To Gabon or Not to Gabon

A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy

by Pablo Suarez , Ph. D.

(Caldeira & Wood 2008)

We Sho

uld

EXPECT

CONFU

SION…

A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable

Info

Audience: Passive Role

?

Game Time: Snap!

LET’SPLAY!

SNAP !

0. Form Duos

1. Create deck of (imaginary) cards

2. Flip cards simultaneously and ‘say’ your card

3. If same card, say ‘Snap!’ ASAP

4.Observe your mind at work

Designed by Paul Z. Jackson(Applied Improv Network)

Documenting your “Snap!” Cards

Form Trios

Create 3 cards that you’d want to add to deck Up to 3 words per card (‘Cat’, ‘Black Panther’, ‘Southern Right Whale’)

Select one card per table

Most & Least ‘snapped’ cards: Eliminated

Among remaining cards, Top & Bottom ‘snapping’ cards win

desi

gned

by

Pabl

o

Suarez

&

Janot

Mendl

er

de

Suarez

(Red

Cross

/

Red

Crescent

Cli

mate

Centre)

for

the

Worl

d

Bank

(Offi

ce

of

the

Chi

ef

Econom

ist

for

Sustai

nabl

e

Devel

opment)

Decisions for the DecadeHow to make smart long-term decisions?

?All Partic

ipate!

(...expect confusion...)

1. Simplification of realityNo challenging the rules!

2. Decisions are individualBut team consultations welcome

3. We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years

BASIC GAME RULES

Losers: Most red stones (humanitarian crises)

Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises(if tied: Most beans for prosperity)

Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ Points

… but eliminated if:• Player with most crises is in your Table/Region• Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank

WINNERS & LOSERS

DEVELOPMENT Investment

Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

DECADE DEV CRISIS

1

2

3

4

TOTAL

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,

But only if no Crisis by end of decade

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

Probability Distribution Functionof Precipitation

(based on the Historical Record)

= Drought

= Flood

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,

But only if no Crisis

DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

Let’s protect against 1 drought…

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,

But only if no Crisis

DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,

But only if no Crisis

DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

If just 1 drought occurs in the decade……you gain 9 Prosperity Points!

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,

But only if no Crisis

DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

But, what if we had a second drought?Not enough protection!

…triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!

Decade 2:

Our CLIMATE is CHANGING…

= Drought

= Flood

1

6 7 8

NEGOTIATINGClimate Engineering Research

By Half-Room, then Sector ( .Edu .Gov .Org )

Your Goal: As much ‘Completed Research’ as possible in 3 minutes

A ‘Completed Research’ is:a special post-it notewith your Sector’s name (“.Edu” “.Gov” “.Org”) written on it with a special pencilplaced on your Team’s tablebefore the deadline

Decade 3:

Applying Climate Research

3 ‘Top Research’ tables: Select one representative per trioCome to the front to examine climate

projections (bags)

You’ll have ~7 minutes to select representatives, study the research, disseminate knowledge, discuss plans, etc (before investment deadline)

Decade 3 (cont.):

Deploying Geoengineering?

The Global Climate may continue to change…

Decade 4:

If you have enough Research + Prosperity:

You may be able to deploy Solar Radiation Management

Come to the front to examine models and choices

NEW MODEL for climate change...The cone can land 3 ways:

Normal

A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable

Info

Audience: Passive Role

?

A Model of the Gameplay Experience

Info Consequences

Decisions

Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

(Caldeira & Wood 2008)

“Externalities”? Two science-based predictions

1. How will the most vulnerable help make geoengineering decisions?

2. Who will pay for humanitarian work in a geoengineered world?

1.Active learning (Peer-to-peer, “Aha!” moments UNFCCC)

2.Serious, fun engagement (Emotions matter! RockFound)

3.Data collection on decisions (In real time GEC)

4.Optimization platform (illiteracy no problem)

WWW.CLIMATECENTRE.ORG

Gameplay beats Powerpoint

with University Students

with IPCC Lead Authors

at the White House

WHY GAMES for Actionable Info:

HUH?AHA!

Problem /

Context

Risks

Options

Decisions

Actions

Evaluation

Engage Stakeholde

rs

Omenn, 2001

Risk Management Framework

Concrete experiences (doing)

Observation & Reflection (reviewing)

Formation of abstract concepts (concluding /

learning)

Testing implications

for new situations (planning / trying

out)

The Experiential Learning Cycle

Kolb, 1984

T H A

N K

Y O U

!

! !

DEVELOPMENT Investment

Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade

FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean

DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

DECADE DEV CRISES

1

2

3

4

TOTAL

Player DEV CRISES

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

TOTALPlayer with most Crises

2211 33

5544

66

88

77

99

Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises(if tied: Most beans for prosperity)

Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ … but eliminated if:•Player with most crises is in your Table/Region•Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank

2211 33

5544

66

88

77

99

Management of Regional Aid Pool: First to ask for a disaster-averting bean, gets itUnless:•Majority delegates mgment to ‘Aid’ playeror•‘Standard Operating Procedure’ is agreed

Regional “Aid” PoolInvest in humanitarian system

to help avert crises

DECADE Starting Budget

Crises Averted

1

2

3

4

TOTAL