Thrivikramji: Climate Change and Administrative Support Deficit

8/9/2019 Thrivikramji: Climate Change and Administrative Support Deficit

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PREPARING FOR CLIMATE

CHANGE: CORRECTING

ADMINISTRATIVEINFORMATION DEFICIT

Dr.Thrivikramji.K.P.

[email protected]


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CC, a grave threat to theCC, a grave threat to theplanetplanet -- a threata threat

multiplier.multiplier.The solution: Reduce theThe solution: Reduce theGHG emissionsGHG emissions-- the rootthe root

cause.cause.


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Dangers of Climate Change-Drought, famine, rising seas,social unrest, security threats.Decades off & intangible?

Sacrifice here & nowHow prevent?

Smaller cars, bigger

investments in new energysources & inevitably higher

electricity bills.


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The Climate- induced crises:Drought, starvation, disease

& mass migration.Could unleash regional /

intra-national / internationalconflicts.


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Drivers of CC

Atmospheric concentrationsof GHGs, now ~ 380 ppm,

should not exceed 450 ppm.But staying below this

threshold requires stabilizing

it by 2015 or 2020, &actually reducing them at

least 60%, by 2050.


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What we do in the next twoor three years will determine

our future. Dr.RajendraPachauri, (Chair, IPCC,

2007; no alarmist), warned& said so two years ago.


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The longer the world waits,the sooner it will reach a

tipping point beyond whicheven draconian measures may

not be enough.Warn Scientists .


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Indian Monsoon: The General

CanvassAll rainfall in 100 hr.Nations lifeblood; 80% rain fall in WM

active JuneSept;Food & Water security of nation;

60% Indians farm dependent;Health & productivity of 500 million

farm animals;Power generation & recharge aquifers

Court :M R


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Climate Change modelsIndian Monsoon:

Sub-regional variations in extreme rainfall patterns; so droughts & floods rise;

now drought hit areas under flood;

aquifers recharge and reservoirs andponds fill up for a good rabi crop.

Court :M R


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Climate Change models:Rising temps; Rising sealevels; more cyclones;

frequent coastal storms;Storm surges of higher

reach & damaging coastalflooding.


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CC ImpactsAverage day/night max temp to

rise.Rise in av.temp. by a deg. C

at night shortens duration of wheat

by one week in Punjab & Haryana;

Court :M R


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The MSSRF, ChennaiTraining modules for trainingClimate Risk Managers;

Based on conventional wisdom &frontier knowledge/technology;One man/woman climate manager

team for every village;Ensuring food & water security andreduce suffering from CC risks


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Current Governance

Several century old Acts &Rules, Conventions, Processes &

Systems of governance in

Statute books of the Nation.Inadequate to address issues of

a modern-knowledge-society.

Modern issues call for scientificsolutions & procedures. CC due to

GHG is no exception.


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DECISION SUPPORT,DS

CC impact-mitigation-adaptationNeed solutions founded on

science, processes designed fromknowledge, systems & practicesenabling scientific & technologic

tools, beneficial to society,ecosystems, environment andsustainability of resources.


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DECISION SUPPORT,DS

Community (society leaders,academia, technocrats, managers

& administrators, advocacygroups, VOs, NGOs)

participation, location specific

processes/products, supported bydata and research, with timelines& milestones.


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C.C. RELATEDDECISIONS

Decision Choices ofindividuals/organizations to

mitigate or adapt CC.

Decisions suited to equip & faceCC & its interactions with

ecological, economic & socialsystems.


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Decision-relevant info needs

Nature of climate variability,Effect of CC on ecological,

biophysical & hydrologicalsystems,

Socio-economic drivers of CC,

Vulnerability of human ecology,Effects of multiple stresses on

human systems,


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Available strategies formitigation & adaptation,

Likely costs & consequences ofCC, &

Barriers to success of CC

strategies.


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CC-DS shall produce,disseminate, encourage & useinfo to improve CC related

decisions.DS rated on the ease with

which effective decisions aremade by decision makers.


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Success of Decision Support

Growing use of offered info,More rappo between knowledge

producers and users, &Emergence of better decisions.

Modern communication &

outreach to members ofcommunity/society.


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Basis of Better DS

Start w/user needs,Priority of process over

product,Linking producers & users,

Connect across-, discipline &

organizations,Institutional stability &

learning.


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Data/Info for DS-CC

CC science per se is not crucialto people in charge of decisions;

but indeed need DS.

CC Information is basis of alldecision making. Info is needed

in mitigation/adaptationstrategies.


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Data/Info needs for DS-CC

Reducing GG emissions;Coping with CC in low coastal

lands; Saving coastal wetlands;

Saving megacities like Kolkotta,Chennai, Kochi, Mumbai; Watermanagement in the semi-arid

zone of India; Wildlifemanagement; Saving the

rainforests


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Data/Info needs for CC-DS

Saving the ecosystems;Transport network management;Saving cattle & people from heat

waves;Insulating societies and

communities from outbreak oftropical endemic diseases;Reduction of household GHG

emissions


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Data/Info needs for CC-DS

Till 90s perception of threat was tolittoral states; In 90-92, MoEF- GoIassessed impact to CL with active

cooperation of institutions/labs CL;But release of AR4 (2007),

Added other dimensions to impact.

Sub-continental interior also becameunsafe.


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CC-DS

Climate is changing so doesscientific understanding.

Warrants changes in responseoptions & decision making. Stable

bureaucratic codes/packages

wont work. Need dynamic orevolving guidence.


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CC-DS

CC potentially affects all

spheres of economic activity, regions ofnation, levels of Govt., socialorganisation, professions, communities &

individuals. human life.

A National initiative imperative it is.Mainstreaming of CC adaptation,mitigation programs very urgent


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National Action Plan on CC

NAPCC (2008/9 thru 2017)National Missions ensuring high

economic growth & co-benefits for

addressing CC.Organised as a set of Missions,Ministries Report to PMCCC,

failures, successes & timelines.


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National Action Plan on CC

National Solar Mission, NationalMission for Enhanced EnergyEfficiency, National Mission on

Sustainable Habitat, National WaterMission, National Mission forSustaining Himalayan Ecosystem,

National Mission for Green India,

National Mission for SustainableAgriculture, National Mission on

Strategic Knowledge on CC


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Wither State Action Plans?

However, State Govt., or GP, BP orDP follow b.a.u. approach. Ignorant'

of challenges, i.e., threats and

multiple stresses posed by CC.Mitigation &/or Adaptation Measuresseemingly alien to. No municipality or

city administration ever came up witha concern/strategy on GHG-CC.

Only in the realm of science.


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CC-DS

Unlike stable bureaucratic governancecodes/processes,

Climate is changing, so does scientific

understanding.Warrants changes in response options &decision making.

Hence in DS for adaptation & mitigation

strategies.Monitor & reassess is the slogan.


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CC-DS Research Areas

Social drivers of energyconsumption,

Landuse change, Climatevulnerability,

Decision making under

uncertainty,Institutional arrangement for

wise use of resources.


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Successful DS processesemerge when Decisionmakers & CC experts in a

range of areas(physical, biological & social

sciences ) work in tandem.


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Active stake holder ( inwater, health, energy,

coasts, wetland,infrastructure sectors)

partnership & participationensures success.


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Scientists input:Understanding of CC risks,Anticipate future CC risks,

Estimate climate protectionlevel, Evaluate adaptationpathways,

Develop policy strategies,Monitor & reassess.


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How do we go about:Special focus in thefollowing sectors


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Bye line


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N 2 I/ /8/09/


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Epilogue:CC-DS Advantages

This CC-DS based strategy shallmake the nation a safer place

for its people, and a world thatwe have remade ourselves and

will continue to do so in future.


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TH N YO V RYM CH

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