the street
Global
Pandemic
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
disease
victims
Disease –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
4 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Predation
Contact with an
Alien force
People are
being predated
in the street
Global
Conflict
event
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
attack victims
Attack –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
5 Global
Warfare
Human
Conflict /
WMD
Exposure to
Weapons of Mass
Destruction
People start
collapsing in
the street
Global
Conflict
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
attack victims
Attack –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Extinction Level Scenarios
Event
Type
Force Random
Event
Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
6 Coronal
Mass
Ejection
Event
Solar
Nuclear
Fusion
Coronal Mass
Ejection event
from the Sun
Coronal flare
detected by
Astronomers
Sky turns
violet with
blue/green
Aurora
Ozone layer
destroyed and
solar radiation
floods Earth
Radiation –
Biohazard -
lethal levels of
solar radiation
7 Electro-
magnetic
Event
Earths
Magnetic
Force
Weakening
and Reversal
of the Earths
magnetic field
Compasses no
longer point to
magnetic North
Sky turns
violet with
blue/green
Aurora
Magnetic field
destroyed and
solar radiation
floods Earth
Radiation –
Biohazard -
lethal levels of
solar radiation
8 Bio-tech
Disaster
Event
Nano-
Robotics
Nano-robots
engineered to
de-construct
escape from
the laboratory
Nano-robots
begin to de-
construct the
Biosphere and
Eco-systems
Global
Famine
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
famine victims
Eco-system
collapses –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
9 Bio-tech
Disaster
Event
Smart
Robotics
Smart Robots
engineered for
warfare escape
from laboratory
People start
being predated
in the street
Global
Conflict
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
attack victims
Attack –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
10 Bio-tech
Disaster
Event
Viruses
and Germs
Bio-engineered
pathogens
escape from
the laboratory
People start
collapsing in
the street
Global
Pandemic
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
disease victims
Disease –
90-95 % of
Human
Population lost
Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Extinction Level Scenarios
Event
Type
Force Random
Event
Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
11 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Human
Impact on
Eco-
system
Human
Population
exceeds
Malthusian
limits
The toxic by-
products of
Human Activity
destroy the
Environment
Global
Ecology crisis
and Famine
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
poison victims
Eco-system
collapses due
to Poisoning –
90-95 % of the
total Human
Population lost
12 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Food,
Energy
Water
(FEW)
Crisis
Human
Population
exceeds
Malthusian
limits
People are no
longer able to
find enough
Food
Global Food,
Energy Water
(FEW) crisis
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
famine victims
Food runs out
– 90-95 % of
the total Human
Population lost
13 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Food,
Energy
Water
(FEW)
Crisis
Human
Population
exceeds
Malthusian
limits
People are no
longer able to
find enough
Energy - as
cities fail and
are abandoned
Global Food,
Energy Water
(FEW) crisis
declared –
society
collapses
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
famine, poison
and climate
change victims
Energy runs
out – 90-95 %
of the Human
Population lost
14 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Food,
Energy
Water
(FEW)
Crisis
Human
Population
exceeds
Malthusian
limits
People are no
longer able to
find enough
Water
Global Food,
Energy Water
(FEW) crisis
declared
Hospitals and
Mortuaries
inundated by
drought victims
Water runs out
– 90-95 % of
the total Human
Population lost
Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Global Level Scenarios Event
Type
Force Random
Event
Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
15 Impact
Event
Gravity An Asteroid is
nudged out of
the Oort Cloud
A new Comet
is detected by
Astronomers
Earth-impact
trajectory
calculated
Shock wave,
thermal and
debris waves
Comet Impact
event destroys
Earths biosphere
16 Radiation
Event
Gamma
Rays
Supernova -
death of a star
within our local
Star Cluster
A Supernova
is detected by
Astronomers
Sky turns
violet with
blue/green
Aurora
Ozone layer
destroyed and
solar radiation
floods Earth
Radiation –
Biohazard event
- lethal levels of
solar radiation
17 Geo-
thermal
Event
Thermal
Energy
Vulcanicity –
The magma
chamber fills
up with lava
Ground level
elevation is
detected by
Geophysicists
Earthquakes
recorded as
the magma
chamber fills
Shock wave,
thermal and
debris waves
Volcanic
eruption –
Environment
destroyed
18 Tsunami
Event
Wave
Energy
Earthquake
occurs at mid-
oceanic ridge
Oceanic ridge
earthquake is
detected by
Geophysicists
Tsunami -
retreats from
Coast then
water rushes
inland
Coastal cities
and farmland
inundated by
Tsunami surge
to 90km inland
Flooding -
Coast, Deltas,
Estuaries & River
Valleys
submerged
Natural Cycles and Human Activity
Event
Type
Force Random
Event
Weak
Signal
Strong
Signal
Wild card Black Swan
19 Climate
Change
Solar
Forcing
Milankovich
Orbital Cycles
– Insolation
Solar Cycles
Gradual rise or
fall in average
temperature /
global climate
Environment
warms up and
dries / chills
out & freezes
Extinction-level
event followed
by adaptive
evolution
Ecological
destruction -
global massive
climate change
20 Climate
Change
Oceanic
Forcing
Dansgaard-
Oeschger and
Bond Cycles
(1,470 years)
Cyclic rapid
rise in oceanic
temperature /
global climate
Environment
warms up and
dries / chills
out & freezes
Ecological
event followed
by adaptive
evolution
Ecological
change – global
climate change
21 Climate
Change
Atmospheric
Forcing
Heinrich Event
– Atmospheric
Climate Cycles
Sudden rise in
atmospheric
temperature /
global climate
Environment
warms up and
dries / chills
out & freezes
Ecological
event followed
by adaptive
evolution
Ecological
change – global
climate change
22 Climate
Change
Impact of
Human
Activity
Global Climate
Change – Wet
average rainfall
increases in wet
areas
Combined
effect of Storm
Torrents and
Tidal Surges
are forecast
High tide with
severe storm
cause
Sea / River
levels to rise
Coastal cities
and farmland
inundated by
Storm and
Tidal Surges
Flooding -
Coast, Deltas,
Estuaries and
River Valleys
submerged up
to 90km inland
23 Climate
Change
Impact of
Human
Activity
Global Climate
Change – Dry
average rainfall
decreases in
dry areas
Water
shortage –
wells dry out
and crops fail.
Water
emergency –
rainfall fails or
stops in dry
areas
Water crisis –
rivers no
longer flow into
the sea
Drought –
famine, disease
(typhoid,
cholera and
dysentery)
Weak Signals
Weak Signals
Weak Signals are subtle indicators of novel and emerging ideas, patterns and trends which may give us a glimpse over the current horizon and allow us to peer through the mists of time into the future..... Weak Signals indicate possible future transformations and changes which are happening right now, on or even just beyond the visible horizon, predicating changes in how we do business, what business we do, and the future environment in which we will all live and work. Weak Signals – are messages from the future, subliminal temporal indicators of change (Random Events) coming to meet us from the distant horizon – perhaps indicators of novel and emerging desires, thoughts, ideas, influences, patterns and trends – which may arrive to interact with both current and historic waves, patterns and trends to alter, enhance, impact or effect future outcomes and events, or simply some future change taking place in the current environment in which we all share our life experiences.....
Weak Signals
• Weak Signal is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected message from the future –
faint and subliminal – predicating a forthcoming Random Event. Weak Signal is sign
indicating either a possible future outcome or random event which has not been forecast
or anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had even thought
about it) - but which may indicate some future extreme and far-reaching impact or effect.
1. SURPRISE – Weak Signals are a sudden and unexpected surprise to the observer.
2. SIGNIFICANCE - Weak Signals have significance as a message of a future random event,
predicating renewal or transformation – or signaling a new beginning or fresh chapter.
3. SPEED - Weak Signals appear out of nowhere – then either disperse or become stronger.
4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Weak Signals may indicate a possible future serious challenge or
threat – or reveal to the observer a future novel and unexpected window of opportunity.
5. PARADOX - Weak Signals at their first appearance could or should have been picked up
and recognised – if the Weak Signal is detected against the overwhelming foreground and
background noise - then identified, analysed and correctly accounted for.
Weak Signals
• Weak Signals – are messages, subliminal temporal indicators of ideas, patterns or trends
coming to meet us from the future – or perhaps indicators of novel and emerging, ideas,
influences and messages which may interact with both current and pre-existing patterns
and trends to impact or affect some change taking place in our current environment – even
an early warning or sign of impending random events, disasters or catastrophes which, at
some point, time or place in the Future, may predicate, influence or impact on future
events, objects or processes – to effect subtle, minor or major changes in how we live,
work and play – or even threaten the very existence of the world as we know it today.....
• A Weak Signal is an early warning or sign of change, which typically becomes stronger by
combining with other signals. The significance of a weak future signal is determined by the
nature and content of the message it contains – predicating positive or negative change –
and the scope and objectives of its recipient. Finding Weak Signals typically requires
systematic searching through “Big Data” - internet content, news feeds, data streams,
academic papers and scientific research data sets. A weak future signal requires: i)
support, ii) critical mass, iii) growth of its influence space, and dedicated actors, i.e. ‘the
champions’, in order to become a strong future signal - else Weak Signals evaporate or
disappear into the ether. A Weak Future Signal is usually first recognised by research
pioneers, think tanks or special interest groups (amateur astronomers and comets) – but
very often missed or dismissed by acknowledged “main-stream” subject matter experts.
Weak Signals
• Weak Signals – refer to Weak Future Signals in Horizon and Environment Scanning for any
unforeseen, sudden and extreme Global-level transformation or change Future Events in either
the military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape – some having an inordinately
low probability of occurrence - coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur.
• Weak Signal Types in Horizon Scanning
– Technology Shock Waves
– Supply / Demand Shock Waves
– Political, Economic and Social Waves
– Religion, Culture and Human Identity Waves
– Art, Architecture, Design and Fashion Waves
– Global Conflict – War, Terrorism, and Insecurity Waves
• Weak Signal Types in Environment Scanning
– Natural Disasters and Catastrophes
– Impact of Human Activity on the Environment - Global Massive Change Events
Weak Signals
1. Weak Signals are initially vague in their nature and difficult to interpret at the beginning of a new
Random Event, Weak Signal, Strong Signal, Wild Card and Black Swan Wave Series, so that
their future course and outcomes often remains unclear (ANSOFF, 1990) ;
2. The nature of the early information which can be assimilated from Random Events - Weak
Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events - arrive in an integrated Wave
Series (ANSOFF, 1975) and has little internal structure or reference, so cannot be described or
defined in advance of receiving those very first Weak Signals (MARCH and FELDMAN, 1981),
3. The Stochastic hybrid and cross-functional and Probabilistic nature of Weak Signals limits the
impact, relevance and application of Deterministic prescriptive methods and approaches, and
precludes rigid, inflexible algorithm-based expert systems approaches (GOSHAL and KIM, 1986).
4. In strategic decision making, the uniqueness in the form and function of Weak Signals, Strong
Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events - implies the use of flexible approaches and
solutions based on Probabilistic Methods – including cognitive filtering, bounded rationality,
“fuzzy” logic, approximate reasoning, neural networks and adaptive systems (SIMON, 1983);
5. The random and ethereal nature of the Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and
Monitoring process involves dependence - strange actors, clustering, numerous elements and
complex interactions - and requires very large scale (VLS) computing and “BIG DATA” Analytics
techniques to reliably and accurately discover, identify, classify and interpret Weak Signals.
Weak Signals
6. Neural Networks and Complex / Adaptive / Learning System Models combined with “BIG DATA”
methods are therefore likely to be the most successful and appropriate technology approaches for
executing both Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring studies.
7. A major component of the process of Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and
Monitoring is achieved either by horizon or environmental scanners who capture weak signals
hidden within massive amounts of external raw data, and data scientists using “BIG DATA” content
techniques for data analysis - “washing and mashing” and “racking and stacking”
8. A Weak Future Signal is an early warning of change, which typically becomes stronger by combining
with other signals. The significance of a weak future signal is determined by the objectives of its
recipient, and finding it typically requires systematic searching. A weak future signal requires: i)
support, ii) critical mass, iii) growth of its influence space, and dedicated actors, i.e. ‘the champions’,
in order to become a strong future signal, or to prevent itself from becoming a strong negative signal.
A Weak Future Signal is often recognised by pioneers or special groups - not by acknowledged
subject matter experts
9. The Weak Future Signal Event Types – refer to subliminal indications of future unforeseen,
sudden and extreme Global-level transformation or change. Weak Signal Event Types in either the
military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape - having an inordinately low probability
of occurrence - coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur.
Weak Signals Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
1 Nature Weak Signals are subtle indicators of ideas, patterns or
trends that give us a glimpse into the future – predicating
possible future transformations and changes which are
happening on or even just over the visible horizon, changes
in how we do business, what business we do, and the future
environment in which we will all live and work.
2 Quality
Weak Signals may be novel and surprising from the signal
analyst's vantage point - although many other signal
analyst's may have already, failed to recognise,
misinterpreted or dismissed the same Weak Signals
3 Purpose Weak Signals are used for Horizon Scanning, Tracking
and Monitoring and for Future Analysis and Management
4 Source Weak Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black
Swan Events – are a sequence of waves linked and
integrated in ascending order of magnitude, which have a
common source or origin - either a single Random Event
instance or arising from a linked series of chaotic and
disruptive Random Events – generating Weak Signals from
a Random Event Cluster or Random Event Storm.
Weak Signals Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
5 Wave-form Analytics and “Big Data” Global Internet Content
Wave-form Analytics may be used with “Big Data” to analyse how Random Events propagate through the space-time continuum in a related and integrated series of waves with an ascending order of magnitude and impact – the first wave to arrive is the fastest travelling - Weak Signals - something like a faint echo of a Random Event which may be followed in turn by a ripple (Strong Signals) then possibly by a wave (Wild Card) - which may indicate the unfolding a further increase in magnitude and intensity which finally arrives catastrophically - something like a tsunami (Black Swan Event).
6 Identification Weak Signals are sometimes difficult to track down, receive, tune in, identify, amplify and analyse amid the overwhelming volume of “white noise” from stronger signals and other foreground and background noise sources
7 Principle of Dual Nature (possibility of either an Opportunity or Threat)
Weak Signals may indicate the possibility of either a potential future threat or opportunity to yourself or your organization - or foretell the pending arrival of a future advantage or reversal – a “Wild card” or Black Swan” event
Weak Signals Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
8 Perception Weak Signals are often missed, dismissed or scoffed at by
other Subject Matter Experts
9 Opportunity Weak Signals contain novel and emerging ideas, influences
and messages - therefore they represent an early window of
potential opportunity.
10 Impact Weak Signals arrive, become established, develop, grow
and mature - then peak, plateau decline and collapse – or
interact with current and pre-existing extrapolations,
patterns or trends to transform or change the landscape
11 Receipt / Observation Every Weak Future Signal requires –
1. a Receiver / Observer / Analyst (which could be
automated by deploying “Big Data” Analytics)
2. Subject mater experts, special interest groups etc. and
Empowered Stakeholders to achieve critical
momentum
3. growth of its support, championship and influence space
4. dedicated actors, e.g. “supporters and champions”
Weak Signals
Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
12 Duration Weak signals only last for a brief period: – Transient Signal
1. Weak signals are seen as a sign that lasts for a moment,
but indicate a phenomenon (Random Event) behind it that
lasts longer – there may be a following Strong Signal
2. Weak signals are phenomena that last for a short period of
time (succeeded by strong signals and wild cards?)
Weak signal lasts longer:– it now becomes a Strong Signal
3. A weak signal is a cause for a change in the future
4. A weak signal is itself a change phenomenon
13 Transition phenomenon 1. A weak signal is created as a result of a spontaneous
Random Event phenomenon or Random Event Cluster
2. A weak signal is a sign of a future disruptive changes or
Individual / Local / Regional / Global Transformations
3. A weak signal may be an early indicator - and member of -
an integrated Wave Series
4. The transition phenomenon of a weak signal is that in the
future it will either get stronger (becomes a Strong Signal)
or weaker (attenuate and disappear from view)
Weak Signals
Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
14 Objectivity v. Subjectivity 1. Weak signals exist independently of their receiver.
2. “Weak signals float in the phenomena space and
wait for someone to find them” – automation via
“Big Data” Analytics can address this issue.....
3. A weak signal does not exist without reception /
interpretation by a receiver / observer (which may
mitigated by automated via “Big Data” Analytics)
15 Interpretation The interpretation of a same signal can be different
from the viewpoint of different receivers of the signal.
Human Interpretation adds subjectivity to the signal –
even though it is thought to be objective – “Big Data”
Analytics may be used for the Validation process
16 Signal Strength over Time 1. The weak signal (as an indicator) is strengthening
2. A phenomenon, interpreted as weak signal, is
strengthening – it now becomes a Strong Signal
3. A phenomenon whose status is in question, is
strengthening – it now becomes a Strong Signal
Weak Signals
Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints
17 Roles and Responsibilities –
Receivers /Observers /
Analysts of the weak signal
(who receives, identifies,
observes and classifies)
1. Difficulties in defining the concept of Weak
Signals to Empowered Stakeholders – subject
mater experts, special interest groups, etc. –
explaining how they arrive from a single instance
or linked series of Random Events – or Event
Cluster / Storm
2. Differences in opinion on signal content between
signal Receiver, Observer and Analysts :-
resolved by special interest groups, subject mater
experts
18 Roles and Responsibilities –
Analysts / Interpreters /
Stakeholders in the signal
(who analyses and draws
useful valid conclusions)
1. Who is drawing the conclusions on the cause-
effect relationship? – the Receiver and the
Observer
2. Who is defining the credibility and significance of
weak signal? – the Observer and the Analyst
3. Who is the one that can affect important decisions
concerning the future? – Empowered
Stakeholders
Strong Signals
Strong Signals – represent the first clear and visible presence of a Random Event – the secondary arrival of stronger but slower-travelling waves containing more information of possible, probable and alternative future events – random events, future catastrophes, or indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages
Strong Signals
Strong Signals
• Strong Signal is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected - but very real and apparent
- signal indicating a possible outcome or random event which has not been forecast or
anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had even thought
about it) - but which may have some future extreme and far-reaching impact or effect.
1. SURPRISE – Strong Signals are a complete and unexpected surprise to the observer.
2. SIGNIFICANCE - Strong Signals have a significance as an indicator of change - or as an
signal for renewal or transformation – or signify a new beginning or fresh chapter.
3. SPEED - Strong Signals appear out of nowhere – then either disperse or magnify.
4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Strong Signals may indicate a possible serious challenge or
threat – or reveal to the observer a future novel and unexpected window of opportunity.
5. PARADOX - Strong Signals are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance they
could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available and
detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.
Strong Signals
• Strong Signals – represent the first clear and visible presence of a Random Event – the
secondary arrival of stronger but slower-travelling waves containing more information of
possible, probable and alternative future events – random events, future catastrophes, or
indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages which may interact with
both current and pre-existing patterns and trends to impact or affect some change taking
place in our environment - at some point, time or place in the future – for example, what
future climatic and ecological environment will live , work and play in what political, social
and economic environment will live , work and play in, how we live, work and play, what
business we do, how we do business and who we do Business with......
1. Strong Signals may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they follow their
preceding indicators, prior Weak Signals
2. Strong Signals may contain confirmation about future events – random events,
catastrophes, or indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages.
They therefore present a second potential window of opportunity if the first Weak Signals
in the series were undetected, overlooked or dismissed
3. Strong Signals arrive, become established, develop, grow and mature - then peak,
plateau decline and collapse or interact with current and pre-existing extrapolations,
patterns or trends which act to transform or change the current outlook or landscape.
Strong Signals
Property Different Views and Viewpoints
1 Nature Strong Signals follow Weak Signals – to give a more clear and apparent
indication of ideas, patterns or trends that provide us with a stronger and
more lasting glimpse into the future – predicating probable future
transformations and changes which are happening on or even just over
the visible horizon, changes in how we do business, what business we
do, and the future environment in which we will all live and work.
2 Purpose Strong Signals are used in Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring -
for Strategy Analysis and Strategy Management, Future Analysis and
Future Management
3 Source Weak Signals, Strong Signals (which are second in the sequence), Wild
Cards and Black Swan Events – are a linked sequence of integrated
waves in a timeline and ascending order of magnitude, which have a
common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance – or
arising from a linked series of chaotic and disruptive Random Events –
creating a Random Event Cluster or Random Event Storm.
Strong Signals
Property Different Views and Viewpoints
4 Identification Strong Signals are easier to recognise than Weak Signals,
receive, tune in, identify, amplify and analyse amid the
overwhelming volume of “white noise” from stronger signals and
other foreground and background noise sources
5 Perception Whereas Weak Signals are often missed, dismissed or scoffed at by
other Subject Matter Experts - Strong Signals are more widely
recognised and accepted
6 Opportunity Strong Signals bring confirmation of novel and emerging ideas,
influences and messages - therefore they represent an second
window of potential opportunity.
7 Quality Whereas Weak Signals may be novel and surprising from the signal
analyst's vantage point - Strong Signals are not as easily
dismissed as Weak Signals. Many other signal analyst's may now
confirm and support the content of such Strong Signals
9 Timing Strong Signals may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they
follow their preceding indicators, prior Weak Signals
Wild Cards
Wild Cards
• Wild Card is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected outcome or event which has not
been forecast or anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had
even thought about it) - but which has extreme impact and far-reaching and effect. This
term is also often used as a descriptive adjective - as in the expression wild-card event.
1. SURPRISE – Wild Card Events are a complete and totally unexpected surprise to the
observer - the scale of the event falling well outside the realm of previous experience.
2. SIGNIFICANCE - Wild Card Events have a significant impact as a catalyst of change - or
as an agent of renewal or transformation – or even signify a new beginning or fresh chapter.
3. SPEED - Wild Card Events appear out of nowhere – then unfold with speed and rapidity.
4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Wild Card Events may represent either a potentially serious
challenge or threat – or present the observer with a novel and unexpected opportunity.
5. PARADOX - Wild Card Events are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance
they could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available
and detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.
Wild Card Events
Definition of “Wild card” Event
• A “Wild card” Event is a surprise - an event or occurrence that deviates outside of what
would normally be expected of any given situation or set of circumstances, and which therefore
would be difficult to anticipate or predict. This term was coined by Stephen Aguilar-Milan in the
1960’s and popularised by Ansoff in the 1970’s. Wild card Events – are any unforeseen,
sudden and unexpected change events or transformation scenarios which occur within the
military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape - having a low probability of
occurrence, coupled with an high impact when they do occur (Stephen Aguilar-Milan): -
• Horizon Scanning – Wild card Event Types
– Technology Shock Waves
– Religion, Culture and Human Identity Shock Waves
– Art, Architecture, Design and Fashion Shock Waves
– Epidemics – outbreaks of contagious diseases
• Environment Scanning - Wild card Event Types
– Natural disasters – flooding, drought, earthquakes, volcanic activity
– Human Activity Impact on the Environment – Climate Change Events
Wild Cards
1. Wild Card Events have been defined, for example, by Rockfellow (1994), who speculated that a
wild card is "an event having a low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact if it
does occur."
2. Wild Cards represents the appearance, materialisation or manifestation of a RANDOM EVENT
- either a potential threat or perceived opportunity to yourself and / or your organization - and
may contain within them, the seeds of a possible major future global advantage or reversal – a
forthcoming “Black Swan” event
3. Listing examples of specific 21st Century Wild Cards in 1994, Rockfellow defined three wild
cards principles: -
1. 21st Century Wild Cards manifest themselves at the beginning of the Business Cycle– or
act to bring to an end the current the Business Cycle (i.e. within 11 years of a prior cycle)
2. 21st Century Wild Cards have a probability of re-occurring again at a rate of less than 1 in
10 years – but reappear with increased speed, frequency, severity and impact over time
3. 21st Century Wild Cards events will likely have high impact on international businesses
4. Wild Cards are "low-probability, hi-impact events that happen quickly" and "they have huge
sweeping consequences." Wild cards, according to Petersen, generally surprise everyone,
because they materialize so quickly that the underlying social systems cannot effectively
anticipate or respond to them (Petersen 1999).
5. According to Cornish (2003: 19), a Wild Card is an unexpected, surprising or even startling
event that has sudden impact, important outcomes and far-reaching consequences. He
continues: "Wild cards have the power to radically change many processes and events and to
entirely overturn people's thinking, planning and actions."
Wild Cards
Property Different Views and Viewpoints
1 Nature Wild cards follow in the sequence of Random Events, Weak Signals and
Strong Signals – to give the first exposure to novel and emerging events
and event clusters, ideas, patterns or trends that arrive from the future –
beginning transformations and changes which now have a very real
presence and effect – impacting on how we do business, what business
we do, and the future environment in which we will all live, work and play.
2 Purpose Wild cards are used in Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring –
providing information for the purposes of Future Analysis and Future
Management, Strategy Analysis and Strategy Management,
3 Source Random Events, Weak Signals, Strong Signals and Wild cards and
Black Swan Events – are a linked sequence of integrated waves in a
timeline and ascending order of magnitude and impact, which have a
common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance – or
arising from a linked and integrated series of chaotic and disruptive
related Random Events – as part of a Random Event Cluster or
Random Event Storm.
Wild Cards
Property Different Views and Viewpoints
4 Identification Wild cards are much easier to recognise than Weak Signals and
Strong Signals, above the background of “white noise” from and
other signals from foreground and background noise sources
5 Perception Whereas Weak Signals and even Strong Signals are often missed,
dismissed or scoffed at by other Subject Matter Experts – Wild
cards events are almost universally recognised and accepted
6 Opportunity Wild cards bring realisation of startling new events, novel and
emerging ideas, influences and messages - therefore they represent
an third and final window of potential opportunity.
7 Quality Weak Signals and even Strong Signals may be novel and surprising
from the signal analyst's vantage point - Wild cards, however,
cannot be so easily dismissed. Many other signal analyst's may
now join in to confirm and support the content of such Wild cards.
9 Timing Wild cards may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they
follow their preceding indicators, those prior Weak Signals and their
followers, the Strong Signals
Wild Cards
• Climate and Environmental Agents & Catalysts of Change impact on Human Futures •
• For most of human existence our ancestors led precarious lives as scavengers, hunters,
and gatherers, and there were fewer than 10 million human beings on Earth at any one
time. Today, many of our cities have more than 10 million inhabitants each - as global
human populations continue to grow unchecked. The total global human population
stands today at 7 billion - with as many as three billion more people on the planet by 2050.
• Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic
(Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto - one or more Natural
Cycles – Orbital, Climate and so on. Current trends in Human Population Growth are
unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy and Water (FEW) –
which will first limit, then reverse human population growth – falling below 1bn by 2060 ?
• Over the long term, ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but at the
expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations. Global population will
rise to 10 billion by 2040 – followed by a massive population collapse to under 1 billion -
recovering to 1 billion by the end of the 21st century. There are eight major threats to
Human Society, which are “Chill”, “Grill”, “Ill”, “Kill”, “Nil”, “Spill”, “Thrill” and “Till”.
Environmental Wild Card Event Types
Event Type Force Environmental Black Swan Event
1 Natural
Disasters &
Catastrophe
Natural
Forces
Natural disasters occur when extreme magnitude events of stochastic
natural processes cause severe damage to human society. "Catastrophe" is
used about an extreme disaster, although originally both referred only to
extreme events (disaster is from the Latin, catastrophe from Ancient Greek).
Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and
Pre-historic (Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto -
one or more Natural Cycles. Current trends in Human Population Growth
are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy
and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population
growth. Ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at
the expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations.
2 Global
Massive
Change
Events
Human
Activity
Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment - Global
Massive Change Events. In their starkest warning yet, following nearly
seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world
begins to moderate greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross
the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this century. That would have
serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and changes to
rainfall meaning dry regions get less and already wet areas receive more.
Wild Card Event Types
Type Force Technology Shock Wave Event
3 Technology
Shock Waves
Innovation Technology Shock Waves – Disruptive Technologies: -
Stone – Tools for Hunting, Crafting Artefacts and making Fire
Fire – for Warmth, Cooking and managing the Environment
Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements
Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation
Ship Building – Communication, Culture and Trade
Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare
Gun-powder – Global Imperialism and Colonisation
Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism
Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings
Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport
Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives and Agrochemicals
Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency
Physics – Satellites and Space Technology
Nuclear Fission – Globalisation and Urbanisation
Digital Communications – The Information Age
Smart Cities of the Future – The Solar Age - Renewable
Energy and Sustainable Societies
Nuclear Fusion – The Hydrogen Age - energy independence -
Inter-planetary travel and discovery, Human Settlements
Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar
travel & discovery, Galactic Colonisation, Cities & Urbanisation
Wild Card Event Types Type Force Wild card Event
4 Impact
Event
Gravity Asteroid or comet impact – the odds of an asteroid or comet impact on the
Earth depend on the size of the Object. An Object approximately 15 feet in
diameter hits the Earth once every several months; 35 feet every 10 years; 60
feet every 100 years; 200 feet, or size of the Tunguska impact, every 200
years; 350 feet every several thousand years; 1,000 feet every 50,000 years;
six tenths of a mile every 500,000 years; and 5 to 6 miles across every 100
million years.
5 Thermal
Process
Geo-
Thermal
Energy
“Spill Moments” - Local and Regional Natural Disasters e.g. Andesitic volcanic
eruption at tectonic plate margins – for example, the Vesuvius eruption and ash
cloud destroying the Roman cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii, and Volcanic
eruption / collapse causing Landslides and Tsunamis - Stromboli eruption /
collapse fatally weakening the Minoan Civilisation on Crete, Krakatau eruption
in the 19th Century causing Indonesian Tsunamis, ocean-floor sediment slips
causing in recent years the recent Pacific / Indian Oceanic, and Japanese
Tsunamis – resulting in coastal flooding, inundation and widespread destruction
“Thrill Moments” - Continental or Global Natural Disasters – Extinction-level
Events (ELE) such as the Deccan and Siberian Traps Basaltic Flood Volcanic
Events, Asteroid and Meteorite Impacts, Gamma-ray Bursts from nearby
collapsing stars dying and going Supernova – which have all variously
contributed towards the late Pre-Cambrian “Frozen Globe”, Permian-Triassic
and Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary global mass extinction events.
Wild card Events Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
6 Climate
Change
Human
Activity
Melting of the polar ice-caps, rising sea levels – combined with increased
severity and frequency of extreme weather events – El Nino and La Nina
have already begun to threaten these low-lying coastal cities (New Orleans,
Brisbane). By 2040, a combination of rising sea levels, storm surges of
increased intensity and duration and flash floods – will flood much more
often. Coast, Deltas, Estuaries & River Valleys will flood up to 90km inland
up to 90 km into the interior from the present coast – frequently drowning
many of the major cities along with much of our most productive agricultural
land – and washing away homes and soil in the process. Human Population
Drift to Cities and Urbanisation also drives the destruction of prime arable
land – as it is gobbled up by developers to build even more cities.
Liquid water melted by warm air at the surface of a glacier, runs down sink-
holes to the glacier base where it lubricates the rock / glacier interface –
causing glacier flow surges up to 20 times the normal flow-rate. Increased
glacial flow-rate is usually further aided and by the loss of sea pack ice –
which acts to moderate Glacier flow during cold periods - due to oceanic
temperature rise (oceanic climate forcing). This scenario does satisfy not
the timing requirements of climate change events which occur at the
culmination of a next Bond Cycles – believed to be oceanic climate forcing
phenomena. It does fit in well with the rapid rise in temperature that occurs
at the beginning of the next Bond Cycle – which takes only a few decades
after the culmination of the previous Bond Cycle.
Wild card Events
Type Force Black Swan Event
7 Climate
Change
Event
Solar
Forcing
Climate Change – Dansgaard-Oetcher and Bond Cycles - oceanic climate forcing
cycles consisting of episodes of rapid warming followed by slow cooling have been
traced and plotted over the last 26 cycles – 40,000 years - with metronomic precision
of exact 1,490-years periodicity. Solar orbital cycle variations with periodicities from
20,000 to 400,000-years have also been traced and plotted over many cycles – tens of
millions of years – again with metronomic regularity. These longer-scale Milankovich
Cycles are responsible for Pluvial and Inter-pluvial episodes (Ice Ages) during the
Quaternary period - due to orbital variation causing changes to solar climate forcing.
Global warming—Human Activity has been largely held responsible for the Earth
getting warmer every decade for the last two hundred years – and the rate of warming
has accelerated over the last few decades. The Earth could eventually wind up like its
greenhouse sister, Venus. “Grill” - rapidly rising temperatures such as found in Ice
Age Inter-Glacial episodes (Inter-pluvial Periods) – precipitating environmental and
ecological change under heat stress and drought – causing the disappearance of the
Neanderthal, Soloutrean and Clovis cultures with deforestation, desertification and
drying driving the migration or disappearance of the Anastasia in SW America - along
with the Sahara Desert migrating south and impacting on Sub-Saharan cultures.
.Global cooling— The Earth has dramatically cooled and plunged into Ice Ages on
many occasions throughout Geological History, Earth might eventually change to
resemble its frozen sister, Mars. “Chill” – rapid cooling, e.g. Ice Age Glaciations
(Pluvial Periods) causing the depopulation of Northern Europe in early hominid Eolithic
times and impact of the medieval “mini Ice Age” on Danish settlers in Greenland.
Wild Card Event Types
Type Force Wild card Event
5 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Human
Impact
on Eco-
system
FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW -
Food, Energy, Water) and increased competition to obtain those scarce
resources begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population
levels will continue expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings
by the middle of this century – then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion –
slowly recovering and stabilising out again at a sustainable population of about 1
billion human beings by the end of this century.
“Till Moments” - Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and
environmental support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing
exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-
forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic ecological damage and
resulting in climatic change – for example, the Easter Island culture, the de-
population of upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards –
including the Iron Age retreat from northern and southern English uplands, the
Scottish Highland Clearances and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer
and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates
and the current sub-Saharan de-forestation and subsequent desertification by
semi-nomadic pastoralists. Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down
the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?
Wild Card Event Types
Type Force Wild card Event
8 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Disease
“Ill Moments” - Contact with a foreign population or alien civilization and their
bio-cloud – bringing along with them their own parasite burden and contagious
diseases (viruses and bacteria) - leading to pandemics to which the exposed
human population has developed little or no immunity or treatment. Examples
include the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in Europe in ships from Asia,
Spanish Explorers sailing up the Amazon and spreading Smallpox to Amazonian
Basin Indians from the Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture and Columbian Sailors
returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from the New World, the Spanish Flu
Pandemic carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great War - which
killed more people than did all the military action during the whole of WWI).
9 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Predation
“Kill Moments” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a civilisation with
superior technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe,
William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish
conquistadores meet Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and South
America, Cowboys v. Indians across the plains of North America…..
10 Hyper-
space
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
“Nil Moments” – Singularity or Hyperspace Events where the Earth and Solar
System are swallowed up by a rogue Black Hole – or the dimensional fabric of
the whole Universe is ripped apart when two Membranes (Universes) collide in
hyperspace and one dimension set is subsumed into the other – they merge into
a large multi-dimensional Membrane – and split up into two new Membranes?
Recent Historic Wild card Events Wild card Events Surprise Impact Type Trigger
Tay Bridge disaster (1879) – railway bridge collapsed during a
violent storm whilst a passenger train was passing across
High Medium Bridge
Design
Wind
Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse (1940) – road bridge
collapsed in a moderate wind due to “aeroelastic flutter”
High Low Bridge
Design
Wind
Flixborough Chemical Works Disaster (1974) – cyclo-hexane
chemical leak resulting in a hydrocarbon vapour cloud explosion
High Medium Health &
Safety
Equipment
Failure
Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986) – safety systems shut down
for a technical exercise on the turbine generator – core meltdown
High High Health &
Safety
Human
Error
World Trade Centre (1990) – Wahid terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism
World Trade Centre (2001) – Al Qaida terrorist group activity High High Security Terrorism
Buncefield storage depot (2005) – undetected oil fuel leak
ignited resulting in a hydrocarbon vapour cloud explosion
High Medium Health &
Safety
Equipment
Failure
Texas City oil refinery explosion (2005) – hydrocarbon cloud
accumulation from a fuel leak - resulting in a vapour explosion
High Medium Health &
Safety
Equipment
Failure
Gulf of Mexico oil rig explosion (2009) – high pressure methane
blow-back during deep water drilling - resulting in a explosion
High High Health &
Safety
Human
Error
Mumbai Taj Mahal Hotel (2012) – Taliban terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism
Nairobi Shopping Mall (2013) – Al Shabab terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism
Black Swan Events
Black Swan Events
Definition of “Black Swan” Event
• A “Black Swan” Event is a surprise - a random event or occurrence that deviates well beyond
the bounds of what is normally expected of any given situation or set of circumstances, and
which would be extremely difficult or impossible to anticipate, forecast or predict. This term was
popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a global investment fund manager. Black Swan Events
are any unforeseen, sudden and extreme random events – agent and catalysts of massive
change, Global-level transformation scenarios which occur within the military, political, social,
economic or environmental landscape, having an inordinately low probability of occurrence -
coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur (Nassim Taleb).
• Horizon Scanning - Black Swan Event Types
– Pandemics - global outbreaks of Disease
– Political, Economic and Social Shock Waves
– Market Supply / Demand and Price Shock Waves
– Global Conflict – War, Terrorism, and Insecurity Shock Waves
• Environment Scanning - Black Swan Event Types
– Natural Disasters and Catastrophes
– Human Activity Impact on the Environment – Global Massive Change Events
Black Swan Events
• Black Swan events are typically random and unexpected - characterized by three main
criteria: first, they are surprising, falling outside the realm of usual expectation; second,
they have a major effect (sometimes even of historical significance); and third, with the
benefit of hindsight they are often rationalized as something that could or should have
been foreseen - had all of the facts been available and examined carefully enough.
• One of the chief contexts in which the term Black Swan currently occurs is in economic
and financial, especially in reference to the global economic turmoil of recent years.
Financial analysts have also extended the Black Swan metaphor to talk about grey
swans, events which are possible or known-about, and are potentially extremely
significant, but which are considered by some to be unlikely. Among a group of recently
identified grey swans in the financial domain is the so-called fiscal cliff, a cocktail of tax
increases and spending cuts which could be disastrous for the US economy.
• As an example, the previously highly successful hedge fund Long Term Capital
Management (LTCM) was forced into bankruptcy as a result of the ripple effect caused
by the Russian government's debt default. The Russian government's default
represents a Black Swan Event - because none of LTCM's Risk managers or their
computer models could have reasonably predicted this event , nor any of the Events
subsequent unforeseen impacts, consequences and effects.
Black Swan Events
• The phrase Black Swan is a metaphor describing an unusual and rare random event
which is totally unanticipated (perhaps because it seemed impossible or because no-one
had considered it before) - which has extreme and far-reaching consequences. This term
is also often used as a descriptive adjective - as in the expression black-swan event.
1. SHOCK - Black Swan Events are a complete and totally unexpected shock to the observer
- the scale of the event falling well outside the bounds of any prior expectations.
2. SEVERE - Black Swan Events have a severe impact, even a historical significance, as a
catalyst of massive change - or as an agent bringing severe global transformation.
3. SUDDEN - Black Swan Events appear suddenly and unfold with an extraordinary pace.
4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Black Swan Events may represent either a potentially
catastrophic threat – or challenge the observer with novel and unexpected opportunities.
5. PARADOX - Black Swan Events are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance
they could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available
and detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.
Fiscal Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Fiscal Black Swan Event
1 Oil-Price
Shock
Market
forces
Economic cycles and the global recessions that followed have been tightly
coupled with the price of oil since the Oil Price shocks of the 1970s. In the
1980’s, spurred on by these events, economists analysed the relationship
between the price of Oil and economic output in a number of econometric
studies, demonstrating a positive correlation in the US and other industrial
countries between oil prices and industrial output. The Oil Price shocks of
1990 and 2008 had a relatively lower impact on the global economy.
2 Money
Supply
Shock
Market
forces
Contemporary Fiscal Models for the demand and supply of money are either
inconsistent with the adjustment of price levels to expected changes in the
nominal money supply - or demonstrate implausible fluctuations in interest
rates in response to unexpected changes in the nominal money supply.
A new “shock-absorber” model of money demand and supply views money
supply shocks as impacting the synchronisation of purchases and sales of
assets - to create a temporary desire to hold more or less money than would
normally be the case. The shock-absorber variables significantly improve the
modelling of estimated short-run money demand functions in every respect.
3 Sovereign
State Debt
Default
Market
Forces
Whilst Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain - even the USA -
might be on the brink of defaulting on its sovereign loans, causing global
markets to plunge and economies to decelerate, there’s nothing particularly
novel about this type of financial crisis – which has occurred many times.
Historic Financial Black Swan Events
Black Swan Events Surprise Impact Trigger Event
The Wall Street Crash (1927) High High Market Forces
The Great Depression (1929-1931) High High Market Forces
Oil Price Shock (1970) High High Arab-Israeli War
Global Recession (1970-1971) High High Market Forces
Oil Price Shock (1978) High High Market Forces
Global Recession (1978-1980) High High Market Forces
Global Recession (1990-1992) High High Market Forces
USA Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces
CDO Toxic Asset Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces
Financial Services Sector Collapse (2008) High High Market Forces
Credit Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces
Sovereign Debt Crisis (2008-2014) High High Market Forces
Money Supply Shock (2008) High High Market Forces
Global Recession (2008-2014) High High Market Forces
Trigger D
USA Sub-Prime
Mortgage Crisis
Trigger F
CDO Toxic
Asset Crisis
K
E Trigger
K Sovereign
Debt Crisis
B Trigger
I
Money
Supply
Shock
C Trigger
H
Financial
Services
Sector
Collapse
D Trigger
G
L
A Trigger
J
Credit
Crisis
Global
Recession
Black Swan Events
Definition of a “Black Swan” Event
• A “Black Swan” Event is an event or
occurrence that deviates beyond what is
normally expected of any given situation
and that would be extremely difficult to
predict. This term was popularised by
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance
professor and former Investment Fund
Manager and Wall Street trader.
• Black Swan Events – are unforeseen,
sudden and extreme or change events or
Global-level transformation in either the
military, political, social, economic or
environmental landscape. Black Swan
Events have an inordinately low
probability of occurrence - coupled with an
extraordinarily high impact when they do
occur (Nassim Taleb). “Black Swan” Event Cluster or “Storm”
Geo-spatial Data Science
GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis
• GIS MAPPING and SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS •
• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software and digital data capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of data streams - HDCCTV, aerial and satellite image data.....
• Spatial Data Analysis is a set of techniques for analysing 3-dimensional spatial (Geographic) data and location (Positional) object data overlays. Software that implements spatial analysis techniques requires access to both the locations of objects and their physical attributes. Spatial statistics extends traditional statistics to support the analysis of geographic data. Spatial Data Analysis provides techniques to describe the distribution of data in the geographic space (descriptive spatial statistics), analyse the spatial patterns of the data (spatial pattern or cluster analysis), identify and measure spatial relationships (spatial regression), and create a surface from sampled data (spatial interpolation, usually categorized as geo-statistics).
• The results of spatial data analysis are largely dependent upon the type, quantity, distribution and data quality of the spatial objects under analysis.
Geo-demographics - “Big Data”
The profiling and analysis of very large scale
(VLS) aggregated datasets in order to
determine a ‘natural’ structure of groupings
provides an important technique for many
statistical and analytic applications.
Cluster analysis on the basis of profile
similarities or geographic location is a
method where internal data structures alone
drive both the nature or number of “Clusters”
or natural groups and hierarchies. Clusters
are therefore entirely probabilistic – that is,
no pre-determinations or prior assumptions
are made as to their nature and content.....
Geo-demographic techniques are frequently
used in order to profile and segment human
populations along with their lifestyle events
into natural groupings or “Clusters” – which
are governed by geographical distribution,
common behavioural traits, Morbidity,
Actuarial, Epidemiology or Clinical Trial
outcomes - along with numerous other
shared events, common characteristics or
other natural factors and features.....
Geo-demographics - “Big Data”
GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis
• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software and digital data
capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of
geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as
Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning
System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of data streams - HDCCTV, aerial
and satellite image data.....
• Spatial Data Analysis is a set of techniques for analysing spatial (Geographic) location data.
The results of spatial analysis are dependent on the locations of the objects being
analysed. Software that implements spatial analysis techniques requires access to both the
locations of objects and their physical attributes.
• Spatial statistics extends traditional statistics to support the analysis of geographic data.
Spatial Data Analysis provides techniques to describe the distribution of data in the
geographic space (descriptive spatial statistics), analyse the spatial patterns of the data
(spatial pattern or cluster analysis), identify and measure spatial relationships (spatial
regression), and create a surface from sampled data (spatial interpolation, usually categorized
as geo-statistics).
• The results of spatial data analysis are largely dependent upon the type, quantity,
distribution and data quality of the spatial objects under analysis.
GIS MAPPING and SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS
• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software, and data capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of aerial and satellite image data.....
Temporal Wave – 4D Geospatial Analytics
• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration
of Geospatial “Big Data” - simultaneously within a Time (history) and Space (geographic)
context. The problems encountered in exploring and analysing vast volumes of spatial–
temporal information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming increasingly difficult to
manage effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and scale in a Time
(history) and Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–space and
attribute–space analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with the
additional dimension of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method
of Visual Exploration for Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.
• This time-visualisation approach integrates Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal
(timeline) data along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,
exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-
visual “Big Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear
timeline and cyclical wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time
(history) and Space (geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of
granularity. Linear and cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination
with other graphic representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-
types. The Temporal Wave can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system,
as a time–space continuum representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.
Geo-Demographic Profile Data GEODEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION – PEOPLE and PLACES
Age Dwelling Location / Postcode
Income Dwelling Owner / Occupier Status
Education Dwelling Number-of-rooms
Social Status Dwelling Type
Marital Status Financial Status
Gender / Sexual Preference Politically Active Indicator
Vulnerable / At Risk Indicator Security / Threat Indicator
Physical / Mental Health Status Security Vetting / Criminal Record Indicator
Immigration Status Profession / Occupation
Home / First language Professional Training / Qualifications
Race / ethnicity / country of origin Employment Status
Household structure and family members Employer SIC
Leisure Activities / Destinations Place of work / commuting journey
Mode of travel to / from Leisure Activities Mode of travel to / from work
Temporal Wave – 4D Geospatial Analytics
• "Big Data” Analytics – Profiling, Clustering and 4D Geospatial Analysis •
• The profiling and analysis of large aggregated datasets in order to determine a ‘natural’
structure of data relationships or groupings, is an important starting point forming the
basis of many mapping, statistical and analytic applications. Cluster analysis of implicit
similarities - such as time-series demographic or geographic distribution - is a critical
technique where no prior assumptions are made concerning the number or type of
groups that may be found, or their relationships, hierarchies or internal data structures.
Geospatial and demographic techniques are frequently used in order to profile and
segment populations by ‘natural’ groupings. Shared characteristics or common factors
such as Behaviour / Propensity or Epidemiology, Clinical, Morbidity and Actuarial
outcomes – allow us to discover and explore previously unknown, unrecognised or
concealed insights, patterns, trends or data relationships. "Big Data" sources include: -
– SCADA and Environmental Control Data from Smart Buildings
– Vehicle Telemetry Data from Passenger and Transport Vehicles
– Market Data Streams – Financial, Energy and Commodities Markets
– Geospatial Exploration / Production Data created in from Surveys and Images
– Machine-generated / Automatically-captured Biomedical and Scientific Data Sets
4D Geospatial Analytics – London Timeline
4D Geospatial Analytics – London Timeline
• How did London evolve from its creation as a Roman city in 43AD into the crowded, chaotic cosmopolitan megacity we see today? The London Evolution Animation takes a holistic view of what has been constructed in the capital over different historical periods – what has been lost, what saved and what protected.
• Greater London covers 600 square miles. Up until the 17th century, however, the capital city was crammed largely into a single square mile which today is marked by the skyscrapers which are a feature of the financial district of the City.
• This visualisation, originally created for the Almost Lost exhibition by the Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), explores the historic evolution of the city by plotting a timeline of the development of the road network - along with documented buildings and other features – through 4D geospatial analysis of a vast number of diverse geographic, archaeological and historic data sets.
• Unlike other historical cities such as Athens or Rome, with an obvious patchwork of districts from different periods, London's individual structures scheduled sites and listed buildings are in many cases constructed gradually by parts assembled during different periods. Researchers who have tried previously to locate and document archaeological structures and research historic references will know that these features, when plotted, appear scrambled up like pieces of different jigsaw puzzles – all scattered across the contemporary London cityscape.
History of Digital Epidemiology
• Doctor John Snow (15 March 1813 – 16
June 1858) was an English physician and a
leading figure in the adoption of anaesthesia
and medical hygiene. John Snow is largely
credited with sparking and pursuing a total
transformation in Public Health and epidemic
disease management and is considered one
of the fathers of modern epidemiology in part
because of his work in tracing the source of
a cholera outbreak in Soho, London, in 1854.
• John Snows’ investigation and findings into
the Broad Street cholera outbreak - which
occurred in 1854 near Broad Street in the
London district of Soho in England - inspired
fundamental changes in both the clean and
waste water systems of London, which led to
further similar changes in other cities, and a
significant improvement in understanding of
Public Health around the whole of the world.
History of Digital Epidemiology
• The Broad Street cholera outbreak of
1854 was a major cholera epidemic or
severe outbreak of cholera which
occurred in 1854 near Broad Street in
the London district of Soho in England .
• This cholera outbreak is best known for
statistical analysis and study of the
epidemic by the physician John Snow
and his discovery that cholera is spread
by contaminated water. This knowledge
drove improvement in Public Health with
mass construction of sanitation facilities
from the middle of the19th century.
• Later, the term "focus of infection" would
be used to describe factors such as the
Broad Street pump – where Social and
Environmental conditions may result in
the outbreak of local infectious diseases.
History of Digital Epidemiology • It was the study of
cholera epidemics, particularly in Victorian England during the middle of the 19th century, which laid the foundation for epidemiology - the applied observation and surveillance of epidemics and the statistical analysis of public health data.
• This discovery came at a time when the miasma theory of disease transmission by noxious “foul air” prevailed in the medical community.
History of Digital Epidemiology
Modern epidemiology has its origin with the study of Cholera
Broad Street cholera outbreak of 1854
History of Digital Epidemiology
Modern epidemiology has its origin with the study of Cholera.
• It was the study of cholera epidemics, particularly in Victorian England
during the middle of the 19th century, that laid the foundation for the science
of epidemiology - the applied observation and surveillance of epidemics and
the statistical analysis of public health data. It was during a time when the
miasma theory of disease transmission prevailed in the medical community.
• John Snow is largely credited with sparking and pursuing a transformation in
Public Health and epidemic disease management from the extant paradigm
in which communicable illnesses were thought to have been carried by
bad, malodorous airs, or "miasmas“ - towards a new paradigm which would
begin to recognize that virulent contagious and infectious diseases are
communicated by various other means – such as water being polluted by
human sewage. This new approach to disease management recognised that
contagious diseases were either directly communicable through contact with
infected individuals - or via vectors of infection (water, in the case of cholera)
which are susceptible to contamination by viral and bacterial agents.
History of Digital Epidemiology • This map is John Snow’s
famous plot of the 1854 Broad Street Cholera Outbreak in London. By plotting epidemic data on a map like this, John Snow was able to identify that the outbreak was centred on a specific water pump.
• Interviews confirmed that outlying cases were from people who would regularly walk past the pump and take a drink. He removed the handle off the water pump and the outbreak ended almost overnight.
• The cause of cholera (bacteria Vibria cholerae) was unknown at the time, and Snow’s important work with cholera in London during the 1850s is considered the beginning of modern epidemiology. Some have even gone so far as to describe Snow’s Broad Street Map as the world’s first GIS.
History of Digital Epidemiology
Broad Street cholera outbreak of 1854
Clinical Risk Types
Clinical Risk Types
Clinical Risk Group
Employee
Patient
B
A
Human Risk Process
Risk
D
Morbidity Risk Types
Morbidity Risk Group
C
Legal Risk
F
3rd Party Risk
G
C
Technology Risk
Trauma Risk
E
Morbidity Risk
H E
J
G
A
I D
Immunological System Risk
Sponsorship
Stakeholders Disease
Risk
Shock Risk
Cardiovascular System Risk
Pulmonary System Risk
Toxicity Risk
Organ Failure Risk
- Airways
- Conscious
- Bleeding
Triage Risk
- Performance
- Finance
- Standards
Compliance Risk
H
Patient Risk
Neurological System Risk
F
B
Predation Risk
Risk Complexity Map
• Case Study • Pandemics
• Pandemics - during a pandemic episode, such as the recent Ebola outbreak, current
policies emphasise the need to ground decision-making on empiric evidence. This section
studies the tension that remains in decision-making processes when their is a sudden and
unpredictable change of course in an outbreak – or when key evidence is weak or ‘silent’.
• The current focus in epidemiology is on the ‘known unknowns’ - factors with which we are
familiar in the pandemic risk assessment processes. These risk processes cover, for
example, monitoring the course of the pandemic, estimating the most affected age groups,
and assessing population-level clinical and pharmaceutical interventions. This section
looks for the ‘unknown unknowns’ - factors with a lack of, or silence, of evidence, of which
we have only limited or weak understanding in the pandemic risk assessment processes.
• Pandemic risk assessment shows, that any developing, new and emerging or sudden and
unpredictable change in the pandemic situation does not accumulate a robust body of
evidence for decision making. These uncertainties may be conceptualised as ‘unknown
unknowns’, or “silent evidence”. Historical and archaeological pandemic studies indicate
that there may well have been evidence that was not discovered, known or recognised.
This section looks at a new method to discover “silent evidence” - unknown factors - that
affect pandemic risk assessment - by focusing on the tension under pressure that impacts
upon the actions of key decision-makers in the pandemic risk decision-making process.
Antonine Plague (Smallpox ) AD 165-180
Pandemic Black Swan Events Black Swan Pandemic Type / Location Impact Date
Malaria For the entirety of human history,
Malaria has been a pathogen
The Malaria pathogen kills more
humans than any other disease 20 kya – present
Smallpox (Antonine Plague) Smallpox Roman Empire / Italy Smallpox is the 2nd worst killer 165-180
Black Death (Plague of Justinian) Bubonic Plague – Roman Empire 50 million people died 6th century
Black Death (Late Middle Ages) Bubonic Plague – Europe 75 to 200 million people died 1340–1400
Smallpox Amazonian Basin Indians 90% Amazonian Indians died 16th century
Tuberculosis Western Europe, 18th - 19th c 900 deaths per 100,000 pop. 18th - 19th c
Syphilis Global pandemic – invariably fatal 10% of Victorian men carriers 19th century
1st Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic Started in the Bay of Bengal 1817-1823
2nd Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic (arrived in London in 1832) 1826-1837
Spanish Flu Global pandemic 50 million people died 1918
Smallpox Global pandemic 300 million people died in 20th c Eliminated 20th c
Poliomyelitis Global pandemic Contracted by up to 500,000
persons per year 1950’s/1960’s 1950’s -1960’s
AIDS Global pandemic – mostly fatal 10% Sub-Saharans are carriers Late 20th century
Ebola West African epidemic – 50% fatal Sub-Saharan Africa epicentre Late 20th century
• Case Study • Pandemics
• Pandemics - during a pandemic episode, such as the recent Ebola outbreak, current
policies emphasise the need to ground decision-making on empiric evidence. This section
studies the tension that remains in decision-making processes when their is a sudden and
unpredictable change of course in an outbreak – or when key evidence is weak or ‘silent’.
• The current focus in epidemiology is on the ‘known unknowns’ - factors with which we are
familiar in the pandemic risk assessment processes. These risk processes cover, for
example, monitoring the course of the pandemic, estimating the most affected age groups,
and assessing population-level clinical and pharmaceutical interventions. This section
looks for the ‘unknown unknowns’ - factors with a lack of, or silence, of evidence, of which
we have only limited or weak understanding in the pandemic risk assessment processes.
• Pandemic risk assessment shows, that any developing, new and emerging or sudden and
unpredictable change in the pandemic situation does not accumulate a robust body of
evidence for decision making. These uncertainties may be conceptualised as ‘unknown
unknowns’, or “silent evidence”. Historical and archaeological pandemic studies indicate
that there may well have been evidence that was not discovered, known or recognised.
This section looks at a new method to discover “silent evidence” - unknown factors - that
affect pandemic risk assessment - by focusing on the tension under pressure that impacts
upon the actions of key decision-makers in the pandemic risk decision-making process.
• Case Study • Pandemics
Antonine Plague (Smallpox ) AD 165-180
Pandemic Black Swan Events Black Swan Pandemic Type / Location Impact Date
Malaria For the entirety of human history,
Malaria has been a pathogen
The Malaria pathogen kills more
humans than any other disease 20 kya – present
Smallpox (Antonine Plague) Smallpox Roman Empire / Italy Smallpox is the 2nd worst killer 165-180
Black Death (Plague of Justinian) Bubonic Plague – Roman Empire 50 million people died 6th century
Black Death (Late Middle Ages) Bubonic Plague – Europe 75 to 200 million people died 1340–1400
Smallpox Amazonian Basin Indians 90% Amazonian Indians died 16th century
Tuberculosis Western Europe, 18th - 19th c 900 deaths per 100,000 pop. 18th - 19th c
Syphilis Global pandemic – invariably fatal 10% of Victorian men carriers 19th century
1st Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic Started in the Bay of Bengal 1817-1823
2nd Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic (arrived in London in 1832) 1826-1837
Spanish Flu Global pandemic 50 million people died 1918
Smallpox Global pandemic 300 million people died in 20th c Eliminated 20th c
Poliomyelitis Global pandemic Contracted by up to 500,000
persons per year 1950’s/1960’s 1950’s -1960’s
AIDS Global pandemic – mostly fatal 10% Sub-Saharans are carriers Late 20th century
Ebola West African epidemic – 50% fatal Sub-Saharan Africa epicentre Late 20th century
For the entirety of human history, Malaria has been the most lethal pathogen to attack man
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
1 Malaria Parasitic
Biological
Disease
The Malaria pathogen has killed more humans than any other disease. Human
malaria most likely originated in Africa and has coevolved along with its hosts,
mosquitoes and non-human primates. The first evidence of malaria parasites
was found in mosquitoes preserved in amber from the Palaeogene period that
are approximately 30 million years old. Malaria may have been a human
pathogen for the entire history of the species. Humans may have originally
caught Plasmodium falciparum from gorillas. About 10,000 years ago, a period
which coincides with the development of agriculture (Neolithic revolution) -
malaria started having a major impact on human survival. A consequence was
natural selection for sickle-cell disease, thalassaemias, glucose-6-phosphate
dehydrogenase deficiency, ovalocytosis, elliptocytosis and loss of the Gerbich
antigen (glycophorin C) and the Duffy antigen on erythrocytes because such
blood disorders confer a selective advantage against malaria infection (balancing
selection). The first known description of malaria dates back 4000 years to 2700
B.C. China where ancient writings refer to symptoms now commonly associated
with malaria. Early malaria treatments were first developed in China from
Quinghao plant, which contains the active ingredient artemisinin, re-discovered
and still used in anti-malaria drugs today. Largely overlooked by researchers is
the role of disease and epidemics in the fall of Rome. Three major types of
inherited genetic resistance to malaria (sickle-cell disease, thalassaemias, and
glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency) were all present in the
Mediterranean world 2,000 years ago, at the time of the Roman Empire.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
2 Smallpox Viral
Biological
Disease
The history of smallpox holds a unique place in medical history. One of the
deadliest viral diseases known to man, it is the first disease to be treated by
vaccination - and also the only disease to have been eradicated from the
face of the earth by vaccination. Smallpox plagued human populations for
thousands of years. Researchers who examined the mummy of Egyptian
pharaoh Ramses V (died 1157 BCE) observed scarring similar to that from
smallpox on his remains. Ancient Sanskrit medical texts, dating from about
1500 BCE, describe a smallpox-like illness. Smallpox was most likely
present in Europe by about 300 CE. – although there are no unequivocal
records of smallpox in Europe before the 6th century CE. It has been
suggested that it was a major component of the Plague of Athens that
occurred in 430 BCE, during the Peloponnesian Wars, and was described
by Thucydides. A recent analysis of the description of clinical features
provided by Galen during the Antonine Plague that swept through the
Roman Empire and Italy in 165–180, indicates that the probable cause was
smallpox. In 1796, after noting Smallpox immunity amongst milkmaids –
Edward Jenner carried out his now famous experiment on eight-year-old
James Phipps, using Cow Pox as a vaccine to confer immunity to Smallpox.
Some estimates indicate that 20th century worldwide deaths from smallpox
numbered more than 300 million. The last known case of wild smallpox
occurred in Somalia in 1977 – until recent outbreaks in Pakistan and Syria.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
3 Bubonic
Plague
Bacterial
Biological
Disease
The Bubonic Plague – or Black Death – was one of the most devastating
pandemics in human history, killing an estimated 75 to 200 million people
and peaking in Europe in the years 1348–50 CE. The Bubonic Plague is a
bacterial disease – spread by fleas carried by Asian Black Rats - which
originated in or near China and then travelled to Italy, overland along the Silk
Road, or by sea along the Silk Route. From Italy the Black Death spread
onwards through other European countries. Research published in 2002
suggests that the Black Death began in the spring of 1346 in the Russian
steppe region, where a plague reservoir stretched from the north-western
shore of the Caspian Sea into southern Russia. Although there were
several competing theories as to the etiology of the Black Death, analysis of
DNA from victims in northern and southern Europe published in 2010 and
2011 indicates that the pathogen responsible was the Yersinia pestis
bacterium, possibly causing several forms of plague. The first recorded
epidemic ravaged the Byzantine Empire during the sixth century, and was
named the Plague of Justinian after emperor Justinian I, who was infected
but survived through extensive treatment. The epidemic is estimated to have
killed approximately 50 million people in the Roman Empire alone. During
the Late Middle Ages (1340–1400) Europe experienced the most deadly
disease outbreak in history when the Black Death, the infamous pandemic
of bubonic plague, peaked in 1347, killing one third of the human population.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
4 Syphilis Bacterial
Biological
Disease
Syphilis - the exact origin of syphilis is unknown. There are two primary
hypotheses: one proposes that syphilis was carried from the Americas to
Europe by the crew of Christopher Columbus, the other proposes that
syphilis previously existed in Europe but went unrecognized. These are
referred to as the "Columbian" and "pre-Columbian" hypotheses. In late 2011
newly published evidence suggested that the Columbian hypothesis is valid.
The appearance of syphilis in Europe at the end of the 1400s heralded
decades of death as the disease raged across the continent. The first
evidence of an outbreak of syphilis in Europe were recorded in 1494/1495
in Naples, Italy, during a French invasion. First spread by returning French
troops, the disease was known as “French disease”, and it was not until
1530 that the term "syphilis" was first applied by the Italian physician and
poet Girolamo Fracastoro. By the 1800s it had become endemic, carried by
as many as 10% of men in some areas - in late Victorian London this may
have been as high as 20%. Invariably fatal, associated with extramarital sex
and prostitution, syphilis was accompanied by enormous social stigma. The
secretive nature of syphilis helped it spread - disgrace was such that many
sufferers hid their symptoms, while others carrying the latent form of the
disease were unaware they even had it. Treponema pallidum, the syphilis
causal organism, was first identified by Fritz Schaudinn and Erich Hoffmann
in 1905. The first effective treatment (Salvarsan) was developed in 1910
by Paul Ehrlich which was followed by the introduction of penicillin in 1943.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
5 Tuberculosis Bacterial
Biological
Disease
Tuberculosis - the evolutionary origins of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis
indicates that the most recent common ancestor was a human-specific
pathogen, which encountered an evolutionary bottleneck leading to
diversification. Analysis of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units has
allowed dating of this evolutionary bottleneck to approximately 40,000 years
ago, which corresponds to the period subsequent to the expansion of Homo
sapiens out of Africa. This analysis of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive
units also dated the Mycobacterium bovis lineage as dispersing some 6,000
years ago. Tuberculosis existed 15,000 to 20,000 years ago, and has been
found in human remains from ancient Egypt, India, and China. Human
bones from the Neolithic show the presence of the bacteria, which may be
linked to early farming and animal domestication. Evidence of tubercular
decay has been found in the spines of Egyptian mummies, and TB was
common both in ancient Greece and Imperial Rome. Tuberculosis reached
its peak the 18th century in Western Europe with a prevalence as high as
900 deaths per 100,000 - due to malnutrition and overcrowded housing with
poor ventilation and sanitation. Although relatively little is known about its
frequency before the 19th century, the incidence of Scrofula (consumption)
“the captain of all men of death” is thought to have peaked between the end
of the 18th century and the end of the 19th century. With advent of HIV there
has been a dramatic resurgence of tuberculosis with more than 8 million
new cases reported each year worldwide and more than 2 million deaths.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
6 Cholera Bacterial
Biological
Disease
Cholera is a severe infection in the small intestine caused by the bacterium
vibrio cholerae, contracted by drinking water or eating food contaminated
with the bacterium. Cholera symptoms include profuse watery diarrhoea and
vomiting. The primary danger posed by cholera is severe dehydration, which
can lead to rapid death. Cholera can now be treated with re-hydration and
prevented by vaccination. Cholera outbreaks in recorded history have
indeed been explosive and the global proliferation of the disease is seen by
most scholars to have occurred in six separate pandemics, with the seventh
pandemic still rampant in many developing countries around the world. The
first recorded instance of cholera was described in 1563 in an Indian medical
report. In modern times, the story of the disease begins in 1817 when it
spread from its ancient homeland of the Ganges Delta in the bay of Bengal
in North East India - to the rest of the world. The first cholera pandemic
raged from 1817-1823, the second from 1826-1837 The disease reached
Britain during October 1831 - and finally arrived in London in 1832 (13,000
deaths) with subsequent major outbreaks in 1841, 1848 (21,000 deaths)
1854 (15,000 deaths) and 1866. Surgeon John Snow – by studying the
outbreak cantered around the Broad Street well in 1854 – traced the source
of cholera to drinking water which was contaminated by infected human
faeces – ending the “miasma” or “bad air” theory of cholera transmission.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
7 Poliomyelitis Viral
Biological
Disease
The history of poliomyelitis (polio) infections extends into prehistory.
Ancient Egyptian paintings and carvings depict otherwise healthy people
with withered limbs, and children walking with canes at a young age.[3] It is
theorized that the Roman Emperor Claudius was stricken as a child, and this
caused him to walk with a limp for the rest of his life. Perhaps the earliest
recorded case of poliomyelitis is that of Sir Walter Scott. At the time, polio
was not known to medicine. In 1773 Scott was said to have developed "a
severe teething fever which deprived him of the power of his right leg." The
symptoms of poliomyelitis have been described as: Dental Paralysis,
Infantile Spinal Paralysis, Essential Paralysis of Children, Regressive
Paralysis, Myelitis of the Anterior Horns and Paralysis of the Morning.
In 1789 the first clinical description of poliomyelitis was provided by the
British physician Michael Underwood as "a debility of the lower extremities”.
Although major polio epidemics were unknown before the 20th century, the
disease has caused paralysis and death for much of human history. Over
millennia, polio survived quietly as an endemic pathogen until the 1880s
when major epidemics began to occur in Europe; soon after, widespread
epidemics appeared in the United States. By 1910, frequent epidemics
became regular events throughout the developed world, primarily in cities
during the summer months. At its peak in the 1940s and 1950s, polio would
maim, paralyse or kill over half a million people worldwide every year
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
8 Typhus Bacterial
Biological
Disease
Typhoid fever (jail fever) is an acute illness associated with a high fever that
is most often caused by the Salmonella typhi bacteria. Typhoid may also be
caused by Salmonella paratyphi, a related bacterium that usually leads to a
less severe illness. The bacteria are spread via deposition in water or food
by a human carrier. An estimated 16–33 million cases of typhoid fever occur
annually. Its incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5 and
19 years old. These cases as of 2010 caused about 190,000 deaths up from
137,000 in 1990. Historically, in the pre-antibiotic era, the case fatality rate of
typhoid fever was 10-20%. Today, with prompt treatment, it is less than 1%.
9 Dysentery Bacterial /
Parasitic
Biological
Disease
Dysentery (the Flux or the bloody flux) is a form of gastroenteritis – a type
inflammatory disorder of the intestine, especially of the colon, resulting in
severe diarrhea containing blood and mucus in the feces accompanied by
fever, abdominal pain and rectal tenesmus (feeling incomplete defecation),
caused by any kind of gastric infection. Conservative estimates suggest
that 90 million cases of Bacterial Dysentery (Shigellosis) are contracted
annually, killing at least 100,000. Amoebic Dysentery (Amebiasis) infects
some 50 million people each year, with over 50,000 cases resulting in death.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
10 Spanish
Flu
Viral
Biological
Disease
In the United States, the Spanish Flu was first observed in Haskell County,
Kansas, in January 1918, prompting a local doctor, Loring Miner to warn the
U.S. Public Health Service's academic journal. On 4th March 1918, army cook
Albert Gitchell reported sick at Fort Riley, Kansas. A week later on 11th March
1918, over 100 soldiers were in hospital and the Spanish Flu virus had now
reached Queens New York. Within days, 522 men had reported sick at the
army camp. In August 1918, a more virulent strain appeared simultaneously
in Brest, Brittany-France, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and in the U.S, in Boston,
Massachusetts. It is estimated that in 1918, between 20-40% of the worlds
population became infected by Spanish Flu - with 50 million deaths globally.
11 HIV / AIDS Viral
Biological
Disease
AIDS was first reported in America in 1981 – and provoked reactions which
echoed those associated with syphilis for so long. Many of the earliest cases
were among homosexual men - creating a climate of prejudice and moral
panic. Fear of catching this new and terrifying disease was also widespread
among the public. The observed time-lag between contracting HIV and the
onset of AIDS, coupled with new drug treatments, changed perceptions.
Increasingly it was seen as a chronic but manageable disease. The global
story was very different - by the mid-1980s it became clear that the virus had
spread, largely unnoticed, throughout the rest of the world. The nature of this
global pandemic varies from region to region, with poorer areas hit hardest. In
parts of sub-Saharan Africa nearly 1 in 10 adults carries the virus - a statistic
which is reminiscent of the spread of syphilis in parts of Europe in the 1800s.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
12 Ebola Haemorrhagic
Viral
Biological
Disease
Ebola is a highly lethal Haemorrhagic Viral Biological Disease, which has
caused at least 16 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2014.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is found in wild great apes and kills 50% to 90% of
humans infected - making it one of the deadliest diseases known to man. It is
so dangerous that it is considered to be a potential Grade A bioterrorism agent
– on a par with anthrax, smallpox, and bubonic plague. The current outbreak
of EVD has seen confirmed cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone,
countries in an area of West Africa where the disease has not previously
occurred. There were also a handful of suspected cases in neighbouring Mali,
but these patients were found to have contracted other diseases
For each epidemic, transmission was quantified in different settings (illness in
the community, hospitalization, and traditional burial) and predictive analytics
simulated various epidemic scenarios to explore the impact of medical control
interventions on an emerging epidemic. A key medical parameter was the
rapid institution of control measures. For both epidemic profiles identified,
increasing the rate of hospitalization reduced the predicted epidemic size.
Over 4000 suspected cases of EVD have been recorded, with the majority of
them in Guinea. The current outbreak has currently resulted in over 2000
deaths. These figures will continue to rise as more patients die and as test
results confirm that they were infected with Ebola.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Ebola is a highly lethal Haemorrhagic Viral Biological Disease, which has
caused at least 16 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2014.
Pandemic Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event
13 Future
Bacterial
Pandemic
Infections
Bacterial
Biological
Disease
Bacteria were most likely the real killers in the 1918 Flu Pandemic - the vast
majority of deaths in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic resulted as a result of
secondary bacterial pneumonia, caused by common upper respiratory-tract
bacteria. Less substantial data from the subsequent 1957 and 1968 Flu
pandemics are consistent with these findings. If severe pandemic influenza is
largely a problem of viral-bacterial co-pathogenesis, pandemic planning needs
to go beyond addressing the viral cause alone (influenza vaccines and
antiviral drugs). The diagnosis, prophylaxis, treatment and prevention of
secondary bacterial pneumonia - as well as stockpiling of antibiotics and
bacterial vaccines – should be high priorities for future pandemic planning.
14 Future
Viral
Pandemic
infections
Viral
Biological
Disease
What was Learned from Reconstructing the 1918 Spanish Flu Virus
Comparing pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses at the molecular level yields key
insights into pathogenesis – the way animal viruses mutate to cross species.
The availability of these two H1N1 virus genomes separated by over 90 years,
provided an unparalleled opportunity to study and recognise genetic properties
associated with virulent pandemic viruses - allowing for a comprehensive
assessment of emerging influenza viruses with human pandemic potential.
There are only four to six mutations required within the first three days of viral
infection in a new human host, to change an animal virus to become highly
virulent and infectious to human beings. Candidate viral gene pools for future
possible Human Pandemics include Anthrax, Lassa Fever, Rift Valley Fever,
EVD, SARS, MIRS, H1N1 Swine Flu (2009) and H7N9 Avian / Bat Flu (2013).
Geo-thermal Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
1 Geo-
thermal
Process
Thermal
Energy
Plate Tectonics / Continental Drift – Continental Landmass aggregation at either
the Equator or the Poles (Rodinia, Gondwanaland, Pangea etc.) – events linked
with “Snowball Earth” “Global Dessert” and “Stagnant Sea” Extinction Events.
Divergent Plate Boundaries – occur at mid-oceanic ridges, where two tectonic
plates diverge from one another to create new ocean floor. Convergent Plate
Boundaries - Subduction zones are places where two plates, usually an oceanic
plate and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the oceanic plate dives under the
continental plate forming a deep ocean trench just offshore, and Andesitic volcanic
mountain chains, usually about 90-120 kilometres inland on the continental plate
2 Geo-
thermal
Process
Thermal
Energy
Volcanic Plumes (Hot Spots) - 100 million years ago, a plume of hot rock from
the Earth’s mantle burst through the crust in what is today called Siberia. Those
eruptions raged for centuries, spewing out over a quarter million cubic miles of
basalt floods – the Siberian Traps. Then 65 million years ago, another plume of
hot rock from the Earth’s mantle burst through the crust in what is now India.
Eruptions lasted for centuries, spewing out well over a quarter million cubic miles
of lava flows – the Deccan Traps. Along with the Yucatan Peninsula Meteorite
Impact, many Geologists believe these to be a contributory factor – and a few
believe these volcanic episode to be the major cause of Extinction Events, such as
K-T, which killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Another Volcanic Plume
erupted beneath Iceland – causing America (Palisade Basalts) and Europe (Giants
Causeway) to divide, forming the Atlantic Ocean. The next candidate for flood-
basalt volcanism is Yellowstone Park – its magma chamber is filling up right now.
Volcanic Events in Antarctic Ice Cores
Volcanic Event Years of
Eruption
Years in Ice
Core
Depth in Ice
Core (m)
VEI Impact
Pinatubo 1991 1992 – 1993 0.35–0.45 6 (area evacuated by USAF)
Krakatoa 1883 1884 – 1885 16.83 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami
Coseguina 1835 1835 – 1836 20.48
Tambora 1815 1816 – 1818 21.45 7 "Year Without a Summer"
Thompson Island
(South Atlantic)
1809 1809 – 1811 21.64 Thompson Island completely
disappeared above sea level
Kuwae 1453 1453 – 1455 33.58
(Unknown) 1284 1284 – 1286 46.54
Rinjani, Lombok 1257 – 1258 1259 – 1261 48.81 7 Little Ice Age, Europe
Volcanic Cooling Events in Antarctic Ice Cores - Volcanic hotspots erupt over time with regular
periodically – producing the mid-ocean island chains such as Hawaii and Galapagos. Thermal and
debris shocks along with dust clouds that reach far into the atmosphere, releasing nitrous and sulphuric
gases, carbon dioxide and acid rains – can cause massive climate change around the globe. Flood
basalt volcanic episodes may be causes of climatic and biological change - geologists believe this a
contributory factor for the P-T Boundary Event, which killed off 90% of all the living species on Earth.
Volcanic Hotspot Black Swan Events
Black Swan Events Location / Volcanic System VEI Impact Date
Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland Icelandic Hotspot, Mid-Atlantic Ridge 4 Air Travel in North Europe 2010
Mount Pinatubo Luzon Volcanic Arc, Philippine Islands 6 (area evacuated by USAF) 1991
Mount St. Helens, United States Cascade Volcanic Arc 5 (low population / impact) 1980
Krakatoa Sunda Arc, Indonesia 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami 1883
Mount Tambora, Indonesia Lesser Sunda Islands 7 "Year Without a Summer" 1815
Kolumbo eruption, Santorini South Aegean Volcanic Arc, Greece 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami 1650
Rinjani, Lombok Lesser Sunda Islands 7 Little Ice Age, Europe 1257 / 1258
Ilopango, El Salvador Central America Volcanic Arc 6 End of Mayan Culture 536
Mount Vesuvius, Italy Eurasian/African Plate Boundary 5 Herculaenum, Pompei 79 AD
Minoan eruption at Akrotiri Santorini (Thera), Greece 7 End of Minoan Culture 1610 BC
Yellowstone Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 8 Pleistocene, Quaternary 640 ka
Henry's Fork Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 7 Pleistocene, Quaternary 1.3 Ma
Island Park Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 8 Pleistocene, Quaternary 2.1 Ma
Geo-thermal Black Swan Events
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
1 Geo-
thermal
Process
Thermal
Energy
Volcanic Plumes (Hot Spots) - "Hotspots" are the volcanic provinces thought
to be formed by volcanic mantle plumes – which are thought to be caused by
convection columns of hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary. It
has been suggested that volcanic plumes are fixed in position, and that their
thermal energy causes melting at the base of the Earths’ crust. As the tectonic
plates which form the Earths’ crust moves over hot mantle plumes, the oldest
volcano in the chain is carried further away from the plume and after a while
becomes dormant. Over time - as the Earths’ crust gradually shifts in relation to
the fixed position of the mantle plume - new volcanoes erupt in a fresh position
on the chain. The Hawaiian Islands have been formed in this manner, as well as
the Snake River Plain, with the Yellowstone Caldera – that part of the North
American plate which is currently standing above the Yellowstone mantle plume.
Volcanic hotspots erupt over time with regular periodically – producing the mid-
ocean island chains such as Hawaii and Galapagos. Thermal and debris shocks
along with dust clouds that reach far into the atmosphere, releasing nitrous and
sulphuric gases, carbon dioxide and acid rains – can cause massive climate
change around the globe. Flood basalt volcanic episodes may be causes of
climatic and biological change - geologists believe this a contributory factor for
the P-T Boundary Event, which killed off 90% of all the living species on Earth.
Volcanic Hotspot Map
1. Azores hotspot (1) 2. Balleny hotspot (2) 3. Bowie hotspot (3) 4. Caroline hotspot (4) 5. Cobb hotspot (5) 6. Darfur hotspot (6) 7. Easter hotspot (7) 8. Eifel hotspot (8) 9. Fernando hotspot (9) 10. Galápagos hotspot (10) 11. Guadalupe hotspot (11) 12. Hawaii hotspot (12) 13. Hoggar hotspot (13) 14. Iceland hotspot (14) 15. Jan Mayen hotspot (15) 16. Juan Fernández hotspot 17. Cameroon hotspot (17) 18. Canary hotspot (18) 19. Cape Verde hotspot (19) 20. Kerguelen hotspot (20) 21. Comoros hotspot (21) 22. Lord Howe hotspot (22)
Volcanic Hotspot Map
23. Louisville hotspot (23) 24. Macdonald hotspot (24) 25. Marion hotspot (25) 26. Marquesas hotspot (26) 27. Meteor hotspot (27) 28. New England hotspot (28) 29. Society hotspot (38) 30. East Australia hotspot (30) 31. Pitcairn hotspot (31) 32. Raton hotspot (32) 33. Réunion hotspot (33) 34. St. Helena hotspot (34) 35. Samoa hotspot (35) 36. San Felix hotspot (36) 37. Socorro hotspot (37) 38. Tahiti hotspot (38) 39. Tasmanid hotspot (39) 40. Tibesti hotspot (40) 41. Trindade hotspot (41) 42. Tristan hotspot (42) 43. Vema hotspot (43) 44. Yellowstone hotspot (44)
Yellowstone Caldera Map
Volcanic Hot-spots
Volcanic hotspots periodically
erupt - producing thermal and
debris shocks along with dust
clouds that reach far into the
upper atmosphere, releasing
nitrous and sulphuric gases,
carbon dioxide and acid rains -
in turn causing massive climate
change around the globe.
Yellowstone Caldera, Henry's
Fork Caldera, Island Park
Caldera and Heise Volcanic
Field all share a common
magma chamber – beneath the
Yellowstone National Park.
A future candidate for hot-spot
volcanism is quietly building up
right now – with the magma
source beneath Yellowstone
Park filling up with lava - ready
for the next super-volcano......
Geo-thermal Black Swan Event Types
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
2 Geo-
thermal
Process
Thermal
Energy
Divergent Plate Boundaries - at the mid-oceanic ridges, two tectonic plates
diverge from one another. New oceanic crust is being formed by fluid basaltic
magma slowly cooling and solidifying. The crust is very thin at mid-oceanic
ridges due to the pull of the tectonic plates. The release of pressure due to the
thinning of the crust leads to adiabatic expansion, and the partial melting of the
mantle causing volcanism and creating new oceanic crust. Most divergent plate
boundaries are at the bottom of the oceans, therefore most volcanic activity is
submarine, forming new seafloor. Black smokers or deep sea vents are an
example of this kind of volcanic activity. Where the mid-oceanic ridge is above
sea-level, volcanic islands are formed from basalt magma, for example, Iceland.
3 Geo-
thermal
Process
Thermal
Energy
Convergent Plate Boundaries - Subduction zones are places where two
plates, usually an oceanic plate and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the
oceanic plate subducts, or submerges under the continental plate forming a
deep ocean trench just offshore. In a process called flux melting, water released
from the subducting plate lowers the melting temperature of the overlying
mantle wedge, creating magma. This magma tends to be very viscous due to its
high silica content, so often does not reach the surface and cools at depth.
When it does reach the surface, a volcano is formed. As the magma is both
viscous (silica) and gaseous (water, carbon dioxide, sulphates and nitrates) –
andesitic magma eruptions are very explosive. Typical examples for this kind of
andesitic volcano are found in the volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire. (the
Rockies and the Andes), and the Mediterranean Basin (Mount Etna).
Divergent Plate Boundaries
World map showing the divergent plate boundaries (OSR – Oceanic Spreading Ridges)
Divergent Plate Boundaries
Convergent Plate Boundaries
• A convergent plate boundary is where two or more tectonic plates collide with each other creating massive crustal movements. The Himalayas were formed by such a collision. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common near convergent boundaries as a result of displacement - pressure, friction, and crustal plate material melting deep in the mantle,
• These diagrams illustrates some differences between the three types of subduction zone: -
1. Continental crust moves under a continental plate. The leading edge of the continental plate margin thrusts up into a horse-shoe shaped mountain range. This forms a high plateau. The Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau are a perfect example of this.
2. Oceanic crust dives under a continental plate. A deep ocean trench forms at the coast, and an arc of mountainous volcanoes forms inland – as seen along the western edge of much of the Americas.
3. Oceanic crust dives under an oceanic plate – with crustal material melting deep in the mantle to form arc-shaped volcanic island chains.
• Case Study • Earthquakes
• Earthquakes are created, for example, in orogenic (mountain building) events, when
adjacent stratigraphic units are laterally compressed and fold over one another
(thrust faulting), or when a single stratigraphic unit situated between two parallel
geological faults becomes laterally stretched and the unit in the fault zone slips down
in relation to the fault planes (normal faulting), or when either Continental or Oceanic
Plate Margins are stuck against each by the forces of friction. Under cumulative
stress, static friction forces are eventually overcome – the Plate Margins suddenly
become mobile and detached, moving relative to each other as the built-up stress is
relieved (Plate Tectonics) – releasing massive amounts of energy in the process.
• Over time stress builds up at the fault-line boundary, eventually overcoming friction
causing the adjacent stratigraphic units to “unzip” dramatically – slip and slide over,
along or away (mid-ocean ridge) from each other - releasing a sequence of energetic
tremors or waves. P-waves oscillate up-and-down, whilst S-waves oscillate from
side-to-side. The P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly through the
earth in a related and integrated series of waves - but travelling at different speeds.
The first waves to arrive at an observer of the event are vertical (up / down)
disturbances (P-waves) which are followed moments later by a horizontal (side-to-
side) disturbance (S-waves) which have increased magnitude and intensity.
Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards
A Trigger
A
Plate Tectonics
B Factor
B
Pacific Earthquake
Warning System
Japan is an Andesitic Volcanic Island Chain on the
Asian Continental Plate 100k from the Pacific Plate
Japanese Pacific Earthquake Warning System was developed to give early warning of events
C Trigger
C
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
D
Related Risk Example – Pacific Earthquake Event March 11, 2011
The Asian Continental Plate slides over the Pacific Plate
Risk Event
Mitigation Factor
The Continental Plate rises 10m, displacing a 10m water
column and the whole of Japan moves 3m towards the east while the east cost of Japan falls 1m relative to sea level
Risk Event
E
P-waves travelling at 800km / hr arrive in Tokyo Earthquake Monitoring Centre
Risk Event
F
S-waves travelling at 400km / hr arrive in Tokyo Earthquake Monitoring Centre
Trigger D
Pacific Earthquake
Event – 11.03.2011
At 5.46am GMT (2.46pm in Japan) a massive
earthquake occurred, registering 9.0 on the
Richter scale – followed over the next few
days by hundreds of smaller after-shocks
Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards
Pacific Earthquake Event March 11, 2011
• Case Study • Volcanic Eruptions
• • CASE STUDY • A Pyroclastic Volcanic Eruption begins with a series of linked
and integrated events which have a common origin or source - in turn generating a
sequence of waves in ascending orders of magnitude. Pyroclastic Volcanic
Eruptions begin with a sequence of Random Events - in this case, it is a sequence
of Earthquakes somewhere deep under an Mountain Chain which is built up from
Andesitic Volcanoes – such as the Andes Mountain Chain.
• The Andes Mountains are parallel with the Pacific Oceanic Plate subduction zone –
an area where the Pacific Oceanic Plate plunges under the South American
Continental Margin. Sediment, sea water and organic remains from the Ocean floor
are carried down towards earth’s mantle and heat up as the Oceanic Plate plunges
deeper into the Earth’s Mantle. Liquids and gases released by this heating cause
the rocks in the Earth’s Mantle to melt, turning from a plastic semi-solid into a liquid.
This liquid then rises through the Earth’s crust and travels towards the surface,
collecting in pools forming Magma Chambers - before finally breaking at the surface
through and erupting as Volcanic Magma.
• Case Study • Volcanic Eruptions
• When adjacent Continental and Oceanic Plates are stuck together, over time they can
periodically unzip and slide over each other – thus Tectonic Earthquakes are created
causing a sequence of tremors or waves. P-waves oscillate up-and-down, whilst S-waves
oscillate from side-to-side. The P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly
through the earth in a related and integrated series of waves - but travelling at different
speeds. The first waves to arrive at an observer of the event are vertical (up / down)
disturbances (P-waves – 800 km/hr) which are followed moments later by a horizontal
(side-to-side) disturbance (S-waves – 400 km/hr) with increased magnitude and intensity.
• P-waves travel fastest through the earth so they arrive first, as Weak Signals. The faster
P-waves are followed by slower but more dramatic and intense S-waves – Shock Waves –
Strong Signals now indicating what is about to follow. Next in the sequence is the Wild
Card Event. As the volcano erupts, its ash cloud builds up high into the atmosphere.
Finally the Black Swan Event arrives. As the volcano continues to erupt, the ash column
can no longer support its own weight. It collapses in onto itself and plunges down the
slopes of the Volcano. Surging relentlessly downhill, the catastrophic disturbance of the
Pyroclastic wave covers the landscape with layers of suffocating, burning hot ash and
destroys all life in a black cloud covering over everything that lies before it. This is, for
example, what happened in 63 AD when superheated magma beneath Vesuvius erupted
and covered Herculaneum and Pompeii with over twenty metres of rocks and ash.
• Case Study • Tsunami Events
• • CASE STUDY • A Tsunami Event consists of a sequence of linked and integrated
waves in ascending orders of magnitude which have a common origin or source – in this
case, the Random Events begin with a series of chaotic and disruptive Earthquakes
somewhere offshore in a subduction zone at a Continental and Oceanic Plate Margin.
• Earthquakes are formed as the Continental and Oceanic Plates stick together – and then
unzip, causing a sequence of random and chaotic tremors. The P and S waves from the
Earthquake propagate rapidly through the earth as a related and integrated series of
waves travelling at different speeds – the first to arrive are vertical (up / down) wave
disturbances (P-waves) - which can travel directly through the Earths crust, mantle and
core – which are followed by slower but more powerful horizontal (side-to-side) waves (S-
waves) – accompanied by further increases in wave magnitude and intensity – which can
only travel through the Earths crust and mantle, and so “bounces” around the liquid core.
• To sum up, the P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly through the earth in
a related and integrated series of wave forms travelling at different speeds – the first to
arrive are vertical (up / down) disturbances (P-waves) which are followed by a horizontal
(side-to-side) disturbance (S-waves) – with further increased magnitude and intensity.
• Case Study • Tsunami Events
• P-waves travel fastest through the earth at 800 km/hr - so they arrive first as Weak
Signals – subliminal messages. These faster P-waves are followed by slower but more
dramatic and intense S-waves at 400 km/hr – these are the Shock Waves - Strong
Signals which are now a firm indication of what is about to come. The next in the
sequence of waves is the first Ocean Wave – up to 10 m in height and 100 km in length
- which arrives at the coastline travelling at 300 km/hr. The sea initially draws rapidly
away from the coast so the sea level dramatically falls as the edge of the Tsunami
Wave withdraws water away from the shore – this is the final warning, the Wild Card
Event – this is the last window of opportunity to make good your escape to higher
ground – before finally the Tsunami Wave crashes over the land, sweeping all away .
• The last Wave in the sequence - the Tsunami Wave - crashes over the land, sweeping
everything before it as a catastrophic Black Swan Event. The chaotic and radically
disruptive Tsunami Wave travels through the ocean waters at hundreds of miles per
hour and arrives as the final Black Swan Event. Surging relentlessly inland, threatening
life and shifting boats, buildings and scenery – the catastrophic disturbance of the
Tsunami Wave, a wall of water, arrives as a relentless black wave swallowing up
everything as it sweeps inland carrying with it everything that lies in its path. This type
of Black Swan Event has already occurred twice this century – first, the Indian Ocean
Boxing Day Tsunami and secondly the Pacific Ocean Japanese Tsunami.
Related Risk Example – Japanese Tsunami Event March 11, 2011
Trigger D
Pacific Earthquake
Event – 11.03.2011
Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards
G
Factor E
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
H
The Continental Plate rises 10m, displacing a 10m water
column and the whole of Japan moves 3m towards the east while the east cost of Japan falls 1m relative to sea level
Risk Event
I
Japanese Coast-guard Vessel encounters the first 1m Tsunami Wave far out at sea
Risk Event
J
East Coast Flood Defences are overwhelmed by 10m Tsunami
Trigger F
Japanese Tsunami
Event – 11.03.2011
Stress builds up between Eurasian and Pacific Plates
K
E Trigger
K
Narita
Flooding
Disaster
B Trigger
I
Sendai
Flooding
Disaster
C Trigger
H
Fukushima Reactor
Disaster
D Trigger
G
L
Japanese Coastal
Flood Defences A
Trigger J
Fukushima
Flooding
Disaster
Miyagi
Flooding
Disaster
At 5.46am GMT (2.46pm in Japan) a massive
earthquake registered 9.0 on the Richter
scale, triggers a huge tsunami which
devastates Japan's eastern coastline,
Mitigation Factor
Japanese flood defences were re-built @5m above Sea level after the previous Tsunami event in 1967
• Case Study • Volcanic Eruptions
• • CASE STUDY • A Pyroclastic Volcanic Eruption begins with a series of linked
and integrated events which have a common origin or source - in turn generating a
sequence of waves in ascending orders of magnitude. Pyroclastic Volcanic
Eruptions begin with a sequence of Random Events - in this case, it is a sequence
of Earthquakes somewhere deep under an Mountain Chain which is built up from
Andesitic Volcanoes – such as the Andes Mountain Chain.
• The Andes Mountains are parallel with the Pacific Oceanic Plate subduction zone –
an area where the Pacific Oceanic Plate plunges under the South American
Continental Margin. Sediment, sea water and organic remains from the Ocean floor
are carried down towards earth’s mantle and heat up as the Oceanic Plate plunges
deeper into the Earth’s Mantle. Liquids and gases released by this heating cause
the rocks in the Earth’s Mantle to melt, turning from a plastic semi-solid into a liquid.
This liquid then rises through the Earth’s crust and travels towards the surface,
collecting in pools forming Magma Chambers - before finally breaking at the surface
through and erupting as Volcanic Magma.
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• On 27 August 1883, after a day of alarming volcanic activity, Krakatoa (an uninhabited
island in the Sunda Straits between Java and Sumatra, the remains of which are now
widely known as Anak Krakatau) erupted with a force more than ten thousand times
that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima (Thornton 1). Dutch officials in Java
reported the eruption around the world via undersea telegraph cables.
• This explosion, the loudest noise in historic times, was heard thousands of miles away
and instruments around the world recorded changes in air pressure and sea level. In
the months that followed, newspapers and journals printed vivid accounts of the
spectacular sunsets caused by fine particles that the volcano spewed into the upper
atmosphere and that circled the globe, gradually spreading further north and south.
• Rogier Diederik Marius Verbeek, a Dutch Mining Engineer, published his findings in
the Krakatoa Journal – the first scientific study of a volcanic eruption. Captain Johan
Lindemann, of the ship Governor General Loudon sailing in the Sunda Strait, gave
an eye-witness account of how he survived both the eruption and the tsunami. The
Royal Society formed a special Krakatoa Committee to collect these articles, other
eye-witness testimony, and more precise scientific data (such as barograph readings of
air pressure, temperature records and a series of sketches of the dust cloud) and
analyse the material meticulously in order to publish a thorough report of their findings.
Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event, 27 August 1883
Sunda Strait Shipping Disaster –
“Governor General Loudon” – ship
saved by action of Captain Lindemann,,
“Berouw” – ran aground 1km inland on
Sumatra - ship and crew total loss
Krakatoa
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• In 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatoa erupted without warning. Within a day the
island had virtually disappeared in the loudest explosion ever recorded. The eruption
generated a succession of massive tsunamis that wiped out the Indonesian coastline
and killed over 30,000 people. These waves were three times higher than those seen
on Boxing Day in 2004. And over thirty miles from the volcano, across open ocean,
thousands more were killed by hot ash. The wife of Controller Beyerinck described her
experience on the morning of August 27, when the outermost edges of a pyroclastic
flow enveloped the Sumatra village of Ketimbang
• "Suddenly, it became pitch dark. The last thing I saw was the ash being pushed up through the cracks in the floorboards, like a fountain. I turned to my husband and heard him say in dispair ' Where is the knife?' . . . I will cut all our wrists and then we shall be released from our suffering sooner.' The knife could not be found. I felt a heavy pressure, throwing me to the ground. Then it seemed as if all the air was being sucked away and I could not breathe. . . . I felt people rolling over me . . . No sound came from my husband or children . . . I remember thinking, I want to . . . go outside . . . . but I could not straighten my back . . . I tottered, doubled up, to the door . . . I forced myself through the opening . . . I tripped and fell. I realized the ash was hot and I tried to protect my face with my hands. The hot bite of the pumice pricked like needles . . . Without thinking, I walked hopefully forward. Had I been in my right mind, I would have understood what a dangerous thing it was to . . . plunge into the hellish darkness.....”
Krakatoa
Krakatoa – prior to 1883 Event
Sunda Strait Shipping
Disaster – “Governor
General Loudon” – ship
saved by action of
Captain Lindemann,,
“Berouw” – ran aground
1km inland on Sumatra -
ship and crew total loss
Krakatoa Explosion
Event – 27.11.1883
Krakatoa
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• Several surveys and mariners' charts were made of Krakotoa,
but the islands were little explored or studied. An 1854 map of
the islands was used in an English chart, which shows some
difference from a Dutch chart made in 1874. In July 1880,
Rogier Verbeek, a Dutch Mining Engineer, made an official
survey of the islands but he was only allowed to spend a few
hours there. He was able to collect samples from several
places, and his investigation proved important in judging the
geological impact of the 1883 eruption
• For over a century geologists have been hard pressed to
explain why so many people died – but through field studies,
experiments and analysis of historical records they think they
have finally found the answers - hugely important because
volcanic activity has returned. Since the 1883 eruption, in
1927, a new island volcano, called Anak Krakatau ("Child of
Krakatoa"), has formed in the caldera, and is now grown to
over half the size of the original volcano. Geologists are
certain that Anak Krakatoa will erupt again. Of considerable
interest to volcanologists is the question of how and when.....
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• The magma chamber beneath Krakatoa could have become over-pressurised by volatile
saturation and/or a magma mixing event - which may have triggered the 1883 eruption of
Krakatau. From the beginning of activity on 20 May to the onset of the 22–24 hour-long
climactic phase on 26–27 August, Krakatau produced a discontinuous series of vulcanian
to sub-plinian eruptions. Based on contemporary descriptions, the intensity of these
phases may previously have been underestimated.
• Very rapid displacement of the sea by pyroclastic flows remains the best explanation for
the series of catastrophic sea waves that devastated the shores of the Sunda Straits,
with the last and largest tsunami coinciding with the slumping of half of Rakata cone into
the actively forming caldera, perhaps during a period of great pyroclastic flow production.
• The large audible explosions recorded on 27 August may have been the rapid ejection of
large pulses of magma that collapsed to form pyroclastic flows in the ignimbrite-forming
phase. Co-ignimbrite ash columns rising in the atmosphere immediately after the
generation of each major pyroclastic flow may have contributed to the magnitude of the
air waves. A reappraisal of the eruption in the light of this, in conjunction with the
pressure (air wave) and tide gauge (tsunami) records from Jakarta, suggests that the
relationship between the latter two has been oversimplified in previous studies.
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• The most realistic estimate of eruptive volume (magnitude) is about 10 km3 of dacitic
magma. The climax of the eruption began at 1:00 pm on 26 August with a plinian
phase which led into a 5-hour-long ignimbrite-producing phase. Caldera collapse most
probably occurred near the end of the eruption on 27 August, precluding large scale
magma-seawater interaction as a major influence on the eruption column and
characteristics of the pyroclastic deposits.
• Although no one is known to have been killed as a result of the initial explosion, the
tsunamis it generated had disastrous results, killing some 36,000 people and wiping
out a number of settlements, including Telok Batong in Sumatra, and Sirik and
Semarang in Java. An additional 1,000 or so people died from superheated volcanic
ash which literally rushed across the surface of the ocean. Ships as far away as South
Africa rocked as tsunamis hit them, and the bodies of victims were found floating in the
ocean for weeks after the event. There are even numerous documented reports of
groups of human skeletons floating across the Indian Ocean on rafts of volcanic
pumice and washing up on the east coast of Africa up to a year after the eruption.
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• The 1883 eruption was amongst the most severe volcanic explosions in modern times
(VEI of 6, equivalent to 200 megatons of TNT - by way of comparison, the biggest bomb
ever made by man, Tsar Bomba, is around 50 megatons). Concussive air waves from
the explosions travelled seven times around the world, and the sky was darkened for
days afterwards. The island of Rakata itself largely ceased to exist as over two thirds of
its exposed land area was blown to dust, and its surrounding ocean floor was drastically
altered. Two nearby islands, Verlaten and Lang, had their land masses increased.
Volcanic ash continues to be a significant part of the geological composition of these
islands.
• It has been suggested that an eruption of Krakatoa may have been responsible for the
global climate changes of 535-536. Additionally, in recent times, it has been argued that
it was this eruption which created the islands of Verlaten and Lang (remnants of the
original) and the beginnings of Rakata - all indicators of that early Krakatoa's caldera
size, and not the long-believed eruption of c. 416, for which conclusive evidence does
not exist.
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• The cataclysmic blasts of August 27 generated mountainous tsunamis, up to 40 m tall, that ravaged coastlines across the Sunda Straits. Many of the closest islands were completely submerged. After first being overwhelmed by massive pyroclastic flows Sebesi Island northeast of Krakatau, was inundated by a series of mammoth sea waves. The tsunami waves stripped away all vegetation, washed ~3000 people out to sea, and destroyed all signs of human occupation. Although located at seemingly safe distance, some 80 km east of the Sunda Straits, the low-lying Thousand Islands were buried by at least 2 m of seawater and their inhabitants had to save themselves by climbing trees.
• Eyewitness accounts of the massive waves came from passengers of the Governor General Loudon, who survived the tsunami wave only through the heroic efforts of its Captain, Johan Lindemann. The ship was anchored in Lampong Bay, near the village of Telok Betong when the first of several waves arrived on Monday morning: -
• "Suddenly we saw a gigantic wave of prodigious height advancing toward the seashore with considerable speed. Immediately, the crew . . .managed to set sail in face of the imminent danger; the ship had just enough time to meet with the wave from the front. The ship met the wave head on and the Loudon was lifted up with a dizzying rapidity and made a formidable leap... The ship rode at a high angle over the crest of the wave and down the other side. The wave continued on its journey toward land, and the benumbed crew watched as the sea in a single sweeping motion consumed the town. There, where an instant before had lain the town of Telok Betong, nothing remained but the open sea."
Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event
• Tsunami travel times from Krakatau to the Indonesian Coast (Java and Sumatra)
probably varied more than hitherto thought and there need not be a simple correlation
between the initiation times of the explosions and the arrival of the tsunamis. There is
some new evidence, however, that tsunamis in the Sunda Straits and vicinity were
probably influenced by coupling with the steam front and air waves generated by the
Pyroclastic Clouds as they skimmed across the sea. Various hypotheses about the
cause of the tsunamis and explosions are reviewed and it is concluded that the cause
of both is most likely related to the sudden emission of large pulses of magma
interacting with sea water when Krakatoa failed (similar in manner to St Helens in
1981) collapsing the volcano into the sea – which led to formation of the Krakatau
ignimbrite. Some future investigation of sea-floor deposits in the vicinity of Krakatoa
on the floor of the Sunda Strait will inform this debate.....
• The atmospheric dust from the Krakatoa eruption circulated in the upper atmosphere
for years – contributing to the “year without a summer”. The explosion produced
spectacular sunsets throughout the world for many months afterwards, as a result of
sunlight reflected from suspended dust particles ejected by the volcano high into
Earth's atmosphere. Interestingly, researchers in 2004 proposed the idea that the
blood-red sky shown in Edvard Munch's famous 1893 painting “The Scream” is an
accurate depiction of the sky over Norway after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.
Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards
A Trigger
A
Plate Tectonics
The Philippine Plate slides over the Indian Ocean Plate
C Trigger
B
Inter-connected Risk
Risk Event
Risk Event
D
Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Eruption Event, 20 May - 26 August 1883
The magma chamber beneath Krakatoa becomes over-pressurised
by volatile saturation and/or a magma mixing event - which may have contributed to or triggered the 1883 eruption of Krakatau
Risk Event
Risk Event
E
From the beginning of volcanic activity on 20 May
to the onset of the 22–24 hour-long climactic phase
26–27 August, Krakatau produced a discontinuous series of vulcanian to sub-plinian eruption events
Risk Event
F
Caldera collapse most probably occurred near the end of
the eruption on 27 August, precluding large scale magma-
seawater interaction as a major influence on the eruption column and characteristics of the pyroclastic deposits
Trigger G
Krakatoa Eruption
Event – 20.05.1883
26 August 1883 was a day of alarming volcanic
activity on Krakatoa Island in the Sunda Strait
Krakatoa Explosion
Event – 27.11.1883
26 August 1883 was a day of alarming volcanic activity on Krakatoa Island in the Sunda Strait
G
Trigger F
“Year without
a summer”
Climate Event
Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Disaster Event, 27 August 1883
Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards
Trigger F
Krakatoa Tsunami
Event – 27.11.1883
E Trigger
E
Sumatra
Pyroclastic
Disaster B
Trigger B
Java
Flooding
Disaster
C Trigger
C
Sunda Strait
Shipping
Disaster
D Trigger
D
L
A Trigger
A
Sumatra
Flooding
Disaster
Java
Pyroclastic
Disaster
On 27 August 1883, after a day of alarming volcanic activity,
Krakatoa (an uninhabited island in the Sunda Strait between
Java and Sumatra, the remains of which are now widely known
as Anak Krakatau) - erupted with a force more than ten
thousand times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima
H
Risk Event
EI
P-waves travelling at 800km / hr cross Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra
Risk Event
S-waves travelling at 400km / hr cross Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra
Trigger G
Krakatoa Explosion
Event – 27.11.1883
J
Risk Event
E
Pyroclastic Cloud travelling at 500km / hr cross the Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra
Risk Event
Tsunami wave travelling at 300km / hr crosses Sunda Straight and arrives in Java and Sumatra
Trigger F
Krakatoa Pyroclastic
Event – 27.11.1883
L
E Factor
F
“Year without
a summer”
Climate Event
Pyroclastic Cloud crosses
Sunda Straight and drives 1st Tsunami Wave Front
Sunda Strait Shipping
Disaster – “Governor General
Loudon” – ship saved by
action of Captain Lindemann,,
“Berouw” – ran aground on
Sumatra - ship + crew total loss
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Human Survival • "Humanity's survival does not depend on reducing differences to a common identity, but
on learning to live creatively with differences."—Anonymous
• Humans are a resilient species – but survival is not inevitable. If Earth does not attain Type III status in time, a number of the following scenarios could pose a severe challenge - the least problematic being an asteroid impact or global nuclear war. Humanity may survive and even recover from a significant asteroid or comet impact with Earth, regardless of whether or not governments are alert enough to take precautions which offer any significant survival rate. An event like this will not entirely wipe out human existence, only reduce population numbers and significantly set back technological advancement. Human evolution will not have to start over again. Civilization will still have the opportunity to build upon any remaining technology.
• There is a clear and present danger that a Global-level Extinction Event will one day also remove all life on Earth. Major Global-level Extinction Events could be caused by: -
1. Near-by Gamma-ray bursts from dying stars in distant Supernova events or Solar Flares - mass coronal ejections - from various Suns in our own local stellar group.
2. Plate Tectonics / Continental Drift – aggregation of Continental Landmass at either the Equator or the Poles (Rodinia, Gondwanaland, Pangea etc.).is associated with “Snowball Earth” “Global Dessert” and “Stagnant Sea” Extinction Events.
3. Massive Meteorite or Comet strikes on the planet surface – thought to have contributed to the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary Event.
4. Major Volcanic Events – the Siberian Traps and Deccan Traps were associated with the Permian-Triassic Boundary Event and the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary Event
5. Climate Change – a Global Ice Age was associated with many of the Precambrian Extinction Events.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
1 Hyperspace
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
The Collapsing Universe—the Universe could collapse into an internal or
external void, spreading at the speed of light and swallowing everything in
its path. Possible scenarios might include our own universe (membrane)
colliding with another in hyperspace, or collapsing into a different dimension
set (our six-dimensional companion Universe) or into a super-massive Black
Hole - one large enough to destabilize the entire structure of the Cosmos.
Has a Collapsing Universe happened before – and could it happen again?
According to String Theory, our Universe began as a ten-dimensional
membrane – which collapsed into the familiar four-dimensional Space-time
Continuum of our own Universe – along with our companion universe which
contains the remaining set of six further dimensions, all curled up together.
Scenarios for this catastrophe might be found in the ripping and collapsing of
our four-dimensional Universe into another dimension-set (for example, the
six additional dimensions locked into our invisible companion universe) - or
collision with and absorption into, an external universe (another membrane).
Astrophysicists argue much about this Future Scenario and its part in the
Standard Model for the lifecycle and evolution of the Universe - especially in
relation to scenarios for possible conditions prior to the “Big Bang”.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
2 Singularity
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
The Killer Strangelet – a Particle accelerator accident – the Universe
could collapse into an artificially created void, spreading at the speed of light
and swallowing everything in its path. Commentators have speculated that
physicists could accidentally cause this void in a Particle accelerator
experiment which went disastrously wrong, inadvertently creating an
unstable particle – the Killer Strangelet – which quickly collapses into a
most unwelcome mini-black hole. This viewpoint is somewhat speculative –
many Physicists maintain there is little to substantiate this scenario, which is
based on little more than science-fiction - as it would require a lot more
energy to effect than we currently muster in particle experiments on earth.
3 Singularity
Event
Quantum
Dynamics
Black Hole suddenly appears in the Solar System – swallowing up the sun
and planets - thus causing the end of the Solar System as we know it.....
4 Orbital
Disruption
Event
Gravity
Wave
Rogue black holes—it is estimated there are about 10 million black holes in
the Milky Way alone. The real threat is not that one would swallow the Solar
System, but pass close by and disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it
out of orbit into deep space – to become a cold, lifeless wandering planet
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
4 Orbital
Disruption
Event
Gravity
Wave
Cosmic Wanderers - Colliding Galaxies— Andromeda, our nearest Galaxy,
is about 250 million light years away and is on a collision course with the Milky
Way. The real threat here is not that the Solar System would be swallowed up
by another Solar System - but that a rogue star could pass close by and disrupt
Earth’s orbit sufficiently to knock it out of orbit and into deep space – or even
hurl our own Solar System out of position towards the edge of the new Galaxy.
Rogue black holes — it is estimated there are about 10 million black holes in
the Milky Way alone. The real threat is not that one would swallow the Solar
System, but pass close by and disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it out
into deep space. Wandering Stars — it is also estimated there are about 10
million Wandering Stars in the Milky Way, which could also pass close by and
disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it out into deep space. This has
happened before – early in the Earth’s history a close encounter with a rogue
Wandering Star disrupted the proto planetary orbits – hurling the Gas Giant
Plants away from the Sun, creating the Earth / Moon System, the Kuyper Belt –
a rubble zone and source of meteors where another rocky planet should be
between Mars and Jupiter – and the Oort Cloud, an icy frozen rubble zone far
beyond the planetary orbits, now the main source of icy asteroids and comets.
5 Impact
Event
Gravitation
Attraction
Wandering Planets — it is further estimated there could be another 10 million
exo-planets - expelled from their parent Solar System and are now wandering
freely around our galaxy in deep space. This has happened before – early in
Earths history, proto-planets Earth and Thea collided to form the Earth / Moon.
Based on data from the Hubble Space Telescope, the Milky Way galaxy and Andromeda galaxy are predicted to distort each other with tidal pull in 3.75 billion years, as shown in this illustration.
Andromeda v. Milky Way
• Andromeda is approaching us at more than 250,000 miles per hour – but it will take 4 billion years before it strikes the Milky Way.
• Computer simulations derived from Hubble's data show that it will take an additional two billion years after the encounter for the interacting galaxies to completely merge under the tug of gravity and reshape into the form of a single elliptical galaxy similar to the kind more commonly seen locally in the universe.
• Although the galaxies will plough into each other, stars inside each galaxy are so far apart that they will not collide with other stars during the encounter. However, the stars will be thrown into different orbits around the new galactic centre. Simulations show that our solar system will probably be tossed much further out from the galactic core than it is today.
The Aftermath: Following the collision of the two galaxies, a countless number of stars will be sent spinning into space as
Andromeda and the Milky Way lose their previous forms
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
6 Impact
Event
Gravitational
Attraction
Asteroid or comet impact – the odds of an asteroid or comet impact on the
Earth depend on the size of the Object. An Object approximately 15 feet in
diameter hits the Earth once every several months; 35 feet every 10 years; 60
feet every 100 years; 200 feet, or size of the Tunguska impact, every 200 years;
350 feet every several thousand years; 1,000 feet every 50,000 years; six tenths
of a mile every 500,000 years; and 5 to 6 miles across every 100 million years.
Any comet or asteroid five miles or over in diameter striking the planet would be
catastrophic for life on Earth, creating an extreme Extinction-level Event (ELE).
During early Geological Time, during the Pre-Cambrian Epoch - the Hadean
Period ended with a Late Heavy Bombardment from space – the impact craters
may still be seen on the surface of the Moon and Mars.
Mass extinction due to Impact Events such as these take place once every 26
million years or so, and may have something to do with the Solar System’s orbit
around the Milky Way (every 250 my). Some Astrophysicists have suggested
that the orbit of the Solar System passes through the Galactic plane accretion
disc once every 125 my. Astrophysicists have speculated that the Kuyper belt,
between Mars and Jupiter, contains asteroids meteor-forming bodies – and the
Oort Cloud, containing Planetoids such as Pluto, thought to exist beyond the
orbit of Neptune may periodically be disturbed by Gravity Waves from nearby
Supernova events, or by close passage to objects from our own Local Stellar
Group when the Solar System reaches specific positions orbiting the Galaxy.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event
7 Radiation
Event
Gamma
Rays
Supernova Events and Gamma ray Bursts—are the most energetic events in
the universe – Supernova Events are as a result of the collapse of megastars
and Gamma ray bursts possibly a result of the collision and merger of two
collapsed stars. At 1,000 light years away, any Gamma ray burst would appear
as an intense flash, as bright as the Sun. The next thing that we would notice after
the initial bright burst, is the sky turning a beautiful shade of Violet – accompanied
by a dancing bright blue-green Aurora effect as the radiation from such a star
burst interacted with the atmosphere, creating nitrogen oxides that would begin to
consume the ozone layer. Sirius, the Dog Star in the constellation Canis Major is
a Red Giant located within our own local star cluster which one day experience a
Supernova event – and thus presents a real and present danger to life on Earth.
As a result, radiation from the Sun penetrating the atmosphere would eventually
destroy all life. Gamma ray bursts currently observed by astronomers are very
distant, implying rarity – about one per galaxy per hundred years. The next
candidate for a Gamma ray burst in our home galaxy, the Milky Way, is the Red
Giant Betelgeuse in Orion – which Astrophysicists believe will go Supernova
within 500 years. As Betelgeuse is only 500 light years away from us – this may
already have happened and the light from this event is still travelling towards us.
Betelgeuse has lost 10% of its radiance over the last decade – as it shrinks and
begins to collapse into its own core – before rebounding in a massive Supernova.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Black Swan Event
8 Coronal
Mass
Ejection
Event
Nuclear
Fusion
Giant solar flares—or coronal mass ejections. Within a few hours, a mega
super-flare from the Sun would fry Earth and disintegrate the ozone layer.
Many observers believe that such an event is unlikely, since there is no
direct evidence to suggest this has happened in the past 3.7 billion years.
Others have suggested that Giant solar flares might have been associated
with previous mass-extinction events – particularly the PTB Event.
9 Electro-
magnetic
Event
Magnetic
Force
Reversal of Earth’s magnetic field—has not happened for about 780,000
years. Without the Earths magnetic stability, particle storms and cosmic rays
from the Sun and energetic subatomic particles from deep space would
begin to erode and even strip off the atmosphere as a whole – not just the
ozone layer – as has happened in the past on Mars.
10 Biotech
Disease
Event
Viruses
and Germs
Biotech disaster—scientists continuously create new species through
genetic engineering. Such tampering could backfire and have an adverse
effect on unintended consequences to other species. The misuse of
biotechnology, such as a terrorist groups creating and releasing airborne
virulent strains of Anthrax, Bubonic Plague, Ebola, Flue or HIV – to which
the Human population has no natural resistance - could kill off everyone on
the earth
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Black Swan Event
11 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Predation
Invasion and Conquest — not likely, but anything is possible given enough time
and unimaginable motives. An advanced alien civilization might view humanity as
hostile, or as a technological quantum accident waiting to happen on a universal
scale. Perhaps we have something that they want or need.
“Kill Moment” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a civilisation with superior
technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe, William the
Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish conquistadores meet
Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and South America, Cowboys v.
Indians across the plains of North America – are just a few past examples.
12 Alien
Contact
Event
Biological
Disease
Global Pandemic— If the balance of people coexisting with viruses and germs
gets out of control on a massive scale, contagious diseases could kill off
humanity. Contact with a foreign civilization or alien population and their bio-
cloud - carrying parasites and contagious diseases, leading to pandemics to
which the human population being exposed has developed little or no immunity.
“Ill Moment” – Examples include the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in
Europe from Asia, Spanish Explorers sailing up the River Amazon and spreading
Smallpox to Amazonian Basin Indians from the Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture
and Columbian Sailors returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from the New
World. The worst disease episode in history was the Spanish Flu Pandemic -
carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great War – this virus killed
more people than died in all the military action during the whole of WWI.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Black Swan Event
13 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Human
Impact
on Eco-
system
Ecosystem collapse—Global Massive Change. Certain species (insect
pollinators and insect pollinated plants) could die off under environmental
change pressure and so have a profound impact on humanity as all life on the
planet is connected in a living ecosystem.
Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental
support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural
resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing
causing catastrophic ecological damage and resulting in climatic change – for
example, the Easter Island culture, the de-population of upland moors and
highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat
from northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances
and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and
sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates and the current sub-Saharan
de-forestation and subsequent desertification by semi-nomadic pastoralists
14 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Human
Impact
on Eco-
system
FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW -
Food, Energy, Water) and increased competition to obtain those scarce
resources begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population
levels will continue expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings
by the middle of this century – then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion –
slowly recovering and stabilising out again at a sustainable population of about 1
billion human beings by the end of this century.
Extinction-level Black Swan Events
Type Force Black Swan Event
15 Global
Massive
Change
Event
Human
Impact on
Eco-
system
Environmental toxins — Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own
ecological and environmental support systems, for example, intensive
industry and agriculture causing the exhaustion and pollution of all natural
resources. Shale Gas Fracking chemicals, industrial and agronomy pollutants
and pesticides, along with various bio-toxins could spell the end for humanity
if any of them were to escape out of control and spread into the Eco-system.
16 Tech
Disaster
Event
Robotics Nanotechnology disaster— autonomous nanotechnology De-construction
micro-robots could escape from their confines after an industrial accident and
spread throughout the Earths’ biosphere, reducing the Eco-system to waste...
17 Tech
Disaster
Event
Robotics Rise of the Machines - Robots take over— autonomous smart robots might
rebel, take over the world and end mankind – either under their own volition,
or through manipulation under remote control by dark external forces.....
18 Global
Warfare
Human
Impact on
Eco-
system
Weapons of Mass Destruction — misuse of biological, chemical or nuclear
weapons is an obvious threat to the future. Ethnic-targeted bio-engineered
weapons devised by terrorists could also wipe out an entire race, population
or nation. Invasion, conquest and genocide by a foreign / alien civilisation
with vastly superior technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in
Western Europe, William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England,
Spanish conquistadores meet Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and
South America, Cowboys v. Indians across the plains of North America…..
Extinction-level Black Swan Events Type Force Black Swan Event
19 Act of
God
Mass-
delusion
Mass insanity, mass hallucination, mass hysteria and mass hypnosis — as
world-wide physical health improves – so mental health is rapidly declining. 500
million people around the world supposedly suffer from some behavioural,
sociopathic or psychological disorder. By 2040, suicide triggered by manic
depression could be a leading cause of death. The real culprit in all of this could
be the recreational and clinical psychotropic drugs and other mind-bending
agents that we are currently being administered or exposed to. In the face of a
pending worldwide disaster or Extinction-level Event– real or imaginary - mass
insanity, mass hallucination, mass hysteria or mass hypnosis might take
over and the Human population ends itself in a global mass suicide event.....
20 Act of
God
Armageddon Divine intervention— not necessarily by a deity, however. During first contact
with any highly advanced Alien Civilisation, it might initially be misconstrued as a
religious experience – the return of the Messiah or the arrival of the anti-Christ –
and could be a catalyst for the end of the world struggle. In the confusion during
first contact - Religious fanatics belonging to doomsday cults out to persecute or
punish “non-believers” could easily find reason and methods to develop ways
and means to destroy humanity – or be exterminated by Aliens in an uprising.....
21 Act of
God
Creation Someone wakes up and realises it was all just a dream (or only a computer
simulation)—our own reality, or the local four-dimensional version of our own
reality - may not be the most stable form of existence. We might not exist at all -
we could all only be Avitars populating a virtual reality program running within a
computer that is the last thing left in a predominately dying or dead Universe.....
Future Research Problem: -
Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods
The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – SETI
• The Fermi Paradox • Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
• The Drake Equation • Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
Research
Problem: -
The Search for Extra-Terrestrial
Intelligence – SETI
• The Fermi Paradox •
• The Drake
Equation •
Future Research Problem: - Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods
• The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – SETI •
• The Fermi Paradox •
Our Galaxy should be teeming with Alien Civilizations – but where are they?
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
• The Drake Equation • The Drake equation states that: – N = { (R)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
Our Galaxy should be teeming with Alien Civilizations – but where are they?
• The Sun is a young star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy which are billions of
years older than the Sun. Some of these stars likely have Earth-like planets, a few of
which orbit within the “Goldilocks zone” – the critical distance from the Sun where
water exists in all three physical states (as a gas, as a liquid and as a solid).
• If the evolutionary history of the Earth is at all typical – then surely some of these
exo-planets which share Earth-like conditions may be able to develop simple life, and
a few go on to and support intelligent life? Presumably some of this extraterrestrial
intelligent life might eventually create civilizations – and one or more might eventually
go on to create academic communities to investigate science and technology.
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
Is there any obvious proof that we could be alone in the Galaxy? Enrico Fermi
thought so – and he was a pretty smart guy. Might he have been right after all?
• It's been over a hundred years since Enrico Fermi, an icon of applied physics,
was born (and nearly a half-century since he died). Fermi is best remembered for
building a working atomic reactor in a squash court somewhere in Chicago (check
out your local leisure centre for any unusual activity, next time you visit.....).
• In 1950, Fermi made a seemingly innocuous lunchtime remark that has caught
and held the attention of every SETI researcher ever since. This remark came
while Fermi was discussing with his fellow diners the possibility of many
sophisticated societies populating the Galaxy. Fermi’s fellow diners all thought it
reasonable to assume that we should have a lot of cosmic company.
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
“Where is everybody – are we alone?“
• Fermi's alert mind quickly recognised that, if this were true, it implied something
much more profound. If there are really a lot of alien societies - then some of them
might have spread out. Fermi realized that any civilisation with a modest amount of
rocket science - and an inordinate amount of imperial ambition - could go on to
develop an advanced propulsion technology and rapidly colonise the entire Galaxy.
• “Star hopping” across the Galaxy to found new colonies – soon every star system
could be brought under the wing of the empire – say within ten million years, . Ten
million years may sound long, but in fact it's quite short compared with the age of the
Galaxy - which is roughly ten thousand million years. Colonisation of the Milky Way
should be a quick exercise. Fermi immediately realised that the aliens should have
more than enough time to populate the entire Galaxy – and reveal their presence.
• Looking around, he didn't see any clear indication that any aliens are out and about.
This prompted Fermi to ask an obvious question - "where is everybody?“
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
“Where is everybody – are we alone?“
• At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonised by
“star hopping” - in a few tens of millions of years. Following this line of thought - the
Earth should have already been colonised by more technology advanced civilisations -
or at least visited by their unmanned scouting and manned surveying missions. There
is no convincing evidence that this has ever happened – and, as yet, no confirmed
signs that intelligence has ever been detected elsewhere in our own galaxy – let alone
from any of the more distant 80 billion other galaxies in the observable universe.
Hence Fermi's question "Where is everybody?".
• This question seems a bit simplistic. Most researchers consider this to be a radical
conclusion to draw from such a simple observation. The fact that aliens don't appear
to walk around the planet in broad daylight does not imply that there are no extra-
terrestrials anywhere among the vast tracts of the Galaxy. Surely there is a perfectly
straightforward explanation for what has become known as the Fermi Paradox - there
must be some way to account for our apparent loneliness in a galaxy that we assume
is full of sentient beings?
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
Minkowski
Space-Time continuum
• During 1907, in an attempt to understand the previous works of Lorentz and Einstein - a radical four-dimensional view of the Universe (space-time continuum) was designed by German Mathematician Hermann Minkowski .
• Classical (Newtonian) physics, describes a three-dimensional vector co-ordinate system defining Space (position) - and the flow of Time (history) the other universal dimension – were considered to exist independently until the synthesis of Minkowski space-time continuum, .
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• In1907 the German mathematical physicist Hermann Minkowski developed the concept
of a single space-time continuum - which provides a conceptual framework for all the
mathematical proofs used in relativity - including Albert Einstein's general and special
theory of relativity. Minkowski space-time is an integrated and unified four-dimensional
continuum - composed of three Positional Dimensions (Loci or Vectors x, y and z
coordinates) defining Space (vector / position) – which is entirely integrated and wholly
unified with a fourth Temporal Dimension (t coordinate) – defining Time (history).
• Minkowski quickly realised that the preliminary work on relativity theory could best be
explained and understood in a multi-dimensional universe which extended beyond the
three spatial dimensions (x, y and z axes) - to include a temporal dimension (t axis) - as
the foundation of a new, non-Euclidean four-dimensional geometry. Minkowski coupled
the two separate dimensions of Space and Time together to create a unified four-
dimensional Space-Time continuum - which was then employed in his own treatment of
a four-dimensional study of electrodynamics. This study involved a combination of two
previously separate systems – Space (with x, y and z axes) and Time (t axis) – to form
Space-Time (with x, y, z and t axes). He noticed that the invariant interval between
two events shared some of the properties of distance in Euclidean three-dimensional
geometry and formulated this invariant interval as the square root of a sum and
difference of squares of the intervals of both Space and Time.
Minkowski Space-time Continuum
• Using this concept, events which are localized in both space and time may be
considered as the analogues of points in three-dimensional geometry. Thus the
Time dimension in the history of a single particle or the timeline of an event in
Minkowski space-time - resembles the arc of a curve in a three-dimensional
Space, and is thus fully dependent on both its spatial and historical components.
• Like Space, Time is a Dimension – but Time only flows in a single direction, as
does a River. Time and Space can only exist together within a single, unified
Space-Time continuum. Without Time – there can be no Space, and without
Space – there can be no Time. Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as
Minkowski space or the Minkowski universe. Minkowski space-time is used
predominately in the study of relativity, although it can also be applied to other
subjects involving the coupling of spatial and temporal vectors – such as Futures
Studies. In order to exploit the Minkowski space-time continuum, this type of
coupling must demonstrate that the history of a particle or the transformation
of a process over time is fully dependent on both Space and Time.
Minkowski
Space-Time continuum
• Space (position) and
Time (history) flow
inextricably together in
one direction – always
towards the future.
• In order to exploit the
principle properties of
the Minkowski space-
time continuum, any
type of Spatial and
Temporal coupling
must be able to
demonstrate that the
History of a particle
or the Transformation
of a process over time
is fully dependent on
both its spatial and
historical components.
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
“Where is everybody – are we alone?“
• Many scientists have given this subject some considerable thought. The first
thing that they confirm is that the Fermi Paradox is based on a remarkably
strong and lucid argument. We can quibble about the speed of an alien
spacecraft, whether they can accelerate to 1 percent or 10 percent of the
speed of light - it doesn't matter – and if we simply add or subtract a “zero”
from 10 million years it might take to cross the Galaxy - it still doesn't matter.
• As each a new star colony founded from the mother planet begins to spawn
further colonies of its own, civilisation will spread inexorably across the
Galaxy. Any reasonable assumption about how fast colonisation could
reach out across interstellar space - still ends up with time scales for
Galactic colonisation that are profoundly shorter than the age of the Galaxy
itself. It's much like having a heated debate about whether Spanish ships in
the 16th century ploughed across the Atlantic at two knots or twenty. Either
way, it doesn't matter – the Spanish still rapidly colonised the Americas.
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
“Where is everybody – are we alone?“
• Nuclear Fusion is the next barrier to our inter-stellar journey - the conquest of Hydrogen technology, the science required to support both a Hydrogen Economy (to free up the general population from energy dependency) and to enable interstellar travel (to free up explorers from gravity dependency).
• Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained maintenance of the enormous pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core This is a most challenging technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to explore and evaluate its extraordinary opportunities.
• To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires creating the same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun. This means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and fusion of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a single Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
For each civilisation that communicates, for what fraction of the
planets life does that Civilisation survive long enough to send
and receive detectable signals into deep interstellar space?
• There is a clear and present danger that one fine day; some future Global-
level Extinction Event may remove all Intelligent Life from the face of the
Earth. This may already have happened elsewhere…..
• In order to discover evidence of extraterrestrial life – there has to be two
civilisations in close proximity within the Galaxy broadcasting and receiving
signals at the same time – a ”pitcher” and a “receiver” – both have to be
capable of sending and receiving detectable signs of their existence deep
into interstellar space.
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
Periodically, there must be global Extinction-level Events – over time,
variable occurring Kill-curves for marine and terrestrial species on Earth
• Periodically, there must be Global-level Extinction Events which remove the dominant
extant life-forms – freeing up blocked, static or slowly evolving ecological niches and
allowing a rapid burst of adaptive evolution to take place. Throughout earth’s history,
both major and minor extinction-level events have occurred on many occasions. On
each Global-level Extinction Event – no terrestrial animal weighing over 22kg as an adult
has survived. This freed up “blocked” ecological niches which in turn has lead to the
development of intelligent life on our planet.
1. Pre-Cambrian and Cambrian Extinction Events – 1000-542 million years ago
2. Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) Event – 251.4 million years ago
3. Cretaceous – Tertiary Boundary Event – 65 million years ago
4. Global Massive Change – 20 kya to present day • Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and ecological
degradation.
• Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do all of the natural geological processes
• Ecological Degradation – biological extinction rate - is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event
• Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resource
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
Could we be alone in our part of the galaxy, or more dramatic still, could
we be the only intelligent life in the universe that has reached the
capability to develop a satellite communication technology which sends
detectable signs of their existence into deep interstellar space?
• The Physics of star clustering leads us towards new questions concerning the make-up
of stellar clusters and galaxies, stellar populations in different types of galaxy, and the
relationships between high-stellar populations and local clusters. What are the
implications for their relative formation times and galactic star-formation histories –
overall, resolved and unresolved – and consequent impact on the evolution of life?
• In the 13.7 billion years since the “Big Bang” there have been several Stellar
Generations or Star Cycles – as witnessed by the Hertzsprung Russell (HR) diagram
which plots the luminosity versus surface temperature of the star using red to blue
colour coding to indicate Luminosity versus Surface Temperature, which varies and
over time – the Stellar Lifecycle. The Hertzsprung Russell Stellar Cluster Diagram plots
the relationship between mean surface temperature and luminosity of a star –
demonstrating a massive range of different Star Types which vary not only by stellar
temperature and luminosity – but implicitly by stellar mass and longevity as well.
Star Clusters
• New and
improved
understanding
of star cluster
physics brings
us within reach
of answering a
number of
fundamental
questions in
astrophysics,
ranging from
the formation
and evolution
of galaxies –
to intimate
details of the
star formation
process itself.
Hertzsprung Russell
• The Hertzsprung
Russell diagram is a
scatter plot Cluster
Diagram which shows
the Main Sequence
Stellar Lifecycles.
• A Hertzsprung Russell
diagram is a scatter
plot Stellar Cluster
Diagram which
demonstrates the
relationship between a
stars temperature and
luminosity over time –
using red to blue colour
to indicate the mean
temperature at the
surface of the star.
Star
Clusters • The Physics of star
clustering leads us
to new questions
related to the
make-up of stellar
clusters and
galaxies, stellar
populations in
different types of
galaxy, and the
relationships
between high-
stellar populations
and local clusters –
overall, resolved
and unresolved –
the implications
for their relative
formation times
and galactic star-
formation histories.
SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox
“Where is everybody – why are we alone?“
• The first stellar cycles lasted only a few hundred thousand years, demonstrating an
extraordinary violent lifecycle – the massive early stars fed by the super-abundance of
Hydrogen and Helium. This converted simple Hydrogen and Helium atoms (the only
elements present in the Universe during the early stellar stage) into all of the 100-plus
elements that we are aware of today. Our Solar System has only been in existence for 4.3
billion years – about a third of the life of the Universe. Perhaps there simply haven’t been
enough Star Cycles yet’ to support abundant Intelligent Life in the current Stellar Phase –
are we the first?
• Consequently, scientists in and out of the SETI community have conjured up other
arguments to deal with the conflict between the idea that alien civilisations should be
everywhere and our failure (so far) to find any of them. In the 1980s, dozens of papers
were published to address the Fermi Paradox. They considered numerous technical and
sociological arguments for why the aliens weren't hanging out nearby in our stellar
neighbourhood. Some even insisted that there was no paradox at all - that the only reason
that we don't see any evidence of extraterrestrials - is because they don’t exist.....?
Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....
Hertzsprung Russell
• The Hertzsprung Russell
diagram is a scatter plot
Cluster Diagram which
shows Stellar Lifecycles
along the Main Sequence
• A Hertzsprung Russell
diagram is a scatter plot
Stellar Cluster Diagram
which demonstrates the
relationship between a
stars temperature and
luminosity over time –
using a red to blue colour
code to indicate the
surface temperature
through the stars lifecycle
.
The Drake Equation
• SETI Research – The Drake Equation •
The Drake equation states: - Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
• Where Nc = the number of civilizations transmitting detectable signals in the galaxy: -
– R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
– N* = the average population of stars over the life of the galaxy
– fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
– ns = the average number of planets that exist in any given Planetary System
– ne = the average number of planets that can support life per star with planets
– fℓ = the fraction of the above that go on to develop simple life at some point
– fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
– fc = the fraction of civilizations that sends signs of their existence into space
– L = the time which civilizations release detectable signals into space.
• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain the following result: -
Nc = the number of civilizations in the galaxy with detectable communication
The Drake Equation
Alternative expression: -
• The number of stars in the galaxy now, N*, is related to the star formation rate R* by: -
– N*(n) = f {R*(n) x t } dt
• where Tg = the age of the galaxy. Assuming for simplicity that R* is constant, then: -
– N* = R*(n) x T(g}
• The Drake equation can thus be rewritten into an alternate form phrased in terms of the
much more easily observable value, N*.[4]
– Nc = { N*(n) x f(p) x n(e) x f(l) x f(i) x f(c) x L} / T(g) }
• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain: -
Nc = the number of civilizations in the galaxy with detectable communication
• For each civilisation that communicates, what fraction of the planets life does the
Civilisation survive to release continuous detectable signals deep into interstellar space?
The Drake Equation
• SETI Research – The Drake Equation •
The Drake equation states that: N = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
• Where N = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy
• Dr. Frank Drake, at the original SETI and the Exoplanetary Association conference,
developed The Drake Equation in 1961. The Drake Equation is used for estimating
the number of intelligent communicating Civilisations there are in our Galaxy – and
has been re-visited and refined by numerous scientists over the last fifty years.
Original estimates for Drake Equation Variables
• There was considerable disagreement between delegates present at the original
conference meeting on the values of these parameters. The “educated guesses”
used by Drake in 1961 concluded that Nc ≈ L – the number of civilisations was the
same as their average duration. Given the uncertainties, Drake stated that there
were probably between 1000 and 100m civilizations in our galaxy, the Milky Way :-
Nc = 1000–100m – where Earth is just one of numerous Galactic civilisations
The Drake Equation
• SETI Research – Original Values for The Drake Equation •
The Drake equation states that: Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
• Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy:
– R* = 1 per year (1 star formed per year over the life of the Galaxy – this is conservative)
– N* = 100 billion (100 billion star population over the life of the Galaxy – conservative)
– fp = 20-50% (one fifth to half of all stars formed will have Earth-like rocky Planets)
– ns = 100% (all of these planets will orbit within the “Goldilocks Zone”)
– ne = 1-5 (stars will have 1 to 5 planets capable of developing life –optimistic)
– fℓ = 100% (all of these planets will develop simple life – this is wildly optimistic)
– fi = 100% (all of these planets will develop intelligent life – wildly optimistic)
– fc = 10-20% (10-20% of which will develop the ability to communicate externally)
– L = 1k – 100m years (which will transmit somewhere between 1000 and 100m years)
• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain the following result: -
Nc = 1000–100m – where Earth is just one of numerous Galactic civilisations
The Drake Equation
• BIOGENESIS – Gateways to Planetary Suitability for Life to first appear •
1. The planet must exists at a distance from its Sun where Water is present in all three
phases - as a gas, as a liquid and as a solid
2. The planet must have an orbiting Moon which exerts approximate gravitational attraction
equal to that of its Sun – in order to generate tides and help stabilise the planetary orbit –
orbital shape (eccentricity), axial tilt (obliquity), precession (wobble) and planetary
inclination
3. The planet must have a massive liquid iron core which sustains: -
1. a strong magnetic field - to preserve its atmospheric integrity from solar wind
2. a long-lasting heat source - to drive geological systems such as plate tectonics
4. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water distributed across
interconnected oceans – allowing circulatory systems to distribute solar energy from the
tropics to the poles and drive weather systems (warm, surface ocean currents) and to
distribute nutrients and oxygen from the poles to the tropics (cold, deep ocean currents)
5. The planet must have a dense atmosphere – to absorb the energy of meteors and filter
harmful solar radiation, to support weather systems which distribute water from the sea
through evaporation, via water vapour and clouds in the atmosphere, and precipitation to
supply water in the form of rain and snow onto the land surface – the Water Cycle
The Drake Equation
• NATURAL CYCLES – Gateways to Planetary Suitability for Life to evolve •
1. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water and supporting
interconnected oceans – allowing circulatory systems (ocean currents) to distribute
nutrients (dissolved from weathered rocks) and dissolved gasses (from the atmosphere)
from the surface in shallow continental seas to the ocean depths to support Benthonic Life.
2. The planet must have a dense atmosphere – to allow Solar Energy to drive the Water
Cycle – where water evaporates from the oceans and as it rises and cools condenses as
water droplets in clouds. Carbon dioxide can then be absorbed into those cloud water
droplets and is precipitated as rain on land and sea. This weak carbonic acid enables the
weathering of rocks - thus facilitating the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
and its fixing and subsequent deposition as carbonates in the sea – the Carbon Cycle
3. Life must evolve photosynthesis in order to capture solar energy to drive hydrolysis and
enable carbon dioxide capture - thus creating hydrocarbons for growth and releasing free
oxygen into the environment/ Photosynthesis must take place continuously for billions of
years to reduce and precipitate free iron radicals present in the environment - then go on
to accumulate free oxygen in the oceans and atmosphere – the Oxygen Cycle.
The Drake Equation
• BIODIVERSITY - Gateways to Planetary Suitability for to support multiple Phyla •
1. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water so that the
evolution of multiple Aquatic Phyla becomes viable to support biodiversity
2. The planet must have a tidal range so that the evolution of semi-aquatic life is viable
across a range of littoral zones - shore-lines, swamps and marshes - so that the
evolution of multiple Amphibious Phyla becomes viable
3. The plant must have distinct seasons so that the evolution of terrestrial life is viable
across a wide range of climate zones and environments outside of the tropics - so
that the evolution of multiple Terrestrial Phyla becomes viable
4. Periodically, there must be Global-level Extinction Events which remove the
dominant extant life-forms – freeing up blocked, static or slowly evolving ecological
niches – which in turn creates favourable conditions for a rapid burst of radiative
evolution to take place to enable the evolution of new Phyla.
Quantitative Methods: – ..... tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
The Drake Equation
Periodically, there must be global Extinction-level Events occurring over
time – variable Kill-curves for both marine and terrestrial species on Earth
• Throughout earth’s long geological history (4.6bn years) natural disasters – both
global and regional – have occurred on numerous occasions ,leading in biological
history (3.7bn years) to many major and minor extinction-level events. For each
global Extinction-level Event – no terrestrial animal weighing more than 22kg as an
adult, has survived. This process has “freed” up “blocked” ecological niches which
in turn has contributed directly to the development of intelligent life on our planet.
1. Pre-Cambrian and Cambrian Extinction Events – 1000-542 million years ago
2. Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) Event – 251.4 million years ago
3. Cretaceous – Tertiary Boundary Event – 65 million years ago
4. Global Massive Change – 20 kya to present day
• Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and ecological degradation.
• Biological Extinction rate – ecological degradation - is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event
• Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do natural geological processes
• Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resource
The Drake Equation
• Gateways for Intelligent Life to develop Society & Civilisations •
• For Phyla that support Intelligent Life, what fraction go on to develop Industrialised Social Structures & Technology-based Civilizations?
• Some scientists believe that Elephants, Cetaceans (whales) and Corves (rows) exhibit social behaviour and demonstrable intelligence. The pre-requisite for Intelligent life to form Civilisations - is a bipedal stance freeing up the front limbs to develop hands with opposing thumbs. Without hands, fingers and thumbs, however, not even the brightest Elephants, Whales and Crows - are capable of creating tools in order to manufacture artefacts.....
• Had the Raptors - small, intelligent, bipedal, carnivorous, feathered and warm-blooded dinosaurs - survived the Cretaceous–Tertiary Boundary extinction event 65 million years ago, then perhaps Raptors would have gone on to become the dominant life-form on Earth today and succeeded in developing a technology-based Civilisation – so that we Primates might have become their domestic animals of choice and preferred food-stock !
Quantitative Methods: – ..... tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
The Drake Equation
• Window for Civilisations to send and receive Communications •
• For Phyla capable of evolving Intelligent Life that support s a technology-based
civilisation - what fraction of those civilizations goes on to invent and develop a
digital communication technology enabling telecommunications satellites which
release detectable signs of their existence deep into space?
• In order to discover evidence of extraterrestrial life – there has to be two civilisations in
close proximity within the Galaxy broadcasting and receiving signals at the same time –
a ”pitcher” and a “receiver” – and both have to be capable of sending and receiving
detectable signs of their existence to each other - deep into distant interstellar space.
• Using the Earth as our model, then the expected lifetime of our Solar System is
approximately 10 billion years. Radio communication have only been in use for less
than 100 years. How long can our civilization survive without either destroying itself
through resource shortage and over-population, as predicted by Thomas Malthus, or
succumbing to some global Extinction-level Event – or are we able to overcome our
current global challenges and survive in some form or another – almost indefinitely?
Quantitative Methods: – ..... tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....
The Drake Equation
• Window for communicating Civilisations to make external contact •
• For each technology-based civilisation that develops communication, over what
fraction of the planets existence does that Industrialised Society maintain the
continuous capability to communicate detectable signs of their existence deep
into interstellar space?
• For every civilisation that invents external communication, for what fraction of the planets
life does industrial society and technology-based Civilisation survive? If doomsday
arrived tomorrow, using the Earth as an example – this figure would be 1/100,000,000th
of the life of the Planet . If humans survived in some form or another for a further
10,000 years or more – then this fraction would now be 1/1,000,000th of the Planets Life.
• The Drake equation states that: - N = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
– Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy.
• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain the following result: -
– Nc = 1.056 – where Earth is the only detectable civilisation in our Galaxy +/- 5.6%
The Drake Equation
• SETI Research – Current Values for The Drake Equation •
The Drake equation states that: Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }
• Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy:
– R* = 7 per year (7 stars formed per year over the life of the Galaxy)
– N* = 200 billion (200 billion average star population over the life of the Galaxy)
– fp = 20% (one fifth of all stars formed will have planets – mostly Gas Giants)
– ns = 33% (one third of these planets will be Earth-like rocky Planets)
– ne = 20% (one fifth of these planets these will be capable of supporting life)
– fℓ = 20% (one fifth of these planets these will go on to develop simple life)
– fi = 20% (one fifth of these planets will go on to develop intelligent life)
– fc = 20% (one fifth of these planets will be able to communicate)
– L = 100 years (these will transmit detectable signals in excess of 100 years)
• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain the following result: -
Nc = 1.056 – where Earth is the only detectable civilisation in our Galaxy
Abiliti: Future Systems
Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again – everything that is the same must return in its own everlasting
cycle.....
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •
Many Economists and Economic Planners have arrived at the same conclusion - that most organisations have not yet widely adopted
sophisticated Business Intelligence and Analytics systems – let alone integrated BI / Analytics and “Big Data” outputs into their core Strategic
Planning and Financial Management processes.....
Abiliti: Future Systems
• Abiliti: Origin Automation is part of a global consortium of Digital Technologies Service Providers and Future Management Strategy Consulting firms for Digital Marketing and Multi-channel Retail / Cloud Services / Mobile Devices / Big Data / Social Media
• Graham Harris Founder and MD @ Abiliti: Future Systems
– Email: (Office) – Telephone: (Mobile)
• Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔 泰巴德
– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti: Future Systems – Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile) – +44 (0) 121 445 5689 (Office) – Email: [email protected] (Private)
• Ifor Ffowcs-Williams CEO, Cluster Navigators Ltd & Author, “Cluster Development” – Address : Nelson 7010, New Zealand (Office)
– Email : [email protected]
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