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Threshold Capital Corp.Threshold Capital Corp.
January 21, 2011January 21, 2011
20092009
Conduct intense fundamental research on Conduct intense fundamental research on individual ideasindividual ideasStrive to invest in companies that are well Strive to invest in companies that are well managed with high insider ownership, track managed with high insider ownership, track record of internal growth, dominant in their niche record of internal growth, dominant in their niche marketmarket2008 – Worst performance in the U.S. indices 2008 – Worst performance in the U.S. indices since the Great Depression since the Great Depression March 2009 – Global markets would bottom and March 2009 – Global markets would bottom and rallyrallyDJIA DJIA +18.82%+18.82% S&P 500 S&P 500 +23.45%+23.45%NASDAQ NASDAQ +43.89%+43.89%Russell 2000 Russell 2000 +25.22%+25.22%
2010 Events2010 Events
January 2010January 2010
US Equity Indices Attempt To Find DirectionUS Equity Indices Attempt To Find Direction
Bernanke Confirmed for a 2Bernanke Confirmed for a 2ndnd Term Term
US Senate Raises the Debt Ceiling to $14.3 US Senate Raises the Debt Ceiling to $14.3 TrillionTrillion
February 2010February 2010
President Obama Unveils Budget - $2.5 President Obama Unveils Budget - $2.5 Trillion of Taxes and $3.8 Trillion of Trillion of Taxes and $3.8 Trillion of SpendingSpending
Greece Fiscal Problems Grab HeadlinesGreece Fiscal Problems Grab Headlines
China Raises Bank Reserve China Raises Bank Reserve RequirementsRequirements
US Equity Indices ImprovingUS Equity Indices Improving
March 2010March 2010
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Announces the End of its the End of its $1.25 Trillion Purchase Program$1.25 Trillion Purchase Program
Healthcare Reform Passes – to Begin in Healthcare Reform Passes – to Begin in 2014 at a Cost of $875 Billion2014 at a Cost of $875 Billion
US Consumer Sentiment Improving Along US Consumer Sentiment Improving Along With Business ConfidenceWith Business Confidence
April 2010April 2010
SEC Sues Goldman Sachs Over Abacus SEC Sues Goldman Sachs Over Abacus CDOCDO
BP Rig Explodes in Gulf of MexicoBP Rig Explodes in Gulf of Mexico
Return of Mergers & Acquisitions ActivityReturn of Mergers & Acquisitions Activity
Greece Rescued by the European Union Greece Rescued by the European Union and International Monetary Fundand International Monetary Fund
May 2010May 2010
Flash CrashFlash Crash
European Union Unveils $1 Trillion Rescue European Union Unveils $1 Trillion Rescue PackagePackage
Worldwide Markets Rally, Then Fall by Mid-Worldwide Markets Rally, Then Fall by Mid-monthmonth
US Indices Close Down – All in the Red for US Indices Close Down – All in the Red for 20102010
June 2010June 2010
BP Well Still UncappedBP Well Still Uncapped
China’s Currency Becomes More FlexibleChina’s Currency Becomes More Flexible
Final Revision of the US Financial Reform Bill – Final Revision of the US Financial Reform Bill – FINREGFINREG
US Indices End 1US Indices End 1stst Half 2010 Down Half 2010 Down
DJIA DJIA –(6.27)%–(6.27)% S&P 500 S&P 500 –(7.57)%–(7.57)%
NASDAQ NASDAQ –(7.05)%–(7.05)% Russell Russell –(2.5)%–(2.5)%
US Final Q1 GDP is 2.7% Vs 3.2% EarlierUS Final Q1 GDP is 2.7% Vs 3.2% Earlier
What Are US Companies Doing? Is This A Real What Are US Companies Doing? Is This A Real Recovery?Recovery?
July 2010July 2010
Goldman Sachs Settles Civil Charges for Goldman Sachs Settles Civil Charges for $550 million$550 million
China Q2 GDP at 10.3% Vs 11.9% in Q1China Q2 GDP at 10.3% Vs 11.9% in Q1
BP – New CEO & Well CappedBP – New CEO & Well Capped
August 2010August 2010
Increased M&A ActivityIncreased M&A ActivityRank Group to Buy Pactiv for $4.6 BillionRank Group to Buy Pactiv for $4.6 BillionBHP Goes Hostile after POT for $40 BHP Goes Hostile after POT for $40
BillionBillionINTC to Buy McAfee for $7.68 BillionINTC to Buy McAfee for $7.68 BillionDell/HPQ Battle over 3Par for $2.35 BillionDell/HPQ Battle over 3Par for $2.35 Billion
Housing Still WeakHousing Still WeakDJIA Dips Below 10,000 againDJIA Dips Below 10,000 again
September 2010September 2010
Basel III MeetingBasel III MeetingGold Rises to a Record $1,250/oz. – Up Gold Rises to a Record $1,250/oz. – Up 14% for 201014% for 2010United Kingdom Inflation Hits 3.1%United Kingdom Inflation Hits 3.1%China Declares It Has the World’s 6China Declares It Has the World’s 6 thth Largest Gold ReservesLargest Gold ReservesNBER Declares The Recession Officially NBER Declares The Recession Officially OverOverBuffet & Munger Visit ChinaBuffet & Munger Visit ChinaFair Month for Equities – But 27% of All Fair Month for Equities – But 27% of All Mutual Funds Still Underperforming Mutual Funds Still Underperforming
October 2010October 2010
Bank of Japan Moves – 5 Trillion Yen Buying Bank of Japan Moves – 5 Trillion Yen Buying ProgramProgramChina Reports Holding $2.65 Trillion Foreign China Reports Holding $2.65 Trillion Foreign Currency ReservesCurrency ReservesForeclosure/Robo-Signing Scandal – BAC, Foreclosure/Robo-Signing Scandal – BAC, WFC, C, JPM Halt ForeclosuresWFC, C, JPM Halt ForeclosuresChina Raises Interest RatesChina Raises Interest RatesG20 Meeting in Korea – Agree to Move G20 Meeting in Korea – Agree to Move Toward Market Driven Exchange Rate Toward Market Driven Exchange Rate SystemSystem
November 2010November 2010
World Bank Raises China Growth ForecastWorld Bank Raises China Growth Forecast
US Elections – Republicans SweepUS Elections – Republicans Sweep
Fed Announces QE2 Plans – Additional Fed Announces QE2 Plans – Additional $600 Billion$600 Billion
US Indices Rally – DJIA reaches 11,400US Indices Rally – DJIA reaches 11,400
World Bank President Recommends the World Bank President Recommends the Inclusion of Gold in a Revamped Global Inclusion of Gold in a Revamped Global Monetary SystemMonetary System
Ireland is Rescued - $70 Billion Plus Ireland is Rescued - $70 Billion Plus AusterityAusterity
US Encouraging Holiday Retail SalesUS Encouraging Holiday Retail Sales
December 2010December 2010
Unveiling of US Deficit Reduction Plan - $4 Unveiling of US Deficit Reduction Plan - $4 TrillionTrillionWeak November Jobs Report – Weak November Jobs Report – Unemployment rises to 9.8%Unemployment rises to 9.8%Chairman Bernanke Interviewed on 60 Chairman Bernanke Interviewed on 60 MinutesMinutesUS Tax DealUS Tax DealUS Q3 Final GDP at 2.6%US Q3 Final GDP at 2.6%China Raises Interest RatesChina Raises Interest RatesEnd 2010 with Solid GainsEnd 2010 with Solid Gains
DJIA DJIA +11.02%+11.02% S&P 500 S&P 500 +12.78%+12.78%NASDAQ NASDAQ +16.91%+16.91%Russell Russell +25.31%+25.31%
Core Portfolio PositionsCore Portfolio Positions
General ElectricGeneral Electric
Makers of Jet engines, Locomotives, power Makers of Jet engines, Locomotives, power turbines, consumer productsturbines, consumer products
GE CapitalGE Capital
Strong Industrial Orders in InfrastructureStrong Industrial Orders in Infrastructure
GE Increasing Dividend – Yield 3.06%GE Increasing Dividend – Yield 3.06%
Philip Morris InternationalPhilip Morris International
World’s largest and most profitable publicly World’s largest and most profitable publicly traded cigarette manufacturertraded cigarette manufacturer
Growing Emerging MarketsGrowing Emerging Markets
For 2010, PMI will earn $3.90 - $3.95; Up 20% For 2010, PMI will earn $3.90 - $3.95; Up 20% from 2009from 2009
Since Spinoff in 2008, PMI has increased Since Spinoff in 2008, PMI has increased dividends by 39% - Yield 4.5%dividends by 39% - Yield 4.5%
Altria GroupAltria Group
Philip Morris USA, US Smokeless, John Philip Morris USA, US Smokeless, John Middleton, and 28.5% Stake in SAB MillerMiddleton, and 28.5% Stake in SAB Miller
For 2010, MO will earn $1.83 - $1.87For 2010, MO will earn $1.83 - $1.87
Yield 6.29%Yield 6.29%
Lorillard Inc.Lorillard Inc.
33rdrd Largest Tobacco Company in US Largest Tobacco Company in US
Newport Brand - #1 in Menthol segment with Newport Brand - #1 in Menthol segment with 12.9% overall US market share12.9% overall US market share
Successful launch of non-Menthol Newports in Successful launch of non-Menthol Newports in Q4Q4
Pays $1.25 dividend per Qtr – Yield 6.5%Pays $1.25 dividend per Qtr – Yield 6.5%
Still considered a takeover candidateStill considered a takeover candidate
Cost per pack in New York City - $12 (NJ $9-10 per pack)Cost per pack in New York City - $12 (NJ $9-10 per pack)Tax Breakdown:Tax Breakdown:
Federal - $1.01 per pack (up from $0.39 in 2009)Federal - $1.01 per pack (up from $0.39 in 2009)NY State - $4.35 per packNY State - $4.35 per packNYC - $1.50 per packNYC - $1.50 per pack
Just under 60% of purchase price goes to paying taxesJust under 60% of purchase price goes to paying taxes
Gold & Precious MetalsGold & Precious MetalsLarge Investor Appetite for Gold in 2010Large Investor Appetite for Gold in 2010
Gold prices have tripled since 2004Gold prices have tripled since 2004
As the US and EU continue to pump $$$ into As the US and EU continue to pump $$$ into their fragile financial systems, Gold will continue their fragile financial systems, Gold will continue to do wellto do well
Large buyers continue to be China, Russia, IndiaLarge buyers continue to be China, Russia, India
As a currency, Gold has no liabilities – Gold As a currency, Gold has no liabilities – Gold cannot Defaultcannot Default
Gold companies in Portfolio – AEM, AUY, GDX Gold companies in Portfolio – AEM, AUY, GDX & GDXJ& GDXJ
Brazil OpportunitiesBrazil Opportunities1010thth Largest Economy in the World – GDP Growth of 7% Largest Economy in the World – GDP Growth of 7% in 2010; higher 2011in 2010; higher 2011Self-sufficient in oil; leader in alternative energy sourcesSelf-sufficient in oil; leader in alternative energy sourcesWorld Cup in 2014 and Olympics in 2016World Cup in 2014 and Olympics in 2016Massive need of Infrastructure – over $100 BillionMassive need of Infrastructure – over $100 Billion
Ultrapar ParticipacoesUltrapar Participacoes– Fuel Distributor & Chemical giantFuel Distributor & Chemical giant– Brands Ipiranga (Fuel Stations), Oxiteno (Chemicals), Brands Ipiranga (Fuel Stations), Oxiteno (Chemicals),
Ultracargo (shipping/storage of bulk liquids)Ultracargo (shipping/storage of bulk liquids)– Earn $3.15 for 2010; $3.65 in 2011Earn $3.15 for 2010; $3.65 in 2011– Yield 2.4%Yield 2.4%
China OpportunitiesChina Opportunities
1.3 Billion People – 1/5 of the Globe’s 1.3 Billion People – 1/5 of the Globe’s PopulationPopulation
Still Growing GDP at rapid pace – 10.5% for Still Growing GDP at rapid pace – 10.5% for 2010 and Range of 9 – 10% for 20112010 and Range of 9 – 10% for 2011
New 12New 12thth Five Year Plan Five Year Plan
1980 – Deng Xiaoping – “To be rich is glorious”1980 – Deng Xiaoping – “To be rich is glorious”
Inflation becoming a concernInflation becoming a concern
China Yuchai International LtdChina Yuchai International Ltd
CYI is the largest independent diesel engine CYI is the largest independent diesel engine maker in Chinamaker in China
Undergoing a tremendous shift in product mix Undergoing a tremendous shift in product mix from light duty to medium duty and heavy duty from light duty to medium duty and heavy duty unitsunits
2011 Joint Ventures2011 Joint Ventures
Will earn over $3.00 in 2010 and estimating Will earn over $3.00 in 2010 and estimating $3.40 - $3.60 for 2011$3.40 - $3.60 for 2011
Duoyuan Global Water IncDuoyuan Global Water Inc
Leading China based domestic water treatment Leading China based domestic water treatment equipment supplierequipment supplier
Products for filtration, water softening, aeration, Products for filtration, water softening, aeration, disinfection, and reverse osmosisdisinfection, and reverse osmosis
Pollution has been a tragic consequence of Pollution has been a tragic consequence of China’s fast GDP growthChina’s fast GDP growth
DGW will be a great beneficiary of the new Five DGW will be a great beneficiary of the new Five Year PlanYear Plan
Earn $1.50 for 2010 and estimating $1.85 for Earn $1.50 for 2010 and estimating $1.85 for 20112011
SearchMedia HoldingsSearchMedia Holdings
One of the largest operators of integrated One of the largest operators of integrated outdoor billboard, transit, and in-elevator outdoor billboard, transit, and in-elevator advertising networks in Chinaadvertising networks in ChinaOver 1,500 billboards and 125,000 advertising Over 1,500 billboards and 125,000 advertising panels in 50 citiespanels in 50 citiesCommitted to building the SearchMedia brand, Committed to building the SearchMedia brand, do smart accretive deals to contribute to top and do smart accretive deals to contribute to top and bottom linesbottom linesGreat Executive Management & Board – Great Executive Management & Board – Owners of the business – 30% ownership stakeOwners of the business – 30% ownership stake
ChinaCast Education ChinaCast Education CorporationCorporation
IR Counsel – Scott Powell of HC IR Counsel – Scott Powell of HC InternationalInternational
US Economic EnvironmentUS Economic Environment
Unemployment still high – 9.4%Unemployment still high – 9.4%
Inflation is here in the USInflation is here in the US
The Fed has pushed our backs to the wallThe Fed has pushed our backs to the wall
US Interest Rates have begun to rise – 10yr at US Interest Rates have begun to rise – 10yr at 3.3% at end of 20103.3% at end of 2010
However – some encouraging newsHowever – some encouraging news
Performance SnapshotPerformance Snapshot
20102010 Since Inception Jan Since Inception Jan 20072007
Threshold (A)Threshold (A) +42.80%+42.80% +61.49%+61.49%Threshold (B)Threshold (B) +41.45%+41.45% +66.75%+66.75%
DJIADJIA +11.02%+11.02% -(7.11)%-(7.11)%S&P 500S&P 500 +12.78%+12.78% -(11.33)%-(11.33)%NASDAQNASDAQ +16.91%+16.91% +9.84%+9.84%Russell 2000Russell 2000 +25.31%+25.31% -(0.51)%-(0.51)%
Deliver Positive Returns Over a Long Term Horizon With the Deliver Positive Returns Over a Long Term Horizon With the Ultimate Goal of Outperforming the MarketsUltimate Goal of Outperforming the Markets
Superior Performance Through Stock pickingSuperior Performance Through Stock picking
Strategy for 2011Strategy for 2011
Continue with in-depth Fundamental Research – Continue with in-depth Fundamental Research – Buy the Brands and Special SituationsBuy the Brands and Special Situations
New Ideas – Currently focusing on BrazilNew Ideas – Currently focusing on Brazil
Cautious on Europe – will Sovereign Debt issues Cautious on Europe – will Sovereign Debt issues break apart European Union?break apart European Union?
Economists estimating S&P Profits of $90-95 for Economists estimating S&P Profits of $90-95 for 20112011
PE Range of 13.6 – 14.3PE Range of 13.6 – 14.3
Disclaimer – This presentation is for the Disclaimer – This presentation is for the exclusive use by Threshold Capital Corp. It exclusive use by Threshold Capital Corp. It expresses the opinions of Peter A Delgado II expresses the opinions of Peter A Delgado II and Threshold Capital Corp and in no way and Threshold Capital Corp and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended for investment advice. It is intended for informational purposes of the reader and the informational purposes of the reader and the author.author.