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© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Small Cells State of the Na.on
David Chambers Senior Analyst
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
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About ThinkSmallCell
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
3G/LTE will predominate by 2020 Cisco VNI Feb 2016
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Global transi.on towards LTE
Ericsson Mobility Report 2015 4GAmericas Sep 2015
North America has highest share of LTE subscribers (198M = 47%) China has highest number of LTE subs (> 380M = 28%) Europe catching up VoLTE follows slowly
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Network Capacity Journey LTE + new spectrum
Refarm 2G -‐> 3G
Enable Wi-‐Fi offload at home/office
Carrier Wi-‐Fi
3G/4G Enterprise Cellular
Urban LTE Small Cell
Wi-‐Fi Homespot
LTE-‐U/LAA
VoLTE
Refarm 3G -‐> 4G
VoWi-‐Fi
Time
LTE only Enterprise/Residen.al
MuLTeFire
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Where’s the money? Cellular Carrier Wi-‐Fi
Operator Revenues ~$1 Trillion <$0.001 Trillion
Largest Operators (Revenue) $91 Billion (China Mobile) $87 Billion (Verizon Wireless)
$0.12 Billion (Boingo) $0.08 Billion (iPass)
Network Equipment Spend $43 Billion (Excludes professional services)
$0.6 Billion (Infone.cs 2014)
94%
4% 2%
RAN
DAS
Small Cell
Carrier Wi-‐Fi Revenues are <0.1% of cellular Capital Spend is 1.4% of cellular Total Wi-‐Fi market size $14.8 Billion
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
How Wi-‐Fi Offload differs • True Wi-‐Fi offload may be <5%[1]
– Scenarios where user unaware traffic carried over Wi-‐Fi and uses as if cellular service
• Voice over Wi-‐Fi capacity limited – Priori.sa.on of voice unable to
maintain quality for ~6 calls/access point
– Heavy home data streaming can affect voice calls
– Wi-‐Fi has 10% voice capacity per MHz compared to LTE (Cisco[2])
[1] Amdocs State of the RAN 2016 [2] Cisco at Cambridge Wireless, ThinkSmallCell report Jan 2014
• Devices ac.vely use Wi-‐Fi differently to cellular – Defer photo uploads, s/w downloads to
Wi-‐Fi
• Users ac.vely differen.ate Wi-‐Fi availability – Choose to consume more video when
on Wi-‐Fi, for cost or speed – As a “connec.on of last resort”
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Wi-‐Fi: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban Outdoor
Massively deployed, mostly by fixed BB and Cable Variable service quality, growing demand and complexity
Massively deployed, mostly by independent SIs Robust service, .ghtly secured; poor mobility
Widely deployed, ouen by local independent SIs Variable service quality & security; poor mobility, lacks resilience
Municipal schemes commercially dubious viability Variable service quality & security
FON opening access to wide customer base.
Unlikely to interwork with Carrier Wi-‐Fi
Commercial conflict between Carrier Wi-‐Fi/Passpoint & direct customer service
Passpoint would be key for wider take-‐up
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
LTE Features for Capacity Gain Radio Feature Capacity Gain Dependencies
Device Sync Latency
Evolu.on NAICS 6-‐10% ✔ ✔ ✔
MIMO 4x2 MIMO 23%
4x4 MIMO 77% ✔
Intra-‐site CoMP 10-‐25% ✔
Small Cells 3 x ePico 350%
eICIC/FeICIC 320% ✔ ✔ ✔
Smart FeICIC 350% ✔ ✔ ✔
Dual Connec.vity 32% ✔ ✔ ✔
LTE-‐U 200% ✔
Mul.-‐Sector 6 Sector 80%
Broadcas.ng eMBMS Service dependent ✔ ✔
Source: Erol Hepsaydir, Three UK, HetNet World 2015
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Small Cells: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise Urban Rural
Few new deployments but some surprises (T-‐Mobile USA) Millions embedded at Free France, saving spectrum/roaming fees
Most lucra.ve segment. Split between small/med and med/large Growing credibility for larger buildings
Technically viable but held back by logis.cs, planning vs alterna.ves Likely to be LTE only, targewed zones
Increased interest although small part of total market Higher RF power and 3G/LTE required
Poten.al for up.ck with 4G only VoLTE
3G/LTE important today, LTE for future Neutral host
Logis.cs and 3rd party deployment
Regulatory drive for coverage targets
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
DAS: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban Outdoor
Rarely found except in some larger apartment complexes/mixed use buildings
Larger buildings, typically 2G/3G Newer systems incorporate LTE
Mul.-‐operator Compa.bility with macro networks High capacity
ODAS where fibre plen.ful Allows neutral hosts to address urban zones
Would require alterna.ve product architecture
Upgrading to LTE considered expensive LTE-‐U/LAA less appropriate
Specialist engineering, ongoing evolu.on
Competes with RRH from RAN vendors
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Remote Radio Heads • “Distributed basesta.ons” including RRH and similar (e.g. Radio DOT, Lampsite)
• Brings radio heads back into scope of RAN equipment vendors
Benefits • Compa.ble with macrocell layer
(where present) • Compa.ble with exis.ng
opera.onal processes
Disadvantages • Underlays 3rd party macrocells in
some regions • Processes may need to differ • Typically locked to single network
operator
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Enterprise Wireless Choices Mul.-‐Operator Single Operator*
*Mul.-‐Operator possible via MORAN/MOCN or installing parallel/duplicate kit
Wi-‐Fi Small Cell
RRH DAS
MuLTeFire Small Cell
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Neutral Hosts become arbiter
• Aggregate large numbers of small installa.ons
• Connect to mul.ple operators
…etc.
© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Take-‐aways • Wi-‐Fi – Cordless service inside the home/office – No money in Carrier Wi-‐Fi today
• Mobile Capacity = LTE + Small Cells – 3G/4G mul.-‐mode indoor first – VoLTE when mature
• Growing focus on Enterprise – Shared costs with building owners – Neutral host business model