Timothy Fryetmf2@columbia.edu

Classic Approaches: CaricaturedPutinology

Clan Politics

History

Types of Non-Democracies Military

Chile under Pinochet

Personalist Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela

Single Party Taiwan, Malaysia, Mexico, China

Party can check the leader

Three questions

How do Personalist Governments Work?public opinion

How Do Personalist Regimes Evolve?

What is likely to Come Next?

Logic of Personalist RegimesDespite seeming chaos of day to day

politics….

Higher Corruption

Higher Cronyism

Greater Reliance on Popularity of Leader

Personal Power and PopularityPublic opinion matters in Personalist regimes

Popular leaders can deter challengers from within regime and from without

Coercion is costly Sign of weakness or vulnerability

Building a party takes time and it can turn on you

Certainly the Case in Russia

What Drives Popularity?Do you approve of the political activities of

President Putin?

YesNo

Crude question – not election, etc.

Economy Predicts ApprovalFigure 2. Presidential approval, actual and fitted values from

regressions with just economic perceptions and months in office

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07

Av

era

ge

ra

tin

g o

n 1

0 p

oin

t s

ca

le Yeltsin actualapproval

Putin as primeminister

Putin actualapproval

Fitted valuesfor Yeltsin

Fitted valuesfor Putin

Source: Author's calculations using VCIOM and Levada Center poll data. Fitted values are predictions from models 7 in Tables 2 and 3.

Until 2012…

Rally around the flag…Will it last?

Hard to say US comparisons

Paradox of anti-Kiev/West peaking But little support for sending Russian troops to

Ukraine Other measures of gov’t less supportive Long-term trend

Lying to Pollsters?Very Preliminary results suggests it is limited

Maybe 3-7 percent

More Subtle ApproachRandomly assign two versions of almost

identical question

Difference in average responses only due to small change in question wording

Fall of 2014Survey of 1600 firms in Russia

Half receive Putin PromptFrom 2012-14 at the initiative of President

Putin many attempts have been made to improve the business climate. How would you rate the overall business climate in your region from 2012-14?

1 better2 somewhat better3 No change4 Somewhat worse5 Worse

Other half receive no promptFrom 2012-14 many attempts have been

made to improve the business climate. How would you rate the overall business climate in your region from 2012-14?

1 better2 somewhat better3 No change4 Somewhat worse5 Worse

Putin’s popularity High Approval ratings

But also limited power to persuade

II. How Do Personalist Regimes Evolve? Striking Differences Among Different types of

Regimes

All non-democracies 1945-2006

How Rulers Lose Office

Post Tenure Fate of Rulers

ImplicationsEspecially messy when personalist regimes

fallLeaders anticipate punishment

Personalist regimes more likely to be involved in conflict, especially if bordered by other personalist regimes

III. What Comes Next?

Previous Regime TypeBad News for Russia

Other Structural Conditions Good News

Transitions from Personalist Rule

Post Soviet Rulers Long-LivedGlobal average for Personalist Regimes 15

years

Karimov, Nazarbaev, 24 and counting

Lukashenko 21 and counting

Aliev and Niyazov 20 and 16Akayev, 15 Putin 15 and

counting

Post-Soviet Eurasia

Underperforms in terms of Democracy given its wealth

Income and DemocracyLatin America and Eurasia

Democracies in Red

Non Democracies in Black

Latin America Post-Soviet Eurasia

Country GDP PPP Regime Type Country GDP PPP Regime TypeTrinidad and Tobago 20,301 FlaD Russia 16,687 AuthArgentina 17,376 FlaD Belarus 14,948 AuthChile 16,171 FlaD Kazakhstan 13,059 AuthUruguay 15,469 FulDMexico 15,121 FlaD Azerbaijan 10,216 AuthPanama 13,595 FlaD Turkmenistan 7,518 AuthVenezuela 12,407 Hybr Ukraine 7,198 Hybr

Georgia 5,430 HybrBrazil 11,845 FlaD Armenia 5,395 HybrCosta Rica 11,562 FulD Mongolia 4,509 FlaDColombia 10,155 FlaD Uzbekistan 3,293 AuthPeru 10,000 FlaD Kyrgyzstan 2,380 HybrCuba 9,900 Auth Tajikistan 2,039 AuthSuriname 9,492 FlaD    Dominican Republic 9,289 FlaD    Jamaica 9,003 FlaD    Ecuador 8,335 Hybr    El Salvador 7,595 FlaD    Guyana 7,541 FlaD    Paraguay 5,548 FlaD    Guatemala 5,033 Hybr    Bolivia 4,843 Hybr    Honduras 4,350 Hybr    Nicaragua 3,185 Hybr    Haiti 1,241 Hybr    

Structural Conditions – Good NewsRussia far too rich, educated, and urban to be

as corrupt and non-democratic as it is.

Russia far richer than other countries that have become democracies, Spain in 1970s, Poland, Slovenia in 1990s,

(I think) no authoritarian government has fallen in a country as rich as Russia and not liberalized its political system

Economic Inequality in Russia

High, but not a big obstacle in comparative terms

Natural Resource CurseNatural Resource is a Problem, but

manageable

Conclusions

Personalist regimes

Ironic importance of Public Opinion

Personalist regimes more fragile and transitions more difficult

Mixed prospects with political turnover

Workplace Pressure to vote“How many of the following things will affect

your job security, benefits, and income in 2012? Please do not tell me which of these factors will have an effect, just tell me how many.”

15% think voting will influence their pay incomeTable 2: List Experiment on Clientelistic Exchange in the Russian Workplace

Control Treatment

1. Your job performance 2. Performance of the Russian economy 3. Change in trade with China

1. Your job performance 2. Performance of the Russian economy 3. Change in trade with China 4. Your decision to vote in the 2011 State Duma elections

Mean # Items

1.76 1.91

Personalist Regimes and Corruption

Hard to Measure CorruptionIncentives to lie on surveysCorrupt officials hideLot of interesting research on this topic

Most cutting edge approach to sensitive questions

Why Are Governors Reappointed?Political Loyalty

Vote Share of United Russia

Economic PerformanceGrowth Rates, or Unemployment

Personalist Regimes and Promotion

Russia: Reappointment of Governors post 2004Political Indicators Matter, not Economics

UR vote Share predicts reappointment Size of effect is large Economic performance plays little role

China: Promotion of Regional Elites Economic Indicators dominate

Growth rates in region good predictor of promotion

List ExperimentRandomly Assign questions

Treatment/Control

How many of these things have you experienced. Not which ones, but how many

ControlTell us please which of the following items have you

experienced at least one time in the last 12 months. Please do not tell us which items, just tell us how many.

1. Went to a police station to register documents

2. Ask a police officer for directions3. Showed your documents to a police officer who

stopped you on the street4. Watched a film or television show about the police.

TreatmentTell us please which of the following items have you

experienced at least one time in the last 12 months. Please do not tell us which items, just tell us how many.

1. Went to a police station to register documents2. Ask a police officer for directions3. Showed your documents to a police officer who

stopped you on the street4. Watched a film or television show about the police.5. Gave a bribe to a police officer (a beat cop, a

traffic officer, etc.) in order to avoid an unpleasant situation.

Of those with contact with police20% said they paid bribes

Half respondents receive thisTake a look at this list of politicians and tell me for how

many you generally support their activities. Please do not tell us which ones you support. Just tell us how many.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky Gennady Zyuganov Sergei Mironov

Answer 0 1 2 3

Other half receive thisTake a look at this list of politicians and tell me for how many

you generally support their activities. Please do not tell us which ones you support. Just tell us how many.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky Gennady Zyuganov Sergei MironovVladimir Putin

Answer 0 1 2 3 4

Difference in mean response = true support for Putin

More subtle measure Sample of 600 businesspeople in 20084 slightly different question about joining the

WTORandomly assign which respondent gets what

questionSimply change who recommends joining the

WTO

Only thing that can account for difference in the responses is the change in wording

Two versions President Medvedev thinks that Russian

membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

Prime Minister Putin thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

The persuasive power of economistsMost Russian economists thinks that

Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

Most Western economists thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

Putin’s Persuasive Powers 2008

Similar Questions in December 2011 Prime Minister Putin thinks that Russian

membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO?

Results December 2011