8 July 2014

Tim Midgley, Conflict and Security Advisor, Saferworld

tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk

Identifying approaches and measuring impacts of programmes focused on transnational organised crime

Transnational organised crime

Aim: to identify and analyse a broad range of approaches and intervention strategies for tackling TOC, and assess challenges for measuring impacts

Approach • identify common, but implicit theories of

change and common assumptions• review evidence of effectiveness• identify appropriate datasets and indicators

'The Business': the money making activities

associated with TOC

Facilitation networks: systems and actors that

actively support TOC networks by leveraging power for criminal gain

Support networks: community support,

social, ethnic and class identities, etc.

Global political and economic system: trading conditions and infrastructure, financial integration, international norms and standards etc.

Social, political and economic vulnerabilities: horizontal inequalities, marginalisation, patronage networks, absence of effective state presence etc.

Image: ClipArtBest.com

Image: ClipArtBest.com

Global political and economic system

Social, political and economic vulnerabilities

Support networks

Facilitation networks

‘The Business’

Theories of Change:

1: Deterrence2: Severing the links between politics, the state and crime3: Managed adaptation of crime4: Cultural change5: Economic transformation6: Global regulation

6 2

3

1

5

4

Datasets and baskets of indicators

Combine measures of

Capacity ‘Objective’

situation Perceptions

Challenges and ways forward

• Under-developed and contradictory evidence base• Law enforcement focus• Lack of comparability across datasets• Extreme adaptability of TOC• Local projects, global impacts

BUT• Evidence base is growing• New approaches and programmes

Implications for development community

• Deepening evidence base (research, M&E, mulit-sectoral innovation etc.)

• Emphasis on local data gathering and analysis capacities

• Holistic security and development strategies informed by understanding of TOC dynamics

• Global indicators• Global considerations built into domestic policies

Thanks for listening!

More information:

saferworld.org.uk/what/post-2015

Contact:

tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk

Conflict, Crime and Violence Results Initiative (CCVRI)• Support DFID in identifying and applying best

practices and measuring the results of programmes in conflict affected contexts

• Two work-streams:• Helpdesk function open to advisors across DFID and

staff from other government departments• More detailed pieces of secondary research of

selected topics• Partners: Small Arms Survey (co-ordinators),

Saferworld, CARE International, CDA, Search for Common Ground and Vera Institute for Justice

Illicit financial flows target

Arms, drugs & conflict commodities target