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GLOBAL WIND POWERMichael Totten, Conservation International
TNC Wind Power WorkshopJan. 24, 2007
Normative Criteria1. Optimizing the delivery of efficient energy services at or near the point of
use as the key goal, rather than simply expanding ever-larger resource supplies shipped over ever-longer distances at ever-higher expense;
2. Environmentally and ecologically friendly and avoiding adverse impacts (to terrestrial, freshwater, marine ecosystems);
3. Economically attractive now, with massive growth opportunity in the foreseeable future (speed facilitated by well-crafted incentives, R&D, policies and regulations);
4. Low-risk, risk-resistant and risk-manageable — against inflation, price spikes, sudden disruptions, acts of nature or malicious attack;
5. Resilient — if the energy system (water, transport) fails, it fails gracefully, not catastrophically, and is rapidly recoverable;
6. Enhancing climate, air and water quality;7. Resulting in minimal adverse impacts and capable of further reducing
those externalities through continuous innovation and best practices; and8. Robust experience curves — potential for significant, ongoing
improvements in cost, performance, reduced footprint, generation of positive externalities, etc., through ongoing R&D and cumulative learning experiences.
50 to 100X more energy than converted into biomass by
all plants on earth.
1 to 2% of the sun’s energy is converted
into wind energy.
WIND
Global Power Investment will Misallocate Half of $48 Trillion – to the detriment of customers
TWh(billion kWh)
coal
oil
natural gas
nuclear
large hydro
other renews
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Projected World Electricity Generation 2030
• Over 30-year lifespan of these power plants consumers will pay $48 trillion (at 5¢/kWh)
• Alternatively, investing in lower cost efficiency improvements in the manufacturing of high efficiency appliances, consumer electronics, lights, motors, buildings, etc. could save $24 trillion of this projected growth
• Money left in customers wallets by avoiding higher utility bills
• Money spent on retail purchases of a myriad of high efficiency devices
• Dramatic reduction of CO2 emissions (potentially one-fourth of 2030 global energy emissions) as an ancillary co-benefit of efficiency gains
Source: Intl Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004
Less Utility Power Plants through More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
$
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per yearAccrues $67.5 million annual savingsSaves 45 billion gallons watersAvoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge
Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coalEliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Avoided Emissions & Savings
[1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, Twww.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT
Biggest Retail EPP of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide – over 7 trillion kWh per year.
Motors consume 60% of China’s total electricity, 50% in USA.
Efficiency savings of 30% or more highly cost-effective.
2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.
$240 billion savings per decade, freed up from the utility sector by capturing this super mega-EPP in manufacturing facilities.
$200 to $400 billion savings per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
OutcomesDemand - Facts
Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Megadamus negavitae7% of total global GHG emissions, rising
to 15% given potential expansion
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
DAMReservoir
Area (km2)
Generating Capacity
(MW)
Km2/MW (vs
wind 0.1)
Emissions: Hydro
(MtCO2-eq/yr)
Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2-eq/yr)
Emissions Ratio
Hydro/Gas
Tucuruí 24330 4240 5.7 8.60 2.22 3.87
Curuá-Una 72 40 1.8 0.15 0.02 7.50
Balbina 3150 250 12.6 6.91 0.12 57.58
Freshwater Fish Species Threatened
% Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals
or birds in the USA
NUCLEAR POWER?
The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal
1) Ever-present target of nuclear facilities for military or terrorist attack;
2) Dual civilian-military nature of a nuclear reactor;
3) Proliferation of weapons-grade material;4) Diversion of uranium fuel for military or
terrorist use in fabricating atomic bombs;5) Contaminant fuel wastes that remain
radioactive for millennia; and,6) Generating systems that can fail
catastrophically, with disastrous human health and ecological consequences lasting for generations, and economic impacts lasting for centuries
Unfortunately, uranium-generated electricity carries some intrinsic downsides that are inherently intractable:
Displacing coal use worldwide by 2100 would require constructing a 100 MW nuclear reactor every 10 hours for the entire century. It would require reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium for use in breeder reactors by 2050. This would produce 5 million kilograms of plutonium per year, equal to 500,000 atomic bombs, annually circulating in global commerce.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Global Wind Speed extrapolated to 80 meter heightaveraged over all days of 2000 at sounding locations with >20 valid readings.
Source: Archer & Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Journal Of Geophysical Research, V. 110, 2005.
72 TW global wind power generated at locations with mean annual wind speeds 6.9 m/s at 80 m. 20% captured could satisfy 100% of world energy
demand for all purposes, and >7X world electricity needs (in 2000).
Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)www.gwec.net
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
For context: 18,000 TWh of global electricity generated in 2005 from all sources, including 2,800 TWh from nuclear and 2,800 from hydro.
124 TWh
Global Cumulative Wind Power 1995-2005(MW & TWh)
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Global Cumulative Wind Power 2005-2050
6,900 TWh
5,200 TWh
2,600 TWh
340 TWh
124 TWh
7,900 TWh
Advanced Scenario Assumptions: 20% annual growth, progress ratio 0.90 to 0.98, global capacity factor 30%, 1/3rd of global electricity (w/ high efficiency).
(MW & TWh)
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Regional Breakdown: Advanced Scenario [GW]
INVESTMENT: By 2030, annual investment value of the wind energy market would be $110 billion.
GENERATION COSTS: By 2020, a good site would be 4 to 5 ¢/kWh, and a low average wind site 5 to 7.7 ¢/kWh.
EMPLOYMENT: By 2030, 1.4 million jobs, and 2.8 million by 2050.
CO2 SAVINGS: By 2030, 3.1 billion tons per year, increasing to 4.7 billion tons per year by 2050. [Total CO2 in 2006 ~8 billion tons]
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Wind Power Advanced Scenario
In 2005 China reset 2020 wind target to 30 GW. An increase of 10 GW from the goal of just a year earlier. Raises annual growth rate from 20% to 24%.
Wind industry experts are confident that 170 GW is achievable by 2020, and 330 GW by 2030. The required 39% annual growth rate is feasible, they argue, IF utility pricing policies can be reformed.
CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario
NREL wind mapping of vast areas of eastern China at 50-m height found 4% of the mapped LAND area could support 580 GW at a conservatively estimated 5 MW/km2(good-to-excellent wind resources).
NREL estimates windy MARINE sections could support >660 GW, and 4X this figure Including moderate wind resources.
More studies are required to accurately assess the wind potential, considering shipping lanes, water depth, existing transmission grid and accessibility.
CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario
Wind Energy ATLAS of Brazil, Atlas do Potencial Eólico Brasileiro, Antonio Leite de Sá, Electric Energy Research Center – CEPEL, DEWI (German Institute of Wind Energy), Magazine 19, Aug. 2001. Wind Economics, CBEE, www.eolica.com.br/index_ing.html
Simulations, performed in 1999 by CEPEL (Brazil’s Electric Energy Research Center), estimate a Brazilian wind potential of 144 GW.
This assumes average wind velocities of more than 7m/s, only on-shore, using wind turbines of 600 kW. The Brazilian Center of Wind Energy (CBEE) indicates wind power generation is between 4 and 8.4 ¢/kWh.
Yet, only 28 MW installed by 2005, and 200 MW by 2006.
Brazil Advanced Wind Potential
Rio Grande do Sul
Wind Energy ATLAS of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Secretariat of Energy, Mines and Communications
Brazil Advanced Wind Potential
Along the 630 km coastline of Rio Grande do Sul there are 986 km2 of sand and dunes, fanned by intense and constant winds.
Also inland, many winds come together with the Minuano to create one of the most promising sources of wind power in Brazil.
Between 55GW and 115 GW is available for areas with winds >7.0m/s, at heights 75m and 100m, respectively.
winter
springsummer
fall
Rio Grande do Sul
The 55-115 GW of estimated wind power for Rio Grande do Sul is relatively high. The total Brazilian hydro resources (inventoried plus estimated) is 143 GW, and Brazil’s total installed capacity was 77 GW in 2001.
Source: Rio Grande do Sul Wind Atlas, http://www.semc.rs.gov.br/atlas/ENGandiag.htm
Rio Grande do Sul Wind Potential
US wind power capacity end of 2002 (MW)
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Of the practically exploitable U.S. wind resources of moderate or better quality, 95% are located in the sparsely populated 12 Great Plains states, where the generation potential is 3X total U.S. electricity generation.
Figures of MeritGreat Plains
1,200,000 mi2
100% U.S. electricity400,00 wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total Wind farm area 37,500 mi2
34,000 mi2 still available farming-ranching-prairie
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%
-
Although agriculture controls about 70% of the land area in all three sub-regions of the Great Plains (Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas), the contribution of agriculture to the Gross Regional Product in very small. Agriculture is very important in the region for many reasons, but it is not a major player in the regional economy compared to other industries. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
1. Unsuitable – lands where development is prohibited (Appalachian Trail corridors, for example) or "high conflict" areas
2. Less than ideal – federal or state conservation lands rated "medium conflict"
3. Conditionally favorable –Conservation or open space lands rated "low conflict," or open space or private lands rated "medium conflict":
4. Most favorable – Unrestricted private land and "low conflict" areas
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
[Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
2 additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered
Droughts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Wind turbine Solar-electric combined cycle coal-fired nuclear
Water Consumption (liters per MWh)
Water Use in Energy Production