Three Trade Association
Small Business Data Bases
William J. Dennis, Jr.
Senior Research Fellow
NFIB Research Foundation
Academy of Management
Chicago, IL
August, 2009
Three Data Bases
• Small Business Economic Trends
– www.nfib.com/research
• National Small Business Poll
– 411smallbusinessfacts.com
• New Business in America: The Firms and
Their Owners
– Not on the Web
Small Business Economic Trends
• Topic – current and forecast economic data,
e.g., selling prices, employment, credit
conditions, inventories. 37 questions
• Data Collection – member survey. Mail.
Quarterly between Oct., 1973 and Jan.,
1986; monthly since. Currently, about
12,000 observations a year
• Data availability – both micro and aggregate
series
SBET Strengths
• Longevity – 37 years (time series)
• Consistent – most questions unchanged over time
• Frequent – monthly
• Reliable – questions patterned after Un. of Mich.’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment
• Performance – demonstrated subsequently
• Unique – nothing like it in the world
• No cost to user
SBET Weaknesses
• Sample from trade association membership,
respondents disproportionately large,
rural, manufacturers
• Response rate – between 33 percent and 17
percent
• Trends are trustworthy; levels are not
• Some questions do not date to 1973.
Tweaks made in 1982 and 1986
• Micro-responses cannot be linked over time
Currency
• Released the second
Tuesday of each month
• E-mail press release
with summary results
• Anyone can be on the
mailing list (now
consists principally of
media, investment
firms, and government
officials
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Net P
erc
ent
YEAR
EARNINGSActual Last Three Months
January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009
(Seasonally Adjusted)
NFIB Research Foundation
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Actual
Planned
Net P
erc
ent
YEAR
PRICESActual Last Three Months and Planned Next Three Months
January Quarter 1974 to April Quarter 2009
(Seasonally Adjusted)
NFIB Research Foundation
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00
'03
'06
'09
Perc
en
t o
f F
irm
s
PREDICTED ACTUAL
Q3 BASED ON JUNE DATA 8.8%
Wall Street is a Major User
Wall Street Analysis
More Wall Street Analysis
National Small Business Poll
• Topic – various, each Poll is a different topic, e. g., Families in Business, IT Issues, Payroll, Innovation
• Data Collection – stratified random sample of small employers (<250 empl.) from D&B files. N ≈ 750 per Poll. Telephone. Conducted by The Gallup Organization.
• Data Availability – micro data with NAICs, employees, or zip consolidated
NSBP Strengths
• Sampling and survey conduct
• Stratification includes 200 cases of 20+ employee firms in each survey
• 63 separate polls (variety)
• Isolated facts (unusual questions); research ideas
• Preview survey questions, response, and Ns on-line
• No cost to user
NSBP Weaknesses
• Lacks depth, detail
• Questions gather general information, facts,
evaluations; not hypothesis driven
• Samples always of general population,
meaning problems, issues of subsets
not (infrequently) addressed
• Profitability (finance), growth measures poor
Sample Topics in the Series
• Workplace Safety
• Reinvesting in the Business
• Contributions to Community
• Business Structure
• Training Employees
• Energy Consumption
• IT Issues
• Credit Cards
411 Home Page
411 Data Page
New Business in America
• Antecedent to the PSED
• 3 year longitudinal survey – 1985 - 1987
• Businesses <18 months old
– Yr 1 – 2994 cases
– Yr 2 – 1190 cases
– Yr 3 – 877 cases
– Could not identify final status of only 1 case
• Sampling frame – NFIB membership file
Sample Topics Addressed
• Strategy – same questions all three years
• Major changes
• Sales problems
• Time allocation
• Capital sources and additions
• Franchised sales
• Expected success
• Reasons for entry
• Personal satisfaction
• Changes in ownership structure
• Information sources
• Preparation, including prior business experience
Why Consider Using the Set?
• PSED more comprehensive, more recent, reaches people earlier in the process, and is methodologically superior
• Why use the New Business in America set?
– Easier to use; less intimidating
– Some differences and emphases
– Annual intervals
– Know the three year survival status of everyone; increases number of cases to work with
Publications from New Bus. In Am.
• Do Entrepreneurial Goals Matter? Resource Allocation in New Owner-Managed Firms. Dunkelberg, Moore, Scott, Stull, under review, 2009
• Survival of the fittest? Entry human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms. Gimeno, Folta, Cooper, ASQ, Dec. 1997
• Determinants of satisfaction for entre-preneurs. Cooper, Artz, JBV, 1995
More Publications
• Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: Rational decision-making or escalation of commitment? McCarthy, Schoorman, Cooper, JBV, Jan 1993
• Entrepreneurship and the initial size of firms. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, September, 1989
• Entrepreneurs perceived chances for success. Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg, JBV, Spring 1988