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Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig....

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SECTION I: MACRO Fig. 1: Gold and U.S. Real Rates Fig. 2: Fed Balance Sheet (US$B) Fig. 3: Gold and ECB Real Rates Fig. 4: ECB Balance Sheet (euro B) Fig. 5: Gold and Chinese Real Rates Fig. 6: PBoC Balance Sheet (RMB B) TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P. GOLD MONITOR 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 70 76 82 88 94 00 06 12 -8 -4 0 4 8 Gold US Real Rates (Inverted) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Gold ECB Real Rates (Inverted) 1,000 5,000 9,000 13,000 92 96 00 04 08 12 -25 -15 -5 5 Gold Chinese Real Rates (Inverted) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 94 97 00 03 06 09 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 99 02 05 08 11
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Page 1: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

SECTION I: MACRO

Fig. 1: Gold and U.S. Real Rates Fig. 2: Fed Balance Sheet (US$B)

Fig. 3: Gold and ECB Real Rates Fig. 4: ECB Balance Sheet (euro B)

Fig. 5: Gold and Chinese Real Rates Fig. 6: PBoC Balance Sheet (RMB B)

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

GOLD MONITOR

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

70 76 82 88 94 00 06 12

-8

-4

0

4

8Gold

US Real Rates (Inverted)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

99 01 03 05 07 09 11

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Gold

ECB Real Rates (Inverted)

1,000

5,000

9,000

13,000

92 96 00 04 08 12

-25

-15

-5

5

GoldChinese Real Rates (Inverted)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

94 97 00 03 06 09

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

02 04 06 08 10 12

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

99 02 05 08 11

Page 2: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

2

Fig. 7: The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets Fig. 8: Gold and M2 (US$T; Fed, ECB, PBoC)

Source: Bianco Research

Fig. 9: U.S. M1 (YoY %) Fig. 10: U.S. M2 (YoY %)

Fig. 11: ECB M1 (YoY %) Fig. 12: ECB M2 (YoY %)

Fig. 13: PBoC M1 (YoY %) Fig. 14: PBoC M2 (YoY %)

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0

4

8

12

16

99 02 05 08 110

4

8

12

99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

96 99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

96 99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

99 01 03 05 07 09 110

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Combined M2 (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

0

5

10

15

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Page 3: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

3

Fig. 16: Electrical Consumption Fig. 15: Inflation

U.S.

(May) Euro area

(May) China (May)

Headline CPI 1.7% 2.4% 3.0%

Core CPI 2.3% 1.6% N/A

Shadowstats 9.3% N/A N/A

MIT Billion Prices 1.5% N/A N/A

Source: Mark Lundeen, Barron’s Fig. 17: Central Banks Holdings of Gold (tonnes) Fig. 18: Emerging Asia’s Share of Gold Demand Source: World Gold Council Source: GMO, GFMS, World Gold Council, Bloomberg Fig. 19: Central Banks Net Purchases (tonnes) Fig. 20: Notable Transactions in Q1 Source: World Gold Council Source: World Gold Council

Country Tonnes TransactionPhilippines 35.1 Purchased

Mexico 16.6 Addition Turkey 14.3 Addition

Kazakhstan 14.2 Purchased

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Page 4: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

4

Fig. 21: Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP Fig. 22: Interest Expense on U.S. Public Debt

*Note: FY12 figures only include interest expense through May Source: Meridian Macro Research LLC

Source: Ned Davis Research

Fig. 23: The Debt Ceiling Fig. 24: Quality Spread and Gold Source: Bianco Research

Interest Expense (US$B) Implied Interest RateFY06 406 5.1% FY07 430 5.1% FY08 451 5.0% FY09 383 3.8% FY10 414 3.5% FY11 454 3.4% FY12 272 2.8%

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

2%

4%

99 03 07 110

1,000

2,000

Gold (RHS)

Moody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Baa (LHS)

Page 5: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

5

Fig. 25: Global Forex Accumulation Fig. 26: Annualized Monthly Growth in

(12 month sum, $B) Treasury and Agency Holdings under Custody ($B)

Source: MacroMavens, LLC Fig. 27: China Net Purchases Fig. 28: China Recycling of LT U.S. Securities (Annual $B) Purchases of U.S. Securities as % Forex Accumulation Source: MacroMavens, LLC Source: MacroMavens, LLC

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-25%

25%

75%

125%

175%

225%

275%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-200

200

600

1000

1400

1800

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Page 6: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

6

SECTION II: GOLD Fig. 29: GFMS Gold Supply and Demand (tonnes)

Source: AngloGold Ashanti, GFMS

Fig. 30: Market Cap of Above Ground Gold/ U.S. Financial Assets Source: Tocqueville Asset Management

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

20%22%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1934 1982 Q1'12

Page 7: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

7

Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type Source: World Gold Council Source: FactSet Research Systems Fig. 33: Google Searches for: “Gold Bubble”

Fig. 34: “Gold Investment”

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

GLD

Other

Non-institutional, 59.1%

Broker, 7.6%

Hedge Fund, 9.2%

Investment Adviser, 19.9%

Insurance Company, 0.1%Mutual Fund, 2.4%

Pension Fund, 1.0%

Private Banking, 0.7%

Page 8: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

8

Fig. 35: Ned Davis Research Gold Sentiment Composite

Fig. 36: Hulbert Newsletter Gold Sentiment Index

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

Page 9: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

9

Fig. 37: Market Vane Bullish Consensus

Source: Market Vane

Fig. 38: Bernstein’s Daily Sentiment Index Source: Bernstein’s DSI

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100Market Vane (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

06 07 08 09 10 11 11500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100DSI (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

Page 10: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

10

Fig. 39: COMEX Gold Futures Fig. 40: COMEX Gold Futures

Open Interest (tonnes) Activity (tonnes) Fig. 41: Commercial Net Shorts Fig. 42: Gold

as a % of Open Interest vs. Continuous Commodity Index Source: The McClellan Market Report

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1,200

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

Gold (RHS)

Net Hedgers/ Commercials (LHS)

Net Large Speculators (LHS)

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

Open Interest (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Gold

CCI

Page 11: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

11

SECTION III: MINING EQUITIES Fig. 43: XAU and HUI as a Ratio of Gold Fig. 44: GSA’s Gold Stocks’ Valuation Fig. 45: Net Fund Flows for Lipper’s Equity Precious Metals Fund Universe ($B)* Fig. 46: Market Cap of Van Eck Gold Equity ETFs ($B) Fig. 48: Cash Costs and Margin *Note: 1H12 figures do not include June. Fig. 47: Gold Miners Dividend Payout Ratio*

*Universe includes: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, HMY , Source: Scotia Capital, GFMS AUY, AEM, IAG, CG, EGO, and GOLD

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

XAU/Gold

HUI/Gold

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1H06

1H07

1H08

1H09

1H10

1H11

1H12

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

0%

20%

40%

60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E

Page 12: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

12

Fig. 49: Total Cash Outflow ($/oz) Fig. 50: Returns on Capital* Note: Operating = Operating costs + Corporate costs + Exploration costs +Royalties; *Universe: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, Capital = Ongoing + Expansion capital; Other = Finance costs and Other cash outflows HMY, AEM, IAG, GOLD, HL, BGO, CBJ, GLG, LIHR, Source: Gold Fields MDG, PDG, HM, NDY, ASL Fig. 51: Average Discovery Cost ($/oz) Fig. 52: Equity Capital Issued by Gold Miners Source: Gold Fields, MinEx Consulting, MEG

Source: RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets Fig. 53: Cost of Acquisitions in the Gold Sector

Source: RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

4%

8%

12%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

50

100

150

$B of Equity Issued (LHS)

# of Financings (RHS)

0

100

200

300

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Acquisition Cost ($/oz; LHS)

Acquisition Cost as a Ratio of Gold (RHS)

Page 13: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

13

Fig. 54: Gold Price Discounted by the Market Fig. 55: Consensus Forecast Gold Prices ($/oz) Source: Assorted N.A. Brokerage Research Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 56: NAV Premiums- Senior & Intermediate Producers (N.A.)

Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 57: P/CF – Senior Producers (N.A.)

Source: BMO Capital Markets

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2,000

Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 LT

2011

2010

2009

2007

2008

2012

Page 14: Tocqueville Gold Monitor 2Q12 · 2017. 1. 19. · 7 Fig. 31: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 32: Ownership of GLD by Type 3,000 Company, 0.1% Adviser, 19.9% Source: World Gold

14

John Hathaway Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director © Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. July 2, 2012 The information provided in this Appendix should not be construed as investment advice. No representation is made concerning the accuracy of cited data, nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion will be realized. References to stocks, securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or by principals, employees and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville. We periodically reprint charts or quote extensively from articles published by other sources. When we do, we provide appropriate source information. The quotes and material that we reproduce are selected because, in our view, they provide an interesting, provocative or enlightening perspective on current events. Their reproduction in no way implies that we endorse any part of the material used or the investment recommendations that may be published on those sites.

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.


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