3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS 1

WAVE 2 of the TNS Public Affairs International survey

JUNE 2016

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

FOREWORD, METHODOLOGY AND CONTACTS

2

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

After our first multi country survey

published in April, we are pleased to

present this second TNS Public Affairs

multi-country survey on the UK EU

referendum.

For this second edition of our ‘Continental

drift?’ Germany, France, Netherlands,

Ireland, Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark,

Finland and Luxemburg were surveyed, as

well as the UK, in May 2016.

Do not hesitate to contact our experts, both

at global and at a local level for further

insights and comments.

Thank you

Fieldwork was conducted from 19th to 31th

May. Approx. 1000 persons 18+ nationwide

samples were interviewed (telephone , online or face to face). Detailed

methodology available at the end of this

report.

COUNTRY CONTACTS

Global Edouard Lecerf (edouard.lecerf@tnsglobal.com)

UK Desiree Lopez (desiree.lopez@tns-bmrb.co.uk) Luke Taylor (luke.taylor@tns-bmrb.co.uk)

France Emmanuel Rivière (emmanuel.riviere@tns-sofres.com)

Luxemburg Charles Margue (charles.margue@tns-ilres.com)

Germany Nico Siegel (nico.siegel@tns-infratest.com) Michael Kunert (michael.kunert@infratest-dimap.de)

Poland Piotr Kwiatkowski (piotr.kwiatkowski@tnsglobal.com) Urszula Krassowska (urszula.krassowska@tnsglobal.com)

Czech Republic Bronislav Kvasnicka (Bronislav.Kvasnicka@tnsglobal.com)

Netherlands Natasja van der Laan (Natasja.van.der.Laan@tns-nipo.com) Tim de Beer (Tim.de.Beer@tns-nipo.com)

Denmark Camilla Fjeldsoe (camilla.fjeldsoe@tns-gallup.dk)

Finland Sakari Nurmela (sakari.nurmela@tnsglobal.com)

Ireland Paul Moran (paul.moran@millwardbrown.com)

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

QUESTIONNAIRE/COUNTRY

3

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

UK Poland France Germany Denmark Finland Czech

Republic Luxemburg Netherlands Ireland

Question Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Question In the upcoming referendum, do you think the UK will vote to remain/leave the European Union?

Question If the UK were to leave the EU, do you think the European Union would be better off financially, worse off

financially or it would make no difference?

Question If the UK were to leave would EU work better, worse or would not change?

Question Would you like to see a similar referendum being held in your country?

Question If a similar referendum was held in your country? What would you vote?

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

RESULTS

4

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

Note : numbers have been rounded to ensure they all add up to 100%

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

64

6 30

POLAND

65 34

1

France

41 43 16

UK

*In the UK the actual referendum question was asked and the figures exclude those that “Will not vote”

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

5

62

13 25

FINLAND

Variations vs April 2016

63

15 22

NETHERLANDS

62

19 19

DENMARK

66

25 9

LUXEMBURG

79

15 6

GERMANY

62

24 14

CZECH REP.

+6 -7

+10 -1

+1 +2

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain Leave Don’t know

70

9 21

IRELAND

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

43 26 31

UK

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

6

In the upcoming referendum, do you think the UK will vote to... Remain Leave Don’t know

51 21 28

FINLAND

+3 =

48 26 26

POLAND

57 42

1

France

38 39 23

NETHERLANDS

41 30 29

DENMARK

53 30 18

LUXEMBURG

59 30

11

GERMANY

43 44 13

CZECH REP.

+9 -10

+4 +2

+12 -8

Variations vs April 2016

54

21 25

IRELAND

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

Better off financially Worse off financially It would make no difference Don’t know

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

7

4

50 23 23

FINLAND

-2 +2

4

47 27 22

POLAND

6

45 27 22

NETHERLANDS

4

48

20 28

DENMARK

3

46 43

8

CZECH REP.

8

40 26 26

UK

12 34 37

17

LUXEMBURG

= +8 -2

Variations vs April 2016

3

39 50

10

GERMANY

+3 -3 +1

-2 +2 +5

If the UK were to leave the EU, do you think the European Union would be… 10

50

18 22

IRELAND

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

8

5

40 37 18

POLAND

14 27 34 25

France

3

46 26 25

DENMARK

27 28 34 11

LUXEMBURG

9

42 24 25

FINLAND

Variations vs April 2016

If the UK were to leave would EU work better, worse or would not change? Would work better Would work worse Would not change Don’t know

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

9

31 50

19

FINLAND

25

64

11

POLAND

38 28 34

NETHERLANDS

32 53

15

DENMARKWould you like to see a similar referendum being held in your country? Yes No Don’t know

13

61

26

IRELAND

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

10

54 29 17

DENMARK

49 33

18

NETHERLANDS

If a similar referendum was held in your country? What would you vote? Remain Leave Don’t know

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

APPENDIX

11

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

DETAILED METHODOLOGY

12

UK Poland France Germany Denmark Finland Czech

Republic Luxemburg Netherlands Ireland

Fieldwork 19-23 May 2016

30 May 2016

26-31 May 2016

30-31 May 2016

25–30 May 2016

20–25 May 2016

21–27 May 2016

27–31 May 2016

27–31 May 2016

16 May-2 June 2016

Sample

Nationwide

representa-tive

sample of

1213 adults

aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1000

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1016

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1006

adults aged 18+

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1091

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1023

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 1200

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 868

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 981

adults aged 18 +

Nationwide

representa-tive sample

of 967

adults aged 18 +

Data collection

mode

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)

Face to face Interviews (CAPI)

TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016

3.14 X AXIS

6.65 BASE MARGIN

5.95 TOP MARGIN

4.52 CHART TOP

11.90 LEFT MARGIN

11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE

© TNS

TNS Public Affairs

TNS Public Affairs, a Kantar company improves decision-making in the public sphere through the application

of data, insight and strategic consultancy. We work with Governments, the public sector, non-governmental

organisations, institutions, political bodies, and corporations around the world, to help them deliver more

effective policy, services and communications to the public.

Our teams blend our expertise in public policy, service design, behavioural insight, and election research, and

draw upon our world class research design capability and data collection infrastructure. We drive

methodological innovation to deliver public value to our clients.