Future Truck Over the Horizon

Future Truck Looking Far Over the Horizon:

Fleet Managers’ Assessment

Of Future Equipment Needs:

2025 and Beyond

Ken Howden DOE

Jeff Seger Cummins Engine

Paul Menig Tech-I-M

Tom Stover Eaton

Presenters

SuperTruck Vehicle

Engine Transmission Fleet Survey

SuperTruck Initiative and 21st Century Truck Partnership

Ken Howden Director 21st Century Truck Partnership

Vehicle Technologies Office U.S. Department of Energy

Outline

•  Background

•  21st Century Truck Partnership

•  SuperTruck Initiative

Truck Fuel Use Projected to Increase •  Commercial transportation energy demand

projected to expand 70% worldwide (2010-2040) -  World fuel use for trucks will exceed fuel use for

all personal vehicles (2030) •  Fewer fuel/technology options in heavy-duty

-  Limited opportunity for electrification (vs. light-duty)

-  Technology hurdles for alternative fuels •  Limited opportunity at present for freight

mode shifts -  Doubling rail intermodal shipments increases

rail freight market share by only 0.3%

Source - ExxonMobil 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Need increased truck fuel efficiency to mitigate these projected increases

Truck Research Landscape – Issues and Needs

FUEL

USE

• Projected to increase for trucks • Need efficiency improvements

SALE

S • Truck sales are cyclical • Unpredictable corporate R&D

funding

R&D

• HD similar to LD in % of revenue invested in R&D, but fewer total dollars invested

REG

S

• Regulations impact all areas of trucking industry

• Much R&D investment to meet these regulations

NEED FOR INVESTMENT IN COLLABORATIVE

R&D FOR THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY

• Accelerate technology development

• Provide focus for R&D efforts

•  Information exchange forum

21st Century Truck Partnership

•  21CTP message –  Accelerate introduction of truck and bus technologies

to reduce fuel use, increase fuel diversity, operate more safely, increase reliability, meet future emissions standards, and maintain cost effectiveness

•  Research partnership between government and industry

•  Regulatory environment informs 21CTP needs/gaps/ barriers –  21CTP goals are longer-range/higher risk, and

complement near-term regulatory goals

The Partners

21CTP Research Focus Areas

•  Engine Systems •  Heavy-Duty Hybrid Systems •  Vehicle Power Demands •  Idle Reduction •  Safety •  Efficient Operations

New technical roadmap document presents goals and objectives for these areas

21CTP and SuperTruck •  National Academy of Sciences conducts periodic

reviews of 21CTP –  Review progress, provide recommendations for future

consideration –  Favorable results from most recent review – continue

partnership, refine goals and objectives •  Defined and implemented a new “SuperTruck”

initiative for improvement of freight efficiency at the vehicle system level –  Addresses previous NAS recommendations –  Four teams (all 21CTP members) –  Goal of 50% improvement in freight efficiency (ton-mi/gal) –  Received positive feedback on SuperTruck from NAS panel

Range of Heavy Vehicle Technologies

Trailer skirts Gap reduction Tractor/trailer integration (major redesign)

Combustion improvements Turbocompounding Waste heat recovery

New generation wide base single tires Tire compounds, casing, tread Central tire inflation

Hybridization Reduced drivetrain friction Automated manual transmissions

Electric accessories APU

Heavy-duty trucks use 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States. Fuel economy improvements in these trucks directly and quickly reduces petroleum consumption

Energy losses in Class 8 trucks and opportunities for efficiency

improvements

Highway 59% Urban 58%

Highway 2% Urban 7%

Highway 2% Urban 5% Highway 0%

Urban 16%

Highway 16% Urban 9%

Highway 21% Urban 5%

Class 8 Tractor-Trailer Energy Balance

SuperTruck Initiative

•  Goal: To develop and demonstrate a 50% improvement in overall freight efficiency on a heavy-duty Class 8 tractor-trailer measured in ton-miles per gallon and achieve 50% (and showing pathway to 55%) engine thermal efficiency

•  Cooperative R&D Agreement Awards:

–  Cummins Inc. with Peterbilt (ARRA Funded)

–  Daimler Trucks North America (ARRA Funded)

–  Navistar, Inc. –  Volvo Trucks North America

Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck Team •  Cummins – engine/contract lead •  Modine – cooling module •  Eaton –transmission •  Dana – drivetrain •  Bridgestone – fuel efficient tires •  Alcoa – wheels •  Delphi – solid oxide fuel cell APU •  Bergstrom – eSHVAC •  Garmin – 3D map and display •  Exa – CFD analysis •  Utility Trailer Manufacturing –

trailer •  US Xpress – end user

FUNDING: DOE Share $38.8M

Contractor Share $42.1M

Daimler SuperTruck Team •  DTNA – vehicle development •  Detroit Diesel – powertrain •  Daimler Research – waste heat •  Oregon State University –

composite frame analysis, fuel efficient routing

•  Schneider National – end user •  Wal-Mart – end user •  Great Dane – trailer •  ARC – aerodynamics •  Solar World Industries America

– auxiliary power

FUNDING: DOE Share $39.6M

Contractor Share $39.6M

Navistar SuperTruck Team •  Navistar – principal investigator,

vehicle systems integrator controls systems, engine & vehicle testing

•  Alcoa – lightweight frame & wheel materials

•  AT Dynamics – trailer aerodynamic devices

•  Meritor – hybrid powertrain, axles •  Behr America – cooling systems •  Michelin – low rolling resistance tires •  TPI – composite material structures •  Wabash National – trailer technologies •  Argonne National Lab – hybrid drive

simulation and controls & battery testing

•  Lawrence Livermore National Lab – aerodynamic testing

FUNDING: DOE Share $37.3M

Contractor Share $51.8M

Volvo SuperTruck Team •  Volvo Technology of America –

Lead •  Volvo Group Truck Technology –

aerodynamics, lightweighting, auxiliaries

•  Volvo Group Powertrain Engineering – engine, transmission, axles

•  Penn State University – engine simulation and testing

•  Grote - lighting •  Freight Wing - aerodynamics •  University of California Los

Angeles – Rankine waste heat recovery simulation

•  Ricardo, Inc. – Rankine system integration

•  Hendrickson - suspension •  Meritor - brakes

FUNDING: DOE Share $19M

Contractor Share $19M

Current SuperTruck Project Status

•  Teams are approaching the midpoint of their 4 to 5 year projects –  All teams on track to meet 50% engine efficiency goal –  One team demonstrated 51% engine efficiency in a

laboratory setting –  Aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction

have demonstrated freight efficiency improvement of greater than 20%

–  All teams expect to exceed the 50% freight efficiency improvement goal based on prototype vehicle evaluation completed to date

Summary •  21st Century Truck Partnership provides a forum

for industry and government participants to identify technical gaps and barriers, develop goals and synergize technology development.

•  SuperTruck Initiative combines government and industry resources to develop technical solutions for Class 8 truck freight efficiency that are innovative and suitable for commercialization.

Diversified Global Power Leader

Engines Power Generation

Components Distribution

Four Complementary Businesses

Future Trends in Fuel Efficiency Jeff Seger, Executive Director Cummins Inc.

Aftercooling

Diesel Particulate Filter

Selective Catalytic Reduction

Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation

Electronic Fuel Systems

1990 2000 2010 2020

CO2 NOx, PM

22

Evolution of Technology New Technologies

Air Handling & EGR

Fuel Systems

Combustion Aftertreatment (AT)

Electronic Controls

Waste Heat Recovery 23

Component Technology Integration

Looking Ahead

Base Engine

Aftertreatment

Waste Heat Recovery

Powertrain & Hybrids

24

25

Technologies for 50% Engine Thermal Efficiency

Base Engine & Aftertreatment   Piston bowl size & shape   Calibration optimization   Lower dP EGR loop   Turbocharger efficiency   AfterTreatment Efficiency

Parasitic Reductions   Variable flow lube pump   Cylinder kit friction   Cooling & fuel pump power

WHR system   EGR, Exhaust, Recuperator   Turbine Expander   Low GWP Refrigerant

SuperTruck Efficiency Improvement Results

Transmission Integration

•  Partner with all transmission suppliers in the industry •  Technology Trends

–  Down-speeding the engine –  Weight Reduction –  Increased data communication

26

Frequent Start/Stop

Seldom Start/Stop Duty Cycle

Fuel

Eco

nom

y B

enef

it

27

Hybrids Waste Heat Recovery

Fuel

Ene

rgy(

100%

)

Brake Power (42%)

Friction/ Misc Losses

(8%)

Heat Transfer (24%)

Exhaust Energy (26%)

Was

te

Hea

t Cooled EGR

Tailpipe Exhaust 200-600o C

200-750o C

Charge Air Cooling

Engine Cooling

20-60o C

80-100o C

Was

te

Hea

t Q

ualit

y Lo

w

28

Energy balance of engine shows that EGR and Exhaust gas stream energy are the primary sources for energy recovery.

Energy Balance and WHR Sources

28

29

Waste Heat Recovery (Line Haul)

Waste  Heat  Waste  Heat  

Waste  Heat  

Boiler  /  Superheater  

Pump   Working  Fluid  –  Closed  Cycle  

Condenser  

Power  Turbine  /Expander  

AddiConal    Power  

Exhaust  /  EGR  

WHR Fuel Economy Benefits

Savi

ngs

per

year

for

the

C

usto

mer

($)

$3,000  

$3,500  

$4,000  

$4,500  

$5,000  

$5,500  

$6,000  

$6,500  

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

$4.25  

$4.50  

$4.75  

$5.00  

$5.25  

Projected DF2 Price $ / gallon

WHR: Projected Customer Savings

30

Vehicle Integration

WHR Exhaust Heat Exchanger Exhaust

Aftertreatment

WHR Recuperator

WHR EGR Heat Exchanger

WHR Condensor

31

Powertrains of 2025 •  Fearless Forecasts •  Technology Trends •  Vendor’s View

Tom Stover Chief Technology Officer Eaton Vehicle Group

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Fearless Forecasts Make regulations a win-win

Upward pressure on fuel economy

EPA DOT Competition Energy Policy

Energy Costs

Fuel economy improvement of 30-40% over 2010 baseline

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Fearless Forecasts Natural, Diesel, Fuel Efficiency and Greenhouse gases

NG Availability/Cost

Diesel Energy Efficiency

NG will level with Diesel over time

Competition Profits

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Technology Trends: Trucks get more slippery

Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Rolling Resistance

Cruise power cut by 50%

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

•  Improvements in recoverable-energy, motors and batteries will make the hybrid system payback more attractive - increasing hybrids in most applications!

Technology Trends: Hybrid Potential

F.E.hyb = f(K.E./R.L., HPabs, HPmot, CAPbat, Duty Cycle)

More recoverable

-energy

Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)

Bigger, cheaper motors

Bigger, cheaper batteries + +

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Technology Trends: Fuel Economy

Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Advanced Controls •  Rolling Resistance •  Driver Control •  Hybrids

Engine •  Combustion •  Advanced Aftertreament •  Exh. Energy Recovery •  Downspeeding

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Technology Trends: Fuel Economy

Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Advanced Controls •  Rolling Resistance •  Driver Control •  Hybrids

Engine •  Combustion •  Advanced Aftertreament •  Exh. Energy Recovery •  Downspeeding

Automation is a fuel economy enabler

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Automated Transmissions

Downspeeding •  Enabled by

Automation •  Shift performance is

critical

Advanced Controls • GPS • Traffic density • V2V • V2I

Driver Controls •  Shift decisions •  Vehicle dynamics •  Power demand •  Safety

Advanced automated transmissions enable fuel economy

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

A Supplier’s View:

•  The independent suppliers have: – Scale – Ability to invest – Strong partnerships – Proven integration skill

•  We continue to provide optimized business solutions to our customers!

Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

Paul Menig

Survey Timeline •  2012

–  Q2 Development –  Q3 Pilot –  Q4 Approval and start

•  2013 –  Q1 Initial completion and first results –  Q2 Start of interviews and continued survey –  Q4 SAE ComVec Executive Panel

•  2014 –  Q1-4 Write position papers

•  2015 –  Q1 Future Truck position papers published

Survey Overview

•  22 Categories – bumper to trailer tail lights •  4 parts

–  Part 1 November 2012 75 respondents –  Part 2 December 2012 57 respondents –  Part 3 January 2013 43 respondents –  Part 4 February 2013 39 respondents

•  Request fleets to participate in all 4 parts

Respondent Overview

Maintenance 78%

Purchasing 13%

Other 9% Position

>25 years 61%

20-24 years 21%

10-19 years 13%

<10 years 5%

Time in Industry

Fleet Overview

<10 8%

10-100 35%

100-500 37%

500-1000 5%

>1000 15%

Tractors

<10 73%

10-50 11%

50-100 8%

100-250 3%

>250 5%

Trucks

<10 8%

10-100 28%

100-500 42%

500-1000 6%

>1000 16%

Trailers

Driver Type

<10 66%

10-100 17%

100-500 12%

500-1000 1%

>1000 4%

Owner/Operator

<10 8%

10-100 28%

100-500 42%

500-1000 6%

>1000 16%

Company

•  Usage percentage based on >50% of respondents

•  Other numbers, > 50% of respondents –  Absolutely Much more –  Most Likely More –  Probably About the same –  Maybe Less –  No Much Less

Basis for Statements

Likely = Absolutely + Most Likely > 50% of Respondents

Engine and Under Hood •  13 Liter Engine with 401-450HP •  Oil change interval > 60,000 miles •  Electric power steering likely •  > 25% usage of computer controlled air

compressor •  > 9 mpg

Hybrids & Alternative Fuels •  Diesel/electric hybrids, CNG, LNG

–  Each likely to be > 10%, maybe 25% share •  Biofuel above 16%, possibly above 25% •  Could something else power a vehicle?

– 23% say no •  Class 6/7 will stay diesel

After Treatment •  SCR a winner, but with only 28% •  72% believe SCR/EGR or something else •  40% believe first cleaning in <600K miles •  Waste heat recovery likely •  Vertical exhaust will be gone – NOT true •  Should be smaller

Transmissions & Clutches

•  Class 8 AMT’s above 60% usage •  Hydraulic automatic transmission increase

– Class 8 above 15% – Class 6-7 above 70%, rest AMT/manual

•  Clutch life > 500K miles

Axles and Wheel Ends •  >60% say axles and wheel ends will be lighter •  Aluminum hubs >60% usage •  Metal matrix composite drums >15% usage •  80% 10 lugs, 20% 8 or something else •  Torque retightening still needed •  Probably reduce 3 wheel systems to 1 •  Disc brake usage above 75%

Tires •  Wide based singles usage >40% •  Will last > 10-25% more than today

– Steer, drive, tandem, axle, trailer •  Probably have tread depth sensors •  Tractor Tire pressure monitor/control

>80% usage

Aerodynamics

•  Under vehicle air likely to be managed •  Trailer gap dynamic control likely •  Fifth wheel height dynamic is probable •  No external antennas likely •  Cameras replacing mirrors—maybe

– 42% say likely for hood mounted – 35% say likely for side view

Anti Idle Equipment •  Main engine will not be used •  Plug in unlikely •  Will APU be diesel powered?

– 29% believe battery powered – 25% believe fuel cell

Trailers •  38% believe in doubles/triples •  34% believe longer trailers •  39% believe more trailer axles •  65% believe separate trailer tracking •  58% believe lighter weight •  55% believe more connections to tractor •  Tire pressure monitor/control >80% usage •  Blind spot/backup monitors >40% usage

Durability/Reliability •  Today – 54% keep more than 6 years •  Tomorrow – 61% keep more than 6 years

– Less than 4 years will see an increase •  More reliability in 2015 •  Windshields will last 1-2 years

Today Tomorrow

Cab Interior

•  62% say probably full width cab •  76% say sleepers likely to have bunks •  Drivers may be more fit than today •  96% say more electric-powered devices

likely •  Sleepers more than 40% of sales

Instrumentation •  76% say OEM’s likely to integrate & eliminate 3rd

party controls, but will not control fleet management

•  Multiple round gauges may be normal –  >80% expect programmable, flat panel, color, touch

screens •  CB’s still may be used •  78% say satellite radio likely to be used •  69% say more steering wheel/column mounted

controls likely

Safety & Driver Assistance

•  >80% usage of Lane Departure •  >80% radar collision warning/mitigation •  >60% usage of blind spot monitors •  >40% usage of cameras monitoring driver •  Single supplier integration probably

– Yet vertical integration likely

Connected Vehicle

•  Vehicle to Infrastructure Communications likely •  Toll tags will be replaced, but more toll tags

expected •  Vehicle to Vehicle Communications probably •  Driverless vehicle platooning a maybe •  Wireless communications tractor to trailer likely

Electrical/Electronic •  Ethernet likely •  24 Volts is probable •  More computers and more data links •  Fewer batteries -- maybe •  77% would likely pay for better connectors •  All LED lighting absolutely

Service Tools & Technicians

•  Engine repair will be somewhat harder •  Handheld computers likely to replace carts •  Cameras likely to transmit images to

experts •  36% mostly/all service at dealerships •  Software tools will be mostly integrated

Roads & Infrastructure

•  More tolled highways/bridges •  Truck HOV lanes likely •  More inner city charges •  Investment to rebuild infrastructure likely •  Ton-mile tax will likely still be with us •  Higher fuel taxes •  Probably on-board weighing replaces stations

Regulations •  CAFE for trucks will be harder •  Longer/heavier vehicles likely allowed •  Absolutely more safety regulations •  Likely will allow cameras to replace mirrors •  Wireless roadside inspection likely •  Driver distraction regulations likely •  Standard size/weight in Americas maybe •  Federal laws superceding state probably

Fleet Management

•  OEM’s maybe will control •  More toll tags likely

– Tolls paid by system likely •  Highly likely to provide driver feedback on

fuel economy/safety •  Off duty entertainment and connection to

friends and family likely •  Navigation with traffic and re-routing

absolutely

Logistics & Shippers

•  60% say likely 9PM to 6AM deliveries •  Intermodal will increase •  Electric grid powered vehicles in cities

maybe •  Some other form of freight movement?

– 21% no, 39% maybe, 40% more positive

Parts Availability & Sourcing

•  More proprietary parts •  Purchase 10% dealer only, 45% mostly

dealers, 45% dealer and 3rd party •  Service 8% mostly dealer, 79% dealer and

own shop, 13% mostly own shop •  Overnight delivery expected

–  If not, then 1 day

Next Steps

•  Get more fleet participation in survey •  Begin more in depth interviews

– Fleets, Government, OEM’s, Tier-1 Suppliers •  SAE ComVec 2013 Executive Panel •  Get other study groups involved